GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for May 14, 2015

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Overview:

On March 2, a bearish breakdown of the lower limit of the previous daily channel occurred enhancing the bearish side of the market.

Persistence below the zone of 1.4950-1.5000 indicated a further bearish decline towards 1.4700.

Shortly after, the bearish trend was resumed towards the level of 1.4550 where a lower daily bottom was established.

Evident bullish recovery emerged at 1.4560 pushing the GBP/USD pair above the level of 1.4700. Since then, successive higher highs have been established.

As anticipated, the daily closure above 1.5060 (50% Fibonacci level) exposed the next resistance levels at 1.5400 and 1.5450 where extensive bearish pressure was previously applied.

This enhanced the bearish side of the market towards the levels of 1.5300, 1.5250, and 1.5100 where the most recent bullish swing was initiated on May 5.

Note that Intraday Support 1 (price level of 1.5400) is the most prominent support level to be watched for buy entries when the further bearish pullback occurs.

On the other hand, the current price zone of 1.5750-1.5800 is a critical resistance zone to be watched for signs of bearish reversal and a possible sell entry if enough bearish pressure is applied.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for May 14, 2015

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Overview:

Since bulls pushed the price further above the upper limit of both depicted bullish channels and the 79.6% Fibonacci level, the market looked quite overbought. That is why the price failed to hold above 1.2650 - 1.2680 (previous highs) resulting in the formation of a Triple-top pattern.

Successive lower highs were established within the depicted consolidation zone enhancing the bearish side of the market.

Support levels around 1.2350 and 1.2300 (79.6% Fibonacci level) were broken after providing significant support for several weeks on the daily and weekly charts.

Daily fixation below 1.2300 cleared the way for the USD/CAD pair towards the levels of 1.2000 and 1.1940 (projection target of the recent range breakout and the depicted weekly uptrend).

That is why we expected these price levels to provide significant bullish rejection. However, bearish breakout shouldn't be excluded this week as signs of successive bearish pressure have already originated (successive lower highs were expressed around the price levels of 1.2290 and 1.2150.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.2330-1.2350 remains significant intraday resistance for further retesting. This zone is likely to offer a low-risk sell entry while re-testing.

Trading recommendations:

Breakdown of the recent low at 1.1940 invalidates the bullish scenario.

However, risky traders can take a counter-trend buy entry anywhere around the current price levels (1.1950) provided that daily closure doesn't occur below 1.1930. T/P is projected at 1.2100, 1.2270, and 1.2320.

On the other hand, conservative traders should wait for a bullish pullback towards the levels of 1.2300-1.2340 for a low-risk sell entry. T/P levels should be placed at 1.2220, 1.2100, and 1.1950 while S/L should be placed above 1.2250.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for May 14, 2015

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Fundamental outlook:

USD/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. It is undermined by the negative dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 93.68 versus 94.56 early Wednesday) after the US April retail sales came flat on-month (versus forecast for 0.2% increase), an unexpected drop in the US April import price index by 0.3% on-month (versus forecast +0.3%), and smaller-than-expected 0.1% on-month increase in US business inventories in March (versus forecast +0.2%). The US yield curve steepened overnight (2-year fell to 0.580% from 0.604%, 10-year rose to 2.294% from 2.247%) USD/JPY is also weighed by Japan export sales. But USD/JPY losses are tempered by demand from Japan importers and ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy.

Technical comment:
The daily chart is tilting negative as the MACD and stochastics are turning bearish, bearish parabolic stop-and-reverse signal hit on Wednesday.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 118.75. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 118.50. The pivot point stands at 119.35. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 119.70 and the second target at 120.05.

Resistance levels:
119.70
120.05
120.50

Support levels:
118.75
118.50
118

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for May 14, 2015

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Fundamental overview:

USD/CHF is expected to trade in a lower range. It is undermined by the broadly weaker dollar undertone (ICE spot dollar index last 94.56 versus 95.08 early Tuesday) amid lower US Treasury yields (10-year at 2.247% versus 2.272% late Monday) and higher oil prices (Nymex crude settled up $1.50 at $60.75/bbl on Tuesday) and fewer-than-expected 4.99 million US March job openings (versus forecast 5.1 million). But USD/CHF downside is limited by the negative Swiss interest rates and threat of the Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention.

Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bearish, but stochastic is rising from the oversold levels.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9060. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.8970. The pivot point stands at 0.9190. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9240 and the second target at 0.9295.

