Brief trading recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on 09/14/20

analytics5f5f110f0071f.jpg

The EUR/USD pair managed to rebound from the average level of the side channel 1.1700/1.1810/1.1910 (lines No. 1, 2 and 3) and focus on the variable amplitude of 1.1825/1.1875.

A closed cycle of fluctuations by 90% leads to accumulation, which will eventually lead to a natural acceleration at the time of the breakdown of a particular border.

In our case, the amplitude in the values of 1.1825/1.1875 is produced inside the side channel and the breakdown of variable boundaries will lead to price movement towards the main levels 1.1700/1.1810/1.1910.

Let's consider the possible price movements based on the obtained data on the location of the quote and successive fluctuations:

- Buying a pair is recommended at a price above 1.1875 with the prospect of moving to 1.1900-1.1910.

- Selling a pair is recommended at a price below 1.1825 with the prospect of moving to 1.1810. The main sell positions will arise after the price consolidates below the average level of the side channel 1.1700/1.1810/1.1910, with the prospect of moving to 1.1755-1.1700.

analytics5f5f111c86bf4.jpg

The GBP/USD pair has had a downward interest since September began, during which trend lines no. 1, 2 and 3 have appeared, which, combined with cycles, have formed a channel along which the quote moves.

The overall scale of the decline since September 1 is 717 points, where the support level is considered to be 1.2770, where a slowdown in market participants occurs naturally.

Relative to the current situation, there is the same slowdown along the support level of 1.2770, where the oscillation amplitude is 100 points.

We can assume that the movement along the 1.2763/1.2863 trajectory will continue for some time, where market participants will try to regroup their trading forces and resume moving towards the descending channel.

Fulfilling this forecast would confirm the sellers' intention to stay in the market, but due to the high degree of oversold and the price decline by more than 700 points in 11 days, it could lead to instability of short positions, which would result in local surges in the market.

In this case, it is worth considering having a stagnation as a platform for buy and sell positions, that is, it will place two pending orders at once.

- Buying a pair is recommended at a price above 1.2863, with the prospect of moving to 1.2885.

- Selling a pair is recommended at a price below 1.2763, with the prospect of moving to 1.2700-1.2620.

analytics5f5f11282bb9b.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis and trading recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on September 14

Trading recommendations for EUR / USD on September 14

Analysis of transactions

Good data on US inflation rose dollar demand in the market, which resulted in fairly big sell-offs in the EUR / USD pair. It also prompt long positions to not bring significant profit, since the upward movement from 1.1841 was no more than 30 points.

analytics5f5f0d31b0e54.jpg

Today, only a minor report on the volume of industrial production in the eurozone will be released, and it will not have a significant impact on the market. The balance that GBP / USD now has may also be maintained, so bulls should count on another attempt to rise above the resistance level of 1.1859.

analytics5f5f0d3f8c22d.jpg

  • Set long positions from 1.1859 (green line on the chart), and take profit at the level of 1.1916. Strong data on the eurozone manufacturing sector will give confidence to euro bulls.
  • Sell shorts from 1.1825 (red line on the chart), and take profit around the level of 1.1789. Such will lead to a breakout from a fairly important level, which will lead to a rapid decline to the area of last week's lows.

Trading recommendations for GBP / USD on September 14

Analysis of transactions

Good data on UK GDP prevented another huge sell-off in the GBP / USD pair. However, on Friday, every after the test of 1.2807, the pair still went down 25-30 points.

analytics5f5f0d4842d47.jpg

No important statistics is scheduled for release today, so attention will be set on updates on trade relations between the EU and the UK. But since the risk of a complete rupture only increases every day, it is best to bet on the fall of the pound.

analytics5f5f0d513627a.jpg

  • Set long positions from 1.2845 (green line on the chart), and take profit at the level of 1.2920.
  • Sell shorts from 1.2801 (red line on the chart), and take profit at the level of 1.2744.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Any strong movements before the Fed meeting should not be expected. Overview of USD, EUR, and GBP

The CFTC report published on Friday, which tops off the 6-month anniversary of the pandemic announced on March 11, was interesting because it included the market's reaction to the Fed's changing approach to monetary policy, presented by J. Powell at the Jackson Hole virtual symposium. Nevertheless, these changes are minor.

In view of this, the dollar's short position declined slightly. It would be logical to expect a sell-off of the dollar, since the refusal to target the yield curve is a step towards reducing returns, but investors believe otherwise. The total short position on the US dollar, reflected in major currencies, declined by $ 239 million, to a still significant $ 33.2 billion.

analytics5f5f0dafcef78.jpg

The changes are multi-directional for other currencies and prevents us from seeing any general trend. Some of the currencies of the commodity block were being sold (AUD, NZD), while CAD and MXN rose. The protective currencies unanimously reduced their long positions, but at the same time, the total dollar position increased to 45.687 billion.

