EURUSD: Good data helps euro keep bullish momentum

The European currency returned to yesterday's highs after good data indicating that industrial production in the euro zone rose more than expected in January of this year.

This is a good signal that the eurozone economy, although with difficulty, overcomes the recession.

EUR

According to a report by the EU statistics agency Eurostat, industrial production in January increased by 1.4% compared with December 2018. Economists predicted that growth will be 1%. However, compared with January 2018, industrial production decreased by 1.1%.

As noted in the report, the main contribution to the result was made by Spain, where industrial production grew by 3.6%.

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The data on the US economy, expectedly, did not bring the necessary result and failed to affect the current upward correction in the EURUSD pair.

Although producer prices in the US rose in February, the data point to still moderate basic inflationary pressure.

According to a report by the US Department of Labor, the US PPI final demand index in February 2019 increased by only 0.1% compared with the previous month. The base index, which does not take into account volatile categories such as food and energy, also increased by 0.1% compared with January. Economists had forecast that the overall and basic PPI indices would show a 0.2% increase. Compared with the same period of the previous year, the index rose in February by 1.9%. The base index increased by 2.5%.

A good sign of a healthy economy is the demand for durable goods. In the US, growth is observed for the third month in a row. According to the US Department of Commerce, orders for durable goods in January rose by 0.4% compared with the previous month. Economists had expected orders to decline, by contrast, by 0.6%.

Despite the growth, it is worth noting that the main weight in orders was played by civil aircraft, where the increase was almost 16.0%. Excluding transport equipment, orders decreased by 0.1%.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, it remained unchanged compared with the morning forecast.

Buyers are focused on growth above resistance 1.1305. However, all attempts in the morning were unsuccessful. The return to support level of 1.1270 will increase the pressure on risky assets, which will lead to a sale to the area of 1.1235 and 1.1210 lows. The same signal to sell will be the unsuccessful fixing of EURUSD above the resistance of 1.1305, which will increase the pressure on the euro. In case of further growth along the trend, the target for buyers will be the level of 1.1340.

GBP

Speech by the Minister of Finance of the United Kingdom helped the pound to continue to grow. Philip Hammond said that a cloud of uncertainty hung over the economy, but the situation with the finances of the public sector continues to improve. In his opinion, a UK exit from the EU without a deal would mean a smaller and less prosperous economy.

According to the forecasts of the Minister of Finance, the GDP for 2019 will be at the level of 1.2% against the previous estimate of 1.6%. Hammond also noted the likely increase in inflation, as the economy is close to full load.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD: is the dollar not so strong, or is the euro still not strong enough?

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The currency pair EUR / USD was able to attract buyers near the mark of 1.1280 and is attempting to recover to 1.13.

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It should be recognized that, at present, the euro is receiving support mainly due to expectations regarding the postponement of Brexit, since the eurozone also has something to lose if there is an unregulated exit of the UK from the EU.

At the same time, the US currency was under pressure due to the release of weak data on inflation in the US for February, which was published yesterday, and also because of the decline in yield of treasuries.

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According to a number of analysts, despite all the negative, it is premature to talk about a trend reversal towards strengthening the greenback, since the case of its main competitor, the euro, is far from the best.

Fundamental factors still play against the single European currency. While the ECB announces its intention to launch new monetary incentives and keep the interest rate unchanged, at least until the end of this year, the Fed is still withdrawing dollar liquidity from the system, and all statements by the regulator about the termination of the balance normalization program in practice remain words.

It is not excluded that the stimulating policy of the European Central Bank contributes to the weakening of the euro to a greater extent than the pause in the process of raising interest rates in the United States justifies the reduction of the "American".

"According to our estimates, in the short term, the EUR / USD pair may fall below the level of 1.12, after which it stabilizes in the medium-term horizon in the region of 1.12-1.16. In the next six months, the pair is unlikely to break through the upper limit of this range, and any attempts to do this will most likely be associated with an improvement in the economic situation in China," noted Danske Bank experts.

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EUR / USD. The dollar is losing ground: the market "remembered the weak inflation in the US

Today, the dollar index is losing its points: the indicator could not hold in the area of 97 points and at the moment is rather actively declining in the region of the middle 96 figures. The market finally paid attention to the weak report on the growth of American inflation, which was published yesterday. However, the turbulent events of Tuesday related to the prospects of Brexit overshadowed this release - traders assessed the likelihood of approval of the historical transaction against the background of the latest proposals of Brussels. The euro/dollar pair followed the pound, virtually ignoring all other fundamental factors. But today, passions have subsided somewhat: the "divorce process" will most likely be extended until July, so traders shifted their emphasis to other financial events (except for GBP / USD traders and other currency pairs involving the pound - Brexit is still in the center attention).

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In other words, a late reaction of the market to the fact of a slowdown in American inflation followed today. Let me remind you that in annual terms, the consumer price index continues to show negative dynamics. For comparison: in October, it was at the level of 2.5%, and in February it dropped to the level of 1.5% (with a weak growth forecast to 1.6%). Core inflation disappointed even more, both in monthly and annual terms. The release turned out to be lower than the predicted values - 0.1% m / m and 2.1% g / g. Despite the fact that the core consumer price index fell by only one-tenth of a percent, the very fact of negative dynamics is important here, since starting from last fall, these figures went out at the same level, and now the indicator has signaled a slowdown.

Such dynamics can be ignored - neither by the market nor by the Federal Reserve. The current decline in the dollar index is proof of this, but the effects of lowering the CPI may be more widespread. As you know, the Fed is trying to keep the core inflation in the area of two percent, following a dual mandate. At the moment, traders (formally) have no cause for concern - a key indicator even exceeds the target level. But the current trend should be alarming: US inflation has been falling not for the first month, confirming the expediency of a waiting position on the part of the regulator.

Yesterday's data strengthened confidence that the Fed will pause until the end of this year. And although there are intense disputes in the Fed's camp regarding monetary policy prospects (some regulators are in favor of raising rates, despite low inflation), most experts are inclined to think that the Central Bank will not rush things - if core inflation does not return to sustainable growth. So far, the prerequisites for this are not enough. On the one hand, data on the growth of wages in the United States came out much better than expectations, on the other hand, there is a need for sustained growth dynamics, whereas the average hourly wage indicator shows a wave-like movement. So, in December the indicator rose to 0.4% (m / m), in January it dropped to 0.1%, and in February it jumped to 0.4% again. In annual terms, the indicator shows a similar trend.

