Euro flies into the abyss

The disappointing statistics on US retail sales for December only temporarily stopped the bears in EUR / USD. The US economy slows down to 2% in the fourth quarter, according to JP Morgan. The Fed does not begin to raise the federal funds rate in 2019, as the derivatives market shows, but the eurozone looks so gloomy that it's fit to talk about reanimation QE. Against this background, the fall of the euro to 3-month lows against the US dollar looks logical. The main thing is that sellers do not overdo it.

In the fourth quarter, German GDP almost fell into a technical recession, while European GDP grew by a modest 0.2% q / q. The problems of German industry, weak domestic and external demand are forcing the economy of the currency bloc to slow down. Many of the difficulties are most likely temporary. If the trade wars stop, then the export of the Old World will be able to rise from its knees, but who can guarantee that this will happen? That having dealt with China, Donald Trump will not take up the EU by increasing duties on European cars? But there is also Brexit and the related gap in economic ties with an important trading partner. Italy with its eurosceptics. The euro looks so weak that it is unable to resist even the deprived of the main trumps of the US dollar.

The "American" no longer expects aggressive monetary restriction and 3% GDP growth. About half of the hundreds of Reuters experts predict that the Fed has completed a cycle of tightening monetary policy, the rest believe that the central bank will raise the rate only once. Derivatives market gives only 2% probability of such an outcome. For comparison, the chances of lowering the rate are estimated at 12.5%. At the same time, statistics on the States, with the exception, perhaps, of retail sales, does not disappoint at all, and the divergence in the dynamics of economic surprise indexes creates a solid foundation for the downward trend in EUR / USD.

Dynamics of US economic indexes and eurozone surprises

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Obviously, against the background of decent data, the fall in the probability of the Fed normalization cycle continuing is entirely connected with the "pigeon" rhetoric of its representatives. In this regard, the publication of the minutes of the January meeting of the FOMC seems to be a test for the US dollar. However, the euro will have to go through the fire and copper pipes: a day later, on February 21, the statistics on business activity and the minutes of the meeting of the Governing Council will be released. I recall that during the press conference on its results, Mario Draghi spoke about the LTRO, which was the reason for the sales of the euro.

Equally important are the results of trade negotiations between the United States and China. Should the conflict escalate, capital flight to safe havens will accelerate the fall of EUR / USD. Only the presence of a breakthrough will allow the bulls to go to the counter.

Technically, bears on the main currency pair are making titanic efforts to bring quotes outside the trading range of 1.1265-1.1485. If they succeed, the risks of target realization by 127.2% on the "Butterfly" pattern will increase.

EUR / USD, the daily chart

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The dollar has risen significantly, is it worth selling it?

According to an analyst at Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO), Sachin Gupta, the uncertainty surrounding trade relations between the United States and the Middle Kingdom, as well as the slowdown in the growth of the global economy can support the already "expensive" dollar over the coming months. Therefore, at the moment he prefers to maintain a neutral position in relation to the US currency.

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"Where the dollar will go in the future will depend on whether the two largest economies in the world can reach an agreement. A truce will increase risk appetite and is likely to cause a weakening of the greenback in all directions, while the deterioration of relations can lead to the fact that investors will seek refuge in US currency. In this case, the dollar can rise in price even more", Gupta said.

A similar point of view is held by Erik Nelson, the currency strategist of Wells Fargo.

"The deterioration of statistical data in the US leaves it possible to remain neutral to the dollar over the next few months, given that the rest of the world is also experiencing a slowdown in economic growth. At the same time, mitigating the rhetoric of the Federal Reserve is leveled by the fact that other central banks also began to display dovish sentiments or lean toward a less hawkish position. If the dollar begins to decline, towards the end of the year, "he said.

Meanwhile, an economist at Goldman Sachs, Michael Cahill, believes that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues will be more and more sensitive to the bad news and ignore the positive, resulting in the likelihood of lower interest rates will rise and the dollar will fall.

In turn, experts of Bank of America Merrill Lynch believe that it is time to again sell the dollar against the yen.

"In the autumn, we recommended the sale of the dollar against the yen, and this made a good profit during the recent collapse that took place in December and early January. If the global stock market resumes decline in the coming weeks, the Japanese currency will regain the status of a safe-haven asset and rise in price. It is assumed that the short-term risks will not yet allow the Fed to tighten its position", they said.

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GBP / USD plan for the American session on February 15. Pound regained a number of positions after good retail sales

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

Pound regained a number of positions after good retail sales data, which turned out to be better than economists' forecasts. However, the technical picture remained unchanged. At the moment, bulls need to return to the resistance of 1.2826 and only a higher fixation will lead to a larger upward correction in the area of 1.2880 and 1.2944, where I recommend to fix profits. With the scenario of GBP/USD decline in the second half of the day, you can look at long positions at a low of this week around 1.2769 or buy a pound immediately for a rebound from a new low of 1.2723.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

While the trade is conducted below 1.2826, the pressure on the pound will continue and the main purpose of the bears will be to break the week low of 1.2769. We can expect sellers to return to the market on levels lower than this, which will lead to an update of the area 1.2723 and 1.2672, where I recommend fixing profits. In the case of good news from Theresa May and Brexit regarding the timing of the postponement of the UK exit from the EU, the demand for the pound may return. In this scenario, you can sell on a rebound from a maximum of 1.2880 or 1.2944.

More in the video forecast for February 15

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30- and 50-medium moving, which indicates the possible formation of the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

The volatility of the Bollinger Bands indicator is low, which does not give signals to enter the market.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The United States and China have not reached a trade agreement in Beijing

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The two-day US-China trade negotiations have ended, but further terms of cooperation have not been agreed upon. Nevertheless, both sides noted that there is still some progress on a number of important issues.

According to the latest data, the United States and the PRC decided to sign a general agreement in the form of a protocol of intent, which would later become the basis for a future trade transaction. Negotiations will continue next week in Washington.

