EUR/NZD : analysis for July 17, 2015

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Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD is moving downwards. As we had expected, the price tested the level of 1.6580 in a volume above the average. In the daily time frame, we can observe a weak upward bar in a volume just above the average and there is also an inside-bar formation at the level of 16677 (held successful) and a low (support) at 1.6340. Watch for a potential breakout of inside-bar support or resistance. Also, we got strong rejection from our demand trendline (support) around the level of 1.6390. Strong support is seen at the level of 1.6610. The short-term trend is neutral, but the mid-term trend is still bullish. I am still waiting for larger liquidity and stronger price actions to confirm the further direction.

Fibonacci Pivot Points :

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6780

R2: 1.6835

R3: 1.6925

Support levels:

S1: 1.6600

S2: 1.6550

S3: 1.6460

Trading recommendations: Buying EUR/NZD at this stage looks risky, since we have a fake breakout on the background.

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Gold : analysis for July 17, 2015

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Overview:

Gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $1,135.90. According to the daily time frame, we can observe a weak bearish bar in a volume below the average. According to the H4 time frame, we can observe supply in a high volume. Selling still looks risky at this stage because of the major support around $1,131.00. The trend is downward. Watch for selling opportunities only if the price breaks the level of $1,131.00.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels

R1: 1,146.00

R2: 1,145.00

R3: 1,148.00

Support levels:

S1: 1,143.00

S2: 1,142.00

S3: 1,140.00

Trading recommendations: Supply in a high volume is observed on the market. Watch for a potential breakout in a high volume of our support at $1,131.00.

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Technical analysis of Gold for July 17, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The yellow metal took out stops at the $1,143.00 levels yesterday and is pushing lower below the $1,140.00 levels at the moment. Once a rally materializes through initial resistance at the $1,167.00/70.00 levels, it would confirm that a meaningful bottom has been formed. Until then, the metal remains a candidate to be sold on rallies. It is recommended to remain flat for now and await a break below the $1,130.00 levels to commit short positions for now. Immediate support is seen at $1,130.00 levels followed by $1,081.00 and lower, while resistance is seen at $1,175.00/80.00 levels and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Silver for July 17, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver is holding above the $14.50/60 levels at the moment. The metal is seen to be trading around the $14.98 levels at the moment, and bulls would be determined to remain in control until prices stay above the $14.20/30 levels at least. On the other hand, a breakdown lower could prove to be extremely bearish for the counter. It is good to remain long until prices remain above the $14.25 levels at the moment. Immediate support is seen at $14.50/60 levels followed by $14.30 and lower, while resistance is seen at $16.40/50 levels followed by $17.20 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long for now. Stop is at $14.25, target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for July 17, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY pair is seen to be trading around the 135.00 levels at the moment. Please note that 135.00 is Fibonacci 0.618 support of the rally between 133.30 and 137.80 levels, respectively. The pair is expected to resume rally from the current levels and push through 140.00 and higher levels subsequently. It is hence recommended to remain long for now and also to add further positions with risk at the 133.00 levels. Immediate support is seen at the 133.30 levels followed by 133.00, 131.40 and lower, while resistance is seen at 137.50 (interim) followed by 139.00, 140.00, 141.00 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long for now and also add further; stop at 133.00; target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for July 17, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/CHF pair has hit the 1.5000 levels as initial expected target and sharply reversed lower. Currently, it is forming a potential bearish engulfing candlestick pattern on the H4 chart. It is recommended to take full profits on the long positions and wait for a meaningful pullback to enter long positions again. Immediate support is seen at the 1.4850 levels followed by 1.4750, 1.4550 and lower, while resistance is seen at the 1.5000 levels followed by 1.5100 and higher respectively. The pair is expected to retrace at least through the 1.4800 levels.

Trading recommendations:

Take full profits on long positions and remain flat.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of AUD/CHF for July 17, 2015

According to my previous AUD/CHF analysis, the pair failed to break above R2 (0.7092) with a daily close below that level confirming the bearish sentiment.

The R2 still remains key resistane and while the pair is trading near that level a great risk/reward trade is offered.

