Technical analysis of USD/JPY for April 17, 2018

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USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bearish outlook. The pair is trading within a bearish channel drawn from last Friday (April 13). It is currently testing the key level of 107.00 on the downside, as the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are badly oriented. The relative strength index remains subdued in the 30s, suggesting a lack of upward momentum for the pair. Below 107.40, the next support (downside target) at 106.80 would come into sight.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot point indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, stop loss at 107.40, take profit at 106.80.

Resistance levels: 107.60, 107.80, and 108.20

Support levels: 106.80, 106.60, and 106.20.

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Daily analysis of Gold for April 17, 2018

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Overview

Gold price is trading with a slight bearish bias, affected by stochastic negativity, but the EMA50 is still providing positive support for the price as long as the price is above 1,335.40. So, our bullish trend expectations will remain active, waiting for testing 1,365.97 as an initial station. Let me remind you that breaching this level will extend gold gains to reach 1,400.00 as an initial main station. The expected trading range for today is between 1,335.00 support and 1,370.00 resistance.

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Daily analysis of Silver for April 17, 2018

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Overview

Silver price is still trading sideways, confined between 16.15 support and 16.80 resistance. Thus, no change is expected in our sideways outlook on the intraday basis until the price manages to breach one of the mentioned levels, followed by detecting the next destination clearly. The details of the expected targets after the breach are explained in our previous reports. The expected trading range for today is between 16.45 support and 16.90 resistance.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for April 17, 2018

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USD/CHF is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. The pair edged higher and broke above its key resistance at 0.9575, which becomes the key support now. The rising 50-period moving average plays a support role and maintain the upside bias. The relative strength index is bullish, calling for a further upside. Hence, above 0.9575, look for a new challenge with targets at 0.9670 and 0.9695 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot point indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, stop loss at 0.9575, take profit at 0.9670.

Resistance levels: 0.9670, 0.9695, and 0.9740

Support levels: 0.9550, 0.9525, and 0.9500.

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for April 17, 2018

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade with a bearish outlook. The pair is trading below its declining 20-period and 50-peirod moving averages, which play resistance role and maintain the downside bias. The relative strength index is below its neutrality level at 50 and lacks upward momentum. To conclude, as long as 153.85 holds on the upside, look for a new test with targets at 153 and 152.60 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines show the support levels, while the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 154.25, 154.75, and 155.35

Support levels: 153.00, 152.60, and 152.00.

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Fundamental Analysis of GBP/USD for April 17, 2018

GBPUSD has been quite indecisive today after breaking above 1.43 price area with an impulsive bullish momentum recently. The effect of certain bearish intervention in the non-volatile bullish trend is the cause of mixed economic reports published today. GBP has been the dominant currency in the pair since USD started its struggle due to the downbeat employment reports published recently. The recent rate hike without proper inflation in the economy was a big drawback as well. Today, the UK Average Cash Earning Index report was published unchanged at 2.8% which was expected to increase to 3.0%. Besides, Claimant Count Change showed a better than expected reading, decreasing from 15.1k to 11.6k which was expected to be at 13.3k and Unemployment Rate decreased to 4.2% which was expected to be unchanged at 4.3%. The mixed economic reports did not quite help GBP to sustain its bullish momentum in the market whereas USD took the chance to recover in the process. On the USD side, today Building Permits report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 1.33M from the previous figure of 1.30M, Housing Starts is also expected to increase to 1.27M from the previous figure of 1.24M, Capacity Utilization Rate is expected to have a slight decrease to 77.9% from the previous value of 78.1% and Industrial Production report is expected to decrease to 0.3% from the previous value of 1.1%. Moreover, today FOMC Members Williams and Quarles are going to speak about the interest rate and monetary policy. Their remarks are expected to be neutral in nature. As for the current scenario, if the US economic reports are better than expected or mixed, further bearish pressure is expected in this pair in the short term before GBP takes charge to continue its bullish trend in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently quite indecisive and has already showed good bullish rejection since the start of the day. The struggle between the sustainability of the gains is still quite indecisive but bears are expected to push the price towards 1.4250-1.4300 before price proceeds higher with a target towards 1.45 in the future. As the price remains above 1.40 with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for April 17, 2018

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NZD/USD is expected to trade with a bearish outlook. The pair is under pressure below the key resistance at 0.8650, which should limit the upside potential. Both declining 20-period and 50-period moving averages should push the prices lower. The relative strength index lacks upward momentum. To sum up, below 0.7370, look for a further decline with targets at 0.7315 and 0.7300 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines show the support levels, while the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7385, 0.7395, and 0.7450

Support levels: 0.7315, 0.7300, and 0.7265.

