Analysis of bitcoin for January 11, 2018

Bitcoin has recently bounced off the $13,000 price area as expected and currently it is held by the dynamic level of Tenkan and 20 EMA which acts as a resistance and may push the price much lower in the coming days. Recently bitcoin has been going through a lot of pressure due to diversification of invested funds to altcoins and new rules introduced by regulators every day. In South Korea the Bitcoin exchanges were raided on the basis of tax evasion which affected the market sentiment, making bitcoin lose some ground. Moreover, regulators are trying to shut down exchanges in some countries and China intends to shut down mining of Bitcoin in the country due to excessive use of electricity resources. As of the current scenario, an impulsive bearish candle was formed which engulfed previous bullish price action leading to $13,000 price area. As the price remains below the dynamic level of 20 EMA and $14,500 area, the bearish bias is expected to continue and a daily close below $13,000 can lead to further impulsive bearish pressure with target towards $10,500 price area in the coming days.

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Global macro overview for 11/01/2018

Yesterday afternoon was quite abundant in the statements of the American central bankers. The series of speeches was opened by Neel Kashkari, a representative of the Fed from Minneapolis, resigning from commenting on the aspects related to the strategy of gradually raising interest rates. Kashkari maintains the conviction that FOMC members should lean on improving the stability of the financial system, which will end the era of institutions that are too big to fail forever. The reticence of Neel Kashkari, a representative from Minneapolis, effectively compensated for the statements of Charles Evans and Robert Kaplan. The first one is quite skeptical about the intentions of rapid interest rate hikes in 2018, which should be associated with concerns about the power of price pressure. Evans showed a greater dose of optimism, which expects an acceleration of economic growth to 2.5% among others thanks to the great condition of business partners. According to Kaplan, wage pressure and a clear conquest of capital expenditures (CAPEX) should be expected due to the newly adopted tax reform.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. After making a local low at the level of 1.1914, the price bounced back up and it is currently testing the technical resistance at the level of 1.2034. The stochastic indicator is bouncing from the oversold territory as well, so there is a good chance for a bounce continuation towards the local high at the level of 1.2090.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for January 11, 2018

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Daily Outlook

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout was expressed towards the price level of 1.2100 where the depicted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was expressed.

If the recent bearish breakout persists below 1.1700 (Neckline of the reversal pattern), a quick bearish decline should be expected towards the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 (Initial targets for the depicted H&S pattern).

Bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern extends towards 1.1350. However, to pursue towards the mentioned target level, significant bearish pressure is needed to be applied against the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).

However, In November, recent price action around the price zone of 1.1520-1.1415 indicated evident bullish recovery.

This hindered further bearish decline which allowed the current bullish pullback to occur towards the price level of 1.2000-1.2100 where price action should be watched for a valid SELL entry (Note the bearish engulfing daily candlesticks of the previous few days).

On the other hand, daily persistence above 1.2100 confirms the depicted bullish continuation pattern with projected targets towards 1.2500.

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H4 Outlook

On November 7, a short-term uptrend was initiated around 1.1570 Since then, the EUR/USD pair has been moving higher as depicted on the chart.

Recently, a double-top reversal pattern was established around the price levels of 1.2080. This was followed by bearish breakdown below 23.6% Fibonacci level (1.1990).

As long as the EUR/USD pair is trading below 1.1990-1.2020, More bearish decline should be expected towards the price zone of 1.1890-1.1850 (Demand-Zone) where the uptrend line comes to meet the depicted Fibonacci levels.

The price zone (1.1990-1.2020) remains an intraday supply zone to be watched for short-term SELL entries.

On the other hand, price action should be watched around the depicted demand zone (1.1890-1.1850) for significant bullish rejection and a possible BUY entry.

Bearish breakdown below 1.1850 ( 61.8% Fibonacci ) will be a valid SELL signal if enough bearish pressure is applied against the mentioned zone.

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Global macro overview for 11/01/2018

Policy makers in Beijing reportedly recommend slowing or stopping purchases of US government bonds as part of the review of the policy of investing giant currency reserves - Bloomberg reports, citing its anonymous sources. The agency has not received official confirmation of its information at SAFE (State Administration of Foreign Exchange) - the Chinese agency responsible for managing foreign reserves.

China is next to Japan the largest foreign creditor of the United States. According to the data of the US Treasury Department, at the end of October 2017, the State had Treasury bonds based on a total of USD 1,198.2 billion. US obligations towards Japan amounted to 1093.9 billion USD. China's foreign exchange reserves are the largest in the world and amount to 3.1 trillion dollars.

