Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for October 8 - 2019

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EUR/JPY is showing the first serious signs of a bottom being in place at 117.02. We have now seen a break above minor resistance at 117.63 and we will be looking for a clear break above resistance at 118.47 to confirm that wave ii has completed and a new impulsive rally in wave iii is developing. The minimum target for wave iii is seen at 121.93 but it is likely that wave iii extend beyond 121.93 for a move closer to 125.34 before the next larger correction should be expected.

For now, look for a test of short-term important resistance at 118.47 soon.

R3: 118.47

R2: 118.18

R1: 118.02

Pivot: 117.90

S1: 117.66

S2: 117.41

S3: 117.22

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 117.20 and we will move our stop higher to 116.95

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 08/10/2019

Technical Market Overview:

The EUR/USD pair has made the last local high at the level o 1.0999 in overbought market conditions, so the price might now trade in a narrow range for a little while. Nevertheless, the bulls might decide to push it higher anyway as the price is still in a short-term ascending channel. The momentum is still strong and positive, which supports the short-term bullish outlook and the technical support located at the level of 1.0966 should hold the bears. Please remember, that the higher timeframe trend is still bearish.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1156

WR2 - 1.1079

WR1 - 1.1037

Weekly Pivot - 1.0957

WS1 - 1.0918

WS2 - 1.0839

WS3 - 1.0797

Trading recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is terminated or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larget timeframes that indicate a possible downtrend termination soon. The key short-term levels are technical support at the level of 1.0926 and the technical resistance at the level of 1.1267.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for October 8 - 2019

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GBP/JPY is currently testing short-term important resistance at 132.05. A clear break above here will indicate that red wave ii likely complete with the test of 131.20 and red wave iii higher towards 139.15 already is developing.

To confirm that red wave ii has completed, we need a break above resistance at 132.55. A break above here will signal a continuation higher to the former peak at 135.75 on the way higher to 139.15.

That said, we also need to stress that as long as resistance at 132.55 is able to cap the upside, a final dip lower to 130.78 remains a possibility, but the odds for this outcome has decreased significantly.

R3.132.89

R2: 132.55

R1: 132.25

Pivot: 132.08

S1: 131.70

S2: 131.49

S3: 131.20

Trading recommendation:

We are long GBP from 131.25 and we will raise our stop to 131.00

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Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels For EUR/USD, October 08, 2019

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When the European market opens, some economic reports will be released such as Italian Retail Sales m/m, French Trade Balance, and German Industrial Production m/m. The US will also publish the economic data such as IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, PPI m/m, Core PPI m/m, and NFIB Small Business Index, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1026. Strong Resistance: 1.1020. Original Resistance: 1.1009. Inner Sell Area: 1.0998. Target Inner Area: 1.0973. Inner Buy Area: 1.0948. Original Support: 1.0937. Strong Support: 1.0926. Breakout SELL Level: 1.0920. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels for USD/JPY, October 08, 2019

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In Asia, Japan will release the Economy Watchers Sentiment, Current Account, Household Spending y/y, and Average Cash Earnings y/y. The US will also publish some economic data such as IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, PPI m/m, Core PPI m/m, and NFIB Small Business Index. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance.3 : 107.90.

Resistance. 2: 107.69.

Resistance. 1: 107.48.

Support. 1: 107.21.

Support. 2: 107.00.

Support. 3: 106.79.

(Disclaimer)

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Forecast for EUR/USD on October 8, 2019

EUR/USD

The euro slightly fell on Monday, closing the candle below the Fibonacci level of 138.2% for the third day in a row. This behavior of the market becomes more like consolidation, which becomes a sign of at least one more jerk of the price up. Here the target level is the resistance of the MACD line on the daily scale (1.1047). The signal line of the Marlin oscillator reached the growth zone by a low value. Double convergence on the oscillator continues to work. Moving the price under the signal level of 1.0926 will reveal a decreasing scenario.

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A reversal divergence has formed on the four-hour chart according to Marlin, but it is weak in itself, since the price was only one point higher than the peaks of the previous peaks, and the signal line still remains in the growth zone. Price is developing above the lines of balance and MACD - this is a sign of the continued upward trend. Price consolidation is noticeable in more detail in this chart.

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So, for the development of the medium-term downward movement, the price must first be consolidated below the MACD line at H4 (1.0953), and the price will go under the signal level of 1.0926 as a direct signal to start. It is possible for the euro to increase to the immediate target of 1.1047 after consolidating above 1.0985.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on October 8, 2019

GBP/USD

Yesterday, the British pound lost more than 40 points - the price was supported, as in the previous five days, by a line of balance on the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator penetrated a little deeper into the decline zone, but more reliable signals for further downward movement have not yet been formed.

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On a four-hour chart, the price, like on Monday, remains stuck between the lines of balance and MACD. The Marlin entered the negative trend zone, but not yet deep enough to be a condition for the continuation of the retention of the local trend.

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The price cannot gain a foothold under the line of balance on both charts under consideration, which indicates the retention of market interest in growth. With the same probability, the price may rise to the level of 1.2375 and fall to 1.2230. Overcoming the upper level will make it possible for the growth trend to develop to the line of the price channel (daily) 1.2485, overcoming the lower level will allow the price to develop a further decline to 1.2155.

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GBP/USD. Pound is still hostage to Brexit

Dollar pairs to one degree or another react to US events, tracking the dynamics of the impeachment procedure and statements by the Federal Reserve representatives. However, the pound-dollar pair continues to be in its coordinate system, where Brexit remains a priority topic. This fact needs to be reminded right now, since at the end of the week increased volatility is expected for both the dollar and the British currency. And if the greenback will respond to the results of the US-Chinese negotiations, the pound will be active for completely different reasons. This is the insidious situation: GBP/USD will not follow the dollar index, so the dynamics of this pair may differ from the dynamics of other dollar pairs.

