Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs on June 8

Forecast for June 8:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1429, 1.1365, 1.1299, 1.1254 and 1.1170. Here, the price is in the correction zone from the upward structure on May 25. A short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.1365 - 1.1429, from here, we expect a reversal in correction.

A short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.1299 - 1.1254. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. In this case, the target is 1.1170. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the local structure for the top of May 25, the correction stage

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1365 Take profit: 1.1420

Buy: Take profit:

Sell: 1.1299 Take profit: 1.1255

Sell: 1.1252 Take profit: 1.1180

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2845, 1.2777, 1.2685, 1.2642, 1.2566 and 1.2515. Here, we are following the ascending structure of May 25. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2777. In this case, the target is 1.2845. Upon reaching this level, we expect a downward pullback.

A short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.2685 - 1.2642. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.2566. The range of 1.2566 - 1.2515 is the key support for the top. We expect the initial conditions for the downward cycle to be formed to the level of 1.2515.

The main trend is the local ascending structure of May 25

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2777 Take profit: 1.2845

Buy: Take profit:

Sell: 1.2685 Take profit: 1.2644

Sell: 1.2640 Take profit: 1.2568

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9753, 0.9725, 0.9684, 0.9654, 0.9606, 0.9586, 0.9564 and 0.9541. Here, the price registered the expressed potential for the top of June 5. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9654. In this case, the target is 0.9684. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 0.9684 will lead to the development of a pronounced upward movement. In this case, the target is 0.9725. We consider the level of 0.9753 to be a potential value for the upward trend; upon reaching this level, we expect consolidation, as well as a downward pullback.

A short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 0.9606 - 0.9586. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. In this case, the target is 0.9564. This level is a key support for the top and the price passing this level will lead to the development of a downward movement. In this case, the first target is 0.9541 .

The main trend is building potential for the top of June 5

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9655 Take profit: 0.9682

Buy : 0.9686 Take profit: 0.9725

Sell: 0.9606 Take profit: 0.9587

Sell: 0.9584 Take profit: 0.9565

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 110.16, 109.87, 109.68, 109.24, 109.01, 108.72 and 108.50. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of May 29. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 109.68 - 109.87. The breakdown of the last level will lead to movement to a potential target - 110.16, from which we expect a downward pullback.

A short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 109.24 - 109.01. The breakdown of the last level will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 108.72. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 108.50, to which we expect the initial conditions for the downward cycle.

The main trend is the upward cycle of May 29

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 109.68 Take profit: 109.85

Buy : 109.88 Take profit: 110.14

Sell: 109.24 Take profit: 109.03

Sell: 108.98 Take profit: 108.73

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3634, 1.3579, 1.3510, 1.3452, 1.3371, 1.3340 and 1.3283. Here, we are following the development of the local downward cycle of May 29. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the price passes the noise range 1.3371 - 1.3340. In this case, the potential target is 1.3283, after which we expect consolidation, as well as an upward pullback.

A short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.3452 - 1.3510. The breakdown of the last value will lead to the development of an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3579. We consider the level 1.3634 to be the potential value for the top, to which we expect the initial conditions to be formed for the upward cycle.

The main trend is the local descending structure of May 29

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3452 Take profit: 1.3510

Buy : 1.3512 Take profit: 1.3578

Sell: 1.3340 Take profit: 1.3285

Sell: Take profit:

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.7132, 0.7073, 0.7011, 0.6902, 0.6850 and 0.6774. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of May 15. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.7011. In this case, the target is 0.7073. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.7132. Upon reaching which, we expect a downward pullback. However, it is most likely that the reversal to the correction will occur earlier than reaching the potential level, namely from the range 0.7011 - 0.7073.

A short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.6902 - 0.6850. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.6774. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure of May 15

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7011 Take profit: 0.7070

Buy: 0.7075 Take profit: 0.7130

Sell : 0.6902 Take profit : 0.6853

Sell: 0.6848 Take profit: 0.6780

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 124.77, 124.09, 123.42, 123.08, 122.59 and 121.85. Here, the price forms the local potential for the top of June 4. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 124.09. In this case, the first goal is 124.77. Price consolidation is near this level.

A short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 123.42 - 123.08. The breakdown of the last level will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 122.59. This level is a key support for the top and the price passing this level will lead to the formation of initial conditions for the downward cycle. Here the goal is 121.85.

The main trend is the formation by the local structure of June 4

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 124.10 Take profit: 124.70

Buy: Take profit:

Sell: 123.42 Take profit: 123.10

Sell: 123.06 Take profit: 122.60

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 142.25, 141.33, 140.68, 139.66, 138.62, 138.06 and 137.44 and 136.25. Here, the price drew up the local initial conditions for the upward movement of June 4. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 139.66. In this case, the target is 140.68. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 140.68 - 141.33. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 142.25. Upon reaching which, we expect a downward pullback.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 138.62 - 138.06. The breakdown of the latter level will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the potential target is 137.44. This level is a key support for the upward structure and its breakdown will lead to the development of a downward movement. In this case, the target is 136.25.

