Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for November 7 - 2019

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Today we would like to show an alternate count we are looking for in the red wave iv. The correction in red wave iv is close to completion. It will likely complete above 138.87 for a strong rally to at least 144.58 in red wave v. This will likely complete wave iii and set the stage for another sideways correction in wave iv.

As wave ii was a deep zig-zag correction, we should expect a shallow sideways correction in wave iv, but it could be later.

In the short-term, a break above minor resistance at 140.12 will indicate the completion of red wave iv and the development of red wave v towards 144.58.

R3: 140.74

R2: 140.57

R1: 140.12

Pivot: 139.91

S1: 139.58

S2: 139.27

S3: 138.87

Trading recommendation:

We will buy GBP at 139.45 or upon a break above 140.12

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 7 - 2019

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The correction in red wave ii is now in its final stages and could bottom out anytime for the next impulsive rally towards 123.59 and higher in the long-term. The correction in red wave ii could still reach our ideal target at 119.87 before completing and starting to move higher again.

in the short-term, a break above minor resistance at 120.64 will be the first strong indication that red wave ii has completed and the rally towards 123.59 is developing.

R3: 120.93

R2: 120.64

R1: 120.47

Pivot: 120.32

S1: 120.19

S2: 119.87

S3: 119.70

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 117.25 with our stop placed at 119.00. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 119.87 and use the same stop at 119.00

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 07/11/2019

Technical Overview:

The EUR/USD pair has tested the technical support located at the level of 1.1072 and then bounced slightly. The bounce itself was too weak and the bears have used this situation to push harder on bulls. Eventually, the price has returned to the level of 1.1072 and broke through it. The new local low was made at the level of 1.1055. The momentum is weak and negative, so the next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.1024 and 1.0999.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1310

WR2 - 1.1242

WR1 - 1.1209

Weekly Pivot - 1.1144

WS1 - 1.1116

WS2 - 1.1042

WS3 - 1.1010

Trading recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is terminated or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larget timeframes that indicate a possible downtrend termination soon. The key short-term levels are technical support at the level of 1.0999 and the technical resistance at the level of 1.1267.

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Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 11/07/2019 and trading recommendation

As soon as it became clear that the resolution of the issue with Brexit was postponed for another three months, and the UK entered early elections, immediately, contemplation of the pound schedule became one of the most boring activities in the world. Virtually nothing happens. The sluggish and dull, almost invisible downward movement is strictly in the logic of the disparity in interest rates, since the Federal Reserve has a higher refinancing rate than the Bank of England. One should also note such a point as the fact that since the date of the early parliamentary elections was set, no serious macroeconomic data for the UK have been published. On the other hand, the pound was in no hurry to respond to US data. However, this cannot go on forever.

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A meeting of the Board of the BoE on monetary policy will take place today, the results of which can bring some kind of diversity to the dull picture. To some extent, the BoE can now be called the most stable central bank in the world, except for the Bank of Japan. After all, Mark Carney has repeatedly stated that until the Brexit story ends, all the parameters of the monetary policy pursued by the BoE will remain unchanged. So no one has any doubt that today everything will remain as before. It is not strange, but in the current conditions this can provide support to the pound, since amid the actions of the Fed and the European Central Bank, to mitigate its monetary policies, the stability of the BoE looks good. It's another matter that the support will not be long, as the BoE's actions are completely predictable, and no one will cancel some uncertainty regarding the Parliamentary elections.

Bank of England Refinancing Rate (UK):

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GBP/USD has been acting extremely sluggish for quite some time, but it's worth paying tribute to, the development of the control level of 1.3000 was successful and we gradually went down. So, in terms of volatility, there is a literal trouble, its average value is 65 points, which is expressed in narrow but consistent moves on the market. Considering the trading chart in general terms, we see all the same movement between the key levels of 1.2770/1.3000, which has stayed on the market for three weeks already. A breakdown of these values could give a new wave of emotion as a fact of volatility, but so far we have what we have. It is likely to assume that a sluggish downward interest will still remain in the market towards the level of 1.2770. At the same time, at the time of the outcome of the meeting of the Bank of England, a local upward interest could theoretically occur, but it will probably occur in the pullback phase.

Concretizing all of the above into trading signals:

- Long positions, we consider in case of price consolidation higher than 1.2865.

- We consider short positions in case of price consolidation lower than 1.2835.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that only in terms of minute intervals there is a variable upward interest in the stagnation phase. In the remaining time periods, a downward mood remains.

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Overview of GBP/USD on November 7th. Forecast according to the "Regression Channels". Traders do not expect anything interesting

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The upper channel of linear regression: direction – upward.

The lower channel of linear regression: direction – upward.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – sideways.

