Daily analysis of Gold for January 17, 2018

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Overview

This week, gold price hit a high at 1,344.70. At present, the metal is showing a slight bearish bias from there. Please note that stochastic is still providing positive signals on the intraday time frames, while the EMA50 continues to carry the price from below. Therefore, we keep our bullish overview on the intraday and short-term basis, waiting for a test of the 1,357.53 level as a next station. Let me remind you that breaching this level will extend the gold price gains to reach 1,375.00 followed by 1,404.00, while holding above 1,321.49 represents the key condition to continue the expected rise. The expected trading range for today is between 1,330.00 support and 1,357.00 resistance.

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Daily analysis of Silver for January 17, 2018

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Overview

Silver price bounced upwards clearly after a decline yesterday as the EMA50 managed to protect the price from suffering more losses. Now, the price is on track to the key resistance of 17.43 again. Therefore, our bullish outlook remains valid for the short term. Please note that breaching the mentioned level will push the price towards 18.30 as a next target, while holding above 16.55 represents the most important condition to continue the expected bullish trend. The expected trading range for today is between 17.00 support and 17.40 resistance.

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Global macro analysis for 17/01/2018

On Tuesday, after the three-day weekend, American investors returned to markets. They did not have much information on which to base the index movement as there was no reaction after the publication of the January NY Empire State Index data, but let us note that the index was 17.7 points while the market participants expected it to remain at 18 points. On the other hand, the SP500 poor performance could be affected by the quarterly result and forecasts of Citigroup and the behavior of General Electric shares (the change in the valuation of the insurance portfolio costs the company over USD 6 billion in profit after tax). Citigroup recorded a huge loss due to the one-off cost resulting from the new tax law, but the results were still better than expected and the shares were slightly more expensive. General Electric shares lost about 4.0%.

Todays data from the US has beat the estimates as well and for a moment, the hope of the US Dollar's return to favor was suggested by data on Industrial Production, which, based on the inflow of soft-data, had a chance to surprise market expectations. December reading at 0.9% m/m (consensus: 0.5% ) is due to great moods in energy companies (5.6%m/m) and automotive (2.0% m/m). The factory production (0.1% m/m, consensus: 0.3%) was just below expectations, due to the appreciable decline in the volume of goods made from metals (-1.5% m/m).

Let's now take a look at the SPY (SP500 EFT) technical picture at the H4 time frame after the data were released. The market made another higher high at the level of 280.10 and the bear took control of it as they managed to push it below the technical support at the level of 278.20. Nevertheless, the price has bounced from the golden trend line support and now is trying to test the resistance at the level of 278.20. The growing bearish divergence is an indication of another leg down to the level of 2175.27.

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BITCOIN Analysis for January 17, 2018

Bitcoin is currently trading below $10,000 price area which is the lowest point of retracement it has done since the explosive impulsive meteoric rise to $19,000 earlier. In this case, it is not only bitcoin to blame but the whole cryptocurrencies market seems to be the victim of Market Crash effect. A kind of panic and insecurity is being observed in the market of digital currencies for which the price is speculated to have such a downward move recently. As for the recent developments, bitcoin has been weighed down by a looming clampdown on Bitcoin Exchange and South Korean regulation pressure that triggered a sudden downfall in the price which has been unstoppable for a last few days. As for the current scenario, price is expected to head towards $8,000 support area in the coming days before it shows any evidence of intervention of the bulls in the market. This has been the fastest and deepest drawdown in the bitcoin history since its inception. At present, investors are expressing fears over such a rapid slump.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for January 17, 2018

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allowed a quick bullish advance towards 1.2200 where recent evidence of bearish rejection was expressed (Note the Monthly candlestick of last September).

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Daily Outlook

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout was expressed towards the price level of 1.2100 where the depicted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was expressed.

Bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern extends towards 1.1350. However, to pursue towards the mentioned target level, significant bearish pressure was needed to be applied against the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).

However, In November, recent price action around the price zone of 1.1520-1.1415 indicated evident bullish recovery.

This hindered further bearish decline which allowed the current bullish pullback to occur towards the price level of 1.2100 which failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum so far.

Daily persistence above 1.2150-1.2200 confirms the depicted bullish continuation pattern with projected targets towards 1.2500. Otherwise, bearish pullback will be expected towards 1.2070 before further bullish advancement can take place.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for January 17, 2018

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Daily Outlook

In July 2017, an atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart which indicated upcoming bearish reversal.

As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why, further bearish decline was expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).

Evident signs of bullish recovery was expressed around the recent low (0.6780). An inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed around these price levels.

The price zone of 0.7140-0.7250 (prominent Supply-Zone) failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, a bullish breakout above 0.7250 was expressed on January 11.

That's why, the current bullish movement extended towards the price levels of 0.7240 and 0.7320.

A quick bullish movement is expected towards the depicted supply zone (0.7320-0.7390) where price action should be watched for evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders should be looking for a valid SELL entry anywhere around the depicted supply zone (0.7320-0.7390).

S/L should be located above 0.7450. T/P levels should be located around 0.7230, 0.7150 and 0.7090.

