USDCAD: Optimistic US GDP to support USD over CAD. June 26, 2019

The USD/CAD pair managed to sustain bearish momentum. The pair moved below 1.3200 area. Though the price was volatile, the preceding bearish trend was quite dominant. The pair was expected to drop but certain retrace or pullback may occur.

Market participants are focused on the Fed's decision on the key rate cut. This uncertainty puts pressure on the US dollar. US President Donald Trump pressed the Fed to reduce interest rates and considered candidates for two open board seats. Fed chief James Bullard has also made the case for lower rates, and at the central bank's most recent policy meeting earlier this month he dissented from the decision to leave rates unchanged. Recently Fed Chairman Jerome Powell defended the central bank's independence from President Donald Trump and financial markets. Both officials seem to be pushing for aggressive rate cuts.

Moreover, due to the trade wars, US consumer confidence tumbled to a 21-month low in June as households grew a bit more pessimistic about business and labor market conditions. US GDP report is going to be published on Friday. The reading is expected to be unchanged at 3.1%. Today, US Core Durable Goods Orders report is going to be unveiled. The figure is expected to increase to 0.1% from the previous value of 0.0%, Durable Goods Orders is expected to rise to 0.0% from the previous negative value of -2.1%. Additionally, Goods Trade Balance is expected to grow to -71.8B from the previous figure of -72.1B, and Prelim Wholesale Inventories is expected to drop to 0.6% from the previous value of 0.8%.

On the other hand, Canadian Retail Sales increased to 0.1%. National Bank of Canada's analyst Krishen Rangasamy points out that the depreciation of the Canadian dollar has been a factor behind the rise in inflation in Canada and that could lead to the Bank of Canada to consider the inflation overshoot for short-term. Canada's retail prices have outpaced those of the US in part due to the depreciation of the Canadian dollar, the latter making imported items more expensive. Recently CAD Wholesale Sales showed an increase to 1.7% from the previous value of 1.4% which was expected to tumble to 0.2%.

This week on Friday, CAD GDP report is going to be published. The reading is expected to rise to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.5%. If the forecast is correct, the Canadian dollar may lose momentum while the US dollar may add gains.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has been correcting at the edge of the 1.3200 area while forming Bullish Divergence and showing further upward pressure. The current price location is also quite far from the Mean. Thus, it is expected to pullback towards 1.3200-1.3300 area in the coming days. Despite the preceding bearish trend, certain counter trend momentum is expected to be short-term.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 26/06/2019:

Technical Overview:

The GBP/USD pair has made a minimal breakout above the resistance zone, but the price quickly reversed and made a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern. The pair moved lower to test the support at the level of 1.2668 as the market conditions are now overbought. Any violation of this level will lead to an even deeper correction towards the support seen at the level of 1.2605. The larget time frame trend is still down.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3080

WR2 - 1.2903

WR1 - 1.2852

Weekly Pivot - 1.2673

WS1 - 1.2612

WS2 - 1.2435

WS3 - 1.2368

Trading Recommendations:

The current move up might the beginning of a larger impulsive breakout, so only the buy orders should be opened. The best strategy for this market is to open the buy orders during the local pull-back or larger corrections. Nevertheless, please notice that the larget time frame trend is down, so all the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the downtrend.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 26/06/2019:

Technical Overview:

The EUR/USD pair has reversed after hitting the level of 1.1405 as the Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern was made. The price moved down to test the technical support located at the level of 1.1347 due to the overbought market conditions and weaker than before momentum oscillator. There is still a chance for a move up if the support holds but if it will not, then the next support is seen at the level of 1.1268.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1662

WR2 - 1.1520

WR1 - 1.1459

Weekly Pivot - 1.1309

WS1 - 1.1258

WS2 - 1.1120

WS3 - 1.1064

Trading Recommendations:

The current move up might the beginning of a larger impulsive breakout, so only the buy orders should be opened. The best strategy for this market is to open the buy orders during the local pull-back or larger corrections.

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Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 26/06/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

The largest bank in the United States, JPMorgan Chase (JPM), expects to release its own JPM Coin cryptocurrency by the end of 2019.

Umar Farooq, Head of Digital Treasury Services and Blockchain Technology at JPMorgan, revealed the company's intention to launch JPM Coin pilot tests with selected clients at the end of the year in the event that the relevant regulatory authorities approve such a bank operation.