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While the financial world awaits the outcome of another round of trade negotiations, the pound is awaiting the EU verdict regarding Boris Johnson's new Brexit proposals. Last weekend, the French president assured the British prime minister that by the end of this week he will agree on a position with his European colleagues. He also noted that negotiations on this issue will intensify in the coming days, after which the team of Michel Barnier will present his assessment of the situation: whether the proposals of the British prime minister comply with the principles of the European Union or not.

Judging by the rhetoric of many EU representatives, the answer to this question will be negative. The backstop problem is still unsolvable: by and large, Brussels requires London to have Northern Ireland within the European customs zone, while this scenario is opposed to both Downing Street and the House of Commons. All alternative proposals are already rejected by representatives of Europe. For three years, the negotiating groups tried to resolve this rebus, but in vain. These or those proposals are blocked either in Brussels, or in the British government, or in the British Parliament. Within the framework of this triangle, the parties need to agree on the notorious back-stop mechanism, however, all previous attempts ended in failure. Therefore, with a high degree of probability, it can be suggested that the current negotiations will end in a similar way.

In fact, the parties continue to stand their ground. In the course of his speech, Boris Johnson once again announced yesterday that he had made a "generous, reasonable and fair" compromise proposal to Brussels and now expects Europeans to take reciprocal steps. In his opinion, the EU should show "political flexibility" by agreeing on the proposed ideas.

However, the EU representatives were mostly skeptical of the plan, which has the code name "Two Borders for Four Years." Many of the provisions of this plan were perceived by the Europeans "with hostility." Firstly, Johnson proposes to give the legislature of Northern Ireland a veto: by and large, local deputies will decide the fate of back-up every 4 years. But at the same time, the deputies of this legislative body themselves cannot hold a single meeting for the past three years, due to the lack of a quorum. Brussels will definitely not endow the Assembly of Northern Ireland with such powerful leverage.

In addition, the British prime minister proposed to organize a "translucent" border between Ireland. According to him, customs checks will return to the island - both on land and at sea - but they will be practically invisible to those crossing the border. Nevertheless, the border is de facto returned, and customs posts, even at a remote distance from the borders, remain customs posts, regardless of their location. This proposal does not suit many politicians - both among Europeans and among the British.

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Thus, the probability of a deal based on the plan proposed by Johnson is practically zero. At the same time, one cannot exclude the possibility that Brussels will put forward counter proposals that London will agree to - but given the background to the negotiation process, this option is also unlikely. This means that in the near future the pound will be under strong pressure, as the "hard" Brexit will appear again on the horizon.

If the parties do not agree on the general provisions of the updated deal before the EU summit (which will be held October 17-18), the Johnson government has two options: either apply for a postponement of Brexit, or leave the EU without an agreement, contrary to the legislative decision of the House of Commons. In any case, the pound will be under pressure after the announcement of a negative response from Brussels - in this case, panic will increase in the market regarding the implementation of the hard scenario. In turn, the GBP/USD pair, will resume the downward movement, at least to around 1.2130 (the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud on the daily chart), with the main goal in the area of annual lows (1.1950-1.1980 range).

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Forecast for USD/JPY on October 8, 2019

USD/JPY

After the price reversal from the support of the MACD line on the daily chart on October 3rd, the dollar continued its successful climb, overcoming the resistance of the green ascending price channel. Overcoming the top of yesterday's price will be a signal to continue growth to the first goal of 108.12. Exit above the resistance opens the second target at 108.95. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is still in the zone of negative numbers, but with the price overcoming the high of Monday, Marlin will enter the growth zone.

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On a four-hour scale, the price is struggling with the MACD line, but here, going above the key level (October 7 high) will solve this struggle in favor of the price.

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The negative scenario, having a 25% probability, suggests another price reduction to support the MACD line on the daily chart (106.50).

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Fractal analysis of Bitcoin on October 8

Forecast for October 8:

Analytical review of cryptocurrency on a scale of H1:

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For the Bitcoin instrument, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 9026.00, 8811.75, 8666.36, 8379.42, 8287.60, 8039.21, 7893.53 and 7698.41. Attention! This instrument is characterized by medium-term trend trading. Here, as expected, the price formed a local structure for the top of October 7. In addition, this instrument has a good correlation with the euro / yen. The range for entering the market for the purchase is 7948.00 - 8380.00. We expect the development of the upward cycle after the price passes the noise range 8287.60 - 8379.42. In this case, the first goal is 8666.36. Meanwhile, price consolidation is in the range of 8666.36 - 8811.75, as well as a possible rollback to correction. The potential value for the top, where it makes sense to close the position - 9026.00.

The range 8039.21 - 7893.53 is a key support for the ascending structure. Its passage at the price will lead to the cancellation of this structure. In this case, the first goal is 7698.41. However, to trade in a downward direction, it makes sense when the local initial conditions for a downward cycle are formed.

The main trend is the initial conditions for the top of October 7.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 7948.00 - 8380.00 Stop Loss: 7891.00 Take profit: 8666.36

To continue :

Stop Loss: 8287.60 Take profit: 9026.00

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AUDUSD-weekly signal

Good day, dear traders. Congratulations to all on the new trading week!

So, last week ended with traditional statistics on the US labor market. It would seem that the drop in unemployment at the 50-year low should be positive for the dollar, but in general the state of the labor market is worrying. The fact is that big employment implies the absence of positive dynamics of job growth and suggests that there will also be no further growth at least. The number of new jobs is falling - this is a mathematical fact. The rate reduction in October and December is 73% and 90%, and this can be earned on instruments with USD.

In my opinion, the most oversold instrument from the "majors" is AUDUSD. The last blow to this instrument was a decrease (albeit predicted, but still) in the interest rate on AUD by a quarter basis point. The pair fell for the third time to the lows of the year, exposing a false breakout. On the weekly TF, the "pin-bar at the extreme" pattern has formed, which I propose to work on increasing.

