Silver's discreet charm: the less, the more expensive

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There are fewer and fewer reserves of white metal in the modern world, so in the long term, the market will feel a shortage of it. According to experts, the lack of silver will provoke a rise in prices for it, and the owners of the metal will benefit in a few years.

According to David Smith, an expert on the precious metals market, investors have now a great chance to capitalize on the growth of silver. The analyst calls it the "chance of a lifetime," which occurs every few years. He is confident that the white metal will overcome the $ 30 mark per ounce, ensuring further growth in the mid-term.

Many experts consider the $30 per 1 ounce mark to be an important resistance level towards which the silver is currently aiming. Today, it is trading near $ 27.19 - $ 27.20 per ounce, moving very slowly towards the next highs. There is sometimes a feeling that the price of a precious metal stands still for a long time, but this is a deceptive impression. The increase in the value of silver occurs almost in gradual steps, but an upward trend is present.

Moreover, D. Smith said that if the barrier of $ 30 per ounce is overcome, silver will grow rapidly. If it fixes at this level within a few days, it will be able to continue the upward trend. In the event of such a development of events, the expert is sure that many investors and large funds will begin to increase their positions in the indicated metal.

A key role in the further growth of the price of the "lunar" metal is played by its undervaluation. Some analysts and traders treat silver with a slight disregard, as if they look down on it, considering it only an industrial metal. However, this position is in the hands of investors in the white metal, as it will help to make good money on further price increases. Experts remind that due to the active use in industry, silver is gradually disappearing from the market, and its amount will be minimal in a few years.

An important factor affecting the price of white and yellow metals (silver and gold) is the level of supply and demand. Experts consider high industrial demand to be the vector of the silver price that determines its further direction. In this regard, silver is much lower in price than the gold one, but with a total shortage in the world, it is able to catch up with it.

A significant disadvantage of using silver for industrial purposes is the impossibility of its secondary processing. Unlike gold, it cannot be returned to the secondary market. According to the observations of specialists, it is impossible to extract any components from finished silver products in the event of recycling. Over the past 20 years, 11.5 billion ounces of silver have been used in global industrial production. During this time, about 3.5 billion ounces returned to recycling, that is, the remaining 8 billion ounces (or 70% of the total precious metal) were forever lost to the market.

According to analysts, the market should prepare for a reduction in the global volume of silver. In such a situation, it will noticeably rise in price and, no matter how strange it may sound, it will become worth its weight in gold. Experts believe that the price of white metal may exceed the price of yellow, if the balance of supply and demand in the precious metals market remains the same.

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Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade EUR/USD on September 16? Plan for opening and closing trades on

Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair

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The EUR/USD pair continued to weakly move down on Wednesday night after breaking the upward trend line, as we expected. Last night we recommended novice traders to not close short positions. At the moment, we can state a fact - the MACD indicator turned up, which indicates the pair's intention to start an upward correction or once again return to the upper line of the 1.17-1.19 sideways channel. One way or another, but now it might be better to close sell orders at a small profit. Moreover, there are quite a lot of important events that could affect the pair's movement today. Traders can start working with some of them in the morning. That is, we might face a situation where a sufficiently strong movement could begin, which is a "game of anticipation" based on the results of the Federal Reserve meeting. In general, we recommend that you behave extremely carefully in the foreign exchange market today.

On September 16, novice traders can solely focus on the US retail sales report for the entire day, which will be released in the afternoon. According to analysts forecasts, the indicator will grow by 1% in August. Therefore, surpassing this figure may support the US currency. The next important event will have to wait until evening or even night. Basically, our evening review will come out before the final event of the day. We are talking about the Federal Reserve meeting, summing up its results, the publication of economic forecasts and a cover letter from the US central bank, as well as a press conference by Chairman Jerome Powell. As we mentioned earlier, you should pay more attention to Powell's speech, since the Fed is unlikely to change the parameters of monetary policy. A lot will depend on what Powell says. He can argue that the economy is recovering normally and does not need additional stimulus. Or he may argue that recovery is extremely slow, and additional stimulus is necessary. In the first case, the dollar will receive support from the foreign exchange market; in the second, it will most likely resume its decline. In general, the more pessimistic the Fed chairman is, the more chances that the pair's quotes will return to 1.1900 and, possibly, even overcome this level.

Possible scenarios for September 16:

1) Novice traders are still not recommended to buy the pair at this time, since the price continues to be in the upper area of the sideways channel, where it is more logical to sell the pair than to buy it. Also, the price rebounded off the 1.1903 level, which is the upper line of the side channel, so there is a high probability that the downward movement will continue. Nevertheless, if the 1.19 level is overcome, then it will be possible to consider new longs on the pair and you can count on forming an upward trend while aiming for 1.1924, 1.1947 and 1.2011.

2) Selling still looks more attractive, only because traders have not managed to overcome the 1.1903 level. However, the downward trend is not currently expressed by any technical patterns (trend lines, channels, etc.). We only have a signal to overcome the upward trend line, but at this time an upward correction could begin, as the MACD indicator moved to the upside. Thus, we recommend opening new short positions after completing this correction with the targets at 1.1823 and 1.1800.

On the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.

The MACD indicator (10,20,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).

Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

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Analysis and trading recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on September 16

Trading recommendations for EUR / USD on September 16

Analysis of transactions

Bulls failed to raise the rate of euro from 1.1897, as a result of which price reversed and moved down quite decently from 1.1875. The movement was more than 30 points and gave good profit to short positions in the market.

