Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for Aug 29, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


1. The GBP/CHF pair has been stalling at 1.5200 levels for a few trading sessions now, as seen here. Also, the trend line resistance is passing through the same region. It is recommended to initiate 50% of short positions at the current levels, risk remains at 1.5350.


2. Support is seen at 1.4950, followed by 1.4780 and lower while resistance is seen at 1.5350, followed by 1.5450 respectively.


3. The structure indicates that GBP/CHF remains bearish below the 1.5350 level.


Trading recommendations:


Remain short, at current levels and more at 1.5250, stop at 1.5350, the target is open.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of Silver for August 29, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


1. Silver rally stalled yesterday at the $19.90 level. The metal is seen to be trading at the $19.50 level for now, and it is expected to resume rally higher, taking out the $20.20 level. It is recommended to remain long for now, risk remains below $19.00.


2. Support is seen at $19.00, followed by $18.60 and lower while resistance is seen at $20.20/30, followed by $20.80, $21.70 and higher respectively.


3. The structure indicates that Silver remains constructive for bulls till prices remain above the $19.00 levels.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long, stop below $19.00, target is open.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of Gold for Aug 29, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


1. Now, Gold is pulling back after printing intermediary highs around the $1,296.00 levels yesterday. The metal is expected to continue rallying further up towards $1,305.00 and higher up in the sessions to come by. It is recommended to remain long, risk remains below $1,270.00 levels.


2. Support is seen at $1,270.00, followed by $1,260.00, $1,240.00 and lower while resistance is seen at $1,325.00, followed by $1,340.00 and higher up respectively.


3. The structure indicates that Gold is set to print higher highs and higher lows from here on.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long, stop below $1,270.00, target is open.


Good luck!


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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for August 29, 2014

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Overview


As shown in the H4 chart, the pair has failed more than once to break the support level of 172.00 and is still trading above it since yesterday. The pair bounced from the support area again and started to take a slightly upward move approaching the resistance level of 172.60 which is being tested now. Currently, it is prefered to wait till closing above this resistance level before making the decision. In this case, we will get more bullish signals with the first target few pips below the next resistance level of 173.30, then 173.75 as the second target. But closing below the resistance level of 172.60 cancels the bullish move scenario.


Resistance and support levels: R3 (173.75), R2(173.30), R1(172.60), S1 (172.00), S2(171.50), S3(171.00)


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for August 29, 2014

General overview for 29/08/2014 14:50 CET


Not much has changed in this pair since yesterday as the consolidation area is still being maintained. Only a clear breakout above the level of 1.0868 would change the intraday bias to the bullish side. Please, notice the increasing bullish divergence is building on the momentum oscillator. At the moment, there is no clear direction bias, so patience is needed now.


Support/Resistance:


1.0828 - Intraday Support


1.0868 - Intraday Resistance | Key Level |


1.0858 - 1.0873 - Supply Zone


1.0911 - WS1


1.0974 - Weekly Pivot


Trading recommendations:


Day traders should consider opening buy orders only when the level of 1.0868 is clearly broken with SL below the level of 1.0827. Otherwise, patience is required for a clear trading pattern to emerge.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for August 29, 2014

General overview for 29/-8/2014 14:30 CET


Unfortunately, there is something else going on than a simple downward impulsive wave development. It looks like the corrective cycle is going to be more complex and time-consuming. Due to invalidation of several important rules, the current count has been updated and the bearish impulsive count has been cancelled. According to the new labeling, the are chances that after the downside failure the higher prices will be seen as the corrective cycle is not completed. The current labeling is WXY brown complex triple three structure in red wave 2 and there is one more wave to the upside missing to complete the correction.


Support/Resistance:


136.87 - Intraday Support


137.28 - Intraday Resistance


137.42 - Weekly Pivot


137.98 - Technical Resistance


Trading recommendations:


The short orders opened at the beginning of this week should be closed and traders should refrain from trading until a clear pattern emerges.