The composition of the delegations is expected to remain unchanged, and China will continue to be represented by Vice Premier Liu He. From the US side, there will be US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Finance Minister Steven Mnuchin.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD plan for the US session on February 15. Eurozone data ignored by the market

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

The euro remains under pressure and buyers are not in a hurry to return to the market amid weak statistics on the balance of foreign trade balance in the eurozone. The technical picture has not changed. Euro buyers still need a breakthrough and consolidation above the middle of the side channel at 1.1299, which will lead to an increase in long positions with the update of the upper limit of 1.1339, where I recommend taking profits. The main target will be a maximum of 1.1388. Larger growth will occur in the event that data on the US will again disappoint investors, same as yesterday. In the case of EUR / USD decline in the second half of the day, it is best to return to long positions on a false breakdown around 1.1260 or on a rebound from the new monthly minimum of 1.1215.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Bears can return to the market after the formation of a false breakdown in the area of resistance at 1.1299. In the afternoon, the main task will be a breakthrough of support at 1.1260, below which a large sale will lead to testing of 1.1215 minimum and 1.1180, where I recommend fixing profits. Vendors may get some support after strong data on the American economy but there are some doubts that the reports will be better than expected. In the case of EUR / USD growth above the resistance of 1.1299, I recommend returning in short positions on a rebound from the maximum of 1.1339.

More in the video forecast for February 15

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30- and 50-medium moving, which indicates the possible formation of the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

The volatility of the Bollinger Bands indicator is low, which does not give signals to enter the market.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Brexit divided Wall Street into two camps: Goldman is waiting for a deal while JPMorgan is not

As the Brexit crisis deepens, the two giants of Wall Street have completely different views on the final result. Goldman Sachs sees a 50 percent probability of a ratified deal while JP Morgan talks about the postponement. If British Prime Minister Theresa May cannot agree on a Brexit deal with Parliament, she will have to decide whether to put Brexit on hold or plunge the world's fifth largest economy into chaos.

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Goldman Sachs with a probability of 50 percent believes that May deal will be ratified. Additionally, lawmakers will ultimately block the exit without a deal, if necessary. The probability of exit without a deal is 15 percent and the total cancellation of Brexit is about 35 percent. "There is a majority in the House of Commons who wants to avoid Brexit" without a deal ", but there is no majority in the House of Commons ready to support the second referendum, at least at this stage," noted Goldman.

JPMorgan believes that May will seek to extend the deadline for approval until March 29. "We still believe that it is likely for the Prime Minister, instead of allowing unsuccessful voting and subsequent ministerial resignations, will try to act proactively and will seek to extend the deadlines," the company noted. The divergence of views of the two most influential banks on Wall Street shows how diligent investors in reading the maze of charts on the eve of Brexit, which is the most significant political and economic movement of the United Kingdom since the Second World War. Recall that most large banks incorrectly predicted the results of the 2016 referendum.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The volatility of the Australian dollar attracts both "bulls" and "bears"

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At the moment, experts record the high volatility of the Australian dollar, which has been in the hands of hedge funds. They are actively betting on mutually exclusive positions: on the growth of the AUD rate, and on its fall.

According to Nader Naeimi, a fund manager at AMP Capital Investors, the current situation is best for AUD trading. Many currency market experts recommended selling the Australian dollar, but now they are more inclined to buy it. Some market players adhere to the tactics of "dragging the rope," for example, Geoff Wood, head of risk management at Morphic Asset Management, who notes that the company sells "Australian" when its rate rises to 72 cents and buys back after reducing to 60 cents.

Australian currency is influenced by good geopolitical news, but the desire to avoid risk also puts pressure on it. As a result, the volatility of the currency of the Green continent stirs the active interest of the majority of market participants.

Australian currency is sensitive to uncertainties in the global economy. The green continent is considered the world's largest exporter of iron ore, so the Australian dollar is very dependent on investor sentiment regarding the prospects for the global economy. Australian currency strengthens with positive sentiment and increased risk appetite on the part of investors. However, at the moment, competing factors that arose simultaneously led to an increase in the variability of the AUD rate.

Last year, the Australian dollar fell by almost 10% against the US currency and became an outsider among developed countries. A negative impact on the "Australian" had a trade conflict between the United States and China, as well as the rise in the Fed's rates. Since the beginning of this year, the Australian currency has partially recovered, supported by rising iron ore prices and amid the US and Chinese truce. However, experts find it difficult to give an answer regarding the future prospects of AUD. The reasons for this are the delicate balance in achieving a trade truce between America and China, as well as the uncertainty of the strategy of world central banks about raising the rate. Recall that at the moment the Fed took a pause in the cycle of tightening monetary policy.

The current uncertainty of the geopolitical situation contributes to the high volatility of the Australian dollar. This suits hedge funds, which benefit from the circumstances.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD: as the Brexit deadline approaches, the prospects for the pound look gloomier

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In recent weeks, the pound has lost more than 2% in weight against the background of the fact that hopes for the implementation of the "soft" Brexit scenario or its postponement are gradually fading.

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According to a number of experts, given the slowdown in the British economy and the low likelihood of a quick elimination of uncertainty around the divorce process, the prospects for the pound look rather bleak.

"The chances that Theresa May and the pound sterling will fall into the abyss on March 29 are increasing every minute," analysts at Commerzbank said.

On the eve of the House of Commons did not support the government's strategy for negotiations with the EU on the terms of the country's withdrawal from the alliance. May lost by 303 votes to 258.

Despite the fact that this vote was of a technical nature, its outcome does not oblige the cabinet to change its approach to Brexit, but rather enhances the feeling of a political crisis in the country and may adversely affect London's negotiations with Brussels.

In addition, the reluctance of the parties at any cost to reach a consensus on the issue of the so-called "backstop" reduces the likelihood that the UK will eventually manage to retain membership in the EU customs union and remain part of the single European market.

