USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 17, 2016

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On May 16, a bullish pullback towards 1.3000 (61.8% Fibonacci level) was expected to offer a valid signal to sell the USD/CAD pair. However, a lack of a significant bearish rejection was manifested during recent consolidations.

On May 18, temporary bullish fixation above 1.3000 (61.8% Fibonacci level) opened the way towards the 1.3180 level where significant bearish pressure was originated.

Bearish persistence below 1.3000-1.2970 (61.8% Fibonacci level) was needed to enhance bearish momentum in the market.

However, recent signs of bullish recovery were manifested around the price level of 1.2650 on June 9.

Daily fixation above 1.2980 (61.8% Fibonacci level) allows a quick bullish movement towards 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci level) where price action should be watched for a significant bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry.

On the other hand, conservative traders should consider the current daily fixation below 1.3000 as a valid SELL entry. Initial T/P levels should be located at 1.2800 and 1.2700.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 17, 2016

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Bullish persistence above 0.6550 (the depicted support) was necessary to keep the price moving towards higher bullish targets.

In February and March, signs of bearish rejection (triple-top reversal pattern) were expressed around the price level of 0.6750 until April when a bullish breakout above 0.6750 and 0.6860 was executed.

Later on May 6, daily candlestick closure below the 0.6850 level enhanced a quick bearish movement towards 0.6750 where bullish rejection was expected to be applied. However, obvious bearish closure below 0.6750 was achieved on May 24.

On May 30, obvious bullish rejection was expressed around the price level of 0.6675 (the lower limit of the depicted channel). That's why, the recent bullish breakout is taking place above 0.6860.

As long as the NZD/USD pair kept trading above 0.6860, further bullish advance was expected towards the price zone around 0.7200 (upper limit of the depicted channel).

As anticipated, the price zone of 0.7150 - 0.7200 (upper limit of the depicted channel) offered a profitable SELL trade. T/P levels should be located at 0.6970, 0.6900, and 0.6850. S/L should be set as a daily candlestick closure above 0.7300.

Note the Head and shoulders reversal pattern on the daily chart.

Confirmation requires DAILY candlestick closure below 0.6970 (Neckline). Projection targets extend down to 0.6760 and 0.6690 levels.

On the other hand, the price zone between 0.6760-0.6700 constitutes a support zone to be watched for a possible BUY entry if the current bearish swing extends below 0.7000.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for August 17, 2016

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair hit the weekly resistance 1 yesterday. But, it dropped down in order to bottom at the point of 0.7275. Today, the pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as long as it remains above the level of 0.7192 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement). Hence, the major support was already set at the level of 0.7192. Moreover, the double bottom is also coinciding around the major support today. Additionally, the RSI is still calling for a strong bullish market as well as the current price is also above the moving average 100. Therefore, it will be advantageous to buy above the current level of 0.7192 with the first target at 0.7258 in order to retest the weekly resistance 1. From this point, if the pair closes above the weekly resistance 1 of 0.7258 on the H4 chart, the USD/CHF pair may resume its movement to 0.7342 to form a double top. Moreover, it should be noted that it is likely to trade in a higher range as long as it remains above the support (0.7192), which is expected to act as support today. Therefore, there is a possibility that the NZD/USD pair will move upwards and the structure does not look corrective. However, stop loss should always be taken into account, accordingly, it will be beneficial to set the stop loss below the last bearish wave at 0.7192.
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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for August 17, 2016

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Since January 2016, bullish persistence above 1.4500 was mandatory to maintain enough bullish strength in the market.

However, the previous weekly candlesticks maintained their bearish persistence below the depicted weekly supply zone (below 1.4470), which allowed further bearish decline to occur.

The prominent demand level located at 1.3845 (historical bottom that goes back to March 2009) provided a significant bullish rejection and a bullish engulfing weekly candlestick on February 26.

Bullish fixation above 1.4670 allowed further bullish advancement initially towards 1.4950 (Weekly Supply) where significant bearish rejection was expressed.

The price zone between 1.3845 and 1.3550 (Historical bottoms in January 2009) was considered a significant demand zone to be watched for bullish recovery.

However, by the end of June, a significant bearish breakdown below 1.3550 was expressed as seen on the depicted charts.

