Fundamental Analysis of NZD/USD for October 19, 2017

NZD/USD has been impulsively bearish today as the pair broke below the key support area of 0.7050 recently. NZD has been quite strong amid recent economic reports which helped the currency to sustain the gain against USD. Nevertheless, today without any high impact economic reports the market just moved over 100 pips downwards engulfing the recent few days bullish price action in one go. Today, there are no economic reports from New Zealand, but tomorrow Visitor Arrivals report is due that previously was at -0.3% and Credit Card Spending report will be also released which previously was at 6.4%. There were no forecasts about this data, so the news can go either way, but certain speculation is against NZD. On the USD side, today Unemployment Claims report was published with a better-than-expected figure of 222k from the previous figure of 244k which was expected to be at 240k and Philly Fed Manufacturing report also came out with an upbeat figure of 27.9 from the previous reading of 23.8 which was expected to be at 21.9. Moreover, US CB Leading Index is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 0.1% from the previous value of 0.4% and Natural Gas Storage is expected to decrease to 59B from the previous figure of 87B. To sum up, despite positive economic reports from New Zealand, USD has dominated the pair with its impulsive gains today. This indicates that the price is set to proceed downward in the coming days. As the US economic reports this week have been quite positive, the pair is expected to move quite impulsively towards the next support level in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently residing below the important level of 0.7050. In the coming days certain retracement towards 0.7050 is expected before price moves down towards 0.6850 support level. As the price remains below the dynamic level of 20 EMA and 0.7170 level with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for October 19, 2017

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USD/CHF is under pressure and expected to continue the downside movement. The downward momentum is further reinforced by both declining 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index is bearish, calling for another downside.

To conclude, below 112.85, look for a new challenge with targets at 112.10 and 111.85 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a long position is recommended above 112.85 with a target at 113.15.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 112.85, Take Profit: 112.10

Resistance levels: 113.15, 113.45 and 113.75 Support Levels: 112.10, 111.85, 111.25

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GBP/USD analysis for October 19, 2017

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 1.3128. According to the 15M time – frame, I found rejection from pivot resistance 1 at the price of 1.3230 in the background, which is a sign that intraday sellers are in control. Most recently, I found a broken intraday rising wedge and rejection from pivot at the price of 1.3185, which is a sign that buying looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportuntiies. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.3114 (S2) and 1.3087 (S3, extreme intraday target).

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3230

R2: 1.3260

R3: 1.3302

Support levels:

S1: 1.3158

S2: 1.3112

S3: 1.3087

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for October 19, 2017

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USD/CHF is under pressure and expected to trade in a lower range. The pair is trading within the bearish channel, which confirmed a negative outlook. The relative strength index lacks upward momentum. Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited. The U.S. dollar pared gains against other major currencies following a four-day winning streak.

Hence, below 0.9815, look for a further decline with targets at 0.9725 and 0.9705 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot points indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 0.9815, Take Profit: 0.9725

Resistance levels: 0.9805, 0.9835, and 0.9865

Support levels: 0.9745, 0.9730, and 0.9700

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for October 19, 2017

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Our both targets which we predicted in yesterday's analysis have been hit. After hitting 149.30, the price turned down sharply and now it is expected to continue its downside movement. The pair is expected to continue its sharp decline toward the support at 147.80 while being supported by the descending 20-period moving average.

As intraday bearishness is maintained by well-directed technical indicator (20-period, 50-period moving averages, and relative strength index), the pair is expected to target 147.40 upon reaching 147.80.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a long position is recommended above 149.05 with the target at 149.40.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 149.05, Take Profit: 147.80

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates long positions; and when it is below the pivot points, it indicates short positions. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 149.40, 149.75 and 150.35

Support levels: 147.80, 147.40, and 146.80

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USD/JPY analysis for October 19, 2017

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Recently, the USD/JPY has been trading sideways at the price of 112.55. Anyway, according to the 15M time - frame, I found testing of pivot support 1 around the price of 112.36, which is a sign that selling looks risky. There is a hidden bullish divergence on the stochastic oscilator, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportuntiies. Upward targets are set at the price of 113.28 (R1) and 113.60 (R2).

Resistance levels:

R1: 113.28

R2: 113.60

R3: 114.18

Support levels:

S1: 112.36

S2: 111.80

S3: 111.45

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Bitcoin analysis for October 19, 2017

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading sideways at the price of $5.628. At a recent State Duma Financial Market Committee meeting, an initiative to create a "crypto-detective agency" in Russia was proposed. This specialized agency will primarily collect all information on Russian companies planning to launch an initial coin offering (ICO) as well as create a registry of them. Intraday technical looks bearish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 30M time frame, I found rejection from pivot resistance 1 at the price of $5.691, which is a sign that buying looks risky. There is an overbought Stochastic oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $5.397 (pivot), $5.200 (S1) and $4.900 (S2).

