Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 30, 2018

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USD/JPY is expected to trade with the pair keeps charging higher while intraday bullishness is maintained by well-directed 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index has climbed into the 60s without showing signs of a bearish reversal. Meanwhile, the level of 106.00 is holding as the key support. On the upside the pair should target 106.70 and in extension, 107.00.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot point indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, stop loss at 106.00, take profit at 106.70

Resistance levels: 106.70, 107.00, and 107.30

Support levels: 105.70, 105.30, and 105.00.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for March 30, 2018

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USD/CHF is expected to trade with a bearish outlook. The pair remains under pressure below the nearest resistance at 0.9465, which is expected to limit any upside room. The relative strength index is mixed to bearish, and also lacks upward momentum. To sum up, as long as 0.9590 is not surpassed, likely decline to 0.9505 and 0.9475 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot point indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, stop loss at 0.9590, take profit at 0.9505.

Resistance levels: 0.9610, 0.9635, and 0.9665

Support levels: 0.9505, 0.9475, and 0.9420.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for for March 30, 2018

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In November 2017, evident signs of bullish recovery was expressed around the depicted low (0.6780). An inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed around these price levels.

The price zone of 0.7140-0.7250 (prominent Supply-Zone) failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, a bullish breakout above 0.7250 was expressed on January 11.

That's why, a quick bullish movement was expected towards the depicted supply zone (0.7320-0.7390) where evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry were expected.

On February 2, a bearish engulfing daily candlestick was expressed off the price level of 0.7390.

Moreover, a double-top reversal pattern followed by another lower High were expressed around the price zone (0.7320-0.7390) where a valid SELL entry was offered as expected.

Bearish breakdown of 0.7300 (neckline) is needed to confirm the depicted reversal pattern. Bearish projection target would be located around 0.7050 and 0.7000.

Otherwise, the NZD/USD pair remains trapped between the price levels of 0.7200 and 0.7350.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for March 30, 2018

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100-1.2200 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450 and recently above 1.2075.

Another bullish breakout above 1.2075 was expressed on the chart. This hinders the bearish momentum allowing bullish advancement to occur towards 1.2750 provided that the bullish breakout above the price level of 1.2075 remains defended by the bulls.

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Daily Outlook

The EUR/USD pair remains trapped between the price levels of 1.2500 and 1.2200 until breakout occurs in either directions.

Daily persistence above 1.2470-1.2500 was needed to confirm a recent bullish flag continuation pattern with projected targets around the price level of 1.2750.

However, significant signs of bearish reversal were manifested around the price levels of 1.2400 (backside of the depicted broken uptrend). This was manifested in the bearish engulfing daily candlestick of March 8.

Hence, the EUR/USD pair remains bearish below the price levels of 1.2400 unless obvious daily bullish support is offered around the price level of 1.2300.

On the other hand, the depicted double-top reversal pattern needs bearish breakdown of the level of 1.2200 to be achieved on a daily basis. Projection target would be located around 1.2070-1.1990.

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Daily analysis of EUR/JPY for March 30, 2018

EUR/JPY

The situation on this cross pair remains unchanged. It can be rightly said that the price is now ranging, which would eventually bring about a neutral bias in the market. The sideways movement is expected to continue for some time, but it would eventually end as volatility arises in the market.

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The formation of the EMAs 11 and 56, and the RSI period 14 indicates some neutrality in the market. A rise from here would make the EMA 11 to stay above the EMA 56, and a fall from here may force the EMA 11 to go below the EMA 56.

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Daily analysis of USD/JPY for March 30, 2018

USD/JPY

There has been a shallow pullback in the market, following the recent bullish effort on the USD/JPY. However, the bullish journey will soon resume. Which means the supply levels at 106.50 and 107.00 would be reached again, when volatility arises in the market, which would most likely favor bulls.

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The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56, and the RSI period 14 is above the level 50, but that formation is being threatened by the current bearish correction in the market. There remains. A Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart.

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Daily analysis of USD/CHF for March 30, 2018

USD/CHF

There is a shallow pullback in the context of a short-term uptrend. The price went briefly above the resistance level at 0.9550 and then fell below it. Much movement is not anticipated today, but price would eventually go upwards again, to stay above the resistance level at 0.9550. This is what is anticipated for the next few trading days.