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Let me remind you that the AUDUSD pair is not only AUD. News on USD sometimes affects it more than on the base currency. And by and large, the rebound from the lows on Thursday was due to disastrous data on the index of business activity in the non-productive sector. Therefore, to maintain the bullish trend for the AUDUSD pair, it is necessary to follow the negative news from the US, which will push this pair up.

Observe risk management and success in trading!

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Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs for October 8

Forecast for October 8:

Analytical review of currency pairs in scale H1:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1074, 1.1044, 1.1030, 1.1007, 1.0991, 1.0966, 1.0945 and 1.0918. Here, we continue to monitor the development of the ascending structure of October 1. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range 1.0991 - 1.1007. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.1030. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.1030 - 1.1044. We consider the level 1.1074 to be a potential value for the top; upon reaching this value, we expect a rollback to correction.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range 1.0966 - 1.0945, hence, the high probability of a reversal to the top. The breakdown of the level of 1.0945 will lead to the development of a protracted corrective movement. Here, the target is 1.0918.

The main trend is the upward structure of October 1.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1007 Take profit: 1.1030

Buy 1.1045 Take profit: 1.1074

Sell: 1.0966 Take profit: 1.0947

Sell: 1.0943 Take profit: 1.0920

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2573, 1.2493, 1.2422, 1.2374, 1.2311, 1.2279, 1.2243 and 1.2203. Here, the price forms the medium-term initial conditions for the upward movement of October 1 and is currently in the correction zone for this structure. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.237. In this case, the target is 1.2422. The breakdown of which should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the goal is 1.2493, near this level is a price consolidation. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.2573. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

We expect consolidated movement in the range 1.2311 - 1.2279. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.2243. This level is a key support for the top. Its breakdown will allow you to count on movement to a potential target - 1.2203.

The main trend is the formation of a medium-term upward structure from October 1.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2375 Take profit: 1.2420

Buy: 1.2424 Take profit: 1.2490

Sell: 1.2277 Take profit: 1.2245

Sell: 1.2240 Take profit: 1.2205

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0027, 0.9999, 0.9974, 0.9957, 0.9921, 0.9892, 0.9872 and 0.9845. Here, we are following the formation of the downward potential of October 3. The continuation of the development of the downward trend is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9921. In this case, the target is 0.9892. Price consolidation is in the range of 0.9892 - 0.9872. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.9845. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 0.9957 - 0.9974. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.9999. This level is a key support for the downward structure. Its breakdown will lead to the development of the upward movement. Here, the potential target is 1.0027.

The main trend is the descending structure of October 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9976 Take profit: 0.9999

Buy : 1.0003 Take profit: 1.0027

Sell: 0.9920 Take profit: 0.9892

Sell: 0.9870 Take profit: 0.9845

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 108.39, 108.14, 107.80, 107.51, 107.10, 106.90, 106.54 and 106.27. Here, the price forms the potential for the top of October 4. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 107.51. In this case, the target is 107.80. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 107.80 will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the goal is 108.14. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 108.39. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 107.10 - 106.90. The breakdown of the last value will have the downward structure. In this case, the first target is 106.54. As a potential value for the bottom, we consider the level 106.27.

The main trend: the formation of the upward potential of October 4.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 107.51 Take profit: 107.80

Buy : 107.82 Take profit: 108.12

Sell: 107.10 Take profit: 106.92

Sell: 106.88 Take profit: 106.60

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3369, 1.3350, 1.3336, 1.3304, 1.3287 and 1.3254. Here, the price forms the medium-term initial conditions for the top of October 2. Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range 1.3336 - 1.3350. From here, we expect a key reversal in the correction. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.3369.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 1.3304 - 1.3287. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3254. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the formation of medium-term initial conditions of October 2.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3336 Take profit: 1.3350

Buy : 1.3352 Take profit: 1.3369

Sell: 1.3304 Take profit: 1.3390

Sell: 1.3285 Take profit: 1.3260

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6868, 0.6838, 0.6815, 0.6782, 0.6772, 0.6746, 0.6730 and 0.6710. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of October 2. At the moment, the price is in the correction zone. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the price passes the noise range 0.6772 - 0.6782. In this case, the target is 0.6815. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 0.6815 - 0.6838 . For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.6868. The movement to which is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.6840.

Consolidated movement is possibly in the range of 0.6746 - 0.6730. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the potential target is 0.6710. This level is a key support for the ascending structure.

The main trend is the ascending structure of October 2, the correction stage.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6782 Take profit: 0.6815

Buy: 0.6817 Take profit: 0.6836

Sell: 0.6729 Take profit: 0.6710

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 118.75, 118.54, 118.21, 117.94, 117.58, 117.38, 117.25 and 117.06. Here, the price forms the potential for the top of October 4. The continuation of the development of the ascending structure is expected after the breakdown of the level of 117.95. In this case, the goal is 118.21. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown at the price level of 118.21 will lead to the development of pronounced movement. Here, the goal is 118.54. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 118.75. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

A correction is expected after the breakdown of the level of 117.58. Here, the target is 117.38. The range 117.38 - 117.25 is the key support for the top. Its passage at the price will lead to the development of a downward structure. Here, the goal is 117.06.

The main trend is the formation of potential for the top of October 4.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 117.95 Take profit: 118.20

Buy: 118.23 Take profit: 118.54

Sell: 117.56 Take profit: 117.40

Sell: 117.25 Take profit: 117.07

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 134.58, 133.36, 132.72, 131.45, 130.78 and 129.88. Here, we are following the development of the descending structure of September 20. Short-term movement to the bottom is expected in the range 131.45 - 130.78. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to movement to a potential target - 129.88, when this level is reached, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 132.72 - 133.36. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the target is 134.58. We also expect the formation of expressed initial conditions for the upward cycle to this level.