According to Farooq, JPMorgan noted an increase in interest from global clients in the potential benefits of the JPM Coin banking project disclosed in mid-February 2019. In particular, JPMorgan's customers in the US, Europe, and Japan have expressed interest in JPM Coin's ability to accelerate transactions related to trading in securities and bonds.

In this regard, Farooq said that the bank's stablecoin has the potential to immediately provide bonds through Blockchain technology. The JPM director also revealed the bank's positive attitude towards digital securities, predicting that many shares will become digital in five to 20 years.

Technical Overview:

The ETH/USD pair has made another higher high at the level of $335.96, so the old wave scenario has been invalidated and the alternative count is now present on the chart. In this count, the market is in the wave (3) cycle, so there are wave (4) and wave (5) needed to complete the cycle. The main technical support is seen at the level of $320.84 and the invalidation level is seen at $278.14.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $399.14

WR2 - $359.00

WR1 - $340.76

Weekly Pivot - $299.53

WS1 - $285.30

WS2 - $243.70

WS3 - $227.28

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 4, which is a corrective wave and after is completed, the uptrend should resume.

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Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 26/06/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

The total number of Bitcoin ATMs (BTMs) around the world reached the threshold of 5,000 for the first time, as confirmed by CoinATMRadar.

According to the latest statistics, there are currently 5,006 standalone BTM in around 90 countries, where cryptocurrency users can buy or sell Bitcoins. Some machines offer both services at the same time. The data relates to the long-term growth period in the BTM sector, with the US leading the trend, as there are more and more locations and formats.

In June, a total of 150 installations were recorded, about 6 per day. General Bytes recently overtook Genesis Coin as the producer with the largest number of installed BTMs. The US currently has more than half of the world's BTM - 3229, with a new pilot program this month that takes machines to the Circle Circle stores in Arizona and Nevada.

Increasing competition in the BTM market is likely to reduce the fees charged to users, which are usually noticeably higher than internet alternatives.

Technical Overview:

At the time of the writing of the analysis, the BTC/USD pair has made a new yearly high at the level of $12,908 and the second WR2 level has been reached. The momentum increased accordingly during the move up, but it might be the last wave upwards in the cycle, the wave 5. The trend on the larger timeframe is still up and there are no signs of any trend reversal yet, but the uptrend is very mature and might correct to the downside any time soon.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $14,368

WR2 - $12,738

WR1 - $12,143

Weekly Pivot - $10,500

WS1 - $9,956

WS2 - $8,295

WS3 - $7,678

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larget correction is just around the corner, as all the major impulsive waves have been completed.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on June 26. Bears continue to form a downward correction on the pound in the absence

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

Pound buyers need to keep the level of 1.2674, and the formation of a false breakdown, after updating the yesterday's low, will be the first signal to open long positions in the pound. However, the main movement will depend on the speech of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, which is scheduled for today. Buyers of GBP/USD will be aiming for a return to a resistance of 1.2712, which will lead to the renewal of weekly highs in the 1.2756 and 1.2799 areas, where I recommend taking profits. In case the pound further declines, it is best to return to long positions to rebound from a low of 1.2633.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

Bears will try to break below the support of 1.2674, which will increase the pressure on the pound and lead to a renewal of lows around 1.2633 and 1.2596, where I recommend taking profits. If Mark Carney suddenly talks about lowering the interest rate, the pressure on GBP/USD may increase much more. If in the first half of the day the bulls form an upward correction, you can count on selling from a resistance of 1.2712, provided a false breakdown is formed, or a rebound from a high of 1.2756.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a downward correction in the pair.