Consider selling AUD/CHF today near R2, targeting S1 (0.6893) area and stop loss just above the 16.07 high - 0.7108

Support: 0.7042, 0.6893

Resistance: 0.7092, 0.7108

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Technical analysis of EUR/CAD for July 17, 2015

According to my previous EUR/CAD analysis, after multiple bouces off the S1 (1.3983), this level is clearly acting as a strong support, which was rejected throughout this week over and overafter multiple bouces off the S1 (1.3983).

Today could be a day when a rally finally begins, and EUR/CAD still offers a very attractive price to buy. It seems very reasonable to get into a long trade right now targeting R2 (1.4640) area, whith the stop loss just below S1 (1.3983).

Support: 1.3983, 1.3868

Resistance: 1.4161, 1.4639

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Global macro overview for 17/07/2015

Global macro overview for 17/07/2015:

On its monthly meeting yesterday, the European Central Bank agreed to leave the current interest rate unchanged at the level of 0.05%. The deposit facility rate was left unchanged at -0.20%. That came out in line with the market expectations. Nevertheless, more attention had been paid to the ECB increase of the emergency liquidity assistance for Greece. It had been raised to the level of 900 mln euros over a week. This might be a turning point in restoring the financial help for Greek banks that had been closed for over three weeks now due to capital control and liquidity problems.

The market reaction for this news was rather muted, but the downtrend started to continue later and a daily candle closed lower at the level of 1.0875. This is another example that the market does not react euphorically on the news from Greece.

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Global macro overview for 17/07/2015

Global macro overview for 17/07/2015:

Yesterday's testimony by Federal Reserve Chairperson Janet Yellen had revealed another clues about a possible rate hikes this year. This assumption comes in line with what the most of the economist are thinking right now about the possibility of a September 2015 rate hike by FED. Over 82% of them agrees for the possibility of sooner short-term rate hike, the recent pools revealed. 15% still thinks, the FED will wait with the rate hike until December. In June, the majority had been more in favor of sooner rate hike (72% September hike vs. 9% December hike). The Fed has kept the interest rate near zero since 2008. Moreover, it hasn't raised rates since June 2006. it looks that might changer sooner than what most of the economist thinks.

The probable market reaction for the rate hike in long-term view would be:

- EUR/USD moving lower to the parity level or below

- USD index moving way higher above 100 level

- SP500, DJIA and other main economy benchmarks entering a corrective cycle ( some of them are starting to divergence already)

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for July 17, 2015

General overview for 17/07/2015:

Impulsive wave progression to the upside has not been completed yet. The last wave up labeled as wave (v) blue is currently in progress, with the projected target at the level of 1.3018. Only a sustained breakout below the level of 12886 would invalidate this view.

Support/Resistance:

1.3018 - WR3

1.2973 - Intraday Resistance

1.2897 - WR2

1.2886 - Intraday Support

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should consider opening buy orders if the level of 1.2973 is violated, with TP at the level of 1.3018 and SL at the level of 1.2945.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for July 17, 2015

General overview for 17/07/2015:

The bottom for the wave b green has been fount at the level of 134.75 and now the market is trying to break out above the dynamic golden trend-line resistance around the level of 135.26. Any breakout higher would lead to an immediate test of the weekly pivot at the level of 135.92.

Support/Resistance:

134.54 - WS1

134.74 - Intraday Support

135.26 - Intraday Resistance

135.92 - Weekly Pivot

Trading recommendations:

With today's limited volatility, daytraders still should consider opening sell orders for intraday scalp only if the level of 135.06 is clearly violated (hourly candle close below this level), with SL just above the level of 135.10 and TP at the level of 134.54.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 17, 2015

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair is expected to continue falling straight from the level of 0.6562 in the H4 chart. It is probably going to form a double bottom at the level of 0.6498. Therefore, the kiwi is showing signs of strength following the break of the lowest level of 0.6490. So, it will be a good sign to sell in the short term below the level of 00% of Fibonacci retracement in the H4 chart (0.6490) with the first target at 0.8680 and further 0.6452 in order to form a new double bottom. It should also be noted that the level of 0.6452 will act as strong support, so it is going to be a good place to take profi. Also, it should be noticed that this level will coincide with the weekly double bottom. Moreover, in case reversal takes place and NZD/USD breaks through the support level of 0.6452, the market will decline to .6405 to indicate its bearish mode.
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Notes about the NZD/USD pair on JUly 17, 2015:

  • We expect a daily range between the levels of 0.6550 and 0.6474.
  • Support sets at 0.6442.
  • Resistance will set at 0.6550.
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USDX technical analysis for July 17, 2015

The US Dollar Index has reached an important resistance area and I expect at least a short-term pullback from current levels. The trend remains bullish in all time frames, but we can see some reversal signs in the short-term.