The main trend is the descending structure of September 20.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 132.72 Take profit: 133.30

Buy: 133.40 Take profit: 134.55

Sell: 131.43 Take profit: 130.80

Sell: 130.74 Take profit: 129.90

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Dollar and euro await news from the trade front, while the pound packs its suitcases

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When the head of the White House, Donald Trump, praised the US labor market, noting a decline in unemployment to 3.5% (the lowest level in the last fifty years), he apparently forgot to talk about production problems. In September, the number of jobs in this sector of the US economy decreased by 2 thousand, and only 41 thousand were created in the nine months of this year, while in the same period in 2018 - 188 thousand. The growth of Non-Farm Payrolls by 136 thousand last month was below the average for the previous twelve months (177 thousand). It is obvious that the US economy is slowing down, however, as long as employment in the country grows faster than the population, unemployment may decline further. This circumstance allows us to hope that the United States will nevertheless be able to avoid a recession.

According to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, the regulator's main task is to extend the expansion of national GDP. During his Friday speech, he once again emphasized that the US economy is still in good shape, although it is faced with headwinds. A similar view is held by the Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Richard Clarida. He noted that the central bank does not follow a predetermined course and will act accordingly, given the slowdown in global economic growth. FOMC hawks - presidents of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Cleveland and Kansas City (Eric Rosengren, Loretta Mester and Esther George) - believe that the regulator will make decisions based on incoming data.

After the release of the September report on the US labor market in the United States and the speeches of several representatives of the US central bank, the chances of reducing the federal funds rate by 25 basis points in October fell from 88% to 80%, but the likelihood of such a move is still high. Recall that a week ago it was 40-50%.

The wide potential for easing the Fed's monetary policy, the euro sellers playing a trump card such as the expectation of the European QE's revival, as well as weak statistics on business activity in the United States, support the bulls in EUR/USD. At the same time, politics is on the side of the bears. The Global Political Risk Index literally floats in the clouds, spurring demand for defensive assets.

In this regard, news from the trade front, as well as about the course of negotiations between London and Brussels on the terms of Brexit should cause more interest than the publication of the minutes of the September meetings of the FOMC and the Governing Council of the ECB.

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Analysts are not too optimistic about the outcome of the visit to Washington of the China chief negotiator, Vice Premier Liu He, scheduled for October 10. They recommend that the market prepare for the introduction in mid-October of the previously announced US new duties on Chinese imports. According to analysts, the hype around the impeachment procedure of Donald Trump will not contribute to the deal. Specialists at Pacific Investment Management Co. predict that China is unlikely to make serious concessions given the weakening position of the US president.

In addition, in the middle of October, a new front may appear in the trade war. The WTO has completed an investigation into a possible Airbus subsidy and has given the US a green light to raise duties on EU goods worth $7.5 billion. Europe is expected to respond to US tariffs.

Meanwhile, the fate of Brexit, to which less than four weeks remain, remains uncertain.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson's proposals on Brexit at first glance had a greater chance of gaining approval in the EU and wider support in the national Parliament than the initiatives of his predecessor Theresa May. However, the EU needs additional details - this was made clear in Brussels, and indeed in Britain itself. Although B. Johnson managed to win Eurosceptics to his side, the voices of the opposition, including the Labour Party, remain unattainable for him. It seems that everything is going to the next Brexit postponement, which they are already beginning to put up with on the continent, but B. Johnson promised to close all issues on October 31.

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The day before, the British prime minister confirmed his readiness to withdraw the country from the EU at the previously indicated time.

"We will pack our bags and prepare for the exit by October 31. The only question is whether the EU will meet us with a mutually acceptable deal or will we be forced to leave like that," said B. Johnson.

Thus, the British prime minister is trying to put pressure on Brussels, convincing it to agree with London's latest proposals for Brexit.

According to The Times, the EU provided B. Johnson with one week to make the Brexit plan acceptable. Otherwise, the EU will refuse to discuss it at the summit to be held on October 17-18.

It is unlikely that the British prime minister will be able to come up with a breakthrough by the end of this week. This will mean only one thing - the "hard" exit of the UK from the EU at the end of this month and, accordingly, the weakening of the pound.

Analysts warn that if this scenario is realized, not only the British currency, but also the euro will be hit.

"If the United Kingdom and the EU fail to make a deal before the end of this month, shares on both sides of the English Channel will collapse, and with them the euro," said Markus Schomer, chief economist at PineBridge Investments.

"In the case of Brexit, without agreement, the single European currency may again plunge to around $1.05, and after the initial shock, the euro risks continuing to collapse," predicts UBS strategist Bhanu Baweja.

Neither the September US labor market report nor Friday's speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell clarified the medium-term prospects for EUR/USD. The main currency pair is waiting for news from Washington, London and Brussels. The bulls still expect to storm the resistance at 1.10 in order to advance the quotes to 1.104-1.105. However, the fall of EUR/USD below 1,096-1,0965 may disrupt their plans.

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At a breakneck height: recession as a "lift" for gold

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Statements by a number of economists about the risk of a recession in the US economy are gaining momentum. Experts analyzed how the implementation of such a scenario will affect the price of gold, and concluded that the precious metal will appreciably rise in price.

Strategists at Goldman Sachs, the largest US bank, are confident that in the fourth quarter of this year, the cost of the yellow metal will rise to $1,600 per ounce. The reason for this, analysts believe a high probability of a recession in the US economy. Analysts of the leading analytical company Independent Strategy agree with them. They claim that in 2020, the price of gold may increase by 30% from the current key value of $1,500. Accordingly, it can reach $2000 per ounce, according to the Independent Strategy.

The appreciation of precious metals will be facilitated by the desire of market participants to maintain their capital. It is known that gold is best suited for this purpose, and the increased demand for yellow metal pushes its value up. Analysts are very optimistic about the future prospects of the gold market. They are confident that the precious metal will receive support for growth amid fear of a recession in the US economy. Note that the main threats to financial markets are weak data on the US labor market and a slowdown in economic growth.