CCI: -137.1681

The British pound paired with the US currency continues to show weak volatility for itself and a weak downward movement. Still, the technical picture of the pair looks as if there is no trend, but there is a flat. Thus, trading the pair now is not entirely appropriate. Nevertheless, a certain part of traders remains in the market, respectively, counts on something. During yesterday, no macroeconomic report was published, which would concern the GBP/USD pair. In the UK, fundamental calm generally continues. The UK Parliament, from where the news constantly came, has been dissolved and now traders will witness interesting information about the preparation of different parties for the elections on December 12, about various opinion polls designed to find out which party has the best chance of winning, and so on. However, all this information will not make any difference to the British currency and its traders. The most interesting thing is those market participants have not too much reaction to American statistics. Today, finally, there will be an event that can significantly affect the movement of the currency pair. It could. However, for some reason, it seems that today we are waiting for sluggish and boring trades. Why so? Because the meeting of the Bank of England promises to be completely passable. Let's try to remember the last time the British regulator changed the parameters of monetary policy? A long time ago. When was the last time the views of members of the monetary committee on changes in the key rate differed? A long time ago. When was the last time we were surprised by Mark Carney's rhetoric and commentary? At least a year ago, when his fears about the impact of the "hard" Brexit on the UK economy were still taken into account by traders. What is expected today? Changes in monetary policy – no. Change in the balance of votes among members of the monetary committee – no. Even Mark Carney's speech, which could potentially mean important new information, isn't either, since what can the head of the Bank of England say if he has nothing to react to now? Brexit is again in limbo. The country has entered the phase of regular parliamentary elections. It makes no sense to save the pound now. Thus, we believe that nothing interesting will happen at the meeting of the regulator today, and the surge in volatility, if it happens, it will be short-lived and not strong. The only thing the Bank of England can do is lower its economic forecasts for 2019 and 2020.

Thus, the British pound will remain in limbo and continue to wait for the market to return to the majority of traders who took a break after working on the ascent of the pair by 800 points up. Theoretically, such a lull can persist at least until December 12. The factors that would ensure further growth of the British pound is not even theoretical. And traders are in no hurry to sell the British currency, although, from our point of view, this is what they should be doing now. Thus, from our point of view, the pound now has two ways – either sideways or down. From a technical point of view, the bulls failed twice to overcome the area of 1.2970 – 1.3000, which also speaks in favor of a possible decline in the currency pair. Both channels of linear regression are directed upwards, but the moving average line is directed sideways, and the price is below it. And as we know, it is with the overcoming of the moving that the formation of a new trend begins.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2848

S2 – 1.2817

S3 – 1.2787

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2878

R2 – 1.2909

R3 – 1.2939

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair has settled below the moving average line, but what is happening in the market now still falls under the definition of "flat". Formally, traders can consider selling the pound with targets of 1.2817, 1.2787, and 1.2756. However, we would not recommend doing this in large volumes, as both trend channels of linear regression remain directed upwards, and the volatility of the pair is now quite low. However, it is more preferable to the downward movement of the pair in the coming days.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of the illustrations:

The upper channel of linear regression – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower channel of linear regression – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the regression window of the indicator.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – blue line on the price chart.

Support and resistance – red horizontal lines.

Heiken Ashi – an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

Possible variants of the price movement:

Red and green arrows.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on November 7, 2019, on the GBP / USD currency pair.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Thursday, the price will move up, with the target at 1.2976 - the upper fractal, or a downward movement with the target at 1.2792 - 21 average EMA. The direction of movement will depend on the news.

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - down;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Thursday, the price, according to the technique, can continue to move up.

The price will move up with the target at 1.2976 - the upper fractal, or a downward movement with the target at 1.2792 - 21 average EMA. The direction of movement will depend on the news.

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Analysis of EUR / USD and GBP / USD for November 7. US dollar: towards new heights?

EUR / USD

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November 6 ended for the pair EUR / USD with a decrease of another 10 basis points. Thus, the alleged first wave of the new downward trend continues its construction and has already gone beyond the minimum of the expected wave b, which indirectly indicates the willingness of the markets to further reduce quotes. If the current wave marking is correct, then the decline will continue at least to the area of the 9th figure.

Fundamental component:

On Wednesday, the news background for the euro-dollar instrument was extremely weak. For the whole day, markets could pay attention only to far from the most important reports from the eurozone, such as business activity in the service sector. In Italy, France, Germany and Spain, business activity in this area increased compared to the previous month. This is good news for the euro and for the EU economy as a whole. However, the European currency was still not in demand on November 6, so the effect of positive news from the EU turned out to be zero. Today, the situation for the instrument will be even less interesting, since nothing but industrial production in the EU is contained in the news calendar today. Even if the production report is better than the expectations of the market (that is, the reduction will be less than 2.9% y / y),

Purchase goals:

1.1208 - 61.8% Fibonacci

1.1286 - 76.4% Fibonacci

Sales goals:

1.0879 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and recommendations:

The euro-dollar pair allegedly completed the construction of the upward trend correction section. Since the attempt to break through the minimum of wave b turned out to be successful, I now recommend paying attention to the sale of the instrument with goals under the 10 figure. The instrument probably moved on to building a bearish trend section.

GBP / USD

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On November 6, the GBP / USD pair lost about 30 basis points, which is fully consistent with the current wave marking, which suggests a further decrease in the instrument within the framework of the expected wave c. If this is true, then the minimum targets of this wave are located around 28th figure. A possible continuation of the increase in the pound-dollar pair will depend on the news background, which is currently absent. In any case, to determine the desire of the markets to buy the pound again, I recommend waiting for a successful attempt to break through the 127.2% Fibonacci level.

Fundamental component:

Yesterday, In the UK, no economic reports came out. From the Parliament, for obvious reasons, no messages were received either. Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn "exchanged pleasantries" in the framework of the election campaign, which do not give traders any special food for thought. The only more or less significant news was the statement by an unknown British official that the country would not ask for an extension of the transition period that would begin after the Brexit agreement began to operate. However, we already heard something like this from Boris Johnson, when he stated that he would not ask the EU to postpone Brexit. Today, markets will follow the results of the meeting of the British Central Bank. However, no changes to monetary policy will be made this time. That is, the probability that the Bank of England will leave everything as is, 100%. In light of this information, more attention will be paid to the speech of the Chairman of the Bank, Mark Carney. The key question, of course, is when the Central Bank plans to lower or raise the key rate. However, the answer to this question is obvious, and, most likely, Carney will voice it: until the situation with Brexit is clarified, the Central Bank will not make any changes.

