No longer a leader: the number of drilling rigs in the USA has reached a minimum

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According to Baker Hughes, an oil and gas service company, over the past week, the number of operating oil drilling rigs in the United States has decreased by 4 to 873 units. As a result, America's leadership position on this issue has been shaken, analysts say.

According to experts, this figure is the minimum value since mid-October this year. Previously, an even more significant decline was recorded by 10 pieces. Experts consider such a weekly drop as the highest since April 2016. The previous impressive reduction in the number of drilling rigs was in mid-August 2018, when their number decreased by 9 pieces.

The total number of oil and gas rigs decreased by 4 to 1075 units. During the reporting period, the number of gas installations remained the same, 198 units.

Recall, the absolute record for the number of operating oil installations in the United States was reached in October 2014. At that time, their number was 1609 pieces. This year, the peak values were reached last week from November 14 until November 16, when the number of active rigs was 888.

According to statistics from the US Department of Energy, published last Wednesday, December 12, the volume of oil production in the country fell to 11.6 million barrels per day. This was preceded by three weeks of stability when production levels remained at 11.7 million barrels per day. Experts believe this figure is quite high.

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The pound is waiting for tips from the Bank of England

The meeting of the Bank of England and the release of data on British inflation for November, forcing investors to closely monitor the pound. And let the sterling in recent times often ignore macroeconomic statistics and show heightened sensitivity to politics, it cannot go on indefinitely for so long. As soon as the issue with Brexit is resolved, everyone will again be engaged in studying the BoE worldview. It is quite possible that in December, the regulator will give a hint as to its further actions depending on the change in the political landscape.

By the end of October, the average wage increased by 3.3% y / y. After the indicator showed an acceleration in the first half of the summer, in August, the Bank of England raised the repo rate to 0.75%, the maximum value since the global financial crisis. In December, no one expects him to do his deeds, which is primarily due to political motives. As soon as the situation with Brexit clears up, BoE will have a free hand. In the meantime, the derivatives market does not expect a tightening of monetary policy before 2020. It is possible that after March 2019 these expectations will shift to a much earlier time, which will support the pound.

Dynamics of average salary and repo rates

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In the meantime, the "bulls" on GBP / USD are trying to translate the battle into the clinch after active attacks by opponents, who have increased the pair's quotes to around 1.25. The catalyst for sales was the increasing likelihood of Brexit's indiscriminate after Theresa May canceled a vote in the British Parliament. The Prime Minister has returned to Brussels and, according to the chief negotiator for the EU, Michel Barnier, is trying to revive previously rejected ideas. French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel categorically declare that there can be no revision of the treaty. Formally, the situation looks like a stalemate, but in fact, London has the opportunity to cancel article 50 unilaterally, invalidate the referendum and return to life in the European Union. If events develop according to such a scenario, according to Commerzbank analysis, the EUR / GBP pair will drop to 87 (median forecast of Bloomberg experts is 88). According to the bank, almost all the negative has already been taken into account in the quotes of sterling, while the euro still has room to fall against the background of the weakness of the eurozone economy, the growing risks of the ECB monetary expansion and unresolved issues with Italy.

As for GBP / USD, a lot here will depend on the outcome of the last 2018 FOMC meeting. The Fed is facing a difficult task. The central bank is at a point where excessive passivity can lead to uncontrolled inflation, and activity can lead to a recession. It is not surprising that he changes the aggressive rhetoric to restrained and tries to focus on incoming data, which theoretically could weaken the US dollar.

Technically, on the daily chart of GBP / USD consolidation takes place in the range of 1.25-1.27. Breaking through its lower border will open to the bears the way to the south in the direction of the target by 161.8% according to the AB = CD pattern. On the contrary, a confident assault on resistance at 1.27 will increase the risks of a rollback to the current downtrend.

GBP / USD, the daily graph

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Heat" on Forex: The Fed meeting, the Central Bank of England and 7 more events

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The news background will be abundant, so the new week promises to be fruitful for traders and will bring a lot of investment ideas. Today, there are data on inflation in the euro area, which traditionally have an impact on the euro due to the fact that they are one of the important parameters that shape the direction of the ECB rate. It is expected that the annual rate in November will remain at 2%, which will be a signal for further tightening of the ECB's plans. The single currency may rise in price in response to the publication of the release.

However, now after the correction, the euro / dollar pair is preparing to decline. On Friday, the sellers broke through two supports, 1.1341 and 1.1318, while today at Asian trading, they shifted a maximum of 1.1313. The course may be slowly moving up, but analysts are still waiting for the downward movement of the pair.WXryUKagjZKubSA18n3Wq5G7zqLwR4I1X7xMCSW3On Tuesday, Germany will present the business climate index, and the US will publish data on the number of building permits issued. It is predicted that the situation in the construction sector improved last month; if this is confirmed, the dollar will not allow the euro to climb far to the top. With strong statistics, dollar bulls will try to play their positions.

Especially tense will be the middle of the week, the expected block of data on inflation in the UK. This indicator is likely to grow in annual terms from 2.4% to 2.5%. Accelerating inflation seems to be a positive factor that may contribute to an increase in the value of a pound. However, there is another side to the coin: the acceleration may be dictated by the weakening of the sterling due to Brexit. In other words, this does not apply to production inflation. This means that the British currency risks to go down again, especially since the country's Prime Minister Theresa May remains in her position and continues the process of leaving the EU.28Y9qKWD6B6zwTNkeUmp9v5keOb_71jYRHGzLSLJOn the same day, Fed officials will announce a decision on the interest rate, which is likely to be raised from 2.25% to 2.5%. However, market participants will be most interested in the statements of the FOMC representatives, namely their plans for the future. Traders want to have information about the rate of policy tightening in 2019.

Although the decision on the rate at the last meeting this year does not cause disputes and is not a secret, the dollar can give a reaction, having strengthened in pair with the euro to 1.1280.

On Thursday, traders will continue to concentrate on the British pound, as the Bank of England will announce the rate decision. Here, changes in monetary policy are not expected, the regulator made it clear that he does not plan to raise the rate before the spring of next year. No surprises are expected from the Central Bank, therefore a retail indicator may surprise the market, which is unlikely to affect the overall dynamics of the pound.