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There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart, but the Williams' % Range period 20 is sloping downwards, depicting the ongoing shallow correction in the market. The EMA 11 will cross the EMA 56 to the downside only if the current bearish correction holds out.

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Global macro overview for 30/03/2018

An afternoon pack of Thursday's US data did not bring many surprises, but the weekly unemployment fell to 215,000 applications, which is close to the new record low. Data on income and expenses in February were in line with estimates (0.4% m / m and 0.2% m / m), PCE Core increased 0.2% m / m and 1.8%y / y as expected, but the Chicago PMI activity index disappointed, dropping to 57.4 points. (the lowest level since the year), and data on the consumer mood of the University of Michigan fell slightly below the 102 points indicated by analysts. (in March the result indicated 101.4 points).

In the Eurozone, estimated data on CPI inflation in Germany for March were slightly below the anticipated level of 0.5% m/m and 1.7 percent y/y. The actual reading was 0.4% m/m and 1.6 % y/y. In turn, today's estimates from France for March fell slightly above forecasts (CPI reading amounted to 1.5% y/y and HICP 1.7% y/y).

However, the last trading day in March is marked by a slight weakening of the US Dollar - the slowdown observed from Tuesday was visible yesterday afternoon. The cause for this drop was slightly weaker macro readings from the USA. Today the calendar is empty, the nearest important publication from the US is Monday's ISM estimates for the industry. In turn, in the global calendar tomorrow, the market participants will know the estimates of the Chinese PMI indexes for March.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The bulls failed to break out above the key technical resistance at the level of 90.59 and after making a lower low at the level of 90.18 the price is not dropping slowly towards the nearest technical support at the level of 89.63. The overbought market conditions support the short-term negative bias for this market.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for March 30, 2018

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Overview:

The NZD/USD pair continued moving upwards from the level of 0.7209. The pair rose from the level of 0.7209 to the top around 0.7245. Today, the first support level is seen at 0.7209 followed by 0.7187, while daily resistance is seen at 0.7270. According to the previous events, the NZD/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 0.7227 and 0.7302; for that we expect a range of 75 pips in coming hours. This would suggest a bullish market because the RSI indicator is still in a positive area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level of 0.7270, we should see the pair climbing towards the double top (0.7302) to test it. On the contrary, if a breakout takes place at the support level of 0.7209, then this scenario may become invalidated. Remember to place a stop loss; it should be set below the second support of 0.7180.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for March 30, 2018

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Overview:

Pivot: 0.9559.

The USD/CHF pair will continue to rise from the level of 0.9525. The support is found at the level of 0.9525, which represents the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.

The price is likely to form a double bottom. Today, the major support is seen at 0.9525, while the immediate resistance is found at 0.9583. Accordingly, the USD/CHF pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of a high at 0.9583.

So, buy above the level of 0.9583 with the first target at 0.9605 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and move further to 0.9625. Also, the level of 0.9625 is a good place to take profit because it will form a new double top. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in an uptrend; for that we expect the USD/CHF pair to climb from 0.9525 to 0.9625 today.

On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the USD/CHF pair breaks through the support level of 0.9525, a further decline to 0.9450 can occur, which would indicate a bearish market.

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Global macro overview for 30/03/2018

In a wider term, at the end of the quarter, market sentiments remain very volatile and changeable. Strong growth in the stock market was sufficient without the lack of negative information regarding the escalation of restrictions in global trade. However, it is difficult to consider it in the category of reason sufficient for a more lasting rebound and hence the next sharp turns of sentiment. The analysts expect that nervousness will continue to generate volatility, strongly undermine particularly extremely speculative positions. This will largely affect the world of emerging markets, which after a mild overtone of the Fed's March meeting caught its breath, but should not permanently attract capital in the current market environment. In this context, the market participants should expect a resumption of depreciation pressure on the emerging markets currencies (PLN, CZK, HUF), but above all a deep depreciation of the overvalued South African Rand (ZAR).

Let's now take a look at the USD/ZAR technical picture at the daily time frame. Recently this market felt out of the descending channel and now is trading in a horizontal zone between the levels of 11.50 - 12.20. The momentum is hovering around its fifty level as the bulls are trying to test the nearest technical resistance at the level of 12.0000. Only a clear and sustained breakout above the level of 12.20 would change the curent bias from bearish to bullish with a projected target at the level of 13.15.

