EUR/CHF analysis for October 25, 2017

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Recently, the EUR/CHF has been upwards. The price tested the level of 1.1698. Anyway, according to the 15M time - frame, I found triangle formation in creation, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found a fake breakout of pivot resistance 1, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities if the price breaks triangle. The downward target is set at the price of 1.1627.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1686

R2: 1.1720

R3: 1.1778

Support levels:

S1: 1.1595

S2: 1.1535

S3: 1.1503

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Gold: "Bears" require the continuation of the banquet

The renewal of the October low will increase the risks of continuing the southern campaign of XAU / USD pair. The "bears" are inspired for XAU / USD for new attacks because of the victory of Shinzo Abe's party in the parliamentary elections in Japan, the departure into the shadows of the North Korean issue, the strong dollar and the growth of the yield of US Treasury bonds. Sellers of precious metals are seriously set to update the October low near the mark $1260 for an ounce and continue the peak towards the psychologically important level of $1200.

Gold was not able to compete with income-producing bonds. On one side, strengthening the dollar leads to a rise in the cost of imports in the countries which includes the key consumers of the physical asset. In this regard, the growth rate of 10-year US debt obligations to the maximum mark for the previous 7 months and the USD index to the August peaks are serious arguments in favor of selling the XAU/USD pair. Moreover, the world stock indexes are not tired of rewriting records. Hence, the liberal democracy democrats in Japan allowed the Nikkei 225 to reach a 21-year high, contributing to the growth of USD / JPY to the level of 114. The market is seeking refuge for their assets amid the conditions of decreasing uncertainty in the Land of the Rising Sun and de-escalation of the conflict in North Korea. They have been aggressively disposed of, which increases the risks of continuation precious metal of the southern trend.

Dynamics of USD / JPY and gold

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Source: Bloomberg.

Strengthening the dollar and raising the rates of the US debt market is supported by news from the U.S. whereby, it increased sharply the chances of realizing the tax reform after passing the draft budget for the next fiscal year. It is able to disperse the US economy to 3% or more, which increases the likelihood of a more rapid tightening of the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve in 2018. The market is almost confident that the Central Bank will raise the rate on federal funds in December. Therefore, it will continue to be under pressure before the year ends.

The future fate will depend on the opinion of the derivatives market on the relative future rate trajectory of the Fed. Currently, the derivatives are expected to be at 1.8% by the end of 2018, which involves two acts of monetary restriction. Nevertheless, the indicator may shift to 2.3% (4 acts) if the head of the Fed is taken by Kevin Warsh or John Taylor, according to Nordea research. Short-term gold may respond to the chances of victory of Janet Yellen or Jerome Powell, but the resumption of the S&P 500 rally gives the potential of the bullish correction for XAU / USD limited.

Thus, there are "bearish" sentiments in the precious metal market, but there are also optimists. In particular, the Bank of Russia bought 34 tons in September, which was the most serious result since October 2016. At the end of 9 months, 163 tons were purchased, and the total value of gold reserves increased to 57.2 million ounces.

Technically, the inability of bulls in gold to keep quotes above an important level of $ 1,280 per ounce indicates their weakness. In case of updating the October low near the $ 1260 mark, the pattern AB = CD with a target of 200% will be activated. It corresponds to the area $ 1210-1215.

Gold, daily chart

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Global macro overview for 25/10/2017

Global macro overview for 25/10/2017:

The Bank of Canada Overnight Rate decision will be published today. The market participants expect BoC to keep the overnight rate a 1.0%. With the decision, a Monetary Policy Report will be published with an update of economic forecasts. The BoC press conference is scheduled at 03:15 pm GMT.After two rate hikes of 25 bps in a row in July and September now it was time to pause. The latest comments from BoC indicate this. President Poloz reminded that there is no "mechanical approach" to monetary policy and the bank is in "intensive mode of subject data". Without a doubt, the Bank needs to assess the impact of recent tightening on the economy, credit conditions, and appreciation of CAD, and these are not yet seen. In addition, last week's blow to sentiment was disappointing data on consumption and prices. In August, retail sales fell unexpectedly by 0.3%. m / m, erasing a good result from July. September CPI at 1.6%. y / y fell below the expected 1.7 percent. (with an inflation target of 2%). Earlier, the survey of business sentiment showed a decline in employment and investment trends.