The main trend is the local ascending structure of June 4

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 139.67 Take profit: 140.68

Buy: 140.70 Take profit: 141.31

Sell: 138.62 Take profit: 138.08

Sell: 138.04 Take profit: 137.45

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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for June 8, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD has bounced from the upper channel line after the test and now is getting away from this level. The bulls have managed to push the price towards the short- term technical resistance zone located between the levels of 1.2747 - 1.2786 and the bulls might be getting ready to test this zone. The momentum is still strong and positive, but the market conditions on H4 time frame are now extremely overbought, so please keep an eye on the price developments around the level of 1.2747.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3258

WR2 - 1.2986

WR1 - 1.2861

Weekly Pivot - 1.2596

WS1 - 1.2454

WS2 - 1.2189

WS3 - 1.2084

Trading Recommendations:

On the GBP/USD pair the main trend is down, but the local up trend continues. The key long-term technical support has been recently violated (1.1983) and the new one is seen at the level of 1.1404. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate (1.1404). The market might have done a Double Top pattern at the level of 1.2645, so the price might move lower in the longer-term.

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GBP/USD: Intraday High and Low Projection For June 08, 2020

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The High Of The Day and Low Of The Day from the Central Bank Dealer Range (CBDR) today usually are formed at STDV 2-STDV 4 under normal market conditions, but sometimes the price can reach the STDV 5-STDV 6 during high volatility in the market. Here are the levels for today:

STDV 10 - 1.3132.

STDV 9 - 1.3091.

STDV 8 - 1.3050.

STDV 7 - 1.3009.

STDV 6 - 1.2968.

STDV 5 - 1.2927.

STDV 4 - 1.2886.

STDV 3 - 1.2845.

STDV 2 - 1.2804.

STDV 1 - 1.2763.

CBDR - 1.2722.

==================

CBDR - 1.2681.

STDV 1 - 1.2640.

STDV 2 - 1.2599.

STDV 3 - 1.2558.

STDV 4 - 1.2517.

STDV 5 - 1.2476.

STDV 6 - 1.2435.

STDV 7 - 1.2394.

STDV 8 - 1.2353.

STDV 9 - 1.2312.

STDV 10 - 1.2271.

Pay attention to the levels of confluence between today's & yesterday range at 1.2353, 1.2845 & the previous Day High 1.2731 with the Previous Day Low 1.2582. All these levels can be a potential turning point level.

(Disclaimer)

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EUR/USD: Intraday High and Low Projection For June 08, 2020

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The High Of The Day and Low Of The Day from the Central Bank Dealer Range (CBDR) today are usually formed at STDV 2-STDV 4 under normal market conditions, but sometimes the price can reach the STDV 5-STDV 6 during higher volatility in the market. Here are the levels for today:

STDV 10 - 1.1567.

STDV 9 - 1.1542.

STDV 8 - 1.1517.

STDV 7 - 1.1492.

STDV 6 - 1.1467.

STDV 5 - 1.1442.

STDV 4 - 1.1417.

STDV 3 - 1.1392.

STDV 2 - 1.1367.

STDV 1 - 1.1342.

CBDR - 1.1317.

==================

CBDR - 1.1292.

STDV 1 - 1.1267.

STDV 2 - 1.1242.

STDV 3 - 1.1217.

STDV 4 - 1.1192.

STDV 5 - 1.1167.

STDV 6 - 1.1142.

STDV 7 - 1.1117.

STDV 8 - 1.1092.

STDV 9 - 1.1067.

STDV 10 - 1.1042.

Pay attention to the level of confluence between today's & yesterday range at 1.1242 & the previous Day High 1.1384 with the Previous Day Low 1.1279. All these levels can be a potential turning point level.

(Disclaimer)

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on GBP / USD for June 8, 2020

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

Today, a downward pullback is possible after unsuccessfully testing the upper fractal 1.2730 (presented in a red dashed line) with the target of 1.2576 - a 23.6% pullback level (presented in a red dashed line). If this line is reached, the downward trend may continue with the target of 1.2482 - a 38.2% pullback level (presented in a red dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- Volumes - down;

- Candlestick analysis - down;

- Trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger Lines - down;

- Weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

Today, the price may begin to move downward with the target of 1.2576 - a 23.6% pullback level (presented in a red dashed line). If this line is reached, the downward trend may continue with the target of 1.2482 - a 38.2% pullback level (presented in a red dashed line).

Another possible scenario is an upward trend after reaching 1.2576 - a 23.6% retracement level (presented in a red dashed line) with the target at the upper fractal 1.2730 (presented in a red dashed line).

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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for June 8, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has hit the technical resistances zone located between the levels of 1.1347 - 1.1361 and made a Shooting Star candlestick pattern. This might be a signal for a potential pull-back or even a correction towards the level of 1.1236 or 1.1190. The key short-term technical support is still seen at the level of 1.1148. Please notice, the market has started coming off the overbought conditions, so the odds for the move down are now high.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1696

WR2 - 1.1546

WR1 - 1.1432

Weekly Pivot - 1.1266

WS1 - 1.1137

WS2 - 1.0969

WS3 - 1.0859

Trading Recommendations:

On the EUR/USD pair the main long term trend is down, but the local up trend continues. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336).

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for June 8, 2020:

Crypto Industry News:

On June 4, a new study by a number of Russian cryptographic exchanges revealed a significant increase in Bitcoin trade throughout Russia since March in connection with COVID-19.

According to RBC, representatives of Russian stock exchange offices, such as Binance, Garantex and EXMO, highlighted the increase in the number of users in Russia. This number is associated with an increase in trading volumes between March and June. Gleb Kostarev, head of the Binance representative office in Russia, explained that the number of registrations on their platform in April 2020 was twice as high as in December 2019.

"It is worth noting that the popularity of trading in futures contracts is growing among Russians. In April and May the volume of trading in these instruments was twice as high as in March and five times compared to January" - he added.