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Meanwhile, the volume of retail sales leaves much to be desired. The most important indicator of consumer spending in January rose by only 0.2% after a crushing fall in December (then the growth rate of the indicator was the weakest since September 2009). In other words, the inflation component of the Nonfarm, although better than expected, is unlikely to reduce the concerns of regulators regarding the growth rates of core inflation.

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All this suggests that the Fed at its March meeting, which will be held exactly one week later, will keep the "pigeon" attitude. Let me remind you that Jerome Powell holds a press conference after each meeting of regulator members (and not 4 times a year, as it was before), so he will certainly comment on the February Nonfarm and data on inflation growth. If he intensifies concerns about the latest releases, the likelihood of a rate hike this year will decrease again, putting pressure on the dollar. If he allows for the easing of monetary policy, this pressure will be of a larger scale. It is worth noting that the market does not exclude such a scenario - for example, the probability of a rate cut before the end of this year is slightly less than 10%. And although this figure is too low for any conclusions, the probability of such a step was previously zero. Moreover, some representatives of the Fed (Bullard, Bostic) also did not rule out such a scenario.

Thus, the euro-dollar pair has the potential for further corrective growth, which is due only to the weakness of the dollar. The single currency is still under the impression of the March meeting of the ECB (which is clearly seen in cross-pairs with the euro), so there is no need to talk about a trend reversal. In terms of technology, the situation has not changed since yesterday: bulls of the EUR / USD pair still need to consolidate above the mark of 1.1320 (at this price point the Bollinger Bands average line coincides with the Kijun-Sen line on the daily chart). In the future, this will allow the pair to test the 14th figure - the next resistance level is located at 1.1410, where the upper line of the Bollinger Bands coincides with the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud.

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Simplified Wave Analysis. Overview of NZD / USD for the week of March 13

Large TF:

The main vector of the price movement since the beginning of last year is set by the bearish wave. Within its framework, from October, a corrective phase has been developed, which has entered the final phase.

Small TF

The wave of February 12 completes the upward correctional wave of a larger scale. The middle part is formed in the structure, preceding the final spurt upwards.

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Forecast and recommendations:

In the nearest weekly period, an overall flat mood of movement in the side corridor, bounded by oncoming zones, is expected. In the area of support, it is recommended to track reversal signals to search for entry into long positions.

Resistance zones:

- 0.6890 / 0.6940

Support areas:

- 0.6720 / 0.6670

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). On each of the considered scales of the graph, the last, incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Brexit: Theresa May Agreement failed. What are the next actions?

The British pound fell against the US dollar after it became known yesterday that the British parliament rejected the Brexit plan proposed by the government. The new conditions, which were agreed upon by Theresa May on Monday with EU representatives, did not affect the parliament, which led to another failure of the Prime Minister's efforts.

The UK Parliament voted against the revised Brexit agreement proposed by Prime Minister May and rejected the agreement by 391 votes to 242. In January, Parliament rejected the original agreement by a margin of 230 votes.

During the press conference, British Prime Minister Theresa May said that she deeply regrets the outcome of the vote.

Further debates about Brexit without a deal will take place today in parliament.

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It is expected that the majority in parliament will still speak for an orderly Brexit, which will allow the British Prime Minister to put to vote the question of extending the UK exit from the EU. Such a scenario will support the British pound, which may return to weekly highs and continue its growth.

However, not everything is as simple as it seems, even if May advocates extending the UK exit date, EU representatives will need a convincing justification for a request for an extension of the negotiations.

This was said yesterday by the representative of the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk. Tusk regretted the results of the parliamentary vote on Brexit in the UK, saying that the EU had done everything possible to reach an agreement. Now, in his opinion, the probability of Brexit without a deal has increased significantly.

Talking about the technical picture of the British pound with the current volatility is not entirely correct.

As for the EURUSD pair, yesterday's US inflation data did not help the US dollar to resume its growth.

According to the report, consumer prices in the US in February of this year rose slightly, and the main increase was associated with an increase in the cost of energy and food.

According to the data, the CPI of the USA in February rose by 0.2% compared with March. The base consumer price index, which does not take into account the volatile categories of goods, rose in February only by 0.1% compared with the previous month. Economists had expected a 0.2% rise in the overall CPI. Compared with the same period of the previous year, the CPI index rose by 1.5%, while the base one increased by 2.1% compared with February 2018. Economists predicted that the annual growth of the overall index will be 1.6%, and the annual growth of the base index will be equal to 2.2%.

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Yesterday, there was also news that negotiations aimed at resolving the trade conflict between the United States and China are close to completion. This was stated by US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer on a speech at the Senate Finance Committee. He noted that he regularly communicates with his Chinese counterpart and is pleased with the course of negotiations, which are gradually approaching the final stage.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, then the buyers will count on a larger increase above the resistance of 1.1305, which is extremely difficult to do. Only good fundamental statistics on the eurozone can support the euro in the morning. The return to the support level of 1.1270 will increase the pressure on risky assets, which will lead to a sale to the area of 1.1235 and 1.1210 lows. The same signal to sell will be the unsuccessful fixing of EURUSD above the resistance of 1.1305, which will increase the pressure on the euro.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD. March 13. The trading system. "Regression Channels". The expected failure of Theresa May in Parliament

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - up.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: -18.3116

The GBP / USD currency pair resumed its downward movement yesterday, very predictably, but it would be even more expected to see a strong decline in the British pound. The fact is that the vote on the agreement of Theresa May with the EU in the British Parliament yesterday completely failed. 391 parliamentarians voted against the "deal, while only 242 politicians were "for". Thus, the epithet "deafening" is ideally suited to the word "failure" in these conditions. We said yesterday that, most likely, there were no super-arrangements between Juncker and Theresa May. Or, in exchange for concessions in the legal status of the backstop, Theresa May proposed something that, again, runs counter to the interests of parliament. In general, nothing unexpected happened. Today, there will be a vote for leaving the EU without any agreements. And this vote is likely to fail also. Tomorrow, there will be a vote for the extension of the terms of Brexit, which can be taken. However, a question arises that the prime minister has already voiced: what does the parliament want to achieve by delaying Brexit? Holding a second referendum? Refusal to leave the EU? Exit, but on the terms of the parliament itself? Most likely, the latter, but parliamentarians should clearly understand that the EU will no longer be inferior to anything to Theresa May. Accordingly, there will be no new agreements. In general, the United Kingdom has driven itself into a situation where there is no way out that would satisfy everyone.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.3062

S2 - 1.3000

S3 - 1.2939

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.3123

R2 - 1.3184

R3 - 1.3245

Trading recommendations:

The pair GBP / USD resumed its downward movement. Thus, short positions with targets of 1.3062 and 1.3000 are again relevant. At the same time, we urge to be cautious with any positions, since there are still two important ballots ahead in parliament.

