Global macro overview for 31/10/2017

Global macro overview for 31/10/2017:

The recent weeks have left investors sharply negative about the US Dollar. Just two months ago, the market discussed d the low probability of tax cut approval and a rate hike in December. Today, both scenarios are baseline, which, together with the fears of a US-North Korean conflict and strong rises in energy and industrial commodities prices of nearly 50 bps, have pushed the US ten-year bonds higher. The room for further strengthening of the US Dollar is still big. Especially, if the global investors consider that the market in less than 50% discount the interest rate hikes suggested in the Fed projections for 2018. At the same time, the process of reduction of the balance sheet total and the impact of increasing the debt limit on the absorption of excess liquidity in the financial sector are not sufficiently taken into account.

On the other hand, the successor to Yellen seems to be settled. It is almost certain it will be Jerome Powell. However, this is not a threat to the USD, since such a choice has already been priced in. It is worth noting, however, that the FOMC decision-making board will change slightly towards "hawkish" point of view if Taylor or Warsh will make it to the Board of Governors.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture on the H4 time frame. The sequence of higher highs and higher lows continues. There is only one technical support left to be tested in order to continue the local uptrend and it is at the level of 94.26. Only a sustained breakout below the golden trend-line support would change the bias to bearish again.

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Global macro overview for 31/10/2017

Global macro overview for 31/10/2017:

In the Monetary Policy Statement, BoJ Governor Kuroda said that debating stimulus exit would send a wrong message to the markets. Moreover, he noted that the Japanese economy is doing well, but the inflation expectations and prices remain weak, so BoJ wants inflation to hit the 2% price target at earliest possible date. The GDP forecast was slightly increased to 1.9% from 1.8% for this year and left unchanged at 1.4% for the next year. Moreover, the next year's inflation forecast was trimmed to 1.4% vs. 1.5% last time.

The Bank of Japan remains faithful to its policy of loosening and maintaining the yields of ten-year bonds at zero. The decision was made by 8-1 vote. Nevertheless, the new BoJ board member, Kataoka, dissented again, stressing the need for new measures to achieve the 2% inflation target. Kataoka said: "if there were a delay in the timing of achieving the price target due to domestic factors, the BoJ should take additional easing measures." Kataoka also proposed that BoJ should also target to keep 15-year yield at "less than 0.2%", compared with market expectations of 0.307%.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture on the H4 time frame after the news was released. The market was rejected at the recent high at the level of 114.47 and broke below the technical support at the level of 113.43, which is now being tested from below. Any breakout below the level of 112.94 will directly reveal the level of 112.27 for a test.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for October 31, 2017

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USD/JPY is under pressure. The pair recorded lower tops and lower bottoms since October 27, which confirmed a negative outlook. The downward momentum is further reinforced by both declining 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index is bearish and calls for a further drop.

To conclude, as long as 113.65 holds on the upside, look for a new test to 112.95 and even to 112.70 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a long position is recommended above 113.65 with a target at 113.85.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 113.65, Take Profit: 112.95

Resistance levels: 113.85, 114.05 and 114.45 Support Levels: 112.95, 112.70, 112.40

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Bitcoin analysis for October 31, 2017

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $6.230. The Iranian government has been conducting a research into the economic and infrastructural aspects of preparing for bitcoin use in its country. According to the ministry of information technology, "arrangements are being made" to put together the infrastructure for the digital currency "as early as possible." Technical picture looks bullish today.

Trading recommendations:

According to the H1 time frame, I found a broken pivot resistance 1 at the price of $6.200, which is a sign that buyers are in control. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of $6.311 (pivot resistance 2) and at the price of $6.400 (pivot resistance 3).

Support/Resistance

$6.109 – Pivot level

$6.311 – Pivot resistance 2

$6.400 – Pivot resistance 3

$5.995 – Pivot support 1

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for October 31, 2017

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NZD/USD is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. The pair posted a rebound and broke above its 20- and 50-period moving averages. In addition, the 50-period moving average is turning up. The relative strength index lacks downward momentum.