Sales goals:

1.2191 - 0.0% Fibonacci

Purchase goals:

1.2986 - 127.2% Fibonacci

1.3202 - 161.8% Fibonacci

General conclusions and recommendations:

The pound / dollar instrument supposedly completed the construction of the upward trend section. Thus, only a successful attempt to break through the level of 1.2986 can be regarded as a complication of the alleged wave 3 or C and become the basis for new purchases of the instrument. Now, I recommend looking in the direction of sales after a successful attempt to break through the level of 1.2812 (100.0% Fibonacci).

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Overview of EUR/USD on November 7th. Forecast according to the "Regression Channels". Two chances of strengthening for the

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The upper channel of linear regression: direction – sideways.

The lower channel of linear regression: direction – upward.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – down.

CCI: -123.6285

The third trading day of the week ended for the EUR/USD pair again with a decline, albeit a small one. As we mentioned earlier, the pair with a high degree of probability switched to the formation of a new downward trend, so we expect a continued downward movement in almost any case. The macroeconomic statistics of the past day were reduced to the indices of business activity (in the service sector and composite) in the European Union and some countries of the eurozone. Surprisingly, the most significant indices of business activity, in Germany and the EU, exceeded their forecast values. Moreover, none of the indices in the service sector slipped below the key level of 50.0. Thus, business activity in the services sector of the EU countries remains afloat, which cannot but rejoice. It cannot but please anyone, but not traders who simply ignored this information. Yes, business activity indices are not the most significant indicators, however, they could be counted on as a help.

Thus, at the moment, the scenario that we described a few days ago is coming true – the formation of a downward trend based on the general negative for the euro fundamental background and technical signals (three rebounds from the Murray level of "7/8"). On Thursday, November 7, a change in industrial production for September will be published in Germany (a decrease of 2.9% y/y is expected), in the States – the number of applications for unemployment benefits, and all the attention of traders will be focused on the UK and the British pound, as today will be a meeting of the Bank of England, summing up its results and the speech of the head of the regulator Mark Carney. As you can see, today there will be little macroeconomic data for the euro/dollar pair and all of them will be, as often happens in recent years, interesting, but insignificant. What, for example, will the next reduction in industrial production in Germany say? The fact that the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector perfectly warns traders of the decline in this area. The fact that the largest economy of the European Union, its locomotive, is experiencing serious problems, despite the budget surplus, despite the falling inflation. The fact that optimistic information can also not be expected from industrial production in the whole eurozone. But the reaction to such an indicator as industrial production in Germany is unlikely to follow from traders.

What is the result? As a result, we believe that the euro will continue its downward movement. In the coming weeks, it may fall again to the lows for two years. The problem is that all the economic problems of the European Union remain. The problem is that if Trump starts a trade war with the European Union (and there are such plans), it will mean an even greater decline in all indicators in the EU. The problem is that the deposit rate is already negative in the EU, and the loan rate – zero. The problem is that the quantitative easing program has started to work again, and the effect from it is still zero. The problem is that the United States also have their problems, but the US government and the Fed are coping with them, and the negative effects are not visible as in the European Union. If Trump does manage to sign a trade agreement with China, it will mean a potential increase in economic indicators in both the US and China. But we are more interested in the States and their impact on the EUR/USD currency pair. And the impact will be simple: economic statistics will begin to improve again, which will cause new purchases of the US currency and, accordingly, its growth in the world currency markets. And the Fed will stop easing monetary policy, as this will not be necessary. For the euro, all hopes of growth still lie overseas. The first is that America should be in a state of a trade war with China as long as possible, and at the same time not start a similar war with the EU. The second is for the Fed to continue to cut the key rate, as Donald Trump wants it.

From a technical point of view, the Heiken Ashi indicator continues to color the bars blue, which signals an intraday downward movement. Thus, the trend for the pair is now downward, therefore, trading should be lower.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1047

S2 – 1.0986

S3 – 1.0925

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1108

R2 – 1.1169

R3 – 1.1230

Trading recommendations:

The euro/dollar pair overcame the moving, overcame the Murray level of "6/8". Thus, it is now recommended to sell the euro currency with the nearest target of 1.1047. If it is overcome, it will be possible to buy the dollar with the target of 1.0986. It is not recommended to return to the pair's purchases now, there are no fundamental or technical reasons for this.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of the illustrations:

The upper channel of linear regression – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower channel of linear regression – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – the blue line on the price chart.

Support and resistance – red horizontal lines.

Heiken Ashi – an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

Possible variants of the price movement:

Red and green arrows.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on November 7, 2019, on the EUR / USD currency pair.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Thursday, the market may try to retrace upwards from the pullback level of 38.2% - 1.1066 (red dotted line). If successful, the first upper target 1.1085 is the resistance line (red bold line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - down;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - down;

- Weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

On Thursday, a retreat upward movement is possible.

From the pullback level, 38.2% - 1.1066 (red dotted line) goes up into the pullback. If successful, the next target 1.1147 is a pullback level of 50.0% (blue dashed line).

In the case of the lower scenario - a downward movement with a target of 1.1030 - a pullback level of 50.0% (red dashed line).