On Friday, the day of GDP. Data on growth rates will be published by three powers at once, the USA, Great Britain, and Canada.

If the release of the latter is optimistic, the Canadian dollar will receive support in the short term. In the more distant future, the US dollar / Canadian dollar pair will remain in the range of 1.33-1.35. As for the UK, the final assessment of economic growth can be adjusted.

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In 2019, the dollar will be cheaper, but you can earn on it - UBS

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Analysts of the Swiss financial holding UBS Group expect the weakening of the US dollar over the next two years.

Experts cited a recovery in economic growth and a tightening of monetary policy outside the country as reasons that could lead to a steady decline in the value of the American currency.

"The best trading idea in the Forex market in 2019, we believe the opening of long positions in the Australian dollar (AUD) and the Norwegian krone (NOK) against short positions in the Canadian (CAD) and American (USD) dollars," said the company.

"It is assumed that progress in trade negotiations, increased fiscal stimulation in the Middle Kingdom and a depreciation of the US dollar will support the AUD, even if the Reserve Bank of Australia will keep the interest rate unchanged until 2020. Meanwhile, CAD will lag behind if the Bank of Canada completes the cycle of tightening monetary policy when the rate reaches the lower limit of the "neutral" for the country's economy range of 2.5–3.5%," they added.

"At the same time, we are optimistic about both the Norwegian (NOK) and the Swedish Krona (SEK), since the internal factors contributing to the growth of GDP remain strong, and central banks must keep the mood for normalizing the policy," the UBS experts said.

According to them, the discrepancy in the pace of economic development of the United States and the eurozone will be crucial for the pair EUR / USD, which is now trading well below the fair value range of 1.25-1.35. It is expected that the negative impact on the euro of such factors as Brexit and the Italian budget deficit will gradually disappear.

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What losses Asia has already suffered in a trade war, and how global growth will suffer

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The trade war between the United States and China is already affecting business confidence and investment in Asia, an IMF spokesman said, warning the fund could lower its global growth projections in January.

According to the IMF, Japan and South Korea may be among the countries in the region most affected by the trade war, given their dependence on exports to China. Investment is already much lower than expected, the loss of confidence already affects the global economy, especially Asian countries. Global growth noticeably slowed down compared to October forecasts.

Referring to the potential consequences of the Sino-US trade war, the IMF lowered its forecast for global growth in October to 3.7 percent in 2018 and 2019, compared with 3.9 percent in July. Economic growth in Asia is expected to slow to 5.4 percent next year from the 5.6 percent that is projected. There is a possibility that the IMF may lower its forecasts in January, given the signs of a slowdown not only in Asia, but also in Europe and the United States. Uncertainty is so great and means that there is potential for both raising and lowering forecasts. But at the moment the risk of decline is somewhat higher. The IMF noted that China is unlikely to resort to large-scale incentives, given the need to solve long-term problems, such as limiting excess debt.

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Experts consider December 2018 as the most failed for almost 40 years

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According to analysts, the beginning of this month was very negative for the US stock market. Leading US indices show the worst performance over the past 38 years. This leads to the conclusion that investors in the United States may be left without a Christmas rally.

US stock indices survived another busy week, completing its most failed since December 1980 result. For the first ten trading sessions in December, the indices slipped by almost 6%, which cannot but bother the experts. Recall, usually the last month of the year is accompanied by a take-off of quotes, the so-called "Christmas rally".

At the moment, the Dow Jones index has lost over 10% of its historical maximum, recorded in October 2018. Other major indices, the S & P 500 and Nasdaq, fell even more. In general, US stock indicators have gone into a minus since the beginning of this year, analysts say

The situation on the US market is extremely negative. Most investors see no point in buying. The decisive factors affecting the deterioration of the market situation were news about the slowdown of the Chinese economy and the growing trade conflict between the United States and China. The provisional truce between the parties did not improve the situation, experts emphasize.

The policy of world central banks also has a negative impact on the market. The US Federal Reserve periodically raises rates and withdraws liquidity, and the European Central Bank (ECB) is preparing to complete an asset purchase program. Experts believe that this will negatively affect investment prospects.

Most market participants are waiting for further action by the Fed. They believe that in 2020, the Fed will reduce the rate. However, many traders are guided by a significant change in the policy of the regulator. On Wednesday, December 19, all the attention of market participants will be directed to the Fed meeting, namely to the press conference of its head Jerome Powell. The result will be the publication of the macroeconomic forecasts of the regulator. Many experts hope that this will give a start to the Christmas rally.

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EUR / USD: The US dollar is preparing to raise interest rates. May failed another Brexit negotiations

The US dollar rose strongly against the euro and the British pound in trading on Friday due to good fundamental statistics, as well as in anticipation of a rise in interest rates in the United States, which is scheduled for December 19.

Excellent reports on retail sales and industrial production in the United States once again convinced investors that the US economy might be able to avoid a recession until 2020.

According to a report by the US Department of Commerce, consumer spending rose in November of this year amid holiday purchases before Christmas. According to the data, retail sales grew by 0.2% in November of this year and amounted to 513.5 billion dollars. Economists had expected an increase of only 0.1%. Compared to the same period of the previous year, sales increased by 4.2%.

As I noted above, a good growth in industrial production in the United States in November indicates the excellent state of the American economy, which is likely to continue its growth further. The increase in production was due to increased demand for utilities.

According to the Federal Reserve, industrial production in the United States in November of this year increased immediately by 0.6% compared with the previous month, while economists expected it to increase by only 0.3%. Compared to the same period of the previous year, production increased by 3.9%.

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Despite a good overall figure, it is worth noting that manufacturing industry, which accounts for the lion's share of the country's total industrial production, remained unchanged in November. Growth was noted at 1.7% in the mining sector, and the maximum was recorded in the utility sector, where production increased immediately by 3.3% compared with the previous month.