On the other hand, Sergei Mendelev, the founder of Garantex, explained that the increase in activity on cryptocurrency exchanges "is not associated with people who withdraw money from deposits or receive payments from the budget." That is why United Traders analyst Fedor Anaschenkov believes that isolation from the pandemic coronavirus was one of the factors leading to an increase in trade volume.

The EXMO crypto exchange has released some data explaining the sharp increase in Bitcoin trading volume. Their CEO, Sergey Zhdanov, said that activity on their site increased by about 15-20%, noting a 12% increase in Russian users. These figures were compared with the same period from March to May 2019.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair did not move much during the weekend as the price has been seen trading between the levels of $9,381- $9,822. The market is still bouncing from the ascending trend line support (marked in blue on chart) every time the price goes lower. It means, the bulls are still trying to push the price higher despite the overbought market conditions. For them any violation of the local low made after the sell-off ( th elow is located at the level of $9,158) would indicate the start of the corrective cycyle to the downside with a target seen at the level of $8,565.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $11,389

WR2 - $10,828

WR1 - $10,195

Weekly Pivot - $9,652

WS1 - $9,043

WS2 - $8,494

WS3 - $7.815

Trading Recommendations:

The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated. The key mid-term technical support is located at the level of $7,897.

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for June 8, 2020:

Crypto Industry News:

The US Federal Reserve branch in Philadelphia has released a new report warning of the potential effects of the Central Bank (CBDC) issuing digital currencies.

In the report, the Fed said that - after the introduction of CBDC - the central bank will become "a monopolist on deposits, attracting all deposits away from the commercial banking sector." According to the Fed, this monopolization may threaten the transformation of maturity dates. The Federal Reserve also states that in the event of a weakening of competition from commercial banks, the central bank must be particularly careful not to disturb the transformation of maturities.

The report also explains that central banks are not investment experts and currently rely on private investment banks to finance long-term projects. However, the study noted that the implementation of CBDC should not prevent investment banks from investing, as the central bank cannot invest alone in long-term projects, but must rely on the knowledge of investment banks.

Marshall Hayner, CEO and co-founder of the cryptocurrency company Metal, said he did not thin

k CBDC would threaten private banks. Metal is building a digital banking platform using stablecoins, which according to Hayner are precursors to CBDC. He said that the introduction of such currency is only a matter of time.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair has been consolidating under the upper channel line all weekend long. The lower boundary of the consolidation zone is located at the level of $246.94 and the lower one at $235.42. The last bounce was quite strong and if bears will not regain the control of the market soon, then the bulls will push the price towards last swing high seen at $253.00. The decreasing momentum supports the short-term bearish outlook for Ethereum and the next target for bears is seen at the level of $217.65 and $215.58.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $282.07

WR2 - $267.98

WR1 - $254.66

Weekly Pivot - $238.43

WS1 - $226.18

WS2 - $210.71

WS3 - $197.39

Trading Recommendations:

The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $288 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred. The next key technical support is seen at the level of $174.82.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on EUR / USD for June 8, 2020

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

Today, the downward trend may continue from the level of 1.1294 (closing of the Friday afternoon candle) with the target of 1.1208 - a 23.6% retracement level (presented in a red dashed line). There is a possibility that the price may continue to move down from this level with the target of 1.1099 - a 38.2% retracement level (presented in a red dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- Volumes - down;

- Candlestick analysis - down;

- Trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger Lines - down;

- Weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

Today, the price will continue to move down with the target of 1.1208 - a 23.6% retracement level (presented in a red dashed line). There is a possibility that the price may continue to move down from this level with the target of 1.1099 - a 38.2% retracement level (presented in a red dashed line).

Another possible scenario is an upward trend from 1.1208 - a 23.6% pullback level (presented in a red dotted line) with the target at the resistance line 1.1375 (presented in a white bold line).

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Overview and forecast for EUR/USD on June 8, 2020

Hello, dear colleagues!

Well, the first summer week was spent on a wave of risk sentiment and ended with a weakening of the US dollar across a wide range of the market. Investors' appetite for risk is indicated by the fact that safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss franc and Japanese yen were unclaimed and ended trading with losses against the US dollar. All other major currencies have strengthened quite decently. This is especially true for New Zealand and Australian dollars, which only further emphasizes the risk-taking mood of market participants.

The main currency pair EUR/USD closed trading on June 1-5 with strong growth, adding 1.74%. Before we go to the price charts, let's remember Friday's data on the US labor market.

According to the United States Department of Labor, the number of newly created jobs in non-agricultural sectors of the economy (Nonfarm Payrolls) increased by 2.509 million in May. Let me remind you that, according to the forecasts of economists, a further decline in employment was expected by eight million. The unemployment rate in the US also turned out to be better than expected at 15% and actually amounted to 13.3%. It is worth noting that the April figure was 14.7%. Can we assume that the labor market is recovering? Most likely, due to the resumption of business operations, this is exactly what is happening.

A fly in the ointment turned out to be an increase in average hourly wages, which did not meet expectations (forecast 1%) and reached the level of minus 1%. However, this indicator has always been the Achilles heel in labor reports and did not allow inflation to reach the target level of the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) of 2%.

Nevertheless, the May statistics on the labor market can be considered surprisingly strong. After all, nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate are the most important indicators of the American labor market. However, the surprise was caused not only by the good indicators for NFP and unemployment but also by the reaction of market participants to them.