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AUD and NZD are ready to resume the fall

Reports about the possibility of postponing the signing of a trade agreement between the United States and China have contributed to the departure of markets in the lateral range. Volatility decreased, stock indices changed within 0.5%, with the exception of the Australian S & P / ASX 200 and New Zealand's NZDOW, which grew by more than 1% at the end of the RBA meeting.

NZD/USD

The outlook for New Zealand's economy continues to deteriorate. RBNZ lowered its forecast of business optimism to -42.4 p, the lowest since March 2008, while ANZ notes a decrease in business activity deep in the negative territory to -3.5% in October against -1.8% a month earlier. On the other hand, unemployment resumed growth, in Q3 from 3.9% to 4.2%. Thus, the forecast for the RBNZ rate is deteriorating.

In addition, the RBNZ traditionally reduced the rate during periods of crisis, however, it was repeatedly emphasized in the last quarter that the reason for the reduction was not the crisis, but an attempt to stimulate spending and revitalize activity. There is no result, and RBNZ comments have already appeared on the possibility of using negative rates and other unconventional policy methods.

After the September meeting, the RBNZ issued an unexpectedly "hawkish" comment, but it had a very short impact on the markets. The expectations are that even a reduction in the Fed rate will not lead to a reduction in the spread of returns, since the RBNZ will reduce the rate even more aggressively.

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The markets are forming a stable opinion that the RBNZ intends to hold another 3 rate cuts, the nearest of which will be in November, and by May 2020 - bring it to 0.25%. Accordingly, the yield on 10-year bonds tested below 1%. The slowdown in global economic growth will continue to put pressure on yields, so the spread between bonds of New Zealand and the USA will continue to increase, which also gives the direction of the movement of the NZD/USD.

Stable prices for raw materials somewhat compensate for this pressure, but the threat of a decline in kiwi is growing, which will be facilitated by the situation on global markets. The next RBNZ meeting will be held on November 13. On the other hand, the resistance zone 0.6330 / 50 has stood, and there is a high probability that the downward movement will continue. The immediate goal is 0.6331, the next is 0.6295 and further 0.6199. The prospect of moving to a psychological level of 0.6 i also growing.

AUD/USD

The Reserve Bank of Australia did not find any reason to reduce the rate at the meeting that ended on Tuesday, which was in line with market expectations and did not lead to an increase in Aussie. The expectation of the market include another rate cut in February, and the RBA is expected to consider not only a rate cut to 0.5% as a way to revive the economy, but also unconventional measures, such as an asset buyback program.

Since 2009 to 2016, leading Central Banks launched a total of 18 asset purchase programs, and only a third of them were directed only to government securities. The RBA may announce preparations for a similar program in February, along with a cut in rates. Therefore, markets will begin preparations for this large-scale event, which will put pressure on the Australian in the coming months.

Macroeconomic indicators still look weak. AiGroup Inflation Study indicates no positive change, Q3 inflation grew by only 0.5%, which corresponds to 1.7% y / y, while the price level remains below the RBA target.

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Moreover, core inflation is 1.4% y / y, and is consistent with the overall weakness of the Australian economy. PMI in the services sector came close to the level of reduction, falling in October to 50.1p, while PMI in the construction sector declined to 43.9p., I.e. the sector has been declining for 12 months now.

The prospects for the yield spread between the bonds of Australia and the United States look the same as for New Zealand, and therefore, the pressure on the Aussie resumes. The upward trend, formed from the low of October 2, is coming to an end. Now, resistance zone 0.6323 / 29 corresponds to the upper boundary of the long-term channel, however, the chances of renewal are low. Thus, it is likely that the peak has already formed and the Aussie begins to fall in order to test a minimum of 0.6669. The nearest target is 0.6810 / 25, its fall can significantly accelerate the decline.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on November 7. Predictions of the Bank of England may lead to a decline in the pound

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

Today, much will depend on the forecasts of the Bank of England on the economy and inflation. Most likely the rate will remain unchanged, but expectations will be reviewed for the worse. Therefore, I do not recommend that you hurry with making pound purchases so far. The best option before the decision of the Bank of England would be to open long positions after updating support at 1.2807, with the condition of the formation of a false breakout there. Buying the pound immediately for a rebound is best done from the 1.2735 area. The bulls' task for the first half of the day will be to return to the resistance level of 1.2845, from which it will be possible to build a larger upward correction in the area of highs of 1.2880 and 1.2913, where I recommend profit taking.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

The first signal to open short positions on the pound will be the formation of a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.2845, but a more important task will be to update the support of 1.2807, on which a lot depends. A breakthrough of this range can only occur after the publication of negative forecasts by the Bank of England on inflation and the UK economy, which will lead to the closure of a number of long positions in the pound and its decline to the low of 1.2735 and 1.2664, where I recommend profit taking. If sellers miss the resistance of 1.2845 in the morning, then it is best to count on sales after updating the high of 1.2880, subject to a false breakout, or immediately on a rebound from a large resistance at 1.2913, the update of which will indicate the formation of a new rising wave in GBP/USD.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a possible decline in the pound in the short term.

Bollinger bands

A break of the lower boundary of the indicator at 1.2828 will increase pressure on the pound. Growth will be limited by the upper level of the indicator at 1.2890.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Technical analysis recommendations for EUR / USD and GBP / USD on November 7

Economic calendar (Universal time)

The economic calendar of the current day could be called quite calm if it were not for the accumulation of decisions, votes, reports and indicators for the UK, which appear on the calendar as a solid red front in the interval 12:00 - 12:30. The pound has been restrained from any significant movements for a long time. Thus, the market seems to be waiting for a favorable moment, and this moment today, judging by the news background, can be provided.