Buy positions are recommended to be opened in case the pair manages to consolidate above the moving average. In this case, the trend in the instrument will change to ascending again and the long positions with targets at 1.3184 and 1.3245 will become relevant.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. March 13. The trading system. "Regression Channels". The euro remains calm but shows a readiness to continue growth

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The junior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 55.5281

The EUR / USD currency pair on Wednesday, March 13, continues a slight, but almost recoilless, upward movement and has overcome the moving. As we have said several times this week, all the attention of market participants is still riveted on the pound sterling, or rather on the events taking place in the British Parliament. For the euro, trading is sluggish and inactive. Reports on inflation were published in the States yesterday, but they did not have a particular impact on the pair, although they may have helped it grow a little more. Today in the European Union, a secondary report on industrial production in January will be published. And in the States, there will be several reports on orders for durable and capital goods. American reports have a greater degree of significance, so the main movements can take place in the American trading session. What kind of movements will be made clear after the release of these reports? Euro currency in the past few days have recovered after overcoming the most important area of 1.1250 - 1.1290, but overall, the downward trend in the instrument continues, despite the overcoming of the MA. The euro, as before, has no weighty background support, such as a strong monetary policy or a "hawkish" mood of the ECB, which would level out less important disappointing news.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1261

S2 - 1.1230

S3 - 1.1200

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1292

R2 - 1.1322

R3 - 1.1353

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair EUR / USD continues to move up. Thus, it is now recommended to consider already long positions with targets of levels 1.1322 and 1.1353, if the pair succeeds in overcoming Murray's level of "2/8".

It is recommended to return to sell orders in the case of a re-consolidation of the pair below the moving average line with targets at 1.1261 and 1.1230, as the tendency to change to a downward one.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of Gold for March 13, 2019

Gold has been trading upwards as we expected. The price tested the level of $1.308.00. Gold has been extending its gains since our previous analysis.

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Gold is trading higher with a good momentum and we see no signs of reversal yet. Accumulation phase in the background and the successful test were the key reason of the current bullish momentum. Intraday support is seen at the price of $1.303.60 and the key short-term support at $1.1275. Resistance levels are seen at $1.311.30 and $1.320.00.

Trading recommendation: We are still long on gold from $1.296.00 and with targets at $1.311.50 and $1.320.40. Stop Loss is shifted to the breakeven level and on that way, we secured our position so we can't lose.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD analysis for March 13, 2019

EUR/USD has been trading upwards as we expected. EUR tested the level of 1.1304. EUR has been extending gains since our previous analysis.

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The daily bullish divergence on the Stochastic oscillator did set the tone for the upside and the EUR is still trading higher with decent momentum and no signs for a trend reversal. Our first target and short-term resistance (20 EMA) is seen at the price of 1.1315. If the price breaks the level of 1.1320, we may see a potential test of next resistance levels at 1.1342 and key resistance at 1.1400.

Trading recommendation: We are still long EUR from 1.1248 but we closed half of the position at 1.1300 and on second half our target is set at 1.1400. Stop loss is moved at 1.1275.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for March 13, 2019

BTC has been trading sideways at the price of $3.836 but with the successful rejection of the key resistance at the price of $3.870, which is a sign that buying looks risky.

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Our analysis from yesterday is still active. According to the H4 time frame, we found that there is a potential end of the upward correction (complex zig-zag), which is a sign that the downward movement is expected to follow. Most recently, there has been a breakout of the upward channel, bearish divergence on the stochastic oscillator and testing of 20 EMA which is a sign that sellers took control from buyers. Support levels are seen at $3.637 and $3.524. The key resistance level is seen at $3.925.

Trading recommendation: We are bearish on BTC from $3.840 with targets at $3.637 and $3.524. Protective stop is placed at $3.925.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD: British parliamentarians rejected the Brexit agreement again - what to expect next?

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For the second time, the British legislators rejected the draft "divorce" agreement by an overwhelming majority, promoted by the Prime Minister of the country Theresa May.

The pound sterling weakly reacted to the next defeat of the head of government in the House of Commons. The main decrease in the British currency happened yesterday afternoon after the Attorney General of England and Wales, Geoffrey Cox, said that the new version of the transaction does not exclude legal risks associated with the so-called "backstop" mechanism.

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Today, the British parliamentarians have to decide whether the country should withdraw from the EU without any agreement.

If, as expected, lawmakers reject the Brexit scenario without a deal, then tomorrow they will have to vote for or against postponing the UK's exit date from the EU, which is scheduled for March 29.

According to some experts, the delay, which will be positively perceived by the markets, can provoke the departure of Brexit supporters from T. May Camp and even launch a chain of events that could lead to its retirement.

In addition, it is possible that a short delay may eventually turn into a long one. The question is, what to expect from the additional 90 days of negotiations if the previous two and a half years did not bring results? Moreover, such a postponement will not necessarily be good news for the pound, since it is not known whether it will lead to a repeated referendum (or a new parliamentary election).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD plan for the American session on March 13. Buyers are counting on the scenario of extending the UK exit from the

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

Buyers coped with the task and managed to consolidate above the resistance of 1.3145. If it is possible to keep above this range after the release of US data, the demand for a pound will lead to an update of the maximum of 1.3229, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of a decrease in the pound below the level of 1.3145 in the second half of the day, it is best to return to long positions to rebound from the support of 1.3085.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

Any decision on Brexit today may lead to another surge in volatility. Sellers need a scenario in which the chance of indiscriminate withdrawal of the UK from the EU will increase. Returning and consolidating below the support level of 1.3145 can lead to profit taking on long positions and GBP/USD decline in the support area of 1.3085, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of further growth of the pound, you can return to short positions from a maximum of 1.3229 and 1.3313.