Inventories in the US also showed growth. As indicated in the report of the US Department of Commerce, reserves increased by 0.6% to $ 1.982 trillion. Economists had forecast growth of 0.6%.

As for the current technical picture of the EUR / USD pair, the serious fall of the euro will not pass without a trace. Given that traders are waiting for interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve System this week, short-term demand for the dollar may continue.

The breakthrough of the intermediate support level in the area of 1.1300 will lead to the formation of a new wave of sales of risky assets, which will return the trading instrument to the lows of this month in the area of 1.1260. The upward correction in the euro, which can be observed at the beginning of this week, will be limited to large resistance levels around 1.1340 and 1.1360.

Great Britain

The British pound, meanwhile, is also losing ground against the US dollar, after the British Prime Minister Theresa May again failed to find a "common language" with the leaders of the EU countries at a meeting that took place last week in Brussels. This suggests that May has once again failed to achieve a mitigation of the terms of the Brexit agreement, as well as resolve the issue with the Irish border.

The reports said that May was unable to clearly articulate to the EU leaders what guarantees she needed for the British Parliament to approve the agreement. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker stated that none of the leaders agreed to revise the Brexit agreement in any form. At the same time, the President of the European Council Tusk noted that he does not have a mandate from EU leaders to organize further negotiations on Brexit, but the EU is always ready for further discussions of conditions with the British Prime Minister.

With regard to the technical picture of the GBP / USD pair, a breakthrough of support levels around 1.2570 and 1.2525 will lead to a new large wave of sales of the pound with the update of the next lows in the area of 1.2480 and 1.2430, which will form a new downtrend in the trading tool. The upward correction of GBP / USD will be limited by a large resistance level of 1.2670, where the upper limit of the current wide side channel is located.

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BITCOIN Analysis for December 17, 2018

Bitcoin has raised above the area of $3,350, after being corrective and bearish below the area for a few days. The price has recently increased above the $3,350 area, breaking through the dynamic level of 200 EMA. As of the current market scenario and the formation of Bearish Extreme Divergence for the sudden bullish momentum, the price is expected to go down towards the $3,350 area as a pullback, and then move up towards the $3,500 resistance area in the coming days. As the price remains above the area of $3,000, the bullish pressure is anticipated to continue pushing the price higher, despite the current overall bearish trend.

SUPPORT: 3,000; 3,350

RESISTANCE: 3,450; 3,500

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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GBP / USD pair: plan for the US session on December 17. Pound returns Friday losses

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

Buyers managed to stay above the support of 1.2570 in the first half of the day and try to consolidate above the resistance of 1.2616, which will lead to a larger uptrend and return of GBP / USD to a maximum of 1.2673, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of a pound return below the support level of 1.2616, it is best to return to long positions to rebound from the morning low of 1.2570.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

It is best to consider a short position on the pound in the second half of the day after the update of the major resistance to rebound from 1.2673. However, the main task will be the return and consolidation below the level of 1.2616, which will lead to a greater pressure on GBP / USD and a decline in the pair to the area of morning support 1.2570, where I recommend taking profits.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade again moved above the 30- and 50-day moving, which indicates the formation of the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

In the case of a decrease in the pound in the afternoon, long positions can be considered immediately to rebound from the middle border of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.2585, which acts as a support.

Forex market video forecast for December 17

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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EUR / USD pair: plan for the US session on December 17. Weak inflation data did not harm the euro

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Once again, weak statistics on the eurozone economy is ignored by traders but I don't recommend hurrying with purchases at current levels. The decline in inflation and a weak report on foreign trade did not harm the euro. In the afternoon, the demand may persist until the update of the level 1.1356, where the upward potential will be limited. A more acceptable level for purchases will be the area of 1.1332. However, it is necessary to wait for the formation of a false breakdown. In the event of a decline in the euro under the support of 1.1332, it is best to consider long positions on a rebound from the morning support 1.1311.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Unfortunately, the bears were completely absent at the level of 1.1332 and lost it in the morning. You can sell the euro in the second half of the day for a rebound after the 1.1356 maximum test or after returning to the level of 1.1332, which will be a late reaction to weak statistics for the eurozone and will lead to profit taking on long positions returning to the support area of 1.1311, where I recommend to take profits.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted between the 30- and 50-day moving average, which indicates the uncertainty with the further short-term market direction.

Bollinger bands

If the euro declines in the second half of the day, it is best to return to purchases from the lower limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.1311.

Forex market video forecast for December 17

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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Authoritative financial institutions gave a forecast for gold in 2019

Most large investment banks agree that in the coming year, the rate of the American currency will decline. On the contrary, the price of gold will begin to grow. They provided relevant forecasts for the price of the yellow metal for 2019.

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In the outgoing year, the minimum value of gold was fixed in August, which was only 1,184 per 1 ounce. In the future, the precious metal went up by 5%. Experts of Bank of America Merrill Lynch have posted positive comments on the gold market. According to analysts of the bank, a weak US dollar, rising inflation and low interest rates will be catalysts for the growth of the price of the yellow metal in 2019. They do not exclude an increase in the value of gold to the level of $1,400 for 1 ounce and the cost of the precious metal will be $ 1,296 by the end of 2018.

According to the strategists of the Dutch bank ABN Amro, in the coming year, the yellow metal will rise in price to $1,400 for 1 ounce. Experts believe that growth drivers are the weakening of the US currency, low yields on government bonds and an increase in demand for gold in the PRC.

Experts from the Chinese ICBC Bank are confident of a significant increase in gold prices in the third quarter of next year. They believe that by this time, 1 oz of precious metal will give $ 1320. By the end of this year, the average price of gold will be $ 1,293, according to ICBC.

TD Securities analysts give their forecast for the value of the yellow metal in 2019. They are convinced that the price of gold will rise to $ 1,300 for 1 ounce. According to experts, the driver of rising precious metal prices will be a slowdown in the Fed rate hike.

