Technical analysis of USD/JPY for October 12, 2015

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USD/JPY is expected to trade with bullish bias. The US indices jumped higher on Friday led by shares of the Technology Hardware and Equipment, Transportation and Health Care Equipment & Services sectors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 33.74 points, or 0.2%, to 17084.49. The S&P 500 added 1.46, or 0.1%, to 2014.89, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 19.68, or 0.4%, to 4830.47. Nymex crude futures hovered around $50 a barrel, while Gold edged 1% up to $1,156.30 a troy ounce. The yield on 10-year US Treasury notes fell to 2.099%, from 2.108% on Thursday. The US Import price index dropped 0.1% mom in Sept from a revised drop of 1.6% in Aug. (-0.5% estimate). On an annual basis, overall US import prices were 10.7% down. The US dollar tumbled to a three-week low against the euro on Friday as investors continued to bet against the US interest rate hike in coming months. The pair is reversing up after breaking above its 20-period and 50-period intraday MAs. The intraday RSI is around 50 lacking downward momentum. Further upside is therefore expected with the next horizontal resistance and overlap set at 119.85 at first. A break above this level would call for further advance toward Oct 6 high at 120.65 in extension.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 120.65 and the second target at 120.90. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 119.45 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 119.20. The pivot point is at 119.85.

Resistance levels:120.65 120.90 121.45

Support levels: 119.45 119.20 118.75

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for October 12, 2015

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USD/CHF is expected to trade with a bearish bias. The pair remains under pressure below its key resistance at 0.9650 on an intraday basis. The process of lower highs and lows should confirm a negative trend. Furthermore, the intraday RSI has struck against its neutrality area of 50, while the trending indicators such as the 20-period and 50-period MAs are negatively oriented. In these perspectives, further decline seems to be on the cards with targets at 0.9550 and 0.9520.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9550. A breakout of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.9520. The pivot point stands at 0.9650. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9690 and the second target at 0.9730.

Resistance levels: 0.9690 0.9730 0.9765

Support levels: 0.9550 0.9520 0.9475

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for October 12, 2015

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NZD/USD is expected to trade with a bullish bias above 0.6650. The pair stands firmly above its nearest support at 0.6650 posting consolidation. Even though continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out at the current stage, its extent should be limited. As the key moving averages are still heading upward, which suggests that prices may still have potential to go upside. To sum up, as long as 0.6650 is not broken, the intraday outlook remains positive with targets at 0.6775 and 0.6810.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6775 and the second target at 0.6810. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6580 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.6550. The pivot point is at 0.6650.

Resistance levels: 0.6775 0.6810 0.6865 Support levels: 0.6580 0.6550 0.6515 0.6475

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for October 12, 2015

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GBP/JPY is expected to advance further. The pair broke above its previous resistance at 183.85 (which should act as the key support now), and accelerated on the upside. Furthermore, the ascending 20-period and 50-period MAs maintains the upside bias. The intraday RSI is above its neutrality level of 50 and lacks downward momentum. As long as 183.85 holds on the downside, look for further moving upside to 184.85 and even 185.40.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 184.85 and the second target at 185.40. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 183.30 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 182.70. The pivot point is at 183.85.

Resistance levels: 184.85 185.40 186

Support levels: 183.30 183.70 182.70

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Technical analysis of Siver for October 12, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver has tested resistance around the levels of $16.00 today before coming under pressure again. As depicted here, the metal could drop lower in a corrective way towards $15.00 before resuming its recent rally. The metal seems to be underway to form a bearish evening star candlestick pattern on the H4 chart. It is hence recommended to remain flat now and look for an opportunity to buy at lower levels again. Immediate support is seen at $15.40 (interim) followed by $15.00, $14.40, and lower, while resistance is seen at $16.40/50 followed by $17.40/50 and higher.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat now and look for an opportunity to go long at lower levels.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Gold for October 12, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold has pushed through the $1,169.00 levels for now and could be preparing to target the $1,192.00 levels at least before producing a meaningful retracement lower. The yellow metal will remain in control of bulls until prices stay broadly above the $1,110.00 levels. It is hence recommended to remain long and also look to add further positions on dips. Immediate support is seen at the $1,155.00 levels followed by $1,140.00, $1,130.00 and lower, while resistance is seen at the $1,170.00 levels, and higher. Buy on dips for now.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long for now, stop is at $1,100.00, target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for October 12, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY pair is facing resistance above the level of 137.00 trading at the territory around 136.50/60 at the moment. It is quite possible that the pair drops lower towards 135.50 before turning bullish again. It is recommended to remain flat for now and look for an opportunity to buy at lower levels. Immediate support is seen at 134.50 followed by 133.50/25, 132.00, and lower, while resistance is seen at 137.00/30 followed by 138.00/139.00 and higher. Watch for 135.00/50 where support is likely to be found.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat now.