Resistance levels:
0.9240
0.9295
0.9345
Support levels:
0.9060
0.8970
0.89

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for May 14, 2015

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Significant supply levels located around 1.5300 (weekly 38.2% Fibonacci level) and 1.5500 (weekly 50% Fibonacci level) have been providing a significant supply over the GBP/USD pair for few months.

Evident bullish recovery emerged from the area around 1.4550 where a significant bullish engulfing weekly candlestick was expressed.

As mentioned before, persistence above the levels of 1.5000-1.5080 exposed the weekly supply zone of 1.5500-1.5550 (roughly corresponding to weekly 50% Fibonacci level), where significant bearish pressure was previously applied on February 22.

This week, the market has already pushed above the weekly supply (1.5530) and 1.5720 (FE 100%). That is why the current weekly candle closure should be monitored to determine the next destination of the pair.

Note that persistence above the weekly supply at 1.5530 hinders the long-term bearish trend for some time.

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Sideways movement with slight bearish tendency had been expressed on the daily chart until the bullish breakout took place above 1.4970-1.5000 (via a long-term bullish reversal pattern).

The price zone between 1.5000 and 1.5050 (daily 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci levels) failed to hold. Moreover, it constitutes a prominent demand level for the GBP/USD pair.

It offered a valid buy entry for retesting that took place last week. S/L can advance to 1.5500 to secure some profits now.

As already mentioned, daily closure above the weekly supply zone 1.5500-1.5530 exposed the next supply level located at 1.5720 (100% Fibonacci Expansion of the recent bullish swing).

The price zone of 1.5450-1.5500 constitutes a prominent demand zone to be watched for valid intraday buy entries if a bearish pullback occurs soon.

On the other hand, the next supply level to meet the pair is located near the level of 1.5990 (141.4% Fibonacci Expansion of the recent bullish swing) where a short-term price action should be assessed.

Risky traders can wait for a valid sell entry near 1.5990 if signs of bearish reversal are expressed on the H4 chart.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for May 14, 2015

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Fundamental overview:
NZD/USD is expected to consolidate with risks skewed higher after hitting a near-two-month low of 0.7314 this morning. NZD/USD is volatile this morning following mixed market's reaction to RBNZ's Financial Stability Report. NZD/USD is supported by the broadly weaker dollar undertone and NZD-USD interest differential. But NZD/USD gains are tempered by the heightened expectations for interest rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in coming months and kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD cross, weak dairy prices and reduced investor risk appetite.

Technical comment:
The daily chart is still negative-biased as the MACD and stochastics are bearish, although the latter is at oversold levels, five-day moving average is below 15-day moving average and is still declining.

Trading recommendations:
The pair trads above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7560 and the second target at 0.76. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7405 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.7355. The pivot point is at 0.7460.

Resistance Levels:
0.7560
0.76
0.7650

Support levels:
0.7405
0.7355
0.73

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for May 14, 2015

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The market was pushed lower after breaking below the major demand levels around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously established back in July 2012 and June 2010.

The EUR/USD pair lost almost 1,500 pips since the beginning of 2015. Moreover, EUR/USD bears have already pushed the market slightly below the monthly demand level at 1.0550 (established on January 1997).

The previous monthly closure had a negative impact on the EUR/USD pair. However, April's monthly candlestick came as a bullish engulfing candle as depicted on the chart.

This probably hinders further bearish decline for some time. On the other hand, it enhances bullish corrective movement towards 1.1500 and 1.1600 if a daily closure persists above the level of 1.1250.

In the long term, bearish breakdown of the monthly demand level at 1.0550 should not be excluded as the long-term breakout target is roughly projected towards the level of 0.9450.

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The obvious bearish breakout of the weekly demand level at 1.1100 allowed the market to fall dramatically shortly afterwards.

After such a long bearish rally (which started around the levels of 1.1300), bullish rejection was expressed at 1.0570 (monthly demand level).

The price zone between 1.1050 and 1.1150 failed to neutralize strong bullish momentum.

A bullish continuation pattern with an ascending bottom was established around the level of 1.0650.

This applied a strong bullish pressure over the prominent supply levels at 1.1150 and 1.1240. Thus, bears failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum of the EUR/USD pair.

The current daily candlestick closure should be monitored for further price analysis as daily persistence above the levels of 1.1250 and 1.1350 enhances the bullish side of the market.

The nearest daily supply level comes to meet the EUR/USD pair around the level of 1.1500 if the currently expressed bullish momentum is maintained above 1.1370 (corresponding to the previous weekly high).