It is obvious that strategic decisions will be made based on the analysis of the results of the Fed meeting, which will be held on Tuesday-Wednesday. For now, changes in mood on Monday morning are insignificant, a slight increase in enthusiasm is observed amid reports about the resumption of AstraZeneca trials of the coronavirus vaccine. Of course, these are only artificial drivers that affect the information background, since the Russian vaccine which entered the market did not affect the mood in these markets in any way.

EUR/USD

The net long position on the euro declined over the week by $ 320 billion, but is still the highest among the G10 currencies. Moreover, the target price has stopped declining and is showing an upward trend despite the overall improvement in the dollar outlook.

analytics5f5f0dbbdad57.jpg

Last week, the ECB agreed that the euro has primary reasons to grow, and so, there are low chances of leaving the consolidation zone by Wednesday. Given the upward reversal of the target price, we can expect an attempt to break out of the range and consolidate above 1.20. However, a decline is less likely, since in this case, the Fed will have to strongly surprise the markets on Wednesday.

GBP/USD

According to the UK Office for National Statistics last Friday, there was significant progress on a number of parameters. The decline in industrial production slowed down in July from -12.5% to -7.8% y/y, while production growth was 5.2% m/m. Both indicators exceeded forecasts. Meanwhile, inflation remains at a high level of 2.8%, and NIESR estimates GDP growth for the 3 months to August inclusive at 7%.

analytics5f5f0dc7ecbd8.jpg

Despite the seemingly strong growth, the British economy has recovered only slightly more than half of the fall in production and all major industries remain below pre-crisis values. However, we must assume that economic indicators will not change the general approach to assessing the prospects of the pound – the political node on Brexit is in the first place, the policy of the Bank of England is in the second place, and only after them do macroeconomic indicators gain some significance.

Brexit negotiations with the EU are at a dead end. EU officials said the UK should amend its plans "as soon as possible and in any case by the end of the month." Michael Gove, UK spokesman, said there would be no withdrawal of the bill, to which the EU reacted with a harsh comment that it would "not hesitate to use" all legal means if the UK passed the bill in its current form.

In this regard, the pressure on the pound is growing. Despite the fact that the total long position on the pound increased slightly in the reporting week, the movement of capital in the stock and debt markets is not in favor of the pound. The estimated price shows a decline again.

analytics5f5f0dd66a0f3.jpg

The negotiations will resume tomorrow, which will have a decisive impact on the pound's quotes. Technically, the outlook is unclear. We failed to consolidate below the support level of 1.2815, so a pullback to the resistance level of 1.2878 or even to the middle of the 1.3050/70 channel should be expected, but the long-term target is a strong support zone at 1.2620/40.

.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified wave analysis and forecast for EUR/USD, AUD/USD, and GBP/JPY on September 14

EUR/USD

Analysis:

As part of the dominant upward wave, a horizontal correction has been forming on the European currency chart since the end of July. Moreover, it looks like a stretched plane. The wave has entered its final phase and the structure lacks the last descending section.

Forecast:

In the coming session, a change in the price movement rate is expected. Before the reversal, pressure may be applied to the resistance zone. Increased movement and further decline are likely at the end of the day.

Potential reversal zones

Resistance:

- 1.1850/1.1880

Support:

- 1.1780/1.1750

- 1.1690/1.1660

Recommendations:

There are no conditions for purchases on the euro market. Sales are possible within the intraday. It is worth considering the short-term nature of the current decline in the pair.

analytics5f5f0b23d1911.jpg

AUD/USD

Analysis:

The Australian dollar chart has been dominated by a bullish trend since March. The last section started on August 20. Since September 1, a downward movement is formed. This wave does not go beyond the correction of the last trend section. The bullish section from September 9 has a reversal potential.

Forecast:

Today, the price is expected to move in the corridor between the nearest zones. In the first half of the day, pressure on the resistance zone is not excluded. Then you should wait for the exchange rate change and the price move to the support zone.

Potential reversal zones

Resistance:

- 0.7300/0.7330

Support:

- 0.7230/0.7200

Recommendations:

Trading on the pair's market today is only possible during trading sessions. At the same time, it is more reasonable to reduce the lot. Sales of the tool remain the priority.

analytics5f5f0b391b55b.jpg

GBP/JPY

Analysis:

The chart of the British cross since mid-March is dominated by an upward wave of the daily scale. Since the beginning of June, a counter correction has been developing. According to Elliott, this is a shifting plane. To date, the structure looks complete, however, there are no signals of a change of course. The price is within a strong potential reversal zone.

Forecast:

Today, the price is expected to move in the side corridor between the opposite zones. At the European session, pressure on support zones is possible. A change of course is likely in the afternoon.