The US dollar turned weaker ahead of the Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting starting Tuesday and the US October jobs report due Friday. Investors also grew cautious amid news that Paul Manafort, President Donald Trump's former campaign manager was facing charges in the Russian probe.

Hence, as long as 0.9935 is a support, look for a further advance with targets at 1.0030 and 1.0050 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot points indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 0.9935, Take Profit: 1.0030

Resistance levels: 1.0030, 1.0050, and 1.0075

Support levels: 0.9900, 0.9870, and 0.9850

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Analysis of gold for October 31, 2017

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Recently, gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1,273.50. According to the 15M timeframe, I found a broken support cluster and the pivot level lies at the price of $1,274.70, which is a sign that sellers are in control today. I also found a broken upward trendline in the background, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potetnial selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at $1,270.60 (pivot support 1) and $1,265.00 (pivot support 2).

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,280.45

R2: $1,284.58

R3: $1,290.31

Support levels:

S1: $1,270.60

S2: $1,265.00

S3: $1,260.70

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for October 31, 2017

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We will retain our yesterday's prediction on the pair. GBP/JPY is still expected to trade with bullish outlook. The pair is trading above its rising 20-period and 50-period moving averages, which play support roles and maintain the bullish bias. The relative strength index is bullish and calls for a further advance. The downside potential should be limited by the key support at 149.10.

Hence, as long as this key level is not broken, look for a new challenge with targets at 150.40 and 150.90 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a short position is recommended below 149.10 with the target at 148.60.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 149.10, Take Profit: 150.40

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates long positions; and when it is below the pivot points, it indicates short positions. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 150.40, 150.90 and 151.45

Support levels: 148.60, 147.90, and 147.35

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Analysis of Bitcoin for October 31, 2017

The Bitcoin is currently showing some bearish intervention after breaking above the $6,000 price level with an impulsive bullish move recently. There has been no high impact economic events recently on the Bitcoin side but China is expected to allow the Bitcoin exchanges which were banned some months ago. The Chinese regulator is currently being positive for the Bitcoin trading in China but it can also be a rumor as well. As of the current situation, the price is expected to show some retracement towards the dynamic level of 20 EMA and Tenkan Sen before showing some bullish move. The price remains above the dynamic level of 20 EMA and $5,500 support area.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for October 31, 2017

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NZD/USD is expected to trade with bearish outlook. The pair has failed to post a sustainable rebound while being capped by the key resistance at 0.6880. Currently, it is trading around the overlapping 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The 20-period moving average has crossed back below the 50-period one, helping to maintain the bearish intraday outlook.

As long as the key resistance at 0.6880 is not surpassed, the pair stands a higher chance of returning to 0.6800 before sinking further to 0.6775.

The black line is showing the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which indicates long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines are showing the support levels and the green line is indicating the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.6900, 0.6930, and 0.6965

Support levels: 0.6800, 0.6775, and 0.6735

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Analysis of GBP/USD for October 31, 2017

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.3222. According to the 30M timeframe, I found a fake breakout of yesterday's high at the price of 1.3215, which is a sign that buying looks risky. There is also a hidden bearish divergence on the moving average oscialltor, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at 1.3180, 1.3167 and 1.3155.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3244

R2: 1.3280

R3: 1.3347

Support levels:

S1: 1.3140

S2: 1.3075

S3: 1.3038

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for October 31, 2017

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair hasn't made any significant moves since yesterday. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 0.6760 or lower. The price is still trading around the area of 0.6860 and 0.6800. The NZD/USD pair continues to move downwards from the zone of 0.6942 and 0.7880. Last week, the pair dropped from the level of 0.6942 to 0.6942 which coincides with a ratio of 23.6% Fibonacci on the H4 chart. Today, the resistance is seen at the levels of 0.6945 and 0.7033. So, we expect the price to set below the strong resistance at the levels of 0.6945 and 0.7033 because the price is in a bearish channel now. The RSI starts signaling a downward trend. Consequently, the market is likely to show signs of a bearish trend. So, it will be good to sell below the level of 0.6942/0.6900 with the first target at 0.6800. If the NZD/USD pair is able to break out the daily support at 0.6800, the market will decline further to 0.6760 in order to test the daily support two. However, the price spot of 0.6942 remains a significant resistance zone. Thus, the trend is still bearish as long as the level of 0.6945 is not broken.
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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for October 31, 2017