On the other hand, failure to close above 1.1370 indicates further sideways movement without significant bullish advancement.

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for May 14, 2015

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Fundamental outlook:
GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. This movement is supported by the demand from Japan importers. But GBP/JPY upside is limited by the Japan export sales and decreased investor risk appetite. Sterling sentiment is boosted by the stronger-than-expected 0.5% on-month, 0.7% on-year increase in UK March industrial production (versus forecast +0.1% on-month, +0.1% on-year).

Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bullish, but stochastics is bearish at overbought levels.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 186.65. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 186. The pivot point stands at 188.60. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 189.20 and the second target at 189375.

Resistance levels:
189.20
189.75
190.35

Support levels:
186.65
186
185.25

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EUR/NZD analysis for May 14, 2015

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Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD has been trading upwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of 1.5251 in a high volume. The short-term trend is bullish. Our target at 1.5155 (Fibonacci retracement 50%) has been reached and we can observe bearish corrective phase in progress. According to the daily time frame, we can observe weak supply in the background, which caused the price to start moving upwards. Watch for potential buying opportunities on the dips. The price rejected from our support level at the price of 1.5000 (Fibonacci retracement 50%). If the price breaks the level of 1.5310 (price action resistance), we may see possible testing of the level of 1.5450.

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.5260

R2: 1.5320

R3: 1.5400

Support levels:

S1: 1.5080

S2: 1.5020

S3: 1.4930

Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling EUR/NZD and watch for potential buying opportunities after a retracement.

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Gold analysis for May 14, 2015

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Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of $1,218.72 in an ultra high volume. We can observe demand in an ultra high volume and strong price action in the daily time frame. The short-term trend is bullish. The first major resistance level at the price of $1,220.00 is on the test. If the price breaks the level of $1,220.00 in a high volume and strong price action, we may see possible testing of the level of $1,250.00 (Fibonacci expansion 100%). Be careful when selling and watch for potential buying opportunities above the price of $1,220.00.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,220.00

R2: 1,226.40

R3: 1,237.00

Support levels:

S1: 1,198.30

S2: 1,191.65

S3: 1,180.50

Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling gold at this stage and watch for potential buying opportunities (buy on dips).

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for May 14, 2015

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair will continue its movement straight from the level of 0.7418 on the H4 chart. The level of 0.7418 is coinciding with the ratio of 23.6% of Fibonacci retracement levels. Therefore, the pair is showing signs of bullish market above this support, so it will be a good sign to buy above the level of 23.6% of Fibonacci retracement levels with the first target of 0.7531 and further to 0.7581 in order to test the golden ratio (61.8% of Fibonacci retaracement). Besides, it should be noted that the price of 0.7581 will act as a minor resistance for that it is going to be a good place to take profit today. However, in case if a reversal takes place and NZD/USD breaks through the support level of 0.7418, the market will be lead to further decline to 0.8550 with a view to indicate a bearish market below the level of 0.7410. Consequently, the price of the NZD/USD pair is going to move between 0.7581 and 0.7418. As a result, sell below the level of 0.7581 in the long term with the first target at 0.7418. If the trend can break the double bottom at 0.7418, it might resume to 0.7368.

Intraday technical levels:

  • Projected high: 0.9693
  • Strong resistance (sell limit): 0.7581
  • Current pivot: 0.7515
  • Strong support (buy limit): 0.7418
  • Projected low: 0.7368
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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for May 14, 2015

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Overview:

  • Taking into account the previous events, the last double bottom has been set at the level of 0.9072 and support is placed at the same level on May 14, 2015. Additionally, the USD/CHF pair has been still trading between 0.9072 and 0.9196. Besides, the key level is set at 0.9272 because it is representing strong support and is coinciding with the last bottom of the USD/CHF pair on the H1 chart. Equally important, the double top will form the last bearish wave. As it is know, history will probably repeat itself at this level again. Afterwards, it will be a good sign to buy above 0.90272 with the first target of 0.9135. Furthermore, it will call for an uptrend in order to continue its bullish movement towards 0.9196 (23.6% of Fibonacci retracement levels at the same time frame). However, the stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts, so the stop loss should be placed below 0.9072, at the price of 0.9033. On the other hand, if the trend does not fail to close below the level of 0.9033, It will call for a downtrend with a view to continue its bearish movement towards 0.9005 to form a new double bottom. In the same way, it should be noted that the price of 0.9005 is going to represent the weekly support 1
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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for May 14, 2015

General overview for 14/05/2015 10:20 CET

As anticipated, the last wave down in the overall corrective structure of wave 4 green labeled as wave (c) blue might have been completed and now the market is ready for a trend resumption. Nevertheless, the price must break out higher above the intraday resistance at the level of 1.1978 to support this view and move even higher to test (and possibly break) the golden trend line.

