Technical analysis of EUR/USD for November 25, 2019

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Overview:

The EUR/USD pair faced strong support at the level of 1.1051. because resistance became support. The strong resistance has been already faced at the level of 1.1090 and the pair is likely to try to approach it in order to test it again. The EUR/USD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.1051. Today, the pair rose from the level of 1.1051 to a top around 1.1090. The price spot climb up of 1.1051 remains a significant support zone. Therefore, there is a possibility that the EUR/USD pair will move to the upside and rising structure does not look corrective. The bullish outlook remains the same, as long as the 100 EMA is pointing to the upside. The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as long as it remains above the pivot point. long positions are recommended with the first target at 1.1090. A break of that target will move the pair further upwards to 1.1121. The pivot point stands at 1.1051. Please notice that this scenario will be invalidated if the price reverses below the wave 2 lows at the level. A daily closure above 1.1121 allows the pair to make a quick bullish movement towards the next resistance level around 1.1152. However, traders should watch for any signs of bearish rejection that occur around 1.1028. But overall I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for November 25, 2019

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Overview:

The EUR/USD pair faced strong support at the level of 1.1051. because resistance became support. The strong resistance has been already faced at the level of 1.1090 and the pair is likely to try to approach it in order to test it again. The EUR/USD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.1051. Today, the pair rose from the level of 1.1051 to a top around 1.1090. The price spot climb up of 1.1051 remains a significant support zone. Therefore, there is a possibility that the EUR/USD pair will move to the upside and rising structure does not look corrective. The bullish outlook remains the same, as long as the 100 EMA is pointing to the upside. The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as long as it remains above the pivot point. long positions are recommended with the first target at 1.1090. A break of that target will move the pair further upwards to 1.1121. The pivot point stands at 1.1051. Please notice that this scenario will be invalidated if the price reverses below the wave 2 lows at the level. A daily closure above 1.1121 allows the pair to make a quick bullish movement towards the next resistance level around 1.1152. However, traders should watch for any signs of bearish rejection that occur around 1.1028. But overall I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase.

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Trading plan for EUR/USD for November 25, 2019

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Technical outlook:

EUR/USD dropped sharply on Friday, falling in line with our expectations, and carved a higher low at 1.1013 before reversing. We expected this drop to materialize for the last few trading sessions before EUR could resume its rally towards higher levels (1.1190, 1.1500). It is also highly probable that a potential low is already in place around 1.0990 levels, and prices should stay above that, going forward. At this point in writing, EUR/USD is trading at around 1.1030 levels and is looking to produce a bullish reversal. With the bullish structure still firmly intact, the current drop should be seen as an opportunity to go long and also add further long positions. Risk remains at 1.0879 since the bullish structure would be considered as void only if prices break below that support. The current drop has found support at the fibonacci 0.786 retracement of the recent upswing between 1.0990 and 1.1097 levels respectively. Immediate resistance on the 4H chart is seen at 1.1087 levels and a break above that would confirm that bulls are back and here to stay.

Trading plan:

Remain long against 1.0879, add fresh long positions, target 1.1190, 1.1500

Good luck!

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Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 11/25/2019 and trading recommendation

The single European currency reacted rather violently to preliminary data on business activity indices both in Europe and the United States. Moreover, they showed completely different results than expected. Thus, the index of business activity in the services sector in Europe did not increase from 52.2 to 52.5, but instead fell to 51.5. Largely because of this, the composite index of business activity decreased from 50.6 to 50.3, although it was predicted to grow to 50.9. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector at least somehow pleased, as it grew from 45.9 to 46.6. Indeed, it should be noted that they were already waiting for its growth, but only to 46.4. So it is not surprising that against this background, the single European currency immediately began to lose its position.

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But the difficulties for the single European currency did not end there, since preliminary data on business activity indices of the United States, unlike Europe, turned out to be better than forecasts. In particular, the index of business activity in the services sector grew from 50.6 to 51.6, while they expected growth to 51.0. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector grew from 51.3 not to 51.5, but already to 52.2. The result of all this was an increase in the composite business activity index from 50.9 to 51.9. As a result, we once again observe how statistics show us the worsening situation in Europe and the improvement in the United States.

Composite Business Activity Index (United States):

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In general, investors have already fully completed preliminary data on business activity indices, so the market needs new ideas. Which today is simply not there. At least some IFO data for Germany may be of interest. In particular, the index of economic expectations should grow from 91.5 to 92.5. Business optimism index from 94.6 to 95.0. Well, an indicator of the current situation, from 97.8 to 98.0. The only trouble is that these indicators do not affect the market in any way, and not only because the majority of market participants do not understand what they mean, but also for the simple reason that they concern only Germany and not Europe as a whole. Thus, in the absence of any ideas and guidelines, the market will hang around current values.