Disappointing retail and inflation data have ruled out a third overnight rate hike in a row. The Bank of Canada needs time to assess its impact on the economy but remains in hawkish. It is doubtful, however, that the bank will commit itself to a further increase in December.

Let's now take a look at the USD/CAD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The bulls have managed to break out above the technical resistance at the level of 1.2662 and just before the interest rate decision, the price is heading towards the next technical resistance at the level of 1.2777 in overbought market conditions. Nevertheless, if BoC will decide not to hike the interest rate today, the level of 1.2777 will likely be tested and possibly even broken.

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Global macro overview for 25/10/2017

Global macro overview for 25/10/2017:

Australia's September quarter consumer price inflation (CPI) report has come in well below expectations. The market participants expected an increase from 0.2% to 0.8%, but according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), headline CPI rose by 0.6% over the September quarter. On a yearly basis, the CPI decreased from 1.9% to 1.8% as well. The quarterly increase was driven by higher utility, tobacco, and travel prices, offsetting weakness in vegetable, fuel and telecommunication costs. The most significant rises relate to electricity (8.9%) and gas prices, with increases in wholesale prices being passed on to consumers. On the other hand, the most significant negative contributors are vegetables and automotive fuel.

In the result, the underlying inflation rose only by 0.35%, leaving the annual rate at 1.88%. The global investors were looking for a quarterly increase of 0.5%, leaving the year-on-year rate at 2%.In this situation, the Reserve Bank of Australia inflation target of 2.0% has not been reached yet, so any talk of a near-term interest rate increase from the RBA is now postponed until better data will be delivered.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has broken below the key technical support at the level of 0.7732 and now is trading in extremely oversold conditions. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 0.7713, but with such a strong downward momentum, this level might be violated as well. The next key technical support is seen at the level of 0.7570.

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USD/JPY analysis for October 25, 2017

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Recently, the USD/JPY has been upwards. The price tested the level of 114.24. According to the 15M time - frame, I found that buyers are in control and price is trading above the pivot level (113.72). I also found successful testing of supply in a rising market, which is another good indicator for further upward movement. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of 114.50 (R2) and 114.95 (R3, extreme intraday target).

Resistance levels:

R1: 114.20

R2: 114.50

R3: 114.95

Support levels:

S1: 113.42

S2: 112.95

S3: 112.65

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for October 25, 2017

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Daily Outlook

A recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards next price zones around 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) and 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

The recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhanced the bearish side of the market. This brought the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) which failed to pause the ongoing bearish momentum.

An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart indicating a high probability of bearish reversal.

Bearish persistence below the neckline 0.7150 confirms the reversal pattern. Next bearish targets are located around 0.7050, 0.6925 and eventually 0.6800.

As expected, the price level of 0.7050 offered temporary bullish support before bearish breakdown could take place. That's why the further bearish decline should be expected towards 0.6925 and eventually 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish targets).

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for October 25, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allowed a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where recent evidence of bearish rejection was expressed (Note the previous Monthly candlestick of September).

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend reversed when the Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, an evident bullish breakout is being witnessed on the chart. The next Supply level to meet the pair is located around 1.2100 (Level of previous multiple bottoms) where bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry were offered (Note the depicted reversal pattern).

On the other hand, If the current bearish breakout persists below 1.1800 and 1.1700 (Neckline of the reversal pattern), a quick bearish decline should be expected towards the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 (bearish targets of the depicted H&S pattern).

Trade Recommendations

Bullish pullback towards the price zone of 1.1835-1.1850 (the backside of the broken uptrend line) should be considered for a valid SELL entry.

Initial T/P level should be placed at 1.1550. S/L should be placed above 1.1950.