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EUR/NZD analysis for August 29, 2014

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Overview:


Since our last analysis, EUR/NZD has been trading downwards. As we expected, the price has tested the level of 1.5680 (Fibonacci retracement 38.2%) in an ultra high volume (selling climax), which is a sign that buying looks very risky. It is still unsafe to buy anything, so watch for potential selling opportunities after retracement. If the price breaks the level of 1.5710 in a higher volume, we may see potential testing the level of 1.5595. According to the 30-minutes time frame, we can observe ultra high volume demand (buying climax), which is a sign that buying looks risky. Watch for potential selling opportunities.


Daily Fibonacci pivot levels :


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.5758


R2: 1.5772


R3: 1.5795


Support levels:


S1: 1.5712


S2: 1.5698


S3: 1.5675


Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying the EUR/NZD pair and watch for selling opportunities after retracement.


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Gold analysis for August 29, 2014

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Overview:


Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1,283.25 in a volume above average. Our Fibonacci expansion 61.8% at the price of 1,284.00 is broken. So, we may see potential testing the level of 1,260.00 (Fibonacci expansion 100%). I have placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential resistance levels and I got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1,292.00 and Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1,303.00. According to the 1H time frame, we can observe absorption volume in the background, which is a sign that buying looks risky. Watch for potentaial selling opportunities.


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1,295.91


R2: 1,299.35


R3:1,304.93


Support levels:


S1: 1,284.75


S2: 1,281.31


S3: 1,275.73


Trading recommendations: Buying Gold looks risky since the price has broken the support level.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 29, 2014

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Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 1.5767


R2: 1.5741


R1: 1.5724


Current spot: 1.5716


S1: 1.5685


S2: 1.5663


S3: 1.5630


Technical summary:


The break below 1.5692 tells us, that a more complex correction is unfolding. This correction could move as low as 1.5398, but we find it more likely, that the maximum for this correction is near 1.5589. The downside pressure will stay as long as resistance at 1.5767 protects the upside, but we need a break above the resistance line at 1.5865 to confirm strong acceleration higher towards 1.6203 and beyond.


Trading recommendation:


Our stop at 1.5690 was hit for a small loss. We will be looking for a new EUR buying opportunity at 1.5595 or upon a break above 1.5767.


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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for August 29, 2014

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Trading recommendations :



  • According to the previous events, the price of GBP/USD is going to move between the levels of 1.6635 and 1.6640.

  • The prices of 1.6635 and 1.6640 are going to form resistance and support respectively. Also, it should be noticed that the price of 1.6538 will form a triple bottom today.

  • So, buy above the level of 1.6538 which represents the triple bottom in H1 chart with the first target at 1.6615. Then, the trend will be able to continue towards the level of 1.6635.

  • Notwithstanding, the stop loss should be set at 1.6513.

  • The level of 1.6635 represents strong resistance on August 29, 2014. Moreover, the same level coincides with the ratio of the 50% Fibonacci retracement levels.

  • As it is known, above the level of 50% Fibonacci always confirms for the bullish market.


Notes :



  • Resistance sets at 1.6694 and minor resistance sets at 1.6635.

  • We expect a range of 68 pips today.

  • Volatility: 110.73


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 29, 2014

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Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 137.29


R2: 137.05


R1: 136.81


Current spot: 136.61


S1: 136.36


S2: 136.06


S3: 135.73


Technical summary:


We have finally seen the expected break below short-term important support at 136.81, which ideally will protect the upside now; but only a break above resistance at 137.29 will cause concern. We are still looking for a decline to 135.73 on the way lower to the equality target at 134.34, from where a new rally is expected. We also have to say, that the decline from 138.00 is not as pretty as we could have wished for, but no unexpected events have occurred to cause concern.