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Blue line - horizontal resistance

The US Dollar Index remains above the Ichimoku cloud confirmingthat the trend is bullish, we have reached the previous high and an important resistance trendline. There are signs of a possible reversal, so bulls need to be very cautious. Support is found at 97.30 and then at 96.70.

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Blue line - resistance

The weekly chart shows how we are currently close to resistance. So, we need to be extra cautious. The price is above both the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators confirming a bullish trend. A break above 98 will be a very strong buy signal. My preferred scenario is the one with new highs.

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Gold technical analysis for July 17, 2015

Gold price hit another new low yesterday. The trend remains bearish in all time frames. I do not believe that the price is going to hold $1,130. Bulls continue to feel weak as they are not strong enough to make a bounce higher. The level of $1,160 is the largest short-term bounce we could see. The short-term trend will change if we break above that level.

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Blue line - resistance

Gold price remains below the Ichimoku cloud and below the downward sloping trend line. Bears continue to be in control although we could see a short-term bounce towards $1,155-58. The short-term trend will change if we see a 4-hour candle above $1,160.

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Blue line - long-term support

The weekly chart remains bearish as this week's candle has broken below the long-term trend line support. I expect more selling pressures to follow over the coming months. I remain bearish Gold.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for July 17, 2015

US unemployment claims fell last week. In the week ended July 11, an advancde figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 281,000 showing a 15,000 decrease from the previous week's revised level.

Today, traders eye US data. Building permits, CPI, and Prelim consumer sentiment are due. We expect positive readings for consumer sentiment and building permits.

The metal lost momentum again. Traders focus upon the Fed's rate hike.

In Fed William words "US economy strong sign that the Fed may raise interest rates in 2015".The possibility of the US inflation rate rose to 2 percent above the end of 2016 was 50%.Compared to last week, the situation in Greece, "a little less worrying."

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink says "Fed rate hike will make more money into the bond market, rather than less. The Fed is expected to begin normalizing interest rate path".

Today traders eye US unemployment claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing index . Fed chairwoman Yellen testifies before Senate Banking Committee.

Technical view: The pair managed to breach the previous resistance of 1.2835 today. The parallel resistance is seen at 1.2983 and 1.3063. As of now, the pair hit a high of 1.2974. In all time frames, the pair remains at bullish territory, but oscillators indicate the highly overbought market with negative mild divergences.

Intraday resistance is seen at 1.2985,1.3015 and 1.3060. From here on, the upside journey is limited. It is likely to extend towards 1.2980 or 1.3020 in the extreme case 1.3050. Use every rise to sell and hold for the next couple of days. Intraday support is found at 1.2950 and 1.2900.

Trade: Sell below 1.2950, accelerates below 1.2900

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Forecast of Gold for July 17, 2015

GOLD

The yellow metal extended losses for the 4th consecutive day as well, managed to trade above the parallel support.

US unemployment claims fell last week. In the week ended July 11, an advancde figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 281,000 showing a 15,000 decrease from the previous week's revised level.

Today, traders eye US data. Building permits, CPI, and Prelim consumer sentiment are due. We expect positive readings for consumer sentiment and building permits.

The metal lost momentum again. Traders focus upon the Fed's rate hike.

In Fed William words "US economy strong sign that the Fed may raise interest rates in 2015".The possibility of the US inflation rate rose to 2 percent above the end of 2016 was 50%.Compared to last week, the situation in Greece, "a little less worrying."

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink says "Fed rate hike will make more money into the bond market, rather than less. The Fed is expected to begin normalizing interest rate path".

