Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for October 28, 2015

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The pair moved lower after breaking below the major demand levels around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously established back in July 2012 and June 2010.

EUR/USD bears have already pushed the price slightly below the monthly demand level of 1.0550 (established in January 1997). Bullish recovery was observed shortly after.

April's candlestick came as bullish engulfing one. However, the next monthly candlesticks (June, July, August, and September) reflected the recent bearish rejection, which exists around the level of 1.1450 (depicted on the chart with small red arrows).

Hence, in the long term, a projected target will be still seen at 0.9450 if a bearish breakdown occurs at the monthly demand level of 1.0550.

On the other hand, a bullish corrective movement towards 1.1500 and 1.1700 can take place only if the current monthly candlestick closes above 1.1465 (weekly high) by the end of this month (very low probability).

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Multiple ascending bottoms were previously established around the levels of 1.0830 and 1.1020. These levels corresponded to a current daily uptrend depicted on the chart.

On August 24, the market looked overbought as bulls were pushing the price further beyond the level of 1.1500 (daily supply level).

Hence, a bearish movement was expressed towards the level of 1.1150 (61.8% Fibonacci level), which provided evident bullish rejections for several times in a row.

Recently, the intraday supply zone of 1.1360-1.1400 provided significant bearish rejection. An intraday sell entry was suggested.T/P levels located at 1.1150 and 1.1050 were all reached.

As anticipated, daily persistence below the level of 1.1150 (61.8% Fibonacci level) exposed the price level of 1.1050 where the daily uptrend comes to meet the EUR/USD pair. Daily breakdown of the uptrend line has been executed on Friday.

The price level of 1.1000 remains a significant demand level. Recent bullish recovery has already been observed during this week.

However, daily persistence below 1.1000 should be anticipated. This enhances the long-term bearish scenario with a projected target at 1.0600.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.1100-1.1150 (backside of the broken uptrend line and 61.8% Fibonacci level) constitutes a significant supply level to be watched for valid sell entries for EUR/USD bears.

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Technical analysis of DAX for October 28, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The DAX has retraced to Fibonacci 0.618 levels and reversed from the level of 10,863 on October 26, 2015. A drop from recent highs seems to be corrective in nature and another test cannot be ruled out. But looking at the overall structure, the next big move should be done towards 8400. It is hence recommended to initiate 50% short positions remaining around 11,250 with risk at 11,350. Immediate support is seen at 10.200 followed by 9,900 and lower, while resistance is seen at 10,900 (interim) followed by 11,115 and higher.

Trading recommendations:

Initiate 50% short positions remaining around 11,250, with stop at 11,350 and a target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for October 28, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The AUD/USD pair reversed from the sub-level of 0.7400 last week trying to find interim support at 0.7080 levels. Please note that the level of 0.7080 is at Fibonacci convergence as shown here, and it could prove a major infliction point. A bullish bounce there could reverse the trend and bring bulls back into play again. On the flip side, the pair could drift all the way lower to 0.6900. It is hence recommended to remain flat for now and watch for a reaction at 0.7080. Immediate support is seen at 0.7080 while resistance is seen at 0.7300.

Trading recommendations:

Stay flat, watch out around 0.7080.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for October 28, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The USD/CAD pair is trading around 1.3210/12 at the moment and might be preparing for a larger/deeper correction lower before resuming an uptrend. As depicted on the H4 chart, the pair could be unfolding a potential head and shoulder reversal and might have formed the Right Shoulder at 1.3275 as well. It is hence recommended to initiate 50% short positions now remaining 50% around 1.3320, in case it gets reached, with risk at 1.3450/60. Immediate support is seen at 1.3125 followed by 1.3050 and lower, while resistance is seen at 1.3320 followed by 1.3450 and higher.