Currently, the XAU/USD pair is trading near the levels of 1502-1503. According to analysts, the price of gold has generated two signals over the past month, one of which shows a direction to increase, the other - to decline. After the breakdown of the support level of 1487.70, the price of the precious metal may fall to the target level of 1418.25. In the case of a positive scenario and an update of the level of 1557.20, gold can reach the target level of 1595.00, analysts said. In the long run, due to increasing instability in the global economy, analysts recommend opening long positions in precious metals.

At the moment, the yellow metal is trading in the range of $1,505– $1,507 per ounce, completing the correction phase. Gold prices recovered the lion's share of the previous loss in relation to major currencies, as global stock markets fell after the US due to the weakest data on production in the US. At the moment, the score is 1:0 in favor of the precious metal, which plays into the hands of the high probability of monetary policy easing by regulators of Australia and Japan.

In the short term, the yellow metal could quickly return to local resistance at $1,530 per ounce, analysts warn. For further take-off to multi-year highs, powerful geopolitical or economic triggers will be required, the main of which may be the risk of a recession in the United States. Goldman Sachs analysts emphasize that the long-term forecast for the cost of precious metals is highly dependent on economic growth in the United States. Analysts recall the growing risk of a recession in the US economy, which is increasing annually. Goldman Sachs believes that the recession in the United States will become a kind of "lift" for gold, capable of pushing the precious metal to the next price peaks.

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Yen sits at the negotiating table

The publication of the minutes of the Fed and ECB meetings, the release of data on US inflation, or the consideration of the draft agreement between Britain and the EU submitted by Boris Johnson will not be the main event of the week by October 11. Investors' attention will be focused on the next round of US-China trade negotiations. Much depends on their outcome: will US stock indices rewrite record highs; whether the upward trend in yen, franc and gold will continue; will the global economy feel the low? Against this background, the AUD/JPY pair quite naturally attracts interest. It is traditionally perceived as the main indicator of investor risk appetite and is likely to show good movement as soon as the results of the visit of the Chinese delegation to Washington become known.

If the yen has consistently been among the best performers among the G10 currencies over the past three years, speculative rates on the Australian dollar are in the red zone for the 17th consecutive month. In the third quarter, the AUD/USD pair plunged by almost 4%, and reached a 10-year low in August. In an effort to protect Australia from adverse headwinds, primarily related to trade wars, the RBA does not get tired of easing monetary policy. It has already reduced the cash rate three times in the past few months, bringing the rate to a record low level of 0.75%. Goldman Sachs believes that this will not end there: for growth and stabilization of inflation within the targeted range of 2-3%, the Reserve Bank will have to lower the cost of borrowing to 0.25% and launch an asset purchase program for AU $ 200 billion.

Dynamics of cash rate and Australian dollar rate

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Japan has a completely different mood. The Bank of Japan representatives are increasingly talking about the side effects of the negative interest rate program. They would like to get rid of it, but inflation stubbornly does not want to go to the target of 2%. Tokyo is not going to blindly follow Washington and Frankfurt, which is one of the important factors supporting the yen. Among its other trump cards is a favorable external background for safe haven assets. The uncertainty surrounding the US-China conflict, the impeachment of Donald Trump and Brexit, supports the demand for reliable currencies.

If trade wars put sticks in the wheels of one (AUD) and lend a helping hand to others (JPY), then their completion can turn everything upside down. If a breakthrough awaits us, the global economy will finally be able to find the ground under its feet, the global risk appetite will improve, and the RBA will abandon the idea of further easing monetary policy. The aussie will be one of the main beneficiaries of the thaw. On the contrary, another failure of negotiations and an increase in duties from mid-October will allow the bears to continue to move down the USD/JPY and AUD/JPY.

Technically, the situation in the last pair looks twofold. The growth of quotations above resistance by 72.9 with their subsequent exit beyond the descending trading channel will increase the risks of activating the "Ideal Butterfly" pattern with a target of 127.2%. On the contrary, a successful assault on support at 71.2 will allow the bears to count on an early recovery of the downward trend.

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GBP/USD and EUR/USD: The EU is unhappy with the proposal of Boris Johnson. Data on the US economy put traders in a dead end

The British pound and the euro remained in the side channel after the data on the American labor market was released on Friday, as well as after a clearer EU position regarding the new Brexit plan proposed by Boris Johnson.

As it became known, French President Emanuel Macron recommended that Boris Johnson radically revise his Brexit plan before the end of the week, which seriously increases the chances of failure of negotiations. Macron noted that the plan proposed by Britain last week was not considered in Brussels as the basis for the deal, and advised Johnson to think again before the upcoming EU summit.

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Let me remind you that the French president officially refused to meet with the Prime Minister personally, and during a telephone conversation, he insisted that negotiations should be advanced only through Michel Barnier, the EU's chief negotiator.

Macron's message to Johnson was repeated by Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, who said the EU would not accept an agreement that would create a customs border in Ireland. "There are a number of unresolved issues in the proposed UK plan," said Rutte.

Thus, opposition of the Parliament are expected to push for a vote calling for the publication of a full 40-page legal text of the Brexit alternative plan, which was partially introduced last week by Boris Johnson. Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer said it's important to see the legal details because there are doubts that a government proposal inevitably means the introduction of infrastructure on the Northern Ireland border, contrary to the Prime Minister's assurances made last Thursday.

From all this, it is worth concluding that the confrontation is only intensifying, which could negatively affect the quotations of the British pound in the near future. However, if official that London makes concessions and manages to clarify the situation around the proposal, and it is likely that demand for the pound will continue.

As regards the technical picture of the GBP/USD pair, major support remains in the region of the minimum of 1.2275. The breakthrough of which can quickly push the trading instrument to the minimum of the month in the area of 1.2200. If the buyers of the pound manage to break above the resistance of 1.2350, then this scenario can lead to a larger upward correction to the area of maximums 1.2410 and 1.2480.

EUR/USD

Friday's data that employers in the US last month maintained fairly high rates of employment and unemployment reached a 50-year low did not provide strong support for the US dollar.