Barclays says, if gold prices fell below $ 1,100.00 an ounce, the gold production will be vulnerable.

The metal has been reaching lower highs and lower lows for a while, consolidating on a lower edge of a large bearish head & shoulder. In all time frames, the precious metal lost all moving averages. On the higher side, $1,165.00 and $1,175.00 act as strong resistance levels to watch. A daily close above $1,175.00 lighten bullish views. The parallel support is found at $1,142.50.

We advised a daily close below $1,148.00, which should open gates to re-test the previous lows of $1,142.50, $1,139.00, and $1,135.00 initially extending deeper later. At yesterday's session, the metal closed below 1148.00 hitting 1142.00. From here on, we expect selling to accelerate only below $1,139.00

At today's Asian session, the metal is trading at $1,144.00 compared to Tuesday's closing price of $1,145.00. Intraday support is found at $1,142.00 and $1,139.00. Resistance is seen at $1,145.00, $1,148.00 and $1,151.00. At yesterday's session, we advised selling below $1,146.00 towards $1,144.00 and $1,142.00 and even $1,139.00. The metal reached a low at $1,142.00. A daily close below $1,139.00 opened gates to $1,129.00 and $1,122.00. Today we do not expect the metal to fall below $1,138.00. In the H1 chart, we can observe mild positive divergence; mild rebound is likely to take place during a day or two.GOLDH4 (4).png

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for July 17, 2015

The cable rejected at 20Dsma at yesterday's session. It was the 3rd consecutive day in a row. As per the recent developments of the cable, the near-term picture turned bearish as the cable is likely to re-test 1.5500.

Earlier in July, the cable broke the 20Dsma, but it is unable to close above that. It seems the near term was capped at 1.5700. A strong close above 1.5620 will bring bulls back on track. They will aim to breach 1.5700. This is likely to open gates to 1.5800 initially.

The cable broke a 3-month ascending trendline being unable to close above that. There are few factors supporting the near term-bearish view.

The 50Wsma is found at 1.5600 and the 20Wsma 1.5270. Bulls must close above 1.5600 this week to retain their momentum the next week.

Recently, the S&P lowered the British 2015 GDP growth forecast to 2.6 % (previously expected growth of 2.8%), but improves the forecast for GDP in the eurozone.

Bulls: The cable gave a break from the bullish broadening wedge closing above that. The trend favors buying on dips with sl 1.5450. The 50Dsma is found at 1.5555 and 100Dems is found at 1.5440.

Intraday support is seen at 1.5600 50Wsma and resistance is found at 1.5650 and 1.5675. Before a further move up, we expect the cable to re-test support levels of 1.5540 and 1.5500. Until the cable trades below 1.5651, the same view remains in play.

Intraday risky buying is available above 1.5670.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for July 17, 2015

EUR/USD: This market has gone below the resistance line at 1.0900. Going below that resistance means that bears have lots of energy at the moment, so long trades are not recommended now. Unless the USD loses stamina, the support line at 1.0850 could be easily tested and breached to the downside.

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USD/CHF: Since this currency trading instrument has to go in an opposite direction to the EUR/USD pair, it has succeeded in going above the support level at 0.9550. The next target to be reached is the resistance level at 0.9600; unless the USD loses stamina.

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GBP/USD: The cable has made some attempt to go further upwards this week, but there is a form of opposition at the distribution territory of 1.5650. It looks as though the price is in opposition to bears. With more buying pressure, that distribution territory could be breached to the upside.

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USD/JPY: This pair has gone above the demand level at 124.00, going towards the supply level at 124.50. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56 and the RSI period 14 is above the level of 50. The Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the chart is now very strong and further bullish movement is possible.

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EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY cross has started trending downwards owing to the weakness in EUR. A southward breakout of the recent short-term equilibrium phase means that the price could go further south. The demand zone at 134.50 could be breached to the downside.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 17, 2015

The pair extended falling below the level of 1.0900 for the second day as well . The ECB statement dominated by Greece.

The Eurogroup calls on the Greek authorities to swiftly adopt the second set of measures by July 22 as foreseen in the Euro Summit statement, and update the legislation related to the first set of measures consistent with the recommendations made by the institutions in their compliance report.