Analysts of the French bank BNP Paribas disagree with the previous forecasts on the value of gold in 2019. The position of financial institution experts is opposite to the opinion of the others: they claim that gold prices fall below $ 1,200 per 1 ounce. Bank specialists are confident in strengthening the US currency, so the cost of the precious metal will not exceed $ 1,145 for 1 ounce. BNP Paribas believes that investors will prefer US government bonds as a safe haven instead of the yellow metal.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for December 17, 2018

Since Mid-November, the GBP/USD pair failed to establish a successful bullish breakout above the price level of 1.2880 (the upper limit of the depicted consolidation range).

On December 6, the GBP/USD pair failed to demonstrate a successful breakout above 1.2780 (79.6% Fibonacci). That's why, a significant bearish decline was demonstrated towards the price level of 1.2500.

This bearish decline extended down to the price level of 1.2480 before bullish recovery could take place on December 12.

The current scenario could pursue as a bearish flag continuation pattern provided that bearish persistence below 1.2660 (corresponding to a prominent daily low) is maintained on a daily basis.

On the other hand, the current bullish pullback towards the price zone of 1.2660-1.2700 can be watched for a valid SELL entry as this price zone corresponds to the backside of the broken consolidation range as well as the depicted downtrend on the H4 chart.

Projected target for the bearish flag continuation pattern is located around 1.2300. Initial bearish destination is located around 1.2580 while S/L should be set as daily closure above 1.2800.

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Control zones of EUR/USD pair 12/17/18

The fall on last week's stop was due to the fact that the pair has broken the middle move. The downward model remains unfinished, which allows us to consider one of the nearest control zones as resistance.

In the fall of the pair, last week's weekly control zone of 1.1320-1.1240 was not reached. his is in favor of resuming the downward movement for the implementation of the priority model. The first resistance is 1/4 CZ of 1.1320-1.1316. If today's closing of the American session happens below this zone, it will be possible to sell the instrument in a stop not exceeding 20 points.

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The most favorable prices for sale are located within the 1/2 CZ of 1.1371-1.1362. Testing this zone will be decisive for the downward movement. To continue the fall, it will be enough to close the American session below the specified zone.

For the formation of a reversal pattern, it will be necessary to absorb the Friday fall and close the American session above the level of 1.1371. This will indicate the abolition of the downward movement and will provide an opportunity to look for purchases tomorrow. The probability of implementation of this model is 30%, which makes it auxiliary. Do not forget that the pair has been trading for a long time within the medium-term accumulation zone and so far it has only gone beyond false.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market that change several times a year.

Weekly fault - weekly control zone. The area formed by marks from important futures market which change several times a year.

Monthly fault - monthly control zone. The area is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for December 17, 2018

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On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair is demonstrating a high-probability Head and Shoulders reversal pattern where the right shoulder is currently in progress.

On the Daily chart, the pair has been moving sideways with slight bearish tendency. Recent bearish consolidations have been maintained within the depicted daily movement channel since June 2018.

On November 13, the EUR/USD demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the lower limit of the channel as well as the depicted demand zone came to meet the pair.

Bullish fixation above 1.1420 was needed to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1520. However, the market has demonstrated significant bearish rejection around 1.1420 few times so far.

The EUR/USD pair remains under bearish pressure below 1.1420. Thus, the pair remains trapped between 1.1420 and 1.1270 until a breakout occurs in either direction.

If early bearish breakout below 1.1270 is achieved on lower timeframes, a quick decline should be expected towards 1.1150-1.1100.

On the other hand, bullish fixation above 1.1420 invalidates the bearish scenario allowing a further bullish advance to occur towards 1.1520 and 1.1610.

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Control zones of AUD/USD pair 12/17/18

Last week, the downward movement of the pair resumed, which allows you to keep sales open after testing the 1/2 control zone of 0.7246-0.7239. It is important to note that the pair has already overcome the monthly average.

The downward movement remains a priority in the medium term, but at the end of last week, there was a test of the monthly CZ of December. This suggests the emergence of demand and stops the decline. In case of going beyond the monthly CZ, the probability of returning to its limits is 90%. This suggests the need to find a buying pattern and close most of the sales or completely liquidate a short position.

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Today, the December futures contract will expire, which could be the reason for changing the current downward phase. It will be possible to buy from the current marks if the reversal pattern is formed on a lower timeframe.

A downward movement is impulsive in nature, which indicates the need to hold a short position or part of it. The goal of the fall is the weekly CZ of 0.7133-0.7120. Upon reaching the specified zone, the pair will go beyond its monthly course. It is best to close all sales within the specified zone. If today's growth can absorb Friday's fall, purchases will come to the fore, as a reversal pattern will be formed.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market that change several times a year.

Weekly fault - weekly control zone. The area formed by marks from important futures market which change several times a year.

Monthly fault - monthly control zone. The area is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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The dollar easily holds leadership positions and is not going to slow down

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The dollar confidently holds near the 19-month high. Currency is spurred on by large volumes of purchases, as increased concerns about a slowdown in the global economy have reduced the appetite for riskier assets, such as stocks and Asian currencies.

The weaker-than-expected economic data from China and Europe, and fears of a possible suspension of the US government, scared investors off stocks, raising demand for the dollar and the yen. The dollar will always be attractive during times of market stress. In addition to fears of a slowdown in the global economy, markets also focus on US monetary policy. The Fed is likely to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Tuesday. Since December 2015, the Central Bank raised rates eight times, seeking to normalize its policy, after it reduced borrowing costs to almost zero to combat the financial crisis ten years ago. So the dollar will be guided by the decision of the Fed.

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As for the year 2019, three more rate hikes were predicted back in September. However, now only one is expected. There is reason to believe that higher borrowing costs will reduce the growth dynamics in the United States and ultimately force the Fed to suspend monetary tightening.

In the meantime, the dollar feels and will feel great. The American rose even in relation to the yen, by 0.1 percent, the difference in interest rates between the United States and Japan makes it more attractive compared to the Japanese currency. At the same time in December, the Central Bank of Japan is likely to keep its policy unchanged, which means the gap will become even larger.