Support/Resistance:

1.1918 - Swing Low | Intrday Support |

1.1964 - WS1

1.1978 - Intraday Resistance

1.2073 - Weekly Pivot

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders and swingtraders should consider to open buy orders from current market levels with SL below the level of 1.1917 and TP at the level of 1.1978. Please notice that more upward progression is possibe if this level is violated. So, a trailing stop loss might be very handy to lock some profits on the way up.

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#USDX technical analysis for May 14, 2015

Our bullish expectations and view was canceled yesterday by the new lows we saw in the chart. The rejection at 95.30 was important and it proved that the trend remained bearish. However, if you recall, my Head and Shoulders pattern target was at 93.50-93. So, that we have reached the target I still believe that we could see a reversal. What are the signs of the reversal?

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Green line = neckline

Red horizontal line = target level

Red downward sloping lines = bearish channel

The Dollar index remains below the cloud resistance. The trend remains bearish. The price needs to break above the cloud to confirm changes in the trend . Short-term resistance is found at 93.75 and at 94.20. Medium-term resistance is at 95.30. This is the most critical level. Support is at 93 and at 92.30 where the 38% retracement of the entire 2014 rise is found.

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The Dollar index has broken below the kijun-sen, but with two more days left for the weekly candle to close. Bulls still have hopes for immediate reversal to the upside. Next support is at 92.30 where the 38% retracement is found. Reversal to the upside will be confirmed if price breaks above the tenkan-sen at 96.75.




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Gold technical analysis for May 14, 2015

Gold price has been pushed sharply towards the resistance at $1,220 occording to our triangle scenario. Now, it is time for Gold to reverse lower towards $1,190 again. Gold price is trapped inside a consolidation area forming a triangle. Unless Gold price breaks above $1,224, a downward move will be more probable.

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Red lines = triangle

Blue lines = expected price path

Gold price is back above the Ichimoku cloud now and the triangle scenario I posted yesterday assumes the price will fall towards the lower triangle boundaries. Gold price has found strong resistance at $1,224 and strong support at $1,175. A breakout of any of them will give us a sharp move towards $1,250 or $1,130-40 respectively.

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The weekly chart remains trapped inside the range between the kijun- and tenkan-sen. Gold price is testing the kijun-sen and the cloud resistance as last week the price closed above the tenkan-sen (red line). A rejection at current levels is likely to a bearish signal that will bring Gold price back towards the tenkan-sen. On the other hand, if the price breaks above $1,224, we will test $1,250 which is the upper boundary of the cloud resistance.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for May 14, 2015

General overview for 14/05/2015 10:10 CET

The latest count had been slightly changed to incorporate the latest wave up labeled as wave (v) green. This wave is still incomplete as it looks like it needs one more sub-cycle higher to finish the impulsive sequence and reverse lower. Please notice that bearish divergence has been formed between the price and the momentum oscillator. This fact supports our view. A breakout below the intraday support at the level of 135.46 would be another confirmation.

Support/Resistance:

134.34 - Weekly Pivot

135.46 - Intraday Support

135.59 - WR1

135.97 - Intraday Resistance

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders and swingtraders should consider opening sell orders after a new high is made and the impulsive structure is completed.

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Technical analysis of Silver for May 14, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver has broken above the consolidation range as expected and is trading at $17.20 for now. The metal can drop to $16.90 before rallying towards fresh highs. Also note that the resistance turned support line is also around $16.80/90. It is hence recommended to remain long for now with risk at $16.00. Immediate support is seen at the level of $16.20/30 followed by $15.80, $15.30, and lower, while resistance is seen at $17.40/50 followed by $18.40/50 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long for now, stop at $16.00, a target is open.

Good luck!


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Technical analysis of Gold for May 14, 2015.

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold finally broke above its consolidation yesterday. It also took out the first resistance at $1,215.00 as seen here. The metal is expected to retrace lower towards $1,205.00, which is resistance turned support trend-line passing before printing fresh highs. It is recommended to remain long with risk at $1,180.00 for now. Immediate support is seen at $1,178.00 followed by $1,170.00, $1,162.00, and lower, while resistance is seen at $1,25.00 followed by $1,235.00/45.00 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long for now, stop at $1,180.00, a target is open.

Good luck!