Good luck!

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Global macro overview for 12/10/2015

Global macro overview for 12/10/2015:

The latest OPEC monthly report has just been released and it shows a global oil demand forecast cut by 40kbpd (thousand barrels per day) in 2016. That means the 2016 oil demand is seen at the level of 1.25mbpd. Nevertheless, OPEC forecasts a 130k drop in non-OPEC demand in 2016, mainly due to the lower prices reducing supplies stockpiles in the US and in other parts of the world. The more optimistic news is, the more balanced fundamental outlook for 2016 is.

The technical picture of crude oil shows the market trading below the 200DMA and below the 50% Fibo at the level of 50.25. The next resistance is seen at the level of 50.87 and support is seen at the level of 49.31.

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for October 12, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/CHF pair is trading around 1.4750/60 now, after bouncing back from the level of 1.4650 earlier. Please note that the pair is still holding its Fibonacci support level of 0.786, and only a drop below 1.4600 would nullify the bullish scenario. Also note that prices need to overcame the level of 1.4950 to enter the buy zone and accelerate. It is hence recommended to hold long positions with risk at 1.4600. Immediate support is seen at 1.4600, while resistance is seen through 1.4900/50 and higher.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long, stop is at 1.4600, a target is open.

Good luck!

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Global macro overview for 12/10/2015

Global macro overview for 12/10/2015:

Today there is a bank holiday in the US with very few economic data releases expected, but there are some speeches from the Fed officials scheduled for later today, including Dennis Lockhart's one at 12:10 pm GMT and Lael Brainard's speech at 20:30 pm GMT. Market participants are watching carefully these speeches, despite the fact that the probability of the Fed's rate hike in October is less than 10%. Prospects for the hike to take place in December 2015 is now lest than 40%. If the Fed still has intention to raise the short-term interest rate this year, it should communicate this much better and scheduled speeches of officials offer the perfect opportunity.

The technical picture of DXY US dollar index is showing a broken golden trend-line support and the market, which is trading below 50, 100, and 200 DMA. The next support is seen at the level of 94.05 and resistance is seen at the level of 95.20.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for October 12, 2015

General overview for 12/10/2015 13:15 CET

The wave structure is clearly extended to the downside as the last wave (c) blue looks now completed. Any breakout higher above the intraday resistance at the level of 1.2990 and then above technical resistance at the level of 1.3070 will be considered bullish. Moreover, the bullish divergence between the price and the Awesome Oscillator supports the bullish outlook.

Support/Resistnace:

1.3092 - WR1

1.3070 - Technical Resistance

1.3000 - Weekly Pivot

1.2990 - Intraday Resistnace

1.2900 - Intraday Support

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should consider opening buy orders from the current market levels with SL below the level of 1.2900 and TP at the level of 1.3000.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for October 12, 2015

General overview for 12/10/2015 13:05 CET

The wave structure is developing as anticipated with one more wave to the upside needed to complete the wave (iii) green. Currently, the market is in a corrective cycle as the wave iv blue is in progress. Any violation of the level of 135.70 invalidates the green impulsive count.

Support/Resistnace:

137.46 - Projected Target For Wave (iii) Green

136.95 - Intraday Resistnace

136.33 - Intraday Support

136.11 - Weekly Pivot

135.70 - Invalidation Level

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should consider opening buy orders from the current market levels with SL below the level of 135.70 and TP at the level of 137.46.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for October 12, 2015

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Overview:

  • The EUR/USD pair has rebounded from the minor resistance at the level of 1.1393, and it is now approaching its support in order to test it. Moreover, the price of 1.1305 is representing the weekly pivot point for October 12-16, 2015. So it will probably start an upside movement in this area and recover again. Therefore, it will be a good sign to buy at this spot with the first target of 1.1305 to form the double top and continue moving towards 1.1438 (this level will form the weekly resistance 1). On the other hand, in case the 1.1305 level is brokern, a good place for a stop loss will be below 1.1270.