In terms of technical analysis, the EUR/USD currency pair nevertheless managed to show the proper fluctuation and also overcame one of the control points of 1.1055/1.1100, which led to an impulsive movement and as a fact the resumption of the recovery process. What we had was a variable flat of 1.1055/1.1080 at the correction stage, which nevertheless fell, and we saw a characteristic acceleration towards the recovery process. In turn, the control point in the face of the psychological level of 1.1000 has not been reached, thus there is still support, where stagnation/pullback occurred near it.

It is likely to assume that the psychological level of 1.1000 will try to keep the quotation, as it was on record, having a kind of amplitude within it as a result. Thus, to begin with, it is worth considering a control convergence with a fluctuation of 25/30 points, which will already be a good sign, then we analyze the price consolidation points. An alternative scenario will not allow the quote to come close to the level of 1.1000 and stagnation with a return point will already form relative to the current coordinates.

We concretize all of the above into trading signals:

- We consider long positions in case of price consolidation higher than 1.1035, not a puncture shadow.

- We consider short positions at 1.1015, with the prospect of a move to 1.1000. The further course is considered after the breakout of the psychological level and price consolidation lower than 1.0990.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that the main range of technical tools on hourly and daily intervals signal a downward interest. Minute intervals work at a variable pivot point and stagnation, providing a versatile signal.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on November 25. The downward momentum could continue

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

So far, buyers of the British pound aren't able to keep the pair from a downward correction. The small shift in the situation ahead of the election in favor of the Labour Party put pressure on the British pound, as well as weak data on activity in the service sector. Now, the bulls need to quickly regain the resistance of 1.2861 and gain a foothold on it in the first half of the day, as only this will allow them to build an upward correction in the area of the high of 1.2892, where I recommend profit taking. If the bears continue to act so actively, then it is best to return to buying only if a false breakout is formed in the support area of 1.2829, but it is best to open long positions immediately for a rebound from a low of 1.2800.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

It is enough for sellers not to let the pair move above the resistance of 1.2861 in the first half of the day, and the formation of a false breakout at this level will be a signal to open short positions with a view to further downward movement. However, a more important task for the bears will be to break through and consolidate below the support of 1.2829 at the beginning of the week, which will help maintain momentum and reach fairly important levels of 1.2800 and 1.2769, where I recommend profit taking. No important fundamental data on the UK will be released today so the focus will again be shifted to political games before the elections to be held in December this year.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted below 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates the bearish nature of the market and which act as a kind of resistance levels.

Bollinger bands

Growth will be limited by the upper level of the indicator at 1.2865, while the downward trend will be restrained by the lower level at 1.2820.

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Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - Moving Average Convergence / Divergence). Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9.
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20.
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The dollar has every chance to continue growth in the currency markets (we expect a continuation of the decline of the EUR/USD

The markets are confident that negotiations on the so-called "phase one" will end on a positive note in spite of the trading rallies between Washington and Beijing in recent days.

It is assumed that the first stage of a large trade agreement called "Phase One" will be concluded at the beginning of the new year. Despite the fact that D. Trump and the Chinese side had intended to conclude a trade deal earlier in November, its actual transfer to the beginning of the new year does not seem to scare investors. This is clearly manifested in the dynamics of defensive assets.

On the other hand, the quotes of gold turned down by the end of last week and strengthened their decline during the Asian trading session on Monday. Yields on American treasuries also rolled up. Therefore, the benchmark yield of 10-year-old traders, noting a local minimum at 1.707%, is being traded at the beginning of the new week in electronic trading at 1.784. More so, consolidating not far from the reached maximum value is pulling up although the Japanese yen remains in a sideways trend. A similar trend is shown by the pair US dollar / Swiss franc.

Regarding the dynamics of the currency exchange market, it is worth noting that the US dollar is strengthening its position against a basket of major currencies, as well as the currencies of developing countries. The main reason for this is the publication last week of positive economic statistics from America, as well as the publication of the minutes of the October meeting of the Fed, which signals both the regulator and the markets that we should not expect at least until the middle of next year some kind of decision to reduce the rate levels. This supports the dollar, because, unlike the Federal Reserve, investors expect continued dominance of soft monetary policies among the world's largest central banks. The dynamics of the ICE dollar index clearly indicates the reversal dynamics of the index, which increased on Friday after the publication of strong data on the US manufacturing and services PMI, as well as a marked increase in the consumer expectations indicator from the University of Michigan.