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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for May 14, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/CHF pair has dropped close to the level of 1.4400 after printing highs at 1.4600 yesterday. The pair has tested the resistance trend-line twice before reversing sharply as seen here. Bears are expected to remain in control untill prices stay below the level of 1.4600. It is hence recommended to hold short positions and also look to build fresh with risk at 1.4650. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.4600 followed by 1.4700, 1.4800,1.4950, and higher, while support is seen at 1.4300/30 followed by 1.4150 and lower respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short for now, stop at 1.4650, a target is open.

Good luck!


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for May 14, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY pair is trading around 135.30/40 now preparing to drop lower in the sessions to come. The pair is expected to remain in control of bears until prices stay below the level of 136.00 from here on. It is hence recommended to remain short and look to add further positions with risk around 136.30/40. Immediate support is seen at 133.00 levels followed by 131.50, 129.00, and lower, while resistance is seen at 136.00/50 followed by 137.00 and higher respectively.The pair might be setting up for a deeper correction before resuming its rally.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short for now, stop at 136.40, a target is open.

Good luck!


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for May 14, 2015

The pair has been making lower highs in the four-hour chart. The pair made multi-lows between 1.1978 and 1.1940, which was broken yesterday. A new low was pointed to 1.1929. At yesterday's session, we expected the price to move towards 1.1900, 1.1870, and even1.1800 in case a closure below 1.1940. The support is found at 1.1870 and 1.175020Dema. We have been recommending selling with sl 1.2350 with a target at 1.1870. The strong resistance is seen at 1.2350. Bears have the upper hand in the medium term. For last 16 hours, the pair has been testing lower levels, not a good sign for bulls. Intraday resistance is seen at 1.2025 and 1.2065. Strong momentum is expected above 1.2070 towards 1.2110 and 1.2140. Ahead of unemployment data, USD is trading higher against CAD.

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Technical analysis of USDX & USD/JPY for May 14, 2015

Analysis of USDX

Weak US data pushed the USDX to lower levels. The US retails sales data missed the expectations again . In the four-hour chart, support is found at 93.46 and 93.10. Lower levels yet to come for 93.25 and 93.00 in the near term and 92.00 later.

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USD/JPY

USD has been softening in the recent days. USD is trading higher against JPY. The recent USD rally against JPY, CAD, SGD, and CHF failed the bullish view in the near term. But only this pair has been sustaining in the structural bullish view. As we expected yesterday, before the price inches above 120.30, it is likely to re-test 119.60 and 119.40 today. So, we might see sub 119.00. The pair made a low at 119.00. The intraday trading pattern is framed between 119.00 and 119.40. In case today's US data turns to be on the positive side, we request buying above 119.40 with a small target at 119.70. If not, we can see 118.85 and 118.60. The real problem for bulls is seen at 118.50 100Dema. The pair probably made a double bottom at 118.50 and 118.30. In case we see the pair around 119.00, small risky trade will be available for bulls. We recommend buying between 119.00 and 118.60 sl 118.50 closing basis or 118.30 intraday. This is just a hope trade, the probability is remote. The same strategy has been working well for bulls for a while.

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Technical analysis of GBP/AUD for May 14, 2015

The pound is trading higher against USD but lower against the crosses. The cross made a double to at 1.9762 and changed the direction. The cross has been falling for 3 consecutive days. At yesterday's session, the cross closed below 20 & 50Dsma. The cross has been making higher lows formation for 8 consecutive months. At today's Asian session, the aussie is trading higher against GBP. On Tuesday, we recommended both buying and selling opportunities. We recommend intraday selling below 1.9645. The pair made a low at 1.9306. The nearest support is found at 1.9270 20Wsma. Bulls need to close above 1.9270, otherwise another 200 pips will be wiped out (like 1.9100, 1.9050, and 1.8975). We recommend fresh selling below 1.9268. At the Asian session, AUD is trading higher against GBP.

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Technical analysis of EUR/AUD for May 14, 2015

The aussie has been developing divergence moves against the euro and pound. AUD, which is a commodity currency, is trading lower against GBP and higher against the euro. Traders eye Greece updates as the euro is getting weaker. The uncertainty between Greece and creditors weighs on the euro. The cross EUR/AUD moved lower from a high of 1.5337 made in December 2014. The cross has been developing lower lows and lower highs in all time frames. The cross made a double top at 1.4360 changed the direction towards. At Tuesday's session, we recommend selling below 1.4080 with immediate targets at 1.4050, 1.4030, and 1.4000. If it closes below1.4030/1.4000, real panic is likely to loom towards 1.3970 and 1.3850/1.3820. As of now, the cross made a low at 1.3949. Until the cross closes above 1.4035, use every rise to sell for the targets at 1.3900 and 1.3830. Bulls' last hope lies at 1.3685 50Msma and 200Wsma. In case the price closes below 1.3685, bears can challenge another 300 pips on the downside (1.3310).