Trading recommendations:

Initiate 50% short positions remaining at 1.3320, stop is at 1.3450, a target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Crude for October 28 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Crude prices seem to have bounced off its Fibonacci 0.618 support around the level of 42.50 yesterday. An entire rally that had begun at 37.40 through 51.00 has been retraced and bounced off the levels of 42.50. A correction might expand lower towards 41.72 before resuming its previous rally. It is therefore recommended to remain long from yesterday with risk at 38.00 and extensions up to 56.00. Immediate support is seen through 41.80 followed by 38.50 and lower, while resistance is seen at 48.00 (interim) followed by 51.00 and higher.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long with stop at 38.00, a target is at the level of 56.00.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Gold for October 28 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold is seen to be trading around the $1,172.00 levels for the moment, still being well below initial resistance at the $1,180.00 levels. If the yellow metal holds the $1,180.00 levels, the next leg should be lower towards $1,138.00. Please note that the drop would still be considered to be corrective and will provide a better opportunity to initiate fresh long positions. It is hence recommended to remain flat for now and look to buy lower. Immediate support is seen at the $1,150 levels, followed by $1,130.00, $1,100.00 and lower, while resistance is seen to be at the $1,180.00 levels, followed by $1,190.00, $1,230.00 and higher.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now and look to buy around $1,137.00.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Silver for October 28 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver is moving higher and is seen to be trading around the levels of $16.06. The metal, if trades above $16.10, could move through the levels of $16.50/60 before performing a meaningful correction. It is hence recommended to remain flat and watch for the metal to correct lower before placing long positions again. Immediate support is seen at $15.30 followed by $15.00, $14.40, and lower, while resistance is seen at $16.40/50 followed by $17.50 and higher.

Trading recommendations:

Stay flat.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for October 28 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY pair is seen to be trading around the 133.12 levels for now, looking to push higher at least up to the 134.20/50 levels. Please note that the consolidation support line would provide resistance at these levels. It is hence recommended to initiate long positions with risk at the 132.68 levels. Immediate support is seen at 132.68 (interim), followed by 132.25 and lower, while resistance is seen at the 134.00 levels, followed by 134.50 and higher. Bulls might be in control until prices stay above the 132.68 levels. A push above 134.50 could see the pair testing higher levels around 136.70.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long now, stop is at 132.68, target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for October 28, 2014

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Overview:

  • The resistance of the USD/CAD pair was broken and it turned into support at the same key level (1.3144). So, support has already been set at the price of 1.3144 and the double bottom was set at the same price too. Equally important, the trend saw the bullish market and the the price is above the support since yesterday. We expect a range of 178 pips (1.3144 - 1.3322) in coming days. As expected, the price will move between 1.3160 and 1.3312. Therefore, the USD/CAD pair started showing the signs of the bullish market from the spot of 1.3160 - 1.3142. Consequently, the market indicates the bullish opportunity at the level of 1.3150 with the first target at 1.3295, and probably continues moving towards the level of 1.3322 (78.6% Fibonacci Expansion).

Trading recommendations:

  • Buy above the area of 1.3144 with the target of 1.3322. On the other hand, the stop loss should always be taken into account, hence it will be profitable to set your stop loss at the 1.3104 price.

Observations:

  • It should be noted that the level of 1.3144 represents strong support on October 28, 2015. Moreover, the same level coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement levels. Consequently, the pair is going to form strong support at the 1.3144 price.
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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for October 28 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/CHF pair might have begun its corrective move lower towards the level of 1.4750. The 4H chart depicted here indicates the formation of a bearish reversal candlestick pattern confirming the same. Please note that the pair took out the resistance level of 1.5117 yesterday, and a corrective move was expected. Also note that the resistance, which turned support trend line, is currently passing through the level of 1.4900 and a bullish bounce is quite possible at those levels. It is hence recommended to remain aggressively short now with risk at 1.5120 and reverse at lower levels. Immediate support is seen at the level of 1.4950, followed by 1.4750 and lower, while resistance is seen at 1.5350 followed by 1.5400/10 and higher.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short with stop at 1.5120, a target is at 1.4900 and 1.4750. Turn bullish Then.

Good luck!

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Gold analysis for October 28 , 2015

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Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $1,172.00. The short- and mid-term trend changed from neutral to upward. In the daily time frame, we can observe an upward bar in an average volume. In the H1 time frame, we can observe a volume spike (massive selling climax) in the background at the level of $1,158.75. Be careful when selling at this stage since we may expect buyers' reaction. Only if the price breaks the level of $1,158.75, we may see a downward continuation. Otherwise, a breakout of the level of $1,180.00$ will confirm absorption of strong supply.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points :

Resistance levels

R1: 1,166.55

R2: 1,167.50

R3: 1,169.00

Support levels:

S1: 1,163.50

S2: 1,162.00

S3: 1,161.00

Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling gold at this stage and watch for potential buying opportunities. Anyway, I am waiting for a clear trend to be established.