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Bitcoin analysis for October 25, 2017

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $5.358. A parliamentary audit of the Bank of Korea revealed that it has done "poor" research on digital currencies including bitcoin and ether. The central bank's governor told lawmakers that digital currency is not currency and promised to conduct more research on this topic. The intraday technical picture looks bearish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 15M time frame, I found broken pivot level at the price of $5.677, which is a sign that sellers are in control. I also found broken intraday rising wedge, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $5.430 (S1) and $5.2870 (S2)

Support/Resistance

$5.677 – Pivot level

$5.430 – Pivot point support 1

$5.280 – Pivot point support 2

$8.827 – Pivot point resistance 1

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/CAD for October 25, 2017

USD/CAD is recently quite low in liquidity having very little volatility in the market this week ahead of the CAD Rate Statement and Overnight Rate report. Today there is a number of high impact economic reports is going to be published on CAD which is expected to inject high volatility in the market which is expected to disclose further directional move in this pair. Recently USD has been quite dominant over CAD with the positive economic reports whereas CAD was struggling to make a push. Today, CAD BOC Monetary Policy Report and BOC Rate Statement are going to be held which is expected to be hawkish in nature which is expected to help CAD to gain momentum against USD for the coming days. Along with these important economic events, CAD Overnight Rate is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 1.0% and Later BOC Press Conference is going to be held to discuss the rate decisions and future monetary policies of the country. On the USD side, today Core Durable Goods Orders report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 0.5%, Durable Goods Orders report is expected to decrease to 1.0% from the previous value of 2.0%, HPI report is expected to increase to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.2%, New Home Sales report is expected to decrease to 555k from the previous figure of 560k and Crude Oil Inventories is expected to show some positive changes with less deficit to -2.6M from the previous figure of -5.7M. As of the current scenario, today the pair is expected to be quite volatile today because both currencies in this pair have several high impact economic reports and events to be held today. If the CAD economic reports come out to be positive there is higher chance that the long term bearish trend will continue to push the price lower in the future. As the general comparison of recent economic reports, USD is expected to have an upper hand over CAD with the economic reports today.

Now let us look at the technical view, price has recently quite bullish in nature which has been supported by the 1.2450 support level and dynamic level of 20 EMA. This week the bullish momentum was quite low which is expected to show a good amount of volatility today after the high impact economic reports gets published. Currently it is expected that the price will head towards 1.2770 to 1.2820 resistance area before pushing lower towards 1.2450 again in the future. A good amount of spike is expected in the market today which is expected to unfold the upcoming directional move in this pair. As the price remains above 1.2450 support level the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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Fundamental analysis of EUR/JPY for October 25, 2017

EUR/JPY has been impulsively bullish recently after bouncing off the 131.70-132.50 support area. EUR has been quite dominant over JPY recently due to positive economic reports from the Eurozone and hawkish statements from the ECB which helped the currency to maintain gains. European economic reports were quite mixed this week but they helped the currency to have stable bullish momentum in the pair. Today the German IFO Business Climate report was published with an increase to 116.7 which was expected to be unchanged at 115.2. The positive economic report helped EUR to extend the impulsive bullish momentum and push the price higher. On the other hand, Japan has been quite negative with the economic reports including the Flash Manufacturing PMI showing a decrease to 52.5 from the previous figure of 52.9 which was expected to increase to 53.1. Besides, on Friday the National Core CPI report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 0.7%. The Tokyo Core CPI report is also expected to be unchanged at 0.5%. To sum up, EUR has been quite stable with the economic reports but JPY is quite weaker as JPY has been losing some grounds against EUR recently. As of the current situation, EUR is expected to gain good momentum in the coming days because on Thursday the ECB Press Conference is going to be held along with the Minimum Bid Rate report which is expected to be unchanged at 0.0%. The high-impact economic events are expected to inject good amount of volatility in the market whereas EUR is expected to have an upper hand over JPY in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The pair is currently residing at the edge of the resistance area of 134.50. The price is also hovering above the dynamic level of 20 EMA which is acting as a support to push the price higher in the coming days. If it breaks above 134.50 resistance area with a daily close, then we will be looking forward to buy with a target towards 137.50 in the future. As the price remains above 132 support area, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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Bitcoin analysis for 25/10/2017

Bitcoin analysis for 25/10/2017:

Japan is now the cryptocurrency superpower, accounting for about 63% of Bitcoin's worldwide turnover. However, bans introduced in other Asian countries are alarming investors fearing that it might happen to Japan as well. Japan recognizes Bitcoin as a legal means of payment and is, therefore, the largest user of this cryptocurrency. Japan's approach is very good for any ICO. According to Kagayaki Kawabata, head of international development at Coincheck, the demand for tokens on their exchange increased after China ban.