According to estimates from Bank of America Merrill Lynch, a pound can sit up to $ 1.10 if the United Kingdom leaves the EU without a deal.

"Even in the case of a quick settlement of issues related to Brexit, the weakness of the pound may persist due to fundamental factors," said BNY Mellon.

"The closer March 29, the more British companies will begin to implement emergency plans, which will slow the growth of the country's economy to about 0.2% in the first quarter, which will have a negative impact on the pound," said ING representatives.

Thus, it should be expected that with the Brexit deadline approaching, the pressure on the pound will only increase, at least until there is news of a potential compromise on the divorce agreement between the EU and Britain. In the meantime, markets do not even rule out the implementation of the "hard" scenario.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR and Fed: In euro, there is still a chance for correction. US statistics disappoints Fed

The US dollar fell against the euro and several other world currencies yesterday after the release of more than weak reports indicating a slowdown in the US economy at the end of last year and at the beginning of this year.

According to the US Department of Labor, the number of Americans who first applied for unemployment benefits has increased. The data is of a weekly nature and is not much taken into account by investors when assessing the overall state of the labor market.

According to the report, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits rose by 4,000 in a week, from February 3 to 9. Economists expected the number of applications to be 225,000. The number of secondary applications for unemployment benefits in the week from January 27 to February 2 increased by 37,000 and amounted to 1,773,000.

The US dollar was under pressure after a report indicating a sharp drop in retail sales, which are the main driver of economic growth.

According to the US Department of Commerce, retail sales in the United States in December 2018 fell immediately by 1.2% compared with the previous month, reaching $ 505.8 billion. Economists and analysts, on the contrary, expected a 0.1% increase in sales in December. Such a serious decline, of course, will affect the final growth rate of the economy at the end of 2018. In December, retail sales grew by only 2.3% over the same period last year.

Producer prices also failed to please the market, as they declined, indicating a decrease in inflationary pressure at the beginning of this year.

According to the US Department of Labor, PPI's producer price index fell 0.1% in January 2019 compared with the previous month. The base index, which does not take into account volatile categories, increased by 0.2%. Economists had expected the general index in January to show an increase of 0.1% compared with the previous month, while the base index would add 0.2%. Compared with the same period of the previous year, the index rose by 2% in January.

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The main decline was due to the fall in energy prices, which for the designated period fell 0.8%.

Inventories of US companies declined in November, which is also a bad sign for the economy. According to the US Department of Commerce, inventories fell by 0.1% to $ 1.981 trillion. Economists had expected stocks in November to show a 0.2% increase.

The main decline was due to lower stocks in the retail and manufacturing sectors.

Yesterday's speech by US Federal Reserve representative Lael Brainard did not surprise the markets. Brainard said that the December drop in US retail sales attracted particular attention from the Fed, which reinforces the downside risks to GDP growth. However, in her opinion, the US economy has a strong impetus for growth in the future, and the current Fed policy corresponds to the situation that is now observed in the world. Brainard, like her colleagues, believes that it is necessary to wait sometime before making another decision on interest rates.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, the hope remains for buyers, especially if today the fundamental data on the American economy are just as weak as yesterday.

A return to the resistance level of 1.1300 will be a good signal to the growth of risky assets, which will lead to a test of highs of 1.1340 and 1.1390. If the pressure on the euro continues, the breakthrough of the 1.1260 minimum could put buyers in a very difficult position. Below this range, only support levels around 1.1220 and 1.1170 are visible.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Review of the foreign exchange market on 02/15/2019

Yesterday was incredibly interesting and intense but most importantly, extremely diverse in terms of the behavior of certain currencies. For example, the single European currency behaved quite academically, strictly obeying the logic of published macroeconomic data. European statistics itself did not surprise anyone since the second estimate of GDP completely coincided with the first, showing a slowdown once again in economic growth from 1.6% to 1.2%.

However, American statistics greatly disappointed market participants. In particular, inflation data released on Wednesday inspired hope that the slowdown in producer prices would not be so strong, but in fact, they slowed down from 2.5% to 2.0%. Although, they predicted a slowdown to 2.1%. Also, much worse were data on applications for unemployment benefits came out than forecasts. Initially, it was predicted that their total number would decrease by 6 thousand, but in reality, it increased by 41 thousand. It is not surprising that the single European currency was able to strengthen its position yesterday. The number of initial applications increased by 4 thousand instead of reducing by 10 thousand while the number of repeated applications for unemployment benefits did not increase by 4 thousand but by 37 thousand.

Well, the worst thing is that the growth rate of retail sales dropped down from 4.1% to 2.3% and in combination with a slowdown in inflation, this is just a fusion mixt. However, waiting for the acceleration of growth to 4.5%, the next macroeconomic data clearly indicate that the Federal Reserve will seriously think about easing monetary policy.

But with the pound, everything is a little different due to another fuss around Brexit. The British Parliament, also referred to as the House of Commons, rejected legislative amendments proposed by Theresa May to prevent the so-called Backstop. The fact is that parliamentarians flatly refuse to accept any agreement that does not regulate trade issues, especially related to the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. After all, if Brexit takes place in the form as spelled out in the current version of the agreement adopted by Europe, then Northern Ireland will find itself in a special position very different from the rest of Great Britain. The most important thing here is that in this case, all trade and financial flows between the UK and the European Union will pass through Northern Ireland. As a result, huge profits will settle there.

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According to the fair discussion of parliamentarians, this creates the ground for a new wave of separatism and threatens the territorial integrity of the United Kingdom. It is not surprising that the House of Commons blocks any agreement that allows such a possibility. At the same time, the European Union refuses to discuss any other options besides the one that already exists. Thus, hard Brexit is becoming more real, which causes a further decline of the pound.

