EUR/NZD analysis for November 06, 2014

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Overview:


In our last analysis, EUR/NZD has been trading downwards. As we expected, the price tested and rejected from the level of 1.6268 in a high volume. Our Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of 1.6250 held successfully, which is a sign that buying looks risky. According to the 1H time frame, we can observe absorption volume in the background, which is a sign that buying EUR/NZD looks risky. I have placed Fibonacci retracment to find potential support levels and I got Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1.6075 (currently on the test). If the price breaks the level of 1.6075 in a high volume and strong price action takes place, we may see possible testing the level of 1.6005 (swing low like support).


Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.6204


R2: 1.6254


R3: 1.6335


Support levels:


S1: 1.6041


S2: 1.5991


S3: 1.5909


Trading recommendations: Be careful when buyingEUR/NZD pair since we got successful rejection from our Fibonacci expansion 100%


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Gold : analysis for November 06, 2014

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Overview :


Since our last analysis, gold has been trading sideways around the price of 1,143.00. We are waiting for a larger volume and stronger price action. Our major Fibonacci expansion 161.8% at the price of 1,146.00 is on the test, so be very careful when selling gold at this stage. According to the 4H time frame, we got lack of supply around the price of 1,145.00 (high churn volume), which is a sign that selling gold at this stage looks risky. Be careful when selling gold and watch for potential buying opportunities. Any larger reaction from buyers may confirm a futher bullish phase. Anyway, if the price breaks the level of 1,146.00 in a high volume and strong price action, we may see possible testing the level of 1,035.00 (swing high like support).


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1:1,163.00


R2: 1,170.60


R3: 1,182.90


Support levels:


S1: 1,138.40


S2: 1,130.80


S3: 1,118.50


Trading recommendations: Selling gold at this stage looks risky since price is near our support level


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for November 6, 2014

General overview for 06/11/2014 12:30 CET:


The clear bearish divergence between the price and momentum oscillator is starting to get more influence on price behavior. The downward price development can not be ruled out yet and any violation of the level of 1.1338 invalidates current impulsive wave progression. In that case, the level of 1.1466 will be the top for wave (i) green and the corrective cycle might retrace even to the level of 1.1262 before the uptrend will eventually resume.


Support/Resistance:


1.1466 - Swing High


1.1462 - WR2


1.1380 - WR1


1.1368 - Intraday Support


1.1338 - Wave (ii) Green Bottom


Trading recommendations:


The advised TP level has been hit ( and broken) and now day traders and swing traders should wait for the corrective cycle to complete before opening buy positions again.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for November 6, 2014

General overview for 06/11/2014 12:10 CET:


The corrective cycles anticipated yesterday hasn't been that deep as anticipated so small change in labeling has been made. The top for wave 3 blue has been established at the level of 144.22 and now corrective cycle is due. This point of view is being supported by multi-timeframe bearish divergence that is clearly visible on hourly RSI chart. The other thing that supports the corrective case is the daily time frame supply zone that has just been hit. The fist indication of a corrective cycle development is intraday support breakout at the level of 142.54.


Support/Resistance:


144.90 - WR2


144.22 - Swing High


143.67 - WR1


142.54 - Intraday Support


Trading recommendations:


The advised TP level has been hit (and broken). So not all day traders should refrain from trading before a main fundamental event (ECB news release) and all swing traders should move the SL just below the level of 142.98.


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for November 6, 2014

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Trading recommendations :



  • The NZD/USD pair is still between the levels of 0.7786 and 0.7696. It should be noted that the market will continue its bearish sentiment from the level of 0.7804. Also, be aware that the level of 0.7804 will act as strong resistance today. Then, history will repeat itself again. So, the descending movement will probably be lower than the 0.7786/0.77804 levels with the first target at 0.7703, then the trend will form a double bottom at the price of 0.7668. In the short term, buy deals are recommended above 0.7668 with the target at the level of 0.7703 (correction).