Support/Resistance

$5.691 – Pivot resistance 1

$5.397 – Pivot level

$5.200 – Pivot support 1

$4.900 – Pivot support 2

$4.702 – Pivot support 3

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Global macro analysis for 19/10/2017

Global macro analysis for 19/10/2017:

Australia's September labor report was another upside surprise, with 19.8k jobs growth and a further fall in the unemployment rate to 5.5% from 5.6% in August (consensus: 15k and 5.6%). Part-time jobs rose by 13.7k, almost same rise as in August, while there was a sharp slowdown in the full-time jobs to 6.1k from 39.5k. The participation rate was steady at 65.2%. Steady part-time jobs growth and participation rate indicate that even new entrants to the labor force are finding it easy to obtain work. However, strong jobs growth needs to translate into private consumption, which hasn't been the case so far. A dismal retail sales growth in August reduced the likelihood of an early RBA rate hike and this point of view was reiterate in the recent RBA Meeting Minutes.

According to the Minutes, the RBA members noted that the Australian economy had grown by 0.8% in the June quarter, in line with the Bank's forecast. Moves towards higher interest rates in other economies were a welcome development but did not have mechanical implications for the setting of policy in Australia, where the timing of any changes in interest rates would be dependent on developments in domestic economic conditions.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market bounced from the black trendline support around the level of 0.7808, but no new high was made so far. The move up was capped at the level of 0.7875 and now the price is moving sideways. The upward momentum is not increasing too much which might indicate a possible move down to test the level of 0.7808 again.

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Global macro analysis for 19/10/2017

Global macro analysis for 19/10/2017:

In New Zealand, The Labor Party will form a cabinet with the support of the NZ First. The NZD/USD rate is almost 1.5% lower, so this violent reaction of the market is a sign that investors strongly favor the coalition of the Conservative Party with NZ First instead. Moreover, the sudden turn of the events on the New Zealand political scene turns out to be a gigantic surprise. New Zealand First (NZF) decision to enter the coalition with the Labour Party (LP) was announced by the leader of this group Winston Peters. As he explained, NZF came to a decision between - as he put it - "changed status quo and change" and decided to move towards change. The LP and NZF coalition will also be supported by the Green Party of New Zealand (GPA).

The Prime Minister for the 52nd New Zealand Parliament will be Jacinda Ardern, the Leader of the Labour Party. The 37-year-old Ardern, who led the Labor Party on August 1, will be the third woman to serve as head of New Zealand Government and the youngest leader in recent years. Due to its young age, the rapid rise in popularity and charisma is compared to Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and French President Emmanuel Macron.

Let's now take a look at the NZD/USD technical picture at the daily time frame. After the political news hit the financial markets, the reaction was very strong. The price broke through the technical support zone between the levels of 0.7089 - 0.7058 and is currently trading below this levels. The next support is seen at the level of 0.6970, but the price might first bounce from the golden channel line support around the level of 0.7000. The oversold market conditions support the short-term recovery bias.

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Fundamental Analysis of AUD/USD for October 19, 2017

AUD/USD has been quite volatile and corrective recently residing between the range of 0.7750 to 0.7900 area. Australia posted quite positive economic reports today which helped the national currency to gain over USD but the gain was not quite impulsive as expected. Today Australia's Employment Change report was published with better than expected figure of 19.8k from the previous figure of 53.0k which was forecasted to be at 14.1k. At the same time, the Unemployment Rate decreased to 5.5% which was expected to be unchanged at 5.6%. The United States will publish the Unemployment Claims report today which is expected to decrease to 240k from the previous figure of 243k. If the result comes better than expected, then it will help the currency to gain momentum against AUD. Along with this economic report, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 21.9 from the previous figure of 23.8. Furthemore, the CB Leading Index report is expected to decrease to 0.1% from the previous value of 0.4% while the Natural Gas Storage report is also expected to decrease to 59B from the previous figure of 87B. Though USD has been struggling to keep with the AUD recently due to worse economic reports, but currently it is anticipated that USD has good probability to gain over AUD soon. Most of the US economic reports are expected to show negative result today but if the results come better than expected, then we might see impulsive bearish pressure in the pair taking out the recent support levels and proceeding further downwards in the future. AUD have been quite positive with the economic reports but the lack of impulsiveness does indicate that AUD is quite weak in comparison to USD to push the price above to create new highs. To sum up, currently AUD/USD pair is in indecision bias. Until price breaks out of this correction, non-directional indication can be made but as of the current situation USD is expected to have an upper hand over AUD in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing just below the resistance area of 0.7875-0.7900. The price is also residing above the dynamic level of 20 EMA support and trend line support as well, which also indicates that bullish breakout is quite imminent. In this case, we will be looking forward to buy only when the price breaks above the 0.7900 with a daily close with target towards 0.8100 resistance area. On the other hand, if the price breaks below the trendline support of 0.7850 with a daily close, then we will be looking forward to sell with target towards 0.7750 and later towards 0.7550 in the coming days. As the price remains below 0.79 resistance area, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for October 19, 2017