More details in the video forecast for March 13

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30- and 50-medium moving, which indicates a high probability of a side channel.

Bollinger bands

A break of the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.3165 will lead to a new wave of pound growth. In the case of a downward correction, the average border of the indicator in the 1.3105 area will provide support.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD plan for the US session on March 13. Euro buyers are preparing a new leap

To open long positions on EUR/USD pair, you need:

Good indicators of industrial production in the eurozone instilled confidence in euro buyers to prepare for its breakdown after the first unsuccessful test of resistance to 1.1303, which will be a signal to buy with the aim of updating the highs around 1.1336 and 1.1405, where I recommend taking profits. In the event of a decline in the euro in the afternoon, the support level will be at the area of 1.1269 but it is best to open long positions to rebound from a minimum of 1.1238.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Weak data on producer prices in the United States can completely cancel the plans of sellers. After the reports are released, only the formation of a false breakdown in the area of 1.1303 will be a signal to sell the euro in order to reduce and retest the support of 1.1269, where I recommend taking profits. Under the scenario of further growth in EUR/USD, it is best to rely on short positions to rebound from a maximum of 1.1336 and 1.1368.

More details in the video forecast for March 13

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade remains above the 30- and 50-medium moving, which indicates the advantage of buyers.

Bollinger bands

The break of the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the area of 1.1303 will lead to a new wave of euro growth.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified Wave Analysis. Overview of EUR / CHF for the week of March 13

Large TF:

Actual for today, the wave model is ascending, starting from September 10 of last year. The final part (C) is nearing completion in the structure. The whole wave has a distinct flat character.

Small TF:

In the bullish wave of January 3, the first 2 parts (A + B) are formed. Given the completeness of the structure of the middle part and the presence of a bullish plot with reversal potential, it can be argued about the beginning of the final part (C).

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Forecast and recommendations:

This week, the price will continue the increase that has begun. The range of fluctuations will be limited by the area between the nearest oncoming zones. Supporters of the intersessional style may make short-term purchases, but it is more reasonable to reduce the lot.

Resistance zones:

- 1.1490 / 1.1540

Support areas:

- 1.1340 / 1.1290

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). On each of the considered scales of the graph, the last, incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified Wave Analysis. Overview of GBP / USD for the week of March 13

Large TF:

As part of the downward trend wave dominating since April last year, the price rise of the last 3 months constitutes a correction.

Small TF:

As a result of the appreciation, the price of a pound reached a large reversal zone. The wave structure looks complete. The downward zigzag, which began on February 27, has a reversal potential and can become a starting point for a new section of the main trend.

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Forecast and recommendations:

In the coming days, it is likely that the price of the pound will move in the range between the nearest oncoming zones. After the reversal model is fully completed, a price break will follow, with a breakthrough in the nearest support. Traders should look at the signals of the sale of a major.

Resistance zones:

- 1.3180 / 1.3230

Support areas:

- 1.2930 / 1.2880

- 1.2700 / 1.2650

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). On each of the considered scales of the graph, the last, incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Side dynamics in the foreign exchange market will continue

In the wake of signals about the slowdown of the global economy in general (particularly the Chinese, European, and also American), problems on Brexit and expectations of the outcome of trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing, the dollar is almost not in demand amid the a situation of instability at the very least when previously the US currency received unequivocal support is strange.

In our opinion, this behavior of investors can be explained by the fact of realizing that dollar assets were traditionally interesting in difficult times as instruments of capital preservation and they did not risk doing this for two important reasons. First is the expectation of a change in the course of the Fed's monetary policy, which was taken by surprise as a factor in the decline in the growth of the national economy will be forced not only to not raise rates further but also to stop reducing its balance sheet. It seems that the markets believe that if the situation worsens further then the regulator will have to start lowering interest rates. It is possible that even it will go further and resuming some elements that support the economy, such as for example, the ECB has decided to launch the TLTRO banking sector support program.

Investors believe that in this situation the Fed has a safety margin. They can lower rates after they start raising in 2015 but such an opportunity, for example, the ECB does not. Hence, if the American regulator starts stimulating in the future then the dollar will be under more pressure than the euro.

Another equally important reason is the likelihood that Donald Trump, wishing to be elected for a second presidential term, will do his best to support the local stock market which puts pressure on the Fed and wanting to soften its position in monetary policy.

Observing the emerging trends, we believe that the period of uncertainty will continue, which will force investors to exercise a high degree of caution. In the foreign exchange market, this will manifest itself in the continuation of the overall lateral dynamics of currency pairs where the US dollar is present.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR/USD pair is trading above 1.1270. If the pair holds above this mark, it may continue its upward trend to 1.1330 while still remaining in a wide side range. At the same time, its decline below this level may lead to its limited fall to 1.1240.

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The GBP/USD pair is likely to trade in the range of 1.2960-1.3115 this week while waiting for two votes in the British Parliament for Brexit. The pair will behave extremely unpredictable and reacting with trepidation to the news on rumors about Brexit.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for March 13, 2019

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Overview:

The GBP/USD pair will continue rising from the level of 1.3130 in the long term. It should be noted that the support is established at the level of 1.3130 which represents the daily pivot point on the H1 chart. The price is likely to form a double bottom in the same time frame. Accordingly, the GBP/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 1.3130. So, buy above the level of 1.3300 with the first target at 1.3524 in order to test the daily resistance 1. The level of 1.3524 is a good place to take profits. Moreover, the RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it remains strong above the moving average (100). This suggests that the pair will probably go up in coming hours. If the trend is able to break the level of 1.3300, then the market will call for a strong bullish market towards the objective of 1.3524 today. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the GBP/USD pair breaks through the support level of 1.3130, a further decline to 1.3080 can occur. It would indicate a bearish market.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for March 13, 2019

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Overview:

Pivot point: 0.6882.