It is true that China has not been increasing its commitment to US debt for several years, but the possibility of abandoning the purchase of US bonds in the world of finance is considered the equivalent of the use of nuclear weapons. Therefore, the market reaction to Bloomberg's revelations was determined, but not panicky. Yet.

Let's now take a look at the SPY (SP500 ETF) technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has made just another higher high at the level of 275.26, but then opened with a gap down after the Chinese news was released. Currently, the price is trading at the short-term trend line support and in case of a further breakout, the next technical support is seen at the level of 272.18.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for January 11, 2018

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Daily Outlook

A recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards next price zones around 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) and 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

Recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhanced the bearish side of the market. This brought the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) which failed to pause the ongoing bearish momentum.

An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart which initiated bearish reversal.

As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why, further bearish decline was expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).

Evident signs of bullish recovery was expressed around the recent low (0.6780). That's why, a bullish pullback is expected towards 0.7150 and 0.7240.

The current price zone of 0.7140-0.7250 is considered a prominent Supply-Zone to be watched for SELL positions if enough bearish rejection is expressed on a daily basis.

On the other hand, the price zone of 0.7050-0.6980 has turned to be a newly-established demand zone to be watched for BUY entries if any bearish pullback occurs.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders should wait for daily closure below the price level of 0.7140 as a valid SELL signal. Initial T/P levels should be located at 0.7050 and 0.6980.

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Bitcoin analysis for January 11, 2018

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Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $12.594 (first target met). Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan Chase says he regrets calling bitcoin a fraud. Now, legacy bank Goldman Sachs is formally recognizing how cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin could act as global money. 2018 might be shaping up to be the year bitcoin gets more mainstream than ever. The technical picture looks bearish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 4H time - frame, the bearish pennant is progresing very good. The hidden bearish divergence in the backgorund is now confirmed. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $10.651 and at the prrice of $8.225.

Support/Resistance

$14.902 – Intraday resistance (price action)

$12.594– Intraday support

$10.651 – Objective target 1

$8.225 – Objective target 2

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Analysis of Gold for January 11, 2018

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Recently, Gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1,319.00. According to the 30M time – frame, I found a successful rejection of resistance at the prrice of $1,325.00, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found a bearish flag in creation and my advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The projected downward target is set at the price of $1308.00.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1.328.00

R2: $1,338.00

R3: $1,347.50

Support levels:

S1: $1,308.00

S2: $1,299.45

S3: $1,289.35

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Analysis of Gold for January 11, 2018

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Recently, Gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1,319.00. According to the 30M time – frame, I found a successful rejection of resistance at the prrice of $1,325.00, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found a bearish flag in creation and my advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The projected downward target is set at the price of $1308.00.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1.328.00

R2: $1,338.00

R3: $1,347.50

Support levels:

S1: $1,308.00

S2: $1,299.45

S3: $1,289.35

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for January 11, 2018

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Overview:

  • The pivot point of USD/CHF is set at the point of 0.9810 in the H1 chart. Also, it should be noted that the USD/CHF pair broke resistance which turned to strong support at the levels of 0.9786 and 9756 yesterday. The level of 0.9786 coincides with a golden ratio (38.2% of Fibonacci), which is expected to act as major support today. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is considered overbought because it is above 70. The RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it is still strong above the moving average (100). This suggests that the pair will probably go up in coming hours. Accordingly, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. In other words, buy orders are recommended above 0.9756 with the first target at the level of 0.9835. From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.9869 and further to the level of 0.9889. The level of 0.9889 will act as a strong resistance and the double top is already set at the point of 0.9913. On the other hand, the stop loss should be placed at 0.9750.
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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for January 11, 2018

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Overview:

  • On the one-hour chart, the NZD/USD pair bullish trend from the support levels of 0.7152 and 0.7171. Currently, the price is in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. As the price is still above the moving average (100), immediate support is seen at 0.7171, which coincides with a golden ratio (61.8% of Fibonacci). Consequently, the first support is set at the level of 0.7171. So, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 0.7171. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the golden ratio (0.7171) with the first target at the level of 0.7231. We should see the pair climbing towards the double top (1.0255) to test it. Furthermore, if the trend is able to breakout through the double top, then the trendi will continue towards the next objectives of 0.7254 and 0.7271. It would also be wise to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 0.7152.
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EUR/USD analysis for January 11, 2018

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.1929. Anyway, according to the 1H time – frame, I found a fake breakout of the support trendline, which is sign that selling looks risky. I also found a hidden bullish divergence on the moving average oscillator, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.1970 and at the price of 1.2015.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.2003

R2: 1.2060

R3: 1.2099

Support levels:

S1: 1.1907

S2: 1.1865

S3: 1.1811

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Bitcoin analysis for 11/01/2018

As a result of a blow to Bitcoin enthusiasts, Microsoft Corporation officially removed the payment option using cryptocurrencies from its payment instruments. Despite such a decision, former CEO - Bill Gates - expressed strong support for Bitcoin.