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All our targets which we predicted in yesterday's analysis have been hit. NZD/USD is under pressure and expected to trade in lower range. The pair is likely to test the support at 0.6980 while being capped by the descending 20-period moving average. The intraday outlook is still very bearish as the 20-period moving average continues to stand below the 50-period one, and the relative strength index remains subdued below the neutrality level of 50. A break below 0.6980 would open a path toward 0.6940.

The black line is showing the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which indicates long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines are showing the support levels and the green line is indicating the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7155, 0.7170, and 0.7205

Support levels: 0.6980, 0.6940, and 0.6900

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Euro gives way to dollar initiative

Eurozone

The indicator of economic sentiment ZEW in Germany rose to 17.6 points in October. The growth is not as strong compared in the previous months but it still reflects positive changes in the economy. In the euro area as a whole, the index fell from 31.7 to 26.7 points but is still in the zone of two-year highs.

The inflation in September increased by 0.4%, which is higher than + 0.3% in August while the year-on-year growth was 1.5% higher than the month earlier. The root value excluding food and energy resources in contrary to forecasts was kept at 1.3%, which can be regarded as a positive for the euro currency.

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The intensity of the confrontation regarding the prospects for the curtailment of the asset repurchase program is not decreasing. The Constitutional Court of Germany on Wednesday rejected another request of the Bundesbank on the right to cease participation in the asset repurchase program. Even if considering this process, the ECB will be seriously limited in its capabilities. Mario Draghi in his next speech denied the thesis that the ECB's buyout program prevents structural reforms in the euro area countries. In his opinion, low rates promote reforms as they create favorable macroeconomic conditions.

The ECB obviously resists the growth of the euro. While one of the formal main criteria is inflation and being below the target, these do not intend to make changes to the monetary policy. These expectations put pressure on the euro before the ECB meeting on October 26, whereas the attention this time will be higher than usual.

The euro lost its driver to growth and it is behind the momentum of the dollar. The decrease to support area of 1.1660 / 75 with the subsequent move to 1.1550 is highly probable.

United Kingdom

The pound received support on Tuesday after the publication of data on consumer inflation, which in September rose to 3.0% year on year from 2.9% a month earlier. At the same time, a number of other price indicators, such as producer prices or the retail price index, demonstrate a slowdown in growth rates. Generally, this led the market to believe that price growth is not so convincing as to predict a confident increase in the rate by the Bank of England at its meeting on November 2.

A day later, the employment report came out. The Unemployment was expected to remain at 4.3% in August, which is close to full employment. On the other hand, the average salary growth was slightly better than expected at 2.1%, but it was slightly worse than 2.2% of the previous month. These data cannot be considered a bullish factor for the pound. At least this could because of a simple reason, the wage growth lags behind inflation and is substantially lower than two years ago. In fact, the labor market does not support price increases. Therefore, high inflation is a consequence of rising import prices after the fall of the pound a year ago, and not a reflection of growing consumer demand.

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imports coming from the EU will become even more expensive if a mutually acceptable solution is not found. This will be a factor in favor of inflation but not in the economic growth because this can provoke an increase in the lending of households against the backdrop of weak income growth. Eventually, this will eventually hit consumer activity.