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Overview:

  • The Swiss franc broke the resistance at 0.9942 last week, which acts as support now. So, the pair has already formed minor support at 0.9942. The strong support is seen at the level of 0.9898 because it represents the weekly pivot. In the H1 time frame, the RSI and the moving average (100) are still pointing to the upside. Therefore, the market indicates a bullish opportunity at the level of 0.9942. Buy above the minor support of 0.9942 with targets at the levels of 1.0050 and 1.0100. Also, it should be noted that if the trend is buoyant, then the strength in this currency pair will be defined as follows: USD is in an uptrend and CHF is in a downtrend. On the other hand, if the pair closes below the minor support (0.9942), the price will fall into the bearish market in order to go further towards the strong support at 0.9898. Briefly, the minor support is seen at the level of 0.9942. It will be profitable to buy above the spot of 0.9940 with the targets of 0.9998, 1.0050 and 1.0100. However, the stop loss should be placed at the 0.9900 level.
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Bitcoin analysis for 31/10/2017

Bitcoin analysis for 31/10/2017:

The Lebanese Central Bank, Banque du Liban (BDL) and Governor Riad Salameh say the Bitcoin and other digital currencies are unregulated commodities the use of which should be prohibited. He also said that they would be ineffective as national currencies because they are just goods. At the opening ceremony of the 7th Corporate Social Responsibility Lebanon Forum at the end of October 2017, Salameh told participants that the BDL forbade the use of the cryptocurrencies in Lebanon because of their remoteness. In addition, he argued that future money would be digitized: "These Bitcoins are not currencies but a commodity whose prices are rising and falling without any justification, therefore the BDL forbids the use of this currency in the Lebanese market. We understand that electronic currency will play a significant role in the future, but BDL must first make the necessary arrangements before taking this step and develop a cybercrime prevention system" he said during the ceremony. At the forum Salameh also announced the plan of the Central Bank to introduce its own digital currency. He did not disclose whether the currency would be based on Blockchain's technology that is integral to the Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. It is possible that BDL will use other forms of technology to create a centralized digital currency in Lebanon.

Independent countries such as Ecuador and Sweden are exploring the possibilities of using other technologies to create their own digital money. In its turn, China is studying the use of Blockchain to create its own digital currency.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has made another higher high at the level of $6,312 and then slid towards the weekly pivot at the level of $6,000. Currently, the price is trading in a horizontal zone between those two levels in overbought trading conditions. Moreover, there is still a possibility for another wave down, wave (c), in order to complete the bigger cycle correction labeled as wave 4.

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Trading plan for 31/10/2017

Trading plan for 31/10/2017:

Tuesday's Asian session did not bring any change in volatility. USD/JPY is trading around 113.00 after the Bank of Japan maintained its policy stance unchanged while revising downward inflation projections for 2017 and 2018. EUR/USD is closed in a range between 1.1625 and 1.1650. GBP/USD is trading near 1.32. The two days of correction were again under moderate pressure, especially on the weaker NZD today.

On Tuesday 31st of October, the event calendar is quite busy with important news releases. During the London session, France will post Preliminary GDP and CPI figures (the same applies to the Eurozone) and Italy will release CPI and Unemployment Rate data. During the US session, Canada will post Gross Domestic Product data and the US will present CB Consumer Confidence and Chicago Purchasing Manager Index data. There are speeches from BOC Governor Stephen Poloz and BOC Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins scheduled later during the day as well.