Bitcoins and other cryptocurrencies need to be regulated. This was the reason why South Korea and China decided to ban them. Co-founder of IndiesSquare, Kogi Higashi, said Japan has a positive attitude to the digital currency adding later that regulators are watching whether the changes are good or bad and may introduce regulations in the future. By referring to Forbes magazine, Higashi is still optimistic about the ICO and believes that the ICO can become a revolution, giving Japan the upper hand in attracting investment. Various companies in the world are increasingly moving the project to Switzerland and Japan, which will help both countries get tax revenue.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The corrective cycle in wave 4 continues and the first target for wave 4 low has been projected at the level of $5,092. The second target is projected at the level of $4,968. Only a sudden, violate breakout above the wave 3 top at the level of $6,168 would invalidate the short-term corrective bearish scenario.

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Trading plan for 25/10/2017

Trading plan for 25/10/2017:

The Australian Dollar heavily loses after surprisingly weak CPI reading. President Trump's mini-poll on the future Fed chief was positively received by the USD. EUR/USD is trading above 1.1750, USD/JPY cannot go above 114.00. Despite the uptrend on Wall Street, the Nikkei is finally breaking its uptrend and falls 0.6%. Hang Seng is today gaining 0.2%.

On Wednesday 25th of October, the event calendar is busy with important news releases. During the London session, the German Ifo Business Climate, Ifo Current Assessment, and Ifo Expectations data will be released. the UK will post Preliminary GDP data. During the US session, Bank of Canada will decide on interest rate and will publish Rate Statement. The US will present Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales data.

EUR/USD analysis for 25/10/2017:

The German Ifo Business Climate, Ifo Current Assessment, and Ifo Expectations data are scheduled for release at 08:00 am GMT. The market participants expect the data to continue the uptrend as the German economy is still the power horse of the whole Eurozone. Nevertheless, the second biggest economy, France, had delivered very good figures yesterday. According to latest flash data, the resurgence in the French private sector showed no sign of abating at the start of the fourth quarter. Indeed, the rate of growth accelerated from September with the IHS Markit Flash France Composite Output Index posting 57.5, up from 57.1 in September and a near-six-and-a-half-year high. Output growth was broad-based across each monitored sub-sector. Building on a strong performance in September, service sector activity rose to the greatest extent since March 2017. A similar trend was evident at goods-producers, with manufacturing production quickening to a six-and-a-half year high.Buoyed by strong client demand, private sector firms continued to take on additional staff members in October, extending the latest period of job creation to 12 months. Moreover, the rate of growth was the most marked in just shy of ten-and-a-half years (May 2007).

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market did not react too much to the French data release as the majority of investors is still waiting for the event of the week (ECB interest rate decision) to participate in the market. So fat the price is still being kept within a narrow range between the levels of 1.1880 - 1.1729. The momentum indicator stays around its fifty mark, which means the market will likely move sideways until a breakout in either direction occurs.

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Market Snapshot: USD/JPY bounces from support

The price of USD/JPY had bounced from support at the level of 113.25 and is about to make a new local high above the level of 114.10. The next target for bulls is at the level of 114.47, which is a technical resistance on a daily time frame. Please notice the growing bearish divergence between the price and the momentum oscillator, indicating the incoming correction.

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Market Snapshot: GBP/USD awaits the breakout

The price of GBP/USD is still trading in a narrow range between the levels of 1.3087 - 1.3220 as it awaits the breakout in either direction. The larger time frame trend remains bullish, so the incoming data from the UK economy might increase the volatility on this pair and a breakout can occur. Please watch the level of 1.3030 for further extension to the downside.

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Trading plan 25/10/2017

Trading plan 25/10/2017

EUR/USD: Narrow consolidation requires an exit and strong movement.

The EUR/USD rate was stuck in the horizontal range of 1.1720 - 1.1860, the borders received a daily order in time. The exit was ripe and the movement was strong.

It is very likely that the exit from the range will occur on the main news on the euro which will be on Thursday, tomorrow, on the decision of the ECB (26.10). If the crisis in Catalonia develops in the same direction (for example, a compromise variant appears), the movement will receive an additional impetus.