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According to a report by the U.S. Department of Labor, the number of non-farm jobs in September 2019 increased by 136,000, while the unemployment rate fell to a record 3.5%. Back in August, unemployment was 3.7%. However, economists predicted a larger increase in the number of jobs by 145,000, and the unemployment rate unchanged.

On the other hand, the good news for the Federal Reserve was the data that the average hourly earnings in the United States showed a growth of 2.9% compared with September 2018. However, this is a bit slower than in the last few months. The good condition of the American labor market leaves a chance for inflation to reach a target level of about 2.0% in the near future. Unfortunately, the decline in production activity within the country and beyond is a negative factor for the economy.

The US trade deficit increased in August, which clearly did not please the American president. According to the US Department of Commerce, the deficit in trade in goods and services in August 2019 increased by 1.6% compared to the previous month and amounted to $ 54.9 billion. Economists had expected the deficit to reach $ 54.5 billion in August. Imports in August, in turn, grew by only 0.5% compared with the previous month, while exports increased by 0.2%.

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In his speech last Friday, the Fed chairman said that the US economy is in good shape despite the risks present, and the Fed's task is not to "juggle interest rates," but to make US economic growth as long as possible. Jerome Powell also noted that low inflation and low interest rates leave the Fed less space to lower rates during recessions. "The Committee needs to explore new strategies for more sustainable achievement of the target inflation rate of 2%," the head of the Fed added. Powell also once again drew attention to the fact that the Fed has strong protection against short-term political pressure, hinting at independence from criticism of the American president.

As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, it remained unchanged. Only a breakthrough of resistance level 1.0995 will provide an entry of new large buyers, which will lead to risky assets to new maximums in the region of 1.1030 and 1.1070. If the bears cope with the support in the area of 1.0955, then its break will provide new pressure on the trading instrument, as well as lead the pair to update the minimums of 1.0930 and 1.0900.

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EUR/USD. October 7. Results of the day. Fed cuts the rate for third consecutive time

4-hour timeframe

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Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 63p - 64p - 60p - 58p - 43p.

Average volatility over the past 5 days: 58p (average).

The first trading day of the week was absolutely calm for the EUR/USD pair. During the day, the pair made a jerk down and then up, thus preserving a weak upward trend, and consolidated above the Ichimoku cloud, strengthening the signal to buy the "Golden Cross". However, despite the signal from Ichimoku, despite the upward trend, which has been observed for more than a week, there is still doubt that the bulls are able to begin the formation of an upward trend. Buyers of the euro remain too weak as there are few fundamental reasons for buying the euro. Even the Friday statistics, which were perceived differently by market participants, upon closer examination are, if not clearly in favor of the dollar, then not against it. Nonfarm Payrolls showed good value, although slightly below the forecast, the Nonfarm revision for the previous two months showed an increase of 45,000 non-farm jobs. The unemployment rate is the lowest for 50 years. Yes, wages in September did not increase as investors expected to see, but any indicator cannot show a constant increase in growth rates. Thus, we believe that Friday statistics from overseas can be considered positive for the US currency. So the question is: why has the US dollar not yet resumed strengthening?

It is likely that the answer to this question is very banal - a technical correction. Any pair or instrument cannot constantly move in one direction, all the same there should be corrections and kickbacks. Perhaps now is just such a moment. We have already noted more than once that traders are not too interested in topics with the possible impeachment of Donald Trump, with the US President's trade wars, and negotiations in the framework of these trade wars. They are interested in macroeconomic statistics and actions of the Federal Reserve. Both remain in favor of the US dollar. Yes, even the actions of the Fed at the last two meetings can be attributed in favor of the US currency, if we consider just the EUR/USD pair. The ECB's monetary policy is much more "dovish", despite two rate cuts from the Fed. We suggest that traders ask themselves once again: why does the Fed lower rates if macroeconomic indicators are not so bad? Afraid of the negative effects of trade wars? Amenable to constant criticism of Trump? He believes that the US president is right in his calls to soften monetary policy as quickly as possible? We believe that all together. That is, from whatever angle you look at this problem, you can still see Donald Trump. Even now, independent analytical agencies give a more than 80% chance of a key rate cut in October.

Thus, we believe that Trump will achieve his goal in the future, the key rate will be reduced to 1% at least. And then you can really expect the formation of an upward trend for the euro/dollar pair. Now the US economy remains too strong compared to the European one, and this is precisely what gives traders no reason to buy the euro.

From a technical point of view, in the coming days we can expect the strengthening of the euro to the first resistance level of 1.1026. Two speeches by Jerome Powell can strengthen or weaken the upward movement of the currency pair, as these are still important events for the currency market as a whole. However, if these statements are similar in rhetoric to Friday, then a special reaction of the Forex market can not be expected.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues a weak upward movement. Thus, it is recommended to consider buying the pair while aiming for 1.1026 and 1.1049, but in small lots and with extreme caution, as the bulls remain extremely weak. It is recommended to return to the pair's sales not earlier than consolidating the price below the critical Kijun-sen line.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. Chinese maneuver or bet on the vulnerability of Donald Trump

The euro-dollar pair continues to trade in the flat, although the US currency is not going through the best of times: alarming rumors about the prospects for trade negotiations between the US and China put pressure on the greenback, and this fact allows EUR/USD bulls to keep the pair near the boundaries of the 10th figure. On the other hand, the euro is also under pressure from weak macroeconomic reports. Such a contradictory fundamental picture holds the price within a fairly narrow band, preventing sellers and buyers from showing character.

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After a relatively small decline, the dollar index actually froze in anticipation of the next information drivers. The market is clearly discouraged by recent events, which indicate a weakening of Trump's position and tightening of China's positions in the upcoming negotiations. And if analysts had previously assumed that the Chinese would postpone the deal until the US presidential election (with the hope of Biden's victory), now China's strategy has changed, insiders say, Beijing will try to impose its terms of the trade agreement by inviting Washington to conclude a limited deal.