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Global macro overview for 17/04/2018

The dynamics of wages and salaries excluding bonuses in the UK accelerated to 2.8% y/y in February from 2.6% in January. The increase in total remuneration remained at 2.8%, although it was expected to accelerate to 3.0%. Nevertheless, for the first time since January 2017, the growth rate of the basic wage is higher than the inflation rate. The decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.2% also has a positive effect (the estimated number was 4.3%). Generally, the data is solid and allows BoE to raise interest rates, although from the perspective of today's market may not meet the high expectations of investors.

On the other hand, the ZEW Institute survey among German analysts and economists shows that in April the current assessment of the economy as well as the expectations for the future deteriorated. The current rating index fell to 87.9 from 90.7 at the threshold. 88. The indicator of future expectations fell to -8.2 from 5.1 by consensus of -1.0. The data are in line with the latest Eurozone publications suggesting entering into the period of abandoning a solid expansion pace at the turn of the year.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/GBP technical picture at the H4 time frame. The macro environment is still not supported for the EUR and after reading EUR/GBP continues the slide below the level of 0.8648, erasing the morning gains. The next support is seen at the level of 0.8530, but the bears have entered the oversold market conditions zone, so the slide might be limited. The key technical level to the upside is seen at the level of 0.8808.

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Global macro overview for 17/04/2018

The last 24 hours did not bring the continuation of geopolitical tensions regarding weekend rocket attacks on Syria, so for markets, it meant a green light to return to optimistic trade. In the meantime, the Twitter account of US President Donald Trump did not remain silent. Trump dismissed the news that Russia and China are "playing a course devaluation" at a time when the US is raising interest rates and is "unacceptable". The consternation was not due to concerns about the new distribution of trade/currency wars, but from the fact that the content of the tweet is meaningless. First, since Trump's inauguration in January 2017, the Russian ruble and the Chinese yuan have been gaining against the dollar, so if Moscow and Beijing are involved in artificially lowering the value of their currency, they are doing it wrong. Secondly, what could have caught Trump's attention was the severe weakening of the ruble last week, which, however, would not have happened if the US did not announce fresh sanctions against Russian companies, which triggered the avalanche capital flight from the Russian stock exchange. Thirdly, Trump contradicts his own Department of the Treasury, who in a report published on Friday stated that none of US trading partners is manipulating their rate. Finally, after Thursday, it is completely pointless to accuse that Russia and China are using the fact that the Fed raises interest rates. Presumably, President Trump's advisers have somewhat escaped that monetary tightening is possible thanks to expansive fiscal policy. It is appealing that investors are able to filter out the populism from Trump's twitter message, and yesterday's lack of reaction is a good proof.

Let's now take a look at the SP500 technical picture at the H4 time frame. The bulls have managed to make another higher high at the level of 268.16, but the gap zone between the levels of 268.89 - 270.30 still hasn't been filled yet. Moreover, the overall move upward looks more like a rising wedge pattern, which should terminate soon. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 266.81 and 264.95.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for April 17, 2018

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Overview:

Last week, the USD/CHF pair broke resistance at the level of 0.9549 which is acting as support now. Thus, the pair has already formed minor support at 0.9549. The strong support is seen at the level of 0.9549 because it represents the daily support 1. Equally important, the RSI and the moving average (100) are still calling for an uptrend. Therefore, the market indicates a bullish opportunity at the level of 0.9549 in the H4 chart. Also, if the trend is buoyant, then the currency pair strength will be defined as following: USD is in an uptrend and CHF is in a downtrend. Buy above the minor support of 0.9549 with the first target at 0.9704, and continue towards 0.9749. On the other hand, if the price closes below the minor support, the best location for the stop loss order is seen below 0.9549; hence, the price will fall into the bearish market in order to go further towards the strong support at 0.9417 to test it again. Also, it should be noted that the level of 0.9417 will form a double bottom.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for April 17, 2018

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Overview:

The pivot point is seen at the point of 0.7294.

The NZD/USD pair is still continuing to move upwards from the level of 0.7294 and 0.7436. The level of 0.7294 represents the daily pivot point in the H4 time frame. The pair rose from the level of 0.7294 to a top around 0.7375.