Weekly

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Since weekly trading closed on Friday, the technical part of this article will traditionally start with the corresponding timeframe.

As can be clearly seen on the chart, a fairly strong growth of the pair was stopped by the 200 exponential moving average, which passes at 1.13081. The pair tested this move for a breakout, but bounced back from it and ended the week trading below the important level of 1.1300, at 1.1289. In no small part, this was also helped by good labor statistics from the United States, although it did not seem to make a proper impression on investors and, by and large, was again ignored.

From a technical point of view, a negative moment can be considered the closing of trading on June 1-5 below the significant level of 1.1300. And the positive was a confident exit up from the cloud of the Ichimoku indicator. It is possible that market participants have not yet fully realized the fact of the recovery of the US labor market and will continue to playback Friday's statistics. At least, the probability of a rollback to the broken upper border of the Ichimoku cloud, which passes at 1.1224, remains. The breakout of 200 EMA and the closing of weekly trading above the most important psychological and technical level of 1.1500 will finally convince you of the bullish scenario.

Daily

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The candle for June 5 can be considered a reversal. First, it was formed in the form of a "shooting star" candle analysis model. Second, it appeared after an unsuccessful attempt to break through the sellers' resistance at 1.1361. If the market takes these factors into account, the pair will begin to adjust, and the targets of a possible pullback will be the levels of 1.1257, 1.1235. The longer-term goals of the probable EUR/USD adjustment should be expected at 1.1200 and 1.146.

The bullish scenario will only continue if Friday's "shooting star" candle is absorbed and the day's trading closes above Friday's highs of 1.1383.

H4

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On the four-hour chart, a bearish diver was broken, but there was also a reversal pattern of Japanese candles, which is highlighted, and after which the quote began to decline.

Given the technical picture on the considered timeframes, as well as positive labor statistics from the United States, it is reasonable to assume that the euro/dollar pair may go for a correction. Perhaps before that, the euro bulls will once again try to go on the offensive, which will be unsuccessful. If this happens and we see reversal candlestick signals in the area of 1.1343-1.1383, I recommend selling the euro/dollar with a stop above 1.1383 and goals in the area of 1.1260-1.1200. If it is fixed at 1.1200, the decline will continue to the price zone of 1.146-1.136.

Despite the probability of a corrective pullback, the EUR / USD pair is in an upward trend, so purchases after declines to 1.1250, 1.1220, 1.1200 are still considered the main trading idea at the moment. In the case of a deeper pullback, it is worth looking at the opening of long positions near 1.1165.

If you look at the economic calendar, many interesting and important reports are expected this week. However, the main event of trading on June 8-12 will be the Fed's decision on rates, which will be announced on Wednesday, June 10. In addition to the FOMC decision, updated economic forecasts will also be published, and at 19:30 (London time), the Federal Reserve will hold a press conference, which will be held by the head of the US Central Bank, Jerome Powell. And the main event of the day today will be the speech of ECB President Christine Lagarde, which is scheduled for 14: 45 (London time).

Have a good start to the week!

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Markets are filled with demand for risk, while the pound and euro are moving in opposite directions; Overview of EUR and

OPEC + countries have reached an agreement on the extension of restrictions on the reduction of oil production, a decline of 9.7 million barrels per day will last until the end of July, which is more than the originally planned reduction of 7.7 million. The Monitoring Committee will meet every month until December, besides, OPEC + will oblige countries that have not fully fulfilled the terms of the April agreement to fully fulfill their obligations by September.

The day after the meeting, Saudi Aramco sharply increased selling prices, the monthly growth was the highest over the past 20 years. As a result, the oil price also sharply increased. On Monday morning, Brent futures for August execution exceeded $ 43 per barrel, reaching a three-month high. Thus, one gets the impression that the official end of the "coronavirus recession" has been launched and now only growth is waiting for the global economy.

This conclusion is being pushed by the latest CFTC report. The long position in yen declined by 272 million, the long gold position also declined, which, together with the incredible growth of the US labor market, should indicate a steady resumption of economic activity.

EUR/USD

The euro lost some ground by Friday's close, but this was not due to the weakness of the euro, but to the reaction of the markets to the unexpectedly strong US employment report. At the same time, the reaction was short and unclear, as the ECB's support for the European currency was stronger than market expectations.

At Thursday's meeting, the ECB increased its asset repurchase program by 600 billion. euros, which was higher than the projected 500 billion. The PEPP program is extended until at least June 2021, and the main payments with an upcoming maturity from PEPP will be reinvested at least until the end of 2022. .

However, most experts agree that the ECB, after a short break, will announce further measures to expand the repurchase program. The reason for such confidence lies directly in the ECB forecast. According to which the recovery of GDP, even under an optimistic scenario, will catch up with the trend calculated in March for at least 3 years, and inflation will return to the levels of the beginning of the year only by the end of 2021. The ECB's balance sheet resumes rapid growth.

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Markets liked the ECB's decision - European stock indexes added an average of about 7% over 2 days.

The currency exchange traders, as follows from the CFTC report, remain optimistic about the euro. The net long position increased by more than $ 1 billion for the reporting week, and although the estimated level is behind the spot, the direction of the euro to the upside in the long run is certain.