EUR/USD analysis for 31/10/2017:

The Consumer Price Index, Unemployment Rate, and Preliminary GDP data from the Eurozone are scheduled for release at 10:00 am GMT. Market participants expect the unemployment rate to decrease from 9.1% to 9.0%, while the CPI is expected to stay at the same level of 1.1%. At the same time, the Preliminary GDP is expected to decrease slightly from 0.6% to 0.5% (the yearly basis should stay unchanged at 2.3%). The CPI is the key gauge for inflation in the Eurozone. This index tracks changes in the price of goods and services that a typical household might purchase. When the CPI is high, it indicates that significant inflationary pressures exist in Eurozone economies. This puts pressure on the European Central Bank to raise interest rates. In a case of a better than expected data, especially the inflation data, the market volatility may increase.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The price had tested the technical resistance at the level of 1.1662, but got rejected. The dip was not deep and the market still trades between the levels of 1.1662 - 1.1574. The momentum indicator stays below its fifty level, so not much bullish pressure is building. The near-term bias is still bearish.

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Market Snapshot: Crude Oil extends gains

Crude oil prices extended gains to the level of $54.45 and establishes a short-term support at the level of $53.73. Nevertheless, the market conditions are overbought and if the support at $53.73 is violated, then the price will test the next important support at the level of $52.86.

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Market Snapshot: NZD/USD reverses again

The price of NZD/USD has managed to retrace barely 38% of the last swing down and was rejected at the level of 0.6889. Currently, the price is getting closer to the technical support at the level of 0.6814, which is the important daily support. Any breakout lower will extend the slide towards the next daily technical support at the level of 0.6672.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for October 31, 2017

EUR/USD: What has recently happened on the EUR/USD is what can best be described as a rally in the context of a downtrend. Further rally may take price towards the resistance line at 1.1700, which would be tested before price goes downwards. Otherwise, a breach of the resistance line at 1.1750 would result in a new bullish bias.

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USD/CHF: What has recently happened on the USD/CHF is what can best be described as a pullback in the context of a uptrend. Further pullback may take price towards the support level at 0.9900, which would be tested before price goes upwards. Otherwise, a breach of the support level at 0.9850 would result in a new bearish bias.

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GBP/USD: This pair is still caught in a broad equilibrium phase. Soon, there would be a rise in volatility, which would propel the price above the distribution territory at 1.3300 or below the accumulation territory at 1.3000. GBP pairs would undergo very strong movements in November, which would be bullish in most cases.

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USD/JPY: This currency trading instrument came downwards on October 30 – something that has become a threat to the recent bullish outlook on the market. Unless price goes upwards from here (which would save the bullish outlook), things would go bearish once the demand level at 112.50 is breached to the downside.

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EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY pair traded lower on Monday, reaching the demand zone at 131.50. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart, which means that price is expected to go further downwards this week, reaching the demand zones at 131.00 and 130.50.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for NZD/USD for October 31, 2017

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Daily Outlook

A recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards the next price zones around 0.7150-0.7230 (Key Zone) and 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

Recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhanced the bearish side of the market. This brought the NZD/USD pair towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key Zone) again which failed to pause the ongoing bearish momentum.

An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart indicating high probability of bearish reversal as long as bearish persistence below the neckline 0.7150 is maintained.

As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why, further decline should be expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).

On the other hand, if the recent low (0.6817) remains defended by the bulls, a bullish pullback and a short-term BUY entry can be expected during this week's consolidations.

The next demand level to meet the pair is located around 0.6710 that maybe visited if enough bearish pressure is applied below 0.6800.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for October 31, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allowed a quick advance towards 1.2100 where recent evidence of bearish rejection was expressed (Note the previous monthly candlestick of September).

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend was reversed when the Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout was expressed towards the price level of 1.2100 where the depicted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was seen.

If the recent bearish breakout persists below 1.1700 (a neckline of the reversal pattern), a quick decline should be expected towards the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 (Initial targets for the depicted H&S pattern).

Bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern extends towards 1.1350 if enough bearish pressure is applied on the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).

Trade Recommendations

The current bearish movement towards the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 can be considered for a short-term BUY entry (provided that evident bullish recovery is manifested at retesting).

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for October 31, 2017

The US dollar index has pulled back towards the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the latest rise from 93.50. The decline looks corrective and it is more probable to see new highs in the index. The level of 95.45 remains our bounce target but not to be traded as I prefer to wait for a selling opportunity or signal.