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Today, the industrial production data is released in the United States, which is far from optimistic even without yesterday's failed statistics. Indeed, the growth rate of industrial production should slow down from 4.0% to 3.6% and there is every reason to believe that the slowdown will be even more significant. This is indicated by the slowed in production orders and the continued growth in inventories. Although a decline was evident from yesterday's data, this reduction is not enough to cover the previous growth. Given that no data is coming out in Europe, it's worth waiting for a negative reaction specifically for the dollar and the single European currency can rise to 1.1300.

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There is a great opportunity for a long-awaited correction. Since apart from industrial production in the United States, the United Kingdom itself predicts an acceleration in retail sales growth from 3.0% to 3.4%. The recent slowdown in inflation will be forgotten as sales grow and will give the pound more confidence. Thus, it is worth waiting for the gradual growth of the pound to 1.2875.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified wave analysis of GOLD for February 15

Large-scale graphics:

The period of strengthening the gold rate began in August last year. The wave does not fully realize its potential.

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Medium scale graphics:

The ascending section of the chart, which started in mid-November, in the larger model gave rise to the final phase of the movement.

Small-scale graphics:

The descending wave of January 31 has a small stroke potential. On the TF H1 plot, the plot corrects the previous climb, before the next jerk in the main direction.

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Forecast and recommendations:

The period of price correction of gold may end as early as next week. A reference point can serve as a new calendar, in which the most important will be news from the United States. Traders are advised to track the buy signals of the instrument.

Resistance zones:

- 1375.0 / 1380.0

Support areas:

- 1300.0 / 1295.0

Explanatory notes for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). The analysis uses 3 consecutive scale graph. Each of them analyzes the last, incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD. February 15. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Theresa May suffers another loss in Parliament

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - up.

The junior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -123.0370

The currency pair GBP / USD on Friday, February 15, continues to fall with pleasure. Up to the lows of the year, there are only 300 points left, which is not so much for the pound sterling. The most important thing is that there are no strong corrections or downfalls for the pair. This is the movement that can lead a pound below 1.2436. Today in the UK, a report on retail sales for January will be published, forecasts predict an increase in performance, but the real values may be much worse. If these reports fail today, then traders will have another weighty reason for new pound sales. Needless to say, there is still no positive news on the subject of Brexit? If the reports on retail sales are not worse than forecasts, then perhaps the pound will get a short break, but is unlikely to be able to rise in price above the moving average. This means that the downward trend will continue. There is no positive news on Brexit, but there are negative ones. Yesterday, the British Parliament rejected Theresa May's plan to negotiate with the EU, and did not rule out the possibility of an unregulated exit from the EU. Thus, the UK can still leave the EU without any "deal", and the chances that Theresa May will still be able to carry out her plan through parliament are reduced even more.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.2787

S2 - 1.2756

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.2817

R2 - 1.2848

R3 - 1.2878

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD continues to move down, as evidenced by the blue bars indicator Heikin Ashi. The targets for short positions now are 1.2787 and 1.2756. Today a correction is possible if the retail sales report from the UK is positive.

It is recommended to open long positions no earlier than traders overcome moving with the first target of 1.3000. From a fundamental point of view, this option is still unlikely, since we do not receive any positive news from the UK.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is blue lines of the unidirectional movement

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. February 15. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Bulls do not have the strength to overcome the MA

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

The junior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -42.3087

The last trading day of the week promises to be extremely boring in terms of macroeconomic news. To date, no important publications have been planned in the European Union. And this means that the support of Euro currency from the EU will not wait for sure. In the United States, industrial production and consumer confidence index from the Institute of Michigan in February will be published today. But this is not the most significant fundamental news, so the market reaction may be minimal or absent altogether. In the coming hours, the Heikin Ashi indicator may turn down, which will mean the resumption of the downtrend for the EUR / USD pair. No matter how much we expect the pair to strengthen to 1.1500, the bulls are now extremely weak and cannot even overcome the moving average line. In fairness, it should be noted that they have no fundamental support. Thus, a certain probability of a hike upward with a preliminary consolidation above the moving one persists, but with every hour the chances decrease. Thus, based on the foregoing, the downward trend in the instrument is preserved, which means that short positions remain relevant at the moment. Instrument volatility has increased in recent days.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1230

S2 - 1.1169

S3 - 1.1108

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1292

R2 - 1.1353

R3 - 1.1414

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair is trying to resume its downward movement. The color of 1-2 bars with the Heikin Ashi indicator in blue will signal the opening of new shorts with a target of 1.1230.

Buy positions are recommended to be considered not earlier if the Bulls overcome the moving average line with the first target of 1.1414. However, as before, the foundation does not support the European currency now.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified wave analysis of EUR / JPY for February 15

Large-scale graphics:

Over the past year, the bearish wave has set the main direction of the trend. By the beginning of the current year, the coincidence of several factors made it clear that the wave had ended.

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Medium scale graphics:

The beginning upward movement of January 3 gave rise to a reversing wave construction. After its completion, a change in the vector of the short-term trend of the pair will follow.

Small-scale graphics:

The downward wave of February 2 develops in the lateral plane. In the H1 wave, it corrects the previous trend segment.

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Forecast and recommendations:

The flat mood of price fluctuations of the cross will continue in the coming week. When the price reaches the settlement support zone, it is recommended to track the reversal signals in order to search for the entrance to long transactions.

Resistance zones:

- 125.90 / 126.40

Support areas:

- 123.80 / 123.30

Explanatory notes for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). The analysis uses 3 consecutive scale graph. Each of them analyzes the last, incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of the divergence of EUR / USD for February 15. Euro retains chances for growth

4h

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The EUR / USD pair on the 4-hour chart completed the second reversal in favor of the European currency, after the rebound from the level of 1.1269 and the formation of bullish divergence. Thus, the pair now has a certain chance of growth in the direction of the correctional level of 23.6% - 1.1358. The ripening divergences on February 15 are not observed in any indicator. Closing quotes for low divergence will work in favor of resuming the fall of the pair in the direction of the Fibo level of 0.0% - 1.1219.