The weekly technical analysis of EUR/USD pair:

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EUR/NZD : analysis for October 12, 2015

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Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving upwards. The price tested the level of 1.7025. In the daily time frame, we can observe a demand bar in an average volume. I found the 4-day support level at 1.6845 (Fibonacci retracement 38.2%). Selling opportunities are preferable. On the H1 chart, we can observe a potential reversed head and shoulders formation. If the price breaks the level of 1.700, it will confirm our HS formation. Selling opportunities are preferable only if the price breaks our strong support in a high volume. Otherwise, we may see an upward movement. I had placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential mid-term support levels and got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the level of 1.6860 (on the test), Fibonacci retracement 50% at 1.6280, and Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at 1.5740.

Fibonacci Pivot Points :

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6990

R2: 1.7025

R3: 1.7085

Support levels:

S1: 1.6875

S2: 1.6835

S3: 1.6775

Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying and watch for potential selling opportunities if the price brekas the level of 1.6845 in a high volume.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for October 12, 2015

The weekly technical analysis of GBP/USD pair:

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Overview:

  • The first key level will set at 1.5421 and the second key level will set at 1.5279 today. Equally important, GBP/USD pair is still moving between 1.5421 and 1.5279. Additionally, it should be noted that a range about 142 pips is expected within next hours. Moreover, the levels of 1.5421 and 1.5279 are likely to represent weekly resistance 1 and weekly pivot point in the H1 chart. Furthermore, the trend is very clear indicating a sideways market, because it has been moving between these levels for a while. As it is known, sellers are asking for a high price as well as buyers are bidding at a lower price. Therefore, we expect the trend to call for a bearish market at the level of 1.5421 in the same time frame. As a result, sell at the level of 1.5421 with the first target at 1.5325, it might resume to 1.5279 in order to test the weekly pivot point. On the other hand, your stop loss should be placed above 1.5421. Thus, it will be helpfull to set it at the level of 1.5453.
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Gold : analysis for October 12 , 2015

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Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of $1,166.49. An intraday trend is upward. In the daily time frame, I found a trading range between $1,170.00 (resitance) and $1,098.50 (support). In the H1 time frame, we can observe weak supply around the level of $1,163.00. I am waiting for a clear breakout of the trading range in a high volume to confirm further short and mid-term direction. Anyway, intraday buying opportunities are preferable. The level of $1,170.00 is the first strong resistance. We may expect potential downward correction, so watch for potential buying opportunites after correction (buy on the dips). First support level is seen at $1,159.50.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points :

Resistance levels

R1: 1,156.20

R2: 1,156.70

R3: 1,157.45

Support levels:

S1: 1,154.70

S2: 1,154.20

S3: 1,155.45

Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling gold at this stage and watch for potential buying opportunities on the dips. Strong resistance is seen around the level of $1,170.00.

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USDX technical analysis for October 12, 2015

The US dollar index has broken the short-term triangle pattern and USD bulls are on the defensive. A break down should be expected as bears are now in control of a short-term trend.

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Red line - resistance

Green line - support (broken)

The US dollar index found the short-term support at the 78.6% Fibonacci level of 94.60. The price is below the Ichimoku cloud confirming the bearish trend. Bulls need to break above the Ichimoku cloud at 96 in order to regain control of the trend.

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Green line -weekly support

Red line - weekly resistance

The US dollar index is still trapped inside the trading range of the bullish flag. However, the weekly candle has entered the weekly Ichimoku cloud. This changed weekly trend to neutral. Bulls should be very cautious as bears are in control now. Only a strong bounce and breakout above 96 could shift trend to bullish again. I prefer to stay neutral over the longer-term as long as the price is inside this range.

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Gold technical analysis for October 12, 2015

Gold price made a confirmed weekly breakout on Friday holding the support of $1,140 after the back test of the breakout. The trend remains bullish and my short-term target remains at $1,200.

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Red line - trend line resistance

Gold price has broken above the short-term downward sloping red trend line trading above the Ichimoku cloud. Bulls are in control of the trend as the price is moving towards higher highs and higher lows. Important support is found at $1,140 and short-term support is seen at $1,152.

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Black lines - triangle pattern

The weekly candles have broken above the triangle pattern and above the kijun-sen (yellow indicator). This is a bullish sign, which implies that the trend is bullish in the short-term and we are going to test the Ichimoku cloud that we found at $1,200.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for October 12, 2015

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Technical summary:

We are still looking lower towards 1.6781 before the bottom is in place and a new impulsive rally higher should be expected. In the short term, we expect resistance at 1.7048 to protect the upside for a final decline towards 1.6781.