Bollinger bands

The upward correction will be limited to the middle of the channel in the area of 1.2712 and the upper boundary of the indicator in the area of 1.2756.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on June 26. The euro may continue to move down, but this requires a breakdown of 1.1348

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Yesterday, buyers of the euro made several attempts to save the situation, but the correction was obvious. At the moment, it is best to return to long positions on a false breakdown from the level of 1.1348, after updating yesterday's low, or to rebound from a larger support of 1.1317. The main task of buyers will be to return to a resistance of 1.1374, which will keep the lower limit of the current ascending channel and continue the euro's growth to highs of 1.1400 and 1.1430, where I recommend to take profit.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

The Fed chairman did not say anything new yesterday, so the downward correction in the euro continued. Currently, it is best to consider short positions after the formation of a false breakdown in the resistance area of 1.1374, or after a successful breakdown and consolidation below a support of 1.1348, which will lead EUR/USD to new lows of 1.1317 and 1.1286, where I recommend taking profits. In case of growth above 1.1374, the 1.1400 area will be a good level for opening short positions.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade moved below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the formation of a downward correction. The pair's growth to the moving average will be a signal to open new short positions.

Bollinger bands

An upward correction will be limited to the middle of the channel in the area of 1.1374 and the upper boundary of the indicator in the area of 1.1395.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Trading plan for EURUSD for June 26, 2019

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Technical outlook:

The EURUSD pair might have formed an intermediary top at 1.1412 levels, the interday high for June 25, 2019. The single currency pair might be ready for a deeper correction towards 1.1270/90 levels in the coming trading sessions before it could resume its uptrend further. It is expected to counter-trend rally in the next 1-2 trading sessions towards 1.1380/1.1400 levels before continuing further lower. It could offer a potential short entry against 1.1412 levels, targeting lower towards the Fibonacci 0.618 support seen at 1.1270 levels respectively. Strong support is now in place at 1.1800 levels and EURUSD is expected to continue rally till prices remain above that. Also note that the entire wave structure from 1.1107 through 1.1412 levels looks to be in 5 waves, a potential leading diagonal and that the corrective drop could be much deeper than 1.1270 levels as discussed above. In either case, the support seen at 1.1117 levels should remain intact.

Trading plan:

Aggressive traders sell @ 1.1380/1.1400 stop above 1.1412, target 1.1270

Conservative traders remain flat for now and look to buy lower @ 1.1270.

Good luck!

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for June - 2019

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With the break back below important short-term support at 135.91 GBP/JPY can go both ways. The downside is vulnerable again and a final dip closer to 134.50 cannot be ruled out to complete wave 2.

Only a direct break back above minor resistance at 137.13 will confirm that wave 2 already has completed and wave 3 is developing, for a rally towards 141.14 as the first solid hurdle on the way higher.

R3: 137.13

R2: 136.83

R1: 136.54

Pivot: 136.19

S1: 135.75

S2: 135.39

S3: 134.97

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 135.86 was hit and we will only buy GBP at 134.65 or upon a break above 137.13

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 26 - 2019

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We expect that minor support in the 121.50 - 121.70 area will be able to protect the downside for the next impulsive rally towards 123.18 and 124.16 as the next short-term hurdles towards the upside. A break above 122.48 confirms the next impulsive rally has begun towards 123.18.

Only an unexpected break below support at 120.92 will invalidate our bullish outlook.

R3: 123.75

R2: 123.18

R1: 122.48

Pivot: 121.85

S1: 121.70

S2: 121.50

S3: 121.92

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 121.98 with our stop placed at 120.85

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Technical analysis: Important intraday Level For EUR/USD, June 26,2019

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When the European market opens, some economic data such as German GfK Consumer Climate will be released. The US will publish such ecenomic data as Crude Oil Inventories, Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m, Goods Trade Balance, Durable Goods Orders m/m, and Core Durable Goods Orders m/m. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1424.Strong Resistance: 1.1417.Original Resistance: 1.1406. Iner Sell Area: 1.1395. Target Inner Area: 1.1368. Inner Buy Area: 1.1341. Original Support: 1.1330. Strong Support: 1.1319. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1312. (Disclaimer)

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Technical analysis: Important intraday level for USD/JPY, June 26,2019

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Today Japan will not release any economic data but the US will publish such economic data as Crude Oil Inventories, Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m, Goods Trade Balance, Durable Goods Orders m/m, and Core Durable Goods Orders m/m. So, there is a probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Resistance. 3:107.96. Resistance. 2:107.75. Resistance. 1:107.54. Support. 1:107.27. Support. 2:107.06. Support. 3:106.85. (Disclaimer)

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Forecast for EUR/USD on June 26, 2019

EUR/USD

On Tuesday, the euro fell to a Fibonacci level of 76.4% (1.1356) against weakened US economic data; sales of new homes for May fell from 679 thousand to 626 thousand, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index for June fell from 131.3 to 121.5, business activity in Richmond's manufacturing sector decreased from 5 to 3. This is indirectly confirmed by our speculative nature of the market in the previous week. As a result, the probability of a price reversal to the target level of 1.1235 increases. For the development of lower prices, you need to gain a foothold below the MACD line on the four-hour chart (1.1318).