Right now, the price is moving around the level of 0.7375. Also, it should be noted that the resistances levels are lies in 0.7375 and 0.7436, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.7294 (50% Fibonacci retracement).

According to the previous events, the NZD/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 0.7294 and 0.7436; so we expect a range of 142 pips. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level at 0.7375, we should see the pair climbing towards the double top (0.7436) to test it.

Therefore, buy above the level of 0.7300 with the first target at 0.7375 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 0.7436. Also, it might be noted that the level of 0.7436 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top.

On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.7294, a further decline to 0.7151 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.

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Analysis of Gold for April 17, 2018

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Recently, Gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1,341.00. Anyway, according to the M30 time – frame, I found a successful rejection of Fibonacci retracement 50% at the price of $1,349.00, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found a broken channel and rounding top, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $1,333.35 and at the price of $1,322.50.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,350.83

R2: $1,355.85

R3: $1,361.17

Support levels:

S1: $1,340.50

S2: $1,335.17

S3: $1,330.15

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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GBP/USD analysis for April 17, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.4375. Anyway, I found rejection of the upper diagonal of the upward channel, which is a sign that GBP/USD is in potential bearish correction. The short – mid term trend is still bullish and my advice is to buy on dips. Support level is set at the price of 1.4297 (previous swing high). My advice is to wach for potential buying opportunities. The upward target is set at the price of 1.4375.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.4379

R2: 1.4420

R3: 1.4493

Support levels:

S1: 1.4264

S2: 1.4190

S3: 1.4150

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Bitcoin analysis for April 17, 2018

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading sideways at the price of $8.062. Cryptocurrencies are often criticized for failing to replicate some of the basic functions of fiat money. Governments are always ready to warn you that you can't spend, or save, or trade, or make digital coins. This state of mind, however, is slowly but surely changing, as more benefits become apparent. Paying, saving, investing – bitcoin can serve all these purposes, and sometimes that happens with approval from authorities. Technical picture looks bullish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the H4 time - frame, I found breakout of a falling wedge and flat base in the background, which is a sign that buyers are in control. I also found a hidden bullish divergence on the RSI oscillator in the background, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward target is set at the price of $8.875.

Support/Resistance

$8.360 – Intraday resistance

$7.835– Intraday support

$8.875 – Objective target

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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Burning forecast 04/17/2018

Burning forecast 04/17/2018

EURUSD: Attempting to start a trend.

News on the US economy came out strong - retail sales accelerated growth. News on China's economy is also positive.

Political tension has receded into the background.

The main US index S & P500 after a strong correction came in plus for the opening of the year.

EURUSD: At the time of writing this review, the euro is trying to rise to an important level of the daily target of 1.2400 and gain a foothold higher. If this happens, then go up to the zone of strong levels 1.2470 - 1.2550 - and this is a high of the year.

If this is the right trend, then the target of the trend movement is 1.2900 - the minimum target is 1.2680

Buy from 1.2400, stop at 1.2355.

Alternative: we sell from 1.2213, stop at 1.2258, profit at 1.2200.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of USDX for April 17, 2018

The Dollar index is challenging important trend line support. The trend remains bearish as price got rejected at the Ichimoku cloud and at the 90 resistance level. Bulls have not managed to break above resistance and the consequence was for more weakness to push price lower.

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The price is below the Ichimoku cloud. Clear bearish trend. Support is being tested now at 89.30. Resistance is at 89.60 and next and most important at 90. Bulls need to step in now and break above 90 in order to avoid another bearish move towards 88.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of Gold for April 17, 2018

The Gold price tried to break above $1,350 yesterday but so far it has not succeeded. Short-term trend remains bullish as long as the price is above $1,340 but we must also keep in mind the important resistance we have right above at $1,350-65 where we see a big rejection last week.

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Long-term resistance is at $1,360-65 area. Long-term support at $1,300. Short-term resistance is at $1,351 and support at $1,340. The Gold price is mainly moving sideways both in the short and in the medium-term. After the big rejection and reversal from last weeks try to break out of the trading range, I believe we should expect one more leg lower towards at least $1,310.

Cloud support is at $1,333 and as long as we are above this level, the short-term trend is bullish.

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Bitcoin analysis for 17/04/2018

The Russian government reportedly prepared a review of the bill "On digital financial assets", specifying that the exchange of cryptocurrencies for fiat currency for more than 600,000 rubles (or about $9,600) or its foreign counterpart is subject to mandatory exchange regulation.