The pair is still trading around the daily pivot point of 0.6882. The NZD/USD pair breached resistance which had turned into strong support at the level of 0.6705 this week. The level of 0.6705 coincides with a golden ratio, which is expected to act as major support today. The RSI is considered to be overbought, because it is above 70. The RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it is still strong above the moving average (100). Besides, note that the pivot point is seen at the point of 0.6882. This suggests that the pair will probably go up in the coming hours. Accordingly, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. In other words, buy orders are recommended to be placed above 0.6800 with the first target at the level of 0.6882. From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.6882 and further to the level of 0.6984. The level of 0.6984 will act as strong resistance. On the other hand, if there is a breakout at the support level of 0.6705, this scenario may become invalidated.

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Analysis of the divergence of EUR / USD for March 13. A bearish divergence predicts euro to fall

4h

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The EUR / USD pair on the 4-hour chart completed growth to the correctional level of 76.4% - 1.1299. Quoting quotes on March 13 from this level will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the American currency and a slight drop in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1216. Bearish divergence in the CCI indicator increases the likelihood of rebound from the Fibo level of 76.4%. Closing the course of the pair above the correction level of 76.4% will work in favor of continuing growth towards the next Fibo level of 61.8% - 1.1351.

The Fibo grid was built on extremes from November 12, 2018, and January 10, 2019.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the pair reverted to the correction level of 127.2% - 1.1285. The rebound of the pair from this level will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US dollar and the resumption of decline in the direction of the correctional level of 161.8% - 1.0941. There are no maturing divergences on the current chart. Fixing quotations above the Fibo level of 127.2% will increase the probability of further growth in the direction of the next correction level of 100.0% - 1.1553.

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

New purchases of the EUR / USD pair will be possible with the goal of 1.1351 if the pair closes above the level of 1.1299, and a Stop Loss order with a correction level of 76.4%.

Sales of the EUR / USD pair can be carried out with the target of 1.1216 if the pair disconnects from the level of 1.1299, and a Stop Loss order above the Fibo level of 76.4%.

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Analysis of the divergence of GBP / USD for March 13. Pound sterling in thought

4h

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The pair GBP / USD on the 4-hour chart performed a reversal in favor of the US currency and closing below the correction level of 76.4% - 1.3094. Thus, on March 13, the fall in quotations can be continued in the direction of the next Fibo level of 61.8% - 1.2969. There is no indicator of the emerging divergences today. Fixing the pair above the correction level of 76.4% can be interpreted as a reversal in favor of the British currency and we can expect some growth in the direction of the correctional level of 100.0% - 1.3300.

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from September 20, 2018, and January 3, 2019.

1h

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On the hourly chart, the pair made a fall to the correctional level of 50.0% - 1.3062. The end of quotes from this level allows us to expect a reversal in favor of the pound sterling and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 38.2% - 1.3130. The end of the quotations from the Fibo level of 38.2% will work in favor of the US dollar and the resumption of the fall in the direction of the correction level of 50.0%. Closing a pair under this level will increase the chances of continuing to fall in the direction of the next Fibo level of 61.8% - 1.2993.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from February 14, 2019, and February 27, 2019.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the GBP / USD pair can be carried out now with a target of 1.3130 and a Stop Loss order below the level of 50.0% since the pair has completed the rebound from the level of 1.3062 (hourly chart).

Sales of the GBP / USD pair can be carried out with the target of 1.3062 and a Stop Loss order above the level of 38.2% if the pair bounces off the level of 1.3130 (hourly chart).

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Trading Plan for 03/13/2019

The big picture: The market is waiting for the final Brexit.

On Tuesday, the British Parliament finally put an end to Prime Minister May's attempt to negotiate an agreement with the EU, which is a complete failure.

Today, March 13, there will be a vote on the withdrawal of Britain from the EU without an agreement, which will probably not receive a majority vote. On Thursday, March 14, a key vote on the issue about the Postponement of Brexit for a long time for a year or more.

The EU has announced that it will no longer negotiate an agreement until the British Parliament decides. Most likely, Brexit will be postponed which is what the opponents of Brexit aims for and this will calm the markets.

EUR/USD: Returns to range.

An attempt to start a downward trend began last week but apparently failed, which turned out to be false one.

The euro has returned already to the 5-month range.

We are ready to buy the euro from 1.1425.

We are ready to sell the euro from 1.1175.

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Forecast for USD / JPY pair on March 13, 2019

The Japanese yen is completely calm during yesterday's trading as the volatility increased in European currencies, which then resulted to rise by 12 points. The Marlin oscillator signal line on the four-hour chart is in a hurry to move to the growth territory, despite the decline in the price of the last seven candles. The intermediate goal of the rising price remains the level of 111.65, which is the minimum of March 4 and the resistance of the MACD line on H4. A fixation above the level again opens the target to the upper borders of the price channels of the daily chart to the area 113.10.

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for March 13. Euro continues to calm trading with the increase

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Wave counting analysis:

On Tuesday, March 12, trading ended for EUR / USD by another 40 bp increase. Thus, the tool continues to build the expected wave of a new uptrend trend. If this assumption is true, then the increase in quotes will continue with targets located near the levels of 61.8% and 76.4% on the small Fibonacci grid. The news background for the pair remains relatively neutral upon which, at least sharp price fluctuations are not caused by it. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 50.0% Fibonacci level may throw the pair down a bit. The backup option implies a serious complication of the downward trend section. And it will be possible to return to it after breaking through the minimum of wave 5.

Sales targets:

1.1176 - 0.0% Fibonacci

Shopping goals:

1.1326 - 61.8% Fibonacci

1.1362 - 76.4% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair allegedly completed building wave 5. Thus, only a breakthrough of 127.2% Fibonacci level will return us to sales. Now, I recommend to continue to buy a pair with targets located near the estimated marks of 1.1326 and 1.1362, based on the construction of the upward wave 1 or a. For greater persuasiveness in the execution of this option, I recommend waiting for a successful attempt to break through the level of 50.0%.

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD for March 13. Does the UK Parliament need a Brexit without a deal?