Bearish persistence below the demand level at 1.3550 enhances the bearish scenario towards 1.2700 (the nearest bearish projection target) where price action should be watched for a possible short-term BUY entry.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.3845-1.4040 now constitutes the recent supply zone to be watched for new SELL entries if any bullish pullback extends above 1.3550.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for August 17, 2016

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In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 where historical bottoms were previously set in July 2012 and June 2010. Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected towards 0.9450.

In March 2015, the EUR/USD bears challenged the next monthly demand level around 1.0570, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

Later in April 2015, a strong bullish recovery was observed around the mentioned demand level. However, next monthly candlesticks (September, October, and November) reflected a strong bearish rejection around the area of 1.1400-1.1500.

Again In February 2016, the depicted price levels around 1.1400-1.1500 acted as a significant supply zone during the bullish pullback.

That is why, recent bearish rejection was expected around the current price levels (note the monthly candlesticks of May and June).

In the long term, the level of 0.9450 will remain a projected bearish target if the current monthly candlestick comes to close below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0570.

On the other hand, note that a monthly candlestick closure above 1.1400 invalidates this bearish outlook on an intermediate-term basis (low probability).

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The long-term outlook for the EUR/USD pair remains bearish as the monthly chart illustrates. Bearish fixation below 1.1000 is needed to enhance this bearish scenario.

On July 8, recent bullish recovery was manifested around the price zone of 1.1000-1.0950 (previous consolidation range), but on July 15 significant bearish pressure was applied around 1.1150.

This week, bearish fixation below 1.1000 will be needed to allow a bearish decline to 1.0820 (key level 2) where price actions should be watched for a possible short-term BUY entry.

On the other hand, the EUR/USD pair kept trading above the price zone of 1.1000-1.0950 (previous consolidation range). Hence, further bullish advance towards 1.1170 and 1.1220 was executed as expected.

Price action should be watched around the price zone of 1.1250 (Supply Level 1) for a valid SELL entry if enough bearish rejection is expressed. However, temporary bullish breakout is being expressed above 1.1250.

Note that bullish persistence above 1.1250 allows further bullish advance towards 1.1400 (Supply Level 2) where a better SELL entry can be offered.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for August 17, 2016

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Overview:

  • As expected the USD/CHF pair continues to move downwards from the level of 0.9684. Yesterday, the pair dropped from the level of 0.9684 (this level of 0.9684 is coincides with the ratio of 38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to the support around 0.9621. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.9684 followed by 0.9735, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.9621. Hence, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 0.9621, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the new support level of 0.9621 (23.6% Fibonacci). Moreover, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend, as the trend is still showing strength below the moving average (100). Thus, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below 0.9621, so it will be good to sell at 0.9621 with the first target of 0.9571. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 0.9520. The daily strong support is seen at 0.9520. However, the stop loss should always be taken into account, for that it will be reasonable to set your stop loss at the level of 0.9735. According to the previous events, the USD/CHF pair is still moving between the levels of 0.9680 and 0.9520; for that we expect a range of 160 pips.
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Gold analysis for August 17, 2016

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Since our previous analysis, gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $1,340.65 in a high volume. According to the 30M time frame, there is an intraday downward trend. I found potential ending of ABC corrective phase, which is a sign that buying looks risky. Strong resistance level is set at the price of $1,346.00 (Fibonacci expansion 100% corective). My advice is to watch for selling opportunities on the pullbacks. First support is set at the price of $1,340.95. If the price breaks the level of $1,340.90 in a high volume, we may see potential testing of $1,335.50 (Fibonacci expansion 100%).

Hourly Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,350.40

R2: 1,351.20

R3: 1,352.60

Support levels:

S1: 1,347.75

S2: 1,346.90

S3: 1,345.60

Trading recommendations for today: Buying looks risky, watch for selling opportunities.

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EUR/NZD analysis for August 17, 2016

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Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 1.5565 in a high volume. The price broke our bullish flag formation and I am expecting testing of 1.5660 (Fibonacci expansion 100%). According to the 1H time frame, there is big strength in the background, which caused larger demand for EUR/NZD. There is also irregular ABC flat formation finished, which is a sign that we may see higher price. The trend is upward and selling looks very risky. Watch for buying opportunities on the dips.