The pound continues to trade in the wide range of 1.3350 / 3050, the probability of moving towards the lows of the month is increasing.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for October 19, 2017

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair continues to move upwards from the level of 0.9677. Since the trend is above this level, the market is still in an uptrend. Furthermore, the trend is still strong above the moving average (100). The USD/CHF pair didn't make any significant movements yesterday. Hence, the market is indicating a bullish opportunity above the mentioned support levels. The bullish outlook remains valid as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the upside. Therefore, strong support will be found around the spot of 0.9677-0.9755 providing a clear signal to buy with a target seen at 0.9836. If the trend breaks the first resistance at 0.9836, the pair will move upwards continuing the bullish trend development to the level of 0.9920 in order to test the daily resistance 2. Also, it should be noted that the major resistance is seen at 0.9980 on the H4 chart. On the other hand, if the USD/CHF pair succeeds to break through the support level of 0.9617 today, the market will decline further to 0.9578. It is recommended to set your stop loss at 0.9578.
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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for October 19, 2017

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair declined from the level of 0.7069 towards 0.7040. The kiwi has been moving between the levels of 0.7069 and 0.7040 since yesterday. The trend is still set below the 0.7069 level. The resistance for the pair is seen at the levels of 0.7069 and 0.7116. The first resistance and the second one are seen at the levels of 0.7069 and 0.7116 respectively. The NZD/USD pair is still moving in a downtrend channel. The price spot of 0.7069 remains a significant resistance area. Therefore, there is a possibility that the NZD/USD pair will move downside, and the structure of a fall does not look corrective. In order to indicate the bearish opportunity below the area of 0.7069, sell below 0.7069 with the first target at 0.7027. It should be noted that support 1 is seen at the level of 0.7027 which coincides with the double bottom in the one-hour time frame. If the NZD/USD pair is able to break out the bottom at 0.7027, the market will decline further to 0.7000 in order to test the weekly support 2. On the other hand, the stop loss should be set above the level of 0.7116 (second resistance).
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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for October 19, 2017

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Daily Outlook

A recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards next price zones around 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) and 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

The recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhanced the bearish side of the market. This brought the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) which failed to pause the ongoing bearish momentum.

An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart indicating a high probability of bearish reversal.

Bearish persistence below the neckline 0.7150 confirms the reversal pattern. Next bearish targets are located around 0.7050, 0.6925 and eventually 0.6800.

As expected, the price level of 0.7050 offered temporary bullish support which paused the ongoing bearish momentum allowing bullish pullback towards 0.7190-0.7230 (Key-Zone) where SELL entries were offered.

Recent signs of bearish rejection are manifested around the depicted supply zone (0.7190-0.7230). That's why, another bearish wave should be expected towards 0.7050, 0.6925 and eventually 0.6800.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for October 19, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allowed a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where recent evidence of bearish rejection was expressed (Note the previous Monthly candlestick of September).

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend reversed when the Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, an evident bullish breakout is being witnessed on the chart. The next Supply level to meet the pair is located around 1.2100 (Level of previous multiple bottoms) where bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry can be anticipated.

On the other hand, If the current bearish breakout persists below 1.1800 and 1.1700, a quick bearish decline should be expected towards the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 where BUY entries can be offered.

Trade Recommendations

Bullish pullback towards the price zone of 1.1835-1.1850 (the backside of the broken uptrend line) should be considered for a valid SELL entry.

Initial T/P level should be placed at 1.1550. S/L should be placed above 1.1950.

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EURUSD - morning review 10/19/2017

The EUR/USD pair is moving higher.

Morning review.

The Federal Reserve's Beige Book report did not give any support to dollar bulls.

On Wednesday, the FRS Beige Book released a report on the state of the US economy based on the regional report on the banks under Fed. All the words in the text are very soft - "dovish" that completely dominates the current policy of the Fed. The labor market is strong, but inflation did not increase. Hence, the growth is moderate and very mild.

Now, this questions the EUR/USD pair regarding the decisions of the ECB next Thursday on October 26. It is best to be prepared from the hints of the ECB about the Quantitative easing program where it will be reduced from 60 billion euros a month to 30 billion from January 2018.

Thus, the euro began to rise yesterday.

Sales from the level of 1.1780 were turned into purchases from the level of 1.1780 with the stop-loss placed at 1.1735.

The main question is whether the course will go up to the daily order level of 1.1880. This will open the way to the level of 1.1980 and further towards 1.2100.

The alternative is selling this pair from the level of 1.1728 and selling for a breakdown at the level of 1.1668.

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Bitcoin analysis for 19/10/2017

Bitcoin analysis for 19/10/2017:

As it is known, WikiLeaks is a salt in the eye of governments and fraudulent corporations. It is usually publishing secret documents that compromise governments and corporations or place them in the bad light. Because of this, the service has become very uncomfortable and is the target of attacks. So, how can you simply destroy this kind of webpage? Cut it off from funding sources. That's what happened. In 2010, the US government forced the banks, Visa and MasterCard to block Julian Assange Foundation. The service was temporarily cut off from the funds. It was then that Assange became interested in Bitcoin and started investing in it. In 2011, WikiLeaks started accepting bitcoins. To date, 26,215 grants have been received for a total of 4,024 Bitcoins. According to Assange, the unsuccessful bear of the United States has brought the investment of his foundation 50,000% return.