According to the data presented, business activity indices in the manufacturing and US services sectors rose to 52.2 points from 51.3 points, respectively, while the rate from the University of Michigan added to 87.3 points from 84.2 points.

Assessing the current moderately positive background from the negotiations of US-China trade and strong US economic statistics, we believe that the dollar has high chances to continue to grow in the currency exchange markets this week.

Forecast of the day:

EUR/USD remains under pressure amid strong data on the US economy, which significantly reduces the possibility of continuing to lower rates by the Federal Reserve in the near foreseeable future, unlike the ECB. Thus, we consider it possible to continue selling the pair after its decline below the level of 1.1015 with a likely target of 1.0975.

Gold on the spot implements the pattern of the continuation of the trend of the "rising flag". We believe that gold will continue to decline by 1445.30 after breaking the level of 1556.00.

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The markets finish winning back positivity, JPY forms local top, and CAD may continue to increase

On Friday, the dollar received substantial support and ended the week on a positive note. Markit PMI indexes in November, and both the service sector and the manufacturing sector showed an increase This growth was higher than expected. In addition, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index rose in November to 96.8 points from the October level of 95.5 points, which turned out to be better than expected. Therefore, positivity was supported by US statements about the possibility of concluding the first part of the trade agreement with China before the end of the year.

The markets very quickly came to the conclusion that the "phase one" of the trade agreement is almost ready. As a result, the demand for defensive assets decreases. On the other hand, gold is trading lower. Nevertheless, on Friday evening, the US stock indices continue their growth, and thus, in general, the positivity is quite justified. However, we must not forget that the United States is demanding that China stop the weakening of the yuan, which could mean problems for the Chinese economy against the backdrop of a slowdown in production and a decline in exports. The development of the domestic market is seen as a logical way out, but here, the USA insists on abandoning the "2025 program." The goal of which is the transition to a new technological structure. In other words, the United States requires China to significantly slow down its technological development and only in this case, the probability of a deal will remain high according to the United States.

Moreover, the dollar will receive a hint on Tuesday since J. Powell is expected to make a statement. Data on orders for durable goods and personal expenses, in turn, will be released on Wednesday. If they are worse than expected, then the threat of a recession will come to the fore again, which will return the demand for defensive assets.

USD/CAD

Loonie started moving towards 1.3140 / 50, but was stopped by an unexpected comment by Wilkins Bank of Canada First Deputy Governor, stating that the Bank has the ability to manipulate rates and, if necessary, revise inflation target and labor market conditions. Her speech raised doubts about financial stability, with the result that the loonie rose to 1.3325.

At the same time, BoC CEO Poloz corrected his impression a little on Thursday, saying that monetary policy is now "fully adapted" and has mitigated the risks of further easing.

This week, the main event for Canada is the publication of GDP data. Christmas sales have begun, the dangers of a decline in consumer activity have not yet been seen,and in any case, the latest retail reports are stable.

The report on CFTC last Friday showed that speculators mostly stay in long positions on CAD. The fundamental data do not give directions, so loonie is likely to remain in a wide range between 1.3190 and 1.3380. The technical picture is also mixed. On the one hand, the sharp growth of USDCAD on Tuesday restored the chances of an upward trend, while on the other hand, another local maximum has formed, which is again slightly lower than the previous one, and most likely, the level of 1.33 should be considered as an opportunity to sell. The immediate target is 1.3250 / 70, then 1.3230.

USD/JPY

Despite the fact that business activity in Japan is slowing down, forecasts for the general state of the economy are still positive.

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Retail sales have increased in the last 2 months, with September growth being highest since March 2014. (9.2% y / y), which is caused by the introduction of the increased consumption tax rate. Inflation is also stable and the forecast for the labor market remains bullish. Meanwhile, the consumer confidence index rose in September for the first time in 23 months.

The demand for the yen is directly dependent on speculation on trade negotiations between the US and China. USD/JPY and USD/CNY are trading with a pronounced negative correlation, thus, any weakening of the yuan will automatically lead to the strengthening of the yen and vice versa. The end of last week was marked by positive expectations, but on Monday, demand for defensive assets is likely to increase. USD/JPY will form a local peak below the previous maximum of 109.06, after which it is likely to resume decline to the support zone of 108.20 / 25.

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Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 25/11/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

A new fund has been created to prevent the EU from being lagging behind countries such as the US and China in blockchain innovation and artificial intelligence (AI).