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.5555

R2: 1.5585

R3: 1.5630

Support levels:

S1: 1.5450

S2: 1.5425

S3: 1.5375

Trading recommendations for today: Watch for buying opportunities.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 17, 2016

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Wave summary:

The resistance line near 1.5540 is finally being broken, confirming the the corrective low is in place at 1.5187 and the next impulsive rally higher to 1.5840 and above is developing. In the longer term, we are looking for much higher levels closer to 1.6931 and above.

Support at 1.5366 should now be able to protect the downside or else one more decline to just below 1.5187 must be expected.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.5410 and will move our stop higher to 1.5360. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 1.5466 or upon a break above 1.5577 and use the same stop at 1.5360.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 17, 2016

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Wave summary:

Short term-resistance at 114.03 needs to be broken towards the upside to indicate more upside towards 116.92 and above here will confirm that the next impulsive rally higher to 122.00 and above is developing.

As long as minor resistance at 114.03 is able to protect the upside, more downside pressure can not be excluded for a move closer to important support at 110.79 and below here will call for a final decline to 106.03.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 113.30 and will move out stop higher to 112.75. If you are not long EUR yet, then wait for a break above 114.03 to buy and use the same stop at 112.75.

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Global macro overview for 17/08/2016

Global macro overview for 17/08/2016:

The main fundamental event of the week, the FOMC Meeting Minutes, is scheduled for the release at 06:00pm GMT today. Just yesterday, New York Fed President William Dudley reminded the markets that a September rate is possible, adding that the US elections will not affect the Fed decision. Moreover, as we remember from last NFP data, the USD has benefited from strong US employment fundamentals, but those have been offset by way worse than expected consumer spending data last Friday.This is why the CME Group FedWatch tool is currently pricing a 85% chance that the interest rate will stay at the same level and only 15% of a hike probability. In conclusion, the investors' disbelief of a September hike is mainly due to the US presidential election cycle (denied by Dudley) and disappointing data on the US economy.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture in the daily time frame before the important news release. The market is trading below the 55, 100 and 200 daily moving average, but no new low has been made since the rejection from the 61% Fibo level. Nevertheless, the key to the upside is still the upper golden trend line and only a clear violation above this level would pave the way towards higher prices. The next support is seen at the level of 94.42 and the next resistance is seen at the level of 96.72.

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Global macro overview for 17/08/2016

Global macro overview for 17/08/2016:

The pre-Brexit July UK labour market report in the form of a Claimant Count Change, Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings Index have been just published this morning. The results are pretty much in line with expectations. Nevertheless, the UK Claimant Count Change decreased from 0.9k to -8.6k despite the market expectations of +9.5k new unemployment claims. The June ILO unemployment rate was logged at the level of 4.9% vs 4.9% expected and 4.9% previously. The June average weekly earnings was at the level of 2.4% vs 2.4% expected and 2.3% in May. In conclusion, the data did not discourage markets. Moreover, the number of unemployment claims was better than expected. Nevertheless, it does not improve rather negative UK economical outlook as all the data were collected before the Brexit vote.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture in 4H time frame. The market is still trading inside the horizontal congestion zone between the levels of 1.3535 - 1.2785. The higher time frame trend is still pointing down, but so far no decisive breakout above any of the important levels has been made. The next support is seen at the level of 1.2850 and the next resistance at the level of 1.3061.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for August 17, 2016

General overview for 17/08/2016:

The market has bottomed at the level of 1.2798 and now the counter-trend corrective cycle in the form of a triangle might be in progress. When this corrective cycle is completed, then one more wave to the downside is expected before any meaningful bounce will happen.

Support/Resistant:

1.2798 - Intraday Support

1.2822 - WS1

1.2894 - Intraday Resistance

1.3006 - Weekly Pivot

1.3091 - WR1

Trading recommendations:

The buy orders from yesterday should now be closed as the TP level had been hit. Currently day traders should refrain from trading and wait for the corrective cycle to complete before entering any transaction.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for August 17, 2016

General overview for 17/08/2016:

The market has bounced from the intraday support at the level of 112.31, but did not manage to break out above the intraday resistance at the level of 114.01. Only a sustained break out above this level would mark the bottom of the wave ii at the level of 112.35 and make the impulsive rally in wave iii possible. The invalidation level for this scenario is still at the intraday support at the level of 112.31, nevertheless the bullish divergence between the price and momentum oscillator indicates a possible upside rebound.