Potential reversal zones

Resistance:

- 136.70/137.00

Support:

- 135.50/135.20

Recommendations:

According to the expected sequence, short-term trading transactions are possible in the pair's market today. We recommend reducing the lot size.

analytics5f5f0b47a4471.jpg

Explanation: In the simplified wave analysis (UVA), waves consist of 3 parts (A-B-C). The last incomplete wave is analyzed. The solid background of the arrows shows the formed structure, and the dotted background shows the expected movements.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of the instrument's movements in time!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: plan for the European session on September 14. COT reports. Bulls stubbornly defend 1.2777, the stronger the bearish

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Several profitable signals appeared on Friday, both to buy and sell the pound. I paid attention to their probability in my reviews. Let's take a look at the deals and see where you could make money. A signal to sell the pound appeared in the morning after an unsuccessful attempt to go above the resistance of 1.2846, which caused the pair to sharply fall to the low of 1.2777. Returning to the 1.2846 area in the afternoon, and actively selling the pound to the 1.2777 area, where an entry point to long positions appeared, as the bears failed to break through the area below this range.

Very important changes have taken place in the futures market. The Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for September 8 showed a decrease in long positions, but short positions also sharply fell, which indicates profit taking after a fairly large bear market that we saw recently. This is also evidence that further downward momentum may start a gradual slowdown, but much will depend on the terms of the Brexit deal. Short non-commercial positions decreased from 42,901 to 33,860 during the reporting week. Long non-commercial positions fell just slightly, from 49,213 to 46,590. As a result, the non-commercial net position increased to 12,730 against 6,312 weeks earlier.

analytics5f5f109d92bb9.jpg

I do not recommend rushing to open long positions on the GBP/USD pair at the moment. Forming a false breakout in the support area of 1.2777 can lead to an attempt by the bulls to build an upward correction. A more adequate solution would be to open long positions after updating the monthly low of 1.2725, subject to the same false breakout, or buying on a rebound from the 1.2675 support, counting on a correction of 30-40 points within the day. An equally important task for the bulls is to return and settle at the 1.2843 level, where the moving average passes, which plays on the side of the bears. This could cause the pair to grow to the resistance area of 1.2890, where I recommend taking profits. A high of 1.3018 will be the long term goal, but we will only be able to reach it in case of good news on Brexit.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

The actions of sellers will be similar to last Friday. The bears will be more active after the pair falls and settles below support at 1.2777. This forms a signal to sell the pound. In this scenario, one can expect a larger downward movement already in the area of new monthly lows of 1.2725 and 1.2675, where I recommend taking profits. For those who are cautious about selling at lows, it is best to wait for an upward correction that could form in the morning. In this case, a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.2843 will lead to the first sell signal. However, if the market isn't active at this level and the pair rapidly falls, it is best to postpone short positions, as larger players will wait until the 1.2890 high is updated, from which you can sell GBP/USD right on the rebound.

analytics5f5f10a11e606.jpg

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a continuation of the bear market.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

A breakout of the lower border of the indicator in the 1.2777 area will lead to a new wave of decline in the British pound. A breakout of the upper border in the 1.2840 area will lead to an upward correction of the pair.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: plan for the European session on September 14. COT reports. Where will the triangle be terminated? Direction is

To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Several signals to enter the market appeared on Friday. If buyers of the euro were in control before US inflation data was released, then upon its publication, bears took over the market.The 5-minute chart clearly shows how, after the breakout and consolidation above the resistance of 1.1854, the bulls managed to form an excellent entry point into long positions from this level, which caused the price to slightly increase by around 20 points, afterwards the momentum sharply slowed. The bears returned to the 1.1854 level after the release of US data on consumer prices, and having tested it from the bottom up, they formed a good point for opening short positions, which I also drew attention to in my afternoon review.

Important changes in the futures market influenced the alignment of forces, however, the market continues to be on the side of the euro buyers, although the next profit taking, both in long and short positions, speaks of caution among players. The Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for September 8 showed long non-commercial positions declining from 250,867 to 248,683, while short non-commercials also fell from 54,130 to 51,869. Political uncertainty in the United States and central bank meetings have forced many traders to wait and see ahead of the fall marathon. As a result, the positive non-commercial net position slightly rose and reached 196,814, against 196,747, a week earlier.

As for the current situation on the market, the pair's direction depends on how the resulting triangle is terminated. The bulls have the task of returning to resistance at 1.1854 in the morning, consolidating on which forms a good entry point to long positions, counting on rising towards last week's high of 1.1905, which is where I recommend taking profits. The 1.1949 level will be the long term target. If the euro is still under pressure in the morning, and since we do not expect important fundamental data today, then it is best to postpone long positions until a false breakout appears in the 1.1800 area, or buy EUR/USD immediately to rebound from the low of 1.1756 based on a correction of 20-30 points within the day.

analytics5f5f1030720b8.jpg

To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:

The bears will count on a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.1855 in the first half of the day, which will be a signal to sell the euro in order to return to the middle of the side channel at 1.1800. Weak data on industrial production in the eurozone in July could provide help, which is set to be released in morning. Settling below 1.1800 will increase pressure on the pair, which will lead to a retest of the channel's lower limit at 1.1756. Consolidating below this range would open a direct road to the 1.1714 and 1.1648 lows. This scenario will also form a new downward trend. If the bulls continue to push the pair up and try to seize the initiative at the 1.1854 level, just above which the upper limit of the current triangle passes, it is best not to rush to sell, but wait until the 1.1905 high is updated and a false breakout is formed there, or sell EUR/USD immediately on a rebound from the larger resistance of 1.1949 based on a correction of 20-30 points within the day

analytics5f5f10340b172.jpg

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out in the area of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates how the market is uncertain with the direction.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

A breakout of the lower border of the indicator around 1.1825 will increase pressure on the euro. A breakout of the upper border of the indicator in the 1.1865 area will lead to a sharper rise in the euro.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review on GBP / USD for September 14, 2020

The pair moved in a side channel on Friday. The price retested the historical support level of 1.2769 (white dotted line) and then rolled back upward, closing almost at the opening price of the daily candle. Today, the price may resume its upward movement. No news is expected on the economic calendar.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

The market may continue to move upward from the level of 1.2797 (closing of Friday's daily candle) with the target at the resistance level of 1.2922 (red bold line). If this level is tested, the upward trend may continue with the next target of 1.3019 - a 76.4% pullback level (blue dashed line).

analytics5f5f0b473921d.jpg

Figure: 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- Weekly chart - up.

General conclusion:

Today, the price may continue to move upward with the target at the resistance level 1.2922 (red bold line). If this level is tested, the upward trend may continue with the next target of 1.3019 - a 76.4% pullback level (blue dashed line).

Another possible scenario is upon reaching the resistance level 1.2922 (red bold line), the price may move downward with the target at the historical support level of 1.2769 (white dashed line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

FOMC press conference to take place this Tuesday and Wednesday

analytics5f5f13bcafb44.jpg

The forthcoming FOMC press conferences on Tuesday and Wednesday will take place just weeks after the Fed's annual economic policy meeting, during which a new plan, that is, target inflation of more than 2%, was announced.

Indeed, such a decision reduces the need for government intervention and rate hikes to stave off inflation. However, during the announcement, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell omitted details on how the FOMC will be able to achieve the goal, resulting in many economists to speculate that the details of how the central bank is implementing its new structure will remain uncertain at the September meeting.

"We do not expect major policy changes at the September FOMC meeting," Nomura economist Lewis Alexander said.

So far, interest rates will remain at zero level for two years until 2022, and the updated version should include forecasts until 2023.

Powell already noted earlier that slow economic recovery and weak inflationary trends would result in keeping interest rates at zero "for years."

The upcoming Fed press conference, scheduled for Wednesday, will include remarks on the slow pace of economic recovery amid the ongoing pandemic, despite recent positive economic data.

"We expect a significant portion of the questions and answers at the press conference to focus on the recent changes in the monetary policy system," said economists at RBC Capital Markets.

In terms of economic data, the August retail sales report, due on Wednesday, will receive significant attention as orders for consumption declined in late summer due to speculation for a new quarantine.

A separate report, due on Friday, will reflect the consumer's condition from a different perspective. The University of Michigan is set to release its closely monitored consumer polls, which are expected to show that consumer sentiment rose only marginally to an index reading of 75.0 in early September, from 74.1 in August. The index has been steady since April at 71.8, as consumers continue to express concerns about the pandemic and related economic problems.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review on EUR / USD for September 14, 2020

The pair traded upward on Friday but failed to reach the historical resistance level of 1.1912 (blue dotted line). Today, the price may resume its upward movement. No news is expected on the economic calendar.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

The market may move upward from the level of 1.1849 (closing of Friday's daily candle) with the target at the historical resistance level of 1.1912 (blue dotted line). If this level is tested, the upward trend may continue with the next target at the upper fractal 1.2012 (red dotted line).

analytics5f5f08422ffa8.jpg

Figure: 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - down;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- Weekly chart - up.

General conclusion:

Today, the price may move upward with the target at the historical resistance level of 1.1912 (blue dotted line). If this level is tested, the upward trend may continue with the next target at the upper fractal 1.2012 (red dotted line).

Another possible scenario is after testing the historical resistance level of 1.1912 (blue dotted line), the price may move downward with the target of 1.1813 - a 23.6% pullback level (red dotted line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for September 14, 2020

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has been seen rallying from the lows made at the level of 1.1753 towards the level of 61% Fibonacci retracement located at 1.1912. Nevertheless, the bulls were unable to break through this key retracement and the rally was reversed. Currently, the bulls are still trying to lift the price up, but so far no avail as no new local high was made and the market started to consolidate around the level of 1.1852. Any intraday breakout below the level of 1.1813 will accelerate the sell-off towards the level of 1.1753 again, so it is worth to keep an eye on the next developments. The weekly trend remains up,

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2085

WR2 - 1.1993

WR1 - 1.1923

Weekly Pivot - 1.1829

WS1 - 1.1753

WS2 - 1.1670

WS3 - 1.1589

Trading Recommendations:

On the EUR/USD pair the main trend is up, which can be confirmed by almost 10 weekly up candles on the weekly time frame chart and 4 monthly up candles on the monthly time frame chart. Nevertheless, weekly chart is recently showing some weakness in form of a several Pin Bar candlestick patterns at the recent top. This means any corrections should be used to buy the dips until the key technical support is broken. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1445. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2555.

analytics5f5f084526e4a.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for September 14, 2020

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD pair has been seen moving sharply lower during last week and this Monday looks like a down trend continuation. The pair has hit the level of 1.2768 twice, wish is a part of the key short-term demand zone located between the levels of 1.2747 - 1.2889. Any clear violation of this zone will lead to sell-off continuation towards the level of 1.2604 - 1.2587 which is the key long-term support. Moreover, the market keeps trading below the trend line despite the oversold conditions, so the bears are in full control of the market. The immediate technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2979 - 1.3017.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3535

WR2 - 1.3399

WR1 - 1.3036

Weekly Pivot - 1.2895

WS1 - 1.2525

WS2 - 1.2380

WS3 - 1.1994

Trading Recommendations:

On the GBP/USD pair the main, multi-year trend is down, which can be confirmed by the down candles on the monthly time frame chart. The key long-term technical resistance is still seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518 is the reversal level) or accelerate towards the key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1903 (1.2589 is the key technical support for this scenario).

analytics5f5f05fad5deb.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: Pre-Election Regime and Expectation on the September Fed Meeting's outcome

At least in the context of the foreign exchange market, last weekend was relatively calm. Therefore, the Asian session also passed quietly and unnoticed this Monday - at the start of trading, key pairs were trading in the same direction as on Friday. The dollar index tried to develop growth, reaching 93.33 points, but was almost immediately turned down, heading to the base of the 93rd figure. Even despite the relatively good data on the growth of US inflation, which was published at the end of last trading week, traders are still wary of the greenback. The dollar bulls were not helped by the "green numbers." Although the CPI indicators came out better than expected, they did not reflect a breakthrough increase in inflation. At the same time, the dollar is under the yoke of other fundamental problems.

analytics5f5f03fb0d3ce.jpg

Because politics is currently at the forefront, the US currency is gradually "included" in the pre-election regime, reacting more sharply to opinion polls, political scandals, comments, and statements. The third of November, when the US elections will be held, is not far off - but there is still no clear favorite for the presidential race. In particular, according to recent polls, former US Vice President Joe Biden has widened the lead over incumbent President Donald Trump. According to the Financial Times, the democratic leader can collect 269 electoral votes, while the Republican leader - only 122. However, there is one "but" here. The fact is that nine States in the country have not yet decided who they will vote for, and they make up a total of 147 electoral votes. Therefore, it is still very early to talk about a Biden victory, given such a significant number of undecided. The factor of political uncertainty puts background pressure on the greenback, not allowing the currency to "spread its wings" even if there is a good reason.

It is also worth recalling that the US Senate failed to vote on a bill that provided for the allocation of $ 300 billion to overcome the negative consequences of the pandemic last Thursday. This vote was significant, since the Senate is controlled by Republicans, whose representatives, in fact, put this bill on the agenda. However, only 52 senators supported it, while 47 opposed it. There was even one Republican among those who voted against it. This result made it clear that the US economy will remain without additional financial assistance in the near future.

The Democrats insist on passing their bill, which is 10 times the size of the Republican one ($ 3 trillion), while Republicans consider it too expensive. Furthermore, Trump warned a few months ago that if the 3-trillion-dollar law is still passed, he will use the presidential veto power to block its signing. Representatives of the Democratic party, on the contrary, believe that the $ 300 billion bill is scanty and serves as a "patch," rather than a comprehensive aid. As a result, "things are still there" - the issue of helping the economy is mired in a swamp of political battles in the run-up to the presidential election. Meanwhile, the head of the Fed regularly focuses on the need for additional financial injections, given the weak pace of economic recovery in the country.

This week (September 16) the US Federal Reserve will announce the results of its September meeting. The dollar is behaving cautiously for this reason as well. Let me remind you that during the economic Symposium in Jackson hole, Jerome Powell announced that the regulator has revised its monetary policy strategy. In doing so, it signaled a longer period of low rates. Now, for the sake of employment, the Central Bank will be more tolerant of inflation, allowing it to increase above the target two percent level. The market expects additional comments from the Fed on this issue - in particular, how high the regulator will "allow" inflation to climb. Last week, the comments were made by the head of the Federal reserve of Atlanta, Raphael Bostic. According to him, if inflation "does not exceed the Fed's target level by a large amount, we can just wait and do nothing, "tracking the dynamics of other key macroeconomic indicators. It is obvious that at the end of the September meeting, traders plan to hear clearer guidelines from the head of the Federal Reserve. Therefore, until Wednesday, traders of dollar pairs will trade "with an eye" to the upcoming meeting of the US regulator members.

analytics5f5f03f1097cb.jpg

On this account, the dollar is now hung with a kind of "anchors" that do not allow it to develop more or less large-scale growth - even if there are reasons from macroeconomic statistics. The dollar index continues to fluctuate in the range of 92.30-93.30, where it has been since the beginning of August.