The European Investment Fund (EIF) and the European Commission jointly spent EUR 100 million on a special investment program that will make capital available for AI and Blockchain projects through VC funds or other investors.

After implementing the fund, the EIF said that private investors are expected to contribute up to EUR 300 million to the fund, with this sum likely to increase next year when national promotional banks can co-invest under the program.

According to this entry, the EU on Blockchain is already spending quite a lot (projected expenditure for 2019 is $ 674 million), with the funds mainly focused on research and concept verification. The United States spends the most, with an expected spending of $ 1.1 billion, and China comes second with $ 319 million, according to data from the International Data Corporation.

The new fund aims to remedy that little is spent in the EU on developing 'larger-scale projects'.

"Investing in the portfolio of innovative AI and Blockchain companies will help develop a dynamic EU-wide investor community in AI and Blockchain. By engaging national promotional banks, we can increase the volume of investment at the national level," said EIF.

Technical Market Overview:

The ETH/USD pair has broken below the technical support (now technical resistance) located at the level of $152.28 and made a new lower low at the level of $130.72. The down move continues and there is no sign of reversal yet. The downside momentum is now increasing and the next target for bears is seen at the level of $120.00.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $213.59

WR2 - $198.67

WR1 - $165.68

Weekly Pivot - $151.03

WS1 - $118.96

WS2 - $103.42

WS3 - $72.28

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.

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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on November 25. Weak eurozone economic indicators continue to crush the euro

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

The release of weak reports on the activity of the service sector and production in the eurozone led to a breakout of the lower boundary of the past side channel and the sale of EUR/USD at the end of last week. Currently, all buyers' attention is focused on the resistance of 1.1035, since only consolidation above this level will lead to a larger upward correction to the area of 1.1059, where I recommend profit taking. However, one can count on such growth only after the release of good reports from the IFO Institute, which are expected in the morning. Under the scenario of further downward movement, the bulls will do their best to cling to the support of 1.1008, however, there will only be a signal to buy on the formation of a false breakout. Otherwise, it is best to open long positions on a rebound from a low of 1.0989.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Sellers managed to push support at 1.1055 last Friday and now the primary goal is to maintain the resistance level of 1.1035. The formation of a false breakout on it, along with weak reports on Germany from the IFO institute, can lead to a new wave of EUR/USD decline. However, a more powerful downward momentum will be formed only after the bears consolidate below the support of 1.1008, which will quickly pull down the euro to lows of 1.0989 and 1.0972, where I recommend profit taking. If there is no bearish activity in the morning near the high of 1.1035, it is best to postpone selling the euro until the renewal of the larger resistance of 1.1059.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a bearish nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

In case of an upward correction, updating the upper boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.1059 will be a good signal to open short positions. The downward movement can be restrained by the lower boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.1000.

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Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - Moving Average Convergence / Divergence). Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9.
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 25/11/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

Cryptocurrency exchanges operating illegally in China are facing a new threat after the central bank has announced that it will take new steps to enforce the trade ban.

In a published statement, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) warned that it was taking action against entities allegedly involved in trading cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin. He added that this move is a response to the increase in commercial activity after China's public support of Blockchain technology.

Committing himself to keep his promise to ban the trade, PBoC has sworn to "get rid" of any activity detected under its jurisdiction.

"Once detected, it will be removed immediately and will be prevented from rebooting early," reads the statement in a translation.

Currently, many rumors talk about repression in Chinese outlets of legitimate cryptocurrency companies. Yesterday the attention focused on alleged police raids on Binance and Bithumb offices, which was later denied.

Bitcoin collapsed when news seemed to shake the markets, falling almost 10% and stopping at around $ 7,000.

Technical Market Overview:

The BTC/USD pair has made another lower low at the level of $6,488 and the downtrend continues. The last Elliott wave count has been invalidated due to the wave 1 and wave 2 overlaps. The market continues the move to the south and there is no sign of any reversal yet. The next target for bears is seen at the level of $6,345 and $6,000.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $9,581

WR2 - $9,033

WR1 - $7,830

Weekly Pivot - $7,282

WS1 - $6,055

WS2 - $5,531

WS3 - $4,254

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still down. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.

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EURUSD Preview of the week: Powell's speech, the Hong Kong issue and European inflation

The euro-dollar pair ended the previous trading week with significant losses, although it remained within the price range of 1.0980-1.1090. Traders closed at around 1.1021 last Friday, and today began a new week at the same level. The immediate reason for reducing the pair was the disappointing data on the growth of PMI indices in Europe. The manufacturing sector and the service sector again show a slowdown, and this fact indicates a deceleration in the eurozone economy as a whole.