In the example of WikiLeaks, you can see the power of Bitcoin, which cannot be shut down or blocked, even at the government's request. Bitcoin gives the owner freedom and new possibilities. With Bitcoin, there may be sites that show uncomfortable truths or opposing government restrictions and orders of any kind.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture in the H4 time frame. The price has bounced from the level of $5,097 and is currently trading around the level of $5,589. The corrective (a)(b)(c) structure in wave (iv) might have been completed, so now there is only wave (v) left. The first target level for wave (v) is the round number of $6,000. The oversold market conditions support the bullish bias.

With InstaForex, you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for October 19, 2017

EUR/USD: In the short term, this pair is neither bullish nor bearish. It is thus better to remain neutral until price goes above the resistance line at 1.1850 (staying above it), or it goes below the support line at 1.1700 (staying below it). One of these two conditions would result in a directional bias.

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USD/CHF: There is an essential bullish bias on this market, for price has gone slightly upward this week. Further bullish movement is possible, especially when the EUR/USD pair slides southward. The resistance level at 0.9800 has been tested and it can be tested again, as price goes northwards.

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GBP/USD: There is a short-term bearish signal on the GBP/USD pair. Price has moved downwards this week, and it could continue going further downwards, reaching the accumulation territories 1.3150 and 1.3100. Unless the distribution territory at 1.3300 is breached to the upside, the current rally attempt can turn out to be a good opportunity to go long.

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USD/JPY: The USD/JPY pair has gone upwards by 110 pips this week, generating a bullish signal. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56 and the RSI period 14 is above the level 50. The supply level at 113.00 has been tested and price would soon go above it. Some fundamental figures are expected today and they may have impact on the markets.

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EUR/JPY: There is an interesting bullish signal on the EUR/JPY cross (and so is it on certain JPY pairs). The Yen is being weakened further and thus, this cross is expected to continue going upwards towards the supply zones at 133.50 and 134.00. The supply levels may even be exceeded this week or next week.

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Trading plan for 19/10/2017

Trading plan for 19/10/2017:

The overnight trading was again without major changes. EUR/USD is holding around 1.1800, USD/JPY is 113.00 and GBP/USD is trading around 1.3200. The data from China confirmed, that Chinese economy in the third quarter grew at a consensus 6.8% on a yearly basis. On Wall Street moderate gains and relative strength of blue chips, S&P500 futures is worth 2560 points.

On Thursday 19th of October, the event calendar is busy with important news releases, but some of them were already posted overnight ( data from China and Australia). Nevertheless, during the London session, the UK will reveal Retail Sales With Auto Fuel data and later, during the US session, Unemployment Claims, Continuing Claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index data from the US will be released.

GBP/USD analysis for 19/10/2017:

The major news event during the London session is UK Retail Sales With Auto Fuel data release that was scheduled at 08:30 am GMT. The market participants expect the sales to dip -0.1% after last month 1.0% increase. Moreover, on a yearly basis, sales should decrease from 2.4% to 2.1% as well. Retail Sales are the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. When the consumer spending dips, then the GDP is very affected as in the UK consumer spending is responsible for 60-70% of GDP. The consumers are more likely to spend the money if the wages are rising and according to the latest data, Average Earnings Index is relatively stable at the level of 2.2%. So, if the data will beat the expectations, the British Pound might appreciate in the short-term across the board.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market still trades below the dashed black trend line, which was tested twice already. Currently, the key technical resistance is at the level of 1.3220 and only a sustained breakout above this level would open the road towards the next resistance at the level of 1.3293. On the other hand, if the bull camp will be too weak to break out, the nearest support is seen at the level of 1.3154 and 1.3111.

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Market Snapshot: USD/JPY close to the recent top

The price of USD/JPY has broken out above the black short-term trend line resistance and currently is trading close to the recent local swing high at the level of 113.43.The market conditions are starting to become overbought and a down candle might be forming, which indicates the possibility of another down move. The nearest support is seen at the level of 112.49.

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Market Snapshot: Gold bounced from 61% Fibo

The price of Gold has slid from the local high at the level of $1,306 but bounced from 61% Fibo at the level of $1,277 in oversold market conditions. This might be a good indication of a near time strength, but the key level to the upside is still higher at $1,289.