The Fibo grid was built on extremums from September 24, 2018, and November 12, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the pair made a return to the Fibo level of 127.2% - 1.1285 and threatens to close under it. Fixing the pair under this level will work in favor of the US dollar and continuing the fall of quotations in the direction of the next correction level of 161.8% - 1.0941. Rebounding from the Fibo level of 127.2% will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the EU currency and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1553.

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the EUR / USD pair can be carried out now with the goal of 1.1358, as the pair completed the closing above the level of 1.1269 (with the formation of bullish divergence), and the Stop Loss order below this level.

Sales of the EUR / USD pair can be carried out with a target of 1.1219, if the pair closes under a bullish divergence low, and a Stop Loss order above the level of 1.1269.

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Weak retail sales data scared investors

The latest US macroeconomic data package published on Thursday was extremely disappointing. The volume of retail sales fell by 1.2% in January while the growth of forecast was at 0.2%. Also, the producer price growth slowed from 2.5% to 2.0% in January. A weak data was a complete surprise to the market as retail showed the worst result since 2008.

Weak consumer demand will lead to a slowdown in the economy. The Atlanta Fed has sharply lowered its forecast for GDP from 2.7% to 1.5% by the fourth quarter.

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The slowdown in consumer demand coincided with the growth of the national debt ceiling above 22 trillion and now, the US government needs to recalculate the revenue part of the budget because if consumer demand is slowing down. Tax cuts will also be inevitable.

Published in the period reporting companies for 4 square in 2018, there are also plenty of surprises in general and more often they are negative. Shares of Under Armor Inc., Western Union and Seagate Technology subsided after the publication of data as they turned out to be worse than forecasts. Stock prices of the top Coca-Cola brand showed the worst one-day dynamics since 2008 what was assumed quite recently, the threat of recession is getting closer.

Negotiations on a trade agreement in Beijing will continue today. US representatives Stephen Mnuchin and Robert Lighthizer will meet with Chairman Xi Jinping today. The recent news flow indicates that both parties are still far away from each other and if this conclusion is confirmed, the markets will face a sharp wave of demand for defensive assets. Asian stocks are trading in the red zone on Monday morning.

Trump is expected to sign an expenditure bill. On midnight US time, tensions remain high since Trump announced his intention to impose a state of emergency in the country.

Today, a report will be published on import and export prices, as well as on industrial production, while forecasts suggest a slight increase. But still, if the data turns out to be disappointing, there will be much more reasons for a serious decline in the dollar. While the weakness of the dollar is reflected only in the growth of prices for raw materials, primarily oil and gold, the dollar continues to hold positions in the foreign exchange market but this happens primarily because of serious problems in other currency areas.

EURUSD pair

Eurozone's weak data on industrial production in December contributed to a decline in the euro but did not lead to a revaluation of GDP growth in fourth. In 2018, economic growth was 0.2% with an annualized rate of 1.2%. In conclusion, the result fully coincided with forecasts.

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The euro is saved from a large-scale decline by the unexpected weakness of the dollar, but even in this case, a further decline is most likely to happen on Friday. EUR/USD may decline to 1.1230/35 by the end of the day.

GBPUSD pair

Theresa May suffered another defeat because the vote in parliament, even though it was indicative, shows that there is no coalition behind it. The pound is under strong pressure, as the data on producer prices and consumer inflation published the day before were worse than expected.

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The pound is under strong pressure. Today, a corrective growth is possible to 1.2840 / 45, although the GBP/USD pair will most likely end the week with another low. A decline to 1.2730 will not surprise anyone.

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Analysis of the divergence of GBP / USD for February 15. New bullish divergence will allow the pound to rise slightly

4h

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On a 4-hour chart, the GBP / USD currency pair fell to the correctional level of 38.2% - 1.2765, before reaching it quite a bit. A new bullish divergence was formed in the CCI indicator, which allows traders to expect a reversal in favor of the British currency and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 50.0% - 1.2869. Breaking quotes from the Fibo level of 38.2% will increase the likelihood of the pair starting to grow. Closing quotes below the correction level of 38.2% will work in favor of a further fall in the direction of the next Fibo level of 23.6% - 1.2639.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from September 20, 2018, and January 3, 2019.

1h

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On the hourly chart, the currency pair continues the process of falling and completed closing under the correction level of 76.4% - 1.2799. As a result, on February 15, the process of falling can be continued in the direction of the next Fibo level of 100.0% - 1.2671. In the current chart of emerging divergences, none of the indicators have one. Fixing quotations above the level of 76.4% can be interpreted as a reversal in favor of the currency of England and expect some growth in the direction of the correction level of 61.8% - 1.2878.

The Fibo grid was built on extremes from January 15, 2019, and January 25, 2019.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the GBP / USD pair can be made with the target of 1.2878 and a Stop Loss order below the level of 76.4% if the pair closes above 1.2799 (hourly chart).

Sales of the GBP / USD pair can be made with the target of 1.2671 and a Stop Loss order above the level of 76.4% if the pair closes below the level of 1.2765 (4-hour chart).

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for February 15, 2019

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On December 12, the previously-dominating bearish momentum came to an end when the GBP/USD pair visited the price levels of 1.2500 where the backside of the broken daily uptrend was located.

Since then, the current bullish swing has been taking place until January 28 when the GBP/USD pair was almost approaching the supply level of 1.3240.

That's when the current bearish pullback was initiated around slightly lower price levels near 1.3215 (around the depicted supply levels in RED).

This was followed by a bearish engulfing daily candlestick on January 29. Thus, the GBP/USD pair lost its bullish persistence above 1.3155 as a result.

However, lack of bullish demand was recently being demonstrated on the recent few daily candlesticks.

Hence, the short-term scenario turned bearish towards 1.2820-1.2800 where (50% Fibonacci level) as well as a previous prominent top are located (Highlighted in BLUE) where price action should be watched cautiously.

For the bullish side to regain dominance, bullish breakout above 1.2920 (38.2% Fibonacci) should be re-established early (Low probability).