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GBP / USD: plan for the European session on December 17. The pound is limited in growth

To open long positions on GBP / USD, you need:

Good US data led to a decrease in the British pound on Friday. There is no solution with Brexit, so growth is limited. Long positions can be seen after a false breakdown around 1.2570, and the last hope of buyers will be the level of 1.2527. The main task for today is the return and fixation above the resistance level of 1.2616, which will lead to a larger upward correction of GBP / USD to the maximum area of 1.2659, where I recommend fixing the profits.

To open short positions on GBP / USD, you need:

Sellers need a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.2616, which will be the first signal to short positions in the pound with an exit under the support level of 1.2570. Only fixing below this range will allow us to count on the continuation of the downward movement in GBP / USD, but the main task will be a breakthrough of the minimum of 1.2527, which will lead to the formation of a new downward trend.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trading has moved below the 30-day and 50-day moving averages, which indicates a continued decline in the pound. The 50-day average is a good resistance level, from which you can open short positions, but on condition of unsuccessful consolidation above.

Bollinger bands

The downward correction in the pair will be limited to the lower limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.2550, but the main goal will be at least 1.2527.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD: plan for the European session on December 17. The latest rise in the US dollar before the rate hike?

To open long positions on EUR / USD, you need:

Euro buyers left the market after good US statistics were released, against weak eurozone growth rates. At the moment, purchases can be viewed only if a false breakdown is formed in the morning support area of 1.1306, with the main goal being to break and consolidate above 1.1332. Only this scenario will allow us to consider the continuation of growth of EUR / USD to a maximum of 1.1356, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of a pair decline in the first half of the day under the level of 1.1306, you can take a closer look at long positions after the large support test of 1.1286, where traders will try to build the lower limit of the new ascending channel.

To open short positions on EUR / USD, you need:

Sellers will continue to bet on the fall of the euro before raising rates in the US this week. A good level for short positions can be seen in the resistance area of 1.1332, or you can sell EUR / USD for a rebound from the maximum of 1.1356. The main task will be the return and consolidation under the support of 1.1306, which will lead to a number of sales of the euro with a minimum of 1.1286 and 1.1267, where I recommend fixing the profit.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade has moved under the 30-day and 50-day moving averages, which indicates a continued decline in the euro. The 50-day moving average is a good resistance level, from which you can open short positions to rebound.

Bollinger bands

In the case of a decline in the euro, long positions can be viewed at a rebound from the lower limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator, which is located in the 1.1282 area.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Before the FOMC meeting, the markets poorly concealed panic

The US dollar on the eve of the key meeting of the FOMC received support after the publication on Friday of a number of quite important macroeconomic data.

The volume of retail sales in November rose by 0.2% compared to October, which slightly exceeded the forecasts of experts, the revision of data for October also turned out to be in positive territory, from 0.8% to 1.1%. The so-called control group of goods, which does not take into account automobiles, gasoline and building materials, grew by 0.9%, year-on-year growth rates slowed down from 2.5% to 2.2%.

Industrial production growth in November was + 0.6%, which also exceeded forecasts, industrial capacity utilization increased, and positive data allowed us to raise the estimate for GDP growth rates. The GDPNow model, calculated by the Atlanta Fed, predicts economic growth of 3.0% in the fourth quarter, while the previous forecast was at 2.4%, a positive adds confidence on the eve of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday.

At the same time, preliminary data on business activity in December give quite different results. The manufacturing PMI slowed down from 55.3p to 53.9p, for the services sector the decline from 54.7p to 53.4p, the composite PMI index decreased from 54.7p to 53.6p, which is 19-month low.

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If before the November meeting the Fed's plans looked clear and well calculated, now everything is completely different. An unplanned fall in stock markets risks turning into a full-fledged collapse if the Fed allows itself to drastically soften rhetoric and, as a justification, declares not a threat of a slowdown in the global economy, but as a fait accompli. Therefore, most likely, the Fed will focus on slowing down the economies of developing countries, while for the United States it will maintain public optimism for some time.

The dollar on Monday morning still looks confident, and has not started the expected deceleration phase. It is not necessary to expect its weakening until Wednesday, since further dynamics will depend almost entirely on changes in forecasts, the insider in such cases is excluded, and investors will prefer to wait.

Eurozone

Eurozone PMIs, published on Friday, look even worse. The manufacturing PMI slowed down from 51.6p to 51.4p, in the services sector slowing down from 53.4p to 51.4p, the composite index fell to 51.3p, which is a 49-month high. At the same time, the European interbank EONIA rate decreases, which always precedes the onset of a recession.

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The ECB highlighted 13 different reasons why the economic growth in the current year was weaker than expected, but it should also be noted that other European Central Banks are in no hurry to start tightening. The NBS left the rate at the current level, the Bank of Norway and the Riksbank pause, and all global weakness is cited as the main cause.

Interesting story occurred with the harmonization of the budget of Italy. After the parties finally found a compromise on a deficit of 2.04%, they would recount their balance sheet positions, and it turned out that the discrepancy is 4.5 billion euros, or 0.25%. That is, the Italian government has hidden part of the planned expenses, and if today this error is not eliminated, the threat of launching the mechanism of penalties will again become relevant.

On Monday, EUR / USD is definitely under pressure, growth to 1.1340 is the maximum that bulls can count on, it is more likely to re-test support at 1.1265 and try to go to 1.1215.

Great Britain

Reducing the likelihood of a happy ending to the Brexit saga disappointed investors, who began preparing for the worst possible scenario. For the second week in a row, according to the CFTC Friday report, short positions in the pound are growing faster than long ones, that is, players have begun to prepare for a new wave of decline in the pound as a more likely scenario.

The currency pair GBP / USD is under pressure, but before the FOMC meeting, the threat of a break of 1.2475 support is low. The pound will spend these two days in the lateral range with a downward trend.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of GBP / USD for December 17. There are chances for growth, but Brexit can lead to a fall again at any time.

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Wave counting analysis:

During the trading session on December 14, the GBP / USD currency pair fell by 65 basis points. At the same time, there is every reason to assume the completion of the construction of wave 5, a, as well. If this is true, then the increase in quotations will resume within the framework of the future wave b with targets located near the levels of 76.4% and 61.8% (to be refined after confirming the transition to building wave b). There is also a fairly high probability of complicating the downward trend, especially if the news background continues to put pressure on the pound sterling.