Another scenario, which we considered earlier – continued growth after a correction to the Fibonacci level of 76.4% still has potential. Here, a technical basis could be a reversal of the Marlin oscillator signal line from the boundary with a territory of negative numbers on a four-hour scale. After the price overcomes yesterday's peak to the target level of 1.1445 (Fibonacci level 61.8%) will already be close.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on June 26, 2019

GBP/USD

On Tuesday, the pound sterling met a strong resistance level of February this year - with a mid-month reversal zone, where it was also hampered by the daily balance line. The pound fell to close below the MACD line on the four-hour chart. The consolidation of the Marlin oscillator signal line on H4 was broken down. The pair's nearest target is now the level of 1.2610 - a low of August 15, 2018. Overcoming this level opens a second target at 1.2530 - a low of December 14 2018.

The Marlin oscillator signal line on the daily chart is still in the growth zone, which indicates the latent power of the bulls, which can occur if there is strong positive news. The probability of such an event in the technical assessment is around 20%.

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Forecast for USD / JPY pair on June 26, 2019

USD / JPY pair

On Tuesday, the USD/JPY pair had an upward reversal from the price channel line with the support of double convergence on the daily chart and the convergence forming on the four-hour chart. On H4, the Marlin oscillator signal line is already in the growth zone. In order to confirm the price signal, it has to go above the MACD line at 107.64 and the target for growth is the nested line of the daily price channel in the region of 109.02.

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EUR/GBP approaching resistance, potential drop!

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EURGBP is approaching resistance where we might see a drop in price.

Entry: 0.8981

Why it's good : Horizontal swing high resistance, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss : 0.9055

Why it's good : Horizontal swing high resistance

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EUR/GBP approaching resistance, potential drop!

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EURGBP is approaching resistance where we might see a drop in price.

Entry: 0.8981

Why it's good : Horizontal swing high resistance, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss : 0.9055

Why it's good : Horizontal swing high resistance

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NZD/USD approaching resistance, potential reversal!

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Price is approaching its resistance at 0.6674 where a reversal to its support is expected.

Entry : 0.6674

Why it's good :100% Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance

Take Profit : 0.6625

Why it's good : 23.6% & 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support

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USD/JPY reaching resistance, potential drop!

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Price is approaching resistance where we might see a drop in price.

Entry : 107.828

Why it's good : horizontal overlap resistance,50% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension

Take Profit : 107.235

Why it's good :61.8% Fibonacci Extension, horizontal overlap support

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EUR / USD h4 vs #USDX h4 vs GBP / USD h4. Comprehensive analysis of movement options from June 26, 2019. Analysis of APLs

What will happen to the main currency instruments EUR / USD h4 vs #USDX h4 vs GBP / USD h4 on Monday, June 26, 2019? Here is a comprehensive analysis of movement options.

Minuette (H4)

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US Dollar Index

Starting June 26, 2019, the development of the dollar index movement #USDX will be conditioned by the working out and directing the breakdown of the equilibrium zone boundaries ( 95.82 <-> 96.10 <-> 96.32 ) of the Minuette operating scale. The details of the movement within this zone are shown in the animation graph.

The breakdown of the resistance level at 96.32 (upper limit of the ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork) together with the breakdown of the warning line LWL38.2 ( 96.40 ) of the Minuette operational scale fork will guide the development of the dollar index movement to the borders of the 1/2 Median Line Minute channel ( 96.70 <- > 96.87 <-> 97.07 ).

The breakdown of support level at 95.82 (lower limit of ISL61.8 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork ) -> option to continue the development of the downward movement of #USDX to the targets -> warning line LWL61.8 ( 95.70 ) of the Minuette operational scale fork <-> warning line LWL100.0 Minute ( 95.00 ) <-> FSL Minuette ending line ( 94.90 ). The details of the #USDX movement look at the animated graphics.