The White House spokeswoman today announced a meeting of representatives of the United States and China, confirming, firstly, the very fact of the planned meeting, and secondly, voicing the main topics of negotiations. It is noteworthy that the list contains such issues as reforming the industrial policy of China, industrial subsidies and intellectual property. However, according to available information, Beijing has not included the above topics in its list of proposals. According to an insider of American journalists, China decided to "bargain" more favorable terms of the deal for itself. If their plan is implemented, China will be able to remove restrictive barriers to Chinese imports, while leaving strategically important issues for itself outside the brackets of negotiations.

Let me remind you that in the spring of this year, Beijing and Washington were unable to agree on all points of a future trade deal, although Trump and many representatives of the Chinese negotiating group assured that the agreement was "90% complete". Nevertheless, the US president raised duties on Chinese goods without waiting for the end of negotiations, thereby increasing geopolitical tensions. The United States accused China of refusing part of the agreements reached in the negotiations: in particular, the Chinese refused to change national laws to protect the intellectual property of US companies, and also refused to carry out reforms in their country's industrial sphere.

Apparently, this time China repeated its maneuver and again refused to discuss the above topics. Only now Donald Trump cannot just as easily "slam the door", thereby continuing the trade war. According to opinion polls, the latest escalation of the trade war hit the rating positions of the US president quite strongly. Then the state-owned companies of the People's Republic of China "by order" stopped buying products of American farms - the Chinese with this step delivered Trump not only an economic, but also a political blow. In those states of America where agriculture predominates (in particular, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, the Great Plains region), the electoral position of the incumbent president has noticeably shaken.

Given the ongoing scandal on the political Olympus of the United States, Trump is in a difficult situation: on the one hand, another escalation of the trade war will inevitably lead to electoral losses, on the other hand, the deal that is openly disadvantageous to Washington will be perceived by the Americans as a defeat - especially after such belligerent statements by the head White House. Therefore, it is quite difficult to predict the outcome of trade negotiations. As well as the reaction of the dollar to a possible failure in the negotiations. Indeed, in this case, with a high degree of probability, the Federal Reserve will continue to lower the interest rate, playing ahead of schedule and leveling the negative consequences of the slowdown in the global economy. This fact will put pressure on the US currency.

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But also do not forget that such a scenario will provoke a "domino effect": not only the US economy, but also the export-oriented German economy, which is the "locomotive" of the eurozone, will be hit. Such prospects are fraught with retaliatory actions on the part of the ECB, especially since representatives of the European regulator and without an escalation of the trade war allow further easing of monetary policy. In addition, if Washington and Beijing disappoint traders again, anti-risk sentiment will increase in the foreign exchange market and the dollar will again turn from a "victim" into a defensive tool. During the last round of the trade conflict, the greenback was a kind of safe-haven, demonstrating an illogical, at first glance, growth.

But at the moment, the fundamental picture is not in favor of the US currency. Conflicting data on labor market growth and a rather weak forecast for inflation growth in September (the release is scheduled for Thursday) do not allow dollar bulls to dominate the pair. Therefore, we are seeing an uncertain but very persistent corrective growth of EUR/USD.

At the moment, the pair has approached the "round" resistance level of 1.1000 (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart). If buyers overcome this target, the next resistance level will be the price 1.1070 - the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud at D1, which coincides with the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator. This price mark is the "ceiling" for the bulls of the pair - to overcome it, a massive weakening of the dollar across the market is necessary. The support level is still the 1.0880 mark - this is the bottom line of the Bollinger Bands indicator both on the daily and weekly charts.

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Simplified wave analysis for October 7. EUR / USD: calm on the market; AUD / USD: preparing to decline; GBP / JPY: time of

EUR/USD

Analysis:

On the euro chart, two upward models of different scales are formed right away and both have the wrong kind of structure. The bullish zigzag of September 3 is at the end of a larger wave of August 1. In the small model, the final part (C) reached intermediate resistance.

Forecast:

Before a further price breakthrough, a correctional phase is likely. Today, a "sideways" is expected between the nearest oncoming zones. At the next session, a short-term decline of the pair is possible.

Potential reversal zones

Resistance:

- 1.1000 / 1.1030

Support:

- 1.0940 / 1.0910

Recommendations:

Today, the most promising tactics of trade will be the purchase of the euro in the lower boundary of the price range. Selling a pair makes sense only within the trading session, tracking all the oncoming signals.

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AUD/USD

Analysis:

The AUD chart is dominated by a bearish trend. Its last direction started on September 12. In its framework, a hidden correction has been formed since the end of September. The structure looks complete. The final section (C) reached the lower boundary of the calculation zone. There are no reversal signals on the chart.

Forecast:

There is a high probability of completion of the current correction in the framework of the calculated resistance. Today, a second attempt to pressure this zone is expected. By the end of the day, the chance of a reversal and the beginning of a decline increases.

Potential reversal zones

Resistance:

- 0.6780 / 0.6810

Support:

- 0.6720 / 0.6690

Recommendations:

When buying a pair today, the limited upside potential should be taken into account. In the resistance area, it is recommended to focus on the search for pivot signals and points of sale of the instrument.

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GBP/JPY

Analysis:

On the cross-instrument chart, the price has been decreasing over the past month, forming a correction of the previous bullish section. Its internal structure looks complete. The price is approaching the upper zone of a wide zone of potential reversal of a large TF. There are no signals of course change.

Forecast:

In the coming sessions, a general flat mood is expected. In the morning, the price will continue to decline. By the end of the day, the probability of a reversal and the beginning of a price increase increases.

Potential reversal zones

Resistance:

- 132.00 / 132.30

Support:

- 131.20 / 130.90

Recommendations:

Prior to the appearance of clear reversal signals, cross-instrument sales are a priority. Due to the small size of the expected downward movement, the lot should be reduced. In the area of the support zone, it is recommended to monitor pivot signals to search for entry points to a long position.