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The dollar index is trading above the 4 hour Kumo cloud support. Price is hovering between the Tenkan- and the Kijun-sen indicators. Support by the Kijun-sen is at 94.30 while resistance lies at 94.70. The trend remains bullish and this is still considered as a pull back in an up-trend.

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On a weekly basis the price is making higher highs and higher lows. It is approaching our short-term target of the 38% Fibonacci retracement. Above 94 is not the time to be buying the dollar index. I prefer to wait for a sell signal and an opportunity around 95.50 because I expect a rejection and a reversal in the index.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for October 31, 2017

Gold price made a higher high in the very short term yesterday, breaking above and out of the downward sloping wedge, but price remains below the 4 hour Cloud resistance. The trend remains bearish.

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Blue line - resistance

Red line - support

Gold price is trading above both the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators in the 4 hour chart but below the Kumo (cloud) resistance. Bulls need not only to break out of the Wedge but also penetrate the cloud resistance at $1,280-$1,287. Breaking above the cloud would be a bullish breakout confirmation. Until then we are still in danger of visiting lower levels.

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On a daily basis gold price is trying to recapture the tenkan-sen indicator (red line). Important cloud resistance is at $1,286. A daily close above it will be a bullish sign. Support lies at $1,268. If it is broken, we should expect the price to move lower towards $1,255-60.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental analysis of USD/CAD for October 31, 2017

USD/CAD has been quite bullish recently which is currently quite corrective and showed some bullish rejections off the 1.2800-50 resistance area. USD has been positive with the economic reports which helped the currency to gain momentum against CAD. Today is going to be a volatile day for CAD as the GDP report is going to be published which is expected to have a slight increase to 0.1% from the previous value of 0.0%. Along with the GDP report, Canada's RMPI report is expected to be published with a decrease to 0.4% from the previous value of 1.0%, while the IPPI report is expected to increase to 0.5% from the previous value of 0.3%. Additionally, Bank of Canada Governor Poloz is going to speak today about short-term interest rates and future monetary policies which is expected to be hawkish in nature. On the USD side, today the US Employment Cost Index report is going to be published which is expected to show an increase to 0.7% from the previous value of 0.5%, S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI report is expected to be unchanged at 5.8%, and the Chicago PMI report is expected to decrease to 60.2 from the previous figure of 65.2. Besides, the CB Consumer Confidence report is expected to show an increase to 121.1 from the previous figure of 119.8. Ahead of the Fed rate decision on Wednesday which is expected to be unchanged at 1.25% the currency is expected to be quite neutral in nature. As of the current situation, CAD is expected to have an upper hand over USD if Canada's GDP report comes as expected or better than expected today. This week is going to be very volatile for the USD based pairs as the FOMC meeting, the Federal Funds rate, Non-Farm Payroll, Average Cash Earnings and Unemployment Rate reports are going to be published which is expected to show the upcoming directional bias of the market and unfold the next moves.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing inside the resistance area of 1.2770-1.2850 ahead of the GDP report and BOC Gov Poloz's speech. The pair is expected to show an impulsive bearish move towards 1.2450 if the price breaks below 1.2770 with a daily close today. As the price remains below 1.2850, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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Fundamental analysis of GBP/USD for October 31, 2017