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.2696 - 100.0% of Fibonacci

1.2807 - 76.4% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.2398 - 161.8% of Fibonacci

1.2218 - 200.0% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD supposedly completed the construction of wave 5, a. A break of 1.2696, which corresponds to 100.0% of Fibonacci, will confirm the transition of the pair to the construction of the ascending wave b. In this case, I recommend buying an instrument in small volumes with targets located around 1.2807, which corresponds to 76.4% Fibonacci.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of EUR / USD for December 17. The currency pair still retains the chances of building a wave c

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Wave counting analysis:

In the course of trading on Friday, the EUR / USD currency pair fell by 60 basis points and broke through the support line. The most interesting thing is that the minimum of the assumed wave b has not yet been broken, so the probability of constructing wave c in the complicated version is preserved. Although, of course, the probability is now quite low. A successful attempt to break the wave b minimum will warn you of the readiness of the instrument to further decrease and will require adjustments to the current wave counting.

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.1215 - 0.0% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.1471 - 100.0% of Fibonacci

1.1528 - 127.2% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The currency pair continues to be in the framework of building an upward wave c. A break of 1.1266 will lead to a further decline with targets located near the estimated mark of 1.1215, which is equal to 0.0% Fibonacci and lower. The current wave counting is ambiguous and allows for both the construction of a wave c and the complication of a downward trend section. Thus, I recommend, first of all, to be careful when opening any transactions.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified wave analysis for USD / JPY pair for the week of December 14

Large-scale graphics:

The main trend of the price movement of the Japanese yen sets the end of March on an uptrend. Within its framework in July, a counter wave of the wrong kind is formed.

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Medium-scale graph:

The descending wave of October 4th develops as a flat triangle. The wave completes the larger bearish pattern.

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Small-scale graph:

From December 6, price fluctuations form an upward construction. In the wave of the older TF, it completes the middle part (B).

Forecast and recommendations:

On the pair chart, a small downside potential. Sales can be justified only on the smallest TF. It is recommended to wait for the completion of the current wave.

Explanations of the figures:

The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A - B - C). For the analysis, three main TFs are used. On every last part, the incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure while the dotted shows the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD. December 17th. The trading system. "Regression Channels". What will be the second referendum on Brexit?

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The junior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -90.6678

The GBP / USD currency pair continues to be below the MA, maintaining the downward trend. Who could have guessed such a development on Brexit at the end of 2018? Two years ago, in a referendum, the opinion of the country's withdrawal from the EU won with a minimum margin. Two years later, when the UK came close to the date of withdrawal from the European Union, the country may well cancel Brexit, according to a European Court ruling, hold a second Brexit referendum or still leave the EU with or without a "deal". That is, in fact, it is even unclear whether the UK will take a general exit from the bloc? That time, it was reported that some conservatives were preparing a second referendum and without the consent of Theresa May. Insider sources claim that high-ranking politicians from Theresa May's party have already spoken on the topic of a new referendum with Labor and other opposition forces. Theresa May herself believes that the new referendum will damage the state policy. But what else could the prime minister say on this issue, who vehemently insists that Brexit should take place, and it doesn't matter with or without a "deal"? Pound sterling, meanwhile, continues to walk on the blade of the knife, bargaining near new lows.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.2573

S2 - 1.2512

S3 - 1.2451

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.2634

R2 - 1.2695

R3 - 1.2756

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD continues the downward trend. Therefore, the turn of the indicator Heikin Ashi down will be a signal for the opening of new short positions with a target of 1.2512. The fundamental factor remains on the side of the American currency.

Buy-positions are recommended to consider the minimum lots with the target of 1.2695 if the pair manages to consolidate above the moving average line. However, even in this case, both linear regression channels will continue to be downward.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. December 17th. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Inflation in the EU may stir the market

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The junior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -89.9027

The currency pair EUR / USD on Monday, December 17, worked and rebounded from the Murray level of "1/8" - 1.1292. If you look more closely, the pair perfectly fulfilled its past local minimum. Thus, this level (1.1270) can now support the European currency and keep it from new declines. From a fundamental point of view, new data concerning the EUR / USD pair has not been made available to traders. Moreover, already on December 20, many politicians will go on vacation, so there will be very little news from the European Central Bank and the political spheres of the European Union. On the first trading day of the week in the eurozone, a report on the consumer price index for November is scheduled. It is expected that inflation will be 2% in annual terms. However, if the real value of the index is lower, then the Eurocurrency may again be under pressure. The Brexit theme seems to be closed for 2018. Of course, certain information may come in, for example, the speeches of officials or Theresa May. However, voting in parliament will take place as early as January 2019, unless there are new transfers and new political changes in the UK. From a technical point of view, an upward movement to the moving average is possible, and possibly even higher, since the level of 1.1270 is a support for the pair.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1292

S2 - 1.1230

S3 - 1.1169

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1353

R2 - 1.1414

R3 - 1.1475

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair has begun a correction against the downward trend. Turning the Heikin Ashi indicator down will signal the opening of shorts with a target of 1.1270 and in case of overcoming this level with a target of 1.1230.

Buy positions are recommended to be considered not earlier than traders overcome the moving average line with a target of 1.1414. Long positions will be relevant in small lots since both linear regression channels are directed downwards.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of the EUR / USD Divergences for December 17th. Now, the euro saves from a new fall of 1.1268

4h

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The EUR / USD currency pair closed below the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1303, but in the last hours, it made a U-turn to benefit from the euro and return to this level. As a result, the growth of quotations can be continued on December 17 in the direction of the correctional level of 76.4% - 1.1423. The new consolidation below the Fibo level of 100.0% can be interpreted as a reversal in favor of the American currency and the resumption of a fall in the direction of the correctional level of 127.2% - 1.1162 is expected.