Intraday technical levels :


Date and Time:6/11/2014 12:29


Pair:NZD/USD



  • Projected high:0.8079

  • Breakout (buy stop):0.8024

  • Strong Resistance (sell limit):0.7994

  • Current pivot:0.7762

  • Strong support (buy limit):0.7529

  • Breakout (sell stop):0.7504

  • Projected low:0.7454


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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for November 6, 2014

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Trading recommendations :



  • The GBP/USD pair has still moved between the area of 1.5990 and 1.5897. It should notice that the levels of 1.5897 and 1.5868 represent the weekly support 1 and the double bottom respectively in H1 chart. So, resistance had set at the levels of 1.5988 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels). Therefore, sell below the level of 1.5988 with the first target at the 1.5900 price, then It will call for a downtrend in order to continue its bearish movement towards 1.5868 in order to test the double bottom. At the same time, the stop loss should be placed at the level of 1.6039 (above the weekly pivot point). On the other hand, the support will set around the spot of 1.5800; then buy above 1.58 (if the trend fails to close below it) with a target at 1.5866 in coming days.


Observations :



  • The resistance will set at the level of 1.5988 today.

  • The double top is going to set at the 1.5868 price.

  • The area of 1.5988 is useful spot to sell in the long term.

  • We expect a range of 87 pips on November 6, 2014.

  • It should be noted that if there is no significant news to influence, the market price will be moving from pivot point to resistance 1 or support 1. But if there is significant news to influence, the market price may go straight through resistance 1 or support 1 and reaches resistance 2 or support 2 and even resistance 3 or support 3.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for November 6 - 2014

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Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 1.6263


R2: 1.6193


R1: 1.6169


Current spot: 1.6151


S1: 1.6120


S2: 1.6096


S3: 1.6072


Technical summary:


Nothing really changed here. We have seen a new rally to 1.6263, which again was rejected for a new move lower. The picture is still very complicated, without any real signs of, which direction that should be favored. We do slightly prefer the upside, but we will await a more clear picture, as a break below support at 1.5999 will shift focus towards the expanding diagonal pattern.


Trading recommendation:


We will continue to stay on the sideline for now and await a more clear picture.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 6 - 2014

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Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 144.22


R2: 143.85


R1: 143.50


Current spot: 143.26


S1: 142.85


S2: 142.53


S1: 141.70


Technical summary:


Red wave iii moved directly higher to 144.22 and we should now see red wave iv correct lower to 141.70 before red wave v move higher to 146.15 to end wave iii. Short term we are looking for resistance at 142.50 for a break below support at 142.85 that confirms the decline in red wave iv towards 141.70 before higher again.


Trading recommendation:


Our stop at 143.00 was hit for a nice little profit. We will buy EUR again at 142.00 with a stop at 140.30.


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#USDX Technical analysis for November 6, 2014

The Dollar index made another new higher high yesterday and remains in the up trend. The bullish flag is working as expected and my longer-term target of 91 remains possible. The short-term trend however is looking a bit tired and we could see a pullback before moving upwards again.


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The Dollar index is testing the tenkan-sen support at 87.25. A 4-hour close below that level will push the index towards 87. Next support if 87 is broken is the 86.50 level where the Ichimoku cloud is found. Currently, the short-term trend is bullish, supported but fragile. Bulls need to be very cautious as we could start a deeper pull back towards 86.


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On a weekly basis the Dollar index remains fully bullish in ichimoku cloud terms. Strong support is at 85.60 and I believe if we are supposed to make a deep pull back, then this is the level we are going to see. The longer-term trend remains bullish and the bullish flag has target of 91. I continue to believe we can achieve that level and even better.


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Gold Technical analysis for November 6, 2014

Gold price after reaching our short-term target of $1,140-$1,135 is making a sideways consolidation similar to the one we saw a few days ago around $1,160-70. The trend remains bearish and I expect to see $1,110 if support at $1,135 is broken.