EUR / USD

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Lower players are trying to continue to decline, but yesterday, they did not succeed in achieving a good result. There are too many supports and too little strength and activity on the part of the bears in the current situation. Therefore, it is highly likely that the current support 1.1082-65 (daily Senkou Span B + daily Kijun + weekly Fibo Kijun) will form a rebound. As a result of which the short-term daily trend (1.1115) will be the nearest resistance, and then the interests of the players to increase will return to 1.1145-64 (weekly Kijun + monthly Tenkan). If the pair continues to decline, then on the way for the players to fall today, two significant milestones can be noted: 1.1030 (target for breakdown of the H4 cloud + daily Fibo Kijun + weekly Tenkan) and 1.0984 (lower boundary of the weekly cloud).

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At lower time intervals, lower players currently retain the advantage. Support is reached 1.1056 (S1), then 1.1047 (S2) and 1.1028 (S3) can enter the work. In case of consolidation above 1.1075 (central pivot level), we can expect the development of an upward correction and the formation of rebound from the met supports of different halves. The classic pivot levels (1.1084 - 1.1103 - 1.1112) will serve as an intermediate resistance rise, but the weekly long-term trend, which is now located at 1.1125, will be the main reference point.

GBP / USD

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On the daily timeframe, the pair managed to go down under the key support of this section 1.2882 (daily short-term trend + monthly Fibo Kijun). Consolidation and confirmation of the breakdown can serve as a catalyst for the continuation of active decline. The key support area continues to maintain its location 1.2700 - 1.2600 (daily Fibo Kijun and Kijun + monthly Tenkan + weekly Tenkan and Fibo Kijun). The return of the daily short-term trend to the side of the bulls in this situation will return uncertainty and may provoke new activity of players to increase, the main task of which will be to update the highs and break the weekly cloud (1.3015).

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Yesterday, the resistance of the central pivot level managed to restrain the development of a correctional upswing again. Therefore, lower players retained the advantage and continued to decline. Today, bearish reference points within the day may be the support of the classic pivot levels - 1.2833 - 1.2812 - 1.2780. Consolidation above the central pivot level (1.2865) will most likely serve the formation of an upward correction. In this case, the main reference point will be the weekly long-term trend (1.2907).

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52), Pivot Points (classic), Moving Average (120)

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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on November 7. Pressure on the euro will return after the breakout of support at 1.1050

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Yesterday's reports on the services sector of the eurozone countries provided some support for the European currency, but this did not lead to a major upward correction. Today, the estimate is back to the support level of 1.1050 and only the formation of a false breakout on it will be the first signal to open long positions in the expectation of a return to the resistance of 1.1078. The data on the volume of industrial production in Germany, the output of which is planned at the beginning of the European session, can help in this. However, it will be possible to count on a larger upward correction only after the growth and consolidation of EUR/USD above the level of 1.1078, which will lead to the renewal of the highs of 1.1100 and 1.1129, where I recommend profit taking. In the absence of demand for the euro in the region of a low of 1.1050, it is best to count on new long positions on a rebound from support of 1.1026 and 1.0994.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Yesterday, the bears managed to return the pair to the support level of 1.1078, which was lost in the morning. The primary task of sellers of European currency today is to break through and consolidate below the support of 1.1050, to which they have come close at Asian trading. Only after this we can expect a further downward trend of EUR/USD to the area of lows 1.1026 and 1.0994, where I recommend profit taking. Demand may return in the event of a good report on Germany and forecasts of the European Commission. In this scenario, short positions can be considered after the formation of a false breakout in the area of yesterday's resistance at 1.1078, or then sell immediately for a rebound only after a test of the highs 1.1100 and 1.1129.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a bearish nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

In case of growth, the upper boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.1090 will act as resistance. In case of decrease, support will be provided by the lower boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.1050.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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EURUSD. Euro loses to the dollar despite growth in industrial orders in Germany

The euro-dollar pair is gradually sliding to the bottom of the 10th figure, amid the strengthening of the US currency throughout the market. The dollar index has been growing for several days in a row, with the clear intention of returning to 98 points. The general risk appetite, the restrained position of the Federal Reserve members, as well as the positive rumors surrounding the US-China dialogue puts pressure on the EUR/USD pair. Even encouraging statistics from Germany are not able to turn the tide, despite the impressive growth in industrial orders in this country.

Meanwhile, this release is important for the eurozone. The German manufacturing sector was a kind of an anchor for the German economy: other industries showed positive dynamics, but weak industrial production indicators offset this support. In other words, this sector was pulling the "locomotive of the European economy" to the bottom, having a negative impact not only on national indicators, but also pan-European ones.

Therefore, a significant (and unexpected) increase in production orders in Germany may signal a recovery in the German economy, especially in light of relatively good data on the growth of the eurozone GDP in the third quarter (0.2% QOQ with a forecast of 0.1 QOQ and 1.1% QOQ with a forecast of 1.1% QOQ). So, the German indicator in September (in monthly terms) jumped immediately by 1.3% with a modest growth forecast of only 0.1%. It is worth noting here that in July and August this indicator, which is a leading indicator of the dynamics of industrial production, was in the negative area.