On the other hand, bearish breakdown below 1.2770 enhances further bearish decline towards the price zone of 1.2690-1.2700 where significant bullish demand will probably be demonstrated.

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February 15, 2019: The EUR/USD pair cannot hold within its daily movement channel.

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Since June 2018, the EUR/USD pair has been moving sideways with slight bearish tendency within the depicted bearish Channel (In RED).

On November 13, the EUR/USD pair demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the current bullish movement above the depicted short-term bullish channel (In BLUE) was initiated.

Bullish fixation above 1.1430 was needed to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1520. However, the market has been demonstrating obvious bearish rejection around 1.1430 few times so far.

The EUR/USD pair has lost its bullish momentum since January 31 when a bearish engulfing candlestick was demonstrated around 1.1514 where another descending high was established then.

On February 5, a bearish daily candlestick closure below 1.1420 terminated the recent bullish recovery.

This allowed the current bearish movement to occur towards 1.1300-1.1270 where the lower limit of the depicted DAILY channel comes to meet the pair.

The EUR/USD pair is failing to hold within its daily channel with early signs of bullish weakness being manifested on the chart.

On the other hand, a bearish flag pattern may be confirmed if bearish persistence below 1.1250 is achieved on the daily-chart basis. Pattern target is projected towards 1.1000.

Trade Recommendations:

Intraday traders can look for a counter-trend BUY entry around the current price levels (1.1285) (lower limit of the depicted movement channel).

TIGHT Stop Loss to be located below 1.1240 while T/P level to be located around 1.1350 and 1.1420.

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Trading Plan 02/15/2019

On Thursday, data on US retail sales for December was very weak. This is another strong argument against the Fed rate hike, as well as the dollar growth.

The EUR/USD rate has not gone out of the long range yet.

We are ready to sell the euro from 1.1245.

We are ready to buy euros from 1.1315.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/GBP for February 15, 2019

EUR/GBP is currently trading at the edge of 0.8800-50 resistance area from where the price is expected to sink lower following the overall downtrend. The eurozone has been posting evidence of an economic slowdown. As a result, EUR is set to lose ground versus GBP in the coming days despite the BREXIT uncertainty.

The question is still open whether the UK will leave the EU with or without a divorce deal. Speculators are currently debating on the benefits and pitfalls of each decision. As the UK is facing political turmoil, the BREXIT situation is getting more mysterious. First Prime Minister Theresa May should get a BREXIT deal approved by the British parliament. Then she will decide whether to delay BREXIT or thrust the economy with NO DEAL. No Deal BREXIT is sure to pose a global threat where GBP will be the main victim. The European Union is not in the mood of delaying BREXIT which might lead to NO DEAL BREXIT. This worst-case scenario will certainly send shock waves across global financial markets.

The weak GDP report from the UK was the biggest nuisance for GBP buyers this week which is expected to be overcome in the coming days as the eurozone weakness averts the market sentiment away from EUR. Moreover, UK CPI and Manufacturing Production reports also revealed downbeat data.

Meanwhile, GBP has been the weaker currency in the pair. On the other hand, downbeat economic reports from the eurozone also bearish for EUR. If the UK presents better economic reports in the coming days, this may encourage GBP to gain momentum. As a result, the pair may carry on with its decline in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently trading at the edge of 0.8800-50 from where the recent bullish corrective weakness is expected to lead the price lower towards 0.8650 support area in the coming days. As the price remains below 0.90 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

SUPPORT: 0.8500, 0.8650

RESISTANCE: 0.8850, 0.8950, 0.90

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Forecast for EUR / USD pair on February 15, 2019

EUR / USD pair

Euro gradually strengthens the upward correction. Trading volumes yesterday were the largest since the beginning of the week, which may indicate the closure of short positions on the euro. Today, President Trump will sign the law on the US budget for the current year, which will not include the construction of a wall with Mexico. As a "sanction" for congressmen, Trump will introduce a state of emergency to use presidential powers to increase funding. This situation is better for the investor to watch from the side.

On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator signal line consolidated in the growth zone but the price is still below the balance line and the MACD line. Therefore, the latter becomes the first goal of the ongoing correction at 1.1337. Overcoming the level will allow the price to rise 20 points to a stronger resistance of 1.1357 on the price channel line of the daily chart, where the MACD line is already approaching.

Formal technical conditions for growth are weak because we see only one of them as shown on the indications of the Marlin indicator on H4, other indicators. The situation on a daily basis maintains a declining mood. Therefore, there is a likelihood of renewed decline. In this scenario, the price must go below yesterday's low of 1.1249 then to 1.1215, which will become the immediate goal.

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BITCOIN Analysis for February 15, 2019

Bitcoin is currently trading above $3,600 with the view of a further climb. The price is breaking above the trend line resistance. The price is currently being contained by the Kumo Cloud resistance and held by the dynamic levels like 20 EMA, Tenkan, and Kijun line as support. According to the MACD, the price has not formed any strong Bullish Divergence evidence yet. However, being above $3,500-600 indicates that the bulls are ready to push the price higher in the coming days. As the price breaks above $3,650 with an intraday candle or bar, further bullish pressure is expected to continue in the coming days with a target at $3,750 and later towards $4,000.