GBP/USD has been quite corrective and volatile recently residing inside the price range from 1.3130 to 1.3270. GBP has been quite mixed with the economic reports whereas the market sentiment has been USD biased recently. Market participants anticipate that the BOE will increase the interest rates from 0.25% to 0.50%, which is expected to lead to further gains on the GBP side. Recently, the Net Lending to Individuals report was published in the UK with a decreased figure of 5.5B from the previous 5.7B. The M4 Money Supply data was published with a negative value of -0.2% from the previous positive value of 1.1% which was expected to be at 0.7%. The Mortgage Approvals was also published as expected at 66k which previously was at 67. Furthermore, the GfK Consumer Confidence report was published with greater deficit as expected at -10 from the previous figure of -9. The latest UK economic reports came in line with forecasts which helped the currency to gain strength ahead of the interest rate decision that is due to be published on Thursday. On the USD side, the United States presented quite positive economic reports and ahead of the rate decision on Wednesday certain volatility is expected in this pair. Today the US Employment Cost Index report is going to be published which is expected to show an increase to 0.7% from the previous value of 0.5%, the S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI report is expected to be unchanged at 5.8%, while the Chicago PMI report is expected to decrease to 60.2 from the previous figure of 65.2. Besides, the CB Consumer Confidence report is expected to show an increase to 121.1 from the previous figure of 119.8. To sum up, this week is going to be a very volatile and liquid for the pair as there will be only 18 hours of time difference from the US Interest Rate decision and the BOE Interest Rate which is expected to make the market spike a lot. Currently the price is in range but after the rate decisions are done we will be getting the indication for the further moves. GBP is expected to have an upper hand over USD as this month the United Kingdom is likely to increase the interest rate whereas the Fed rate hike is expected to happen in December.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing inside a corrective range between 1.3130 and 1.3270. The pair is currently being held by dynamic level of 20 EMA as resistance but due to recent false break and impulsive bullish pressure it is expected that the price will break above the range and create new highs with target towards 1.3650 resistance area. As the price remains above 1.3100-30 support area, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for October 31, 2017

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EUR/NZD - Daily

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EUR/NZD - 8 Hourly

Wave summary:

As long as support at 1.6794 is able to protect the downside, we will continue to look higher for a test of the 1.7988 target. In the short term, a break above resistance at 1.7208 is needed to confirm the expected rally higher to the 1.7988 target.

Should support at 1.6749 however be broken, that will call for a deeper correction to the 1.6150 - 1.6225 area before the next impulsive rally higher.

R3: 1.7125

R2: 1.7058

R1: 1.7016

Pivot: 1.6911

S1: 1.6889

S2: 1.6820

S3: 1.6794

Trading recommendation:

We are looking for a buying opportunity at 1.6890 with stop placed at 1.6790 or upon a break above 1.7054.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for October 31, 2017

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EYR/JPY - Weekly

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EUR/JPY - 8 Hourly

Wave summary:

We are looking for the completion of wave (D) of a huge triangle consolidation, that began way back in July 2008. The ideal target for this (D) wave is seen at 137.37. However, the break below 131.60 is questioning whether this (D) wave could have completed already with the test of 134.49 and wave (E) already is developing. If the (E) wave is developing, then we should expect resistance in the 132.96 - 133.32 area to protect the upside for a strong break below support at 131.60 confirming a decline to 123.43.

R3: 132.96

R2: 132.32

R1: 131.95

Pivot: 131.60

S1: 131.09

S2: 130.60

S3: 129.96

Trading recommendation:

Our stop + revers at 131.60 has been hit with a loss of 70 pips. We are now short EUR from 131.60 and will place our stop at 132.00.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Oct 31, 2017

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In Asia, Japan will release the Housing Starts y/y, BOJ Core CPI y/y, BOJ Policy Rate, Monetary Policy Statement, Prelim Industrial Production m/m, Unemployment Rate, and Household Spending y/y data, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as CB Consumer Confidence, Chicago PMI, S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y, and Employment Cost Index q/q . So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 113.73.

Resistance. 2: 113.51.

Resistance. 1: 113.28.

Support. 1: 113.01.

Support. 2: 112.79.

Support. 3: 112.56.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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EUR/USD approaching major resistance, prepare to sell

The price continues to confirm our suspicion as it rises towards major breakout resistance. We remain bearish as we continue to expect a strong push up to selling area of 1.1666 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance, breakout area) for sell orders to be accumulated before a further push back down to 1.1572 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (21,3,1) is approaching major resistance at 96% where we expect a strong reaction from.

Sell below 1.1666. Stop loss is at 1.1738. Take profit is at 1.1572.

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USD/CHF on nice support, time to start buying

The price is right above major support at 0.9937 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support, Fibonacci extension) and we look to buy above this level for a push up to at least 1.0033 resistance (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance).

Stochastic (23,3,1) is seeing strong support above 1.9% where we expect a corresponding bounce from.