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Gold is forming a bearish flag and remains below the Ichimoku cloud resistance. Breaking below $1,135 will give us anoter sell signal with $1,110-$1,105 target. Bears however should not get overexcited because I believe we are in the final stages of the decline that started at $1,255. Stops should be tight as a bounce towards $1,180 cannot be rulled out.


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The trend remains bearish. All ichimoku cloud indicators point lower. A bounce towards $1,170 is very possible, however this should not worry longer-term bears. A bounce towards $1,170-$1,180 on the other hand is something we want in order to move away from the oversold levels in several indicators. This upward bounce should be seen as another opportunity to sell again. Until then, we need to wait and see if the short-term bearish flag will reach our target if $1,135 is broken.


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Intraday trading recommendations on EUR/JPY for November 06, 2014

Traders eye today's major event - the ECB press conference. This time we are not expecting further easing in the EU. In case, if the same thing happens, the Euro will recover against the Yen. Today traders eye the BOJ monetary policy meeting minutes. EUR/JPY has been trading on a highly bullish note for 4 weeks. The cross edges higher for the 6th consecutive day. The cross has parallel resistance between 143.44 and 143.78. In yesterday's session the pair exactly touched the 143.44 levels aiming for 143.78. We can expect strong momentum only above 143.78 levels. In the weekly and monthly charts the cross gave an upside breakout. As of now, today the cross is trading at 143.19 levels. After a huge spike, the prices are corrected well and again moving higher levels. We expect the prices will move again towards 143.40 and 143.50 levels, maybe even 143.70 levels. We recommend speculative buying at a market price of 143.15. The pair will face selling pressure below 143.00 levels. This recommendation involves high risk. The intraday support exists at 143.20, below this, 142.80 levels. Ahead of the major event, we expect high volatility in intraday session. Strong rising looms above 143.78 on a weekly closing basis. In case, if the cross sustain above 143.80 it can go up to 144.00 and 144.50 levels.


Trade:


Buying at a market price of 143.15 with sl 142.80 for targets at 143.50, 143.70, 144.00 and 144.50 (above 143.80 only next upswing)


Selling between 143.80 and 144.00 for targets at 143.20, 143.00 and 142.80- High risk


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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for November 06, 2014

There is a handful of events for this pair in today's session. Traders eye monthly manufacturing production data and BoE interest rate decision. For the US dollar, unemployment data is the most expected event. We expect high volatility ahead of key events. As of now, the pair fails to form a bottom. In yesterday's session the pair made a new low at 1.5869 in an intraday session, but managed to erase 3/4 of its losses. On a daily closing basis the level 1.5900 is the minor base and 1.5875 and 1.5850 are strong support levels. The panic will be triggered below 1.5850 for targets at 1.5750 and 1.5720 levels. The pair has weekly resistance at 1.6025, above this, we can expect 1.6092 and 1.6200 levels. Until the prices close below 1.6200 use every rise as an opportunity to sell.


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Today, the cable opened on a bearish note, opened higher at 1.5977. The prices are facing strong resistance at 34hrsma levels. The cable has been facing strong resistance between 1.6020 and 1.6027 levels on an hourly closing basis. In case, if the hourly candle closes above 1.6030, then only it can challenge the upswing. For an hourly basis, the cable has support at 1.5950 levels, below this, a free fall will be triggered on this pair for targets at 1.5957 and 1.5900. The prices are expanding their lows, representing limited upside, and again a new low will take place.


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Trading recommendation and review on Gold for November 06, 2014

The yellow metal prices tumbled to 4-year lows. The strong US private sector jobs data and the Republican victory pushed the metal to new lows. Now the focus shifts to Friday's non-farm payroll data. A positive reading will put pressure on the metal's prices again, towards $1,100.00 or even lower. The metal is down 2% in an intraday session. This is the fourth sell with a pause of 2 days in a week. In yesterday's session again we recommended selling at $1,168.50 and safe selling below $1,160.0 for targets at $1,138.00, it exactly made a low at $1,137.50 levels. The metal has strong resistance at the broken support trend line, above this, $1,188.00, 200MSma, and $1,212.00, 200MEma. The monthly resistance exists at $1,233.00. As we recommend earlier, again last Friday, this Monday and again in yesterday's article as well, we still remain for our targets at $1,150.00, $1,100.00, $1,024.00, $927.00 and $850.00-$800.00 in the longer-term view.