However, the European currency paired with the dollar actually ignored this release. Firstly, due to the rally of the UScurrency, and secondly, due to a decrease in another German indicator - the indicator of production shipments. It decreased by 1.3% on a monthly basis, and according to some analysts, this may indicate a decrease in the level of industrial production in Germany, the corresponding report on which will be published today. If this indicator is in the negative zone, then yesterday's release will lose its relevance in the context of the impact on the euro. According to the consensus forecast, industrial production in Germany will decrease by 0.3%, although according to some experts, the decline will be more significant (-1.1%). But if, contrary to forecasts, the indicator demonstrates growth (at least minimal), the euro is unlikely to ignore this fact, especially against the background of a half-empty economic calendar.

But in general, the general hegemony of the US dollar does not allow the EUR/USD bulls to return to their previous positions: in order to claim the assault on the 12th figure again, buyers need to at least gain a foothold above the 1.1120 mark (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, coinciding with the Tenkan- line sen on the daily chart). Whereas today the pair is trading at a different price niche (1,1120-1,1010), gradually decreasing to the lower boundary of the indicated band. As mentioned above, the dollar enjoys support from both the Fed members and signals from the external fundamental background.

It is necessary to recall here that following the results of the October meeting of the Fed, the regulator actually suspended the cycle of reducing the interest rate, but did not rule out further easing of monetary policy at the beginning of next year. In turn, Jerome powell ruled out an increase in rates in the foreseeable future. He said that the regulator would not even think about it until a steady and sufficiently significant increase in inflation was recorded. Earlier, at the September meeting, when the Fed also cut interest rates by 25 basis points, a split occurred among Fed members. The dot plot of the Fed members' expectations indicated that seven Fed officials spoke about the feasibility of further steps to mitigate monetary policy, while five of their colleagues advocated maintaining a wait-and-see attitude. Another five members of the Fed did not rule out an increase in rates by 25 points.

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Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels For EUR/USD, November 07, 2019

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as French 10-y Bond Auction, Spanish 10-y Bond Auction, Italian Retail Sales m/m, and German Industrial Production m/m. The US will also publish the economic data such as Consumer Credit m/m, 30-y Bond Auction, Natural Gas Storage, and Unemployment Claims, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1123. Strong Resistance: 1.1117. Original Resistance: 1.1106. Inner Sell Area: 1.1095. Target Inner Area: 1.1069. Inner Buy Area: 1.1043. Original Support: 1.1032. Strong Support: 1.1021. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1015. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels for USD/JPY, November 07, 2019

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In Asia, Japan will release the 10-y Bond Auction and the US will publish some economic data such as Consumer Credit m/m, 30-y Bond Auction, Natural Gas Storage, and Unemployment Claims. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance. 3: 109.33. Resistance. 2: 109.13. Resistance. 1: 108.91. Support. 1: 108.65. Support. 2: 108.44. Support. 3: 108.22. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on November 7, 2019

EUR/USD

On Wednesday, the euro adjusted slightly with the release of good data on the growth of industrial orders in Germany in September, showing 1.3% versus the expected 0.1%, but in the evening the general market interest in dollar purchases gained the upper hand and the euro closed the day with a decrease of 8 points. The Marlin oscillator has fixed itself below the boundary with the decline territory, and now the price can be expected on the support of the MACD line 1.1027. Overcoming the support opens the 1.0985 target - the Fibonacci level of 138.2%.

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The price is developing quite calmly under the indicator lines on the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is a bit discharged from the oversold zone and is ready for a further decline.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on November 7, 2019

GBP/USD

The British pound fell by 27 points yesterday. This morning, the price is trying to push the signal level of 1.2840, after which the nearest target at 1.2748 will open. Simultaneously, as the price touches the signal level, the Marlin oscillator line goes into the negative trend zone. The signal receives additional amplification. The lower target levels can be taken sequentially: 1.2748 (October 17 low), 1.2703 (October 11 high), 1.2650 (October 14 high).

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Investors do not expect any interesting news from today's meeting of the Bank of England in terms of monetary policy, respectively, increased attention will be paid to the economic forecasts of the central bank, and they, based on their latest economic data, can be if not lowered, then held in a dim light.

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The price is moving away from the balance indicator line on the four-hour chart, strengthening the downward trend. The Marlin Oscillator is stable in the negative zone. We look forward to the further development of the downward movement.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on November 7, 2019

USD/JPY

After consolidating the price over the red line of the price channel, it (today in the Asian session) returns under it again. Accordingly, this upward exit is interpreted as false and the direction of the price will be downward, the immediate goal is to support the trend line in the region of 107.83. A divergence has formed on the Marlin oscillator.

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The stock market was the main source of pressure on the pair. Yesterday, the S&P 500 grew by only 0.07%, the Dow Jones closed the session unchanged, Nasdaq fell 0.29%, while Russell 2000 -0.67%. The Japanese Nikkei 225 index in the Asian session lost 0.22%. It is very possible that the stock market will decline in the medium term, since, according to consulting companies, the investments of major investors in shares decreased by 25% in the third quarter. It is also reported that this situation was seen in the fourth quarter of 2007. Two goals are outlined for the USD/JPY pair: 107.83 and 107.45 below it.

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The price has gone below the MACD line on the four-hour chart and is preparing to overcome the balance line, which it will most likely succeed, since the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is already in the territory of the bears.