According to Anatoly Aksakov, head of the Financial Market Committee, this review has not yet been presented to the State Duma. Forklog notes that Russian banks are already monitoring transactions worth more than 600,000 rubles to prevent money laundering and terrorist financing. The latest version of the bill on digital financial assets, submitted to the State Duma on March 20, 2018, defines cryptographic tokens as digital financial assets that can be traded only on authorized cryptocurrency exchanges and defines the details of KYC regulations for initial coin offers (ICO). The version of the law of March 20 would also require verification of user accounts on AML cryptographic exchanges and financing of terrorism (CTF). Stock market operators should be subject to art. 5 of the Federal Law 115-FZ (against AML and CTF), otherwise it will threaten to lose the license - in accordance with the Russian Federal Financial Monitoring Service.

Yuri Pripachkin, president of the Russian Cryptocurrency and Blockchain Association (RACIB), said the latest version of the law, which requires that cryptographic transactions be subject to banking control and Federal Financial Control, may cause Russian investors and cryptocurrency developers to leave the country to work in a more friendly way places. Moreover, the latest bill does not mention taxes on profits from cryptocurrencies. However, due to the fact that it classifies cryptocurrencies as a property - it is not a sanctioned payment system in Russia - the government also wants to tax transactions involving digital assets.

According to Teimuraz Waszakmadze, an associate professor at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, a 13% personal income tax could be imposed on cryptocurrency traders, although the anonymity of transactions may make it difficult to do: "If they do not report that they have bought and sold Bitcoins, no one will know about it, so many people will not voluntarily declare such income".

According to RACIB, "CryptoRuble" - the state cryptocurrency of Russia, will most likely be launched in mid-2019.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The impulsive cycle has completed at the level of $8,355 and now the market is in the internal corrective cycle. So far the weekly pivot at the level of $7,819 is providing enough support for the price, but it is likely the level of $7,442 to be tested soon. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $9,134.The current impulsive scenario is valid as long as the level of $6,402 is not clearly violated.

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Trading plan for 17/04/2018

The currency market drifts to the side. It is very little volatility on the commodity market. In the stock market, the sentiment was undermined by news about the new source of the US trade dispute with China. Together, this information had little impact on FX volatility, although WSJ reports somewhat weakened the risk appetite. USD/JPY goes back under 107, AUD/USD and NZD/USD show the pressure from the sellers.

On Tuesday 17th of April, the event calendar is light in important data releases, but the market participants should keep an eye on Claimant Count Change data from UK and Building Permits data from the US.

EUR/USD analysis for 17/04/2018:

The overnight event was data pack release from China, which, however, did not translate into a revival of trade. GDP in the first quarter in line with expectations increased by 6.8 percent; Retail sales for March were stronger at 10.1% vs 9.7%, and industrial production increased by only 6.0% against a 6.3% forecast. In general, the data show that the growth rate is stable without signs of a negative impact of the trade war with the US.

The US financial media reports that the US administration is preparing a new trade lawsuit against China on unfair restrictions when exchanging high technology services, however, the administration has not yet decided whether the lawsuit will be launched.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture in the H4 time frame. After the 61%, Fibo retracement was broken, the market has made a new local high at the level of 1.2397 and this morning the level is being tested again. Any breakout higher will open the road towards the golden trend line resistance around the level of 1.2435, but the key technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2446. The momentum indicator is bouncing back up towards the north, so the bullish vies is still being supported.

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Trading plan 04/16/2018

Trade plan 04/16/2018

General picture: Markets are expecting growth. A military strike against Syria was inflicted immediately after the markets closed on Friday. It seems not accidental. The Western countries seek to minimize the new fall of the markets and they succeeded. On Monday morning, everyone knows that there is no reason to wait for a new round of tension due to Syria in the coming days.

Situation number 2: "Trump Trade War - China". This crisis is not yet finished, but the latest statements by the parties indicate readiness for negotiations and, probably, everything can be resolved by an agreement. In addition, it is important that discussion must be held before the entry into force after the official publication of the US decision on new tariffs in at least 2 months. Also, US officials said that they will negotiate with China before the introduction of new tariffs.

Third: Current events. The new week lacks important news. The main events will be held at the end of April (ECB meeting on April 26) and the Fed in early May.

Thus, this event is beneficial for large investors to send the markets to new highs.

GBP / USD: We expect growth to continue.

Purchases on decline up to 1.4100.

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* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

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