Microsoft's decision was confirmed by public talks with representatives of Customer Service. The main reason for this determination is the volatility and risk associated with the digital currency. Customers, however, can still use Bitcoin to add money to their Microsoft account. Accounts can be used to buy games, movies and applications, but these funds are not available in the Microsoft store itself. In addition, the funds are not refundable.

Microsoft is one of the major providers that has removed the Bitcoin payment option. Other companies, such as Square, added BTC service in 2017. However, with the significant increase in prices and volatility in the last quarter of last year, the risk for companies such as Microsoft increased.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The price is testing the level lower triangle pattern trend line around the level of $13,200, just above the local support at the level of $12,462. If this level is violated, then the market will test the level of $12,020 and possibly $11,152. The last one is the key level for bulls as any breakout lower will likely extend the sell-off to the level of $9,000. On the other hand, the nearest resistance is seen at the level of $15,553 as the corrective pattern unfolds.

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Trading plan for 11/01/2018

The US Dollar is recovering some of the losses from Wednesday under the influence of the Chinese news regarding the demand for US bonds. USD/JPY coming to test 111,85, EUR/USD reversed towards 1,1940. AUD jumped after very good retail sales data, but there is no continuation of the up move. The stock market in Asia flattered, just as Wall Street. Flat trading conditions are seen in Crude Oil as well.

On Thursday 11th of January, the event calendar is quite busy today, with news coming from the UK ( BoE Credit Conditions Survey data), Eurozone ( Industrial Production and ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts data), Canada (New Housing Price Index data) and the US ( PPI and Core PPI data).

AUD/USD analysis for 11/01/2018:

Retail Dales in Australia in November increased by a staggering 1.2% on a monthly basis, three times stronger than expected number of 0.4% and over two times more than the last figure of 0.5%. Retail Sales are a leading indicator for the economy and are a good gauge for goods sold at retail outlets in the past month/year. Rising consumer spending fuels economic growth confirms signals from consumer confidence and may spark inflationary pressures. The rise in inflationary pressures is the indicator that the Reserve bank of Australia is mostly interested in as the inflation is still below the RBA target.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. AUD unambiguously reacted to the data with a jump to 0.7886, but in the following hours, the volatility expired. The level of 0.7886 is 61% Fibo retracement of the previous swing down, so it will be acting as a resistance to the price. Moreover, there is a clear bearish divergence between the price and the momentum oscillator, so the test of the nearest technical support at the level of 0.7806 is very possible.

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Market Snapshot: USD/CAD at the key resistance zone

The price of USD/CAD is now testing the key technical resistance zone between the levels of 1.2556 - 1.2598. There is 38% Fibo retracement at the level of 1.2577 as well, which makes this zone even stronger. The next important resistance is at the level of 1.2623, close to the 50% Fibo at the level of 1.2641.

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Market Snapshot: DXY is back to the channel zone

The price of US Dollar Index tried to test the recent lows at the level of 91.76, but the demand has pushed the price back up quickly. No new high or low was made yet, so the market stays inside of the channel. The momentum is still positive for bull, but not too strong. The market conditions are overbought. The ney level to the upside is 92.64.

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The euro and the pound are giving up positions

Eurozone

Economic prospects for the euro area remain stable, statistics in favor of the euro. Germany, as the locomotive of the entire eurozone, continues to please investors with the growth of all key indicators. The industrial production in November increased by 3.4%, year-on-year growth was already 5.6%, this is the best result for 6 years. The trade balance is confidently surplus, the budget deficit is eliminated, the ratio of the national debt to GDP is steadily declining.

The economy of the euro area as a whole is also on the rise. According to the European Commission, the index of business sentiment is at record levels for the entire history of observations, a similar result is the confidence index from Sentix, which rose in January to 32.9p, exceeding forecasts. The growth of retail sales in November has sharply accelerated, which gives grounds to count on the growth of consumer activity.

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In general, the economic situation supports the euro more strongly than one would have guessed if we focus on the dynamics of spreads. The yields of 10-year US bonds are steadily growing, as the Fed continues tightening policy, but investors are not in a hurry to withdraw their capital to the US due to unclear economic prospects.

The euro continues to hold positions near the reached highs, the further movement will depend on the publication of data on inflation in the USA on Friday. At the moment, EUR/USD forms the second peak near the resistance 1.20, following the results of the week the rate may decrease to 1.1880. However, it is too early to speak about changing the orientation to the south.

