Markets, understanding the risks of the COVID-19 pandemic, are still unprepared for serious sales (a decline in the USD/CAD

Investors continue to ignore the positive data coming out of Europe and the US, which point to the emerging bottom after a strong decline in economic activity against the backdrop of a coronavirus pandemic that forced previously economically developed countries to quarantine. The reason for this is an increase in the number of COVID-19 infections in America and the news that New York, as well as several other cities and states, have imposed restrictions on visitors coming from other states in an attempt to limit the spread of the pandemic.

These data are really interesting, indicating, on the whole, the strengthening of the recovery process in the US, Europe and Asia, primarily China. According to the data, core orders for durable goods rose significantly above the forecast in May, reaching 4.0% against April's decline to -8.2% and expectations for growth of 2.5%. The volume of orders for durable goods also increased significantly, jumping by 15.8% against April's decline by 18.1% and the forecast growth of 10.9%. We were pleased with the number of orders for means of production, excluding military and aviation products. The index rose last month by 2.3% against a 6.5% fall in April and expectations of a 1.0% increase.

In addition to these extremely positive data, the values of applications for unemployment benefits last week in the amount of 1,480,000 were presented, which, although they did not reach the forecast of 1,300,000, were slightly better than the previous value of 1,540,000, revised downward. We believe that in this situation the most important is the fact of their decline, which, when the economic activity in the country normalizes, will fall to normal values.

But the markets are still so scared that they do not pay attention to this, preferring to focus on coronavirus topics, which is the root cause of high volatility and the long period of consolidation of the US dollar in the currency market. We believe that such dynamics will continue at least until the beginning of July, until the situation with the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States becomes clear. If they do manage to stop this problem, investors will quickly switch from the coronavirus topic to the fact that the US economy is recovering, which may cause an increase in demand for risky assets, especially company shares, with a noticeable weakening of the dollar.

Today, we should pay attention to the speech of the ECB President C. Lagarde and the publication of important inflation indicators from America - the base price index of personal consumption expenditures, incomes and expenses of Americans, as well as the value of the consumer expectations index and their sentiments from the University of Michigan. Positive values of the indicators will support the demand for shares of American companies and put local pressure on the dollar.

Forecast of the day:

The USD/CAD pair also remains in the range of 1.3500-1.3665. Recovery in oil prices and some improvement in demand for risky assets will help the pair decline to the level of 1.3500.

The NZD/USD pair is also in the range of 0.6395-0.6530. The improving mood of investors in the market, as well as some recovery in demand for commodity assets may support the pair's growth to 0.6530.

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Control Zones for NZDUSD on 06/26/20

Work in the downward direction is a priority because the bearish pattern is not completed. The determining resistance is WCZ 1/2 0.6478-0.6471. If the zone is tested, this will make it possible to enter the sale at the best prices.

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The target weekly shortcut 0.6380-0.6365 makes it possible to obtain a favorable risk-to-profit ratio for sales even from current levels.

To break the downward pattern, closing today's trading above the WCZ 1/2 will be required. This will indicate a shortage of the priority bearish model and allow you to search for purchases at the beginning of next week. A strong upward movement is currently hampered by the monthly CZ in June, the lower border of which is located at 0.6491.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on June 26 (analysis of yesterday's deals). Pound locked in the channel. COT reports.

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Nothing has changed from a technical point of view. A signal was formed yesterday, both for the selling the pound and its purchase in the afternoon. I drew attention to their probability in my reviews. If you look at the 5-minute chart you will see that the resistance was updated at 1.2463 yesterday in the morning, which led to forming a sell signal, while the bulls showed themselves in the support area of 1.2395, forming a false breakout there, which was a good point to open long positions on pound. In order to prevent forming a bearish market today, buyers need to protect support at 1.2395, where forming a false breakout, similar to yesterday, will be a signal to open long positions while expecting a return to resistance 1.2463, where the moving averages are held. It depends on this level whether the bulls will be able to continue the upward correction this week or not. Consolidating above will be a signal to open long positions based on updating the weekly high in the area of 1.2536, where I recommend taking profits. If there is no activity in the support area of 1.2395, it is best to abandon long positions until the low of 1.2334 is updated and buy the pound there for a rebound counting on a correction of 30-40 points within a day. Also, do not forget about the interest of large players. The COT report states that last week short non-commercial positions were reduced from 52,941 to 45,376. At that time, long non-commercial positions sharply rose from 28,893 to 29,379. As a result, the non-commercial net position decreased its negative value to -15,998, against -24,048, which indicates a possible market reversal and building a new bullish momentum in the medium term.

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To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Pound sellers will follow the Bank of England's quarterly newsletter today, which could lead to another pound sale. COnsolidating below support 1.2395 in the morning will be a good signal to open short positions in the hope of continuing a downward trend to the low of 1.2334, the test of which will completely erase the bullish momentum formed earlier this week. A break of 1.2334 will pull down GBP/USD to a low of 1.2290, where I recommend taking profits. Bulls can try to save the situation in the morning, so forming a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.2463, where the moving averages also take place, will be a good signal to open short positions. I recommend selling GBP/USD immediately for a rebound today from a weekly high in the region of 1.2536, counting on a correction of 30-40 points within the day.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is below 30 and 50 moving averages, indicating a further decline in the pound.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

A break of the lower border of the indicator at 1.2395 will increase pressure on the pound. You can count on an upward correction only after a breakout of the upper boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.2440.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - convergence / divergence of moving averages) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of nonprofit traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of nonprofit traders.
  • The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-profit traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Kiwi trying to break 1.3669, June 26, 2020.

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After the breakout from the Pennant Pattern on the 4-hour chart, Kiwi is trying to test the first target level at 1.3669. If the USD/CAD pair sustains its bullish bias, it may rise to the 1.3756 level. This scenario is likely to come true If the pair does not decline and close bellow the 1.3551 level.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: plan for the European session on June 26 (analysis of yesterday's deals). Sellers drove the pair to the week's lows,

To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Yesterday, the report of the European Central Bank and forecasts of economists did not greatly please the market, as well as the fact that the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States stopped declining, indicating the possibility of a backward wave of growth amid the risks associated with the second outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see how the sellers formed an excellent signal to sell the euro at 1.1234 closer to the afternoon, I drew attention to it in my review for the US session, and continued to push the euro. And by the middle of the trading, the bulls managed to form a false breakout at the level of 1.1204, which was a signal to open long positions. As a result, the pair stayed in the side channel of 1.1200-1.1234. As for the current technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, a break and consolidation above resistance 1.1234 is a priority for euro buyers, which will help them save the situation from forming a new bear market. Breakthrough of 1.1234 will provide the bulls with an impulse that can return EUR/USD to a high of 1.1280, where I recommend taking profits. Buyers of the euro should also protect the support of 1.1200, where the lower border of the current rising channel formed at the beginning of this week. Forming a false breakout there will be a signal to open long positions. In the absence of bull activity at this level, it is best to postpone purchases until the weekly low is updated in the region of 1.1170, based on a correction of 20-25 points within the day. It is also necessary to remember the COT reports, which clearly indicate the preservation of the bullish momentum in the market. Any decline in the euro will make the market more suitable for purchases by institutional investors. During the reporting week, a short non-commercial position was reduced from the level of 89,020 to the level of 69,988, while long non-commercial positions sharply rose from the level of 184,669 to the level of 187,120. As a result, the positive non-commercial net position increased again and reached 117,132, against 95,639, which indicates a growing interest in buying risky assets even at current prices high enough for the market.

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To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Euro sellers keep the market under their control and all they need to do in the first half of the day is to achieve a false break out in the resistance area of 1.1234, where the moving averages are also located, it will not be so easy to go outside. In this scenario, you can count on a second return and a support test of 1.1200, consolidating below this level will be an additional signal to sell the euro in the area of the week's low at 1.1170, where I recommend taking profits. The speech of the European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde could be the reason for such sales at the end of the week. If there is no activity on the part of the bears at 1.1234 in the first half of the day, and the bulls regain this range, it is best to postpone selling EUR/USD until the high of 1.1280 is updated, counting on a correction of 25-30 points within the day.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates continued pressure on the euro.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

A break of the lower border of the indicator in the region of 1.1205 will increase pressure on the euro. You can count on upward correction only after a breakout of the upper boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.1234.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - convergence / divergence of moving averages) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of nonprofit traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of nonprofit traders.
  • The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-profit traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/AUD to drop to 1.6240-1.6226, June 26, 2020.

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On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the EMA 34 is now moving through the body of the Bar. It means that EUR/AUD is now trading sideways but the CCI (14) & (CCI 50 ) is already bellow the 0 level. Therefore, the momentum is bearish. This pair may reach the 1.6240-1.6226 levels. This scenario is likely to occur if the pair does not grow and close above the 1.6420 level.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/AUD going down to 1.6240-1.6226: Analysis For June 26, 2020.

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From the technical view at the 4-hour chart of EUR/AUD, we see the 34-EMA is now moving through the body of the Bar. This means that EUR/AUD is now trading sideways, but the CCI (14) & (CCI 50 ) have been already below the 0 level which means that the pair is losing momentum. Based on this fact, EUR/AUD is now trading in a range under the overall bearish pressure. Now this pair is trying to reach the 1.6240-1.6226 area as long as this pair does not retrace upwards and closes above 1.6420.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Control Zones for USDCHF on 06/26/20

Today, the pair is trading in the middle of the medium-term flat range. This makes it impossible to enter positions at competitive prices. Good prices for selling the instrument are at the maximum of the current week, which coincides with the WCZ 1/2 0.9552-0.9536. A test of this zone will be decisive for the downward movement.

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To continue the formation of the downward model, everything is ready, therefore, it is necessary to consider the formation of possible patterns from current levels.

To rebuild the instrument on a bullish momentum, closing of today's trading above WCZ 1/2 is required. This will provide an opportunity to buy an instrument at the beginning of next week. The probability of this reversal is still 25%, which makes this model auxiliary.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Control zones for USD/JPY on 06/26/20

The growth of the previous two days allowed the formation of the "absorption pattern" of the two-day level. This may become the first step for further growth if the price is kept above the Weekly Control Zone 1/4 106.63-106.56. It is important to note that the average weekly control zone was reached yesterday, which caused a halt to further upward impulse.

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Working in the direction of the weakening of the Japanese yen may become the main one next week. This will require the Asian or American session to close above the Weekly Control Zone 1/2 107.90-107.74. This model may be decisive in the first half of July.

The alternative model of continuing the decline has a probability of less than 25%, which makes sales from the current levels not profitable. Thus, the pair is likely to stay above the trading range of the current Wednesday until the end of June.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Control zones for USD/CAD on June 26, 2020

The main direction of the USD / CAD pair is upward, so buy positions are currently the most profitable in the medium term. The nearest resistance is the monthly control zone in June, the lower border of which is located at the highs of last week. This increases the likelihood of a stunt in the coming days.

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The next target area is the WCZ 1/2 1.3783-1.3767, so part of the positions may be left in the hopes of its test.

However, a fall and continued formation of the accumulation zone will occur, if an "absorption" pattern forms today in the daily chart. The closing of weekly trades will be the new starting point for both upward and downward patterns.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The area formed by the important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The area that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on June 26, 2020

EUR/USD

Yesterday, the European Central Bank announced its intention to expand the provision of liquidity outside the eurozone - to the central banks of countries that are not included in the currency bloc. The euro lost 34 points. The euro completed its first bearish target at 1.1195 on the daily chart. The Marlin oscillator has penetrated into the negative zone - into the territory of a declining trend. Now, after overcoming 1.1195, the euro will go to the second goal of 1.1111, to the line of the price channel of a higher scale (monthly).

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The signal line of the Marlin oscillator went below the lower boundary of its own channel on the four-hour chart, while gaining a foothold in the zone of negative values. The price has consolidated under the red balance indicator line, demonstrating the seriousness of the intention to overcome yesterday's low. We are waiting for the euro at the designated target.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on June 26, 2020

GBP/USD

The British pound traded in a small range on the Fibonacci line of 138.2% (1.2424) yesterday. The price is currently located on the red balance indicator line on the daily chart, under which will pave the way to the 1.2235 target at the Fibonacci level of 161.8%. Marlin in the zone of negative values is a downward trend.

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The price is already below the balance line on the H4 chart. Marlin is also in a negative trend. The exact signal for opening a short position is when the price transitions to yesterday's low of 1.2388.

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The price should go above the MACD line and the Fibonacci level of 123.6% (1.2540) to turn the situation upward. But growth in this case can be very significant, more than four figures.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on June 26, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar grew by 18 points on Thursday, but did not go above the target resistance level of 0.6900, which confirmed the daily consolidation below it and the intention to continue moving to the target level of 0.6680 (peak on March 9). In turn, the Marlin oscillator is stuck under the border of the growth territory.

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The price continues to develop under the red balance indicator line on the four-hour chart, Marlin is developing in a downward trend. We are waiting for the aussie to decline further to the target level of 0.6680.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on June 26, 2020

USD/JPY

The yen was caught up in a complex and difficult range to trade, it is indicated by a gray area on the daily chart. US stock indices also formed a two-week horizontal trend and the current situation for the USD/JPY pair looks uncertain from the technical point of view. The price still needs to gain a foothold over the line of the price channel to continue the growth, on which it is now on the daily chart.

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The Marlin oscillator is not in a hurry to leave the declining trend zone, which may eventually turn into a false exit of the price up. The target growth level is 107.77.

To move down the price you need to go below the support of the MACD line at a price of 106.90. In this case, the movement is more predictable - an attempt to work out support at 105.85.

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The support of the MACD line is near the price level of 106.85 on the four-hour chart, which almost coincides with the MACD line on the daily chart. This coincidence enhances the significance of the level and increases the reliability of the downward movement if this level is overcome.

Recommendation: do not trade Japanese yen while it is in the range of uncertainty.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Control zones for AUD/USD on June 26, 2020

The main direction of trading today is downwards, at which more favorable sell positions will be available, after the quotes form a reversal pattern in the charts. Today, the pair tested the WCZ 1/4 0.6897-0.6893, which gives light to sell positions in the market. The target of the bearish move is the weekly control zone 0.6796-0.6778.

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The bearish mood may persist in the market next week as well, which will help keep sell positions and allow additional entries for short positions.

Meanwhile, a resumption of growth is unlikely to happen, so consider it only if today's trading closes above the WCZ 1/4, as it will continue movement within the medium-term accumulation zone formed in June.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The area formed by the important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The area that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Control zones for EUR/USD on 06/26/20

The development in the downward direction becomes the main one at the end of the current week and the beginning of the next. The main goal of the bearish pattern was the weekly control zone 1.1151-1.1133. The probability of reaching this is 75%. We can get favorable selling prices while testing the weekly control zone 1/4 1.1241-1.1236.

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An accumulation zone is formed on the instrument for the third week, which requires taking into account weekly extremes when consolidating daily and medium-term positions.

On the other hand, the alternative growth pattern has 25% probability, therefore, it will only be considered as an auxiliary one. Growth will resume if the closing of today's trading occurs above the opening of Thursday's trading, which will lead to the formation of an absorption pattern of the daily level.

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Daily CZ- daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUDUSD short term pull back towards ascending trendline support!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 0.68926

Reason for Entry: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, graphical swing high

Take Profit: 0.68456

Reason for Take Profit: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, ascending trendline support

Stop Loss: 0.69186

Reason for Stop Loss: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD facing bearish pressure, potential for further drop

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.12367

Reason for Entry: Horizontal overlap resistance and 38.2% fibonacci retracement

Take Profit: 1.11514

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal pullback support, 50% fibonacci retracement, 127.2% fibonacci extension

Stop Loss: 1.12833

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal swing high resistance, 50% fibonacci retracement

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Control zones for GBP/USD on 06/26/20

Working towards weakening the British pound is the main task, because the growth did not disrupt the bearish momentum. Favorable selling prices were received yesterday. Keeping a short position is the main strategy. The first target of the fall is the weekly low. A further decrease will depend on how the pair reacts to the specified extreme.

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It is important to note that closing the current week below the low of the previous one will allow us to form a model in order to continue the decline with a medium-term outlook. This will make it possible to keep sales in the first half of July.

Forming an alternative model will require forming an absorption pattern at the daily level. The probability of this event is below 25%, which makes purchases from current marks not profitable. It is worth noting that the formed accumulation zone provides good sales opportunities even from the middle of the range.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast and trading signals for the GBP/USD pair on June 26. COT report. Sellers were confused about the 1.2403-1.2423

GBP/USD 1H

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If the EUR/USD currency pair continued its downward movement yesterday, then the GBP/USD currency pair stayed in one place almost the entire day - in the support area of 1.2403-1.2423, having failed to overcome it. Thus, a further hike down is delayed until the bears manage to overcome this area. The overall technical picture looks unambiguously in favor of sellers, since the price is below the Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines. However, a few days earlier, the pair's quotes also left the descending channel, which made market participants think about possibly forming an upward trend. The upward trend has not begun, but the general picture of the state of affairs has become confused. Yesterday, even quite strong macroeconomic statistics from overseas could not affect the pound/dollar.

GBP/USD 15M

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The lowest linear regression channel turned sideways on the 15-minute timeframe, which, in principle, is not surprising, given that the whole pair was trading in a narrow price range. So far, there is no talk of an upward correction.

COT report

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The latest COT report, which covers the dates June 10-16, shows that during this time period, professional market players were busy closing sales contracts. That is, the picture for the reporting week was observed exactly the same as for the euro. Demand increased during the indicated period, but not because the pound or the euro became more expensive. On the contrary, demand for the dollar decreased, and traders closed Sell contracts, which led to the growth of European currencies. This is precisely what we told traders to focus their attention on earlier, since there were simply no special reasons to buy the euro and the pound in recent weeks. Nevertheless, both currencies rose. It is also worth noting that, during the reporting week, speculators also closed purchase contracts, hedgers closed both types of contracts, and in general, the pound lost about 32,000 more contracts. Thus, banks, large companies, investment funds and others were engaged in closing all types of transactions during the reporting week, rather than opening contracts. The current week is very controversial. At first, the pound rose in price, then it became cheaper, and yesterday it just stood still. A new COT report could show minimal changes.

The fundamental background for the GBP/USD pair has not changed at all on Thursday, since the UK still does not receive any important information. Macroeconomic statistics from across the ocean have simply been ignored, so traders have no choice but to trade under the conditions that already exist. As we have mentioned more than once, fundamental and macroeconomic backgrounds are not only contradictory, traders simply could not work them out or are openly ignored. Thus, first of all, you need to look at the technique. Buyers continue to expect positive information about the progress of negotiations between London and Brussels, but no one knows when they will receive it. In 2020, the pound is able to stay afloat because of the global pandemic, which has hit all countries of the world in the same way, somewhat levelling them. However, quarantines are over, economies are restarting, and the British economy continues to stall, and it could get stuck even more in the Brexit swamp in 2021 if there is no trade agreement between Brussels and London.

There are two main scenarios as of June 26:

1) The initiative for the pound/dollar pair passed into the hands of buyers, but they do not want to take the opportunity. Therefore, it will be possible to resume downward trading after overcoming the support area of 1.2403-1.2423, which can happen in the next few hours. The target in this case will be the support level of 1.2229. Potential Take Profit in this case will be about 150 points.

2) But now, buyers again need to wait until they consolidate above the Kijun-sen line, which will give them a chance to resume moving upward with targets at the resistance level of 1.2573, resistance area of 1.2719-1.2759. Overcoming each target will allow traders to stay in buy positions. Potential Take Profit in this case will be from 125 to 270 points. At the same time, the Kijun-sen line is very close to the price and overcoming it can be a false signal to buy. Therefore, you are advised to treat long positions with caution.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair on June 26. COT report. Bright future of sellers is below $1.12, where

EUR/USD 1H

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Traders continued to retreat from the resistance area of 1.1328-1.1343 on the hourly timeframe on June 25 and worked out an ascending trend line by the end of the trading day, which continued to support traders to rise. The first attempt to overcome the trend line was unsuccessful, so for now, the bulls retain certain chances for the resumption of the upward trend. However, we believe that sellers have better chances now, therefore, we are waiting for the trend line to be overcome and the euro to fall further. It should also be noted that the pair overcame the important lines of Senkou Span B and Kijun-sen of the Ichimoku indicator on its way to the trend line, which also increases the likelihood of a continued decline.

EUR/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels turned down on the 15-minute timeframe, so the trend is now uniquely downward. There are currently no signs of starting an upward correction.

COT Report

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The euro/dollar pair steadily rose until June 16 (the deadline, data for which is included in the latest COT report) and was only adjusted in recent days. According to the COT report, professional traders were busy during the entire reporting week not with opening purchase contracts, which could be assumed based on the direction the pair was moving, but with closing sale contracts. In just five days, professional traders closed almost 20,000 Sell contracts and opened 1,300 Long Euro contracts at the same time. Thus, strengthening the European currency was absolutely logical at that time. But for the second week in a row, we emphasize that large market players do not buy the euro, and therefore do not believe in the prospects of this currency. The euro grew for two weeks almost at the mere closure of contracts for sale by large speculators, which caused a skew of supply and demand for the euro. The pair went up about 170 points since Monday, after which almost the same went down, so it's hard to say how the mood of professional traders has changed over the current week. Most likely, we will not see major changes in the new COT report.

The general fundamental background for the EUR/USD pair on Thursday has slightly changed. In recent days, the euro/dollar has resumed its downward movement, so the market began to talk that the US dollar will dominate, but we would not make such high-profile conclusions. As we have already figured out in the fundamental articles, it is highly likely that the pair will now be traded in a wide lateral band (400-500 points), since the future of the entire global economy is now so uncertain that it makes no sense to make any forecasts. The same goes for the European and US economies. If we only take economic factors into account, then both economies require additional stimulus packages, but problems arise with the adoption of both. Democrats and Republicans cannot come to an agreement on this issue in America; while, it is not possible to persuade the northern countries to provide free help to the southerners in the European Union. Thus, both economies are in the same position in some way. It would seem that macroeconomic factors influenced the course of trading on Thursday, but, for example, the pound/dollar pair did not react to it in any way, so maybe it has nothing to do with strengthening the US currency. The United States and the European Union will not release important publications on Friday.

Based on the foregoing, we have two trading ideas for June 26:

1) Bears made an attempt to continue moving below the trend line, but it has been unsuccessful so far. Thus, we advise you to wait until we overcome this line and only open new sell orders with the targets of support levels 1.1112 and 1.1047 after that. Potential Take Profit range from 80 to 150 points.

2) On the other hand, buyers folded before the resistance area of 1.1326-1.1341, and now they need to go back to it and try to get a foothold higher again. We recommend that you wait until we overcome this area before buying the EUR/USD pair with the goal of the resistance level of 1.1417. Potential Take Profit in this case is about 70 points.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. June 26. John Bolton's new criticism of Donald Trump. European Parliament President David Sassoli

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - downward.

CCI: -46.2769

The British pound also continued its downward movement during the fourth trading day of the week, but much more modest than the euro currency. However, the most important thing is that the pound/dollar pair is again fixed below the moving average line, therefore, the trend is now again downward. The last bars of the Heiken Ashi indicator is colored blue, so in the very short term, the downward movement is also maintained. However, we also draw the attention of traders to the fact that yesterday's news from overseas was ignored. If in the case of the European currency, the dollar continued to rise in price, then in pair with the pound - no. First, this is called decorrelation, and second, there is reason to assume that the dollar in pair with the euro grew not because of good statistics on orders for durable goods. In general, we stand by our opinion. There are no reasons for the growth of the British currency at this time. However, the market cannot stand still and just wait for these very reasons to appear. Large players who do not set their goal to get exchange rate differences, and do not wait for any specific moments to make major transactions for the sale or purchase of a particular currency. Therefore, the market moves even when there is no news. Thus, our assumption that the pound should continue to fall does not mean that the pair will go to price parity right now. However, the bias in the long term remains downward. We still recommend trading strictly on the trend.

At this time, the verbal confrontation between Donald Trump and his former national security adviser John Bolton continues in the United States. In an interview with CNN, John Bolton said that Trump is not coping with the crisis caused by the "coronavirus" epidemic. "I have no confidence in how President Trump is handling this colossal crisis," Bolton said. Also, the former adviser to the President said that Trump made too big a bet on the trade deal with China and did not want to pay attention to the warnings of advisers about the danger of the "coronavirus" and its possible consequences from the very beginning. "He didn't want to hear bad news about the virus hiding in China or its potential impact on the trade deal he wanted to make. He didn't want to hear about the potential impact of the pandemic on the American economy and its impact on his re-election," Bolton concluded. The former White House resident also said that Trump is more concerned about his re-election and campaigning than running the country and thinking in the national interest.

By the way, according to most experts and political scientists, Donald Trump is doing well only with the economy. On all other issues, his level of support is lower than that of Joe Biden. And this is although Biden continues to remain completely in the shadows. Trump is actively traveling around the country, giving interviews left and right, and does not let you forget about yourself for a second. Joe Biden can not hear any sound. However, sooner or later, "sleepy Joe", as Trump called him, will still have to be included in the election race. His ratings are already high and it even seems that Biden does not need to do anything at all, Trump himself has already done everything for him.

Meanwhile, the entire process of Brexit negotiations between Brussels and London is firmly stuck in a puddle. The parties cannot come to any compromise. Previously, Johnson was regularly criticized by Michel Barnier. Yesterday, the President of the European Parliament, David Sassoli, said that the British Prime Minister did not want to compromise for an agreement during the last EU summit. Mr. Sassoli expressed doubt that Boris Johnson wants to agree at all. "Together we are very concerned because we do not see much enthusiasm from the British authorities and we do not see a strong desire to reach an agreement that satisfies all parties," the President of the European Parliament said. Thus, the time is slowly approaching July - the month until the end of which Boris Johnson "saw no obstacles to the conclusion of an agreement", and London and Brussels are in the same place as they were in March.

Now, in general, there is a situation for the pound/dollar pair, when it is completely unclear what long-term prospects a particular currency has. On the one hand, there are a huge number of problems in the United States, from the "coronavirus" to the political crisis named after Donald Trump. On the other hand, the UK is full of economic problems, as well as a high probability that there will be no deal with the European Union at all, which threatens to cause new financial problems. However, the pair cannot stand still until the balance between currencies is disturbed or new factors appear that can affect the mood of market participants. Therefore, there will still be movements and in the current conditions, we recommend trading following technical analysis.

There are no macroeconomic reports scheduled for the last trading day of the week in the UK. However, during the entire current week, there were no such statistics. Thus, we do not expect strong movements tomorrow. At the same time, traders now do not need fundamental factors to conduct active trading. Therefore, the pair can safely trade actively and without macroeconomic data. So far, the technical picture is in favor of continuing the downward movement. The lower linear regression channel turned down. In the hourly time frame, the price broke above the rising trend line. In the most short-term plan, we can only wait for the overcoming of the support area of 1.2403-1.2423 and the further movement down another 200 points is unlikely to be prevented by anything. In any case, as long as the pair is trading below the moving average, it is the downward mood that persists.

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The average volatility of the pound/dollar pair continues to remain stable and is currently 112 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this indicator is "high". On Friday, June 26, thus, we expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2299 and 1.2523. Turning the Heiken Ashi indicator upward will indicate a new round of corrective movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2390

S2 – 1.2329

S3 – 1.2268

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2451

R2 – 1.2512

R3 – 1.2573

Trading recommendations:

The pound/dollar pair turned down on the 4-hour timeframe and settled below the moving average. Thus, today it is recommended to sell the pound/dollar pair with the goals of 1.2329 and 1.2299 and keep the shorts open until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns up. it is recommended to buy the pound/dollar pair after the reverse consolidation of quotes above the moving average with the first goals of 1.2523 and 1.2573.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. June 26. The US dollar is again dominating, however, the bears' arrogance may be knocked down

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: -42.0018

For the euro/dollar currency pair, the fourth trading day of the week was in a downward movement. Thus, everything would have been perfectly beautiful if the pair had not performed a rather unreasonable growth towards the upper line of the Ichimoku cloud a few days earlier, which confused all the cards, and at the same time made us assume that the bulls were back at work and preparing for a new upward trend. However, as it turned out in practice, the upward movement was again an accident. On Thursday, traders resumed selling the euro and buying the US dollar, which led to a new fall in the euro/dollar currency pair. We believe that in the current circumstances, it is a further drop in quotes that is the most logical and reasonable option. The fact is that we have listed the problems of the United States many times recently. And we remain of our opinion that in the long term, the US dollar has lost its advantage, which means that in the next year or two, the euro is unlikely to fall much in price, provided there are no shocks. Thus, our assumptions about the need for dollar growth are based solely on the unreasonableness of the previous growth of the euro currency. From our point of view, there were no reasons to strengthen the euro. If we leave aside all non-economic topics, the situation in the EU and the US is approximately the same. Yes, it is America that is causing more concern now, because it is across the ocean that the epidemic continues to spread as if there were no quarantine, lockdown, or restrictions. There is no second wave now in the US, the first lingering wave continues. However, this is not critical for the American economy. It has already declined quite significantly, unemployment is high, and the labor market is weak. Therefore, the fact that the "coronavirus" continues to collect more victims does not particularly worsen the state of the US economy. On the contrary, with the lifting of restrictive measures, the economy began to recover, because it was the quarantine that caused its severe decline, and not the "coronavirus" at all. "Coronavirus" at this time is a human question, a question of life and death, a question of the health of all nations. It has little impact on the world economy. The economy is greatly affected by government actions to combat the epidemic, border closures, supply disruptions, and the inability to move freely. The same applies to mass protests and rallies in the United States. This is a purely social issue. As well as the health of the nation, since it was after the start of mass protests that the growth rate of COVID-2019 began to accelerate. These protests do not have a significant impact on the economy. And the same applies to the political crisis. The future of this country, peace on the world stage, as well as foreign policy and relations with China and the European Union depend on who will become the next US President. However, "here and now", the absurd actions of Trump and his funny and regular comments and interviews, which are trusted only by his ardent fans, do not have any impact on economic indicators. And the same picture in the confrontation between China and the United States. The fact that the relationship is heating up does not concern traders and investors. The US dollar remains the number one currency in the world, the currency in which the absolute majority of all international payments take place. Therefore, a new trade or "cold" war between these giants will affect their economies, and only through the economy will the exchange rate of national monetary units change. Thus, all these topics are certainly very important and interesting, and they should not be overlooked since they will play a role in the medium and long term. But they do not affect the dollar exchange rate "here and now".

The key factors that are extremely important for the euro/dollar pair remain the same and approximately equal. The economies of both regions have shrunk, the rates of both central banks have been reduced "to zero or below", and both regions are currently unable to agree and accept new aid packages for their economies. Thus, we believe that the US dollar should recoup all the losses of recent weeks in pair with the euro currency, after which the pair should be traded in a wide (as for small time frames like 4-hour) side channel.

Yesterday, a lot of important and significant information was published in the United States. First of all, this is the report on GDP for the first quarter, which a month ago predicted a reduction of 4.8%, but now it is equal to -5%. On Thursday, this figure was confirmed. A new report on applications for unemployment benefits showed that the number of primary applications increased by almost 1.5 million during the reporting week, while the number of secondary applications remained almost unchanged at 19.5 million. These 19.5 million can be considered the number of Americans who lost their jobs during the pandemic and crisis of recent months. Given the fact that the economically active population in the United States is now about 160-165 million, 20 million of them are 12.5%. Plus, you should consider those Americans who do not work and do not apply for benefits. Thus, the real unemployment in the United States is now at least 12.5%, and most likely more. The report on orders for durable goods is also quite important. The main indicator was +15.8% in May, the indicator excluding defense orders was +15.5%, excluding transport orders - +4%, excluding defense and aviation - +2.3%. All four indicators significantly exceeded their forecast values. In total, the entire package of macroeconomic statistics can be called quite positive, or at least not negative. Thus, it could provide support for the US currency, even though it was in high demand in the morning when paired with the euro and without it. And, for example, the British pound during the past day almost did not fall in price.

On the last trading day of the week in the US, only frankly secondary reports on changes in the volume of personal income and spending of the American population are planned. Personal income is expected to fall by 6% at the end of May, while expenses will grow by 9%. However, these figures are now completely disconnected from reality and are unlikely to interest market participants. There are no major events planned in the European Union today.

Thus, since the euro/dollar pair is fixed below the moving average line, the downward movement should continue. However, we believe that the pair can form a kind of side-channel right now. And in this case, after reaching the mark of 1.1170, a rebound will occur and a new round of upward movement will begin. In any case, as before, we recommend that you first pay attention to technical factors and trade strictly on the trend.

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The average volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of June 26 is 90 points and now the value of the indicator is characterized as "average", but in general, the volatility continues to decrease. We expect the pair to move between the levels of 1.1140 and 1.1320 today. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator upward may signal about a possible new cycle of an upward trend.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1108

S2 – 1.0986

S3 – 1.0864

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1230

R2 – 1.1353

R3 – 1.1475

Trading recommendations:

The euro/dollar pair changed its direction again and settled below the moving average line. Thus, at this time, short positions with the goals of 1.1140 and 1.1108 are relevant, which it is recommended to keep open until the MACD indicator turns up. It is recommended to return to buying the pair not before fixing the price above the moving average with the first goals of 1.1320 and 1.1353.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com