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Resistance: $1,174.50, $1,182.00, $1,200.00


Support: $1,137.00, $1,120.00, $1,102.00


Today the metal opened on a open=low formula. For an hourly basis, the prices are closed above 35DEMA, but facing strong resistance at 12ema levels. The prices have strong resistance between $1,150.00 and $1,155.00 levels, above these, $1,173.00 and $1,177.50 levels. Use every rise to sell. These are valid for the next 48 hours. We recommend fresh selling below $1,137.00 for targets at $1,118.00.


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Forecast and review on USD/CAD for November 06, 2014

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The price rises to more than 5-year highs. In yesterday's session the pair made a high at 1.1467, but at the end of the day it erases intraday gains and closed with losses. On a daily closing basis the pair made a double top at 1.1410 levels. Today the pair opened on a bullish note, opened lower at 1.1386 levels. In case, if the prices close above 1.1410 on a daily closing basis, it will challenge 1.1644 in the short term. We have been recommending the same target in our previous articles. The pair has been enjoying its upswing with higher lows in the weekly chart for 2 years. In case, if the pair closes above 1.1279 on a weekly closing basis the pair will challenge 1.1530 in the near term, 1.1644 and 1.1685, in the medium term and 1.1900, 1.2350 in the long term perspective. This view is valid with sl 1.0620 on a weekly closing basis. The same targets we have been recommending from 1.1200 levels (refer to the October 01, 2013 article). During this week, we are expecting another weekly break for a 600-pip upswing. The day before yesterday, we recommended buying for targets at 1.1450, 1.1530 and 1.1630 levels. In yesterday's session our first target was met; waiting for the rest.


Today the US unemployment claims and Canadian building permits will decide the pair's path.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for November 06, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The EUR/JPY pair extends rally further up towards 144.50 right now, before reversing sharply about 120 pips. As seen here, the pair takes out past resistance at 143.78 levels indicating a potential/meaningful pullback. Furthermore, 1H charts confirm engulfing bearish candlestick pattern as well. Hence it is recommended to initiate short positions now (143.27/30), risk remains above 144.50. Resistance is seen at 144.50, followed by 145.50, while supports are seen at 141.70 levels, followed by 140.50, 137.00 and lower respectively. The pair could re-trace lower at least into 140.00 levels, which is fibonacci 0.382 support.


Trading recommendations:


Initiate short positions now, set stop at 144.55, target is open.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for November 06, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The GBP/CHF had pulled back from 1.5450 levels earlier, which is also marked by fibonacci 0.786 resistance as seen here. The pair is now expected to continue drifting lower till prices remain below 1.5450 levels. Resistance is seen at 1.5475, followed by 1.5550/5, while support is seen at 1.5200, followed by 1.5125, 1.4975 and lower respectively. It is recommended to remain short for now, risk remains above 1.5550. Bears are expected to remain in control for now, till prices remain below 1.5450 levels. On the flip side, a push above 1.5450/75 levels would delay matters further.


Trading recommendations:


Remain short, set stop above 1.5550, target is open.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for November 06, 2014

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When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as German Factory Orders m/m, Retail PMI, Eurogroup Meetings, Spanish 10-y Bond Auction, French 10-y Bond Auction, Minimum Bid Rate.The US will release the economic data too such as the Challenger Job Cuts y/y, Unemployment Claims, Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q, Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q, Natural Gas Storage, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.2536.

Strong Resistance:1.2529.

Original Resistance: 1.2517.