Only an unexpected breakout above resistance at 1.7125 will indicate that the bottom is already in place, and the next impulsive rally to above 1.8020 should be seen soon.

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 1.7020 was hit for a nice profit, and we will now be looking for a EUR-Buying opportunity near 1.6781

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for October, 2015

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Technical summary:

A nice breakout above resistance at 135.71 is expected to continue moving higher towards 141.00. On the way higher, we should expect minor resistance near 137.43 and again at 138.10 as we work our the way higher.

Support is now found at 136.31 and again at 135.71, which will ideally protect the downside for a rally higher to 138.10 and beyond.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 135.10 and will move stop higher to 135.30. If you are not long EUR yet, buy near 136.31 with the same stop at 135.30.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for October 12, 2015

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD pair seems to end a few weeks of high volatility with no clear direction, having gone upwards last week. In order to sustain this new bullish direction, the price needs to continue its upwards journey, reaching the resistance lines at 1.1400 and 1.1450. There are support lines at 1.1250 and 1.1200, which may not be tested as long as the bullish direction holds.

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USD/CHF: It was once noted that the direction of the USD/CHF pair would largely be determined by the direction of the EUR/USD pair. Since the latter has gone upwards, the former has gone downwards. The former (USD/CHF) has started a bearish movement, which would hold out as long as the latter (EUR/USD) is strong.

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GBP/USD: The GBP/USD pare made a nice bullish movement last week, which resulted in a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. This outlook for GBP pairs is bullish this week, and we may see a continuation of the current bullish journey, taking the price towards the distribution territories at 1.5400 and 1.5500.

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USD/JPY: This market remains in an equilibrium phase, not going above the supply level at 121.00 nor going below the demand level of 119.00. There must be a journey above the supply level or below the demand level before it can be said that the equilibrium phase is over (which is something that will happen this week or next week). When a breakout does occur, it would probably be directed northwards, for there is an expectation of bullishness on JPY pairs.

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EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY pair performed a clear bullish movement on October 9, 2015. This has resulted in a bullish bias on the market, which could enable the price to go upwards by at least 200 pips. The supply zone of 137.00 and 138.00 could be tried this week.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for October 12, 2015

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Today, no economic data is expected to be delivered from the European-London and US markets. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1422.

Strong Resistance:1.1415.

Original Resistance: 1.1404.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1393.

Target Inner Area: 1.1366.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1339.

Original Support: 1.1328.

Strong Support: 1.1317.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1310.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for October 12, 2015

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In Asia and the US, no economic data is due to be released today . So, there is a strong probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 120.73.

Resistance. 2: 120.48.

Resistance. 1: 120.25.

Support. 1: 119.96.

Support. 2: 119.72.

Support. 3: 119.50.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Daily analysis of USDX for October 12, 2015

On the daily chart, the USDX is trading above the 200 SMA but the current pullback is expected to extend its fall towards the support zone of 94.36. Over that zone, a strong rebound could happen, which could deliver bulls back again to dominate the overall trend on this index. The MACD indicator is entering the negative territory.

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The USDX is currently doing a consolidation below the resistance zone of 95.03 and we should note that the 200 SMA is still above the current price zone. The support level of 94.61 should be broken in coming hours in order to test the level of 94.15 on a short-term basis. The MACD indicator remains at the positive territory.

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Daily chart's resistance levels: 95.26 / 95.83

Daily chart's support levels: 94.36 / 93.16

H1 chart's resistance levels: 95.03 / 95.38

H1 chart's support levels: 94.61 / 94.15

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the US dollar index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 94.61, take profit is at 94.15, and stop loss is at 95.08.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for October 12, 2015

GBP/USD is pulling back from the highs reached during last week and the daily chart is showing us a structure, which calls for more downside towards the support level of 1.5256. However, bear in mind that the resistance zone of 1.5381.

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On the H1 chart, the pair is looking again for an opportunity to break the resistance level of 1.5342 and now it is expected to do another rally towards the psychological level of 1.5400. A current intraday bias is still bullish and as long as it stays above the 200 SMA (which is slightly bullish), then the GBP/USD pair could reach new monthly highs soon.

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Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5381 / 1.5439

Daily chart's support levels: 1.5325 / 1.5256

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5342 / 1.5400

H1 chart's support levels: 1.5282 / 1.5223

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.5342, take profit is seen at 1.5400, and stop loss is at 1.5285.

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