Intraday view: The nearest support is found at 1.3965 and 1.3949. We recommend selling with immediate targets at 1.3900 and 1.3860. The real panic will ignite below 1.3860.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for May 14, 2015

Comparing the estimates for January to March 2015 with those for October to December 2014, the employment rate continued to rise and unemployment rate continued to fall. The proportion of the economically active population who were unemployed (the unemployment rate) was 5.5%, lower than 5.7% for October to December 2014 and 6.8% for a year earlier. In the period from January to March 2015, earnings in Great Britain increased by 1.9% including bonuses and by 2.2% compared with the previous year.

After election, the pound rose more than 4% against USD. The soft US data have been putting pressure on the USD in the recent months. The strength in the pound made the BoE to change its inflation forecast. The BoE downgraded the inflation growth forecast through 2017. We think the GBP is likely to rally in the near term.

Technical view: The cable moved above a 5-month high. A couple of facts have been supporting the pound in moving higher. The cable made a high at 1.5769. Today at the Asian session, the pound is trading at 1.5737 compared to 1.5746 Wednesday's closing against USD. In the four-hour chart, higher highs and higher lows formation are expanding. At yesterday's session we recommended fresh buying above 1.5715 (like 1.5830, 1.5860, 1.5900, and finally 1.5975). The cable made a high at 1.5769. In the daily chart, the cable managed to close all the moving averages at all-time intervals.

Key support: 200Dsma 1.5625 200Dema 1.5540.

Intraday view: We expect profit booking at 1.5800/1.5830 and re-test towards the support at 1.5560. We expect a near-term top to be placed in this week. In the four-hour chart, negative divergence remains in play. We expect the cable to test the levels of 1.5550/1.5500.In the hourly chart, the price has been consolidating for 8 long hours between 1.5728 and 1.5754. For an intraday view safe buying is seen above 1.5770 with targets at 1.5800 and 1.5830. We recommend selling below 1.5720 with targets at 1.5700 and 1.5660.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for May 14, 2015

France:

Prelim GDP q/q - in the Q1 of 2015, the French GDP showed a great increase: +0.6% after 0.0% for the previous period. Household consumption expenditure accelerated (+0.8% after +0.1%) in first three months of 2015. Goods and services production rose by 0.7% in the Q1 after a stagnation at the end of 2014.

CPI - Consumer prices increased by 0.1% in April 2015.

Germany:

GDP-The German economy continued to grow at a slightly slower pace. The Federal Statistical Office reports that the gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.3% in the first quarter of 2015 compared with 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2014.

CPI - Consumer prices in Germany rose by 0.5% in April 2015 compared with April 2014. The inflation rate increased for the third consecutive month. However, it was at a low level again. The consumer price index in April 2015 remained unchanged compared with March 2015.

WPI- As reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), the selling prices in wholesale trade decreased by 0.9% in April 2015 from the corresponding month of the preceding year. In February 2015 and in March 2015, the annual rates of change were –2.1% and –1.1%, respectively.

EURO

FLASH GDP q/q - Flash estimate for the first quarter of 2015 GDP is up by 0.4% in the euro area and the EU +1.0% and +1.4% respectively compared with the first quarter of 2014.

Technical view: The euro soared higher against USD and managed to close above the previous resistance levels at yesterday's session. But the pair was unable to breach the previous high of 1.1392. At today's Asian session, the euro is trading lower against USD. The pair has made a double high at 1.1383 in the four hour chart. We expect another strong momentum above 1.1395 towards 1.1450. The German yields rose for the first time in 15 months. To retain the current strength, bulls need to close above 1.1400. Otherwise, bears can challenge towards the support zone between1.1160 20Wsma and 1.1070 20Dsma. A strong base is found between 1.1050 and 1.1030. The long-term picture favors bears. The divergence between ECB and FED favors bears too. In case of Grexit, the euro will be diminished.

Intraday view: Intraday support is found at 1.1330 and 1.1270. Resistance is seen at the previous high of 1.1392. Safe buying is expected above 1.1392 with possible upside 1.1410 and 1.1450. It can stretch towards 1.1475. We expect this week's high to be placed between 1.1450/1.1475. On the down side, selling pressure will be built below 1.1290 towards 1.1260, 1.1220, and 1.1205.