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Wave counting analysis:

On March 12, the pair GBP / USD fell by 120 basis points. Moreover, the decline began even before the moment when it became known that the British Parliament refused to accept the agreement as discussed by Teresa May with the European Union. This is considered as bad news for the pound sterling, but this is not the end. Today, there will be a vote for withdrawal from the EU without any agreements and arrangements. It is unlikely that this proposal will be adopted by the Parliament. However, if it will suddenly be accepted, the UK will leave the EU on March 29, as originally intended. Tomorrow there will be a vote to postpone the Brexit date. For the pound, the best option would be the transfer, since this is another postponement of a very likely "bad" option. Against the background of this decision, the pound may add to the price.

Shopping goals:

1.3348 - 0.0% Fibonacci

Sales targets:

1.2891 - 50.0% Fibonacci (senior Fibonacci grid)

1.2784 - 61.8% Fibonacci (senior Fibonacci grid)

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The wave pattern still involves the construction of a downward set of waves, and the estimated wave 2 already looks complete. Therefore, sales are now expedient with targets 1.2891 and 1.2784, which equates to 50.0% and 61.8% Fibonacci. Voting today may again end with strong movements.

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The deal failed, but the pound is growing: what caused the optimism of the Briton?

Despite the disastrous Brexit voting, the pound in tandem with the dollar was kept within the 30th figure and actually ignored the decision of the British parliament. Although yesterday morning, the British stormed the multi-week price highs, amid renewed hopes for approval of the deal. Alas, the miracle did not happen: 391 deputies voted against the draft of the transaction, while only 242 parliamentarians said "yes". A gap of 149 votes is a significant blow to the positions of the current government, which testifies to the persistence of opposition sentiments among the deputies of the Conservative Party. And although, May was able to "win over" 40 conservatives, 75 of their colleagues did not change their opinion and voted against the agreement.

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The British currency was ready for such a decision - ghostly hopes for approval of the deal, which appeared just before the vote, and was dispelled by the Attorney General of Britain. He voiced negative legal assessments regarding the changes proposed by Brussels. Jeffrey Cox warned cabinet ministers and deputies that certain risks still remained in the country, since London would not have the legal leverage to get out of the back-stop. If these conditions are accepted, Britain will have only one way in which the country can exit (or rather, try to exit) from the back-stop mechanism - this is the Arbitration Court which in turn is governed by EU legislation. The Prosecutor General also stressed that the British would not be able to unilaterally abandon this mechanism.

After such comments, the deal was refused to be supported by representatives of unionists (situational allies of the conservatives occupy majority positions in parliament) including many conservatives. The result of the vote was predetermined. Therefore, the pound actually remained in the same values later in the evening, in the range of 1.3040-1.3070. Moreover, today the pound is even making attempts for recovery, approaching the 31st figure. What is the reason for such "stress resistance" of the British currency?

In my opinion, the market is gradually increasing the likelihood of a second referendum, which will save the country within the EU. And although this scenario now looks unlikely, it is quite viable, given the rhetoric of representatives of the European Union. I recall that the head of the European Commission, Junker, voicing his last proposals to London. He stressed that there would be no "one more chance" for the British - the postponement of Brexit will not solve anything essentially, since Europe will not make more significant concessions.

If we take into account the possibility that London categorically does not accept the implementation of "hard" Brexit, then there are two options - either the parliament will initiate a new referendum, or ask Brussels to postpone the exit from the Alliance for a more substantial period at least for a year. By the way, according to the information of European journalists, the European Union is really considering such a scenario: According to the developed plan, the country of Albion will remain in the European Union until 2020 or 2021 by prolonging the 50th article of the Lisbon Treaty.

According to the press reports, Europe is developing this option in case after the postponement of Brexit and until the beginning of summer, the parties are not able to find a compromise. A broader time frame is needed for the next (or extraordinary) parliamentary elections to take place in Britain. Brussels negotiated new terms of the deal with the new government, which in turn was appointed by the new parliament. Journalists gave assurance that this plan is already being discussed in Europe "at the highest level."

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Here, it is worth noting that the issue on the extension of the 50th article of the Treaty of Lisbon must be initiated directly by London. And this fact can be considered a serious flaw in the above scenario, since de facto on such decision will go against the results of the 2016 referendum. Therefore, the likelihood of a repeated plebiscite cannot be dismissed, despite the legal difficulty of implementing this option. Laborists are lobbying this idea again, so there is a certain basis in parliament for making the appropriate decision. If they are supported by the "opposition group" of conservatives, then the question of the new referendum will take real shape.

A few weeks ago, Teresa May warned that if Parliament passes the Brexit, then it may simply not take place. She voiced this thesis on the eve of yesterday's vote, thereby pushing deputies to approve the proposed deal. Now, these words already sound in a somewhat different context: the parliament will most likely vote on Thursday for postponing the "X hour", which means that the likelihood of the cancellation of Brexit as such will increase in many ways. The pound responds positively to such prospects, spurred also by the growth of the British economy in January to 0.5%.

But, without a deal, today's vote for Brexit can be considered passing: even among conservative hawks, the idea of a "no deal" is not popular, so the outcome of the vote can be considered predetermined.

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Burning Forecast 03/13//2019

The euro's strong growth for three days in a row has canceled the downward trend in EURUSD. A return to the range.

Growth took place against the backdrop of a vote in the British Parliament in agreement with the EU. The last attempt to hold an agreement failed - now the vote on leaving Britain from the EU without an agreement - today, March 13 - probably will not pass - and most importantly on March 14 - to postpone Brexit - is expected for a year or more.

We are waiting for the breakout range for the euro and the beginning of the trend.

We are ready to buy euros from 1.1425.

Alternative: Sell the euro from 1.1175.

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Rising tensions increase demand for defensive assets

In the past weeks, there is a wave of optimism that dominated the markets amid the expectations of an early conclusion of a large-scale trade deal between the US and China. However, this wave is gradually eroding.

According to US Trade Representative, Robert Lighthizer, who spoke on the Senate Finance Committee, said that he hoped that negotiations would be completed soon but could not guarantee the signing of the agreement. It is known that the scheduled meeting with Trump at the end of March disappeared from the schedule of Chairman C, which may indicate that there are serious differences. The unnamed insiders report that China put forward the condition of legal guarantees under the agreements, which for some reason did not suit the United States and as usual expected that only the second party should undertake the obligations.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index improved slightly and increased by 0.5 points to 101.7 in February, but the trend is still negative.