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Last minute burning forecast 19/10/2017

Last minute burning forecast 19/10/2017

GBPUSD - upward.

Strong data on the economy of Britain and the Fed's weak report pushed the pound upward.

In recent days, strong data have emerged for the pound: unemployment in England at multi-year lows; inflation, on the contrary, is breaking records in recent years. The Bank of England is forced to make a statement about its readiness to hike the rate - despite the extremely difficult negotiations on Brexit.

As for the second currency of the GBPUSD pair - the US dollar. On Wednesday, the Fed in its "Beige Book" report made the most soft statements on the economy - no chance of accelerating the tightening of monetary policy in the coming month.

Therefore, the pound should grow.

Buy the GBPUSD pair from the kickbacks - buying from 1.3150 and below.

Key support is at the main trend line 1.3090.

Signal for cancellation of buying - a breakthrough down 1.3030 and fastening below this level.

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Technical analysis of USDX for October 19, 2017

As expected, the US dollar index reversed lower after being rejected at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement resistance. The entire upward bounce should be in and a lower high is the bearish sign we were expecting.

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Blue lines - bullish channel

The Dollar index has broken out and below the bullish channel. This is the first bearish sign. Price got rejected at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and is trying to break below Kumo (cloud) support. This is the second bearish sign. The short-term support lies at 93.25. Resistance is at 93.50 and the next one at 93.71.

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Black lines - weekly bearish channel

Blue lines - short-term bullish channel

The dollar index remains in a medium-term bearish trend inside the bearish channel. Price got rejected a couple weeks back at the upper channel boundary. However, the price remains inside the short-term bullish channel. A break below 92.50 will confirm our bearish scenario that the next leg down towards 90 has started.

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Technical analysis of gold for October 19, 2017

Gold price has reached the support at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. I expect an upward reversal from current levels. If this does not happen, we should expect gold to fall towards $1,240-50.

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Blue line - expected move

Gold price is testing the lower Ichimoku cloud boundary and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Oscillators are oversold and turning upwards. This is the important support area. Resistance is at $1,289 and the next one at $1,302.

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Blue line - long-term support

Magenta line - long-term resistance

Gold price is trading above the weekly Ichimoku cloud. This is a bullish sign. However, price got rejected a few weeks back at the magenta trend line which was our target since $1,200. In order for gold to push towards $1,400, we need to break above this resistance level. A test of cloud support and the blue trend line is still not out of the question. Any pullback is still considered a buying opportunity.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for October 19, 2017

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Wave summary:

We were looking for a b-wave rally to 1.6584, this target has been spiked as the high has been seen at 1.6662. The high at 1.6662 likely was the top for wave b and wave c to below 1.6298 closer to 1.6150 is now expected. To confirm wave c lower has taken over, we need a break below 1.6500 and more importantly a break below 1.6441.

R3: 1.6715

R2: 1.6687

R1: 1.6662

Pivot: 1.6530

S1: 1.6500

S2: 1.6441

S3: 1.6390

Trading recommendation:

Unfortunately, our stop at 1.6635 was hit for a loss. We will sell EUR again here at 1.6635 with the stop placed at 1.6675.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for October 19, 2017

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Wave summary

Make it or Break it - EUR/JPY is now sitting just below important resistance at 133.49, this resistance will need to cap the upside to confirm more downside pressure towards 127.80. Short-term a break below minor support at 133.05 will be the first good indication that the corrective rally from 131.64 has completed and a new decline to here and below should be expected.

If, however important resistance at 133.49 is cleared then more upside to 133.83 should be expected, but it could revive wave D for a move closer to 137.37.

R3: 134.41

R2: 134.24

R1: 133.83

Pivot: 133.49

S1: 133.05

S2: 132.69

S3: 132.20

Trading recommendation:

Our short position from 132.65 was closed at break-even. We will sell EUR here at 133.35 and place stop+revers at 133.55.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Oct 19, 2017

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as Spanish 10-y Bond Auction. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Natural Gas Storage, CB Leading Index m/m, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and Unemployment Claims, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a ... volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1849.

Strong Resistance:1.1842.

Original Resistance: 1.1831.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1820.

Target Inner Area: 1.1792.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1764.

Original Support: 1.1753.

Strong Support: 1.1742.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1735.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Oct 19, 2017

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In Asia, Japan will release the All Industries Activity m/m and Trade Balance data, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as Natural Gas Storage, CB Leading Index m/m, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and Unemployment Claims. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 113.50.