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Global macro overview for 28/10/2015

Global macro overview for 28/10/2015:

The recent data from Australia had proved that the Aussie economy continues to suffer from a global economic slowdown.There were some rumors that the RBA might cut its interest rates earlier this month to stimulate the economy even more, but that did not happen. Anyway, the minutes of last weeks policy meeting revealed some insights about the policy makers thinking. Bankers noticed that the economy had slightly improved due to the lower value of the Australian dollar, but their main problem was the Chinese economy slowdown. This might be the reason why they have decided not to do anything with the interest rates last month leaving them at the same level.

From the technical point of view, the Australian dollar continues to slide down on Wednesday, as AUD/USD trades at the level of 0.71 at the London session. The next important support is seen at the level of 0.7084 and resistance is seen at the level of 0.7200.

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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for October 28, 2015

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Overview:

  • The The AUD/USD pair has still been trading between 0.7202 and 0.7089. Therefore, the first step is to wait for a period of tight sideways market before breakouts. Then, probably, the market is going to start showing bearish signs. In other words, it will be a good sign to sell below the level of 0.7202 with the first target at 0.7090 and the price will drop towards 0.7021 in order to test the second support. Also, it should be noted that the level coincides with a ratio of 32.8% Fibonacci retracement levels. However, if the pair fails to set below the level of 0.7202, the market will indicate a bullish opportunity above 0.7202. Then the level will really act as strong support, it will be a good sign to buy above 0.7202 with the first target at 0.7251 and it will call for an uptrend in order to continue bullish movement towards 0.7280.

Intraday technical levels:

  • Projected high: 0.7280
  • Breakout (buy stop): 0.7210
  • Strong resistance (sell limit): 0.7202
  • Current pivot: 0.7145
  • Strong support (buy limit): 0.7089
  • Breakout (sell stop): 0.7063
  • Projected low: 0.7220
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Global macro overview for 28/10/2015

Global macro overview for 28/10/2015:

The FOMC rate decision and statement is scheduled for release today at 6 pm GMT. Months before, the Fed policy makers has been repeatedly stating that they remain committed to raise rates this year, but the markets have priced in only a 35% chance that it will happen this year. This might be explained rather easily if we consider the quality of statements provided: the Fed has sent very confusing messages that do not provide clarity and transparency. Moreover, a lack of consensus among the Fed members regarding the US job market and inflation is making the statements even more confusing. It's not surprising that investors are stuck between a rock and a hard place, therefore see this as evidence that the Fed cannot hike its rate this year.

The EUR/USD pair is trading quietly inside of the congestion zone ahead of the Fed news release. The next resistance is seen at the level of 1.1086; and support, at the level of 1.0997.

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EUR/NZD analysis for October 28, 2015

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Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving sideways around the level of 1.6400. In the daily time frame, we can observe a neutral bar. Our Fibonacci major retracement 50% held successfully and the price was rejected. An intraday trend is neutral but short-term trend is still downward. The support level is found at 1.6150. If the price breaks the level of 1.6150, we may see a downward continuation. In the H1 time frame, we can observe weak demand bars, which is a sign that buying EUR/NZD looks risky at this stage.

Fibonacci Pivot Points :

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6350

R2: 1.6375

R3: 1.6420

Support levels:

S1: 1.6245

S2: 1.6225

S3: 1.6180

Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying at this stage. Short positions are preferable.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for October 28, 2015

EUR/USD: This pair has rather traded sideways so far this week consolidating in the near term. One thing that causes the current bearish journey is the fact that the price is close to the psychological level at 1.1000, and it needs exceptional bearish stamina to breach it to the downside. The major bias is bearish and when momentum returns to the market, it would most probably favor bears.

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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF pair has assumed its upward journey, which started last week. The price is now above the support level at 0.9850, going towards the resistance level of 0.9900. That resistance level is the second target for this week, and the target could be attained easily in the face of ongoing buying pressure in the market.

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GBP/USD: The market remains weak though it is yet to experience a significant downward trend just like the EUR/USD pair. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart. The EMA 11 is below the EMA 56 and the RSI period 14 is below the level of 50. Further movement to the south is therefore logically anticipated.

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USD/JPY: The USD/JPY pair, which traded strongly northwards last week, has been corrected lower so far. The price has come down by 110 pips this week, but the bias is still bullish. The bullish bias would remain valid as long as the demand level at 119.50 is not breached to the downside.