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In February, inflation decreased from 1.6% to 1.5% y/y, which indicates a weak correlation with optimistic forecasts for wage growth rates. The growth of core inflation slowed to 0.1% against an increase of 0.2% a month earlier, while the annual rate also declined from 2.2% to 2.1%.

Nervousness in the markets is reflected in the rising demand for gold. April futures broke through 1,300 and returned to March highs. OPEC countries are discussing the possibility of extending the deal to restrict production until the end of the year. The main reason is the lack of growth in demand amid events in Iran and Venezuela, which may indicate a global slowdown. The dollar does not look strong, as evident by the inability to strengthen against the euro even against the backdrop of the announced TLTRO plan.

EUR / USD pair

The bond yields of the eurozone countries continue to decline, playing back the results of changes in the monetary policy of the ECB. Markets fear that the intended measures may be ineffective and the ECB will be trapped in liquidity, losing effective measures to manage monetary policy.

The growth of EURUSD is completed, the chances of overcoming resistance 1.1300 / 10 a little, more reason to decline to 1.1230 / 40.

GBP / USD pair

The package of macroeconomic data published on Tuesday showed no uniform dynamics. On the one hand, the rate of decline in industrial production declined in January. While waiting for -1.3%, the real decrease was the same as a month earlier at the level of -0.9%. Data on GDP growth rates for 3 months to January inclusively turned out to be noticeably better than expected with + 0.5% against the forecast of 0.2%.

At the same time, NIESR has a negative outlook on economic growth. According to its data, the growth was only 0.1% in February while only 0.2% is predicted for the next month.

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In January, the trade balance turned out to be noticeably worse than expectations, which worsens the record lows on the current account amid the flight of investors from London. Today, the Ministry of Finance will present its economic forecast for the next year, we should expect a deterioration in the budget forecast due to a fall in revenues, which will lead to even greater pressure on the pound.

The positions of the pound are fully determined by the three-day marathon in the British Parliament under the terms of the country's exit from the EU. Yesterday, the May government suffered another crushing defeat. The project was rejected by a margin of 149 votes and now parliamentarians will have to decide whether they are ready to support Brexit without an agreement at all. The probability of a positive outcome of the vote is also small and apparently, the next final result of this soap opera will be the third final vote, which will postpone the decision for another couple of months. Since the results of the elections to the European Parliament will already be known most likely in the middle of May, the UK will have to decide on its future before this date.

The pound will be under pressure in the short term due to increased uncertainty and the likelihood of a vote of no confidence in the government. The likelihood of a Tuesday low to 1.2960 is low and the support at 1.3050 will stand as markets do not expect surprises from today's vote. Growth is limited at the level of 1.3140/50.

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Trading recommendations for the EURUSD currency pair - placement of trading orders (March 13)

For the last trading day, the currency pair Euro / Dollar showed low volatility of 57 points. As a result, it continued to form a correction. From the point of view of technical analysis, we have a corrective move from the value of 1.1176, where the quote has already reached the predicted level of 1.1300, forming a slight stagnation-rollback on it. The information and news background had a long-awaited vote in the British Parliament regarding the "new" version of the agreement on the country's withdrawal from the European Union. As you have already guessed, the so-called new agreement with the old holes flew into the pipe, 391 deputies voted against it, and 242 are in favor of it. The head of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, held telephone talks with British Prime Minister Teresa May on the situation surrounding the UK's exit from the EU, but they did not agree to hold any meetings on this topic in the coming days. If we look at the schedule of the Euro / Dollar, there are no significant changes, as if this circus has become so boring to the Europeans that even such a significant information background have gone by. What did the euro support in yesterday's session? Most likely, it concerns the news background. Yesterday, inflation occurred in the United States, which showed a slowdown from 1.9% to 1.5%, with a forecast of 1.6%.

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Today, new stages of voting in parliament begins. It talks about the decision on withdrawing Britain from the EU without a deal referring to what we call as hard Brexit. If they do not agree on anything, then on Thursday, it will be a question of postponing Brexit's date, upon referred to buy the experts. The information background is certainly strong. One can even say positive for the pound and the euro. However, with regards to how the European currency will react to it and whether it will react at all is, of course, a question. At the same time, according to the news background, we have statistics from the United States, where the data is again weak. The volume of orders for durable goods (m / m) in January showed a decline from 1.2% to -0.5%. The base producer price index (PPI) (m / m) for February has a similar decline, from 2.0% to 1.9%. Thus, such a general background can support a single currency.

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that after the price approaches the level of 1.1300, there has been a slight slowdown, where the quotation forms two-digit doji-type candles. It is likely to assume that in case of a fixation higher than 1.1328, the upward interest will resume, pulling us to 1.1360-1.1375. In any case, the traders will also have to consider the opposite scenario, certainly if the bullish interest fades away and the level of 1,1300 plays the role of resistance. And in case of price fixing lower than 1.1265, the way to levels 1.1240-1.12214 will be opened. (Method - work on both sides).

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Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations, let's consider them:

- Consider buy positions in the case of leveling and fixing higher than 1.1325, with the prospect of 1.1360-1.1375.

- Consider positions for sale after fixing the price lower than 1.1265, with a primary perspective of 1.1240-1.1214.

Indicator Analysis

Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF ), there was a downward interest in the short term amid a slowdown and development to the level of 1.1300. Intraday perspective is still focused on correction - upward interest. Medium term retains a downward interest.

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Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation , with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(March 13, was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 13 points, which is considered a low value. It is likely to assume that the volatility of the day will remain within the daily average.