Inner Sell Area: 1.2505.

Target Inner Area: 1.2476.

Inner Buy Area: 1.2447.

Original Support: 1.2435.

Strong Support: 1.2423.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.2416.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for November 06, 2014

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In Asia, Japan will release the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, Leading Indicators and the US will release some economic data such as Challenger Job Cuts y/y, Unemployment Claims, Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q, Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q, Natural Gas Storage. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with low to medium volatility during the US session.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 115.48.

Resistance. 2: 115.26.

Resistance. 1: 115.04.

Support. 1: 114.76.

Support. 2: 114.53.

Support. 3: 114.31.


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Daily analysis of USDX for November 06, 2014

The USDX continues forming a bullish pattern below the resistance level of 87.35. However, the USDX could conduct a retracement to the psychological level of 87.00, although this instrument is still holding strong in the current bullish trend. The MACD indicator remains in positive territory, which would support our current bullish trend.


Dailychart's resistance levels: 87.35 / 88.63


Dailychart's support levels: 86.20 / 85.18


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On the H1 chart, the USDX has consolidated above the support level of 87.28. Now, the USDX has encountered strong resistance at the 87.58 level. If successful, it is expected to rise to the level of 87.86 which would be a strong bullish consolidation in the short term. However, the USDX is showing weakness in the current trend, so it would not be surprising that the USDX to fall to 87.00 level.


H1 chart's resistance levels: 87.58 / 87.86


H1 chart's support levels: 87.28 / 87.00


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Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 87.58, take profit is at 87.86, and stop loss is at 87.28.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for November 06, 2014

At the H4 chart, the GBP/USD has made a rebound on the support level of 1.5874 because qthe pair fell steeply from the level of 1.6004. Now, the GBP/USD is trying to consolidate above the support level of 1.5951, while this pair is still holding strong in the current bearish trend. GBP/USD still remains below the 200 SMA.


H4chart's resistance levels: 1.6004/1.6051


H4chart's support levels: 1.5951/1.5874


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The GBP/USD is trying to make a pullback on the resistance level of 1.5980, which is very likely to fall to the support level of 1.5925 on the H1 chart. If GBP/USD manages to make a breakout at the level of 1.5925, the next target would be the support level 1.5871. The MACD indicator is in the overbought zone.


H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5980 / 1.6031


H1 chart's support levels: 1.5925 / 1.5871


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Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.5925, take profit is at 1.5871, and stop loss is at 1.5980.


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Daily analysis of Silver for November 05, 2014

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Overview


Silver has failed to break the Support level of 15.00 to bounce again from it and to trade between this Support level of 15.30 and below the Resistance level of 15.75. Currently, the metal is approachig the Resistance level of 15.75 again, therefore we should wait for closing above to continue its upward trend move. Given that the metal has managed to close 4H above today, this gives us a good opportunity for more bullish signals above it with the first target few pips below the Resistance level of 16.00, then the second target at 16.40, after breaking this Support level. But as long as silver is trading below 15.75, waiting would be preferred in that case as it cancels the bullish move scenario.


Resistance and support levels: R3 (16.40), R2 (16.00), R1 (15.75), S1 (15.30), S2 (15.00), S3(14.80).


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EUR/NZD analysis for November 05, 2014

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Overview:


In our last analysis, EUR/NZD has been trading downwards. As we expected, the price tested and rejected from the level of 1.6004 in an average volume. Our Fibonacci expansion 100% 1.6190 is now on the test. According to the 1H time frame, we can observe absorption volume in the background, which is a sign that selling EUR/NZD looks risky. If the price breaks the level of 1.6190 in a high volume and strong price action takes place, we may see possible testing the level of 1.6250 (swing hihg like resistance).


Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.6162


R2: 1.6197


R3: 1.6252


Support levels:


S1: 1.6051


S2: 1.6016


S3: 1.5960


Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling EUR/NZD pair since we got absorption volume according to the 1H time frame.


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