Only the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in Germany turned out to be in the green zone: instead of the projected decline, it slightly increased (growth has been fixed for the second consecutive month) and is at around 43.8 points. But, firstly, this index still remains below the key 50-point level (which indicates a decrease in production), and secondly, all other PMI indices, both in Germany and in other key European countries, came out worse than expected. Therefore, the likelihood of further easing of the ECB's monetary policy remains high, despite the current split in the regulator's camp and Lagarde's calls for the use of fiscal policy.

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Quite important macroeconomic statistics will also be published this week, which will affect the dynamics of the EUR/USD pair. For example, today we find out data on the growth of the German indicator of the business environment from the IFO agency. Following the disappointing data from PMI and rather optimistic figures from ZEW - it is very interesting as to which side IFO specialists will take. According to preliminary forecasts, the indicator of business environment conditions and the indicator of economic expectations will demonstrate positive dynamics. Otherwise, the euro will be under additional pressure.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is set to speak on Tuesday. He will deliver a speech at the Providence Economic Forum in Rhode Island. As you know, Powell recently met with the US president at the White House. This meeting was quite spontaneous in nature - and this fact alerted many experts. In their opinion, Trump discussed with Powell the prospects for the Fed's monetary policy in the event of another failure in the negotiation process with China. As the head of the White House himself admitted, he raised many topics at the meeting, including the topic of negative rates. The US regulator immediately responded to the president's statement, refuting it in his comment. According to the official position of the Fed, Powell did not discuss the prospects of monetary policy with the country's leader, since such issues are decided by the members of the Fed collectively, based on the current state of affairs. Powell will be able to comment on the current situation himself on Tuesday - although given his caution, he can ignore this topic without going beyond the scope of the forum topics. An indicator of US consumer confidence will also be published on Tuesday. After a slight decline in October, it should slightly recover up to 127 points this November. Data on the volume of home sales in the US primary market will also be released today, which is also projected to show positive dynamics.

You should pay attention to the final assessment of US GDP growth for the third quarter that is set to be released on Wednesday. According to forecasts, this indicator will not be revised, but instead it could cause increased volatility for the pair. I recall that according to preliminary estimates, the US economy slowed down to 1.9%, while the price index of GDP fell to 1.7%. Also on Wednesday, EUR/USD traders will be interested in the main index of personal consumption expenditures, which measures the core level of expenditures and indirectly affects the dynamics of inflation in the United States. It is believed that central bank members carefully monitor this indicator. According to forecasts, the index will demonstrate contradictory dynamics - it will grow to 0.2% in monthly terms and decrease to 1.6% in annual terms. This release may have an impact on the dynamics of the pair only with strong fluctuations, when the real numbers differ significantly from the forecast values.

US trading floors will be closed on Thursday for the celebration of Thanksgiving in the United States. Therefore, EUR/USD price fluctuations on this day are expected during the European session, when data on the growth of German inflation will be published. It is expected that the consumer price index in Germany will show a negative trend - in monthly terms it will return to the negative area (-0.7%), and in annual terms it will drop to 1%. This release will be the "main rehearsal" before the publication of the pan-European inflation indicator.

We will learn the dynamics of European inflation on Friday. The general consumer price index has been gradually decreasing since June, and in October reached 0.7%. In November, a slight recovery is expected - according to analysts, the figure will rise to the level of 0.8%. Core inflation should also slightly grow - according to experts, the core index will be released in the green zone, at around 1.2%. On the same day, data will be published on the growth of the labor market in the eurozone in October. Positive dynamics is also expected here: the indicator may drop to a record low level of 7.4%.

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In addition to macroeconomic statistics,EUR/USD traders will sharply react to the external fundamental background. Trump is expected to sign the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act in the near future in support of Hong Kong protesters. This step will cause a confrontation with Beijing, amid ongoing trade negotiations. If the prospects of signing the first phase of the US-China agreement are again threatened, the EUR/USD pair will be under strong pressure: this fact may pull down the price under the key support level of 1.0980. On Friday, on the other hand, Trump said in an interview with Fox News that the trade deal with China is "potentially very close." If the external fundamental background improves, the pair may again approach the boundary of the 11th figure - especially if macroeconomic statistics are on the side of the single currency.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 25 - 2019

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EUR/JPY also failed to hold above minor support at 119.91. It indicates that a complex double zig-zag was unfolding similar to blue wave ii. The correction in blue wave ii likely to be complete with the test of 119.62. We need a break above minor resistance at 120.30 to confirm that blue wave ii has completed and blue wave iii is developing higher to 121.98.