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It can be noted that with the euro's rapid decline in March, the estimated fair price remained at levels higher than at the end of 2019, that is, from the point of view of the long-term goals of the major players, the euro was supposed to resume growth in 2020. The Corona-crisis slowed down this process, but did not reverse it, and the continuation of the growth of the euro is the most likely scenario in the long run. From the point of view of technical analysis, EUR/USD is ready to break through the resistance level of 1.1494, you can buy at the breakdown of 1.1383. On the other hand, a short-term correction to the support of 1.1210/20 is slightly unlikely. In the second case, you need to wait for the formation of the local bottom and signs of continued growth.

GBP/USD

The GfK Consumer Confidence Index continues its downward trend, declining to -36p in May, which is only 3 points higher than the historical record in 2008. The consumers remain negative about the state of their finances and the broader economic picture for the coming year.

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As for the CFTC report, the pound looks like a clear outsider against most G10 currencies, especially when compared with the euro. After a short stabilization period, the net short position increased by $ 1.112 billion, which is a very strong drop, indicating that investors expect the pound to weaken. The estimated price is confidently directed downwards.

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Everything indicates that it is necessary to look for a sale opportunity. A short-term impulse may end in the zone 1.2760/80, or extend to the trend line 1.2830/40, after which the pound will turn downwards.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for June 8, 2020

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GB/JPY rallied nicely into our expected target at 139.07 (the peak was seen at 139.77) with the target for red wave iii fulfilled, we should now expecte a correction in red wave iv to unfolding in the coming days. This correction will ideally dip into support in the 137.10 - 137.60 area before the next impulsive rally should be expected.

We also have a good idea how red wave iv will unfold due to the alternation principle. As red wave ii was a deep simple zig-zag correction, we expect red wave iv to be complex in nature and a shallow correction only correcting a minor part of red wave iii. The 23.6% correction is seen at 137.60, while the 38.2% correction is seen at 136.29.

R3: 139.77

R2: 139.45

R1: 139.07

Pivot: 138.78

S1: 138.15

S2: 137.82

S3: 137.60

Trading recommendation:

We are long GBP from 131.95 and we will take 50% profit here at 139.07 for a nice 712 pips profit and keep our stop at 135.05 for the final 50%.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 8, 2020

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EUR/JPY rallied nice into our wave iii/ target at 124.26 (it peaked at 124.43), with wave iii/ in place. It's now time for a correction in wave iv/. We already have a good idea how, this corretion will unfold and the reason for that is, the shape of wave ii/. Wave ii/ was a simple and deep zig-zag correction and the alternation principle tells us, that wave iv/ then should be small and only correct between 23.6% - 38.2% of wave iii/, which gives us a target area between 120.96 (38.2%) to 122.28 (23.6%). But because wave ii/ was simple, we also should expect wave iv/ to be complex in nature, making it hard to trade and the risk of getting stopped out of any trade is high.

R3: 124.70

R2: 124.43

R1: 124.00

Pivot: 123.51

S1: 123.23

S2: 122.68

S3: 122.28

Trading recommendation:

We sold EUR at 124.20 and we will move our stop lower to break-even and take profit at 122.35.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on June 8 (analysis of yesterday's deals). Pound continues to strengthen its position

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

The pound's next growth against the US dollar is more likely connected with the greenback's weakness than with the sterling's strength itself, however, we must pay tribute, the pound really enjoys support even without any reason. There is no progress in trade negotiations between the UK and the EU yet, namely they will set the pair's direction in the second half of the year. There are no good economic reports. Buyers of the pound are looking at the resistance of 1.2729, consolidating on it will be a clear signal for continuing the bullish trend with renewing highs in the areas of 1.2798 and 1.2840, where I recommend taking profits. In case GBP/USD falls this morning, buyers will count on the support of 1.2657 and forming a false breakout there with a rebound from the moving averages. If there are no active purchases in this range, it is best to postpone long positions until the test of lows of 1.2581 and 1.2500, based on an upward correction of 30-40 points within the day.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

So far, sellers are still trying to act when approaching large levels of resistance, but they are not doing so well against the trend. The next task of the bears in the first half of the day is to keep the bulls above resistance 1.2729, where forming a false breakout will be a clear signal to open short positions, which will lead to returning GBP/USD to a rather interesting support level of 1.2657, where the moving averages also go. Consolidating below this range will increase the pressure on the pair and lead to dismantling stop orders of the bulls and a larger pound movement down to form a correction with the goal of a support test of 1.2581 and 1.2500, where I recommend taking profit. When breaking through resistance 1.2729, it is best to abandon short positions to test the high at 1.2798, or sell GBP/USD immediately for a rebound from a larger resistance 1.2840 based on a downward movement of 30-40 points by the end of the day.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates the continuation of the uptrend.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

A break of the upper border of the indicator at 1.2730 will lead to a new wave of pound growth. In case of a decrease in the pair, support will be provided by the lower border in the area of 1.2625.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-profit traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long nonprofit positions represent the total long open position of nonprofit traders.
  • Short nonprofit positions represent the total short open position of nonprofit traders.
  • The total non-profit net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-profit traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: plan for the European session on June 8 (analysis of yesterday's deals). Euro lost a number of positions after good

To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

On Friday, in my forecast for the afternoon, I drew attention to the probability of a false breakout of the level of 1.1358 and the pair's fall after the release of the report on the state of the US labor market, which happened. The bulls tried to return to the market from this level, where I advised you to open long positions, but nothing good has come of it yet. It should be noted that serious bullish momentum has not yet formed in this range. Forming a false breakout in the morning, which can only happen after good data on German industrial production, will unlikely be a signal to open long positions. However, a breakout and consolidation above the resistance of 1.1339 will be an equally important task for the bulls, which will lead to a larger bullish growth in the area of highs 1.1422 and 1.1459, where I recommend taking profits. In case pressure continues to weigh on the euro, and the German industry in April is unlikely to be able to show anything good, I recommend returning to long positions in EUR/USD only after updating a large support level of 1.1195, counting on a correction of 30-40 points within the day.