Meanwhile, regarding the Euro-dollar pair, there is also a flat. The pair stayed within the 18th figure due to the optimistic and restrained position of the ECB and against the background of weak positions of the US currency. But further growth is questionable because of Brexit. The controversial bill, which essentially crosses out one of the points of the deal, has been submitted to the House of Commons for consideration - and a vote is due this week. Speaking to the British Parliament on Friday, Johnson urged MPs to approve his initiative, despite harsh criticism from Brussels.

Britain and the EU have also affected the Euro, following the upsurge of the political conflict between the two of them. So, the EUR/USD pair's growth will be limited until the situation is resolved. But if the British parliamentarians fail the vote (which I personally do not doubt), the pair will "shoot" to the nearest resistance level of 1.1930 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for September 14, 2020

Crypto Industry News:

Yearn Finance launched yETH vault earlier this week. The protocol attracted over 137,000 ETH on the very first day of its launch. YETH vault pays profits to those who have blocked their resources on the platform. They come from the profits generated by the bonus obtained from ETH blocked on various platforms.

The ETH community has expressed concerns about the unusually large number of blocked ETH resources as the yETH protocol could theoretically control and lead to an unprecedented 51% attack on the Ethereum network.

Vitalik Buterin commented on the whole situation, who replied that the risk associated with a 51% attack against the upcoming update is unjustified. In a tweet, he stated that someone could indeed attempt an attack, but would quickly lose control of the network as a result of the actions of other participants:

"We need to get past the myth that it's * fatal * if one entity gets enough to 51% attack PoS. The reality is they could attack * once *, and then they either get slashed or (if censorship attack) soft-forked away and inactivity-leaked, and they lose their coins so can't attack again ".

Concerns came days after Ethereum Classic experienced its third 51% attack in just one month. The security of this network has been heavily criticized and questioned since then.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair has been moving up in an ascending channel towards the level of $388 where it was capped due to the upper channel line resistance level. The market had made a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern at this level and reversed towards the lower channel line. Currently, the market is consolidating in a narrow zone between the levels of $355.24 - $369.37 and due to the fact, that the last move inside the channel is corrective in nature, more weakness is expected in ETH/USD pair. The next technical support is seen at the level of $332.28 (outside of the channel). The key demand zone is seen between the levels of $305.20 - $321.95 and if violated, then the next key long term support is seen at the level of $288.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $460.14

WR2 - $422.13

WR1 - $395.03

Weekly Pivot - $357.60

WS1 - $326.67

WS2 - $291.16

WS3 - $261.17

Trading Recommendations:

The weekly and monthly time frame trend on the ETH/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. The key mid-term technical support, seen at the level of $364.95 had been violated, but all the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $500.

analytics5f5f0393de49c.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for September 14, 2020

analytics5f5ef0597055e.jpg

GBP/JPY is trying to find the bottom of the red wave iv/. All requirements for the correction from 142.72 have been met. So, it should just be a matter of time before the bottom is in place and a new impulsive rally is in motion. The first indication of a bottom being in place is a break above minor resistance at 136.59 while a break above resistance at 138.38 confirms the low of red wave iv/ and that red wave v/ is in motion.

R3: 137.47

R2: 136.59

R1: 136.14

Pivot: 135.75

S1: 135.42

S2: 134.94

S3: 134.80

Trading recommendation:

We bougth GBP again at 135.55 and we have placed our stop at 135.00.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 14, 2020

analytics5f5eeef6dadab.jpg

EUR/JPY is still in a wave ii correction. The ideal target for this correction is seen between support in the 124.82 - 125.18 area from where a new impulsive rally is expected towards the former peak at 127.08 and ultimately a break above here for a continuation towards 129.24 and possibly even higher.

Short-term resistance is seen at 125.88 and then at 126.12.

R3: 126.25

R2: 126.12

R1: 125.88

Pivot: 125.77

S1: 125.48

S2: 125.21

S3: 124.82

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 124.41 and our stop is placed at 124.35

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/CAD Price Movement On Sept 14, 2020.

analytics5f5ee98a7ac2f.jpg

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the Kiwi is moving in a downslope channe. It failed to break through the 1.3259 level. The USD/CAD pair is under the bears' control. It may decline to 1.3150 as its first target and 1.3118 as its second target. If the pair breaks through both of these levels, it will reach the 1.3035 level. This scenario is likely to occur if the pair does not rise and close above the 1.3207 level.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD/USD Price Movement On Sept 14, 2020.

analytics5f5ee7aac4659.jpg

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the AUD/USD pair is trading sideways between the levels of 0.7137 - 0.7415. After AUD/USD touched the 0.7250 level, it resumed its upward movement. It is trying to reach the 0.7307 level as its first target and the 0.7326 level as its second target. This scenario will come true if the pair does not drop and close bellow the 0.7250 level.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for September 14, 2020

Crypto Industry News:

At a virtual conference hosted by the Brookings Institute, Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England (BoE), stressed that crypto assets are simply "inappropriate for the payment world."

