Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 25/06/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

Joseph Muscat, Prime Minister of Malta, announced on Sunday that every tenancy agreement in Malta will be registered in Blockchain. The announcement took place during an interview at the local radio.

The Prime Minister said that the reformed lease provisions were approved by the government after a long consultation period.

This initiative provides security, prevents data interference and ensures that only authorized persons have access to the records, Muscat said. In addition, DLT technology prevents the possibility of contracts for which there is no record.

Malta - also known as the "Blockchain Island" - entered the cryptocurrency world for the first time in July 2018, when it introduced a loose regulatory framework beneficial to DLT technology. Electronic money, financial instruments, virtual tokens, and virtual financial assets have received the path to legality.

The tolerant regulatory environment, educated workforce and EU membership contribute to the fact that Malta is becoming a growing center of Blockchain experiments.

Technical Overview:

The ETH/USD pair has bounced strongly after the recent spike down occurred, but the move upwards was made on a clearly lower volume and momentum. This kind of aggressive and dynamic volatility is nothing new on the crypto market, so it does not mean the trend will reverse now, but there is a possibility of a top for the wave (b) of the Irregular Flat correction to be made final. However, if the market will make another higher high the count will be invalidated. The main technical support is seen at the level of $288.61.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $399.14

WR2 - $359.00

WR1 - $340.76

Weekly Pivot - $299.53

WS1 - $285.30

WS2 - $243.70

WS3 - $227.28

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 4, which is a corrective wave and after is completed, the uptrend should resume.

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Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 25/06/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

A representative of the Russian Ministry of Finance claims that the Ministry is considering permission to trade cryptocurrencies, according to the Russian information service.

According to the publication, deputy finance minister Alexei Moiseyev told reporters that although the Ministry did not make a final decision, cryptocurrency trading could be allowed in the upcoming project on the circulation of cryptocurrencies in the Russian Federation.

A bill prohibiting the use of cryptographic assets as a means of payment in the Russian Federation was adopted in May last year.

Anatoly Aksakov, head of the Duma Financial Markets Committee, called the pending decision a compromise and noted that the Financial Action Task Force had recommended Russia to adopt a bill regulating the circulation of cryptocurrencies by the end of this year.

Earlier this week, information appeared that the State Duma, the Russian parliament, expects to adopt the largest national cryptographic law "On Digital Financial Assets" (DFA) in the next two weeks.

Moiseev then stated that the Ministry of Finance also approved separate provisions on ICO, which will be part of the Russian Social Financing Act.

Technical Overview:

So far the BTC/USD market is locked in a narrow range located between the levels of $10,3018 - $11,338, but the bulls are trying to rally again as the price is testing the recent high at the level of $11,338. Any breakout through the resistance will open the road towards the level of $11,714 and any breakout below the lower support level will be a signal for a larget corrective cycle to start. Moreover, the trend on the larger timeframe is still up and there are no signs of any trend reversal.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $14,368

WR2 - $12,738

WR1 - $12,143

Weekly Pivot - $10,500

WS1 - $9,956

WS2 - $8,295

WS3 - $7,678

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larget correction is just around the corner, as all the major impulsive waves have been completed.

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Forecast for AUD / USD pair on June 25, 2019

AUD / USD pair

The Australian dollar made its way through the resistance of the MACD line on the daily chart, but this morning, I received a U-turn from the nested line of the price channel. Marlin's leading oscillator points to a turnaround on both scales are in question but the signal line fits into a rectangular consolidation on H4, which may serve as a harbinger of a price breakthrough. This scenario assumes the growth of "Australian" after fixing the price above today's maximum above the line of the daily price channel. The next target when it grows is in the upper limit of the channel at 0.7048.

The downward price movement is more difficult. Formally, the target is in the underlying line of the price channel with a mark of 0.6860, but there are two strong supports ahead. The first is the MACD line at 0.6912 on H4. Below it, the price level of 0.6887 was achieved on June 19 and 17. It remains only for us to wait for the development of the situation.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 25/06/2019:

Technical Overview:

Despite the strong momentum, the GBP/USD pair rally has been capped at the technical resistance zone located between the levels of 1.2746 - 12761. There was a minimal breakout above the zone, but the price quickly reversed and made a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern. Please notice the market conditions are now overbought, so a local pull-back towards the level of 1.2725 or even 1.2668 might be made before the final push through the resistance. The larget time frame trend is still down.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3080

WR2 - 1.2903

WR1 - 1.2852

Weekly Pivot - 1.2673

WS1 - 1.2612

WS2 - 1.2435

WS3 - 1.2368

Trading Recommendations:

The current move up might the beginning of a larger impulsive breakout, so only the buy orders should be opened. The best strategy for this market is to open the buy orders during the local pull-back or larger corrections. Nevertheless, please notice that the larget time frame trend is down, so all the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the downtrend.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 25/06/2019:

Technical Overview:

The EUR/USD pair has made another higher high as it hit the technical resistance at the level of 1.1406. Despite the overbought conditions, the momentum is still strong and positive, so the bounce is getting extended. In the case of a local pull-back, the nearest technical support is seen at the level of 1.1361 and 1.1347. On the other hand, the nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1419.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1662

WR2 - 1.1520

WR1 - 1.1459

Weekly Pivot - 1.1309

WS1 - 1.1258

WS2 - 1.1120

WS3 - 1.1064

Trading Recommendations:

The current move up might the beginning of a larger impulsive breakout, so only the buy orders should be opened. The best strategy for this market is to open the buy orders during the local pull-back or larger corrections.

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Technical analysis: Important intraday Level For EUR/USD, June 25,2019

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When the European market opens, no economic data will be published. The US will release such economic data as New Home Sales, Richmond Manufacturing Index, CB ConsumerConfidence, S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y, and HPI m/m. So, amid the reports,EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1455. Strong Resistance:1.1448. Original Resistance: 1.1437. Inner Sell Area: 1.1426. Target Inner Area: 1.1399. Inner Buy Area: 1.1372. Original Support: 1.1361. Strong Support: 1.1350. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1343. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important intraday level for USD/JPY, June 25,2019

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Japan will release the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, SPPIy/y, and BOJ Core CPI y/y. The US will release such economic data as New Home Sales, Richmond Manufacturing Index, CB Consumer Confidence, S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y, and HPI m/m. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Resistance. 3:107.78. Resistance. 2:107.57. Resistance. 1:107.36. Support. 1:107.10. Support. 2:106.89. Support. 3:106.68. (Disclaimer)

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for June 25 - 2019

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The rally in GBP/JPY from 135.35 is still not certain and we need a clear break above minor resistance at 137.18 to confirm that wave 2 has completed and wave 3 is developing. The short-term minor support in the 135.91 - 136.03 area will be able to protect the downside for a new challenge of the minor resistance at 137.18 and a break above here will call for a rally towards 138.34 as the next upside hurdle.

A break below 135.91 will be disappointing and shift the bias back towards the downside for a possible dip to 134.50 but the downside potential remains limited from here.

R3: 137.79

R2: 137.53

R1: 137.18

Pivot: 136.85

S1: 136.47

S2: 136.03

S3: 135.92

Trading recommendation:

We are long GBP from 136.96 with our stop placed at 135.86

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 25 - 2019

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EUR/JPY is currently correcting the first impulsive rally from 120.92. Ideally, support in the 121.50 - 121.70 area will be able to protect the downside for the next rally higher towards 123.18 and 124.16 as the next hurdles towards the upside.

Longer term EUR/JPY ultimately should break above the 127.50 peak.

Only an unexpected break below support at 120.92 will invalidate our bullish expectations

R3: 123.75

R2: 123.18

R1: 122.45

Pivot: 121.85

S1: 121.70

S2: 121.50

S3: 120.92

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 121.98 with our stop placed at 120.85

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Trading plan for EURUSD for June 25, 2019

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Technical outlook:

It is quite clear that EURUSD has changed tracks for medium-term since printing 1.1107 lows in May 2019. It has been carving higher lows and higher highs with strong support coming in at 1.1180, followed by 1.1117 levels respectively. Aggressive short positions should be avoided for now with prices poised to push higher and near term resistance is seen at 1.1430/40 levels. It is recommended to stay aside and allow the EURUSD to retrace lower a bit before getting on the trend again. We have displayed the potential support levels at Fibonacci ratios to enter on dips and 1.1270 levels seem to be the optimum to initiate long positions. If the pair continues to push ahead from here, then the next stop could be at 1.1430/40, followed by 1.1500 levels respectively. It is advisable to wait for a dip lower and enter buying rather that attempting aggressive shorts.

Trading plan:

Remain flat for now and look to buy lower @ 1.1270 levels.

Good luck!

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Forecast for EUR/USD for June 25, 2019

EUR/USD

On Monday, the euro increased by 28 points - growth slowed, and the leading Marlin oscillator on the daily and four-hour charts began to discharge, relieve tension. This can be both an early signal for a trend reversal, and the indicator itself is discharged before further growth of the instrument. Visually, the Marlin is discharged before growth.

The price develops in the range between the two Fibonacci levels of the daily chart: 76.4% (1.1356) and 61.8% (1.1445), the bottom line serves as support, respectively, the correction before further euro growth can be to this level. Growth can continue without a correction to the resistance of 1.1445. Consolidating above the level will make it possible for the price to reach the next Fibonacci level of 50.0% (1.1514), which coincides with the high on January 31.

Consolidating the price below 1.1356 will make it possible to work out the MACD line on the four-hour chart around 1.1306.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on June 25, 2019

GBP/USD

Yesterday, the pound solved the main task for the possibility of further growth - it consolidated above the line of the price channel on the daily chart. The balance line was on top of a strong resistance. The daily Marlin oscillator signal line lies at the horizon, which makes it possible for the pound to continue its slow growth below the balance line and reach the MACD line (1.2832), presumably at the point where both indicator lines coincide. From this point, a reversal or correction is likely.

There is a weak convergence on the four-hour chart on the Marlin oscillator, but nevertheless it is closer in form to consolidation in the growth zone, which may soon continue to increase the indicator and price.

A signal for a reversal will be the departure of the price below the price channel line on the daily chart and below the MACD line (1.2690) at the four-hour price.

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GBP/USD approaching resistance, potential drop!

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GBPUSD is approaching resistance where we might see a drop in price.

Entry: 1.2777

Why it's good : Horizontal swing high resistance, 61.8% Fibonacci extension, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss : 1.2813

Why it's good : Horizontal swing high resistance

Take Profit : 1.2715

Why it's good: 61.8% Fibonacci extension, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, Horizontal overlap support

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AUD/USD reversed off resistance, potential drop!

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Price reversed off its resistance where we expect to see it drop further to its support at 0.6936.

Entry : 0.6964

Why it's good : 61.8% Fibonacci extension, 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance

Stop Loss : 0.7013

Why it's good : 100% Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance

Take Profit : 0.6936

Why it's good : 50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support

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USD/JPY breakout, possible drop!

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Price dropped nicely.We expect to see a further drop from the intermediate support level.

Entry : 107.047

Why it's good : 61.8% Fibonacci Extension, horizontal swing low support

Take Profit : 106.466

Why it's good : 61.8% Fibonacci Extension, 76.4% Fibonacci retracement

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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs for June 25

Forecast for June 25:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1452, 1.1428, 1.1404, 1.1388, 1.1353, 1.1334 and 1.1305. Here, we continue to follow the development of the ascending structure of June 18. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the passage of the price of the noise range 1.1388 - 1.1404. In this case, the target is 1.1428, wherein consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.1452. After reaching which, we expect a departure to the correction.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.1353 - 1.1334. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 1.1305. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the ascending structure of June 18.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1405 Take profit: 1.1428

Buy 1.1430 Take profit: 1.1452

Sell: 1.1353 Take profit: 1.1335

Sell: 1.1332 Take profit: 1.1305

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2906, 1.2842, 1.2798, 1.2713, 1.2688, 1.2636 and 1.2608. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of June 18. At the moment, we expect a movement to the level of 1.2798. Short-term upward movement is possible in the range 1.2798 - 1.2842. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to movement to the potential target - 1.2906. Upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.2713 - 1.2688. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.2636. The range of 1.2636 - 1.2608 is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the ascending structure of June 18.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2798 Take profit: 1.2840

Buy: 1.2844 Take profit: 1.2904

Sell: 1.2713 Take profit: 1.2688

Sell: 1.2685 Take profit: 1.2636

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9847, 0.9824, 0.9769, 0.9738, 0.9688 and 0.9651. Here, we are following the development of the downward cycle of June 19th. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9688. Here, the potential target is 0.9651. From the range of 0.9688 - 0.9651, we expect to go to the correction zone.

Short-term upward trend is possible in the range of 0.9738 - 0.9769. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the development of a protracted correction. Here, the goal is 0.9824. The range 0.9824 - 0.9847 is a key support for the downward structure. Before it, we expect the initial conditions for the upward cycle.

The main trend is the downward cycle of June 19.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9738 Take profit: 0.9767

Buy : 0.9773 Take profit: 0.9824

Sell: 0.9686 Take profit: 0.9653

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 108.12, 107.77, 107.54, 107.08, 106.65 and 106.35. Here, the downward structure of June 17 is considered as a medium-term initial conditions. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 107.08. Here, the goal is 106.65. For the potential value for the bottom, we still consider the level of 106.35. After reaching which, we expect to go into a correction.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 107.54 - 107.77. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the potential target is 108.12. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend: the downward cycle of June 17.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 107.55 Take profit: 107.76

Buy : 107.78 Take profit: 108.10

Sell: 107.05 Take profit: 106.65

Sell: 106.62 Take profit: 106.37

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3277, 1.3235, 1.3208, 1.3154, 1.3137, 1.3104 and 1.3069. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of June 18. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the price passes the noise range 1.3154 - 1.3137. In this case, the target is 1.3104, wherein consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.3069. After reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.3208 - 1.3235. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.3277. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend - the downward structure of June 18.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3208 Take profit: 1.3233

Buy : 1.3237 Take profit: 1.3275

Sell: 1.3137 Take profit: 1.3106

Sell: 1.3102 Take profit: 1.3070

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For the pair Australian dollar / US dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.7039, 0.7012, 0.6972, 0.6959, 0.6927, 0.6913, 0.6892 and 0.6881. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of June 18. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the price passes the noise range 0.6959 - 0.6972. In this case, the target is 0.7012, wherein consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.7039. After reaching which, we expect a consolidation, as well as a rollback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.6927 - 0.6913. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.6892. The range of 0.6892 - 0.6881 is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure on June 18.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6972 Take profit: 0.7012

Buy: 0.7014 Take profit: 0.7036

Sell : 0.6927 Take profit : 0.6914

Sell: 0.6910 Take profit: 0.6892

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 123.27, 122.97, 122.53, 122.36, 121.97, 121.78 and 121.52. Here, we are following the formation of the ascending structure of June 21. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after passing by the price of the noise range 122.36 - 122.53. In this case, the goal is 122.97, wherein consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 123.27. After reaching which, we expect a rollback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 121.97 - 121.78. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 121.52. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend - the formation of potential for the top of June 21.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 122.36 Take profit: 122.50

Buy: 122.56 Take profit: 122.95

Sell: 121.97 Take profit: 121.80

Sell: 121.76 Take profit: 121.52

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 138.04, 137.60, 137.30, 136.92, 136.40, 136.18, 135.77 and 135.32. Here, we continue to monitor the formation of the potential for the top of June 18. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 136.92. In this case, the goal is 137.30. A short-term upward movement is in the range of 137.30 – 137.60, as well as consolidation. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 138.04. The movement to which is expected after the breakdown of the level of 137.60.

Consolidated movement is possible in the range of 136.40 - 136.18. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 135.77. This level is a key support for the top. Its price passage will count on movement towards the first goal for the downward movement - 135.32.

The main trend - the formation of potential for the top of June 18.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 136.92 Take profit: 137.30

Buy: 137.32 Take profit: 137.60

Sell: 136.18 Take profit: 135.85

Sell: 135.75 Take profit: 135.33

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EUR / USD h4 vs USD / JPY h4 vs EUR / JPY. Comprehensive analysis of movement options from June 25, 2019. Analysis of APLs

A comprehensive analysis of movement options of the European and Japanese currency + cross-instrument of these -> EUR / USD vs USD / JPY vs EUR / JPY from June 25, 2019.

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Euro vs US Dollar

Testing and the direction of the breakdown of coincident boundaries (1.1355 <-> 1.1390 <-> 1.1420) equilibrium zone of Minuette operating scale fork will determine the further development of the movement of the single European currency EUR / USD on June 25 2019. Details of working out the boundaries of these zones of equilibrium can be seen on the animated graphics.

The breakdown of the support level of 1.1355 (intersection of ISL38.2 Minuette and ISL38.2 Minuette) -> development of the downward movement of EUR / USD can be continued to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel Minuette (1.1330 <-> 1.1305 <-> 1.1285) with the prospect of reaching the support level of 1.1260 at the intersection of the initial SSL lines of the Minuette operational scale fork.

The breakdown of the resistance level of 1.1.1420 (intersection of ISL61.8 Minuette and ISL61.8 Minuette) -> the option of continuing the development of the upward movement of the single European currency to the final FSL (1.1525) line of the Minuette operational scale fork.

The markup of the EUR / USD movement options is shown in the animated graphics.

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US Dollar vs Japanese Yen

The movement of the USD / JPY on June 25, 2019 is due to perfecting the boundaries channel of the 1/2 Median Line (107.40 <-> 107.55 <-> 107.70) Minuette operational scale fork. More details of the movement inside this channel are shown on the animated graphics.

The breakdown of the level of resistance 107.70 (the upper boundary of the channel of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette) together with ISL38.2 Minuette (107.80) -> development of the movement USD / JPY continues to equilibrium zone (107.80 <-> 108.00 <-> 108.25) Minuette operational scale fork, and in case of a breakdown of ISL61.8 Minuette (108.25), the upward movement of this currency instrument can be continued to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (108.65 <-> 109.05 <-> 109.45) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

The breakdown of the support level of 107.40 (lower boundary of the channel of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette) and the control line LTL (107.33) of the Minuette operational scale fork -> development of the USD / JPY movement can continue to the goals -> initial line SSL Minuette (107.10) <-> local minimum (107.05) <-> control line LTL Minuette (106.95) <-> warning line LWL38.2 (106.45) Minuette operating scale fork.

Markup options for the USD / JPY movement are indicated in the animated graphic ->

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Euro vs Japanese Yen

From June 25, 2019, the cross-instrument EUR / JPY will develop its movement in accordance with the working out and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (121.80 <-> 122.10 <-> 1.2240) of the Minuette operating scale fork.

The breakdown of the lower boundary of the channel of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette (support level of 121.80) -> the downward movement of the cross instrument can be continued to the goals -> SSL start line (121.20) of the Minuette <-> minimum (120.93 <-> 120.76).

On the other hand, the breakdown of the upper boundary of the channel of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette (resistance level of 122.40) will confirm that further development of the cross-instrument movement will continue in the equilibrium zone (122.30 <-> 122.70 <-> 123.14) of the Minuette operating scale fork, and later , the breakdown of ISL61.8 Minuette (123.14) and ISL38.2 Minuette (123.20) will be the actual development of the EUR / JPY movement within the equilibrium zone (123.20 <-> 123.95 <-> 124.65) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

Marking options for the movement of the cross-instrument EUR / JPY is presented in the animated graphic ->

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The review was compiled without taking into account of the news background. The opening of the trading session of the main financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

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What was it? (weekly review of EUR/USD and GBP/USD from 06/24/2019)

So I want to exclaim - what was it?!

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The dollar stood still for a couple of days and then rushed into the unknown distance. Yes, even with such speed that no one could come to its senses. The Federal Reserve System gave a magic kick in the ass already at the stage of announcing the composition of the team, so even before Jerome Powell's press conference it became known that one of the members of the Federal Commission on Open Market Operations had voted to lower the refinancing rate. Then the team captain gave the dollar even greater acceleration, saying that a considerable number of its partners, part-time employees and subordinates, do not exclude the possibility of reducing the refinancing rate to as much as 2.0%. True, so far they do not intend to take such actions, but the situation is developing in such a way that such an opportunity should not be ruled out. So all Thursday, the dollar flew like a soccer ball sent to its own goal. As soon as it lost all the kinetic energy, Lael Brainard and Loretta Mester played the role of defenders, they almost cut the ball into their own goal. They managed to say such that the number of gray-haired people in the world clearly increased. Although they voted for the preservation of the parameters of the monetary policy pursued, but only for the reason that right now they do not see the need to lower the refinancing rate, they do not exclude such a possibility for this year. Take note, not a word about raising the refinancing rate, which appears in the previously announced plans of the Federal Reserve System. So, laughter is laughter, but in fact we are on the verge of a cardinal turn in the policy of the Federal Reserve System, and instead of gradually tightening it on the horizon, its softening looms with might and main. It is no wonder that investors sold out portraits of dead American presidents with incredible frenzy. The frequency with which representatives of the Federal Reserve make such statements is more like an attempt to please Donald Trump, who is so outraged by the dollar that he again threatened Jerome Powell with early resignation.

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Against the background of such large-scale events, no one paid attention to the meeting of the Board of the Bank of England, which continues to remain in an ostrich's pose, hiding its head in the sand. Although even if there were no harsh statements by representatives of the Federal Reserve System, no one would have paid attention to the inaction of the Bank of England. The Office of Mark Carney has long stated that there will be no changes in the regulator's policy until it becomes clear how Brexit will end. But events are developing in such a way that everything goes in time for the saddest end of this whole epic. Boris Johnson, who is in favor of a speedy divorce with the European Union, and even without an agreement, because the existing one does not fully suit him, since it implies certain payments from the United Kingdom, confidently won the qualifying race for the post of head of the Conservative Party. Now almost one hundred and sixty thousand party members through the mail must choose who will become their leader, Boris Johnson or Jeremy Hunt. Considering how far the former foreign minister has bypassed the current one, there is almost no doubt that Boris Johnson will become the new head of the Conservative Party, and considering its majority in the House of Commons, also the new prime minister. This means that Brexit will follow the worst-case scenario, without any deal and with unpredictable consequences for the economy of both the UK and the European Union. It is clear that the economy of continental Europe will experience a number of difficulties, but it is still difficult to say how it will all end for the United Kingdom. Tarot cards give an ambiguous answer - whether the Apocalypse or Armageddon.

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Naturally, enthusiastically eating popcorn while watching the Brexit series and the Federal Reserve System is somehow not conducive to the study of boring and dreary macroeconomic statistics. But there was something to see. The number of building permits increased by 0.3%, but the number of new construction projects decreased by 0.9%. Although home sales in the secondary market increased by 2.5%. Also, the total number of applications for unemployment benefits fell by 43 thousand, while waiting for a decline of only 13 thousand. But at the same time, preliminary data on business activity indices showed a decrease in the production index from 50.5 to 50.1, and in the service sector from 50.9 to 50.6. As a result, the composite index of business activity fell from 50.9 to 50.7. But this is as far as the United States is concerned, and it can be seen that, in general, the data are not so positive and rather neutral. But there were enough interesting results in Europe. There is only one, the final data on inflation, which due to the revision of the previous values showed a decrease from 1.7% to 1.2%. Given that until recently, April inflation was estimated at 1.2% and it was expected that it will remain unchanged in May, the picture looked relatively good. Now everyone has seen that inflation is seriously slowing down, which means that the European Central Bank will be much more likely to look for options for easing monetary policy. True, this is the only thing that could upset investors, since the rest of the macroeconomic data from Europe were clearly positive. In particular, the growth rate of the construction industry slowed from 5.8% not to 1.9%, but to 3.9%. But what is much more interesting is that the preliminary data on business activity indices turned out to be significantly better than the American ones, since all the indicators showed an increase. The manufacturing index of business activity rose from 47.7 to 47.8, and in the service sector from 52.9 to 53.4, which gave a composite index increase from 51.8 to 52.1. But given the extremely weak data on inflation, there are clearly no reasons for the growth of the single European currency. But the British statistics more likely indicates that the pound had to go down with confidence, because not only did inflation fall from 2.1% to 2.0%, so also the growth rate of retail sales slowed down from 5.1% to 2 3%. But such an explosive mixture for all sorts of investors is the very incense, from which devils scatter through all the cracks.

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After Fed representatives sent the dollar into unthinkable distances, the market, of course, needs to take a breath and collect its thoughts. But this week, Jerome Powell is again in favor, and there is every reason to believe that he will continue to bury the portraits of the dead presidents of the United States with further hints of a speedy reduction in the refinancing rate. There will be at least one person who will rejoice over this, Donald Trump. However, in the US they expect a slight increase in sales of new homes, as well as orders for durable goods. Moreover, the final GDP data for the first quarter should confirm the fact of accelerating economic growth. Personal incomes with personal expenses can show an increase of 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively, which usually pleases investors. In Europe, preliminary inflation data will be published, which are expected to show its stability. As for the UK, there is still a slight lull in terms of Brexit, since the results of the election of the head of the Conservative Party will not be known anytime soon. But the final GDP data for the first quarter will be published, which will almost certainly confirm the fact of accelerating economic growth. Nevertheless, this is already taken into account by market participants, and they will increasingly reflect on the consequences for the British economy, just unregulated Brexit.

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In other words, if Jerome Powell does not add fuel to the fire again, then, due to macroeconomic statistics and the oversoldness of the dollar, the single European currency may drop to 1.1300 - 1.1325. Well, if the head of the Fed continues to frighten market participants, then we are waiting for a rise above 1.1400.

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In regards to the pound, the options are exactly the same, and either we will witness its decline to 1.2625 or see a continued growth to 1.2800 and above.

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The pound is aiming for $1.29

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The G-20 summit, which will take place this weekend and is anticipated by market participants, will be crucial for US-China relations. It should show how the parties are interested in resolving the trade conflict. So far, traders hopes to achieve at least some agreements between the United States and China support high-yielding and risky assets. The dollar at this time continues to be under pressure because of the Fed's announced plans to lower the rate this year and next.

It also became apparent that the Republicans and Democrats, who forever oppose each other, have both agreed that a weak dollar was needed for further prosperity of the United States. It doesn't matter which way this effect will be achieved - by a stream of negative statistics either by lowering the FED rate, or by Donald Trump's tweets.

While Washington clearly set a course for lowering the value of its national currency, the previously oversold British pound is trying to take advantage of the situation and at least partially restore losses. The cautious policy of the Bank of England speaks in favor of the GBP/USD pair growth.

The BOE is very restrained in assessing the prospects for global growth, but still sees the need for tighter policies if his predictions are correct. Judging by the latest reports, the UK economy is not in the best shape: retail sales have fallen by 0.5% for the second month in a row, which has already led to a decrease in the annual figure to 2.3% from 5.1%. Until the Brexit problem is solved, the central bank of England will not go for a rate increase.

As for Brexit, Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt quite logically meet in the finals of the struggle for the post of Tory leader, but the latter has no chance of winning. "Without 5 minutes," prime minister - Johnson - actively speaks out on the topic of Brexit and states the need to preserve the possibility of blackmail in the matter of paying compensation for leaving the European Union. The last announced amount was more than 50 billion euros. Boris Johnson will most likely want new negotiations on the subject of "divorce" conditions, but Europe's position is tough and, according to Tusk, the United Kingdom is simply inefficiently wasting time.

However, there was some certainty regarding Brexit, it became clear to everyone that Britain will leave the EU this autumn, no matter what, and no matter who becomes the next British prime minister. Market participants perceived a new certainty rather positively. Thus, the pound may recover to $1.2920-50 in the coming weeks.

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EUR/USD: Exit above $1.14 will trigger a pullback

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Now, when the Fed and the ECB have given an open signal to the market to ease monetary policy, the question arises, who has the largest arsenal of ammunition? There is no need to look for an answer for a long time, since the European Central Bank clearly looks weaker: interest on deposits is already negative, and the effectiveness of QE is debatable. In this case, Jerome Powell and his team can safely reduce the rate several times. The derivatives market signals a 94% and 66% probability of easing policy this year by 25 bp and 50 bp A good background for EUR/USD, so why not grow?

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In order to update the June peak, euro fans needed fresh drivers, and they got them. Business activity in the eurozone services sector rose to a 7-month high, pulling the composite purchasing managers index. Yes, trade wars make their mark, the manufacturing sector remains weak, but ahead of Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, who can change everything. The chain of events: the end of the US-China conflict - the recovery of the Chinese economy - the growth of German exports - the strengthening of the euro is working. That's just for its implementation takes time.

It is worth noting that the growth of the euro entirely now depends on the demand for the dollar. Therefore, it is unlikely that the EUR/USD pair would be able to shoot at the data on business activity in the euro bloc. Of course, the main role here was played by the large-scale closure of long speculative positions on the US currency.

However, the fundamental factors are now emerging in favor of a gradual upward trend in EUR/USD. The Fed is ready to lower rates, the market is waiting for the end of the trade war and the improvement of macroeconomic statistics for the eurozone. Here again, not everything goes smoothly. There is an opinion that the Fed is deceiving or, more correctly, to say, keep back. In reality, there are not enough reasons to reduce the rate. If Washington agrees with China, then they will not remain at all.

Recall, Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida noted that the regulator will start to operate only when necessary. FOMC spokesperson Lael Brainard said that economic growth in the country is quite strong, just in early May there was uncertainty of a political nature, which may well disappear. Then the word "patience" will reappear in the lexicon of the Fed leadership. The US, like many other countries of the world, is facing a slowdown in inflation, but the reason for this lies in an extremely soft monetary policy.

The head of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, James Bullard is confident that the rate cut will accelerate inflation. Theoretically it should be so, but in real life we see a different picture. Rumors of monetary expansion contribute to a fall in inflation expectations and a slowdown in PCE.

"Bullish" forecasts for EUR/USD come true, quotes of the pair ended at multi-month highs last week. The main pair also began the new week with growth. At the same time, the euro's growth to the levels of $1.14 and $1.144 will enhance the risks of a pullback against the background of the de-escalation of the trade conflict between the United States and China and the associated increase in yield of treasuries.

Consideration should also be given to increased tensions between the United States and Iran. The euro will not like it, however, like the US dollar, if we consider it together with the safe-haven yen. However, the greenback is unlikely to fall below 105, since a significant refusal of investors from dollar assets is unlikely.

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Golden Rush: the price of the yellow metal exceeded $1,400

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On Monday, June 24, the price of gold istood at a previously reached mark, exceeding $1,400 per ounce. Last Friday, the precious metal's price soared to $1,411 per ounce and is currently seeking to hold its positions.

According to analysts, the current price is the highest since September 2013. Experts believe that the rising cost of precious metals demonstrates a decrease in risk appetite against the backdrop of increasing geopolitical tensions. The yellow metal is once again becoming attractive to investors as a safe-haven asset.

Previously, gold was supported by the decision of the US Federal Reserve to soften monetary policy, if necessary. The reasons for this were such factors as the growth of geopolitical uncertainty and low inflation, slowing the rise of the American economy. Following the Fed's meeting, the yellow metal's quotes rose by $13, to $1,364 for 1 troy ounce. At the end of last week, the precious metal managed to overcome the psychologically important mark of $1,400 per ounce. In this regard, a number of experts believe that gold may later become cheaper, since it has already reached the target range of $1,375– $ 1,400 for an ounce.

The yellow metal grew in price for the fifth week in a row. Experts believe that in the short term, it will continue to fluctuate in the range of $1,380 to $1,410 per ounce. A positive impulse for gold may continue in the second half of 2019, as the Fed is ready to ease monetary policy, and other leading regulators may follow its example. Experts consider the $1450 gold price per troy ounce to be the medium-term benchmark.

According to analysts, the current rise of gold prices in many currencies of the world is close to the record levels of previous years. A few months ago, the cost of precious metals peaked in countries such as Argentina, Australia, Brazil and Sweden. In a number of other countries, such as Canada, India, Mexico, South Africa, Turkey, and Uruguay, the price of gold remains high. In Russia and Hungary, the precious metal is almost close to its maximum values. Experts do not exclude that in the near future the yellow metal will be able to break the current price record.

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GBP/USD. A family scandal lowered Johnson's rating and supported the British currency

The pound-dollar pair within the 27th figure had increased by over 200 points during the week. The British currency has moved away from the price lows of the year and is now trying to show character using the greenback's weakness. However, not only is the dollar devaluation pulling up the GBP/USD: for the first time in a long time, the pound had its own growth arguments, which appeared from a rather unexpected side. And although the general uncertainty still puts pressure on the pair, buyers are using every opportunity to prolong the period of the corrective price increase. Today, the GBP/USD pair has reached the resistance level of 1.2770 (the top line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart), but could not break through it, but the potential for further growth still remains.

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Against the background of an almost empty economic calendar, the British currency reacts to news of a political nature. Let me remind you that now in Britain there is a struggle for the post of head of the leading Conservative Party, and in fact for the post of prime minister of the country. After several rounds of voting, two candidates entered the "finals" of the political race: ex-foreign minister Boris Johnson and current foreign minister Jeremy Hunt. Throughout the pre-election period, Johnson, who is known for his tough position on Brexit, was considered the undisputed favorite of the race. He is in favor of revising the terms of the deal, but at the same time he opposes the extension of the negotiation period after October 31. In his opinion, Brexit should take place at all costs on November 1 - with or without a deal. A "hard" Brexit does not frighten Johnson, moreover - he threatened Brussels not to pay the multibillion-dollar amount of "compensation" until Europe reconsiders the terms of the agreement with London.

In other words, his coming to power does not bode well for the pound, given the position of the British regulator, who, in fact, "tied" the question of Brexit to the prospects of monetary policy. It is for this reason that the British currency has been under strong pressure for several weeks: Johnson has maintained an undeniable advantage in the political race all this time, and this fact increased the likelihood of a "chaotic" Brexit. Hunt, following several rounds of voting, lagged behind the leader of the election campaign by several dozen points and seemed to have no chance of winning. But, as it turned out, everything is possible in politics, and even more so in British politics.

According to the results of the latest opinion polls, Boris Johnson not only lost his advantage in the overall rating over his main opponent Jeremy Hunt, but is now behind him. The reason for this, oddly enough, was the personal life of Johnson, namely his quarrel with the mistress. At the end of last week, the neighbors of the couple recorded the audio of the beats and female cries that were heard from their home in London. They even called the police, but law enforcement officers only recorded the fact of a family quarrel without any offenses.

But after this incident in the UK, a rather heated debate began on whether Boris Johnson is capable of being prime minister, given his personal qualities, in particular, stress tolerance. He added fuel to the fire and his public reaction to this incident. He refused to answer the question about this situation, saying the following: "I believe that people do not want to hear about such things." After this, Johnson was even criticized by his colleagues in the Conservative Party. In particular, Tory deputy Malcolm Rifkind accused him of hiding "important information for the public," and former Foreign Minister Alan Duncan said that Johnson now has a "big question mark over his head."

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As a result, a domestic family conflict has found fatal consequences for an odious candidate: after the incident, Johnson's leadership declined among all voters and among Conservatives. The latest poll showed that 29% of all voters consider Boris Johnson to be the most optimal prime minister, while Hunt was supported by 32%. Among members of the Conservative party, Johnson's leadership also declined (from 55% to 45%), while Hunt's position increased from 28% to 34%.

In addition, according to the British edition of The Times, even if elected, Johnson can pass a vote of no confidence - if he tries to withdraw the country from the European Union without a deal on October 31. According to anonymous sources, the Labour Party initiates a Parliamentary vote on this issue nearly on the first day of Johnson's term in office. According to the publication's interlocutors, a significant part of the Conservatives will support Labour, especially if Johnson does not abandon the idea of extending the negotiation process after October 31.

On the one hand, such information reduces the likelihood of the implementation of a "hard" Brexit. On the other hand, the published information is in the nature of rumors, which are often not confirmed. Johnson's downgrade is good news for GBP/USD bulls, but even against the background of the scandal, he retains leadership among members of the Conservative Party (although the gap with Hunt has significantly decreased).

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Thus, the controversial fundamental background does not make it possible for bulls of the pair to break through the resistance level of 1.2770 and enter the 28th figure. But if Johnson's rating will continue to fall, and the dollar will still be under pressure from the US Federal Reserve's position, these price targets will be easily overcome by GBP/USD bulls.

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GBP/USD. June 24. Results of the day. The US dollar managed to win back some of the previously lost positions against the

4-hour timeframe

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The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 76p - 59p - 131p - 96p - 104p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 93p (93p).

The British pound sterling was slightly adjusted on Monday, June 24. As we remember from the EUR/USD review, there was no correction. Accordingly, this is what we talked about earlier. The situation with Brexit, a political crisis and a hazy future continues to dominate over the pound. That is why the euro can show a strengthening in the future (although its prospects are also not 100%) while the pound can resume a fall. So far, of course, it is still too early to talk about resuming the downward trend, too much negative has come from overseas in recent weeks. Nevertheless, traders are simply afraid to buy the British currency, knowing that the "hard" Brexit is not one of the possible options now, but the most likely option of a "divorce" between the EU and the UK. Firstly, because Boris Johnson is not at all afraid of the "hard" scenario. Secondly, because the European Union officially abandoned new negotiations under the terms of the exit agreement and advised the new prime minister not to waste time on false dreams. New referendum? The probability of holding it is present, especially since Opposition party leader Jeremy Corbyn supports this option. But this also testifies to the fact that even before the proclamation of the new prime minister, we already have a potential split in opinions between the Conservatives and the Laborites. It is because of this that the Parliament can again "slip" at the polls. Recall that the new date Brexit is October 31.

Trading recommendations:

The pound/dollar currency pair started the downward correction, keeping the upward trend. Thus, a rebound from the Kijun-sen line or a reversal of the MACD upwards will make it possible to buy the pound to a resistance level of 1.2822.

It will be possible to buy the US dollar if the pair has consolidated below the Kijun-sen line. In this case, the downward trend may resume with the first target support level of 1.2582.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com