Support is now seen at 119.79 and strong support is at 119.62.

R3: 120.64

R2: 120.39

R1: 120.30

Pivot: 120.13

S1: 119.94

S2: 119.79

S3: 119.62

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 117.25 with our stop placed at 119.30. If you are not long EUR yte, then buy a break above 120.30 and use the same stop at 119.30.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 25/11/2019:

Technical Market Overview:

The GBP/USD pair keeps trading inside of the narrow range located between the levels of 1.2765 - 1.3012 and there is no signal for any reversal or any breakout yet. The bulls still seem to be unable to break through the wall of technical resistance levels located from 1.2939 to 1.3012, so the range bounded trading in consolidation continues. The momentum is now negative due to the market coming off the overbought conditions, which will not help the bullish case. The larger timeframe trend remains down.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3071

WR2 - 1.3026

WR1 - 1.2910

Weekly Pivot - 1.2886

WS1 - 1.2750

WS2 - 1.2708

WS3 - 1.2590

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. In order to reverse the trend from down to up, the key level for bulls is seen at 1.3012 and it must be clearly violated. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.2231 - 1.2224 and the key long-term technical resistance is located at the level of 1.3509. As long as the price is trading below this level, the downtrend continues towards the level of 1.1957 and below.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 25/11/2019:

Technical Market Overview:

The EUR/USD pair has failed to rally above the technical resistance located at the level of 1.1091 and broke out of the local consolidation zone. After the breakout, the low was made at the level of 1.1014 as the bears are clearly in control of the market now. The next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.0999 - 1.0991, which is the key technical support for bulls. Please notice, that the negative momentum supports the short-term bearish outlook. The larger time-frame trend remains down.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1143

WR2 - 1.1119

WR1 - 1.1059

Weekly Pivot - 1.1036

WS1 - 1.0979

WS2 - 1.0950

WS3 - 1.0894

Trading Recommendations: The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is terminated or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larget timeframes that indicate a possible downtrend termination soon. The key short-term levels are technical support at the level of 1.0999 and the technical resistance at the level of 1.1267.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for November 25 - 2019

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After breaking below support at 139.65, the correction in red wave iv shifted from a triangle to a double zig-zag correction. This change does not alter our overall bullish picture except prolonging red wave iv. We continue to look for more upside progress through minor resistance at 140.51 and a break above resistance at 140.74. It will confirm that the red wave v towards 144.58 is developing.

Support is now seen at 139.63 and strong support is at 139.30

R3: 140.74

R2: 140.51

R1: 140.02

Pivot: 139.86

S1: 139.63

S2: 1339.46

S3: 139.30

Trading recommendation:

We are long GBP from 140.12 with our stop placed at 139.30

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Forecast for EUR/USD on November 25, 2019

EUR/USD

As expected, the dollar strengthened its position last Friday due to the difference in the performance of the eurozone and US PMI indices. The November Services PMI in the eurozone fell from 52.2 to 51.5, while it increased from 50.6 to 51.6 in the United States. European Manufacturing PMI has grown from 45.9 to 46.6, the US has grown from 51.3 to 52.2. In addition, the consumer confidence index in the US from the University of Michigan in the final assessment for November has increased from 95.7 to 96.8. The euro lost 36 points on Friday.

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On the daily chart, the movement stopped exactly on the MACD line, which fulfilled the first goal of the bears. Accordingly, now we are waiting for the development of the lower target levels: 1.0985 (Fibonacci reaction of 128.2%), 1.0925 (lows of September 3 and 12), 1.0895 (area of the lowest candle bodies on September 30 and October 1).

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On the four-hour chart, the price also reached the MACD line, here support was pierced. But since on both scales the price reached the indicator line at the same time, which strengthened the level (1.1014), we are waiting for a short consolidation above it. After consolidating the price at this level, we look forward to a further decrease in the euro to the designated goals.