In his prepared comments on the future of cryptocurrencies and stablecoins, Bailey categorized Bitcoin as an asset that "has nothing to do with money." He has also shown hesitant to believe that crypto assets are a suitable investment opportunity as "their value can fluctuate quite, widely and unexpectedly."

This is what Bailey made when he spoke of accelerating the pace of innovation in payments. However, in the case of stablecoins, the governor said it could offer some "useful benefits", such as reducing friction in payments, while warning:

"If stablecoins are to be widely used as a means of payment, they must have standards equivalent to those currently in force for other forms of payment and money transfer through them."

In June, UK-based L3COS submitted a proposal to the Bank of England (BoE) for a blockchain-based operating system that would power the digital currency issued by the central bank. In addition, in March, the BoE published an in-depth discussion on CBDC which analyzed the rapidly changing payment landscape and the potential role that CBDCs could play in supporting a bank's mandate to manage monetary and financial stability.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair keeps hovering around the level of $10,000 again as this is very important psychological level for market participants. The market has been consolidating in a narrow range located between the levels of $9,825 - $10,586. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of $10,890 and $10,940 and the key short-term technical support is seen at the level of $9,922. The market conditions are oversold and the momentum remains neutral on H4 time frame chart. The weekly time frame trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $11,302

WR2 - $10,908

WR1 - $10,609

Weekly Pivot - $10,206

WS1 - $9,887

WS2 - $9,466

WS3 - $9,157

Trading Recommendations:

The weekly trend on the BTC/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. All the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $13,712. The key mid-term technical support is seen at the level of $10,000.

analytics5f5effd5edc68.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade the EUR/USD currency pair on September 14? Plan for opening and

Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair.

analytics5f5efa04a6f26.jpg

The EUR/USD currency pair continued its almost sideways correction movement during Monday night trading after a surge last week up to the level of 1.1903 and a subsequent pullback to the initial levels. Thus, at this time, the pair's quotes are moving more sideways than up or down. However, we managed to form a small upward trend line. It cannot be concluded that the trend is now upward since it is too short-term. However, if the price is fixed below, it will be possible to conclude that the downward movement will resume. Thus, we are still inclined to the option in which the fall in quotes will continue. The main thing is that the markets will stir up a little. At the same time, we remind novice traders that all this time (for more than a month and a half), the euro/dollar pair continues to trade inside the side channel of 1.17-1.19. There were only two attempts to leave this channel, however, each time the price invariably returned to it. Thus, we still do not expect a pair below 1.1700.

On September 14, novice traders are advised to pay attention to one macroeconomic report – industrial production in the European Union. Industrial production is an important indicator for any economy, and the head of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, has repeatedly emphasized the recovery of this indicator after the crisis. However, the direct reaction of traders to this report is rarely strong. The forecast for July is -8% in annual terms and +4% in monthly terms. This means that experts expect production to grow by 4% compared to June. If the forecasts come true and are exceeded, the euro currency may receive very restrained support from market participants. Weaker real values of this indicator can help quotes overcome a small trend line and resume falling. In general, most likely, trading today will be quite boring and sluggish. The general fundamental background (such topics as the trade war with China, the US presidential election, the "coronavirus" in America, and the possible constitutional crisis) cannot take the pair out of the range of 1.17-1.19 for a long time. Thus, even the appearance of news on one of these topics is unlikely to help at the beginning of the new week to leave the side channel.

As of September 14, the following scenarios are possible:

1) It is still not recommended for novice traders to consider buying the pair at this time, since the price bounced from the level of 1.1903, which is the upper line of the side channel, so there is a high probability of continuing the downward movement. Also, there is not a single pattern that would support increasing trading at this time. Accordingly, buyers need to wait for the formation of this most upward trend or consolidation of the price above the level of 1.1903.

2) Sales now still look more attractive, if only because traders failed to overcome the level of 1,1903. However, the downward trend is not expressed by any technical patterns (trend lines, channels, etc.). We only have an upward trend line. If the price is fixed below it, it will be a signal for new sales of the pair with the targets of support levels 1.1813 and 1.1781. The MACD indicator is near zero, which indicates that the movement is weak and there is no trend. This type of traffic may continue throughout Monday.

What's on the chart:

Price support and resistance levels – the levels that are targets when opening purchases or sales. You can place Take Profit levels near them.

Red lines – channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate which direction is preferable to trade now.

Up/down arrows – show when you reach or overcome which obstacles you should trade up or down.

MACD indicator(10,20,3) – a histogram and a signal line, the intersection of which is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use it in combination with trend lines(channels, trend lines).

Important speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market to avoid a sharp reversal of the price against the previous movement.