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Euro vs US Dollar

Starting June 26, 2019, the development of the movement of the single European currency EUR / USD will be determined by working out and directing the breakdown of the equilibrium zone ( 1.1425 <-> 1.1395 <-> 1.1360 ) of the Minuette operational scale fork. The options for movement within this channel are shown in the animated graphic.

The breakdown of the support level at 1.1360 (lower limit of the ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork) -> continued development of the downward movement of the single European currency to the borders of the 1/2 Median Line channel ( 1.1335 <-> 1.1310 <-> 1.1290 ) and the equilibrium zone ( 1.1310 <-> 1.1275 <-> 1.1250 ) of the Minuette operational scale fork .

In the case of the breakdown of the upper boundary ISL61.8 ( level resistance 1.1425 ) equilibrium zone of Minuette operational scale fork. The upward movement EUR / USD can proceed to the final line FSL Minute ( 1.1530 ).

The details of the EUR / USD movement are presented in an animated graphic .

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Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar

Starting from June 26, 2019, GBP / USD currency movement will also be determined by working out and directing the breakdown of the equilibrium zone ( 1.2715 <-> 1.2780 <-> 1.2845 ) of the Minuette operational scale. The options for movement within this zone are shown in the animated graphic.

In the case of the breakdown of the lower limit ISL38.2 ( level of support 1.2715 ), balancing of Minuette operational scale fork will be possible to continue the downward movement of the GBP/USD currency to the boundaries of the channel 1/2 Median Line ( 1.2685 <-> 1.2652 <-> 1.2620) and the equilibrium zone ( 1.2620 <-> 1.2575 <-> 1.2530 ) of the Minuette operational scale fork .

The breakdown of the upper limit of ISL61.8 ( resistance level 1.2845 ) of the Minuette operational scale fork -> the development of the movement of GBP / USD to the reaction line RL100.0 Minute ( 1.2945 ). The details of the GBP / USD movement are presented in an animated graphic.

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The review was compiled without taking into account the news background, the opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers and is not a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

The formula for calculating the dollar index is

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

where power ratios correspond to the weights of currencies in the basket:

Euro - 57.6% ;

Yen - 13.6%;

Pound sterling - 11.9% ;

Canadian dollar - 9.1%;

Swedish krona - 4.2%;

Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula gives the index value to 100 on the starting date - March 1973, when major currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs on June 26

Forecast for June 26:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1452, 1.1428, 1.1404, 1.1388, 1.1353, 1.1334 and 1.1305. Here, we continue to follow the development of the ascending structure of June 18. At the moment, the price is in the correction. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the passage of the price of the noise range 1.1388 - 1.1404. In this case, the target is 1.1428, wherein consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.1452. After reaching which, we expect a departure to the correction.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.1353 - 1.1334. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 1.1305. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure of June 18, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1405 Take profit: 1.1428

Buy 1.1430 Take profit: 1.1452

Sell: 1.1353 Take profit: 1.1335

Sell: 1.1332 Take profit: 1.1305

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2906, 1.2842, 1.2798, 1.2745, 1.2668, 1.2636 and 1.2608. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of June 18. We expect a continuation of the upward movement after the breakdown of the level of 1.2745. In this case, the first target is 1.2798. Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.2798 - 1.2842. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to movement to the potential target - 1.2906. Upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.2668 - 1.2636. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.2608. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the ascending structure of June 18.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2745 Take profit: 1.2798

Buy: 1.2800 Take profit: 1.2842

Sell: 1.2668 Take profit: 1.2636

Sell: 1.2634 Take profit: 1.2608

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9847, 0.9824, 0.9769, 0.9738, 0.9688 and 0.9651. Here, we are following the development of the downward cycle of June 19. At the moment, the price is in the correction zone. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9688. Here, the potential target is 0.9651. Meanwhile, from the range of 0.9688 - 0.9651, we expect to go to the correction zone.

Consolidated movement is possible in the range of 0.9738 - 0.9769. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the development of a protracted correction. Here, the goal is 0.9824. The range 0.9824 - 0.9847 is a key support for the downward structure, and before it, we expect the initial conditions for the upward cycle.