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Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs for November 7

Forecast for November 7:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1108, 1.1091, 1.1080, 1.1061, 1.1045, 1.1034 and 1.1008. Here, we are following the development of the downward cycle of November 4. The continuation of movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.1061. In this case, the target is 1.1045. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.1045 - 1.1034. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.1008. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.1080 - 1.1091. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 1.1108. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward structure of November 4.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1080 Take profit: 1.1090

Buy: 1.1092 Take profit: 1.1106

Sell: 1.1060 Take profit: 1.1045

Sell: 1.1032 Take profit: 1.1010

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2924, 1.2899, 1.2876, 1.2837, 1.2802, 1.2778, 1.2742 and 1.2722. Here, after the cancellation of the ascending structure, we are following the downward initial conditions of November 1. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2837. In this case, the target is 1.2802. Short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 1.2802 - 1.2778 . The breakdown of the level of 1.2778 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 1.2742. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.2722, upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.2876 - 1.2899. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.2924. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward structure of November 1.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2876 Take profit: 1.2897

Buy: 1.2900 Take profit: 1.2922

Sell: 1.2835 Take profit: 1.2802

Sell: 1.2800 Take profit: 1.2780

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0025, 1.0001, 0.9968, 0.9939, 0.9912, 0.9900 and 0.9879. Here, we are following the formation of a medium-term ascendant structure from November 1. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9940. In this case, the target is 0.9968. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 0.9968 will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 1.0001. We consider the level of 1.0025 to be a potential value for the top. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 0.9912 - 0.9900. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.9879. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the medium-term upward structure from November 1.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9940 Take profit: 0.9966

Buy : 0.9970 Take profit: 1.0000

Sell: 0.9912 Take profit: 0.9900

Sell: 0.9898 Take profit: 0.9880

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 109.86, 109.66, 109.41, 109.24, 109.03, 108.89 and 108.67. Here, we continue to monitor the development of the upward cycle of November 1. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 109.24 - 109.41. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 109.66. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 109.86. Upon reaching this level, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 109.03 - 108.89. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 108.67. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend: the upward cycle of November 1.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 109.25 Take profit: 109.40

Buy : 109.42 Take profit: 109.65

Sell: Take profit:

Sell: 108.87 Take profit: 108.67

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3268, 1.3246, 1.3208, 1.3185, 1.3143, 1.3124 and 1.3101. Here, we are following the medium-term upward structure from October 29, as well as the local structure for the top from November 5. Short-term movement to the top is expected in the range of 1.3185 - 1.3208. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 1.3246. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.3268. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 1.3143 - 1.3124. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3101. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the medium-term initial conditions for the upward movement of November 29.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3185 Take profit: 1.3206

Buy : 1.3209 Take profit: 1.3246

Sell: 1.3143 Take profit: 1.3126

Sell: 1.3122 Take profit: 1.3101

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6928, 0.6911, 0.6898, 0.6888, 0.6869, 0.6853, 0.6841 and 0.6825. Here, the price has formed the potential for the development of the downward movement of November 5. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.6869. In this case, the target is 0.6853. Short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 0.6853 - 0.6841. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.6825. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 0.6888 - 0.6898. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.6911. This level is a key support for the downward structure from November 5. Its passage at a price will allow you to expect movement to the level of 0.6928.

The main trend is the downward potential of November 5.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6888 Take profit: 0.6897

Buy: 0.6900 Take profit: 0.6910

Sell : 0.6867 Take profit : 0.6854

Sell: 0.6851 Take profit: 0.6843

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 121.46, 121.17, 121.00, 120.74, 120.22, 119.83, 119.55 and 119.38. Here, we are following the downside potential of October 30. The continuation of movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 120.22. In this case, the first goal is 119.83. Before this value, we expect expressed initial conditions for the downward cycle. The breakdown of the level of 119.80 will lead to the development of the cycle. In this case, the goal is 119.55. Price consolidation is in the range of 119.55 - 119.38.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 120.74 - 121.00. The range of 121.00 - 121.17 is a key support for the descending structure of October 30. Its passage at a price will lead to the development of an upward trend. Here, the goal is 121.46.

The main trend is the downward potential of October 30.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 120.74 Take profit: 121.00

Buy: 121.18 Take profit: 121.44

Sell: 120.20 Take profit: 119.85

Sell: 119.80 Take profit: 119.55

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 142.82, 141.23, 139.53, 138.70, 137.79 and 137.08. Here, the price is still in the equilibrium. The continuation of movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 141.23. In this case, the potential target is 142.82. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation, are possible in the range of 139.53 - 138.70. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the target is 137.79. The range of 137.79 - 137.08 is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the medium-term upward structure of October 8, the formation of potential for the downward movement of October 21.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: Take profit:

Buy: 141.25 Take profit: 142.80

Sell: 139.50 Take profit: 138.75

Sell: 138.65 Take profit: 137.80

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Bitcoin is driven into the framework, and it is committed to the kings

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The leading digital currency is experiencing serious volatility. This happens after a kind of "roller coaster", when the price for a short period of time sharply rises and falls. The number one cryptocurrency did not escape this fate and alarmed the market participants.

Bitcoin happened to experience this in 2017, when ups alternated with falls, and then there was a collapse, which led to stagnation. At the moment, there are no such "swings", but BTC had to endure a sharp drop in value. At the beginning of the week, the leading cryptocurrency rose from $7400 to $10,500 per coin. The reason for the rise in prices was news from China. According to a statement by Chinese leader Xi Jinping, the country plans to increase investments in blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies based on it, bitcoin in particular. It is expected that the introduction of new technology will increase the availability of loans for small and medium-sized businesses.