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EUR/JPY: This cross has continued its bearish journey in a determined manner. The price is now slightly below the supply zone of 113.00; and the bearish bias is supposed to continue, owing to the current weakness in the EUR and stamina in the JPY. For this bias to be reversed, the EUR would need to become stronger than the JPY, which might not be possible this week.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for October 28, 2015

General overview for 28/10/2015 08:10 CET

An impulsive wave progression to the downside is currently looking exhausted as wave c green is completed. The growing bullish divergence between the price and the momentum oscillator supports the view that the re-bound to the upside is taking place. Any breakout above the level of 133.20 opens the road to the weekly pivot test at the level of 134.31.

Support/Resistance:

132.28 - WS1

132.71 - Intraday Support

133.20 - Intraday Resistance

134.31 - Weekly Pivot

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should consider to open buy orders only if the level of 133.20 is violated. SL should be placed below the level of 132.70 and TP should be set at the level of 134.31.

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USDX technical analysis for October 28, 2015

The US dollar index is most probably making a short-term bullish flag but with limited upside potential. The USDX is well-supported by dollar bulls, but traders should be very cautious specially today since we are awaiting the FOMC meeting.

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Blue line - support

The US dollar index tested successfully the blue horizontal trend-line support, which was once resistance and got broken, This successful test implies that more upside should be expected today specially if we take into account the FOMC meeting scheduled for tonight. However, with stochastic at overbought levels bulls should be very cautious and use tight stops.

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Black line - weekly resistance

The US dollar index is testing the important weekly resistance line. This could turn out to be a big rejection and we could see prices pulling back towards cloud support near 95. Volatility is expected to rise tonight, so traders should be very cautious and wary of potential fake breakouts. A confirmed breakout above resistance will imply all pullbacks should be bought as the longer-term target is seen at new highs.

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Gold technical analysis for October 28, 2015

Gold price is showing some bullish signs. It is trying to break above the short-term bearish channel and if this breakout happens, we should expect gold price to move above $1,190 closer to $1,200 to reach a new higher high in October.

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Black lines - bearish channel

Gold price has bounced off the 38% Fibonacci retracement and is testing a short-term channel and cloud resistance at $1,170-75. A break above this resistance area will be a bullish sign as this will imply that the correction is over and chances to hit a new high is very strong in October. Support is found at $1,160 and this should be used as stop for long positions.

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Black lines - bullish wedge formation

Weekly gold price formation shows how gold price remains below the Ichimoku cloud, thus longer-term trend remains bearish, but the formation could have already ended and gold could be preparing for an important breakout, which could signal that a long-term low is in. As the level of $1,200 is important resistance, I would expect a deeper pullback from that area. Whether it is a new low or not it does not matter as the downward potential for gold price is limited. Gold is most probably preparing for a long-term reversal and we should be patient. The weekly chart will definitely show it to us.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for October 28, 2015

General overview for 28/10/2015 07:50 CET

The price is moving inside the black channel. It has already moved above the 61% Fibo level. The wave development is still impulsive, but the current internal structure indicates a possible corrective sub-cycle to be made soon as wave -iv- blue develops. The internal invalidation line is at the level of 1.3197 ( intraday support). The first projected target for wave -v- is seen at the level of 1.3316.

Support/Resistance:

1.3316 - WR1

1.3278 - Intraday Resistance

1.3197 - Intraday Support

1.3109 - Weekly Pivot

Trading recommendations:

The stop loss orders for all open buy orders should now be moved higher and set at the level of 1.3277. TP level is still at the level of 1.3316.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for October 28, 2015

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Wave summary:

With a breakout above 1.6390 we can see the first indication that a bottom was found at 1.6124 and a new impulsive rally is about to develop. The next resistance to look for is found at 1.6546 and a breakout above here will be a strong indication of a bottom being in place and for a continuation higher to 1.6950 or just above this resistance. To mark the top of wave i.

Trading recommendation:

We bought EUR at 1.6390 and have placed our stop at 1.6180. If you are not long EUR yet, buy EUR near 1.6390 and use the same stop at 1.6180.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for October 28, 2015

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Wave summary:

We have seen an expected breakout below support at 132.98 for a continuation lower towards strong support near 132.17. We will ideally find the bottom of wave (iii) at 132.17 and set the stage for a correction in wave (iv) back to 133.92 before lower in wave (v).

Short-term resistance is seen at 133.23 and again at 133.51. The later should ideally protect the upside for a continuation lower to 132.17.