The main trend is the downward cycle of June 19, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9738 Take profit: 0.9767

Buy : 0.9773 Take profit: 0.9824

Sell: Take profit:

Sell: 0.9686 Take profit: 0.9653

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 108.12, 107.77, 107.54, 106.92, 106.65, 106.35 and 105.94. Here, the downward structure of June 17 is considered as a medium-term initial conditions. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 106.92, here the target is 106.65. The breakdown of which, in turn, will allow us to count on the movement to the level of 106.35. Consolidation is near this value. For now, the potential value for the bottom, we considered the level of 105.94. After reaching which, we expect to go into correction.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 107.54 - 107.77. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the potential target is 108.12. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend: the downward cycle of June 17.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 107.55 Take profit: 107.76

Buy : 107.78 Take profit: 108.10

Sell: 106.92 Take profit: 106.65

Sell: 106.62 Take profit: 106.37

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3277, 1.3235, 1.3208, 1.3154, 1.3137, 1.3104 and 1.3069. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of June 18. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the price passes the noise range 1.3154 - 1.3137. In this case, the target is 1.3104, wherein consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.3069. After reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.3208 - 1.3235. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.3277. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend - the downward structure of June 18.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3208 Take profit: 1.3233

Buy : 1.3237 Take profit: 1.3275

Sell: 1.3137 Take profit: 1.3106

Sell: 1.3102 Take profit: 1.3070

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For the pair Australian dollar / US dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.7039, 0.7012, 0.6972, 0.6959, 0.6927, 0.6913, 0.6892 and 0.6881. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of June 18. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the price passes the noise range 0.6959 - 0.6972. In this case, the target is 0.7012, wherein consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.7039. After reaching which, we expect a consolidation, as well as a rollback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.6927 - 0.6913. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.6892. The range 0.6892 - 0.6881 is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure on June 18.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6972 Take profit: 0.7012

Buy: 0.7014 Take profit: 0.7036

Sell : 0.6927 Take profit : 0.6914

Sell: 0.6910 Take profit: 0.6892

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 123.27, 122.97, 122.53, 122.36, 121.97, 121.78 and 121.52. Here, we are following the formation of the ascending structure of June 21. At the moment, the price is in correction. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after passing by the price of the noise range 122.36 - 122.53. In this case, the goal is 122.97, wherein consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 123.27. After reaching which, we expect a rollback to the bottom.

Consolidated movement is expected in the range of 121.97 - 121.78. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 121.52. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the formation of potential for the top of June 21, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 122.36 Take profit: 122.50

Buy: 122.56 Take profit: 122.95

Sell: 121.97 Take profit: 121.80

Sell: 121.76 Take profit: 121.52

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 138.04, 137.60, 137.30, 136.92, 136.40, 135.77 and 135.32. Here, we continue to monitor the formation of the potential for the top of June 18. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 136.40. Here, the first goal is 136.92. The breakdown of which should be accompanied by a pronounced movement to the level – 137.30. Meanwhile, in the range of 137.30 – 137.60, there is a short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 138.04. The movement to which, is expected after the breakdown of the level of 137.60.

The level of 135.77 is a key support for the top. Its price passage will have to form a downward structure. Here, the potential target is 135.32.

The main trend is the formation of potential for the top of June 18, the stage of deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 136.45 Take profit: 136.90

Buy: 136.92 Take profit: 137.30

Sell: 135.75 Take profit: 135.40

Sell: 135.28 Take profit: 134.75

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD Rally: Further progress or decline?

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The euro quite quickly overcame the highs one after another when paired with the dollar. The "news" so hastily climbed up that they did not pay attention to the deterioration of the German business climate and did not take into account the fact that the German economy is in a depressed state. On Tuesday, market participants still looked at the gloomy data from France, and the euro stopped its growth. Although the reason, perhaps, was not a report on production activity, but the dollar itself, which, closer to the second half of the day, made attempts at recovery.

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According to the Dallas Federal Reserve, the uncertainty about trade wars and global growth really creates headwinds for the US economy. At the same time, it is too early to talk about monetary easing. The derivatives market is confident of a 25bp decrease in the rate at the July meeting and gives 45% to the fact that the rate will be reduced by 50bp It is clear that someone is mistaken, but who?