SUPPORT: 3,000, 3,500, 3,600

RESISTANCE: 3,750, 4,000

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for February 15, 2019

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Overview:

The NZD/USD pair breached resistance which had turned into strong support at the level of 0.6705 this week. The level of 0.6705 coincides with a golden ratio, which is expected to act as major support today. The RSI is considered to be overbought, because it is above 70. The RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it is still strong above the moving average (100). Besides, note that the pivot point is seen at the point of 0.6882. This suggests that the pair will probably go up in the coming hours. Accordingly, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. In other words, buy orders are recommended to be placed above 0.6800 with the first target at the level of 0.6882. From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.6882 and further to the level of 0.6984. The level of 0.6984 will act as strong resistance. However, if there is a breakout at the support level of 0.6705, this scenario may become invalidated.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for February 15, 2019

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Overview:

The USD/CHF pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.0003. Today, the first support level is currently seen at 1.0003, the price is moving in a bullish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set above the strong support at the level of 0.9982, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. This support has been rejected three times confirming the veracity of an uptrend. According to the previous events, we expect the USD/CHF pair to trade between 1.0003 and 1.0067. So, the support stands at 1.0003, while daily resistance is found at 1.0067. Therefore, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.0003. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the spot of 1.0003 with the first target at the level of 1.0067; and continue towards 1.0103 and 1.0140. However, if the USD/CHF pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.0030 today, the market will decline further to 0.9908.

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/CHF for February 15, 2019

USD has been badly hurt by dismal retail sales despite hawkish statements from some FED officials. The FED's optimism about the healthy domestic economy encouraged USD rally, thus taking the shine off CHF.

Recently JP Morgan cut its estimate for the US economic growth. Experts do not assume the FED to raise rates as the same fast pace as in 2018. The median forecast suggests at least 2 rate hikes this year. However, according to JP Morgan the US central bank is likely to raise rates only once to 3% and by 2020 the maximum rate will be at 3.5%. According to the market research note "the more dovish path should allow the economy to grow faster than previously projected". FED's Governor Brainard recently stated that she is quite positive with the Balance Sheet normalization which will encourage further economic growth.

As for the US-China trade talks, Trump's administration is indecisive yet which confused the market sentiment about progress in the trade deal. Today US Empire State Manufacturing Index report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 7.1 from the previous figure of 3.9, Import Prices could have increased to -0.1% from the previous value of -1.0%, Capacity Utilization Rate is expected to show a slight increase to 78.8% from the previous value of 78.7%, and Industrial Production is expected to decrease to 0.1% from the previous value of 0.3%.

On the other hand, recently Switzerland's CPI report was published unchanged at -0.3% which was expected to tick up to -0.2% and PPI dropped to -0.7% from the previous value of -0.6% which was expected to increase to -0.4%. The economic calendar today lacks economic data from Switzerland. Despite mixed economic data, CHF could gain momentum against USD. It indicates that the market sentiment is currently against USD because the US Fed could not raise interest rates this year and investors lack confidence about a beneficial trade deal between the US and China. To make things worse, dismal retail sales caused USD weakness. Until the US provides solid economic data, CHF is expected to keep momentum in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. USD has been dominating in the currency pair which recently got counter trend pressure from CHF. As the trend is bullish, despite the recent bearish pressure the pair is expected to regain momentum with the view of trading higher as the bullish trend is non-volatile. As the price remains above 1.00 area with a daily close, the bullish pressure is expected to continue further.

SUPPORT: 0.9850, 0.9950, 1.00

RESISTANCE: 1.0130, 1.0200

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: NON-VOLATILE

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Trading recommendations for the EURUSD currency pair - placement of trading orders (February 14)

The Euro / Dollar currency pair for the last trading day showed a high volatility of 82 points. As a result, the price returned to the limits of the range level. From the point of view of technical analysis, we have a return to the range level of 1.1280 / 1.1300, in an attempt to resume the downward movement. However, we received a temporary run, and after which, the quote quickly rolled back to the range. The blame for this fluctuation is put forth on the informational and news background. In a more precise basis, we have to rely on yesterday's statistics. We will begin with Europe, where such an important indicator was published as industrial production data. No one waited for a miracle to happen, everyone knew that the indicators would be even worse: Prev. -3.0% ---> Prog. -3.2%, the result turned out worse than expected, -4.2%. As predicted, this circumstance terrified the euro, and thus, it encountered a decline. In the afternoon, everyone waited for the release of the key news regarding inflation in the United States. Experts predicted a decline from 1.9% to 1.5%, which would clearly contribute to the recovery of the euro after the recent decline. Inflation comes in at 1.6% instead of 1.5%, and this one tenth was enough to give sellers enthusiasm to further reduce. Returning to the information background, we have another rumor regarding the Brexit agreement. This time, an ITV journalist overheard a conversation with Brexit's leading adviser Theresa May on Olli Robbins at a bar in Brussels. The essence of the overheard was that Prime Minister Theresa May specifically pulls with the date of the vote. The current situation would frighten his associates in the Conservative Party which cannot postpone or force them to accept the current agreement as it is. In turn, the Prime Minister of the Netherlands Mark Rutte stated that it's difficult to estimate the consequences of the Brexit agreement for his country. According to him, the authorities only focus on the benefits--since large companies are moving their offices and personnel from Britain to the country.

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Today, in terms of the economic calendar , we are waiting for a considerable amount of data. GDP data in Europe is about approximately 4 square meters. The slowdown in economic growth from 1.6% to 1.2% can be confirmed with last year's data. The retail sales and producer prices statistics were already published in the United States. Prerequisites should also be followed in order to have a stronger dollar.

US 16:30 Moscow time - Producer Price Index (PPI) (YoY) (Jan): Prev. 2.5% ---> Forecast 2.1%

US 16:30 MSK - Retail Sales (YoY): Prev. 4.2% ---> Forecast 4.5%

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the price is clearly trying to fix below the range level of 1.1280 / 1.1300, but still forms a kind of slowdown. It is likely to assume that if the quotation succeeds in getting lower than 1.1240 and the news background in this case is favorable, a further decline to 1.1214 should not be ruled out. Otherwise, stagnation may turn into an amplitude oscillation of 1.1260 / 1.1330.

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Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations, let's consider them:

- We consider buy positions in case of recovery of the upward move and price fixing higher than 1.1350.

- We consider selling positions in the case of price fixing lower than 1.1240, with a perspective of 1.1214 (the first point).

Indicator Analysis

Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF ), we see that in the short, intraday and medium term showed a downward interest on the general background of the market.