Support/Resistant:

112.31 - Intraday Support

112.42 - WS1

113.17 - Weekly Pivot

113.65 - WR1

114.02 - Intraday Resistance

114.48 - WR2

114.96 - WR3

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should consider opening buy orders from current price levels with SL below the level of 112.30 and TP at the level of 114.00.

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AUD/NZD buy again above major support

Price tested our stop loss level and reversed above this strong support level at 1.0550 (horizontal support, Fibonacci retracement, bullish candlestick reversal). We remain bullish looking to buy above this level for a small push up to 1.0615.

RSI (34) is also seeing major support at the 34% level where we expect a bounce from.

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Buy above 1.0550. Stop loss at 1.0503. Take profit at 1.0615.

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EUR/JPY near channel resistance, remain bearish.

Price is close to our channel resistance as we look to sell on strength below 114.00 resistance (overlap resistance, channel resistance, Fibonacci retracement) for a further drop to 111.00 support (long-term Fibonacci retracement, key swing low support).

RSI (21) is close to major resistance at 65%

Stochastics (21,5,3) is also right below 84% major resistance where we expect a drop from.

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Sell below 114.00. Stop loss at 115.40. Take profit at 111.00.

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USD/CHF profit target reached, turn bullish.

Price has dropped as expected and reached our profit target from previously. We now look to go bullish from here for a small rise to at least 0.9710 above our 0.9610 support (Fibonacci projection, descending support line, EUR/USD correlation).

Stochastics (21,5,3) is also seeing a bounce from the 6% support level signaling a bullish move in progress.

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Buy above 0.9610. Stop loss at 0.9520. Take profit at 0.9710.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for August 17, 2016

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD has moved upwards by 170 pips this week, testing the resistance line at 1.1300. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the chart, and further upward movement is possible, as price goes above the resistance line at 1.1300, targeting another resistance lines at 1.1350 and 1.1400.

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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF has moved downwards by 150 pips this week, testing the support level at 0.9600. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart, and further downward movement is possible, as price goes below the support level at 0.9600, targeting another support levels at 0.9550 and 0.9500.

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GBP/USD: This pair rallied 150 pips yesterday, without being able to pose any threat to the extant bearish outlook. Price would need to move upwards by at least, 300 pips, before there can be a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart. Otherwise, the event of yesterday would simply be another opportunity to go short at a better price.

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USD/JPY: This is a bear market in the short term. The EMA 11 is below the EMA 56 and the RSI period 14 is below the level 50. All bulls' effort in the market is expected to be scuttled. Then bears might be able to push price towards the demand levels at 99.50 and 99.00; though that would require strong selling pressure.

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EUR/JPY: It can be said that the EUR/JPY consolidated yesterday, in the context of a downtrend. Price is expected to move further downwards this week, reaching the demand zones at 112.50 and 112.00; especially as EUR is expected to be weakened further today or tomorrow.

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Daily analysis of USDX for August 17, 2016

USDX had another bearish session yesterday, and now it's performing a consolidation below the 95.00 handle. Currently, the index is trading below the 200 SMA on the H1 chart, fcing the support around the 95.65 price zone. A breakout below this area should open the doors to reach the 94.32 level, which is the next buyers' area of interest.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 95.19 / 95.51

H1 chart's support levels: 94.65 / 94.32

Trading recommendations for today: based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 94.65, take profit is at 94.32 and stop loss is at 95.00.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for August 17, 2016

GBP/USD rallied above the 1.3000 psychological zone, following the UK inflation figures that came more positive than expected. Currently, the pair is hovering above the 200 SMA on the H1 chart, and it's looking to test the resistance level of 1.3085, where a breakout should happen in order to test the 1.3170 level.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3085 / 1.3170

H1 chart's support levels: 1.3000 / 1.2894

Trading recommendations for today: based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.3000, take profit is at 1.2894 and stop loss is at 1.3108.

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