However, the movement can start and earlier on Wednesday at 13.30 will report on orders for durable goods in the US.

We buy for breakthrough 1.1860 upward.

Sell for the breakthrough 1.1720 down.

More aggressively: Buy a breakthrough 1.1800 up.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for October 25, 2017

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD has not moved significantly this week. However, a movement that is directional is expected soon, which either would take price above the resistance line at 1.1850 or below the support line at 1.1700. Until one of the two boundaries are breached, the bias on the market would be neutral.

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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF has gone upwards this week, gaining 60 pips and testing the resistance level at 0.9900. The resistance level would be breached to the upside today or tomorrow as price targets other resistance levels at 0.9950 and 1.0000 (which would be difficult to breach to the upside, for it is a psychological level).

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GBP/USD: The Cable went downwards on Tuesday, to put more emphasis on the recent bearishness in the market. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart, and the price has moved below the distribution territory at 1.3150, as further bearish movement is anticipated. The next targets for bears are located at the accumulation territories at 1.3100 and 1.3050.

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USD/JPY: This currency trading instrument is bullish in the short-term (though quite volatile). The supply level at 114.00 has been tested and it would be tested again, as price journeys further upwards towards another supply levels at 114.50 and 115.00, which would require a strong bullish momentum.

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EUR/JPY: What happened on the EUR/JPY is quite similar to what happened on USD/JPY. The market is bullish but volatile. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56, and the RSI period 14 is above the level 50. The supply zone at 134.00 has been tested and it would soon be breached to the upside as price journeys further northwards. As long price is above the demand zone at 132.50, the outlook on the market would remain bullish.

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The market believes in the dollar

Donald Trump, after announcing five candidates for the Fed presidency, has paused, putting the market under pressure. The new head of the Fed, whoever it turns out to be, will continue the policy of tightening monetary policy, which currently consists of two areas namely raising rates and reducing the balance.

At the current rate, the market's opinion is already set: the session on November 2 will not give any new information, the rate will be raised in December, and the probability of the next step in March 2018 is now more than 40%. This high probability reflects the market assumption that a new head will replace Yellen with more pronounced hawkish intentions.

It is clear that the tightening of the monetary policy should be accompanied by an increase in the main macroeconomic indicators, which include economic growth, the labor market, and inflation. On the first point, if we base it from the reports, the situation can be considered satisfactory. The gap between the indicators of business activity from the ISM and the lagging PMI Markit began to decline at last. Preliminary data for May indicate that according to Markit, the US economy is booming. Activity in the services sector increased to 55.9p against 55.3p while the production index and the composite index reached a 9-month high, reaching 54.5p and 55.7p respectively.

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There are certain dangers in inflationary expectations. The current level of inflation lags behind the 2% target set by the Fed and strictly speaking, the focus on inflation should force the Fed to take a break. However, the question of the rate, in this case, is not so much an economic problem but a political one. Donald Trump needs to announce the beginning of reforms during the economic recovery rather than the recession. This is because in this case, it will be much easier to organize the flow of investments into the economy, which is an extremely important factor in the face of growing pressure on the budget. The Fed, in turn, cannot sell signals of weakness, since it risks putting fuel into the furnace of deflationary expectations.

In order for everyone to realize their goals, they need confidence in the future that the Fed will raise the rate in December and Trump will announce the beginning of reforms. Positive expectations also contribute to the growth of consumer confidence, which is currently at long-term highs. This capital can only be used correctly.

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The market is slowly but surely unfolding in facing the dollar. It is clear that in this spread, a significant part is the delayed expectations. However, these expectations should lie on the prepared ground so the rhetoric of the Fed leadership will continue to be hawkish along with the main indicators of the state of the economy to support the demand for US assets.

Today, you need to pay attention to the publication of the report on orders for durable goods. Given the growth of ISM and PMI Markit, it may turn out that the September figures will outperform expectations and the dollar may receive a signal to resume growth. On Friday, the first preliminary GDP data will be released in Q3 as well as another important indicator namely the index of spending on personal consumption. Its growth relative to Q2 will give the bulls confidence, since it will point to stable consumer demand and the likelihood of inflation.