Resistance. 2: 113.27.

Resistance. 1: 113.05.

Support. 1: 112.78.

Support. 2: 112.56.

Support. 3: 112.34.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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AUD/JPY profit target reached absolutely perfectly, prepare to sell

The price has shot up from our buying area and reached our profit target absolutely perfectly. We prepare to sell on major resistance at 88.76 (Multiple Fibonacci retracements, horizontal swing high resistance, Fibonacci extension) for a push down to at least 87.92 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).

Stochastic (34,3,1) is seeing major resistance at 98% where we expect a corresponding drop from.

Sell below 88.76. Stop loss is at 89.38. Take profit is at 87.92.

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EUR/JPY shot up and reached our profit target perfectly, prepare to sell

The price has shot up from our buying area and reached our profit target perfectly. We prepare to sell on major resistance at 133.29 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap resistance) for a push back down to at least 131.90 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap support).

Stochastic (34,3,1) is seeing major resistance at 98% and we expect to see a corresponding drop from this level soon.

Sell below 133.29. Stop loss is at 133.96. Take profit is at 131.90.

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Daily analysis of USDX for October 19, 2017

USDX is consolidating the price action above the 200 SMA and opened the doors to test the resistance level of 94.58. However, that doesn't put the bulls in focus yet, as the index struggles to break a range that has been established. If we see a break below the 93.35 level, then we can expect a decline towards the psychological level of 93.00.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 93.35 / 94.58

H1 chart's support levels: 93.00 / 91.67

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 93.35, take profit is at 94.58 and stop loss is at 92.66.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for October 19, 2017

GBP/USD has found resistance in the 200 SMA at H1 chart following a pullback made from October 13 lows. Below yesterday's lows, the pair has formed a fractal that should provide support in the short-term. If it manages to break below it, we might expect another leg lower towards the 1.3037 level. MACD indicator stays in the positive territory, favoring to the bulls.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3309 / 1.3373

H1 chart's support levels: 1.3216 / 1.3037

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.3216, take profit is at 1.3037 and stop loss is at 1.3398.

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The Fed blocked the gold oxygen

The reduction in the degree of geopolitical risks, the growth of the yield of US Treasury bonds and the strengthening of the dollar made gold notch a three-day decline in prices. The precious metal has returned to the weekly low, and judging by the growing probability of tightening the Fed's monetary policy in December to 93%, this is not the limit. According to TD Securities, for the return of futures quotations above the psychologically significant $ 1,300 mark for an ounce, the weakness of macroeconomic statistics in the United States is required. To the disappointment of the "bulls" for XAU/ USD, the latter continues to please fans of the US dollar.

In September, import prices accelerated from 2.1% to 2.7%, which is the indicator's best performance since June and also increases the chances of continuing the normalization cycle of the monetary policy of the Fed. If the FOMC really worries about inflation, then an increase in the rate of its growth should give confidence in the need to raise the rate for federal funds. The situation with GDP is no worse. Pessimists were concerned regarding economic slowdown under the influence of hurricanes, however, judging by industrial production (+ 0.3% m/m in September), things are not as bad as they were supposed to be. Hopes for accelerating inflation and GDP, including through the implementation of tax reform, push up the yield of US Treasury bonds, which is a "bearish" factor for gold.

Dynamics of the yield of 10-year US and gold bonds

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Source: Trading Economics.

Precious metals can not cling unto the improvement in market conditions for physical assets. Active purchases on the eve of Diwali's wedding feast allow us to forecast the growth of gold consumption in India. For 9 months, the indicator reached the level of 700 tons, which is 5% more than last year's value. Despite the strengthening of the dollar and the growing risks of retreat in XAU/USD, the outflow of capital from ETF in October, according to Commerzbank's research, remained modest (4.6 t). Alas, but especially strongly rely on the demand for a physical asset "bulls" for XAU/USD is not worth it: traditionally in the period of falling prices, it increases in the jewelry business and decreases in the investment area. Simply put, demand follows prices, but not vice versa.

The gold can be supported by uncertainty. The information that diplomats from North Korea and the United States can meet in Russia has reduced the degree of geopolitical risks. Nevertheless, the conflict has not yet been resolved. As, strictly speaking, the question of Catalonia has not been resolved. There are certain difficulties in the negotiation process between London and Brussels over Brexit, as well as the risks of getting a weak government in Japan after early elections. These factors can put pressure on the yield of US bonds and return interest of buyers to XAU/USD.