Trading recommendation:


We are short in EUR from 137.75 and will move our stop lower to 137.35. If you are not short in EUR yet, the sell near 136.81 with stop placed at 137.35.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for August 29, 2014

Overview :



  • The EUR/USD pair rebounded at the level of 1.3220. It showed signs of strength following the level of 1.3220. As expected, the minor support was broken and turned to minor resistance at the same key level (1.3220). Another thought, the price set below the resistance four days ago. Consequently, the pair has already formed a big gap around the spot of 1.3220 and 1.3240. Furthermore, the price has still been moving between 1.3220 and 1.3150. Therefore, the EUR/USD pair started showing the signs of a bearish market. So, the market indicates the bearish opportunity at the level of 1.3220/.3240 with the first target of 1.3170, and continues towards the level of 1.3115 in order to try testing the weekly support 2. Notwithstanding, the stop loss should always be taken into account. Thus, it will be wise to set your stop loss at the 1.3285 price. Also, it should be noted that the price of 1.3285 represents the weekly pivot point.


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Intraday technical levels:


Date and Time:29/08/2014 11:27


Pair: EUR/USD



  • R3: 1.3274

  • R2: 1.3247

  • R1: 1.3215

  • PP: 1.3188

  • S1: 1.3156

  • S2: 1.3129

  • S3: 1.3097


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#USDX Technical analysis for August 29, 2014

The Dollar index has made a short-term upward reversal yesterday but still not a new high. This double top near the 61.8% retracement is a bearish sign and we remain bearish preferring short position specially if support at 82.40 is broken.


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Trading inside the ichimoku cloud of the 4-hour chart, the Dollar index has made a lower high at the 61.8% retracement of the decline from 82.74. I believe selling pressures will push the index lower and break support of 82.40. Breaking this support will be another sign of weakness for the Dollar. I remain bearish and expect more downside pressures to push the index towards 82 at least.


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The Dollar index is making a pull back after touching the upper channel boundaries. On the daily level, the trend remains bullish but I believe there are increased chances of a trend reversal from the current levels. Bulls should keep their stops tight and near 82.40. Breaking below that level will be a sell signal that could push the index towards 82 at least or even 81.85. In conclusion, I prefer closing long positions or even taking short positions with 82.54 as stop rather than opening new long positions.


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Gold Wave analysis for August 29, 2014

Gold price made another upward move yesterday towards the $1,295 resistance and got rejected. Today, there is a lot of selling pressures pushing price towards critical support of $1,280. Gold should bounce higher from the current levels above $1,295 soon, otherwise sellers will come back stronger.


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In the 4 hour chart as shown above, Gold price has broken the short-term upward sloping red trend line. However, price is still inside the neutral area of the Ichimoku cloud. Gold price has started making higher highs and higher lows from $1,271. Breaking below the horizontal support at $1,280 will cancel this short-term bullish signal. Besides, price will have broken below Ichimoku cloud area.


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In the daily chart, Gold price was rejected at the lower end of the Ichimoku cloud at $1,295. Price is below the cloud which is a bearish sign. However, as I have pointed out in previous posts, important long-term support is found at $1,270 where we saw a first initial bounce. Gold bulls will need to push price back inside the Ichimoku cloud. The longer price keeps below the cloud, the more chances there are of a sharp sell off towards $1,200.


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Forecast of USD/CAD for August 29, 2014

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The pair made a broadening top, unable to breach the 1.1 level on the upside. Last two weeks, it managed to close above 20Wsma. This week, the pair hit the 20Wsma. On the down side, it has support at 1.07915. Closing below this, the short-term noise will be created for a downside target at the 1.0708 and 1.0620 levels. The weekly RSI is indicating a sell on the rise strategy. On a daily basis, the pair declined and close below 20Dsma and 200Dsma. On the down side, it has support at 1.08; a daily close below 1.08; the near-term target may be found around the 1.0765 and 1.07 levels.


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Intraday trading recommendations on EUR/JPY for August 29, 2014

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The pair has been making lower lows and lower highs for 5 days. Today in Asia's session, the pair was opened with a lower low. The pair closed far below the 20Dsma. In the weekly chart, the pair was rejected thrice from the broken support trend line.


Weekly basis. Until the pair closes below the 137.20 level, selling on the rise will mint money. - Active.


Monthly basis. Until the pair closes below the 138.70 level, selling on the rise will mint money. - Active.


On the down side, it has a parallel support at the 137 level. Below this, 136.75-136.60 will be used as a weekly support level.


Until the pair closes below the 138.70, on the down side 134.50-134 will act as an open target in the near term.