The continued strengthening of the stock market and the sale of bonds indicate that investors are not too afraid of tightening financial conditions. They are confident that the positive effect of the upcoming tax reform will cover losses. Such optimism will continue to exert pressure on defensive assets, in particular, gold, franc, and yen. The Australian dollar will also remain under pressure due to weak data on inflation. The loonie's prospects will be determined today by the Bank of Canada.

In general, the dollar is the main favorite of autumn and any temporary weakness should be used for new sales.

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Last minute burning forecast 25.10.2017

Last minute burning forecast 25.10.2017

GBPUSD: We are waiting for a strong move on the news.

The beginning of the week passed in a narrow consolidation: the market is preparing for the move - probably on the news.

We prefer buying - down to a decline to 1.3030 - because the support line of the uptrend is not broken.

At the same time, selling is also possible with a break of the support line at 1.3020.

A potential for buying at a breakthrough at 1.3240 upwards.

News: on Wednesday at 12.30 London time - the publication of orders for durable goods in the US.

If today the movement is not implemented, there are important news on Thursday: the ECB on rates - and news on the crisis of Catalonia - Spain.

And also on Friday, the release of the US GDP report.analytics59f036e6b3536.jpg

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for October 25, 2017

The Dollar index is back near its highs just below 94 but with RSI diverging, I believe we will not break convincingly above 94. I expect at least a short-term pull back towards 93.50 at least. The trend remains bullish.

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Red trend line -support

The Dollar index is making higher highs and higher lows. Short-term trend is bullish as the price is above the Kumo (cloud) in the 4-hour chart. Support is at 93.55 and next at 93.40. Resistance is at 94.

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On a weekly basis, the trend is bearish. Price is making a bigger than usual bounce and has broken above the tenkan-sen (red line indicator). As long as the price is above 92.60 we could see a move towards 95.40 where the kijun-sen is found. Breaking below 92.60 will open the way for a push to new lows below 91 or even 90.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for October 25, 2017

The Gold price has made new lows earlier today but the oscillators are not following to new lows. The trend remains bearish. There is a bullish wedge pattern in play, and a breakout should signal the start of the next upward leg.

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Blue lines - downward sloping wedge

Red lines - expected price path

Gold price is heading towards the lower wedge boundary and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Gold price is expected to touch the trend line and reverse higher. The RSI is diverging and we should soon see an upward reversal. Resistance is at $1,283 and next at $1,290. Support is at $1,271 and next at $1,263.

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On a daily basis, the trend is now bearish as the price has broken below the Ichimoku cloud. Resistance is at $1,280-85 where the lower boundary of the Kumo is found. Next important resistance is at $1,290. For Gold to be on a bullish trend again, the price must break above the cloud resistance at $1,315. Important longer-term support is found at $1,245-50 where the longer-term blue trend line comes.

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Fundamental Analysis of GBPUSD for October 25, 2017

GBP/USD has been quite corrective recently which is currently showing some bearish pressure closing below 1.3150 support level with a daily candle. The weakness of Pound is driven by the Brexit impact and expected the weaken further in the coming days whereas US rate hike is expected to happen in December. Today GBP Prelim GDP report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 0.3%, High Street Lending is also expected to be unchanged at 41.8k and Index of Services is expected to decrease to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.5%. On the USD side, today Core Durable Goods Orders report is going to be published today which is expected to be unchanged at 0.5%, Durable Goods Orders report is expected to decrease to 1.0% from the previous value of 2.0%, HPI report is expected to increase to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.2%, New Home Sales report is expected to decrease to 555k from the previous figure of 560k and Crude Oil Inventories is expected to decrease the deficit to -2.6M which previously was at -5.7M. As of the current scenario, a series of high impact economic reports are going to be published on GBP and USD today whereas USD is expected to have an upper hand over GBP.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently residing below the dynamic level of 20 EMA which is acting as a resistance inside the resistance area of 1.3150-1.3270. The price has been impulsively bearish recently which engulfed the recent bullish price action and currently expected to have bearish pressure towards 1.2770 support level in the coming days. As the price remains below 1.3270 resistance level the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for October 25, 2017