It should be noted that at the head of the Fed, most likely, will be Jerome Powell, who adheres to the policy of gradual normalization. Its realization allowed the precious metal to add 11.5% from the beginning of the year.

Technically, the breakthrough of support at $ 1 262-1 267 per ounce will increase the risk of activation of the pattern AB = CD. It targets 200% near the $ 1212 mark.

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for October 18, 2017

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Overview

The GBP/JPY pair traded downwards yesterday moving away from the resistance at 149.10, which confirms its affection by the bearish correctional domination. We will keep waiting for the price to reach the first correctional target at 146.80, reminding you that extra negative pressure will allow the price to resume its bearish attack and reach 145.50, to test the moving average 55. Stochastic is currently settling below 50 levels, supporting our bearish suggestion by new negative momentum and ease the price attempt to reach the suggested negative targets. The expected trading range for today is between 149.10 and 146.80.

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Daily analysis of Gold for October 18, 2017

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Overview

Gold price is trading lower, heading for the key support at 1,281.17. Traders are advised to excercise caution in the short term, as settling below this level will extend Gold price losses to reach 1,263.15 in the upcoming period. In general, we will keep today's bullish scenario valid on condition of holding above 1,281.17. Let me remind you that our initial targets begin by breaching 1,299.20 followed by 1,305.00 to open the way to head towards 1,321.49, followed by 1,357.53 on the near-term basis. The expected trading range for today is between 1,280.00 support and 1,305.00 resistance.

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Daily analysis of Silver for October 18, 2017

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Overview

Silver price is trading lower to move below the bearish trend line again. This might push the price to test the key support 16.56 before turning back to rise again. Stochastic keeps getting rid of its negative momentum to support the expectations of a further overall bullish trend, which is holding above 16.56. The targets are seen at 17.43 to reach 18.30. The expected trading range for today is between 16.95 support and 17.40 resistance.

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BITCOIN Analysis for October 18, 2017

Bitcoin has been quite corrective recently. As expected, the price is retracing towards the Kumo Cloud support before launching higher with a target towards $6,000 price level. Today, Bitcoin has breached below the $5,500 price level which made the market quite indecisive about the upcoming bullish movement in this cryptocurrency. A daily close below $5,500 is expected to take the market to more corrective and volatile atmosphere in the coming days. Ahead of the upcoming Bitcoin Split in November, the market sentiment was quite confused before the impulsive bullish move but the price is expected to move clean towards $6,000 price level before any strong bearish counter-trend. There are also certain news coming up where buying Bitcoin has been discouraged by various regulators and elite executives like JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon. Apart from the negative statements, the Bitcoin remained unaffected but ahead of the upcoming Bitcoin split it is struggling well. As for the current scenario, the price has moved below the dynamic level of 20 EMA whereas Tenkan and Kijun line is about to have a bearish cross and Chikou Span is currently residing inside the corrective structure. As the price remains above the Kumo Cloud and $5,000 support area, the bullish bias is set to continue further in the coming days.

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/CAD for October 18, 2017

USD/CAD has been quite corrective recently inside the range of 1.2420 to 1.2660. USD has been weighed down by weak economic reports recently whereas a positive report from Canada today helped with CAD gains. Recent FOMC minutes were bearish for USD which led to further weakness against CAD. Nevertheless, the bias is bullish in the long term. Today CAD Manufacturing Sales report was published with an increase to 1.6% from the previous negative value of -2.6% which was expected to be at -0.1%. It is the leading indicator of the economic health, so positive outcome of the economic report is expected to provide a better push to the CAD for further gains against USD. On the USD side, today Building Permits report was published with a worse figure of 1.22M from the previous figure of 1.27M which was expected to be at 1.25M, Housing Starts report also showed a decrease to 1.13M which was expected to be unchanged at 1.18M, and Crude Oil Inventories report was published with a greater deficit to -5.7M from the previous deficit of -2.7M which was expected to be at -4.7M. Along with the economic reports today, FOMC Member Dudley and Kaplan spoke about the interest rate and future monetary policies, expressing the neutral stance. As for the current scenario, USD is quite weak against CAD now but still there are certain possibilities of USD to regain the strength and proceed further upwards. This week, US Unemployment Claims and Canada's CPI and Core Retail Sales report are due to be published which is expected to provide a further directional indication of this pair in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently residing above the support level of 1.2420 and a dynamic level of 20 EMA which is expected to push the price higher towards 1.2660 and later towards 1.28 resistance area. The recent trend has been bullish which is currently corrective. As the trend consists of impulsive and corrective moves, the pair is expected to trade higher towards 1.2660 in the coming days.

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