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On intraday basis, the prices are closed below and trading below 12ema, negative for hourly and intraday trading. The pair has been consolidating for the last 15 hours between 136.79-136.64. The prices are facing strong resistance at 21hrsma in the H1 chart. Until the pair trades below 137.30, selling on every upmove will mint money.


Resistance is at 136.90, 137.21, and 137.30.


The trading range is between 136.36-138.02. We will see panic below 136.36 and a huge spike above 138.02.


Fresh sell only below 136.36.


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Intraday trading recommendations and review of Gold for August 29, 2014

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The metal was on the way up to $1,296 and closed at the $1,289.20 level. The metal breached the 100Dsma and 20Dsma in intraday basis, but failed to close above those levels. Today, the metal opened above the previous close, which resulted in strong opening with open lower strategy. It is facing strong resistance at $1,295.50 on closing basis. For the last 3 days, we have been recommending to buy.


Our scenario was about a daily close above $1,285 and that the near-term sharp run would take place. - Done


If it closes above $1,285, it can fly up to $1,295, $1,300 and $1,306 in the near term. So, $1,295 has been hit.


For an hourly trading view, the metal pries are closed above key hourly moving averages 35DEMA and 12ema. The metal has support at $1287.50, $1,285, $1,284, and $1,282.


The most probable scenario is the following. A weekly close is expected above $1,292. Strong move is likely to happen soon.


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Intraday trading recommendations for GBP/JPY for August 29, 2014

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The pair once again held the 20DSma in yesterday's session and closed above it. It was rejected thrice at a 2-month descending trend line. For 2 days, it's been rejected at 100DSma on a closing basis. As of now, it made a low at 172.06 -171.89 on a closing basis. The pair has strong resistance at the level of 173 (50DSma). In the short term, until the pair closes below 173, it's better to sell. On the down side, it has support at 171.90. So a daily close below it would result in selling up to 171.63 and 171 in the near term.


Support 171.90 171.58 171


Resistance 172.40 172.70 173


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On an intraday basis, the price hit the 12ema and 35DEMA. The pair has support at 171.63. Until the price trades below the descending trend line, sell on every up move. The pair would face huge selling pressure below 171.60 towards 171.35, 170.90 and 170.75 levels.


Sellers will mint the money


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for August 29, 2014

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When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as German Retail Sales m/m, Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate, Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate, CPI Flash Estimate y/y, Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y, Unemployment Rate as well as Italian Prelim CPI m/m.The US will release its Core PCE Price Index m/m, Personal Spending m/m, Personal Income m/m, Chicago PMI, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, and Revised UoM Inflation Expectations. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move low to medium volatility during this day.


Today’s technical levels:


Breakout BUY Level: 1.3249.

Strong Resistance:1.3241.

Original Resistance: 1.3228.

Inner Sell Area: 1.3215.

Target Inner Area: 1.3184.

Inner Buy Area: 1.3153.

Original Support: 1.3140.

Strong Support: 1.3127.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.3119.


Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for August 29, 2014

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In Asia, Japan will release its Household Spending y/y, Tokyo Core CPI y/y, National Core CPI y/y, Unemployment Rate, Prelim Industrial Production m/m, Retail Sales y/y, and Housing Starts y/y. Meanwhile, the US will unveil its Core PCE Price Index m/m, Personal Spending m/m, Personal Income m/m, Chicago PMI, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, and Revised UoM Inflation Expectations. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during the day.


Today’s technical levels:


Resistance. 3: 104.24.

Resistance. 2: 104.04.

Resistance. 1: 103.83.

Support. 1: 103.59.

Support. 2: 103.29.

Support. 3: 103.18.



Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for August 29, 2014

EUR/USD: This is still a bearish trading instrument in spite of the visible struggle between the bulls and the bears. Any rallies here simply proffer opportunities to open short trades. The market is forming a base and there would soon be a breakout; either in favor of the bulls or the bears. However, a breakout in favor of the bears could be expected.


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USD/CHF: This currency trading instrument is still quite strong. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market and the price could go further upwards to test the resistance level at 0.9200.