US unemployment claims fell last week. In the week ended July 11, an advancde figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 281,000 showing a 15,000 decrease from the previous week's revised level.

Today, traders eye US data. Building permits, CPI, and Prelim consumer sentiment are due. We expect positive readings for consumer sentiment and building permits.

Technical view: At yesterday's session we forecast that the pair would hit a low of 1.0860. We recommended to sell on a rise with a target at 1.0720 for a while, and we still recommend this.

In the daily chart, the pair lost all moving averages. After 7 days of consolidation at 100Dsma, it finally closed below that level the other day. The parallel support is found at 1.0820. The 20Wsma ia seen at 1.1015.

The hourly momentum oscillators indicates the extremely oversold market. Amid lack of data on the euro, US data remains in control of today's trade . We are expecting positive readings. Fresh selling is expected below yesterday's low aiming for 1.0820 and 1.0790. The panic is likely to be triggered below 1.0790 towards my earlier initial target at 1.0720.

Intraday resistance is seen at 1.0900, 1.0940, and 1.0970. Support is found at 1.0856, 1.0820, and 1.0790.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for July 17, 2015

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Technical summary:

We have seen a low of 165.84 (just below our support at 1.6590) and we think it's just a matter of time before blue wave iii moves higher towards 1.6915 and 1.7050 on its way to 1.7245. In the short term, a breakout above minor resistance at 1.6714 will confirm that the correction from 1.6812 is over and renewed strength towards 1.6915 and even 1.7050 should be expected.

Only a breakout below 1.6607 will delay the expected upside pressure for a move closer to 1.6560 before making the next attempt to push the price higher again.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.6588 with our stop placed at 1.6490. Upon a break above 1.6714, we will move our stop higher to break-even.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 17, 2015

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Technical summary:

An expanded flat took longer time than we had expected. Now, we need a break above minor resistance at 135.55 to indicate that wave ii is over and wave iii is ready to take over. Until a break above 135.55 is seen, we must accept a possibility of a move closer to 134.45 before the expanded flat finally comes to the end.

Once minor resistance at 135.55 is cleared, upside acceleration towards 141.52 should be seen.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 134.07 with stop placed at 134.25. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 134.45 or upon a break above 135.55 with stop placed at 134.25.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for July 17, 2015

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Overview:

  • The first key level is seen at 1.5650 and the second key level is seen at 1.5690 today. Also, it should be noted that both levels represent the weekly resistance 1 and resistance 2 respectively. Equally important, the weekly pivot point sets at the level of 1.5606. Moreover, the GBP/USD pair has still been moving between 1.5650 and 1.5533. Additionally, it should be mentioned that the range will be about 120 pips today. As a further matter, the trend is very clear and indicates an upward move. Accordingly, we expect that the trend is going to call for the bearish market at the level of 1.5650. As a result, buy at the level of 1.5650 with targets at 1.5583 and 1.5540 in order to test the double bottom in the H4 chart. On the other hand, your stop loss should be placed above the weekly resistance, which is seen at the level of 1.5690.
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Daily analysis of USDX for July 17, 2015

The USDX continues its impulsive journey with current bullish momentum showed on the daily chart because the Index is looking for an opportunity to break the resistance level of 97.57. However, we should expect a strong pullback at current levels because the current path tells us that resistance is so strong and could be a serious obstacle for bulls in the mid-term.

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On the H1 chart, the USDX is looking to consolidate above the resistance level of 97.72, but this could happen after a bullish pattern formation, which is currently taking place in this time frame. On the other side, we should be aware about a possible breakout of the support around the level of 97.53. If that happens, the Index could test the level of 97.21.

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Daily chart's resistance levels: 97.57 / 98.29

Daily chart's support levels: 96.57 / 95.74

H1 chart's resistance levels: 97.72 / 98.22

H1 chart's support levels: 97.53 / 97.21

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the US Dollar Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 97.72, take profit is at 98.22, and stop loss is at 97.21.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for July 17, 2015

On the daily chart, GBP/USD did an anticipated pullback. The pair is currently forming a bullish pattern. The current structure shows that the next move higher is possible because GBP/USD retraced to the 50% of Fibonacci level located at the last swing lower. The MACD indicator is entering positive territory.