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Analysis of GBP/USD for March 30, 2018

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Recently, gold has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $1,321.26. I found strong rejection of the upper diagonal of the channel in the background, which caused the price to go lower. I still don't see any signs of strength and my advice is to watch for selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of $1,307.80.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,340.06

R2: $1,355.35

R3: $1,383.61

Support levels:

S1: $1,316.48

S2: $1,308.20

S3: $1,292.90

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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USD/JPY analysis for March 30, 2018

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Recently, the USD/JPY has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price rejected from the 2.1 standarad deviations and upper band, which is a sign that buying got exhausted. I also found a hidden bearish divergence on the %b oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 105.90 and at the price of 104.60.

Resistance levels:

R1: 106.80

R2: 107.20

R3: 107.48

Support levels:

S1: 106.15

S2: 105.87

S3: 105.48

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Bitcoin analysis for March 30, 2018

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Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $7.387 and reached my yesterday's target. On March 28, the popular online electronics merchant Newegg announced it's now allowing residents from Canada to pay for goods using cryptocurrencies. Through its partnership with the payment processing firm Bitpay, the company feels its the right time to offer Canadian customers the ability to pay for items with the digital currencies BCH and BTC. The technical picture looks bearish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 4H time - frame, I found that price broke the Fibonacci expansion 161.8% at the level of $7.454, which is a sign that sellers are still in control. I also found that there is a strong support near the $7.246 and my advice is to watch for selling opportunities with the downward target at $7.246.

Support/Resistance

$7.593 – Intraday resistance

$7.387– Intraday support

$7.246 – Objective target

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Bitcoin analysis for 30/03/2018

The German National Tourism Council (GNTB) now accepts Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as a form of payment for its services. "As part of our strategy for digitization, we constantly look at the latest technologies and trends and check whether they can be implemented in our company."- said Petra Hedorfer, general director of GNTB. The marketing organization stated that it is interested in testing basic Blockchain cryptographic technology for its financial operations and can use it for international payments. As a global company, GNTB wants to set an example as a leader in the tourism industry, said Hedorfer.

The National Tourism Council, GNTB with its headquarters in Frankfurt, is subject to the Federal Ministry of Economy and Energy, from which it also receives funding. GNTB aims to develop strategies and products that positively represent Germany as an attractive destination. To this end, the organization serves 32 agencies abroad.

At the end of February 2018, the Federal Ministry of Finance recognized the virtual currency as an acceptable payment offer in accordance with the precedent set by the European Court of Justice in 2015. Germany intends to cooperate with the EU and other countries in the regulation of trading platforms and initial coin offers (ICO ). The first detailed regulations for ICO operators in Germany were passed at the end of February by the Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin), which has power over the cryptographic space due to the current lack of specific provisions.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The impulsive upward scenario has been invalidated due to wave (2) entering the territory of the wave (1). Now the overall count has been updated as well, but the main upwards scenario has not been changed yet, it is still valid unless the level of $5,829 will be broken.

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Trading plan for 30/03/2018

On the occasion of Good Friday, most of the world's major stock exchanges are closed today. The trade will run out in Australia, Germany, France, Poland, Hungary, the United Kingdom, the USA and Hong Kong. This means that most likely a very calm day awaits us and we should not expect large movements.

On Friday 30th of March, the event calendar is very light in important data releases, but late at night, there are some data from China that might grab the attention of global investors - Manufacturing PMI and Non-Manufacturing PMI.

EUR/USD analysis for 30/03/2018:

In the new quarter, EUR/USD will come in the middle of the dominant fluctuation zone of 1.2160-1.2560. Before this happens, however, the market will focus its attention on preliminary inflation readings from the German economy for March. A significant rebound in consumer inflation is expected, but if it does not materialize, it should generate a stronger move than a potential positive surprise. Taking into account the successive expulsion of the EUR/USD increases before 1.2550, the lower limit of the wide range of fluctuations seems to be more probable.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market movements are limited today, but due to the oversold conditions, the market participants are trying to break out above the golden trend line around the level of 1.2334. Due to the limited volatility, this move up might fail and the market will return to the price range between the levels of 1.2334 - 1.2289. The next important technical support is seen at the level of 1.2257.

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