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To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Bears will try to maintain pressure on the euro, and for this, it is enough to break below the support level of 1.1281, the second test of which will probably happen today after the release of the German industrial production report for April, when the economy was in quarantine. Breakout of 1.1281 will push EUR/USD to the low of 1.1195, and further target will be support 1.1139, where I recommend taking profit. In addition, the bears need not to let the pair go above resistance 1.1339, where forming a false breakout will be an additional signal to open short positions. It is best to sell EUR/USD immediately on the rebound from the new weekly resistance in the area of 1.1422, counting on a correction of 25-30 points within the day.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out in the region of 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates a possible continuation of the downward correction in the pair.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

A break of the lower border of the indicator in the region of 1.1280 will increase pressure on the euro. A break of the upper border in the area of 1.1335 will lead to an attempt by the bulls to return to the market.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-profit traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long nonprofit positions represent the total long open position of nonprofit traders.
  • Short nonprofit positions represent the total short open position of nonprofit traders.
  • The total non-profit net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-profit traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on June 8, 2020

EUR/USD

Strong data on US employment came out last Friday. They came out so strong that they launched a ten-day anti-dollar trend. In May, 2.51 million (!) new jobs were created in the non-agricultural sector against a forecast of a decrease of 8.0 million, the general unemployment rate fell from 14.7% to 13.3% against a forecast of a fall to 19.7%. The euro closed the day with a decrease of 45 points. In case of overcoming the support of 1.1265, the price will drop to the next target level of 1.1200.

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The divergence on the Marlin oscillator has been reached on the four-hour chart, and the price could fall further. Target level of 1.1200 coincides with the support of the MACD line. This level turns out to be strong, overcoming it will pull down the euro to targets 1.1125, and possibly even 1.1020.

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To continue the growth, that is, launch an alternative scenario, the price needs to gain a foothold over 1.1342. Goals: 1.1416, 1.1495.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on June 8, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar is moving sideways at a target level of 0.6975 since Friday last week as well this morning. The sideways movement increased the technical divergence on the Marlin oscillator. We are waiting for the movement to the first support of 0.6830.

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The Marlin divergence has also developed on the four-hour chart, the signal line of the oscillator is attacking the border of the downward trend territory. If the price consolidates below 0.6830, the price will also go under the MACD indicator line, respectively, the fall will likely continue towards the lower target of 0.6680.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for USD/JPY on June 8, 2020

USD/JPY

The Japanese yen exceeded the target level of 109.50 on Friday, it attempts to consolidate above this level today. The final estimate of Japan's GDP for the first quarter was increased to -0.6% from -0.9% in the preliminary estimate. The balance of payments for April fell from 0.94 trillion. yen to 0.25 trillion, consumer spending in the first quarter fell by -0.8% against the forecast of -0.7%. But the Nikkei 225 is optimistic, adding 0.90% to the Asian session, since the S&P 500 grew 2.62% on excellent US employment data on Friday.

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We look forward to continuing the optimistic trend to the nearest target level of 110.83. A little higher at 111.32, is the upper line, the border of the price channel from the high of June 2015. The price is likely to turn into a medium-term decline in the range of 110.83-111.32.

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The price gathers strength at the level of 109.50 on the four-hour chart. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator develops in its own slightly downward tilted channel, and a signal line is set to turn up. We expect the price to continue growing.

If the price consolidates below the signal level of 109.18, it is likely for it to fall to a June 4 low at 108.63, which the MACD line is aiming for.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD/USD waiting for break of ascending trend line for further drop!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 0.69578

Reason for Entry: horizontal overlap support, 127.2% fibonacci extension and 61.8% fibonacci retracement

Take Profit: 0.68798

Reason for Take Profit: horizontal swing low support

Stop Loss: 0.70194

Reason for Take Profit: 78.6% fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/JPY testing resistance, potential reversal

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 140.810

Reason for Entry: horizontal overlap resistance, 100% fibonacci extension and 78.6% fibonacci retracement

Take Profit: 135.753

Reason for Take Profit: horizontal pullback support and 38.2% fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 143.060

Reason for Take Profit: 88.6% fibonacci retracement

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast and trading signals for the GBP/USD pair on June 8. COT report. Incomprehensible pound keeps the lead. Bulls

GBP/USD 1H

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The pound/dollar also traded with an increase last week, and could not even start a downward correction at the end of the week. The bulls were only allowed to pull down quotes from the highs of June 5 by 60 points. At the same time, the ascending channel acquired a more convincing appearance and a less strong angle of inclination. Thus, now quotes of the pair will be traded inside the channel with a greater degree of probability, and exit from it will mean the end of the upward trend. So far, the entire GBP/USD initiative remains in the hands of buyers. During the past week, all resistance levels were overcome, and at the same time, the highs from April 14 and 30 were 1.2642 and 1.2647. Thus, the bulls did not meet any serious resistance in their path. There is also an upward trend in the pair, which also indicates growth.

GBP/USD 15M

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There is not a single sign of a trend change on the 15-minute timeframe, not even the start of a correction. Both channels of linear regression are directed upward, so the trend in the short term is unambiguously upward.