Buy above 0.9937. Stop loss is at 0.9872. Take profit is at 1.0033.

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Daily analysis of USDX for October 31, 2017

USDX remains supported by the 94.60 level and still awaits for a catalyst that resumes the bullish bias. The resistance zone of 95.14 is capping the upside in the index and if it gives up, then we might expect another rally attempt to test the 95.85 level, while to the downside, nearest support is the 200 SMA at H1 chart.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 95.14 / 95.85

H1 chart's support levels: 94.60 / 93.97

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 95.14, take profit is at 95.85 and stop loss is at 94.47.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for October 31, 2017

GBP/USD managed to recover from Friday's lows and now it's challenging the 200 SMA at H1 chart, in an effort to resume the bullish bias for the short-term. Such moving average could act as dynamic resistance and if it breaks above that area, we can expect gains toward the 1.3309 level. MACD indicator is turning overbought, calling for a pullback.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3201 / 1.3309

H1 chart's support levels: 1.3037 / 1.2870

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.3037, take profit is at 1.2870 and stop loss is at 1.3201.

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Analysis of Bitcoin for October 30, 2017

The Bitcoin has recently broken above the $6,000 resistance area with a daily close which just opened the doorway to more highs in the coming days. November is going to be a very interesting month for the Bitcoin, whereas closing above $6,000 price level is said to be a bonus. This is expected to work as fuel for the upcoming impulsive bullish move in the future. The Bitcoin is currently retesting the $6,000 price level as support before launching up higher with a view of creating new highs. There are also news that the cryptocurrency market may also appear in Beijing very soon after the recent Chinese ICO ban. This could really be very interesting to see how the cryptocurrency works in China and what effect the market will get. As of the current situation, the price is being backed by the dynamic level of 20 EMA and Tenkan Sen. We might see some correction before price shows another bullish jump towards $6,500 and later towards $7,000 resistance area. As the price remains above $5,500 and $5,000 level, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for October 30, 2017

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USD/JPY is under pressure and is expected to trade in a lower range. The pair is trading below its declining 20-period and 50-period moving averages, which play resistance roles and maintain the downside bias. The relative strength index is bearish and calls for a further decline.

To sum up, as long as 114.00 is not surpassed, look for a new test with targets at 113.00 and 112.70 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a long position is recommended above 114.00 with a target at 114.30.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 114.00, Take Profit: 113.00

Resistance levels: 114.30, 114.65 and 115.00 Support Levels: 113.00, 112.70, 112.40

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for October 30, 2017

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USD/CHF is expected to trade with bullish bias above 0.9960. Although the pair posted a pullback, a support base at 0.9960 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilization. Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

The U.S. Commerce Department reported that grew the U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.0% in the third quarter, compared with +2.7% expected and +3.1% in the second quarter.

Hence, as long as 0.9960 holds on the downside, a further upside to 1.0035 and even to 1.0065 seems more likely to occur.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot points indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 0.9960, Take Profit: 0.9900

Resistance levels: 1.0035, 1.0035, and 1.0065

Support levels: 0.9930, 0.9900, and 0.9865

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for October 30, 2017

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Daily Outlook

A recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards next price zones around 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) and 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

The recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhanced the bearish side of the market. This brought the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) which failed to pause the ongoing bearish momentum.

An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart indicating a high probability of bearish reversal.

Bearish persistence below the neckline 0.7150 confirms the reversal pattern. Next bearish targets are located around 0.7050, 0.6925 and eventually 0.6800.

As expected, the price level of 0.7050 offered temporary bullish support before bearish breakdown could take place. That's why the further bearish decline should be expected towards 0.6925 and eventually 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish targets).

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for October 30, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allowed a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where recent evidence of bearish rejection was expressed (Note the previous Monthly candlestick of September).

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend reversed when the Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, an evident bullish breakout is being witnessed on the chart. The next Supply level to be watched is located around 1.2100 (Level of previous multiple bottoms) where bearish rejection and a Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was recently expressed.