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair is still trading in the bullish trend from the support spot of 0.9810- 0.9836. On the H4 chart, the price is in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that it is still in a bullish trending market. As the price is still above the moving average (100), immediate support is seen at 0.9836, which coincides with a golden ratio (61.8% of Fibonacci). Hence, the first support is set at the level of 0.9836. So, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the area of 0.9810- 0.9836. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the prices of 0.9810- 0.9836 with the first target at the level of 0.9892 (pivot point). Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level of 0.9892. Moreover, the pair could climb towards the second resistance levels of 0.9817 and 0.9950. However, it would also be wise to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 0.9810 (double bottom).
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Brent is deaf in one ear

While Kurdistan is at war with the federal forces of Iraq, OPEC is optimistic about the stabilization of the situation on the oil market, and while Brent is preparing for the first time in two years to storm the psychologically significant level of $60 per barrel, the United States is altering the world for themselves. The growth of the difference in prices between the North Sea and Texas oil varieties to the highest levels from 2015 led to an increase in U.S. exports and the displacement of competitor producers from the world market. The United States is actively taking its place, increasing its share. It remains only to insure price risks, and we can safely continue what was started. According to the estimates of London brokerage PVM, US companies hedged 70-80% of their supplies in 2017 and only 25% by 2018. The price increase creates an excellent opportunity for selling futures under risk management projects and puts a ceiling for WTI.

The growth of the spread Brent-WTI looks quite logical against the backdrop of the continuous increase in production in the United States and the implementation of the Vienna agreements of OPEC. Since November 2016, the cost of the North Sea variety has risen by approximately 20%, which allows Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo to speak optimistically about stabilizing the situation on the market. Russia and Saudi Arabia, which account for about a fifth of the world's production of crude oil, are ready to extend the terms of the agreement, at least until the end of 2018, and urge other countries to join them. British Petroleum believes that if we take into consideration the supply and demand, the prices are where they should, but the presence of geopolitical risks increases the likelihood of Brent going above $60 per barrel.

Commerzbank, on the contrary, assumes that the rally is exhausted. The market is deaf in one ear, as it hears only "bullish" news and ignores "bearish" ones. At the same time, the growth of the long differential by Brent and WTI to the maximum level in history increases the risks of reversal. By the end of the week, by October 17, speculators had increased their net long positions in the North Sea grade by 1.2%, while net longs in Texas, on the contrary, decreased by 8.2%.

Dynamics of speculative positions for Brent

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Source: Bloomberg.

Dynamics of speculative positions on WTI

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Source: Bloomberg.

However, bulls have a trump card in their sleeves, which they rarely recall: since the prices exceeded $100 per barrel, the mining companies significantly reduced the volume of investments, which sooner or later will affect the production of black gold. Meanwhile, investors are discussing the seizure by the federal forces of Iraq of the oil-rich Kurdish region of Kirkuk and assess how much supplies can decrease. Geopolitics continues to support the "bulls" for Brent and WTI support, however, the question often arises on the agenda: where is the ceiling?

Technically, the inability of the "bears" to bring Brent quotes out of the rising trading channel indicates their weakness. Updating the September highs close to $59.5 per barrel activates the pattern AB = CD with targets at $60.7 and $62.3 per barrel.

Brent, daily chart

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Daily analysis of gold for October 24, 2017

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Overview

Gold price closed yesterday's trading above $1,281.17 level, noticing that the last decline is confined inside falling Wedge pattern which signs appear on chart. As the price attempts to breach its resistance and moves above its resistance now, which hints the price head to regain the main bullish trend again and stop the negative pressure that dominated the recent trades. Therefore, the bullish bias will be suggested in the upcoming sessions, and the targets begin by testing $1,299.20 level, noting that breaking $1,281.17 and trading below it again will reactivate the correctional bearish trend scenario that its next target located at $1,263.15. The expected trading range for today is between 1270.00 support and 1295.00 resistance.

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Daily analysis of silver for October 24, 2017

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Overview

Silver price fluctuates with calm positivity in attempt to move away from the breached resistance, affected by the positive signals that appears through Stochastic. It reinforces the chances of continuing the bullish scenario in the upcoming sessions, waiting to test 17.43 level initially. Breaching the mentioned level will extend silver price gains to 18.30 as the next main station, while the expected rise will remain valid unless breaking 16.56 level and holding below it. The expected trading range for today is between 16.95 support and 17.30 resistance.

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