COT Report

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The COT report for the British pound shows the exact opposite (from the euro) picture of what is happening. Professional players during the reporting week intensively reduced purchase contracts (-12,784 contracts), as well as increased sales contracts (+2,215). Nevertheless, the British currency has risen in price anyway and continues to rise in price (the COT report affects the days only until Tuesday inclusive, comes out with a three-day delay). Thus, in the last three trading days of the past week, the trend remained the same. The total number of open contracts for the reporting week is also in favor of Short (+9020; +4591). Thus, as we mentioned over the past week, the strengthening of European currencies raises a large number of questions. The latest COT report shows that the issues were not unfounded, and the growth of the euro and the pound is almost groundless. Based on this, we are even more waiting for a new downward trend for both major pairs.

The fundamental background for the British pound has not changed recently. At the end of last week, macroeconomic statistics from across the ocean could provide little support for the US currency. In the article on the euro/dollar, we assumed that it did, but, as we can see, the pound/dollar did not react to any of these reports. Therefore, most likely, buyers of the euro recorded a profit, but buyers of the pound did not. Thus, macroeconomic statistics remains openly in the background for market participants. No interesting news is expected from the UK in the first days of the new trading week, while we are still waiting for news on the most interesting topics from the US. It's even difficult to imagine which particular fundamental topic can turn the pair down, given the fact that it is now growing without any particular reason. It is unlikely that rallies and protests in the United States, which have no effect on the economy, will have such an impact on investors of the US currency. Thus, we recommend that at such an incomprehensible time, carefully monitor the technical data, as it is they that most accurately now reflect what is happening on the market.

There are two main scenarios as of June 8:

1) The initiative for the pound/dollar pair remains in the hands of buyers, so long positions remain relevant with targets near the level of 1.2800. Take Profit in this case will be about 140 points. As long as the pair remains within the rising channel, the bulls continue to take the initiative.

2) Sellers continue to remain in the shade and will be ready to return to the market if buyers release the pair below the rising channel. Short positions can be opened below the critical line (1.2560) with the target at the level of 1.2434, near which also lies the strong Senkou Span B line and the support area of 1.2403 - 1.2422. In this case, Take Profit will be about 120 points.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair on June 8. COT report. Market to focus on the Fed, Eurogroup meetings.

EUR/USD 1H

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The EUR/USD pair began to finally correct in the hourly timeframe on June 5. Nevertheless, since the pair's quotes went much higher than the ascending channel earlier, now they just returned to it. Thus, a correction is visible on the hourly chart, but no more. There is no talk of any change in trend. The immediate goal of the corrective movement is the lower line of the channel, near which the Kijun-sen line is located, which is critical. If these two barriers are overcome, then the bears will really be able to get involved in the fight and count on something serious. Recall that in addition to the upward channel, there are also two upward trend lines. Therefore, in the case of overcoming the upward channel, the price will aim for the first trend line.

EUR/USD 15M

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The picture finally changed a bit on the 15-minute timeframe. The lowest linear regression channel turned down, so a correction began for the pair. If the higher channel also turns down, this will be a significant reserve for the beginning of a downward trend.

COT Report

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The latest COT report showed what we did not expect to see. It turns out that professional traders did not increase purchase contracts during the reporting week, but closed contracts for sale in euros. Thus, the effect was similar. But market participants who use foreign exchange contracts for hedging risks and for operating activities frolicked for the reporting week. Opened new 20,000 contracts for the purchase and 30,000 contracts for the sale. As you can see, there was no effect from as much as +10000 thousand sales contracts. Thus, the situation was terrible. Despite the fact that the total number of net sales contracts increased by about 5,000, the euro showed the strongest growth. This further leads us to the idea that the euro's growth is somewhat random and may be completed in the near future.

The general fundamental background for the EUR/USD pair is fairly neutral. The macroeconomic background is still taken into account by traders insofar as, however, on Friday it can still be concluded that stronger than expected data from overseas supported the dollar. True, it can also be concluded that buyers simply recorded part of the profit at the end of the working week, which led to a pullback, but most importantly, the correction still began. No important publication of statistics in the EU and the US on Monday, just a report on industrial production in Germany. In general, traders will be interested in previous topics this week, which we will consider through the prism of technical analysis. The topic of the Cold War between China and the United States, the Federal Reserve meeting, the rallies and protests in the US, and the coordination of the EU countries on funding sources for a new package of assistance to the most affected segments of the economy from the coronavirus crisis. A Eurogroup meeting will also take place this week, during which the issue of financing the new Rescue Fund will be discussed. If the finance ministers of the EU member states again fail to come to an agreement and agree on all issues, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece will no longer receive any assistance for a certain period of time. The longer aid is delayed, the more severely the economies of these countries may suffer. This factor could potentially put pressure on the euro.

Based on the foregoing, we have two trading ideas for June 8:

1) It is possible for the EUR/USD pair to grow further with the goal of the resistance level of 1.1478. However, for this, the bulls need to continue to stay within the rising channel. Stop Loss levels can still be placed below the channel and gradually moved upward if the upward trend continues. A price rebound from the bottom of the channel or Kijun-sen line will be a signal to open new purchases. The potential Take Profit in this case is 180 points.

2) The second option involves pinning the EUR/USD pair under the ascending channel and under the Kijun-sen line, which will allow sellers to finally get involved in the game. In this case, you are advised to open sell positions with targets of 1.1147 (March 27 high) and 1.1045 (trend line). Potential Take Profit range from 90 to 200 points.