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Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation , with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(February 14 was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 45 points. If the downward move continues and the conditional range level is considered to be broken, we will see an increase in volatility. Otherwise, if there is a cyclical move within the range level, the volatility will remain at current values.

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Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.1300 **; 1.1350 *; 1.1440; 1.1550; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1.2100

Support areas: 1.1300 **; 1.1214 **; 1.1120; 1.1000

* Periodic level

** Range Level

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Trading recommendations for the GBPUSD currency pair - prospects for further movement

Over the past trading day, the currency pair Pound / Dollar showed volatility which is almost equal to the average daily of 104 points, as a result of reaching the predicted level. From the point of view of technical analysis, we have an intense decreasing movement, wherein the quotation still managed to reach the predicted level of 1.2770, and then build a stagnation. Meanwhile, the news background had statistical data on retail sales in the United States, where, according to forecasts, growth was expected from 4.1% to 4.5%, however, the result was entirely a different picture. Retail sales display a decrease to 2.3%. Without a doubt, these figures are shocking for the investors, yet what we see on the trading chart is pound / dollar pair - the dollar continued to strengthen. The reason for this kind of anti-resonance lies in the information background, which did not allow the English currency to strengthen, as its fellow euro / dollar did. The essence of the information background was that there was a regular vote in the British Parliament on the subject of an agreement, or you can simply say Theresa May's strategy for succession from the EU. As you can already guess, Theresa May was defeated once again: 303 people were against while 258 are in favor. . Although this vote was technical, this noise was enough to turn the English Pound.

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Today, from the point of view of the economic calendar, market participants are waiting for the data on retail sales in Britain, where growth is expected from 3.0% to 3.4%. This news, coupled with the level of 1.2770, can give impulse to the growth of the pound. Next, we follow the data from the United States, , where industrial production is expected to decrease from 3.2% to 2.1%, which can which can also take into the hands of the pound in constructing a correction.

Moreover, the upcoming trading week in terms of the economic calendar is relatively calm. The week starts with a day off in the United States, where they celebrate the "Presidential Day".

Listed below are the selected most significant events. Also, do not forget about the background information, which spontaneously takes off on the market.

Monday

United States - a day off, celebrating "Presidential Day"

Tuesday

United Kingdom 12:30 MSK - Average wage with bonuses (Dec): Prev. 3.4%

United Kingdom 12:30 MSK - Prev. 20.8K

United Kingdom 12:30 MSK - Unemployment rate (December): Prev. 4.0%

Wednesday

United States 22:00 MSK - Publication of FOMC protocols

Thursday

United States 16:30 MSK - Basic orders for durable goods (m / m) (December): Prev. -0.3% ---> 0.2% forecast

United States 18:00 MSK - Sales in the secondary housing market (Jan): Prev. 4.99M ---> Forecast 5.05M

These are preliminary and subject to change.

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Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see how the quotation with the most accuracy works out the level of 1.2770. The primary stagnation, after the build-up of long positions, which most probably, can lead to a correction. We can contribute more on this news background. The only catch is the unpredictable information background. If there are some rumors about Brexit again, then we will not see anything good in terms of correction.

Based on the available data, it is possible to break down a number of variations. Let us consider them:

- Positions for buying are considered by traders even at the moment of slowdown at 1.2770, more precisely at 1.2800, where it was. Now, the positions are already in place, if they are not there, then it is possible to consider the coordinates 1.2840 which will allow filtering out false oscillations.

- Positions for sale are not removed from the general plan. As I wrote above, in the case of an unpredictable background information, , we can push the level of 1.2770, and in this case, we can monitor this background and clear fixations below the level.

Indicator Analysis

Analyzing the different sector of timeframes (TF ), we see that there was an upward interest against the background of the primary level of 1.2770 in the short term, while intraday and mid-term perspective also maintains a downward interest against the general background of the market.

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Weekly volatilily / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily daily fluctuation, with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(February 15 was based on the time of publication of the article)The current time volatility is 33 points. It can get closer to the daily average.

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Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.2830 *; 1.2920 *; 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.3200 * 1.3300; 1.3440 **; 1.3580 *; 1.3700

Support areas: 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1.2500 *; 1.2350 **.

* Periodic level

** Range Level

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Indicator analysis. Daily review for February 15, 2019 for the pair EUR / USD

On Friday, the price will continue to move up. The first upper target of 1.1313 is the rolling level of 23.6% (yellow dotted line).

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Friday, the price will continue to move up. The first upper target of 1.1313 is the rolling level of 23.6% (yellow dotted line).

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD for February 15. The shortest wave 2 as a sign of overt weakness of the pound

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Wave counting analysis:

On February 14, the GBP / USD pair lost another 40 bp. and broke through the minimum of the estimated wave 1, or a. Thus, there were reasons to assume that wave 2, or b, turned out to be very shortened and had already finished its construction. Now, we waited for at least three waves of 2, or b. Practically, things could turn out differently. If this assumption is right, then the decrease of the instrument will continue now within wave 3, or with targets located near the Fibonacci level of 76.4% and below. On the other side, the news background still supports the US dollar, however, there is no encouraging information from the parliament of UK. The immediate members of the European Union also do not please the buyers of the pound with the information about their preparedness to enter into new negotiations with London.

Shopping goals:

1.3033 - 23.6% Fibonacci

Sales targets:

1.2734 - 61.8% Fibonacci

1.2619 - 76.4% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The wave pattern expects the construction of a new downward wave. Therefore, now, I recommend selling the instrument again with targets located near the estimated marks of 1.2734 and 1.2619, which equalizes to 61.8% and Fibonacci 76.4%.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review for February 15, 2019 for the pair GBP / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Friday, the price will move down. The first lower target of 1.2737 is the recoiling level of 61.8% (blue dotted line).

gbpusd-d1-instaforex-companies-group.png

Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

The price will move down on Friday. The recoiling level of 61.8% (blue dotted line) is the first lower target of 1.2737.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com