According to Donald Trump, the Fed is mistaken, and also does not know what it is doing. The US president attacked Jerome Powell with a new criticism after a short break. Trump compared the Fed with a stubborn child, and if it were not for the regulator, then the Dow Jones could have been thousands of points higher, and GDP could be accelerated to 4% or even 5%. There was a time when the markets were in a fever from such statements, now they have developed immunity. However, it's hard not to admit thatTrump's persistent desires will come to life sooner or later. The US president has set a goal to lower rates and weaken the dollar, and he also wants to stock markets to rally. The S&P 500 is at the highest level in the entire history, FOMC members admit monetary policy adjustments, and the dollar index for the week by June 21 showed the worst performance since January last year.

As for the possible rate cut at the July meeting, on Tuesday the picture should become clearer. Traders are waiting for Jerome Powell's speech as well as those of his colleagues. High-ranking financial officials will comment on policy easing.

Meanwhile, the euro's confident pace leads to a plethora of bullish forecasts. The assumption that the US central bank will begin to cut rates more aggressively than the ECB allows JP Morgan analysts to expect the EUR/USD rate to rise to 1.15. Nordea expects the main pair to approach the level of 1.17 by the end of the year. In addition, the bank seriously believe in the stabilization of macroeconomic statistics for the eurozone. In Bloomberg, we saw that the course of the pair forms a "bullish" model. Ahead of the single currency key resistance in the area of 1.1380 and 1.1416. A break through of these marks will mean that the euro is able to re-test the highs of the current year. There will be growth potential to double the top of 2018 in the area of 1.1815–54.

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If we talk about the trade conflict between the US and China, the markets are waiting for tips from the G20 summit. From further confrontation, including imposing duties on all Chinese imports, protective assets will be in an advantageous position. At this time, the correction of stock indices will be restrained by belief in an aggressive weakening of the Fed policy in July. A breakthrough in the negotiations will boost the US dollar due to the growth in yield of Treasuries. The absence of a deal and at the same time waiting for its conclusion in the near future will lead to a short-term consolidation of the EUR/USD pair.

USD/JPY

Barclays believes that the likelihood of the resumption of the US-China talks is already priced in.

The yen rose to its highest level since January, and Treasury bills rose after Iran announced the end of diplomatic relations with the United States, as America introduced new sanctions. The USD/JPY rate fell below 107 on Tuesday, the next target could be 106.60. Potentially, there are risks for the pair to decrease to 106 and even to the lowest of that of the flash-crash of this year - below 105.

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The recovery potential of the USD/JPY pair quotes is limited, since many players are prepared to sell. The dollar is likely to decline, unless markets notice positive changes in the Washington and Beijing talks.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. June 25th. Results of the day. Boris Johnson opposes a second referendum

4-hour timeframe

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The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 59p - 131p - 96p - 104p - 59p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 90p (93p).

On Tuesday, June 25, the British pound sterling also started to adjust, and the pound/dollar pair worked off the Kijun-sen critical line. Meanwhile, the main candidate for the post of the Conservative Party leader and British prime minister Boris Johnson said that he would lead the country out of the EU before November 1, and no matter in what way. That is, Johnson is mentally prepared for a "hard" Brexit and states that the British government must keep the promise it made to the people. Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn is in favor of holding a second referendum, because he believes that negotiations with the EU are stalled, the current agreement does not suit most MPs, a hard Brexit will be destructive for the economy. Parliament rejects May's "deal" and the hard scenario. Johnson also believes that if the new prime minister cannot "translate the dream into reality," that is, implement Brexit before October 31, the consequences will be devastating for both the Conservative Party and the UK. Watching developments in the UK is thus becoming more and more interesting. The pound sterling is the only thing that is sad, which could return to a downward low tomorrow if bears manage to push the critical line on the first attempt. All the chances for this are available. If Jerome Powell doesn't stun the markets with yet more dovish messages tonight, then the pound will not have any special grounds for further growth.

Trading recommendations:

The pound/dollar currency pair started the downward correction, keeping the upward trend. Thus, the rebound from the Kijun-sen line will make it possible to buy the pound again with the target level of 1.2789.

It will be possible to buy the US currency when the pair has consolidated below the Kijun-sen line. In this case, the downward trend may resume with the first targets at the levels of 1.2610 and 1.2582.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com