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A good deal of important statistics are due for release today, among which is data on the foreign trade balance of the euro area. However, the most significant event is the upcoming US Fed meeting, during which the regulator will announce its decision on interest rates. In such a case, it is best not to trade haphazardly, so wait instead for the final decisions before opening any position in the market. To those willing to take risks, you may follow the strategy below:

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  • Set long positions from 1.1864 (green line on the chart), and take profit around the level of 1.1900. Any effect of good indicators in the euro zone will be short-lived due to the Fed meeting.
  • Sell shorts from 1.1838 (red line on the chart) to 1.1797. A decline will take place on the grounds of strong economic forecasts by the Federal Reserve.

Trading recommendations for GBP / USD on September 16

Analysis of transactions

The pound saw quite large movements from 1.2877, which gave long positions decent profit of more than 40 points.

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Latest report on UK inflation is scheduled to come out today, the data of which, if turns out better than the forecasts, will result in a new wave of growth in the pound. But if the indicators disappoint, it is better to take a closer look at short positions, especially before the Fed meeting.

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  • Open long positions from 1.2930 (green line on the chart), and take profit at the level of 1.2996 (thicker green line on the chart). However, GBP/USD will only rise if data on inflation comes out better than forecasts.
  • Set short positions from 1.2876 (red line on the chart) to 1.2775, as it is best to sell the pound and trade along the trend.
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Trading by the levels of the European Central Bank 16/09/2020

Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) conducted operations that allowed the price to stay above the monthly minimum. The growth of the Euro was stopped at the significant resistance zone 1.1916-1.1893. Attempts to buy at these levels were absorbed by limit orders. Today's opening of European trading indicates the starting point for further work. Holding the price above yesterday's low will allow you to buy the instrument. The first target for growth will be the September high of 1.1916.

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For further growth of the EUR/USD pair, it will be necessary to consolidate above the level of 1.1916. If this happens, the strengthening of the Euro-Dollar will be a priority for the whole of September.

The probability of continuing trading in the range that was formed due to the actions of the central bank is quite high so we should expect a reaction after updating the monthly maximum. It is possible to keep the price in the formed range for a long time. The option of weakening the European currency will be considered if today's closing of trading occurs below yesterday's minimum.

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Brief trading recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on 09/16/20

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The EUR/USD pair continues to move within the sideways channel 1.1700/1.1810/1.1910 (lines No. 1, 2 and 3), consistently working out the set levels. During the previous day, the quote stopped regularly within the upper boundary of the channel 1.1900/1.1910, where a slight slowdown occurred and, as a result, the price reversed. The current sequence of movements allows traders to calculate a possible move in the market in advance.

Based on the obtained data on finding the quote, a number of possible scenarios for the market development can be considered:

First, a price rebound from line No. 2.

The quote is approaching the price level of 1.1810, where a stagnation is formed in the particular area, followed by a rebound, similar to what happened in the period of September 11.

Second, a breakdown of line No. 2, with holding the specified descending clock.

The specified downward movement from line No. 3 (1.1910) is held in the market, which leads not just to a decline to the level of 1.1810, but to its breakdown, with a consolidation below 1.1800. In this case, the way may open in the direction of the values 1.1755-1.1700.

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On the other hand, the GBP/USD currency pair is in the correction stage from the support level of 1.2770, where market participants managed to strengthen the value of the pound sterling by more than 150 points. The price movement along the price level of 1.2885 with an amplitude of 1.2825/1.12925 indicates that the downward interest is still felt in the market, otherwise the British currency would have continued to recover losses.

The typical ambiguity in the movement allows traders to work on the tactics of breaking through the established swing boundaries, which may indicate a predominant interest, as well as to the local course of the market, on which it will be likely to earn profit.

Based on the obtained data about finding the quote and successive fluctuations, you can predict the price movement:

- Buying a pair is recommended at a price above 1.2930, with the prospect of moving to 1.3000/1.3025

- Selling a pair is recommended at a price below 1.2810, with the prospect of moving to 1.2770.

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USD/JPY. Change without change: the yen is favorable with the new Japanese Prime Minister

Today is an important day for Japan because the national Parliament will consider the candidacy of a new Prime Minister to replace Shinzo Abe. In different circumstances, this is rather a formal procedure because two days ago the liberal democratic party already elected 71-year-old political veteran Yoshihide Suga as the new leader. This means that he is guaranteed to become the new head of government given the majority of the ruling political force in both parliamentary chambers. On the contrary, the yen reacts strongly to political events as the Japanese currency strengthened both on Monday (following the results of an internal party vote), and is strengthening now, when Sugu's candidacy is approved in Parliament. In my opinion, this situation can be used as a reason to open longs for the USD/JPY pair. Firstly, the fundamental political factors are very short lived and secondly, no serious changes are expected in the context of the ongoing "abenomics" and monetary conditions.

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As a matter of fact, both houses of Parliament will approve Suga as Prime Minister today. From the run up to his appointment, members of the Cabinet announced that they were resigning. This is not a political game but a well established rule that the new Prime Minister must come from the composition of the government independently. However, many of the Cabinet members will remain in their posts. In particular, according to the Japanese press, Finance Minister Taro ASO and foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi, as well as some other members of the government who worked under Abe, will retain their posts under Sugu's rule.

As we can remember, when Shinzo Abe announced his resignation for health reasons, the yen showed increased volatility. At first, the Japanese currency impulsively weakened and then it began to grow impulsively. But the downward trend did not last long because the USD/JPY pair reached the base of the 105th figure and just the next day began to regain lost positions. We can assume that this time the situation is similar. But in this case, the yen can still test the 104th price level.

Nevertheless, there are no sufficient grounds for the development of a long-term downward trend movement. The policy of Shinzo Abe which supports the growth of the stock market and keeps the national currency from excessive growth will most likely continue. This was stated by the representatives of the ruling party immediately after Abe's resignation. A while later, when the favorite of the internal party primaries was determined, it became obvious that radical changes in key policy areas are not really expected. Suga previously worked as the Secretary of the Cabinet of Ministers. He was and is a close associate and according to Japanese media, a follower of Shinzo Abe.

Some experts call Suga a "transitional Prime Minister", as the news of Abe's resignation caught many by surprise and the candidacy of his successor became a kind of compromise for the most influential representatives of the party. One way or another, most analysts agree that no revolutionary changes should be expected from the 71-year-old politician. This includes the economy especially since Finance Minister Taro ASO will remain in his position in the new government. It is also worth remembering that the term of office of the head of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda will expire only in April 2023. Therefore, the Japanese regulator will unlikely change its approach to monetary policy – at least in the context of the coming months.

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All this suggests that the trend movement going down of the USD/JPY pair is temporary. At this moment, it is better to wait and see the position for the pair in times of such tectonic shifts in politics because it is risky to make any trading decisions (both longs and shorts). But if we look at the longer-term prospects, the strengthening of the yen will be short-term as I can see. The main support level is 104.70, which is the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the weekly chart. In other words, the USD/JPY bears still have a downward trend but we can consider longs with the main goal of 106.00 (the lower limit of the Kumo cloud on the daily chart) when approaching this support level. In General, it is advisable to make trading decisions on the pair (as well as on any other dollar pair) after the September fed meeting which will be announced this evening. The Japanese political factor will not work for long because tomorrow the pair will follow the US currency which will respond to the tone and general mood of the Federal reserve.

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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for September 16, 2020

Technical Market Outlook:

Another Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern on H4 time frame has made the market to reverse at the level of 1.1899 and hit the level of 61% Fibonacci retracement located at 1.1822 again. The bulls were unable to break through the retracement located at the level of 1.1912 and the rally was reversed. The bulls are still trying to resume the rally, but the level of 1.1912 has not been violated yet. Any intraday breakout below the level of 1.1813 will accelerate the sell-off towards the level of 1.1753 again, so it is worth to keep an eye on the next developments. The weekly trend remains up,

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2085

WR2 - 1.1993

WR1 - 1.1923

Weekly Pivot - 1.1829

WS1 - 1.1753

WS2 - 1.1670

WS3 - 1.1589

Trading Recommendations:

On the EUR/USD pair the main trend is up, which can be confirmed by almost 10 weekly up candles on the weekly time frame chart and 4 monthly up candles on the monthly time frame chart. Nevertheless, weekly chart is recently showing some weakness in form of a several Pin Bar candlestick patterns at the recent top. This means any corrections should be used to buy the dips until the key technical support is broken. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1445. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2555.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for September 16, 2020

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GBP/JPY is building a base for the next impulsive rally higher. We continue to look for a break above minor resistance at 136.60 that confirms red wave iv/ has completed and red wave v/ has taken over for an impulsive rally to and above the former 142.72 peak.

Short-term support at 135.50 should be able to protect the downside for the expected break above minor resistance at 136.60.

R3: 137.10

R2: 136.60

R1: 136.06

Pivot: 135.90

S1: 135.75

S2: 135.50

S3: 135.25

Trading recommendation:

We are long GBP from 135.55 with our stop placed at 135.00

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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for September 16, 2020

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD pair has hit the short-term trend line resistance located at the level of 1.2900. This is the key level and the key resistance due to the fact, that any violation of this line will put bulls in control of the market and another wave up will develop. For now, the immediate technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2979 - 1.3017 and it should stop any bullish attempts. The intraday technical support is seen at the levels of 1.2869, 1.2848 and 1.2816.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3535

WR2 - 1.3399

WR1 - 1.3036

Weekly Pivot - 1.2895

WS1 - 1.2525

WS2 - 1.2380

WS3 - 1.1994

Trading Recommendations:

On the GBP/USD pair the main, multi-year trend is down, which can be confirmed by the down candles on the monthly time frame chart. The key long-term technical resistance is still seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518 is the reversal level) or accelerate towards the key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1903 (1.2589 is the key technical support for this scenario).

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for September 16, 2020

Crypto Industry News:

According to Chainalysis, bitcoins are sent to exchanges, but they don't find a place in their order books. This would mean that market participants send their cryptocurrency to exchanges to sell it, but are not yet blocking it on orders. Instead, they wait for the price to rise.

Trading intensity analyzes two variants of stock market data. It is about the number of BTC in the order books of the exchange in relation to the number of coins sent to the exchanges. A high value for trade intensity would mean that many BTC orders are placed on exchanges for a small amount of bitcoins sent to exchanges, while a low value for trade intensity would indicate otherwise. At the time of writing this publication, the median BTC trading intensity was 2.13. This is the lowest level in a year.

Chainalysis data also suggests that the BTC value sent to exchanges is quite high at the moment. According to Chainalysis data, there has been a change of 26.36 BTC in bitcoin held on exchanges, which is not only positive but above the 180-day average. Hence, from the point of view of trading intensity, this makes the number of BTC in exchange order books low or relatively lower than the increase in the number of bitcoins stored on exchanges.

Looking at it in the context of a price scenario can reveal where market participants expect the next price increase. Since a large number of bitcoins are traded on exchanges but have not yet been sold or placed to place an order, the breeder and trader expect the price to rise. When the price rises as there are more inflows to the exchanges than the payouts, a selling frenzy would ensue.

Market Participants therefore seem to be waiting for prices to rise to their preferred level in order to start their sell orders and cash in their profits. However, this may prove to be a problem when prices rise significantly.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has made a new local high at the level of $10,883 recently, but it does not look like the bulls want to continue the rally as the momentum had decreased significantly. If there is no breakout higher in the coming days, then the market might be moving sideways for some time and event reverse again. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of $10,890 and $10,940 and the key short-term technical support is seen at the level of $9,922. The weekly time frame trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $11,302

WR2 - $10,908

WR1 - $10,609

Weekly Pivot - $10,206

WS1 - $9,887

WS2 - $9,466

WS3 - $9,157

Trading Recommendations:

The weekly trend on the BTC/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. All the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $13,712. The key mid-term technical support is seen at the level of $10,000.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 16, 2020

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EUR/JPY has seen a deep correction in wave ii. Ideally, this wave ii correction has completed with the test of 124.58 which was a bit below the low of our ideal target-area between 125.18 and 124.80. A break above minor resistance at 125.08 will confirm the completion of wave ii and the onset of wave iii that ultimately should break above the peak of a wave i at 126.43 for a continuation higher towards 129.24 and above.

The fact that wave ii has moved close to the starting point of a wave i at 124.38 offers a low-risk buying opportunity as the stop can be placed just below 124.38, while the possible return could be many times larger.

R3: 125.60

R2: 125.21

R1: 125.08

Pivot: 124.80

S1: 124.58

S2: 124.38 - Key support, must not be broken under this bullish count

S3: 124.28

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 124.41 with our stop placed at 124.35

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Trading plan for EUR/USD on September 16

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COVID-19 update: It seems that the pandemic has now receded in United States and Brazil, having recorded an infection rate below 40 thousand a day.

Unfortunately, the same can not be said in India, as its situation regarding the virus remains grave, reporting an incidence rate at a peak of more than 90 thousand new cases a day. As soon as it declines though, the overall (global) statistics will decrease as well.

Meanwhile, in the West and Southern Europe, another surge has risen, so Israel has resorted to introducing another quarantine for about two weeks. Will this cause another negative effect on the EU economy? Perhaps not, as long as there is no complete closure in the economy, and the governments implement strict mask regime and social distancing measures.

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EUR / USD - price consolidated ahead of the important Fed meeting.

Today, the Federal Reserve will announce its decision regarding interest rates, as well as report latest forecasts for the US economy.

Open long positions from 1.1920; or

Open short positions from 1.1750.

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for September 16, 2020

Crypto Industry News:

The Swiss arm of Russia's largest bank is researching the blockchain-based trade finance process.

Sberbank Switzerland AG, a subsidiary of Russia's largest bank, Sberbank, has just signed an agreement with the Swiss trade finance platform Komgo. The cooperation between the two entities is to involve the use of a trade financing service based on blockchain technology.

Sberbank Switzerland AG told the media that the collaboration with Komgo was about "the increasing digitization of trade finance".

Evgeny Kravchenko, head of trade finance at Sberbank, emphasized that trade finance is a strategic activity of Sberbank Switzerland AG. According to the director, Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States are the company's key markets. He added that Sberbank Switzerland AG also handles trade flows worldwide.

"In recent years, the digitization of trade finance has accelerated rapidly, in line with the needs of market players" - said Kravchenko, adding that trade financing by Komgo will further increase the effectiveness of Sberbank's operations.

It is worth recalling that Komgo is an innovative startup dealing with trade finance, which is developing a platform for financing trade in goods based on the Ethereum blockchain. One of its goals is to accelerate trade finance transactions as well as allowing interested parties to track the transaction.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair has been testing the lower channel line around the level of $355.24 after the price had made a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern at the level of $389.91 and reversed lower. Currently, the market is consolidating in a narrow zone between the levels of $355.24 - $369.37 and due to the fact, that the last move inside the channel is corrective in nature, more weakness is expected in ETH/USD pair. The next technical support is seen at the level of $332.28 (outside of the channel). The key demand zone is seen between the levels of $305.20 - $321.95 and if violated, then the next key long term support is seen at the level of $288.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $460.14

WR2 - $422.13

WR1 - $395.03

Weekly Pivot - $357.60

WS1 - $326.67

WS2 - $291.16

WS3 - $261.17

Trading Recommendations:

The weekly and monthly time frame trend on the ETH/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. The key mid-term technical support, seen at the level of $364.95 had been violated, but all the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $500.

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USD/MXN Price Movement On Sept 16, 2020.

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On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the USD/MXN is trading wit the bearish bias. It may decline to the first target at the 20.955 level and the Imbalance Area's (grey area) 20.559 - 20.105 levels as its second target. It is moving below the Moving Average. This scenario will come true if the pair does not rise and fix above the 20.161 level.

(Disclaimer)

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Crude Oil Price Movement On Sept 16, 2020.

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On the 4 hour chart, Crude Oil is rising to the 39.44 level as its prime target and the 40.72 level as its second target. Both of these targets are already in Low Resistance Liquidity Run (light blue rectangle) area. Bulls may take the upper hand, especially after entering the High Resistance Liquidity Run Area (Maroon Rectangle). The price may retrace to the 38.01 level before resuming its upward movement. This scenario will come true if the price does not decline and close bellow the 37.06 level.

(Disclaimer)

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Forecast for EUR/USD on September 16, 2020

EUR/USD

Yesterday, the euro began to decline in anticipation of the results of today's Federal Reserve meeting on monetary policy. The business press is dominated by the mood about the softness of today's meeting, this is likely, but the content of this "softness" is not taken into account, let's say the meeting will be with "soft power". The heart of the matter is the Fed's forecasts for the economy and inflation, and they can be optimistic, which could shift Chairman Jerome Powell's reservations in the hawkish direction. Sales on the secondary housing market for August will be released on Tuesday next week (September 22), forecast 5.95 million y/y against 5.86 million y/y in July. New home sales (September 24th) are expected to rise 1.3%, while durable goods orders are forecast to rise 1.5%. There are no forecasts for inflation yet, but they simply cannot fail to increase, since the economy, especially individuals, experienced an almost surplus of cash in summer.

So we are looking forward to a more hawkish speech from Powell than the average business press expects.

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The daily chart shows that the price is already close to the support of the MACD indicator line. Settling below it (1.1805) will cause the price to fall to the first target of 1.1650. Overcoming the level opens the second target of 1.1550. It is also noteworthy that the signal line of the Marlin oscillator does not go beyond its own descending trend line.

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The price settled below the MACD line, while the Marlin oscillator entered the downward trend zone on the four-hour chart. We look forward to the euro's decline.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on September 16, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar attacked the resistance of the MACD line on the daily chart on Tuesday. The attempt failed, but the aussie ended the day gaining 13 points. If another attempt to break through the area above 0.7333 is made today, and it turns out to be more successful, the price will continue to rise to the upper border of the price channel at 0.7395.

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The main scenario is still going down. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator has entered the growth zone, but is experiencing obvious difficulties with increasing further. In the current situation, it reacts with a big change of falling. It is enough for the price to fall by 20 points for the signal line of the oscillator to be in the negative zone again. Setting the price below the first bearish target at 0.7249 (September 10 low) opens the target of 0.7110 (August 12 low).

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The price is moving along the MACD line, while the Marlin oscillator is neutral on the four-hour chart. Both indicators are not informative in the current situation. Only two levels are significant: 0.7333 and 0.7249, the price breakout of which will become decisive in the short term.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on September 16, 2020

USD/JPY

USD/JPY lost another 28 points on Tuesday since it decisively began to fall by 42 points on Monday, approaching the important 105.18 level, breaking through which opens the way to the 103.75 target - the May 2013 high. But such a breakout of support has not happened yet, even though the Marlin oscillator is already in the negative zone, which, however, increases the likelihood of such an event. A price reversal is possible from the point where two trend lines intersect and the price can then grow further towards the embedded line of the price channel in the 106.50 area.

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The situation is completely downward on the four-hour chart, while the Marlin oscillator shows no signs of a reversal. This circumstance slightly increases the probability of a price breakout.

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Hot forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD on September 16. COT report. Buyers of the pound taking a rest. Chances of falling

GBP/USD

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The GBP/USD pair continued to correct after a 700-point fall on September 15, and by the end of the day, it completed the Kijun-sen critical line for the second time in recent days. Thus, sellers received the opportunity to sell the currency pair again, since, firstly, the correction took place (albeit very weak), and secondly, the price rebounded off the Kijun-sen line again. Although the correction is extremely small, nevertheless, the current fundamental background from the UK does not indicate a stronger growth for the British currency. The downward channel remains relevant as the price remains within it. The price can also rebound off its upper line. The bulls continue to rest at this time and wait for the price to settle above the downward channel.

GBP/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels are directed upward on the 15-minute timeframe, but we expect it to move down in the near future. The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report for the British pound was completely unexpected. Despite the fact that the pound only fell and lost 700 points during September 2-8, non-commercial traders (the most important group of traders) closed Sell-contracts (shorts) during this period. It has decreased by 8,000. Buy-contracts (longs) were also closed, but in smaller quantities, down by only 3,500. Thus, according to the logic of things, the pound was supposed to rise in price during this period, since the net position in the "non-commercial" category increased. One might think that other categories of traders have had a greater impact on the pound. However, this is not the case either, since commercial traders opened 14,000 Buy-contracts and 9,000 Sell-contracts in the same period of time. That is, the net position has grown for this category, in other words, traders have become more bullish. Therefore, we have witnessed a paradoxical situation when the report absolutely does not correspond to what is happening on the market. Therefore, the next report may show even more serious changes.

The fundamental background for the pound/dollar pair did not change on Tuesday. The British Parliament passed a decision on the "Johnson Bill", but this did not provoke new sell positions on the pound. Quite important reports were also published in the UK during the day. The unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, as predicted, the number of new applications for unemployment benefits in August reached 73,000, which is slightly lower than forecasts, and the average wage fell by 1% in July, which is also better than analysts' expectations. Thus, the entire package of data can even be regarded as positive. The British currency did not receive much support due to the fact that the unemployment rate rose, and wages fell. Today, traders will focus on the results of the Federal Reserve meeting and Chairman Jerome Powell's speech. However, in addition to this, the UK will publish the consumer price index for August, which may slow down (!!!) to 0% (!!!). If this forecast turns out to be true, then the pair may fall again, as this is a very weak value of inflation.

We have two trading ideas for September 16:

1) Buyers remain outside the market, therefore, it is not recommended to consider new buy positions on the British currency now. It will be possible to open long positions on the basis of the price settling above the downward channel and the Kijun-sen line (1.2896) with the targets on the resistance area of 1.3004-1.3024 and the resistance level of 1.3121. Take Profit in this case will be from 90 to 200 points.

2) Sellers stay in the game and short positions remain relevant. Since the price has not yet managed to gain a foothold above the critical line, it is now recommended to sell the pair again while aiming for the support area of 1.2634 - 1.2660, which is the nearest. Take Profit in this case can be around 180 points. For safety, we recommend placing a Stop Loss order. The pair may resume falling today once the inflation report in Britain has been released, however, there may be a strong unpredictable movement during the day, as the results of the Fed meeting will be published in the evening.

Explanations for illustrations:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on September 16. COT report. Will Powell help the US dollar?

EUR/USD 1H

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The euro/dollar pair once again rose to the upper border of the sideways channel of 1.17-1.19 on the hourly timeframe on September 15, and at the same time, it also climbed to the Senkou Span B line and the resistance area of 1.1886-1.1910. The pair's quotes rebounded from all three resistances, which showed and proved that buyers do not yet see reasons and grounds for further longs of the euro. Thus, at the moment, everything looks as if the downward movement will resume within the area of the lower line of the side channel. The support level of 1.1760 will be the intermediate target. We believe that it is possible to expect the upward movement to continue, but first the 1.1886-1.1910 area must be overcome. But even in this case, the upward movement might not be strong.

EUR/USD 15M

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The lower linear regression channel began to move down on the 15-minute timeframe, as the price failed to overcome the 1.1900 level again. The latest Commitment of Reports (COT) report, which, I recall, comes out with a three-day delay and only covers the dates of September 2-8, turned out to be absolutely predictable. We expected that it wouldn't show any fundamental changes in the mood of large traders, because the EUR/USD pair continues to trade in a side channel. At the end of the reporting week, the category of non-commercial traders closed 3,073 Buy-contracts (longs) and opened 789 Sell-contracts (shorts). The changes are minimal considering that the total number of contracts for this category exceeds 300,000. We can only note that the net position for players in this category has slightly decreased, which means a weakening of the bullish sentiment, but again minimal. The commercial trader category was much more active and closed as many as 30,000 contracts during the reporting week. However, we remind you that the actions of non-commercial traders are the most important, since they are considered to be the ones driving the market, and commercial traders usually open positions opposite to them. The last three trading days of last week were not included in the latest COT report, however, no serious price changes were recorded on those days.

The United States released a report on industrial production for July on Tuesday, September 15, which did not particularly impress traders and there was no reaction to it. But a relatively important report on retail sales will be published today, and we can expect the results of the two-day Federal Reserve meeting late in the evening. As we mentioned, the Fed is unlikely to change any parameters of monetary policy, so the main focus is on Chairman Jerome Powell's speech and the accompanying Fed statement. Potentially, these events are of great importance, but if Powell does not report anything interesting, then it is unlikely for traders to have significant reactions. The meeting may well turn out to be a "walk-through". At the same time, traders may start to play ahead of the curve today, which means that active trading will begin much earlier than upon receiving information from the Fed. Therefore, in any case, you need to trade quite carefully today.

We have two trading ideas for September 16:

1) Bulls, in their desire to resume the upward trend, stayed on the upper line of the side channel, as well as several resistances that prevented them from continuing to grow. Therefore, we recommend to consider new long positions only if the 1.1884-1.1910 area has been overcome, and then you can aim for the resistance level of 1.2003. Take Profit in this case will be about 60 points.

2) Bears received a new opportunity to pull down the euro/dollar pair to the lower area of the side channel of 1.17-1.19, since the 1.1884-1.1910 area was not overcome, but a rebound was made from the Senkou Span B line. Thus, we recommend you to wait until one settles below the Kijun-sen line (1.1848) and then you can start trading down while aiming for the support level of 1.1760. Potential Take Profit in this case is about 70 points.

Explanations for illustrations:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Comprehensive analysis of movement options for Gold & Silver (H4) on September 16, 2020

Minute operational scale (H4)

The middle of the first month of autumn - the calm before the storm? Overview of the movement options for Gold & Silver on September 16, 2020.

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Spot Gold

Spot Gold movement will continue from September 16, 2020, depending on the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (1942.00 - 1952.50 - 1962.50) of the Minuette operational scale forks - the movement markings inside the 1/2ML Minuette channel are shown on an animated chart.

The continuation of the downward movement of Spot Gold will be possible in the event of a breakdown of the lower border of the channel 1/2 Median Line Minuette - support level of 1942.00 - and this movement will be directed to the goals:

  • LTL control line (1910.00) of the Minuette operational scale forks;
  • minimum (1906.22-1902.35).

The upward movement of Spot Gold can take place when the resistance level of 1962.50 is jointly broken at the upper border of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel and the LTL control line (1966.50) of the Minute operational scale forks and will be directed to the warning line LWL38.2 Minute (1983.00) and the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (1995.00 - 2010.00 - 2026.00) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

Details of the Spot Gold movement from September 16, 2020 can be seen on the animated chart.

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Spot Silver

The development of the Spot Silver movement from September 9, 2020 will also be determined by the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (26.850 - 27.220 - 27.560) of the Minuette operational scale forks - details of movement within this channel is shown on the animated chart.

When breaking the lower border of the channel 1/2 Median Line Minuette - support level of 26.850 - the downward movement of Spot Silver may continue to initial line SSL (26.500) of the Minuette operational scale fork and the channel borders 1/2 Median Line (25.900 - 25.150 - 24.400) of the Minute operational scale fork.

The breakdown of the upper border of the channel 1/2 Median Line Minuette - resistance 27.560 - the movement of Spot Silver will continue to borders of the equilibrium zone (27.950 - 28.500 - 28.880) of the Minuette operational scale fork with the prospect of updating the local maximum 29.805 reaching the final line SSL Minuette (30.400).

Details of the Spot Silver movement options from September 16, 2020 are shown on an animated chart.

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The review is compiled without taking into account the news background, the opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers, and is not a guide to action (placing "sell" or "buy" orders).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. September 16. The UK signs the first free trade agreement. The UK Parliament approved the "Johnson

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - downward.

CCI: 5.7488

The British pound continued to adjust during the second trading day against the US currency. Despite the fact that the European currency began to fall against the dollar in the afternoon on Tuesday, the pound sterling continued to adjust. Thus, there is no correlation between the main two currency pairs and the pound continues to have a downward trend and it still depends entirely on the fundamental background from the UK. We cannot say at this time that traders refused to continue selling the British pound, but at the same time, sales stopped, and purchases of the British currency did not begin. Although the situation with the new bill of Boris Johnson has almost completely cleared up. The situation with Brexit and the future trade agreement between the UK and the European Union is clear as day. Thus, we can assume that at this time the markets have calmed down a little, and trading may return to its usual course.

Meanwhile, for the first time in a long time, positive news appeared in the UK. Just recently, it became known that negotiations on a free trade agreement with Japan ended successfully and the countries signed a deal for 15.2 billion pounds. In a statement, Britain's Foreign Trade Ministry said the agreement was the first major one as an independent country. The UK government expects that this agreement will create new jobs, and British companies that export to Japan will gain a competitive advantage over companies from other countries. The Ministry of Foreign Trade expects that the agreement will bring about 2 billion pounds to the Kingdom's economy.

However, unfortunately for the British pound, this news did not provide it with strong support. Perhaps simply because an additional 2 billion pounds for the British economy is now very small. Recall that the British economy is losing $ 70 billion annually, starting in 2016, just because of the fact of Brexit. The UK's total GDP is $ 2.855 trillion. Therefore, an additional 2 billion is certainly nice, but it does not play a special role in the economy, which lost 20% only in the second quarter of 2020.

However, negative news from the Foggy Albion continues to arrive. Last night, the UK Parliament approved the "Johnson bill" in the second reading. It is reported that the document will now be sent for revision, however, it has already been approved. As we assumed in previous articles, the conservative votes were enough to pass the controversial bill on their own. However, some other details became known. For example, the fact that Boris Johnson fears that the European Union will go to the literal implementation of the protocol on Northern Ireland and may arrange a "food blockade". It is expected that the UK government will not violate the agreement with the European Union on Brexit if there is no threat to the integrity of the UK and the normal functioning of the British market. In other words, the new law is a kind of safety net, at least according to Boris Johnson. Also, many experts believe that by passing this law, Johnson creates additional pressure on Brussels, wanting to force it to be more accommodating in the negotiations on a free trade agreement. However, we personally believe that this is a "child's bluff and provocation". It is unlikely that such a huge and strong organization as the European Union will follow the lead of 10 Downing Street and does not understand the true intentions of the British Prime Minister.

But the European Union may well file a lawsuit against the actions of the British government if Boris Johnson really violates any of the points on the Brexit agreement. Thus, the Alliance and the Kingdom are now on the verge of a very serious conflict. The whole situation looks like this: The EU and Britain do not agree on free trade, then London is highly likely to violate the agreement on Northern Ireland. This will further reduce the likelihood of a free trade deal between the Bloc and the Kingdom in the future, and also significantly increase the likelihood of a conflict that could end in a trade war or the introduction of a bunch of sanctions and duties on both sides. Thus, given that the seventh and eighth rounds of negotiations between the David Frost and Michel Barnier groups failed as well as the previous six, it is likely that London and Brussels will now follow in the footsteps of the United States and China. By the way, the United States has already warned London that the future free trade agreement between them may also be at risk of failure if London violates the agreement with the EU. However, this warning was made by representatives of the US Democratic Party and with the caveat that Joe Biden will win the election on November 3. Nevertheless, it is Biden who is now leading in American sympathies, so the probability that he will become the next president is still very high.

Thus, for the British pound at this time, there is such a situation that the negative frankly outweighs the total positive. Moreover, until September 1, the growth of the pound for several months is not particularly logical and justified. Yes, in America in 2020, there are all sorts of crises, and the economy has fallen by record values in the last 100 years. But we have repeatedly reminded traders that the situation in the UK is not much better. And thanks to the efforts of Boris Johnson, to whom the British themselves have given all power in their hands, things can get much worse. Both economically, politically, and geopolitically. We can only watch the situation unfold. From a technical point of view, the British currency may continue to fall, since the lower linear regression channel is already directed down, and the moving average is also directed down.

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The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair is currently 150 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "high". On Wednesday, September 16, therefore, we expect movement inside the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2742 and 1.3042. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards signals the end of the round of upward correction within the downward trend.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2817

S2 – 1.2695

S3 – 1.2573

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2939

R2 – 1.3062

R3 – 1.3184

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair has started a correction on the 4-hour timeframe, which may be very weak. Thus, today it is recommended to open short positions with targets of 1.2817 and 1.2742 as soon as the Heiken Ashi indicator turns downward. It is recommended to trade the pair for an increase with targets of 1.3062 and 1.3184 if the price returns to the area above the moving average line.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. September 16. Jerome Powell may again disappoint market participants and create pressure on

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 25.0417

The euro/dollar pair again spent the second trading day of the week in fairly calm trading with a slight upward bias. Thus, the pair's quotes again approached the upper line of the side channel of 1.17-1.19, which we have been writing about for several weeks in a row. The upper border of this channel is quite blurry. The pair was at least twice as high as it was, which means it was ready to resume the formation of an upward trend. However, both times I returned to this channel. Thus, this time it can again overcome the level of 1.1900, however, this does not mean that the upward movement will continue. So far, the local maximum remains the level of 1.2011, and in recent weeks, the bulls do not find grounds for new purchases of the European currency. However, the problem is that traders do not find any reason to buy the US currency either. For more than a month and a half spent in the flat, sellers were not able to correct the pair by more than 200 points.

At the beginning of the new trading week, the fundamental background for the euro/dollar pair did not change in any way, and all the key topics remained the same. For example, the topics of the presidential election, which is only a month and a half away. Donald Trump recently said that "Joe Biden's mental abilities are clearly not enough and he simply will not be able to stand up to other world leaders - Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping." "I'm sorry, but we need very smart people, and Joe is not suitable for this post," said Donald Trump. Of course, it would be strange if Trump said that Biden is an excellent candidate for the US presidency. The US leader also recalled the "coronavirus" and the main culprit of the epidemic - China: "I want to tell you that China is now a real problem because of what they did to us. We will never forget it. We made a great deal, but before the ink was dry on the contract, the disease came from China." Thus, the US President only indirectly confirmed once again that the trade standoff with China will continue and there may even be a full-fledged "cold war". Meanwhile, the latest results of sociological research have shown that the gap between Biden and Trump has been reduced to just 5%. It is difficult to say how accurate these studies are. In the same way as to understand why Biden's popularity began to decline, and Trump's - to grow. Over the past few weeks, the current US President did not have time to distinguish himself, so what is the reason for the growth of his popularity? We believe that in general, the political ratings of both candidates remain the same or changes are minimal.

Meanwhile, the problems in the American economy remain great. First, there is complete uncertainty with the government for the next four years. And since it is not clear who will be at the helm of the country, the US economy is not popular with investors right now. Moreover, many investors fear that the election will be won again by Donald Trump, which may be fraught with consequences. For example, during the second presidential term, Trump may start hunting for companies that have production outside the United States and especially in China. Duties may be imposed on the products of such companies, and taxes may be significantly increased for the companies themselves. Also, Democrats and Republicans can not agree on a new package of assistance to the US economy. The latest Republican legislative proposal called for $ 300 billion and failed to pass a vote in the Senate. Thus, the American economy may begin to slow down in its recovery after the "coronavirus crisis".

Today, a very important event will take place in the US that can greatly affect the movement of the euro/dollar pair, as well as the position of the US currency. Summing up the results of the next Fed meeting. Jerome Powell recently said at a symposium in Jackson Hole that the Fed is changing its approach to analyzing inflation. Now the consumer price index will be allowed to go above the 2% mark, and when adjusting monetary policy, the Federal Reserve will rely on the average inflation rate. In other words, periods of low inflation will be offset by periods of high inflation without adjusting monetary policy. In the second quarter, the US economy lost almost 32%. The Fed does not want to lower the rate to the negative zone, especially since negative rates greatly reduce the income of banks and create additional risks for the financial system. Thus, the most interesting thing awaits us at the performance of Jerome Powell. The head of the Federal Reserve will summarize the results of recent months, provide updated information on forecasts for inflation, GDP, and unemployment in the coming years, and also outline his vision for the growth rate of the US economic recovery. Recall that in one of the last articles, we were just wondering which of the economies (European or American) is recovering more quickly? The answer to this question determines how the euro/dollar pair will behave in the coming months. Thus, at least a hint of the answer to this question can be given by the Fed Chairman. Also, Powell can not ignore the topic of "coronavirus", which has recently eased the pressure on the American population, but has not retreated and has not yet been completely suppressed. Moreover, with the arrival of autumn and generally colder seasons, the third "wave" of the epidemic may begin in America. Of course, we hope that this will not happen, however, this is a very real picture of the possible future. Most likely, Powell will again note the high risks that the "coronavirus" creates for the American economy. In general, the more "dovish" Powell's speech is, the more likely it is that the US currency will again begin to depreciate against the euro.

Thus, the pair can trade in a very calm direction until the evening results of the Fed meeting are summed up. However, recently it often happens that market participants are trying to win back all the decisions of the Central Bank and the statements of its head. Thus, the volatility may increase tomorrow morning.

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The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of September 16 is 77 points and is characterized as "average". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1770 and 1.1924. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator back to the top signals a possible resumption of the upward movement in the remaining side channel of $ 1.17 - $ 1.19.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1841

S2 – 1.1719

S3 – 1.1597

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1963

R2 – 1.2085

R3 – 1.2207

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues to trade above the moving average line and retains the chances of growth to the area of 1.1924-1.1963. Thus, the price rebound from the moving average will allow you to open new longs with these goals. It is recommended to consider again options for opening short positions if the pair is fixed below the moving average, with targets of 1.1770-1.1719.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com