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Technical analysis: Important intraday Level For EUR/USD, November 25,2019

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When the European market opens, such economic data as as Belgian NBB Business Climate and German Ifo Business Climate will be published. Today, the US will not release any economic data.So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1078. Strong Resistance: 1.1072. Original Resistance: 1.1061. Inner Sell Area: 1.1050.Target Inner Area: 1.1024. Inner Buy Area: 1.0998. Original Support: 1.0987. Strong Support: 1.0976. Breakout SELL Level: 1.0970. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important intraday Level for USD/JPY, November 25,2019

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Today, Japan and the US will not release any economic data. So, there is a probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Resistance.3:109.35. Resistance. 2:109.15. Resistance. 1:108.94. Support. 1:108.64. Support. 2:108.43. Support. 3:108.23. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for GBP/USD on November 25, 2019

GBP/USD

The British pound fell by more than 70 points on Friday, with more confidence it forms a triple peak on the daily chart. When the price reaches the Fibonacci level of 23.5% at the price of 1.2765, the figure will finally form, and the price fall below the line (1.2765) opens the nearest target of 1.2703, then at 1.2608 (correction level 38.2%). Moreover, consolidating the price to 1.2608 will also mean consolidating below the MACD line, which in turn will create an additional condition for the medium-term fall of the pound from the nearest target of 1.2360 - the green price channel of the higher (weekly) timeframe and the Fibonacci level 61 converge at the 8% mark.

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On a four-hour chart, the price has consolidated below the MACD line, but this morning the reverse consolidation above it took place. Without the Marlin oscillator signal line entering the growth zone, this price jump is considered corrective of the support achieved. With the return price drift under the line, the target opens at 1.2765.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on November 25, 2019

USD/JPY

Last Friday, the dollar managed to close above the enclosed line of the red descending price channel and above the indicator line of the balance. This helped the price to positively continue to grow in the Asian session today. It is likely that the price will be able to reach the control and target level of 109.30, which is a high of October 30. Consolidation above it will allow the price to work out the resistance of the green price channel in the region of 109.90. The signal line of the leading Marlin oscillator is not in a hurry to get ahead of the price, it follows the price exactly and is still located on the territory of the bears, this indicates cautious growth, apparently driven, as it repeats the movement of stock indices. On Friday, the S&P 500 grew by 0.22% after the previous three-day decline. The Nikkei 225 is growing by 0.89% in the Asian session today.

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On a four-hour chart, the price has consolidated above both indicator lines - the balance and MACD lines. The Marlin oscillator in the growth zone. We are waiting for the price at the nearest target of 109.30.

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GBP/USD approaching resistance, potential drop!

Price is approaching our first resistance a 1.28722 where we are expecting a drop to our first support level at 1.27697.

Entry: 1.28722

23.6% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap resistance

Take Profit : 1.27697

Why it's good : horizontal swing low support

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Bounce on USD/CAD

USDCAD to bounce above support at 1.32680

Entry: 1.32680

50.0% Fibonacci Retracement

Take Profit : 1.33550

Why it's good : 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement, 100% Fibonacci Extension

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USD/CHF to drop from 1st resistance, potential drop!

Entry: 0.9983

Why it's good: Horizontal swing high resistance

78.6% Fibonacci extension

76.4% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 0.9875

Why it's good : 100% Fibonacci extension

Horizontal swing low support

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EUR/USD. The trade war between the United States and China may end in armed conflict

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As the trade conflict between the United States and China continues, during which the parties regularly declare "progress in the negotiations,'' more and more stumbling blocks arise in the negotiations. Recall that initially, in the first months of the conflict, Donald Trump accused China of a whole series of "crimes against America," among which the theft of intellectual property and unfair trade policies between countries, after which he introduced duties on a number of Chinese imports. From this moment, a series of introduction of duties by both parties began. It is worth noting that constantly until the present moment, the parties actively participated in the negotiation process, but they could not agree on anything. We note that the 13th round of negotiations has recently ended with exactly the same successes as the previous 12. The parties obviously do not want to make concessions, with each of the countries having its own version of the trade war, none of which clearly implies its speedy conclusion . China, obviously, does not want to sign an agreement that is beneficial for the United States and not advantageous for itself. It does not want to specify a particular amount for which it annually undertakes to purchase agricultural products in America the "first phase" of the agreement, and it is also not afraid of slowing its economic growth and slowing down GDP growth. It can also be assumed that Beijing is ready to wait until next November for a possible change in the president, since it is precisely because of the trade war with China that Trump may not be re-elected for a second term, believing that it will be much easier to agree with the next president. America, which, in fact, started this war can not back down and accept China's conditions, it is Trump who needs to end the trade war as soon as possible in order to regain popularity among the population, but he cannot end this conflict without victory. Thus, Donald Trump actively and regularly through the media declares that it is China that needs a trade deal with America and that Beijing needs to rush into its conclusion, otherwise new economic sanctions and duties will be introduced against it.