Trading recommendation:

We are short EUR from 135.95 and will move our stop lower to 133.55 and keep our take profit at 132.25.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for October 28, 2015

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When the European market opens, some economic news on the German 10-y Bond Auction, GfK German Consumer Climate, and German Import Prices m/m is due to be released.The US will unveil economic data on the Federal Funds Rate, FOMC Statement, Crude Oil Inventories, and Goods Trade Balance. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with medium to high volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout buy Level: 1.1087.

Strong Resistance:1.1081.

Original Resistance: 1.1070.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1059.

Target Inner Area: 1.1033.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1007.

Original Support: 1.0996.

Strong Support: 1.0985.

Breakout sell Level: 1.0979.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for October 28, 2015

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In Asia, Japan will release data on the Retail Sales y/y today. The US will post economic news about the Federal Funds Rate, FOMC Statement, Crude Oil Inventories, and Goods Trade Balance. So, there is a strong probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during the Asian session, but with medium to high volatility during the US session.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 120.98.

Resistance. 2: 120.74.

Resistance. 1: 120.51.

Support. 1: 120.21.

Support. 2: 119.98.

Support. 3: 119.74.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Daily analysis of Silver for October 28, 2015

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Overview

Silver price continues to fluctuate near 15.85. The price confines within a symmetrical triangle pattern that appears in the chart therefore breaching the resistance level of this pattern at 16.05 will provide a continuation of a bullish trend on a short-term basis. Its next targets is seen at 16.85. We observe an attempt to approach the mentioned resistance level at 16.05, supported by the positive signal that came from stochastic, keeping positive expectations valid for today. It reminds you that breaching the mentioned level will support the expectations of rising towards 16.85. Therefore, we keep preferring the bullish trend in upcoming sessions conditioned by holding above the level of 15.40.

Expected trading range for today is seen between support at 15.40 and resistance at 16.30.

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for October 28, 2015

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Overview

As noted before, price actions from 180.36 are viewed as a consolidation pattern. Choppy recovery from 180.64 is viewed as the third leg. While further rise might be seen, strong resistance at 188.28 is expected to limit a movement upside to finish the consolidation. A breakout at 180.36 will extend a fall from 195.86 and should then target a test at the key support level of 174.86. GBP/JPY was close to key cluster resistance of 61.8% retracement of 251.09 to 116.83 at 199.80, which is close to the psychological level of 200. A break at 174.86 will confirm trend reversal and bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 116.83 to 195.86 at 165.67. In case of another rise, we should be cautious as strong resistance at 199.80/200.00 is expected to bring reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 185.30; (P) 185.68; (R1) 186.22;

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Daily analysis of USDX for October 28, 2015

There is a sideways consolidation above the support level of 96.85 in the H1 chart. Ahead of the FONC meeting, we could expect some volatile moves in favor of the dominant bias, which is bullish. However, if the bearish scenario takes place after the meeting, we can expect a test at the 200 SMA zone in this time frame. The MACD indicator remains at the positive territory.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 97.16 / 97.51

H1 chart's support levels: 96.85 / 96.56

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the US dollar index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is seen at 97.16, take profit is at 97.51, and stop loss is at 96.81.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for October 28, 2015

IThe current structure still seems to call for more downside moves as the pair is consolidating below the 200 SMA in the H1 chart. We can see a lower low pattern formation above the support level of 1.5296. A breakout below that zone will expose the GBP/USD pair to test the level of 1.5262. However, we cannot discard a corrective move until the level of 1.5339.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5339 / 1.5365

H1 chart's support levels: 1.5296 / 1.5262

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is seen at 1.5296, take profit is at 1.5265, and stop loss is at 1.5331.

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Technical analysis of USDX for October 27 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The US Dollar Index might have resumed its last impulse rally towards the 102.00 and 104.00 levels last week, but a push through the 97.50 levels would be extremely encouraging for the bullish sentiment. At the moment, the rally is stalling just ahead of the 98.50 major resistance. The index needs to retrace towards at least the 95.00 levels, Fibonacci 0.618 support, and bounce back to confirm that it is extending further towards the 102.00 levels. It is recommended to remain flat for now and look for a dip towards the 95.00 levels. Immediate support is seen at the 96.00 levels, followed by 95.00 and lower, while resistance is seen at the 98.40/50 levels and higher.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now and look for a bullish reaction around the 95.00 levels.

Good luck!

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