On the other hand, If the recent bearish breakout persists below 1.1800 and 1.1700 (Neckline of the reversal pattern), a quick bearish decline should be expected towards the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 (Initial targets for the depicted H&S pattern).

The bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern extends towards 1.1350 if enough bearish pressure is applied against the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).

Trade Recommendations

The current bearish movement towards the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 can be considered for a valid BUY entry (provided that evident bullish recovery is manifested at retesting).

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Bitcoin analysis for October 30, 2017

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $6.221. The Japanese Financial Services Agency (FSA) has issued a statement regarding initial coin offerings (ICOs). In addition to risk warnings, the agency detailed how two existing laws may apply to token sales. Technical picture looks bearish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 1H time frame, I found a potential double top formation and confirmed resistance at the price of $6.621. There is also a doji candle in the background, which is a sign that buyers lost power and that Bitcoin may start a potential downward correction. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. Downward targets are set at the price of $6.012, $5.947 and $5.888. All targets are based on Fibonacci levels.

Support/Resistance

$6.222 – Resistance (price action)

$6.012 – Fibonacci 38.2 % support

$5.947 – Fibonacci 50 % support

$5.888 – Fibonacci 61.8 % support

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for October 30, 2017

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade with bullish outlook above 148.95. The pair posted a rebound from 148.95. The 20-period moving average has crossed above the 50-period one, indicating a positive signal. The relative strength index calls for a bounce.

Therefore, as long as 148.95 holds on the upside, look for a new advance with targets at 150.40 and 150.90 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a short position is recommended below 148.95 with the target at 148.95.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 148.95, Take Profit: 1150.40

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates long positions; and when it is below the pivot points, it indicates short positions. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 150.40, 150.90 and 151.45

Support levels: 148.60, 147.90, and 147.35

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Analysis of Gold for October 30, 2017

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Recently, the Gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1,271.00. According to the 15M time - frame, I found broken intraday bearish flag formation, which is sign that buying looks risky. I also found broken pivot level at $1,270.36, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $1,267.00 (pivot support 1) and at the price of $1,260.50 (pivot support 2).

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,277.00

R2: $1,280.45

R3: $1,287.00

Support levels:

S1: $1,267.00

S2: $1,260.50

S3: $1,256.85

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for October 30, 2017

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NZD/USD is expected to trade with bullish outlook above 0.6825. Although the pair broke below the 20-period moving average, it is still trading above its rising 50-period moving average, which plays a support role. The relative strength index is above its neutrality level at 50. Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Therefore, above 0.6825, look for a further rise to 0.6875 and even to 0.6900 in extension.

The black line is showing the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which indicates long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines are showing the support levels and the green line is indicating the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.6875, 0.6900, and 0.6935

Support levels: 0.6800, 0.6765, and 0.6735

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Global macro overview for 30/10/2017

Global macro overview for 30/10/2017:

The reading from a month ago was at the level of 105.8 and this month reading was released at the level of 109.1.This is the second upward movement in succession. The upward tendency is mainly driven by the banking and manufacturing indicators. However, the prospects for exports and the accommodation and food service activities are also somewhat better than before. The indicators for domestic consumption are stagnating, and the indicators for the further development of the construction sector have declined somewhat. Regarding tot he manufacturing, the indicators for machinery, metal, electrical equipment, paper and other manufacturing industries are pointing upwards.

The Swiss economy is performing well and Autumn is welcoming it with a tailwind. The SNB is far from lifting borrowing rates and the current level of negative interest rates at -0.75% might stay here a little longer despite the recent European Central Bank announcement of a reduction of the monthly asset purchase of €30bn per month (which is clearly tightening, while at the same time sounding dovish).

Let's now take a look at the EUR/CHF technical picture at the H4 time frame. The further upside EUR/CHF is quite limited in the short-term as market participants are progressively adopting a more bearish bias on the pair. In addition, the Catalan crisis reminded everybody that the European Union is not as united as Brussels says. On the other hand, there is little incentive for investors to bet on a sharp reversal in EUR/CHF as monetary policy divergence is clearly in favor of Euro. The recent bounce from the level of 1.1557 might be short-lived if the Catalan tensions will escalate.

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