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Technical analysis of Gold for May 14, 2015

The yellow metal gave strong momentum after 2 weeks of consolidation in a tight range. The weak US data pushed the metal towards $1,218.00. Gold managed to close above $1,200.00. The US retail sales turned to be flat. This made USD softer and helped the metal price to spike. Today, traders eye unemployment claims.At yesterday's session, the metal spiked to $1,218.00 exactly rejected at 138.2 FE and 200Dsma. If today the US delivers disappointing data, we can see $1,223.50 and $1,226.00 initially. The major resistance zone seems between $1,219.00 and $1,223.00. The previous swing high is found at $1,223.80. In case the previous swing is taken off, we expect big spikes to continue in the near term. We can observe positive divergence in the weekly chart. This week, the metal managed to trade above 20Wsma $1,211.00. A daily close is seed above $1,224.00. We expect $1,233.00 to be reached in a day or two. At yesterday's session, we recommended buying above $1,200.00. Today, buyers can bid safe above $1,220.00 with small targets at $1,223.00 and $1,224.00, later $1,230.00 and $1,233.00. Support is found at $1,211.00 and $1,207.00. Risky traders can sell below $1,210.00 and safe traders can sell below $1,208.00 with immediate targets at $1,205.00 and $1,200.00, and later targets at 1195.00 and 1190.00. The majors EUR/USD and GBP/USD managed to close above 20Wsma. In case gold manages to close above 20Wsma $1,211.00, we expect $1,233.00,$1,244.00, and $1,250.00 to be hit in coming weeks.

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Daily analysis of USDX for May 14, 2015

On the daily chart, the current levels are very crucial for the current trend development, because it's trying to break the support zone of 93.95 in order to reach 92.64, the key level which has not been visited since the beginning of the year. Now, the bearish bias is favoring this view and we could expect more room to fall in the coming days.

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On the H1 chart, the USDX is forming a bearish pattern below the resistance level of 93.85, after a dramatic fall from the level of 94.70, which is very close to the 200 SMA. There is still a strong bearish risk alive in our short-term outlook. Also, the USDX is still trading in favor of the overall structure in the short and mid term. The MACD indicator is in positive territory. So, be cautious anyway.

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Daily chart's resistance levels: 93.95 / 95.00

Dailychart's support levels: 92.64 / 91.41

H1 chart's resistance levels: 93.85 / 94.70

H1 chart's support levels: 93.07 / 92.37



Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 93.07, take profit is at 92.37, and stop loss is at 93.80.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for May 14, 2015

The bullish bias seems to remain very strong for GBP/USD, but the daily chart structure tells us about the possibility of lack of momentum regarding bulls strength. That is why we could expect some higher high pattern below the resistance zone of 1.5745 on this time frame. The 200 SMA is currently neutral.

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The short-term outlook is very bullish and has not showed overbought signs at the MACD yet. By the way, a pullback is expected to take place in the coming hours, as the pair is currently overbought in lower time frames (at least in M30, within the last hours). The 200 SMA is pointing to the upside and the bullish swing is still alive.

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Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5745 / 1.5907

Dailychart's support levels: 1.5543 / 1.5371

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5794 / 1.5882

H1 chart's support levels: 1.5706 / 1.5597



Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is seen at 1.5794, take profit is at 1.5882, and stop loss is at 1.5706.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for May 14, 2015

EUR/USD: The strength in EUR is very important as that it keeps the EUR/USD pair (as well as certain EUR pairs) strong. It also keeps the USD/CHF under selling pressure. The price has already moved upwards by 230 pips this week and the resistance line at 1.1400 is likely to be tested easily.

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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF pair plunged further south as a result of weakness in USD. The price has dropped by 170 pips, almost testing the support line at 0.9150. Today, news releases would affect USD and would have some impact on this pair.

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GBP/USD: The Cable has moved upward by around 340 pips this week. Any bearish retracements here would provide bulls with opportunities to enter the market at lower prices while the major trend is bullish. The trend is not over until it is actually over.

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USD/JPY: This currency trading instrument is moving in a clear direction now – thanks to the weakness in the USD. The price has crossed the EMA 56 to the downside and the RSI period 14 is below the level of 50. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart. The price could fall below the notorious demand level at 119.00.

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EUR/JPY: One thing is clear: this cross cannot drop significantly as long as EUR is strong. There is still a clean bullish signal for the cross and the supply zones at 136.00 and 136.50 could be tested. There are also demand zones at 133.50 and 133.00.

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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for May 13, 2015

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Overview:

On March 2, bearish breakdown of the lower limit of the previous daily channel occurred enhancing the bearish side of the market.

Persistence below the zone of 1.4950-1.5000 indicated a further bearish decline towards 1.4700.

Shortly after, the bearish trend was resumed towards the level of 1.4550 where a lower daily bottom was established.

Evident bullish recovery emerged at 1.4560 pushing the GBP/USD pair above the level of 1.4700. Since then, successive higher highs have been established.

As anticipated, daily closure above 1.5060 (50% Fibonacci level) exposed the next resistance levels at 1.5400 and 1.5450 where extensive bearish pressure was previously applied.

Persistence below 1.5300 (the lower limit of the H4 channel) enhanced the bearish side of the market towards the levels of 1.5300, 1.5250 and 1.5100 where a significant bullish swing was initiated on May 5.

Note that Intraday Support 1 (price level of 1.5400) is now the most prominent support level to be watched for buy entries when further bearish pullback occurs.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.5750-1.5800 is a critical RESISTANCE zone to be watched for signs of bearish reversal and a possible SELL entry if enough bearish rejection is expressed.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for May 13, 2015

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Overview:

Since bulls pushed the price further above the upper limit of both depicted bullish channels and the 79.6% Fibonacci level, the market looked quite overbought. That is why the market failed to hold above 1.2650 - 1.2680 (previous highs) resulting in the formation of a triple-top pattern.

Successive lower highs were established within the depicted consolidation zone enhancing the bearish side of the market.

Support levels around 1.2350 and 1.2300 (79.6% Fibonacci level) were broken after providing significant support for several weeks on the daily and weekly charts.

Daily fixation below 1.2300 cleared the way for the USD/CAD pair towards the levels of 1.2000 and 1.1940 (projection target of the recent range breakout and the depicted weekly uptrend).

That is why we expected these price levels to provide significant bullish rejection. However, WEEKLY bearish breakout shouldn't be excluded by the end of this week as signs of bearish pressure have already originated (successive lower highs were expressed around the price zone of 1.2100-1.2150).

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.2330-1.2350 remains a significant intraday resistance zone for further retesting. This zone is likely to offer a low-risk sell entry while retesting.

Trading recommendations:

Risky traders could can take a BUY entry anywhere around the current price levels (1.1950). T/P is projected at 1.2100, 1.2270 and 1.2320.

Note that breakdown of the recent low at 1.1940 replaces the bullish scenario with a bearish breakout one with projection target located at 1.1750.

On the other hand, conservative traders should wait for a bullish pullback towards the price zone of 1.2300-1.2340 for a low-risk sell entry. T/P levels should be placed at 1.2220, 1.2100, and 1.1950 while S/L should be placed above 1.2250.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for May 13, 2015

cadweekllyy.png1431531215_caddailly.png

Overview:

Since bulls pushed the price further above the upper limit of both depicted bullish channels and the 79.6% Fibonacci level, the market looked quite overbought. That is why the market failed to hold above 1.2650 - 1.2680 (previous highs) resulting in the formation of a Triple-top pattern.

Successive lower highs were established within the depicted consolidation zone enhancing the bearish side of the market.

Support levels around 1.2350 and 1.2300 (79.6% Fibonacci level) were broken after providing significant support for several weeks on the daily and weekly charts.

Daily fixation below 1.2300 cleared the way for the USD/CAD pair towards the levels of 1.2000 and 1.1940 (projection target of the recent range breakout and the depicted weekly uptrend).

That is why we expected these price levels to provide significant bullish rejection. However, bearish breakout shouldn't be excluded this week as signs of evident bearish pressure have already originated(successive lower highs were expressed around the price zone of 1.2100-1.2150).

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.2330-1.2350 remains a significant intraday resistance zone for further retesting. This zone is likely to offer a low-risk sell entry while retesting.

Trading recommendations:

Risky traders could can take a BUY entry anywhere around the current price levels (1.1950). T/P is projected at 1.2100, 1.2270 and 1.2320.

Note that breakdown of the recent low at 1.1940 invalidates this bullish scenario.

On the other hand, conservative traders should wait for a bullish pullback towards the price zone of 1.2300-1.2340 for a low-risk sell entry. T/P levels should be placed at 1.2220, 1.2100, and 1.1950 while S/L should be placed above 1.2250.

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