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Overview of the EUR/USD pair. June 8. The hit parade of unsubstantiated accusations of American politicians against China

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 81.6754

The EUR/USD currency pair starts on June 8 with a downward correction, which still started on the last trading day of the past week. We talked about the correction all last week, so it is very good that at least on Friday, traders decided to fix part of the profit on long positions. Now the main question is whether traders are going to resume buying the euro currency in the new week. As we have already seen in the "weekend" articles, there are no particularly good fundamental reasons for this. However, there were no good fundamental reasons for such strong growth in the euro. Thus, everything will depend, as always, on the mood of market participants, and technical analysis is designed to visualize it. Therefore, as long as the price is located above the moving average line, there are high chances of resuming the upward trend.

Meanwhile, protests and rallies in the US continue. On Saturday, June 6, major anti-racism rallies were held in Washington, as well as in some other major US cities. Again, there were pogroms. However, this time such inappropriate behavior was really an isolated case. Most of the meetings were held without any excesses. However, the police still had to block the approaches to the White House. Despite the fact that Saturday's rallies were the largest in all 12 days of protests, US President Donald Trump said that "the crowd was small, much smaller than expected". The US leader also thanked the National Guard, Secret Services, and police for "excellent work".

At the same time, Joseph Biden became the official presidential candidate of the Democratic Party, having secured the support of all the votes of the same party. "Together, we can win the battle for the soul of our nation," Biden wrote on Twitter. Recall that Biden was previously a Vice President in the administration of Barack Obama, and this is his third attempt to become President of the country.

Meanwhile, in the United States, of course, Donald Trump's party members have found something else to blame for China. According to Republican Senator Rick Scott, China is trying to "sabotage or slow down" the development of a vaccine against "coronavirus" in the United States. The Senator also said that he had proof of his words, but when asked what they were, he said that he could not discuss such topics. Thus, we continue to review the hit parade of unsubstantiated statements and accusations of American politicians against Beijing. Recall that earlier, Mike Pompeo and Donald Trump said that they have irrefutable evidence of China's guilt in the spread of the COVID-2019 virus, which they promised to present "a little later". "A little later" has long passed, and no one has seen the evidence. Now Senator Rick Scott claims that China is sabotaging the development of the vaccine. Also unsubstantiated. We are not saying that China is not doing anything like this, and is not to blame for anything, but without evidence, there is no faith in the words of Republican politicians. The Senator also said that if China creates a cure for the virus, they will not share it with the rest of the world. According to Scott, China "wants to dominate the rest of the world". "We have to make this vaccine. Unfortunately, we have evidence that Communist China is trying to sabotage or slow down its development in the West," the Senator said.

Well, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said this weekend that China's actions in Hong Kong are comparable to those of Nazi Germany during World War II. On the anniversary of the landing of American troops in Normandy (June 6, 1944), Pompeo said that Beijing's desire to establish total control over Hong Kong "is comparable to the actions of Nazi Germany". The Secretary of State echoes Rick Scott and says that China aims to "become the greatest country in the world". Pompeo also said that by seeking to establish control over Hong Kong, China is violating agreements with the UK, which is similar to Germany's actions against the rest of Europe.

At the same time, it is reported that the Chinese government is considering possible sanctions by Washington against China and Hong Kong. It is reported that if China is ready to cope with "normal" sanctions, then the possible disconnection of the Middle Kingdom from the SWIFT international payment system is very much a concern for the rulers. However, it is obvious that this is an extreme measure that Washington will not go to without unnecessary need. The fact is that disconnecting China from SWIFT promises huge losses to the United States themselves. As we said earlier, the world's two largest economies are so strongly linked to each other that in any case they have leverage over each other, and in any case, they will both suffer losses if the conflict escalates. Thus, most likely, if the United States resort to imposing sanctions, it will be more "calm measures", which Donald Trump has already mentioned more than once.

On the first trading day of the new week, only one report on industrial production in Germany is planned. The report is interesting but secondary. It is expected that by the end of April this indicator will decrease by 16.2-16.8% in monthly terms. However, traders do not have to expect anything else, and in the European Union and the United States, there will probably be no fewer volumes of industrial production falling. Although, for example, in the United States on Friday it became known that the official unemployment rate in April not only did not increase but also decreased. How this can be, if the country at this time was raging with the full force of the epidemic and the quarantine was in effect, is unclear. There may be a mistake or deliberate misrepresentation in order to create the appearance of an improvement in the situation in America because regular weekly reports on applications for unemployment benefits say exactly the opposite. Thus, on Monday, June 8, we expect that the euro/dollar pair will continue to adjust to the moving average. And already around the moving average, the future fate of the European currency will be decided, at least for this week. Of course, the markets will keep in mind the upcoming Fed meeting, which may make adjustments to the plans of market participants.

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The average volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of June 8 is 99 points. Thus, the indicator value is already characterized as "high", thanks to the last two trading days. We expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1192 and 1.1390. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator upwards may signal about a possible completion of a downward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1230

S2 – 1.1108

S3 – 1.0986

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1353

R2 – 1.1475

R3 – 1.1597

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair started to adjust. Thus, after overcoming the psychological level of 1.1000, buy orders remain relevant, at this time with the goals of 1.1353 and 1.1390, but now it is recommended to open them after the current correction is completed. It is recommended to return to selling the pair not before the price is re-anchored below the moving average line with the first goal of 1.1108.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com