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The current outlook in the short term remains bullish, because GBP/USD did a rebound above the 200 SMA, where it found dynamic support as expected. That is why we want to see a breakout above the resistance level of 1.5639, in order to reach the next important high around 1.5678. The MACD indicator is still at positive territory.

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Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5640 / 1.5755

Daily chart's support levels: 1.5543 / 1.5450

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5639 / 1.5678

H1 chart's support levels: 1.5596 / 1.5524

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.5639, take profit is at 1.5478, and stop loss is at 1.5601.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 16, 2015

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USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting the three-week high of 123.97 on Wednesday. It is underpinned by the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 97.13 versus 96.60 early Wednesday) after Federal Reserve Chairwoman Yellen reaffirmed that the central bank remained on a path to raising its interest rates this year in her semi-annual testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. The pair is also boosted by a higher-than-expected 0.4% on-month rise in the US June PPI (versus forecast +0.2%), the healthier-than-expected US July Empire State manufacturing index of 3.9 (versus forecast 3.0), and a stronger-than-expected 0.3% on-month increase in the US June industrial production (forecast +0.2%) and capacity utilization of 78.4% (versus forecast 78.1%). USD/JPY is also supported by the demand from Japan's importers and the Bank of Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy. But USD/JPY gains are tempered by the Japanese exports and lower US Treasury yields (10-year slipped 4.3 bps to 2.355% Wednesday).

Technical comment:

The daily chart is positive-biased as the MACD and stochastics are bullish, five-day moving average is above 15-day moving average and is advancing.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 124.35 and the second target at 124.60. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 123.25 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 122.85. The pivot point is at 123.60.

Resistance levels: 124.35 124.60 135

Support levels: 123.85 122.85 122.40

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for July 16, 2015

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USD/CHF is expected to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting the 2.5-month high 0.9550 on Wednesday. It is underpinned by the positive dollar sentiment, the drop in the Swiss ZEW - Credit Suisse indicator of economic sentiment to -5.4 in July from 0.1 in June, the threat of the Swiss National Bank to carry out CHF-selling intervention, and the negative Swiss interest rates.

Technical comment:

The daily chart is positive-biased as the MACD and stochastics are bullish, although the latter one is at overbought levels.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.96 and the second target at 0.9645. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9470 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.9440. The pivot point is at 0.95.

Resistance levels: 0.96 0.9645 0.9690

Support levels: 0.9470 0.9440 0.94

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 16, 2015

NZDUSDM30.png

NZD/USD is expected to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting the five-year low of 0.6561 this morning. NZD sentiment is hurt by the 10.7% drop in Fonterra's GDT Price Index and 13.1% drop in average price for whole milk powder to $1,848/ton at the latest Global Dairy Trade auction. NZD/USD is also weighed by the positive dollar sentiment, divergent monetary policy stances of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the US Federal Reserve, kiwi sales on the buoyant AUD/NZD cross, and softer-than-expected New Zealand Q2 CPI of +0.4% on-quarter (versus forecast +0.6%).

Technical comment:

The daily chart is negative-biased as stochastics is bearish, five- and 15-day moving averages are declining.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6480. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.6410. The pivot point stands at 0.6605. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to mo ve further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6670 and the second target at 0.6410.

Resistance levels: 0.6670 0.6725 0.6775

Support levels: 0.6480 0.6410 0.6360

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for July 16, 2015

GBPJPYM30.png

GBP/JPY is expected to trade with bullish bias, undermined by the soft GBP/USD undertone. The sterling sentiment is dented by the higher-than-expected UK unemployment rate of 5.6% in the three months to May (versus forecast 5.5%), weaker-than-expected 2.8% on-year rise in average weekly earnings, excluding bonuses, in the 3 months to May (versus forecast +3.0%), and a surprise 7,000 increase in the UK June jobless claimants (versus forecast -10,000).

Technical comment:

The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bearish, but stochastics is neutral.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 194 and the second target at 194.70. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 191.50 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 190.65. The pivot point is at 192.35.

Resistance levels: 194 194.70 195.50

Support levels: 191.50 190.65 190

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com