The United Kingdom

The pound received several positive signals this week, which allowed it to stay on the growth trajectory against the dollar. Retail sales, according to BRC, rose 0.6% in December, exceeding the forecast of 0.4% and positively affecting consumer activity, which is still too low. The growth of industrial production in November significantly exceeded forecasts, that is, the expected decline was not deep.

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NIESR published an estimate of GDP growth for the last three months to December inclusive, it was 0.6%, which is higher than the forecast of 0.5% and, especially, above the previous estimate in November of 0.4%. In total, NIESR expects to see growth in 2017, 1.8%, slightly higher than the preliminary estimates voiced earlier.

Usually, NIESR forecasts cause interest before the quarterly meetings of the Bank of England, as they allow to assess possible changes in macroeconomic forecasts. However, until the next BoE meeting on February 8 is still quite a lot of time, so the pound calmly reacted to good reporting. Pound movements until the end of the week will depend on external factors, which will give additional chances to the bears. The pound is under pressure, most likely the decline to support 1.3420.

Oil and the ruble

The commodity stocks of oil in the US, according to the Ministry of Energy, fell by 4.9 million barrels last week, which led to an increase in oil quotations. Traders did not react to the deceleration of production at once by 290 thousand barrels per day, or on the tension around Iran, which may end with another attempt of sanctions pressure from the US. Winter is approaching the equator, which means that the end of the seasonal demand factor is approaching.

All these factors under other circumstances could provoke a corrective decline, but the market is still focused on the general interest of growth to risk, supported by high rates of global recovery. The oil is moving to new highs. If nothing unexpected happens, the market will see Brent reaching the level of $ 70 / bbl. already in the next few days.

The ruble reacts weakly to rising oil prices, awaiting news from the Ministry of Finance about the possible introduction of new rules for buying foreign currency. The gradual withdrawal from the speculative capital market, caused by the planned reduction in the CBR's rate, is affecting, however, the influx of portfolio investments is growing. The ruble has no direction and can stay at current levels until the end of the week.

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Technical analysis of USDX for January 11, 2018

The Dollar index initially was weak due to the announcement by the Chinese officials regarding the attractiveness of US Bonds. Price has broken during the day below 92.20 and tested support at 91.75. The lows were not tested, and price made a higher low.

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Blue line - long-term resistance

USDX got rejected at the 38% Fibonacci retracement and is now trying to challenge this resistance. A break above this level will be a bullish sign that will imply that the index is heading towards 93-93.50. Big medium-term trend resistance is at 93.5-94. Another rejection at 92.60 will be a very bearish sign.

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Technical analysis of gold for January 11, 2018

Gold price made a new high yesterday near $1,328 but the oscillators did not confirm it and price fell back down towards $1,315. Price is trading in a sideways manner right now in a tight range.

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Blue line - diverging highs

Red line - support

Gold price is trading above the Ichimoku clouds. Trend remains bullish but I 'm very sure we are in a topping process and prices will come down sharply towards $1,285. Short-term support that must be broken for this scenario to come true is at $1,309. Resistance is at $1,325-28. Breaking above it should push price towards $1,334.

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On a daily basis I expect price to move lower towards at least the 38% Fibonacci retracement and the cloud support between $1,270 and $1,285. Yesterday;s daily candle tells me that there are more sellers than buyers at $1,320 and higher in Gold and we should see some weakness affecting price lower today or the latest next week.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for January 10, 2018

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USD/CHF is under pressure. The pair keeps trading on the downside after breaking below a support at 0.9815. Currently, it is at levels around the 20-period moving average, which stands below the 50-period one. A lack of upward momentum is also indicated by the relative strength index staying at levels below the neutrality level of 50. A break below the immediate support at 0.9815 would trigger a further drop toward 0.9735 on the downside.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot point indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: Sell, stop loss at 0.9815, take profit at 0.9735.

Resistance levels: 0.9840, 0.9870, and 0.9915

Support levels: 0.9735, 0.9710, and 0.9665.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for January 10, 2018

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USD/JPY is under pressure. The pair remains capped by the key resistance at 112.00 as well as the descending 50-period moving average. Currently, it is trading at levels around the 20-period moving average. And the relative strength index is yet to recover the neutrality level of 50. Intraday bearishness persists, and the pair is expected to pull back to 111.05 before declining further to 110.85.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a short position is recommended below 112.00 with a target of 112.40.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, stop loss at 112.00, take profit at 111.05.

Resistance levels: 112.40, 112.80, and 113.25

Support levels: 111.05, 110.85, and 110.50.

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