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Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.1300 **; 1.1440; 1.1550; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1.2100

Support areas: 1.1214 **; 1.1120; 1.1000

* Periodic level

** Range Level

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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on March 13. Buyers negate the bearish trend

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

The euro's next growth negated the bears' plans for a quick continuation of the downward trend. At the moment, it is best to return to long positions from the support of 1.1269, provided a false breakdown occurs, or to rebound from a low of 1.1238. Buying at the breakout of the resistance of 1.1303 will not be the right decision, since it is possible to form a divergence on the MACD indicator, which can lead to a decline in the euro. In the scenario of a breakthrough above 1.1303, against the background of good news on the eurozone, you can open short positions immediately on the rebound from a high of 1.1336.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Bears will count on another unsuccessful attempt to break through the resistance of 1.1303, with the formation of a divergence on the MACD indicator, which may lead to a downward correction in the area of 1.1269 and 1.1238, where I recommend to lock in profits. In case of good data on the volume of industrial production in the eurozone, the growth of EUR/USD may continue; in this scenario, it is best to return to short positions against the trend to rebound from a high of 1.1336.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

As long as trading will be above 30-day and 50-day moving averages, the demand for euros will continue.

Bollinger bands

The growth of the euro may be limited by the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the area of 1.1303, while a breakthrough of the lower boundary of the indicator in the area of 1.1274 will be a signal to sell the euro.

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Indicator description

  • Moving Average (average sliding) 50 days - yellow
  • Moving Average (average sliding) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Overview of the currency market on 03/13/2019

Well, were the results of the voting on the issue of a "divorce" agreement with the European Union in the House of Commons came as a surprise to someone? How happy about all that is happening are the speculators who seem to be the only ones who benefit from this farce? Naturally, the parliamentarians rejected the agreement, which is no different from the one that they had already rejected earlier. Yes, Theresa May made a couple of new promises from Brussels to sign an addendum in the form of a trade agreement, but only by the end of next year. That is, the former colonizers of half of the world are invited to believe in some good intentions and aspirations of some incomprehensible characters. It was as if everyone had forgotten how the ancestors of all these worthy men created an empire over which the sun never set. One of the main tools was the promise of all good against all bad. Did someone think that parliamentarians would buy into glass beads?

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Immediately after the results of the vote were announced, representatives of the Brussels bureaucracy expressed regret on this issue, adding that they did not know how to save the situation. After all, they have already offered the best possible agreement to Britain. However, in this so-called best agreement, the most important thing in the world was not there- trade. More precisely, there is, but in a form that puts the United Kingdom on the brink of an economic disaster. And it seems that it is not just the desire of many European countries to oust British capital from their markets, to be replaced by their own companies, and due to the growth of tax revenues to improve their finances, this is some kind of revenge for the old grievances and confrontations, of which the UK came out with a profit, and they only with a loss.

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It should be noted that the single European currency seems to have ceased to respond to the island circus, and, unlike the pound, it even grew. This is mostly due to the final data on inflation in the United States, which showed that it slowed down from 1.9% not to 1.6%, but to 1.5%. That is worse than what investors have already taken into account after the publication of preliminary data.

As we can see, the single European currency no longer reacts so strongly to the scandals in London, so that it will be more responsive to macroeconomic statistics, which favors its strengthening again for the day. The fact is that the data on industrial production in Europe should show a slowdown in the decline from -4.2% to -2.1%. Of course, a recession is a recession, but nevertheless a certain improvement in the situation is clearly encouraging. Moreover, in the United States, producer prices are expected to slow down from 2.0% to 1.9%, and orders for durable goods may be reduced by 0.5%. Obviously, the combination of lower producer prices with a simultaneous decrease in orders for their products will inspire few people. Thus, the single European currency has good chances to rise to 1.1325.

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In London, as they say, the circus left, and the clowns remained. Today, the House of Commons will vote on the possibility of withdrawing from the European Union without a deal with this damned Fourth Reich. It is clear that the way out without a deal in economic terms is exactly the same as the way out with the agreement proposed by Europe. And oh, this agreement does not suit the descendants of the colonialists. Thus, this option will most likely be rejected by parliamentarians, which leads the House of Commons to discuss the issue of postponing the date of divorce from Brussels. This will be an excellent reason for the growth of optimism, especially among speculators. After all, there is a hope that Theresa May will still have time to agree on something with Jean-Claude Juncker. It is clear that everything that has happened over the past couple of years clearly demonstrates that for how long they will not come or come to anything. Europe is firmly on its own, and the UK is constantly outraged that no one wants to consider such an option that suits itself exclusively. You never know what the natives on the continent have thought of themselves, but the fact that the negotiations will continue will contribute to the growth of the pound to 1,3175.

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Trading recommendations for the GBPUSD currency pair - placement of trading orders (March 13)

For the last trading day, the currency pair Pound / Dollar showed a mega-volatility of 282 points once again, as a result of having a wide amplitude of fluctuations. From the point of view of technical analysis, we have a pulse movement, where as a result, the quotation returned to the psychological value of 1.3000 for a while and almost immediately rolled back. It was all because of the information background. Yesterday, the British Parliament held another vote on the Brexit Treaty with the EU, and, as you already guessed, Theresa May was defeated: 391 deputies voted against her, 242. Although, the news was expected, the speculators did not miss the moment to roll the English pound to the bottom. In turn, the European Union has already responded by stating that it regrets, but it will not help Britain.

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Today new stages of voting in parliament begin. It will be about withdrawal of the country from the EU without a deal - this is the so-called hard Brexit. If they do not agree on anything, then on Thursday we will focus on postponing the date of Brexit, to which referred by many experts.

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the quotation tends to roll back after yesterday's rally of bears. It is likely to assume that the rollback will continue, and in the case of supporting the information background, we will see almost a 100% recovery. What kind of support? If the parliament does not come to anything on the current vote, hen it is obvious that everyone will vote for a postponement tomorrow, nd this news will be regarded by the speculators as positive and the pound will go into strengthening.

Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations. Let's consider them:

- Positions for buy are considered in the case of leveling and fixing higher than 1.3140, with a perspective of 1.3180-1.3220.

- Positions for sale are considered after fixing the price lower than 1.3040, with a primary perspective of 1.3000.

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Indicator Analysis

Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that there has been an upward interest against the background of a rollback in the short and intraday perspective. On the other hand, the medium-term perspective, due to the recent rally, has changed interest to downward.

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Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(March 13 was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 59 points. It is likely to assume that the volatility, due to the information background, will remain at a high level.

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Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.3130 *; 1,3200 *; 1,3300 **; 1.3440; 1.3580 *; 1.3700.

Support areas: 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.2920 *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1.2500 *; 1.2350 **.

* Periodic level

** Range Level

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