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Explanations: In a simplified wave analysis (UVA), the waves are composed of 3 parts (A-B-C). The last unfinished wave is analyzed, while the solid background of the arrows shows the formed structure, dotted - the expected movement.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the length of time the instrument moves in time!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis for the week from October 7 to October 12 for the GBP / USD currency pair

Last week, the pair moved in the side channel. Moving down, the pair almost reached a strong pullback level of 61.8% - 1.2196 (blue dotted line), but there weren't enough bears for more, and the pair spent the rest of the week in the side channel. Most likely, an upward movement is possible this week.

Trend analysis.

This week, the price will move up with the first target 1.2412 - the upper fractal. In case of reaching this level, the continuation of the upward work.

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Fig. 1 (weekly schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - down;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - down;

- monthly chart - up.

The conclusion of a comprehensive analysis is an upward movement.

The overall result of calculating the candle of the GBP / USD currency pair according to the weekly chart: the price of the week is likely to have an upward trend with the presence of the first lower shadow of the weekly white candlestick (Monday - down) and the absence of the second upper shadow (Friday - up).

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Technical analysis for the week from October 7 to October 12 for the EUR / USD currency pair

Trend analysis.

This week, the price, moving down, will attempt testing the target level of 161.8% - 1.0919 (yellow dashed line) once again. Although breaking down is unlikely, the market from this level will try to start moving up into a pullback, with the first target 1.0978 - a pullback level of 14.6% (blue dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (weekly schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - neutral;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger Lines - down;

- monthly chart - up.

The conclusion of a comprehensive analysis is a downward movement.

The overall result of calculating the candle of the EUR / USD currency pair according to the weekly chart: the price of the week is likely to have a downward trend with the absence of the first upper shadow of the weekly black candlestick (Monday - down) and the presence of the second lower shadow (Friday - up).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fractal analysis of Ethereum on October 7

Dear colleagues.

Ethereum is the most optimal instrument for intraday trading, both for working in a trend and in correction zones. The tool has a pronounced structure of the initial conditions and moderate noise of the time series. At the moment, we expect the formation of local initial conditions for the continuation of the upward trend, which should happen after the breakdown of the level of 178.09. The potential target for the top is 186.28.

Forecast for October 7:

Analytical review of cryptocurrency on a scale of H1:

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For the Ethereum instrument, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 202.53, 195.98, 186.28, 178.09, 168.27, 163.87, 160.78 and 153.76. Here, the price has entered an equilibrium state: a downward structure from October 1, and we also expect the formation of a local structure for the top from October 6. We expect the continuation of the upward movement after the breakdown of the level of 178.10. In this case, the target is 186.28. The breakdown of which, in turn, should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement to the level of 195.98. The potential value for the top is considered to be the level of 202.53. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a downward rollback.

Short-term downward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 168.27. In this case, the target is 163.87. The range of 163.87 - 160.78 is a key support for the upward structure. Its passage at a price will favor the development of a downward trend. In this case, the potential target is 153.76.

The main trend is the equilibrium situation.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 178.10 Stop Loss: 168.40 Take Profit: 186.20

Buy: 187.00 Stop Loss: 178.00 Take Profit: 196.00

Sell: 168.20 Stop Loss: 178.30 Take Profit: 164.00

Sell : 160.50 Stop Loss: 169.50 Take Profit: 154.00

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fractal analysis of cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and BCH/USD on October 7

Dear colleagues, due to the fairly widespread in cryptocurrencies, the trading strategy for the cycle in them will change depending on the expansion and narrowing of volatility in hourly prices. When there is no possibility of trading in the adjustment zones of the cycle, where the price range is narrow enough, we will proceed from the initial conditions for the development of the main trend and trade from them according to the trend. If the spread is narrow, then trading signals will be indicated taking into account trading in the correction. Most likely, we will almost always trade on the Bitcoin instrument according to the trend from the initial conditions, and on the BCH/USD instrument, we will also capture correction zones as the main trend develops, since the spread allows this to be done. In this analytics, you can always find out information when we trade by trend,

Forecast for October 7:

Analytical review of cryptocurrency on a scale of H1:

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For the Bitcoin instrument, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 8136.00, 8039.00 and 7634.00. Attention! This instrument is characterized by medium-term trend trading. At the moment, the price has canceled the formation of the upward structure from September 30, and we expect the local structure to be formed for the top, which should happen up to the level of 8136.38. After which, we will determine the zone for entering the market. The noise range is 8136.38 - 8039.21, and is a key support for the downward cycle of October 1.

The level of 7634.77 is the key resistance for the downtrend from October 1. However, the dimension of this structure is such that so far we do not define further goals for the downward trend, but expect the development of an upward trend.

The main trend - we expect the formation of local initial conditions for the upward cycle.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: Stop Loss: Take profit: To continue : Stop Loss:

Sell : Stop Loss : Take profit : To continue : Stop Loss :

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For the BCH/USD instrument, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 257.44, 250.28, 240.03, 231.41, 216.12, 209.45 and 202.94. Attention! At the moment, this instrument has the ability to carry out short-term transactions, as well as trade in adjustment zones from the main trend. Also, in the meantime, the price is in an equilibrium state, and we do not observe pronounced initial conditions for any particular direction. The breakdown of the level of 231.41 will lead to the formation of an ascending structure. In this case, the first potential target is 240.03. The breakdown of which, in turn, must be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement to the level of 250.28. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 257.44, and near which price consolidation is expected.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 216.12 - 209.45, hence, there is a high probability of a reversal in upward movement. The breakdown of the level of 209.45 will lead to the formation of a local structure for the subsequent development of a downward trend.

The main trend is the equilibrium situation.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 231.41 Stop Loss: 216.12 Take Profit: 240.00

Buy: 240.05 Stop Loss: 227.30 Take Profit: 250.25

Sell: 216.12 Stop Loss: 227.30 Take Profit: 209.45

Sell: 209.45 Stop Loss: 216.12 Take Profit: 202.95

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com