On Tuesday, November 5, BTC tried to overcome an important psychological barrier at the level of $10,000 per coin. Attempts ended in failure. For most investors, this level is a key indicator. Exceeding this threshold will open the leading cryptocurrency road to new heights, experts said. A rise above $10,000 will mean that the digital flagship has potential for growth, and failure to break this bar is fraught with significant losses. If a negative scenario develops, experts expect massive disappointment of investors, which will result in large-scale bitcoin sales.

Experts pay attention to the technical indicator of global strength (GS Indicator), created specifically for Bitcoin. According to the results of October 2019, it showed large-scale growth, approaching 70 points. According to analysts, this indicates the overbought of bitcoin. Consequently, in the near future, a drop in the price of BTC is possible. A similar situation was observed in August 2019, when about $12,000 was given for a digital asset, while the indicator showed overbought. As a result, Bitcoin fell by $2000 within two weeks.

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Currently, all the forces of the main digital asset are aimed at maintaining their previous positions. However, the number one cryptocurrency almost does not succeed in implementing its plan. On Wednesday afternoon, the leading virtual asset showed good results, rising in pair with the dollar to $9,404.

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In the future, the BTC/USD pair began to roll down the hill, falling to $9370 per BTC. The downward movement did not stop there.

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The downward trend has gained momentum. Bitcoin tried to find the low, dropping to $9,331 per coin. Later it managed to push off and go up.

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At the moment, the leading cryptocurrency is trading within the range of$ 9350–$9351 and seeks to break into the kings as much as possible. Bitcoin has always tended to deny restrictions, but now it has to act within the existing price framework.

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At the moment, the leading cryptocurrency is trading within the range of$ 9350–$9351 and seeks to break into the kings as much as possible. Bitcoin has always tended to deny restrictions, but now it has to act within the existing price framework.As the number one cryptocurrency grows in popularity, its future value becomes the subject of a huge number of forecasts. They are very diverse and extremely controversial. Many economists, such as Nuriel Roubini, believe that within five years the price of bitcoin will drop to zero, and crypto enthusiast John McAfee, on the contrary, puts on the growth of BTC to $1,000,000 by the end of 2020. Analyzing the dynamics of the leading cryptocurrency since its inception in 2009, experts note the pronounced cyclical nature of the rise and fall of its price. Most analysts are confident that the main digital asset will be able to withstand serious disasters. They focus on the enormous potential of BTC, the vector of which is aimed more at growth than down.

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Trading idea for the AUD/CAD

Good evening, dear traders. I present to you the trading idea for the AUD/CAD pair. The decision on the Bank of Australia interest rate - to leave it unchanged until 11/05/2019 - was positively received by the market. And almost all instruments with the Australian dollar worked on a major note. Our recommendations on holding longs on the AUD/USD pair also worked perfectly for this news, and those who followed this trading recommendation closed their positions in positive territory.

However, there was only one instrument with AUD, and the potential of longs on which has not yet been fully exhausted. This is AUD/CAD. We have already given recommendations on this instrument and they all closed in positive territory:

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Despite that, the instrument has not yet fulfilled all the goals to the end. I mean the level of 0.91500. And if you want to gain a long position on it, profit can be fixed there. From current prices, the potential will be about 850p for 5zn. But if the instrument rolls back - the potential will be higher. It can be noted that the asset is quite "noisy" and gaining a position, as a rule, is not a problem. The nearest news on it (CAD)- change in employment will be released on Friday at 13:30 UTC+00. It is most likely that the breakdown will take place at this time.

Good luck in trading and see you tomorrow!

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Gold vs Wall Street: who will ultimately outsmart anyone?

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Wall Street players continue to push the stock market to new highs, ignoring all fears of a trade war, a potential recession and numerous geopolitical threats, including Brexit.

When the stock market rises, gold tends to decline in price, as stocks are a risky asset and yellow precious metal is a hedging instrument.

In recent days, gold has lost a bit of its position, but is still holding close to the key mark of $1,500 per ounce.

Stock market bulls are focusing on the generally strong third quarter corporate reporting season and October US employment growth, as well as rumors that Washington and Beijing may soon enter into a partial trade deal.

Proponents of strong gold give their own arguments. They believe that until the risks of a trade war and geopolitical threats, including Brexit, are completely (or sufficiently) eliminated, investors will use precious metals as a hedging tool.

"Apparently, the markets have adapted to the ambiguous forecast of the Fed for 2020, because data dependence and constant fears of suppressed inflation retain the potential to soften the policy of the regulator. In this scenario, gold can still provide effective protection against a slowdown in economic growth, while a further reduction in rates (possibly already in the first half of 2020) will support risk sentiment in the short term, despite all the problems of the global economy," TD Securities representatives noted.

Along with statements that there are many reasons that should restrain the current stock market rally, one can hear opinions about the lack of support factors for gold that could prevent it from falling to $1,400 or even lower.

Specialists at TD Securities believe that the skeptics' predicted sale of gold due to positioning may turn out to be more modest than might be expected.

According to experts, it is still unknown how strongly trade optimism will support Wall Street and risky assets in general.

Time after time, gold finds support below the psychologically important mark of $1,500 per ounce, even despite overbought and reduced tensions in trade relations between the United States and China.

In the first half of the year, the precious metal went up by 20%. Usually, such a strong growth is followed by a correction that allows you to "cool" the mood. However, the peak that we have so far seen as part of the correction for gold is a decrease of $100 from a local peak and two months of "talk" in the range of $1,560-1,460 with a gradual narrowing of it. It is quite possible that this talk in the range will continue until December.

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