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Bitcoin analysis for January 17, 2018

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $9.622. A national petition against extreme cryptocurrency regulations in South Korea has exceeded 200,000 signatures, the requirement for the government to respond. The petition entitled "Has the government ever dreamed a happy dream for the people?" was filed on December 28. Meanwhile, another related petition calls for the removal of the governor of the country's Financial Supervisory Service.The technical picture looks bearish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 4H time - frame, I found a breakout of key short-term support at the price of $10.635, which is sign that sellers are in control. In the background, there is the major bearish pennant formation and the downward projected target is set at the price of $8.185. Watch for selling opportunities.

Support/Resistance

$11.169 – Intraday resistance

$9.622– Intraday support

$8.185 – Objective target

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Fundamental Analysis of AUD/USD for January 17, 2018

AUD/USD has been non-volatile and impulsive with the bullish gains for a while. Despite having mixed economy reports AUD has been sustaining the gaining very well since the Employment Change report showed a positive increase last month. Today AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment report was published where it showed a decrease to 1.8% from the previous value of 3.6% and Home Loans report showed significant increase to 2.1% from the previous negative value of -0.6% which was expected to be at -0.1%. On the other hand, ahead of the upcoming Building Permits report to be published this week, today USD Capacity Utilization Rate report is going to be published which is expected to have slight increase to 77.3% from the previous value of 77.1%, Industrial Production is expected to increase to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.2% and NAHB Housing Market Index is expected to have slight decrease to 73 from the previous figure of 74. As of the current scenario, AUD is expected to take its gain much further in the coming days as USD is expected to have less influence on the market with mixed economic reports and high impact reports with negative forecasts this week. Though AUD bullish streak is expected to be over by the coming days as USD may counter strong off the event levels.

Now let us look at the technical view, price is currently quite impulsive with the bullish gains where it is expected to reach 0.8050 resistance area in the coming days before showing any impulsive bearish pressure to counter in this pair. If the price rejects off the 0.8050 with a daily close which is more probable due to Bearish Divergence is being emerged in the meantime, so bears are expected to pressurize the price off the 0.8050 area to push lower with target towards 0.7750 support area in the coming days.

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Analysis of Gold for January 17, 2018

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Recently, Gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1,337.00. According to the 30M time - frame, I found that price rejected of the pivot support at $1,332.00, which is a sign that selling looks risky. I also found positive readings on MACD oscillator, which is another sign of strength. Short-term trend is still bullish. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of $1,343.15 and at the price of $1,347.80.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,343.17

R2: $1,347.80

R3: $1,353.58

Support levels:

S1: $1,332.75

S2: $1,327.13

S3: $1,322.35

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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GBP/USD analysis for January 17, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading sideways at the price of 1.3803. According to the 15M time - frame, I found that price rejected of the pivot support at 1.3753, which is a sign that selling looks risky. I also found positive readings on MACD oscillator, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.3818, 1.3840 and at the price of 1.3880.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3818

R2: 1.3840

R3: 1.3880

Support levels:

S1: 1.3750

S2: 1.3715

S3: 1.3690

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/CAD for January 17, 2018

USD/CAD has been quite indecisive recently after breaking below the 1.2450 event level. CAD has been dominating USD for a while now which is expected to continue further in the coming days due to recent USD economic weakness being observed. Today CAD Overnight Rate report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 1.25% from the previous value of 1.00%, which will be alongside BOC Monetary Policy Report and BOC Rate Statement today. Moreover, today BOC Press Conference is going to be held following the high impact economic reports and events. On the other hand, ahead of the upcoming Building Permits report to be published this week, today USD Capacity Utilization Rate report is going to be published which is expected to have slight increase to 77.3% from the previous value of 77.1%, Industrial Production is expected to increase to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.2% and NAHB Housing Market Index is expected to have slight decrease to 73 from the previous figure of 74. As of the current scenario, CAD economic reports to be published today is expected to have more impact than the economic reports of USD as a whole, so an increase in the BOC Overnight Rate would result to impulsive gain on the CAD side which will lead to further severe weakness of USD in the process. As the market is still quite indecisive but CAD has sustained the gains till now, which is an indication of strengthening ahead of the high impact news.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently residing at the edge of 1.2450 after breaking below it recently with a daily close. Ahead of the Overnight Rate of CAD, the price seemed to be quite indecisive in nature but bears are sustaining the pressure below the event level which does indicate the upcoming momentum of the currencies in the pair. As the price remains below 1.2450 event level with a daily close the bearish bias is expected to continue with the target towards 1.2110 support area.

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Global macro overview for 17/01/2018

The decision of the Bank of Canada will be published today at 03:00 pm GMT. Market participants expect the BoC to hike the interest rate from 1.00% to 1.25%. Together with the decision, the Monetary Policy Report will be published with the update of economic forecasts called BOC Monetary Policy Report. At 04:15 pm GMT, the conference of President Poloz and vice president Wilkins is scheduled.

In the December statement, the Bank of Canada emphasized in its forward guidance that it intends to be cautious and subject to the incoming data from the economy. From the point of view of this second argument, everything seems to be conducive to further monetary policy tightening. The readings from the labor market are impressive - in December employment grew by 78.6k places, beating expectations for a modest increase of 2k only. The unemployment rate is at a historical minimum of 5.7%. Although the economic growth rate in October (latest available data) expired 0.2% on a monthly basis, but the annual dynamics remained solid at the level of 3.4%. CPI inflation in November raised to 2.1% on yearly basis from 1.4%, thus reaching the inflation target of 2.0%. