The dollar made a halt

What does not kill, it makes us stronger. Neither the mass resignation of ministers in Britain, the threat of insurrection in parliament and the vote of no confidence in Theresa May, nor Italy's refusal to rewrite the draft budget submitted to Brussels did not drown the euro ship. But the increased political risks in the Old World became the catalyst of the EUR/USD pair to peak at a 17-month lows in the first half of November. Who could have imagined that the EU's silence and a riot inside Albion would allow the bulls to form the bottom?

In order to understand what is happening, you need to get into the heads of speculators. They have long been accumulating long positions on the US dollar, and now they fear the risks of lost profits. This is when the profits on the computer screen are alike but you don't know what to do -either keep holding longs or start getting rid of them. The version that the US economy and the process of normalizing the monetary policy of the Fed will slow down. In this regard, the slightest hint of weakness of the USD index leads to its sales. The cost of core inflation in the States did not reach forecasts (+ 2.1% against the estimate of + 2.2%) as the EUR / USD pair went up.

Thus, the success of the "bulls" in the main currency pair is entirely due to the closure of speculative positions on the US dollar. In the third quarter, the German economy went into minus for the first time in 3.5 years, the core inflation in the eurozone doesn't protest. Political risks are high and the ECB chief economist Peter Praet talks about maintaining ultra-soft monetary policy for a long time that is If necessary and while it looks necessary.

Dynamics of core inflation in the euro area

JzDwyrFydQSOEdQzSZ1tK6efQ3UG_FJQkZI_fF5R

In the week to November 23, the situation may change radically. Firstly, the economic calendar for the euro seems to be more saturated than for the dollar. Secondly, Brussels can not be silent forever and certainly will say a couple of affectionate Rome. Thirdly, the G20 summit will take place at the end of the week. On the sidelines of which, Donald Trump and Xi Jinping will meet.

The minutes of the October meeting of the Governing Council of the ECB and the release of data on business activity in the eurozone will clarify the views of the Central Bank and the prospects for economic recovery of the currency bloc in the fourth quarter. I doubt that the EU will make concessions to Italy and the exacerbation of political risks will contribute to the growth of the republic's bond yields, as well as the expansion of spreads with German counterparts and sales of EUR/USD pair. It is unlikely that the meeting of the leaders of the United States and China will put an end to the trade war and buying euros on positive expectations can be replaced by sales given the fact.

Technically, there is a transformation of the Shark pattern at 5-0 on the daily EUR / USD chart. As a rule, kickbacks in the direction of 23.6%, 38.2% and 50% are used to form short positions.

EUR / USD daily chart

BopEjv2-DCTmv1HojMjNPL6_l-HfNQmkfG3DRkdq

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The cost of palladium soared to a historic high

analytics5beea1ed67d16.jpg

According to expert estimates, palladium quotes increased to record levels amid growing industrial demand for this metal.The December palladium futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange reached $ 1137.40 per troy ounce by the close of trading on Thursday, November 15. According to the calculations of FactSet, this figure for this precious metal is the highest since November 1984.According to most experts, increased demand and limited metal supply are considered key factors in the growth of palladium value. According to George Jero, managing director of RBC Wealth Management, the high demand for this metal is recorded in the production of electric vehicles, as well as diesel engines in Europe and China. At the same time, the palladium supply remains lower than expected.

According to Michael Jones, Chief Executive Officer of Platinum Group Metals, the current situation with palladium is affected by the fact that the metal supply on the market demonstrates multidirectional dynamics. He emphasizes that palladium is often a by-product of the production of platinum or nickel, so experts do not expect a rapid increase in supply in response to growing demand.Last month, analysts noted among the reasons for the rally in palladium prices, serious concerns of market participants about US sanctions against Russian companies. In many ways, this was facilitated by the forecasts of Norilsk Nickel, the world's largest producer of this metal. The company announced a further reduction in the production of palladium in the coming year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Growth in Brent quotes above $ 65 is favorable for bulls - experts

analytics5bee96d9a00a8.jpg

According to some analysts, the rise in the price of the standard grade of Brent oil over $ 65 per barrel creates favorable conditions for the bulls of the stock market.On Thursday, November 15, by the end of trading, the US stock exchanges showed a boom. This was facilitated by the statements of the sales representative Robert Lighthizer on the suspension of the introduction of new American duties on goods from the PRC.By the close of the trading session, the S & P 500 broad market index rose by 1.06% to 2730.20 points, the Dow Jones industrial index added 0.83%, and the high-tech NASDAQ increased by 1.72%. On Thursday, the MSCI Emerging Markets index rose 1.5%, showing a maximum increase for the week. Only the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds remained unchanged, amounting to 3.11%.Investors' attention is directed to the attempts of two major powers, China and the United States, to resolve a bilateral trade conflict. On the eve of the G20 summit, the leaders of both states, Xi Jinping and Donald Trump, in a telephone conversation expressed their willingness to remove obstacles hindering a consensus on mutual trade.Another topic of concern to markets was the monetary policy pursued by the US Federal Reserve. The regulator is gradually abandoning incentives, ahead of European and Asian colleagues. The current situation leads investors to realize that the era of cheap money is coming to an end. According to experts, this will contribute to the volatility of the stock markets.Data on stocks from the US Department of Energy, showing a "bearish" trend in the oil market, did not prevent Brent from rising by 0.79% and being at $ 66.68. Currently, a positive factor for the "bulls" is the fact that the price of reference black gold is above $ 65. Thanks to this, conditions are created for further price growth to $ 71– $ 72 per barrel, experts are confident.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Italy's national debt exceeded 2.33 trillion euros and continues to increase

analytics5bee921e7ea53.jpg

According to the Central Bank of Italy, the national debt of the country reached a record value of 2.331 trillion euros in September, an increase of 4.7 billion euros compared with August.The growth of government debt was a result of an increase in expenses of the central state administration and a decrease in the mass of cash in circulation. In addition, the Bank of Italy announced that foreign investors had begun withdrawing their money from the stock market and Italian government securities.The Italian government intends to reduce government debt through accelerated privatization. At the expense of it, it is supposed to increase Italy's GDP by 1%, and not by 0.3%, as it was planned earlier. By 2021, the Italian authorities intend to reduce the national debt of Italy to 126% of GDP.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

A repeat Brexit referendum could send a pound to $ 1.10

analytics5bee883ecd575.jpg

Today, many investors admit that working with the pound has become similar to playing in a casino, all or nothing. According to them, the situation around Brexit is far from complete and to a large extent, depends on the will of the British Parliament."In the event of a second referendum on the UK's withdrawal from the EU, the pound sterling could collapse to $ 1.10, a level that has not been observed since 1985," said Bernd Berg, an analyst at investment company Woodman Asset Management."Even if a second vote again leads to Brexit, it is still unknown if the negotiations will resume after that or will we again return to the agreement that we have now? For the British currency, this will be a period of uncertainty and strong volatility," he added."A vote of no confidence in Theresa May or new elections that will force her to retire can send a pair of GBP / USD to 1.20. However, if the head of the cabinet keeps his post and manages to carry out a "divorce" agreement through the parliament, the pound has every chance of strengthening against the dollar next year," the expert believes."Fundamental indicators speak in favor of the growth of the British currency. If the agreement is approved by the parliament, the pound may rise in price to $ 1.40 or even more by the end of 2019," said B. Berg.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review for the currency pair GBP / USD for November 16, 2018

The price on Thursday, after the UK government approved a plan to leave the EU, made a rally down by testing the support line of 1.2749 (red bold line). There is no strong calendar news on Friday. Most likely, the bulls will once again try to resume the upward movement.Trend analysis (Fig. 1).On Friday, the price will move up, with the first goal of the rolling level of 23.6% - 1.2829 (blue dashed line).

ljYvF6nB-jXuflNe8v0XilwQjKH248MMSXDSKNlL

Fig. 1 (daily schedule).Comprehensive analysis:- Indicator analysis - up;- Fibonacci levels - up;- Volumes - up;- Candlestick analysis - up;- Trend analysis - up;- Bollinger lines - up;- weekly schedule - up.General conclusion:On Friday, the price will move up, with the first goal of the rolling level of 23.6% - 1.2829 (blue dashed line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review for the EUR / USD currency pair for November 16, 201

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).On Friday, it is possible to continue the upward movement with the first goal of the rolling level of 23.6% - 1.1360 (blue dotted line). The second upper target is 1.1388 - 21 average EMA (black thin line).

mFvrz5j2YOd8kx_bODREtnnYEisM27Jy3BP5uA3x

Fig. 1 (daily schedule).Comprehensive analysis:- Indicator analysis - up;- Fibonacci levels - up;- Volumes - up;- Candlestick analysis - strongly down;- Trend analysis - up;- Bollinger lines - up;- Weekly schedule - up.General conclusion:On Friday, it is possible to continue the upward movement with the first goal of the rolling level of 23.6% - 1.1360 (blue dashed line). The second upper target is 1.1388 - 21 average EMA (black thin line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD pair: plan for the US session on November 16. The demand for the pound remains minimal due to the risk of failure

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

The situation has not changed compared with the morning forecast. The upside potential of the pound is still limited by the resistance of 1.2831, hence, it is best to open long positions after breaking through and fixing on this range in order to update the highs of 1.2890 and 1.2960, where I recommend taking profits. In case of a decline, support will be provided by the intermediate area of 1.2761, however, I recommend to open long positions immediately to rebound after testing the minimum of 1.2703 and 1.2663.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

An unsuccessful fixation above resistance of 1.2831 signals to open short positions in order to reduce to the area of first support at 1.2761, the breakdown of which will lead to a larger sale of GBP / USD pair with a test of 1.2703 and 1.2663 minimum, where I recommend to fix profits. In the case of positive news on Brexit, a break of 1.2831 will lead to an increase in the pound. In this scenario, it is best to open short positions to rebound from a maximum of 1.2891 and 1.2962.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading takes place in the 30-day moving average, which limits the upside potential of the pound. With a 50-day average test, you can sell a pound immediately to rebound.

Bollinger bands

In case the pressure on the GBP / USD pair returns, the downward movement for today may be limited by the lower limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.2740.

DSDcNefY6PbiZLALm1Z9e97jNvG0STR5acItpAai

Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD pair: plan for the US session on November 16. Euro buyers run out of steam, and inflation data did not support

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Eurozone inflation data, which came out in the first half of the day, could not support buyers of the European currency as they completely coincided with economists' forecasts, which led to the closure of long positions and a decline in the euro. At the moment, you can only rely on the formation of a false breakdown around the support of 1.1320, where the 50-day moving average is located. Otherwise, long positions can be opened only on a rebound from the 1.1286 low. The main task of buyers for the second half of the day remains the breakdown and consolidation above the resistance of 1.1352, which will lead to new highs around 1.1381 and 1.1410, where I recommend to fix profits.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Another unsuccessful consolidation above the level of 1.1352 led to sales of the European currency, to which I paid attention in my morning review. The main task of the bears in the afternoon is to break down and consolidation below the intermediate support level of 1.1320. A repeated test of which will collapse EUR / USD to a minimum of 1.1286, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of growth above 1.1352, you can count on short positions after updating the maximum of 1.1381 or immediately to the rebound from resistance 1.1410.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the 30- and 50-day average, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

Repeated test of the lower border of the indicator in the area of 1.1315 may lead to an increase in pressure on the euro.

v1cXqzC5HMoGSurD1_Y__GdDdGvYWC0f8UJhWLR_

Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified Wave Analysis. Review of GOLD for the week of November 16

Wave pattern on the H4 chart:

The dominant gold price movement from mid-August is given by the rising wave. Despite its corrective nature for a longer-term trend segment, the current wave is not completed.

Wave pattern on the H1 chart:

The descending wave of October 15 in a larger structure took the place of a full-fledged correction. The structure of the movement seems to be complete but the signals at the end of the wave and the reversal have not yet been observed.

d41kcQl1PsumSU1j0d82Gu2tHzE6Pa2wbFO6cFdf

Wave pattern on the M15 chart:

From November 13, the price forms a new ascending wave, which may be the beginning of a reversal zigzag. In the coming days, there is a high probability of a downward pullback.

ePzkWpJHDzRDtvuPVMm-HC1z88CRWwYPdHJWVehh

Recommended trading strategy:

Despite the continued weakening of the course, the potential for lowering the price of gold is limited. In the coming weeks, the price increase will become dominant. Traders are advised to wait for clearer market entry conditions. Supporters of intraday can make short-term sales, but it is more reasonable to reduce the lot.

Resistance zones:

- 1265.0 / 1260.0

Support areas:

- 1200.0 / 1195.0

Explanations of the figures:

The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). For the analysis, three main TFs are used. On every last part, the incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal.

The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure while the dotted shows the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fractal analysis of major currency pairs for November 16

Dear colleagues.For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, we expect the upward movement to continue after the breakdown of 1.1370. For the currency pair Pound / Dollar, after the abolition of the formation of potential for the top, it returned to the consideration of the downward cycle of November 7. For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, we are following the formation of the downside potential for the bottom of November 13. For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, the descending structure of November 12 is considered as medium-term initial conditions. For the currency pair Euro / Yen, the price forms the potential for the top of November 13 and the range of 129.00 - 129.17 is the key resistance for the top. For the currency pair Pound / Yen, the price canceled the formation of an upward potential, and here we consider the downward cycle of November 8 as the main trend.Forecast for November 16:Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

hb7VEdgVNhpSrpZ2-EN0d20CCtP4QjYk4wH1ElMx

For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1469, 1.1430, 1.1403, 1.1367, 1.1328, 1.1309, 1.1283 and 1.1269. Here, we continue to monitor the ascending structure of November 12. The upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.1367. In this case, the target is 1.1403 and in the range of 1.1403 - 1.1430, we expect a short-term upward movement, as well as price consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.1469, after reaching which we expect consolidation.The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.1328 - 1.1309 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 1.1283. The range of 1.1283 - 1.1269 is the key support for the top. Its breakdown will lead to the development of a downward structure. In this case, the goal is 1.1241.The main trend is the upward structure of November 12.Trading recommendations:Buy 1.1370 Take profit: 1.1400Buy 1.1405 Take profit: 1.1428Sell: 1.1326 Take profit: 1.1311Sell: 1.1307 Take profit: 1.1285

-4mWFeJQaHnMbmXrgSdr-6Ys2J1gzDaonvA9Mlr2

For the Pound / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2966, 1.2928, 1.2878, 1.2843, 1.2729, 1.2691 and 1.2603. Here, after the cancellation of the formation of the upward potential, we continue to follow the development of the downward cycle of November 7. We expect the downward movement to continue after the price passes the range of 1.2729 - 1.2691. In this case, the potential target is 1.2603, upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the top.The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.2843 - 1.2878 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.2928. The range of 1.2928 - 1.2966 is the key support for the downward movement. Before it, we expect the initial conditions for the upward cycle to be formed.The main trend is the downward structure of November 7.Trading recommendations:Buy: 1.2845 Take profit: 1.2876Buy: 1.2880 Take profit: 1.2926Sell: 1.2690 Take profit: 1.2610Sell: Take profit:

O3FmUXSaDW75uLwMKub2RICblKacjEPuoHh8ZzNT

For the Dollar / Franc currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0186, 1.0150, 1.0134, 1.0111, 1.0088, 1.0043, 1.0031, 1.0003, 0.9985 and 0.9959. Here, we continue to follow the formation of the downward structure of November 13. We continue the development of the downward structure after the price passes the range of 1.0043 - 1.0031. In this case, the target is 1.0003 and in the range of 1.0003 - 0.9985 is the short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 0.9959, after reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.0088 - 1.0111 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 1.0134 and in the range of 1.0134 - 1.0150 is the price consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.0186, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.The main trend is the upward cycle of November 7, the formation of the potential for the bottom of November 13.Trading recommendations:Buy: 1.0088 Take profit: 1.0110Buy: 1.0113 Take profit: 1.0132Sell: 1.0030 Take profit: 1.0005Sell: 1.0001 Take profit: 0.9987

_9PTXX6Ky57_Ju48HxMplJJ05ADxNmXcYXuK-AkW

For the Dollar / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the scale are: 113.77, 113.51, 113.35, 113.07, 112.81, 112.64 and 112.21. Here, the price has issued a mid-term downward structure of November 12. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 113.07. In this case, the goal is 112.81 and in the range of 112.81 - 112.64 is the price consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 112.21, the movement to which we expect after the breakdown of 112.60.The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 113.35 - 113.51 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 113.77 and this level is the key support.The main trend: the medium-term descending structure of November 12.Trading recommendations:Buy: 113.35 Take profit: 113.50Buy: 113.55 Take profit: 113.75Sell: 113.05 Take profit: 112.85Sell: 112.80 Take profit: 112.66

kKAobpOI8LI6Ib1bk_ElRfOZ-mGQ7yzsPMuFKsvq

For the Canadian dollar / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3363, 1.3314, 1.3279, 1.3218, 1.3194, 1.3151, 1.3115 and 1.3074. Here, the price forms the potential for a downward trend in the correction zone from the upward pattern on November 7. We expect a short-term upward movement in the range of 1.3194 - 1.3218 and the breakdown of the last value will resume the upward trend. In this case, the target is 1.3279 and in the range of 1.3279 - 1.3314, we expect a short-term upward movement. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a movement to the potential target of 1.3363.The continuation of the development of the downward structure of November 14 is expected after the breakdown of 1.3151. In this case, the target is 1.3115 and consolidation is near this level. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.3074, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.The main trend is a local ascending structure of November 7, the formation of potential for the bottom of November 14.Trading recommendations:Buy: 1.3194 Take profit: 1.3216Buy: 1.3220 Take profit: 1.3275Sell: 1.31548 Take profit: 1.3120Sell: 1.3113 Take profit: 1.3080

r027V7BfgwyVmXRn0ub7P8GI7abh7oWtQ_iP8hCl

For the Australian dollar / dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.7356, 0.7340, 0.7312, 0.7292, 0.7256, 0.7238 and 0.7210. Here, we are following the ascending structure of November 13. The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.7292 - 0.7312 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 0.7340. The potential value for the top is considered to be the level of 0.7356, upon reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.7256 - 0.7238 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.7210 and this level is the key support for the top.The main trend is the ascending structure of November 13.Trading recommendations:Buy: 0.7292 Take profit: 0.7310Buy: 0.7314 Take profit: 0.7340Sell: 0.7255 Take profit: 0.7240Sell: 0.7235 Take profit: 0.7230

8O6A6YGdOONLoh_ZK6dsImbHvM9xSlNwE8zYiYvn

For the Euro / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 129.63, 129.17, 129.00, 128.23, 127.98, 127.22, 126.95 and 126.41. Here, we are following the downward cycle of November 8. At the moment, the price is in deep correction and forms the potential for the top. The passage of the range of 129.00 - 129.17 will lead to the cancellation of the downward structure. In this case, the potential target is 129.63.The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 128.23 - 127.98 and the breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced movement to the level of 127.22. In the range of 127.22 - 126.95 is the short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 126.41.The main trend is the downward cycle of November 8, the stage of deep correction.Trading recommendations:Buy: 129.20 Take profit: 129.60Buy: Take profit:Sell: 128.23 Take profit: 128.00Sell: 127.93 Take profit: 127.30

CgerwpSIJgstN_Ui_kmnqpPJVzGEFt9BzFW7xj7M

For the Pound / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 147.33, 146.43, 145.79, 144.60, 143.41, 142.51 and 141.28. Here, we are following the November 8 downward cycle. The downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 144.60. In this case, the target is 143.41 and in the range of 143.41 - 142.51 is the short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 141.28, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 145.79 - 146.43 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 147.33 and this level is the key support for the downward movement.The main trend is the downward structure of November 8.Trading recommendations:Buy: 145.80 Take profit: 146.40Buy: 146.50 Take profit: 147.30Sell: 144.55 Take profit: 143.45Sell: 143.36 Take profit: 142.60

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified Wave Analysis. Review of EUR / JPY pair for the week of November 16

Wave pattern on the H4 chart:

The general direction of the cross on the short-term trend is set by the rising wave of May 29. The structure of the wave lacks the final part (C).

Wave pattern on the H1 chart:

The bearish wave of September 21 corrected the trend section in a larger wave model. The wave is fully formed and the price has reached the settlement zone of completion.

doJHXB3kaYO23tHohdPE9c7v7u-j4Y756nHSjZ2D

Wave pattern on the M15 chart:

From October 26, a bullish wave is formed, which has a turning potential. Over time, the entire movement will move to a larger scale.

Qq1qs5Kb1pjLlGARgS-HrGeW8XtzNi0ZQIrdxQCq

Recommended trading strategy:

Sales of the pair are unpromising for the near future. The recommendation to track long entry signals for all trading styles remains in effect.

Resistance zones:

- 131.70 / 132.20

- 129.70 / 130.20

Support areas:

- 128.10 / 127.60

Explanations of the figures:

The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). For the analysis, three main TFs are used. On every last part, the incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal.

The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure while the dotted shows the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm doesn't take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To trade a trade transaction, you need to confirm your trading systems!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Europe facing recession

EurozoneThe decline in business activity in the eurozone could not but affect the macroeconomic indicators, which show a significant slowdown in momentum. GDP growth in Q3 at 1.7% year on year and at 0.2% relative to Q2 was the weakest in the last 4 years, with the slowest growth in the eurozone's strongest economy, Germany. On an annualized basis, growth slowed to 1.1% versus 2.3% a quarter earlier, while the immediate quarterly data showed a 0.2% drop, which clearly indicates a threat of recession.The growth in the employment rate is slowing down, the volume of industrial production in September has decreased by 0.3%, stagnation has been observed all last year.

B3eYOVfL1cjcplyXEywzsYExngRXwlV-mifrt6BU

Accordingly, forecasts for the near future are falling, by the end of 2018, GDP is expected to grow 2.0% instead of 2.1%, in 2019 1.8% instead of 1.9%.The main reason for the slowdown in the eurozone is the change in foreign policy conditions, first and foremost, undisguised US pressure. As a measure of coercion, duties were imposed on steel and aluminum, Europe under forced pretexts are being forced to refuse to cooperate with Iran. The undisguised pressure is being exercised in order to force to abandon important infrastructure projects, such as the construction of Nord Stream-2. The Brexit saga leads to uncertainty in trade relations with Great Britain. The front of the Italian government, which does not want to cut the budget expenditures under pressure from Brussels, cannot but affect the deterioration of business prospects.Today, the currency pair EUR / USD has no clear direction and will continue to trade in the range of 1.1310 / 70. At the same time, the long-term trend is still in favor of the dollar, so after an attempt to consolidate, the downward movement may resume.Great BritainThe pound received several rather sensitive blows at once, which contributed to a decrease in the November lows in the region, and at the moment, there is no reason to expect a return of bullish sentiment.The growth of the average wage at the maximum rate for 10 years gave reason to count on the growth of inflation, but the ONS report released on Wednesday showed that in September, inflation remained at the same level of 2.4%, which turned out to be worse than expected. On Thursday, pessimism added a report on retail sales in October, which also turned out to be worse than expected and worse than the September level. Despite the fact that the UK GDP growth in 3 square meters, accelerated, real household incomes are still below pre-crisis levels, and the sustainability of economic growth is still rather fragile.

PvihhjIQT6J4dMT2RZ3d3yTj4cf1nKJokFBdluGy

Weak economic data, however, remain in the background, behind a policy. The threat of leaving Britain from the EU without a full-fledged agreement was synchronously voiced by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, who refer to the Cabinet's current political uncertainty and May's threat to lose the Prime Minister's position, and therefore, the EU is likely that the working paper is only a draft version, which until recently seemed to be a compromise and, on the whole, threatening both sides.All three scenarios, according to which events may develop further, have significant flaws. The current draft is not supported by the majority in parliament, as it threatens in the future the exit of Northern Ireland from the UK. The threat of exit from the EU without an agreement creates a lot of uncertainties, which can lead to a strong exit of capital from the country and slide into recession. Finally, the likelihood of a second referendum and remaining in the EU under the same conditions is blocked by Theresa May, who fulfills the will of the royal family, voiced in 2015.The currency pair GBP / USD will remain under pressure, as the Bank of England is losing ground for another rate increase early next year. Perhaps, there will be an attempt to find a base in the 1.2570 area, however, a decline to 1.2695 and a subsequent attempt to go below this level seems more likely.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR and GBP: Theresa May ruled out a second Brexit referendum. The growth potential of the euro is limited

Theresa May ruled out a second Brexit referendum. The growth potential of the euro is limited. A good US retail sales will support economic growth in the 4th quarter of this year.

The US dollar continued to decline yesterday against the euro, despite the good macroeconomic indicators for the US economy, as well as the positive performance of the head of the Federal Reserve System, Jerome Powell.

In the afternoon, a report came out that showed Americans continue to increase their spending, which is a good sign of a sustainable economy.

Basic data

According to the US Department of Commerce, retail sales increased by 0.8% in October this year compared with $ 511.5 billion in the previous month. In comparison to the same period in 2017, sales increased by 4.6%. Economists had expected a 0.5% increase in sales. Let me remind you that consumer spending provides the main growth of the US economy, accounting for about 2/3 of GDP. Given that the sales season has not yet begun, good October performance could lead to a larger growth in the 4th quarter of the US economy this year.

EU6TjPrMWVF09krjiC_PBgkOXsjncM47wT_E194S

Production activity in the area of responsibility of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has grown but expectations regarding activity in the future have not changed. According to the Fed-New York, the manufacturing index was at 23.3 points in November of this year against 21.1 points in October. A positive index indicates an increase in activity in the sector. Economists predicted that the index will be 20 points.

According to the US Department of Commerce, the inventories of companies in the United States increased by 0.3% to 1.97 trillion US dollars in September. Economists had expected stocks to grow by 0.3% compared with August.

Speech by the Fed chairman did not lead to an increase in the US dollar, although Powell spoke about the positive outlook for the American economy.

The head of the committee said that the US economy is in good shape but it is necessary to closely monitor wage growth, which was not as fast as economists had hoped. Powell is also confident that a good October report on employment in the future will have a positive impact on the growth prospects of the US economy and raising interest rates.

As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, buyers of risky assets for today will once again attempt to break through a large resistance level of 1.1350. A breakthrough of which will open up a real perspective on updating the highs in the 1.1390 and 1.1410 areas. If buyers leave the market, it is fraught with good downward movement with a return to the lower border of the channel in the area of 1.1280.

As for the British pound, the resignation of British ministers yesterday could significantly affect the plans of the Bank of England, which needs to rethink its policy of raising the key rate. It is possible that the Central Bank will take a cautious stance and abandon the expected tightening of monetary policy by the market.

Yesterday afternoon, British Prime Minister Theresa May once again stated that her approach was based on national interests being paramount, adding that the course she outlined in the Brexit agreement was right for the country. It is her script that protects the rights of the British, and nothing else. If Ireland does not provide support, an agreement with the EU without it is impossible. At the end of the speech, Theresa May made it clear that there would be no second Brexit referendum.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of GBP / USD for November 16. Ghostly hopes for the growth of the pair remain

analytics5bee77137ac74.png

Wave counting analysis:During the November 15 trading session, the GBP / USD currency pair lost about 220 basis points, thanks to the negative news background. Thus, the estimated wave b has assumed a three-wave form, however, the probability that the formation of the upward wave c is low. The news background in the form of news from the Parliament of Great Britain does not allow counting on the growth of the pound sterling. Thus, it is necessary to wait for either a fundamental change in the news background or to consider options with the complication of the downward trend section.The objectives for the option with purchases:1.3175 - 0.0% of FibonacciThe objectives for the option with sales:1.2695 - 100.0% of Fibonacci1.2637 - 261.8% of Fibonacci (senior grid)General conclusions and trading recommendations:The GBP / USD currency pair remains in the process of building an upward set of waves, but the wave marking, if successfully attempted to break through the 100.0% of the Fibonacci level, will require clarification. So far, there is still hope for an upward wave c targets located near the estimated level of 1.3175. The news background is not in favor of the pound, which can lead to a complication of the downward trend.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of EUR / USD for November 16. Possible complication of the downward structure

analytics5bee76e05fd6d.png

Wave counting analysis:In the course of trading on Thursday, the EUR / USD currency pair added another 20 basis points more and thus continues the construction of the proposed first wave of a new uptrend trend. If this assumption is true, then the increase in quotations will continue with targets located around 14 and 15 figures. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the level of 23.6% on the older Fibonacci grid could throw the pair down and even lead to the complication of the downward trend, starting from September 24.The objectives for the option with sales:1.1215 - 0.0% of FibonacciThe objectives for the option with purchases:1.1356 - 23.6% of Fibonacci (senior grid)1.1390 - 61.8% of Fibonacci1.1432 - 76.4% of FibonacciGeneral conclusions and trading recommendations:The currency pair allegedly completed the construction of the downward trend. Thus, now I still recommend buying the pair in small volumes with targets located at estimated levels of 1.1356, 1.1390 and 1.1432. An unsuccessful attempt to break through 1.1356 may lead to a resumption of the construction of a downward trend. But it's still early to return to sales.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Review of the foreign exchange market on 11/16/2018

"The divorce agreement" between the UK and the European Union has not yet been submitted to parliament, there is clearly not up to it. After all, the Minister of Affairs for Brexit, as well as the Minister of Labor, resigned because of her disagreement with the version of the agreement that Theresa May intends to hold. So, the possibility of a vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister is becoming increasingly real. The European Union itself will only consider accepting the agreement reached on November 25. As Donald Tusk made a reservation, unless something extraordinary happens. Apparently, Theresa May's resignation and the blocking of the agreement by the British Parliament is just such an option. It is curious that only the pound has suffered from all this, while the single European currency has slightly improved its position against the dollar. This clearly demonstrates that leaving the UK from the European Union without any agreement harms only the United Kingdom itself. Europe can benefit from this. The actions of the British parliamentarians, who have decided by disclosing a decision to discredit Theresa May and earn more political points, trivially lead the UK to an economic disaster. Although it is obvious that Theresa May will be appointed the guilty party anyway.

S1ajdiJU9AYvV9muXUEDLf1mLYrpSa6xSTIlPRtw

If we ignore the political scandals, we can see that things are already not going well in Great Britain. Retail sales growth slowed from 3.3% to 2.2%. Do not forget that inflation has remained unchanged, so that the profit of investors is reduced. But in the US, the growth rate of retail sales accelerated from 4.2% to 4.6%, but this did not allow the dollar to strengthen its position against the single European currency, as the euro grew due to problems in the UK. Many understand that if the UK withdraws from the European Union without any agreement, a number of European countries will be able to take its place on the pan-European market.Today, in the USA, industrial production data are coming out, which should show both an acceleration of growth rates and an increase in production capacity utilization. Of course, this is not the most significant indicator for the market, but all the same, the forecasts are quite optimistic.In Europe, the final inflation data is released, which should confirm that it has grown from 2.1% to 2.2%. The rise in inflation will again make everyone believe that the ECB will, however, curtail the program of quantitative easing and start raising the refinancing rate from the middle of next year. True, partly the growth of inflation has already been taken into account by the market after the publication of preliminary data, so one should not expect a special reaction today. Although news from Albion can contribute to the development of events. Political factors are extremely difficult to predict, and if you look at macroeconomics, then you should wait for the decline of the single European currency to 1.1325. Indeed, in the United States, there are factual data, and in Europe only confirmation of what is already known to all.

vVkvU-60IjEi9OMFLDMJEPs8YsEKzEtTPrLYk4Pj

With the pound, everything is extremely difficult. If you rely on statistics, then the pound should continue to decline. It is not clear how events will develop in the UK. Common sense dictates that British politicians should take a pause and think things through. Their behavior lately has shown that they have temporarily said goodbye to common sense, sensing the taste of blood and the prospect of strengthening their political positions. Albeit at the expense of Britain itself. So you can wait for anything. If tensions continue to rise, the pound will drop to 1.2775. If dear gentlemen prove prudent, informational silence will allow the pound to grow to 1.2875.

Lnnf8Hvg--zu6um4SyBvFC-PM-PACS91zi872pC0

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of the divergence of EUR / USD for November 16. Euro currency will continue to recover

4h

analytics5bee6d05c27cf.png

The EUR / USD currency pair consolidated above the correctional Fibo level of 100.0% - 1.1303. Thus, on November 16, the growth process can be continued in the direction of the next correction level of 76.4% - 1.1423. There is no maturing divergence in any indicator. Fixing quotes under the Fibo level of 100.0% will allow traders to expect a resumption of the fall in the direction of the correction level of 127.2% - 1.1162.The Fibo grid is built on extremes from August 15, 2018, and September 24, 2018.Daily

zr6YkquexHQ8TzLqWteQvD1td74TfIxTIEabe4bR

On the 24-hour chart, the EUR / USD currency pair also made a U-turn in favor of the euro and consolidation above the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1285. As a result, the growth process is expected in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1553. There are no ripening divergences on the current chart. Fixing the rate of the pair below the Fibo level of 127.2% can be interpreted as a reversal in favor of the EU currency and expect a slight decline in the direction of the correction level of 161.8% - 1.0941.The Fibo grid is built on extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.Recommendations to traders:Purchases of the EUR / USD currency pair can be made now with a target of 1.1423 and a Stop Loss order below the Fibo level of 100.0% since the pair completed the closing above the 1.1303 level.Selling of the EUR / USD currency pair will be possible with the target of 1.1162 with a Stop Loss order above the Fibo level of 100.0% if the pair closes below the correction level of 1.1303.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of the GBP / USD Divergences for November 16. New pound sterling drop

4h

analytics5bee6ccf9f541.png

On the 4-hour chart, the GBP / USD currency pair made a sharp reversal in favor of the American currency and the closure under the Fibo level of 76.4% - 1.2812 on the new Fibonacci grid. Thus, today the fall in quotations can be continued in the direction of the next correction level of 100.0% - 1.2662. Rebounding quotes from the Fibo level of 100.0% will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the British currency and some growth. Closing the pair above the correction level of 76.4% will similarly work in favor of the beginning of the pair's growth.The Fibo grid was built according to extremums of August 15, 2018, and September 20, 2018.1h

LHIVW5d5WBpEtbUTjPDPvzeITs5lU-30tjb1o0-G

On the hourly chart, the currency pair performed a strong fall and returned to the correctional level of 76.4% - 1.2809. The ripening divergences on November 16 are not observed in any indicator. Rebounding the pair's rate from the Fibo level of 76.4% will make it possible to expect a reversal in favor of the US currency and a resumption of fall in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% - 1.2696. Closing quotations above the Fibo level of 76.4% will make it possible to expect continued growth in the direction of the next correction level of 61.8% - 1.2878.The Fib net is built on extremes from October 30, 2018, and November 7, 2018.Recommendations to traders:Purchases of the GBP / USD currency pair can be made with the target of 1.2878 and a Stop Loss order under the correction level of 76.4% if the pair closes above 1.2809 (hourly chart).Selling of the currency pair GBP / USD will be possible with the goal of 1.2696 and a Stop Loss order above the level of 76.4% if the pair bounces off the level of 1.2809 (hourly chart).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD. November 16th. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Escape from a sinking ship

4-hour timeframe

analytics5bee6cbfe34c2.png

Technical details:The senior linear regression channel: direction - sideways.The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.CCI: -100.6090The currency pair GBP / USD on Friday, November 16, is trying to start a correction against a strong downward movement the day before. The new fall of the pound sterling was provoked by two more resignations in the British Parliament. Earlier, we wrote about the resignation in protest against the policy of Theresa May, Dominic Raab, Minister for Brexit. Following him, a letter of dismissal was written by the Minister for Northern Ireland, Shailesh Vara. All this looks like a flight from a sinking ship. Immediately four ministers did not want to be involved in the version of Brexit, which Teresa May strongly promotes. May herself said at a press conference that she was not afraid of a possible resignation and she intends to finish the job (Brexit). Thus, if a week ago, traders were overwhelmed with optimism, since there was hope for an early conclusion of the "deal" and the completion of the whole epic called Brexit, now a situation arises that is unknown how this will end. Ahead of the parliament to vote for the bill May. Not the fact that it will be accepted. Not the fact that in the near future, May will not be dismissed. For pound sterling, this does not bode well. A new round of political crisis will put pressure on the British currency. On the last trading day of the week, there are no important scheduled macroeconomic reports in the UK or in the States.Nearest support levels:S1 - 1,2756S2 - 1.2695S3 - 1.2634Nearest resistance levels:R1 - 1.2817R2 - 1.2878R3 - 1.2939Trading recommendations:The currency pair GBP / USD resumed its downtrend. Thus, a correction is now possible, as indicated by Heikin Ashi, after which it will be possible to resume trading for a fall with the target Murray levels of 1.2756 and 1.2695.Buy orders are recommended to be considered only above the moving average line with the target of 1.3062. However, as before, there are no fundamental reasons to expect a strong strengthening of the British currency.In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.Explanations for illustrations:The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.The junior linear channel is the purple lines of unidirectional movement.CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. November 16th. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Euro currency: there are very few forces to strengthen

4-hour timeframe

E5S8RdR_liebroZRz1MLktTYvcTvcsmBk1h8cvQC

Technical details:The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.The younger linear regression channel: direction - down.Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.CCI: 99.6272The EUR / USD currency pair on Friday, November 16, continued a very weak upward movement and with great difficulty overcame the moving average line. Formally, the trend in the instrument has changed to ascending, however, there is a high probability of a false breakdown of the MA. Thus, only overcoming the Murray level of "2/8" will allow more or less confident to talk about the prospects of the euro. However, we also note that no market reaction followed the speech of Jerome Powell, who said that the Fed's key rate will increase gradually and further that he is very pleased with the state of the American economy. Either the traders simply missed this speech, or they thought it was uninteresting. In principle, the fact that the Fed will continue to tighten monetary policy was clear without Powell's speech. On the last trading day of the week in the eurozone, consumer price index for October will be published. It is expected that inflation will be 2.2%. Any value below the forecast can confirm our concerns about the false breakdown of the MA. In the States today, important macroeconomic reports are not planned. The Brexit theme has recently affected the UK more, so there was no reaction to the resignation in the British Parliament on the euro/dollar pair.Nearest support levels:S1 - 1,1292S2 - 1.1230S3 - 1.1169Nearest resistance levels:R1 - 1.1353R2 - 1.1414R3 - 1.1475Trading recommendations:The EUR / USD currency pair continues to be adjusted, the MA may be broken. To be able to open long positions, it is recommended to wait for the price to fix above the level of 1.1353. In this case, it will be possible to trade in small lots for an increase with the target of 1.1414.Sell positions will become relevant only after the pair is fixed back below the MA, which is very likely in the near future. In this case, short positions can be opened with the target of 1.1230.In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.Explanations for illustrations:The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.The junior linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.CCI - blue line in the indicator window.The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for November 16, 2018

analytics5beead10d88b9.png

Trading recommendations:

According to the H1 time - frame, I found that BTC is in consolidation phase after the strong drop in the background, which is normal activity after such a strong drop1. I dont see any signs of reversal yet and my advice is to watch for selling opportunities. I have also found potential end of the upward correction (rrunning flat), which is another sign of weakness. Downward take profit level is set at the price of $5.161.

Support/Resistance

$5.692 – Intraday resistance

$5.377– Intraday support

$5.161 – Objective target

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The fall of sterling may continue

Britain's inability to "worthily" get out of the EU has already begun to turn into chaos. The retirement of the three cabinet ministers, T. May, among whom, in fact, is also the minister himself of Brexit, faces grave consequences for Britain.

The news of the resignation of the Minister of Affairs of Brexit D. Raab collapsed course of sterling, which at the moment, fell by almost three figures and remains under pressure. Observing the development of the situation, we can assume that against the background of the slowdown in the growth of the national economy, as well as slowing inflation and, most importantly, a high probability that Brexit will be "tough" for the UK. The British currency may fall in tandem with the US dollar to 2016 low of the year.Following Thursday's results, the US dollar continued its steady decline against major currencies. In our opinion, this was not due to the strengthening of the weakness, but, most likely, in line with the fixation of previously received profits. This happened despite the continuing signals of increased inflationary pressure in the US and a tough position of the Fed aimed at continuing the interest rate increase cycle, which the Fed Chairman J. Powell said in his comment this week.Also clearly a plus for the dollar rate are the data on retail sales and the price index on exports and imports published on Thursday. According to economic statistics, the core retail sales index jumped 0.7% in October against a 0.1% decline in September and expectations for a 0.5% increase. The export price index jumped 0.4% from a month earlier, down 0.2% and a 0.1% growth forecast. A similar picture is observed in the dynamics of the import price index, which rose by 0.5% against a 0.2% increase in September and expectations for a 0.1% increase.The values of these indicators "pour" water on the inflation mill, confirming the fact of its strengthening. Of course, in this case, the Fed will confidently raise rates and continue to reduce its balance sheet, which will be a strong supporting basis for the growth of the dollar in the near future.Forecast of the day:The currency pair AUD / USD is trading below the level of 0.7300. Local growth of the pair may stop if it does not overcome this mark. In this case, the pair may remain until the G20 summit in the range of 0.7190-0.7300, dropping to its lower boundary.The USD / JPY currency pair is trading above the level of 112.30 while remaining in the short-term uptrend. The pair may continue to decline to 112.60 in the wake of rising tensions in the markets after overcoming the level of 113.30.

xNY5RYDI0mi6kH_t0KclctVSeYp9WmGamLCNnJ8T

cYvaOccdvMi11vfaUx0Iv--XQRJB_RficIRkVAMg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of Gold for November 16, 2018

analytics5beea987e9911.png

Recently, Gold has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $1,217.89. Anyway, according to the H1 time – frame, I found a potential bearish flag pattern in creation, which is a sign that buying looks risky. A pace of delcine is slow and my advice is to watch for a potential breakout of the bearish flag to confirm further downward continuation. The downward targets are set at the price of $1,207.50 and at the price of $1,197.80.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD analysis for November 16, 2018

analytics5beea7c5412c5.png

Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading sideways at the price of 1.1325. Anyway, according to the H1 time – frame, I found a fake breakout of the yesterday's high at the price of 1.1363, which is a sign that buyers got trapped. I also found a breakout of the support trendline and a hidden bearish divergence on the MACD oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.1270 and at the price of 1.12015.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for November 16, 2018

analytics5bee96906b3eb.png

On September 21, the GBP/USD failed to demonstrate sufficient bullish momentum above 1.3296. The short-term outlook turned to become bearish to test the backside of the broken uptrend.

On H4 chart, the GBP/USD pair looked oversold around the price levels of 1.2700 where profitable BUY entries were suggested.

A Quick bullish movement was demonstrated towards the price level of 1.3170-1.3200 where the depicted downtrend came to meet the GBP/USD pair.

Last week, signs of bearish rejection were demonstrated around the price zone of 1.3170-1.3200 (the depicted downtrend).

This initiated the current bearish pullback towards the depicted demand-zone of (1.2850-1.2780) where early signs of bullish rejection were recently demonstrated.

Earlier this week, the GBP/USD pair failed to establish a successful bullish breakout above the price level of 1.2980 (key-level for the short-term scenario). That's why, a quick bearish decline was demonstrated towards the price level of 1.2780.

Bullish persistence above the price zone of 1.2850-1.2780 (demand-zone) is needed to prevent further bearish decline and to allow another bullish movement to occur towards 1.2980.

On the other hand, bearish persistence below 1.2780 allows a further decline towards 1.2700 and 1.2670.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for November 16, 2018

analytics5bee94c6c183f.png

Overview:

Pivot point: 1.3072.

The GBP/USD pair broke resistance, which turned into strong support at 1.2925. Right now, the pair is trading above this level. It is likely to trade in a higher range as long as it remains above the support (1.2925), which is expected to act as a major support today. Therefore, there is a possibility that the GBP/USD pair will move upwards and the structure does not look corrective. The trend is still below the 100 EMA, so the bullish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the upside. From this point of view, the first resistance level is seen at 1.3072 followed by 1.3176, while daily support 1 is seen at 1.3000 (50% Fibonacci retracement). According to the previous events, the GBP/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.3000 and 1.3176; so we expect a range of 176 pips. Consequently, buy above the level of 1.3000 with the first target at 1.3072 so as to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 1.3176. Besides, the level of 1.3176 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top. On the contrary, in case a reversal takes place and the GBP/USD pair breaks through the support level of 1.3000, a further decline to 1.2925 can occur, which would indicate a bearish market. Overall, we still prefer the bullish scenario, which suggests that the pair will stay below the zone of 1.2840.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for November 16, 2018

analytics5bee945f09f48.png

On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair is demonstrating a high-probability Head and Shoulders reversal pattern where the right shoulder is currently in progress.

Recently, Temporary bullish recovery was demonstrated around 1.1300. Hence, another bullish pullback was executed towards 1.1499 (the upper limit of the supply zone) where another descending high was established.

As for the bearish side of the market to remain dominant, the EUR/USD pair should continue trading below the price zone of 1.1300-1.1275. Initial bearish target would located around 1.1100.

Bearish persistence below 1.1275 is mandatory to allow a further decline towards 1.1100.

However, early signs of bullish recovery were demonstrated around 1.1275. This would enhance the bullish side of the market towards 1.1400 again.

Thus, the EUR/USD pair remains trapped within a narrow price range (1.1275-1.1400) until a breakout occurs in either directions.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for November 16, 2018

analytics5bee90a31c50f.png

Overview:

The EUR/USD pair dropped from the level of 1.1467 to the bottom around 1.1215. But the pair rebounded from the bottom of 1.1215 to close at 1.1347. Probably; historic will repeats itself again. Today, the first support level is seen at 1.1215, and the price is moving in a bearish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set below the strong resistance at the level of 1.1312, which coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. This resistance has been rejected several times confirming the downtrend. Additionally, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend. As a result, if the EUR/USD pair is able to break out the first support at 1.1215 , the market will decline further to 1.1134 in order to test the weekly support 2. In the H4 time frame, the pair will probably go down because the downtrend is still strong. Consequently, the market is likely to show signs of a bearish trend. So, it will be good to sell below the level of 1.1215 with the first target at 1.1170 and further to 1.1134. At the same time, the breakdown of 1.1312 will allow the pair to go further up to the levels of 1.1467 in order to retest the major resistance.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of EUR/GBP for November 16, 2018

EUR/GBP pushed higher impulsively amid strong bullish pressure recently inside correction at the edge of 0.87 price area for a few days in a row. The recent Brexit developments, including unexpected resignation of the key Brexit officials, dealt a blow to GBP. At the same time, EUR gained momentum.

Ahead of ECB President Draghi's speech today, EUR has chances to extend its momentum in the coming days. Though EUR found support from recently published economic reports, there are still certain shortcomings for the eurozone's economy because of the bank stress test which needs fixing. Today the eurozone's final CPI report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 2.2% from the previous value of 2.1%, Final Core CPI is expected to be unchanged at 1.1%, Italian Trade Balance is expected to increase to 2.87B from the previous figure of 2.56B, and German Buba President Weidmann is going to speak about the eurozone's key interest rate and future monetary policies.

On the other hand, GBP is vulnerable to Brexit issues. GBP is expected to extend its losses further in short term. Judging by the current economic situation in the UK, the Bnak of England is unlikely to raise interest rates in 2019 as recently UK Brexit minister Dominic Raab stepped down. Moreover, GBP is also weighed down by escalating tensions in the UK government.

Meanwhile, EUR has been quite positive and optimistic with the economic reports while GBP has been hurt by the Brexit deadlock. Taking advantage of GBP weakness, EUR is expected to extend its gains in the process.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing above 0.8850 area with a daily close, which is expected to lead to further bullish pressure in the coming days. The price has recently formed Bullish Divergence as well which is also expected to support the upcoming bullish pressures. As the price remains above 0.8700 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue with target towards 0.8950-0.90950 resistance area.

SUPPORT: 0.8700, 0.8850

RESISTANCE: 0.8950, 0.9050

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

analytics5bee50853feeb.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of NZD/USD for November 16, 2018

NZD/USD has been non-volatile and quite impulsive with recent bullish gains which has lead the price towards 0.6850 area. Despite the disapponting economic results, NZD managed to gain sustainable momentum over USD which is expected to be countered in the coming days.

Recently New Zealand FPI report was published with a decrease to -0.6% from the previous value of -0.1% which did not have the impact on the NZD buyers. Thus, the bulls are intruding with greater impulsiveness throughout the week. Today Business NZ Manufacturing Index report was published with an increase to 53.5 from the previous figure of 51.9 which had the opposite response from the market that made NZD lose some grounds currently.

On the USD side, recently CPI report was published with an increase to 0.3% as expected from the previous value of 0.1% and Retail Sales also showed a significant increase to 0.8% from the previous value of -0.1% which was expected to be at 0.6%. Overall, USD has been showing strong performance throughout the week thanks to the upbeat economic reports which indicates certain gains on the USD side in the coming days. Moreover, recently FED Chairman Powell spoke about the achieving the goal of maximum employment and an inflation target of 2% which encouraged further growth of USD. Today US Capacity Utilization Rate report is going to be published which is expected to have a slight increase to 78.3% from the previous value of 78.1% and Industrial Production is expected to decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.3%.

Meanwhile, though NZD has been going quite strong against USD earlier, USD is expected to gain good momentum over NZD in the coming days. Until NZD comes up with better economic reports to back up its gains so far, USD maintains momentum for a while.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently quite bearish below 0.6850 area while forming certain Bearish Divergence in the process. Currently the price is expected to push lower towards 0.6720 support area where the dynamic level of 20 EMA resides. As the price remains below 0.6850 area, there are certain chances of bearish pressure in the coming days with target towards 0.6720 area from where continuation of the bullish trend is expected in the future.

SUPPORT: 0.6600, 0.6720

RESISTANCE: 0.6850, 0.70

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: NON-VOLATILE

analytics5bee40d5c5446.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan 16.11.2018

Trading Plan 11/16/2018

The big picture: Brexit confuses cards over and over again.

The endless English saga around the Brexit agreement continues, and there is no end to this disgrace.

Resignations in the government, possible vote of a vote of confidence, possible resignation of May, and so on and so forth.

It is necessary to understand however: the exit of Britain from the EU will take place - with or without an agreement.

In a big sense, not much will change. Britain will not collapse, the EU will not fall apart.

By and large. It's all exaggerated.

We are ready to buy the pound from 1.3075.

G9n1P5poPaSW_SUh2aXI4wKBoJuT-PxZStExlHhn

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Burning forecast 16.11.2018

Burning forecast 16.11.2018

EURUSD: We trade for a breakthrough.

And again there is a level to enter the top of the breakthrough.

The euro is moving up over and over again, despite the resistance of sellers

We are ready to buy from 1.1365, stop 1.1320, the purpose of 1.1700.

Alternative: Sell from 1.1214.

MIMZpOEOhY6w5eHq3I6qKezlGUq0nApdT7aR1Xoq

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for 16/11/2018

GBP / USD climbed over 1.28 from Thursday's lows at 1.2720 after dropping by 3 figures. Opponents of Prime Minister May and her draft Brexit agreement have not yet collected 48 votes for the motion of censure. The rest of the currency market remains calm without a specific tone. The weakest is USD, and the leading ones are JPY and NOK, although the spread is small.

Initial optimism from the truce between the US and China raised Wall Street and the SP500 ended the day with an increase of 1.06%. But markets in Asia have already clashed with dementia and the nature of trade is ambiguous. In China, Shanghai Composite is growing 0.4%, but the Japanese Nikkei225 lost 0.57%.

On Friday, the 16th of November, the event calendar is light in important data releases, but the global investors should keep an eye on Wholesale Price Index data from Germany, Consumer Price Index data from the EU, Foreign Securities Purchases and Manufacturing Shipments data form Canada and Industrial Production data from the US. There are some speeches from ECB President Mario Draghi and ECB's Jens Weidmann scheduled for today as well.

EUR/USD analysis for 16/11/2018:

One of the American officials said that the chances of a breakthrough in the issue of trade during the next G20 meeting are unlikely. For now, it is too early to assess whether China's response to US demands will lead to the suspension of tariffs to be introduced in January. The proposals offered by China should be assessed with a great deal of skepticism.

The American Trade Representative Lighthizer stated that he did not mention to corporate managers that the next tranche of Chinese tariffs was halted. In the meantime, the first talks between the two largest economies in the world began. The financial media reached the sources of some concessions from China, but they have not been confirmed. There is a long way to go until the end of the trade war.

Let's then take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is still consolidating around the technical resistance zone between the levels of 1.1335 - 1.1359 as the bulls are trying to break out through it. The momentum is positive, but not that strong, so it might take a little more time to complete the move upward. In the case of a fruitfull breakout, the next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.1432. On the other hand, the nearest technical support is seen at the level of 1.1301 and 1.1285.

analytics5bee6f63700dc.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com