Realizing that Beijing was ready to wait a long enough amount of time, and taking advantage of the turmoil in Hong Kong, Washington began to put new pressure on China. The US Senate passed a bill on human rights in Hong Kong, which implies that the area may lose a huge number of preferences in relations with America if it loses its autonomous status. Loses not only on paper, but in real life. The story began with the fact that China set out to pass a law on the extradition of any Hong Kong citizen, which, in the opinion of the United States, is a deprivation of autonomy. Moreover, Washington opposes the containment by the Chinese side of the riots in Hong Kong, which emerged because of the extradition law. China immediately accused the United States of interfering in China's domestic policy and demanded that Trump veto the Senate's decision. However, firstly, Trump's decision is still unknown, and secondly, for America, this situation is a new advantage in negotiations with China. All that remains now is to understand whether Beijing will continue to resist and the trade conflict will continue to blaze or whether it will begin to fulfill Trump's will.

Meanwhile, former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger said the trade war could end in a global armed battle that would be worse than World War I. According to Kissinger, a hundred years ago, Great Britain wanted to restrain the growing strength of Germany, but now Washington is trying to restrain growing China. "At the moment, we can observe the struggle of civilizations of the West and the East, and the trade war is just one of the tools of counteraction," Kissinger said. In addition, the former secretary of state adds that, "a hundred years ago, weapons were relatively weak, but now the destruction and consequences of the conflict can be catastrophic, so wars should be avoided by any means."

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GBP/USD. What awaits the UK and the pound if Brexit is implemented?

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Macroeconomic statistics from the UK over the past two weeks, as well as the results of the meeting of the British regulator, clearly and distinctly showed that the economic situation in the country is deteriorating, the economy is slowing down and needs to be stimulated. The British regulator has not yet lowered its key rate, although, in our opinion, it already had sufficient reasons to do so. However, here you need to understand that Mark Carney and the rest of the monetary committee clearly wanted to save such a serious tool of influence on the British economy in the end, at the moment when the issue with Brexit will be resolved. Unfortunately, Brexit was once again postponed, and the state of the economy continued to deteriorate. That is why, without waiting for the exit from the European Union, the Bank of England can still take such a step as lowering the key rate by 0.25%. However, given the rather serious slowdown, we believe that even such measures will not be enough to stop the decline in growth rates.

We have repeatedly said that the British economy, together with the pound, has been in a fever for the past three years, but in fact, Brexit has not even taken place. We have repeatedly wondered, what will happen to the UK economy after leaving the EU, if the economic recession is so serious now? It is clear that the economies of many countries of the world are experiencing problems due to the slowdown in global economic growth caused by the China-US trade conflict. But in Britain's case, these global problems are also multiplied by the consequences of a "divorce" with the European Union.

The key question for Britain, if it does leave the EU, what will its foreign trade policy be like? In which sectors of the economy and trade will it draw closer to the European Union, America, or the rest of the world? How long will the UK not have any trade deals and negotiations with all trading partners continue? Indeed, now we see that negotiations on the China-US trade agreement have been going on for more than a year, and "things are still there." Currently, the United States remains the largest source of investment for the UK, as well as the largest trading partner. Given the friendship between Boris Johnson and Donald Trump, it is really not surprising that the UK wants to further build relations primarily with America. However, it is now absolutely obvious that America wants to conclude a trade deal with Britain if it does not have similar deals with the European Union. That is, in fact, London will have to choose with whom to trade fully and with whom not. In addition, you should be aware that if negotiations are conducted with the Trump administration, it is unlikely that the trade deal will be beneficial to the UK. First of all, it will be beneficial to Washington, or negotiations will continue for several years.

At the moment, it seems that countries are indeed moving towards each other, but in practice this trade agreement may never happen. Firstly, Donald Trump will have a year of presidency, elections will be held next November and the likelihood that Trump will remain at his post is extremely small. Secondly, parliamentary elections in the UK. If the Conservatives do not win a landslide victory, then they will not have enough votes to implement Brexit according to Johnson, which will delay the Brexit procedure for several months, or even years. It should also be understood that the longer Johnson cannot realize his exit from the EU, the greater the likelihood that he will leave his post ahead of schedule, just like Theresa May. Thus, from our point of view, the situation can radically change several more times, and the UK may even remain in the European Union if, for example, the Labour Party comes to power. Thus, we believe that in any case, the economic situation in Great Britain will deteriorate, and with it all macroeconomic indicators and the pound will fall. Even if Brexit is in a deal, after the initial bullish euphoria, the economic plan will again come to the fore, which will pull down the pound further.

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