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GBP/USD: The Cable is still considered weak, although the price has failed to go downwards significantly this week. The only condition that would show that the bearish outlook is over is a situation in which the EMA 11 crosses the EMA 56 to the upside, and the RSI period 14 crosses the level 50 to the upside.


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USD/JPY: This pair is becoming somehow weak in the context of an uptrend. The RSI period 14 has already given a ‘sell’ signal, but it would be wise to wait for the price to cross the EMA 56 to the downside before one takes a bearish position.


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EUR/JPY: In spite of the volatility in the market, the EUR/JPY is bearish. The market may go further downwards, reaching the demand zone at 136.00. This would be true especially in the face of more stamina in the Yen.


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Daily analysis of USDX for August 29, 2014

Daily chart: The USDX is trying to carry out a pullback on the resistance level of 82.51, due to that the USDX is overbought in this chart. So this instrument could begin to perform corrective movements. If the USDX manages to make a breakout at the support level of 81.50, it's expected to fall to the 200-day moving average. The MACD indicator stays in positive territory.


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H4 chart: The USDX has formed a fractal near to the 82.60 level, so the USDX could fall up to the support offered by the bullish trend line near to the level of 82.00. The USDX stays above the 200-day moving average and the MACD indicator moving average in positive territory.


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H1 chart: The USDX is trying to again form a bullish pattern below the resistance level of 82.50. If the USDX manages to make a breakout at that level, the next objective would be the level of 82.67, thereby strengthening the intraday trend bullish. The MACD indicator is in neutral territory.


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Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 82.50, take profit is at 82.67, and stop loss is at 82.34.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for August 29, 2014

Daily chart: GBP/USD continues trying to climb to the 200-day moving average, so this pair could climb to that level during the session today, but we should remember that GBP/USD is forming a higher low pattern. If this pair manages to make a breakout at the resistance level of 1.6668, it's expected to rise to the level of 1.6766. The MACD indicator is in oversold zone.


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H4 chart: This pair continues moving in the range below the resistance level of 1.6583, although the bearish trend remains strong. If GBP/USD manages to make a breakout at the 1.6644 level, the next target would be the 1.6693 level. The MACD indicator stays in positive territory.


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H1 chart: GBP/USD has again been consolidated above the support level of 1.6578, and this pair has made a pullback at the 200-day moving average. If this pair consolidates again below that support level, it would be expected to fall to the level of 1.6544. The MACD indicator into positive territory.


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Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.6544, take profit is at 1.6507, and stop loss is at 1.6581.


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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on EUR/USD for August 28, 2014

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The price zone of 1.3800-1.3880 (dotted on the chart) provided considerable SUPPLY for the EUR/USD pair. This price zone managed to pause the bullish momentum leading to obvious breakdown of the depicted bullish trend line.


Bearish pressure which originated off 1.3650 has applied enough pressure at the price level of 1.3560 (corresponding to the previous prominent bottom).


Since then, the pair has been downtrending within the depicted bearish channel until the price level of 1.3330 where a narrow range congestion zone was established.


Shortly after, bearish breakout was expressed. Quick decline towards the price levels around 1.3150 took place during weekend.


On Friday, the pair achieved WEEKLY closure at 1.3240, then the pair opened this week on a bearish gap (around the price level of 1.3200).


Further price action should be considered knowing that the pair is currently testing the lower limit of the channel. High probability of reversal exists.


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Bearish breakdown of the price level of 1.3430 allowed the pair to establish a consolidation zone down to 1.3330. Since then, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped inside this price range.


The short-term bearish trend remains intact as long as the bears keep defending the price zone of 1.3420-1.3450.


In case the bears keep applying significant bearish pressure, the EUR/USD pair has Intraday DEMAND zone located between 1.3200 - 1.3150 respectively (Fibonacci Expansion Levels).


The pair has been trading between these levels since Monday. However, daily closure should be considered to determine if the current breakdown will persist or a corrective move towards 1.3300 will take place.


Bullish fixation above 1.3285 is essential to acquire a momentum strong enough to initiate a bullish corrective move towards 1.3340 and 1.3410 as well.


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