Beginners in the Forex market should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management is the key to success in trading over a long period.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on September 14, 2020

EUR/USD

The euro has not completely recovered from last week's ECB meeting and rose by 32 points on Friday. The price also remains above the balance and MACD indicator lines on the daily chart, while the Marlin oscillator remains in the downward trend zone. We expect the price to settle under the MACD line, below 1.1780 and also fall further to 1.1650.

analytics5f5eebb94ca91.jpg

The price is below the MACD indicator line on the four-hour chart. The MACD line itself, which also shows the trend's direction, lies in the horizon. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator also develops horizontally. The short-term trend is neutral.

analytics5f5eebbc4b794.jpg

There is a possibility that the price will go above the MACD line (1.1850) and settle above it. In this case, the price can reach the Thursday high of 1.1917 and higher to the border of the price channel of 1.1905. The main scenario of the beginning of the week suggests consolidating the price at 1.1780 and further decline. We are waiting for developments.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for GBP/USD on September 14, 2020

GBP/USD

The pound sterling was not able to develop a corrective growth last Friday, so it ended the day by falling, but the correction receives a new impetus today in the Asian session, the price went above the 1.2812 level, heading towards the 1.2912 correction target at the 76.4% Fibonacci level. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is moving up, which is a signal for a correction.

analytics5f5ee93d8f5a0.jpg

The price continues to converge with Marlin on the four-hour chart. We are waiting for the correction to end at the target level of 1.2912, and then a reversal into a new downward trend with targets at 1.2725, 1.2645.

analytics5f5ee940992e0.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for AUD/USD on September 14, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar slightly rose last Friday, but did not go beyond the limits of the previous day. The MACD line stopped the growth on the daily chart.

B9PUE2qXKzxboevoJq-ypX32cw3kEn1Uz_d8M7Cb

The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is reflected down from the neutral line for the second consecutive time. The potential for a reversal remains. The first target for the downward movement will be the Aug 12 low at 0.7110.

a2cVetJ5P2dXUgUEYHFsfcLxESVCA8xUOjsYTTh1

Buyers are primarily concerned with the Australian dollar. The price is above the balance indicator line on the four-hour chart. If the price moves below the low of 0.7249, it is likely to shift under the balance line, which will make it much easier for it to prepare the base for movement towards the designated target of 0.7110 (August 12 low). Leaving the price below 0.7249 can also take the Marlin oscillator into the negative zone, that is, the market will receive an additional technical sign of further decline.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for USD/JPY on September 14, 2020

USD/JPY

The situation on the US stock market is beginning to improve. Friday's close was already mixed: Nasdaq -0.60%, S&P 500 0.05%, Dow Jones 0.48%. This situation makes it possible for the yen's rate to stay in a narrow consolidation for the third day. The price is located between the balance and MACD indicator lines on the daily chart, while the Marlin oscillator is in the growth area. We are waiting for the price to go over the MACD line and reach the first bullish target of 106.52 - a test of the embedded line of the price channel of the monthly timeframe.

analytics5f5ee37a891ae.jpg

The price is above the MACD line on the four-hour chart, and it is settling above this line, which is a positive sign for growth. But the price is below the balance indicator lines (red) while the Marlin oscillator is moving to the right, still in the negative trend zone, this makes it possible to break through the support of the MACD line (106.00), and if the price falls below the September 9 low (105.80), then the price could go to the area where two trend lines intersect (105.18).

analytics5f5ee37d62f4c.jpg

Waiting for developments.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Likelihood of GBPUSD growth increases this week

The pair's sharp fall in the first half of September made it possible for a downward reversal pattern to appear. The pair ended last week below the monthly CZ of September. This indicates an increased likelihood of returning to the specified area. The target is 1.2865. The probability of testing this level is 75%.

analytics5f5e9bc39b936.jpg

Trading plans should consider that the pair is going beyond the average monthly move. Increased volatility may lead to changes in the margin requirements for futures. This, in turn, will increase the range of control zones. An important component in making the decision to buy is forming a false breakout pattern of last week's low.

This pattern is required in order to implement large limit orders that might be below the June high. It is important not to rush with buy positions until one of the days closes higher than the previous one.

analytics5f5e9bc6a0b87.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EURUSD longs in the second half of September

The upward long-term momentum stopped in August, which made it possible for an accumulation zone to appear. Buyers dictated the end of last week. This led to forming a reversal pattern in order to continue growth. It is important to understand that strengthening the euro is still the mid-term trend. Moving down should be seen as an opportunity to buy an instrument at better prices.

analytics5f5e96f3a5301.jpg

Based on last month's movement, we can see that a strong support zone is being created. It acts as a springboard for the pair's growth.

You can get very favorable prices for longs in case of a deeper corrective movement before the monthly CZ for September. This pattern has a lower likelihood, but is necessary as a back-up plan. The September high is still the main growth target, so some of the buy positions must be consolidated when it is updated.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com