The Fib net is built on extremes from August 15, 2018, and September 24, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the currency pair returned to the correctional level of 127.2% - 1.1285. The end of quotes from this Fibo level will allow traders to count on a turn in favor of the EU currency and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1553. Overcoming divergences today are not observed in any indicator. Fixing the pair below the Fibo level of 127.2% will work in favor of continuing to fall in the direction of the next correction level of 161.8% - 1.0941.

The Fib net is built on extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the EUR / USD currency pair can be made now with a target of 1.1423 and a Stop Loss order below the Fibo level of 100.0% since the pair completed the closure above the level of 1.1303.

The EUR / USD currency pair can be sold with a target of 1.1162 with a Stop Loss order above the Fibo level of 100.0% if the pair closes below the correction level of 1.1303 (hourly chart).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of the GBP / USD Divergences for December 17th. The bullish divergence predicts a pound rise

4h

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The GBP / USD currency pair on the 4-hour chart reversed in favor of the British currency after the formation of the bullish divergence at the CCI indicator and started the process of growth in the direction of the Fibo level of 100.0% - 1.2662. Reversing quotes from the correction level of 100.0% will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US currency and a resumption of decline in the direction of the correction level of 127.2% - 1.2491. Fixing the pair above the Fibo level of 100.0% will work in favor of continuing growth in the direction of the correction level of 76.4% - 1.2812.

The Fibo grid was built on extremes from August 15, 2018, and September 20, 2018.

1h

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On the hourly chart, the pair reversed in favor of the currency of England and fixed above the correction level of 127.2% - 1.2566. As a result, today the growth of quotations can be continued in the direction of the next correction level of 100.0% - 1.2696. The ripening divergences on December 17 are not seen in any indicator. Fixing the pair below the Fibe level of 127.2% will work in favor of the US dollar and resuming the fall in the direction of the correction level of 161.8% - 1.2400.

The Fib net is built on extremes from October 30, 2018, and November 7, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the GBP / USD currency pair can be made with the target of 1.2662 and a Stop Loss order below the level of 127.2%, as the pair completed closing above the correction level of 1.2566 (hourly chart)

Sales of the GBP / USD currency pair can be carried out with the target of 1.2400 and a Stop Loss order above the level of 127.2% if the pair closes below the level of 1.2566 (hourly chart).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for December 17, 2018

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Overview:

The EUR/USD pair fell from the level of 1.1338 towards 1.1265. Now, the price is set at 1.1330. The resistance is seen at the level of 1.1338 and 1.1390. Moreover, the price area of 1.1390/1.1338 remains a significant resistance zone. Therefore, there is a possibility that the EUR/USD pair will move downside and the structure of a fall does not look corrective. The trend is still below the 100 EMA for that the bearish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the downside. Thus, amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 1.1338 and 1.1253. If the EUR/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.1338, the market will decline further to 1.1253 as as the first target. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a negative spot and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 1.1197 so as to test the daily support 2. On the contrary, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 1.1338, then this scenario may become invalidated.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for December 17, 2018

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Overview:

The NZD/USD pair broke resistance which turned into strong support at the level of 0.6705 this week. The level of 0.6705 coincides with a golden ratio (61.8% of Fibonacci), which is expected to act as major support today. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is considered overbought because it is above 70. The RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it is still strong above the moving average (100). Besides, note that the pivot point is seen at the point of 0.6882. This suggests the pair will probably go up in coming hours. Accordingly, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. In other words, buy orders are recommended above 0.6800 with the first target at the level of 0.6882. From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.6882 and further to the level of 0.6984. The level of 0.6984 will act as strong resistance. On the other hand, if a breakout happens at the support level of 0.6705, then this scenario may become invalidated.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified wave analysis of EUR / USD pair for the week of December 14

Large-scale graph:

In the main wave of the downward trend, the unfinished ascending segment of the H4 scale from the middle of August forms a correction. In the model structure, the first 2 parts (A-B) are clearly traced.

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Medium-scale graph:

The rising wave of January 12 is spent most of the time moving sideways on the schedule. In this flat, there is a set of the required wave level for the final jerk up.

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Small-scale graph:

The descending section of December 10 completes the correction phase of a larger wave.

Forecast and recommendations:

A short-term price increase is expected this week, which can be used by supporters of the intersessional style. For longer trading, it is recommended to refrain from trading transactions until the current correctional wave is fully completed.

Resistance zones:

- 1.1490 / 1.1540

Support areas:

- 1.1300 / 1.1250

Explanations of the figures:

The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A - B - C). For the analysis, three main TFs are used. On every last part, the incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure while the dotted shows the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR / USD pair on December 17, 2018

EUR / USD pair

Friday events have been developing in their expected way. The euro pushed the balance line to the lower period on the daily chart. The price fixed below the balance lines and MACD. Also on the daily chart, the Marlin oscillator signal line has come down from the wedge. The reason for all was the failure data on business activity in the euro area and the unexpectedly high growth of industrial production in the United States.

The French Services PMI has fallen from 55.1 to 49.6 due to the protest movement of the "yellow helmets". As a result, the Eurozone Services PMI decreased from 53.4 to 51.4 in December. The Industrial PMI dropped from 51.8 to 51.4.

In the US, the industrial production grew by 0.6% against the expected 0.3% in November. Retail sales were also better than expected with 0.2% vs. 0.1%.

The trend of the euro finally gained a downward look. We are waiting for the price at the target levels of 1.1170 and 1.1080.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fractal analysis of major currency pairs for December 17

Dear colleagues.

For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, we have expanded the potential for a downward movement to the level of 1.1200. For the Pound / Dollar currency pair, the price is in the adjustment zone of the initial conditions for the top of December 11. For the Dollar / Franc currency pair, we should continue moving upwards after the breakdown of 0.9995. For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, we expect a further upward trend development from December 10 after the breakdown of 113.72. For the currency pair Euro / Yen, the price is close to the abolition of the rising structure of December 6 and the level of 127.96 is the key support. For the currency pair Pound / Yen, the price is in the correction zone of the initial conditions for the upward cycle of December 11 and the level of 141.91 is the key support.

Forecast for December 17:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:R_3qJINUYy42WwKeuvM8JPwfujdriNun1b343vghFor the Euro / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.1357, 1.1330, 1.1314, 1.1279, 1.1253, 1.1220 and 1.1200. Here, we are following the descending structure of December 10th. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.1279. In this case, the target is 1.1253 and consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 1.1250 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. In this case, the target is 1.1220 and consolidation is in the range of 1.1220 - 1.1200, and also from here, we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.1314 - 1.1330 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.1357 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward structure of December 10.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1314 Take profit: 1.1330

Buy 1.1332 Take profit: 1.1355

Sell: 1.1277 Take profit: 1.1255

Sell: 1.1250 Take profit: 1.1220jt4cV92WtijzCbdxmXNrpjr8mYf9hGlKV5GH2OzRFor the Pound / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.2865, 1.2813, 1.2741, 1.2679, 1.2592, 1.2552, 1.2517, 1.2475 and 1.2417. Here, the price is in the adjustment zone of the initial conditions for the upward cycle of December 11. An upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.2679. In this case, the target is 1.2741 and price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 1.2741 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.2813. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.2865, upon reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation, are possible in the range of 1.2592 - 1.2552. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 1.2517 and this level is the key support for the top. Its price will have the formation of the initial conditions for the upward cycle. In this case, the target is 1.2475.

The main trend is the formation of the ascending structure of December 11, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2680 Take profit: 1.2740

Buy: 1.2744 Take profit: 1.2813

Sell: 1.2591 Take profit: 1.2552

Sell: 1.2550 Take profit: 1.25170e2YctxSoUA2CXfvgmh-3TKJBD7ne_AjAVnpSFtjFor the Dollar / Franc currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.0093, 1.0058, 1.0042, 1.0014, 0.9995, 0.9954, 0.9940, 0.9920 and 0.9900. Here, we are following the development of the ascending cycle of December 11. The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.9995 - 1.0014 and the breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the goal is 1.0042 and in the range of 1.0042 - 1.0058 is the price consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.0093, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.9954 - 0.9940 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.9920 and this level is the key support for the top. Its breakdown will have to form a downward structure. In this case, the target is 0.9900.

The main trend is the ascending structure of December 11.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9995 Take profit: 1.0012

Buy: 1.0016 Take profit: 1.0040

Sell: 0.9954 Take profit: 0.9942

Sell: 0.9938 Take profit: 0.9920sOVkwf2UQS6e_cytYioiRNiDzZ-D6XRqCeVI0cVOFor the Dollar / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the scale are 114.83, 114.45, 114.13, 113.72, 113.30, 113.07 and 112.76. Here, we are following the development of the bottom-up structure from December 10th. An upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 113.72. Here, the target is 114.13 and in the range of 114.13 - 114.45 is the short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 114.83, after reaching which we expect a consolidated movement, as well as a rollback to the correction.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 113.30 - 113.07 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 112.76 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the rising structure of December 10.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 113.72 Take profit: 114.10

Buy: 114.14 Take profit: 114.42

Sell: 113.30 Take profit: 113.10

Sell: 113.04 Take profit: 112.80

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For the Canadian dollar / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3557, 1.3521, 1.3465, 1.3429, 1.3344, 1.3311 and 1.3247. Here, the price forms the local potential for the top of December 7th. The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.3429 - 1.3465 and the breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.3521. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.3557, upon reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

The range of 1.3344 - 1.3311 is the key support for the upward structure of December 7. Its price passage will have a downward movement development. In this case, the target is 1.3247 and this level is the key resistance for the bottom.

The main trend is the local structure for the top of December 7, the stage of deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3430 Take profit: 1.3465

Buy: 1.3467 Take profit: 1.3520

Sell: 1.3343 Take profit: 1.3113

Sell: 1.3308 Take profit: 1.3255

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For the Australian dollar / dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 0.7247, 0.7214, 0.7196, 0.7148, 0.7127, 0.7100 and 0.7049. Here, the price has shaped the local potential for the downward movement of December 13. The short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 0.7148 - 0.7127 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a movement to the level of 0.7100, near which we expect consolidation. The break of the level of 0.7100 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the goal is 0.7049, from this value, we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.7196 - 0.7214 and the breakdown of the latter value will have to form an ascending structure. Here, the target is 0.7247.

The main trend is the downward structure of December 4, the local potential for the bottom of December 13.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7196 Take profit: 0.7212

Buy: 0.7216 Take profit: 0.7245

Sell: 0.7148 Take profit: 0.7128

Sell: 0.7125 Take profit: 0.7100

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For the Euro / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 130.13, 129.82, 129.34, 128.95, 128.36, 128.09, 127.68 and 127.43. Here, we are following the formation of the ascending structure of December 6. At the moment, the price is in a deep correction. The short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 128.95 - 129.34 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to the development of a pronounced movement. In this case, the goal is 129.82. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 130.13, upon reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 128.36 - 128.09, hence a high probability of a reversal upwards. The breakdown of the level of 128.09 will have to form a local structure for the downward movement. In this case, the goal is 127.68 and the range of 127.68 - 127.43.

The main trend is the formation of the ascending structure of December 6.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 128.95 Take profit: 129.30

Buy: 129.37 Take profit: 129.80

Sell: 128.05 Take profit: 127.70

Sell: Take profit:

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For the Pound / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 144.18, 143.91, 143.54, 142.70, 142.42, 141.91 and 141.46. Here, the price has issued a pronounced potential for the top of December 11 and is currently located in the correction zone of this structure. The continuation of the upward trend is expected after the breakdown of 143.54. In this case, the goal is 143.91 and consolidation is near this level. Passing through the range of 143.91 - 144.18 will make it possible to count on the movement towards a potential target of 144.95, from this level, we expect a downward rollback.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 142.70 - 142.42 and the breakdown of the last value to the prolonged correction. Here, the target is 141.91 and this level is the key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the formation of potential for the top of December 11.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 143.55 Take profit: 143.90

Buy: 144.20 Take profit: 144.90

Sell: 142.70 Take profit: 142.45

Sell: 142.38 Take profit: 142.00

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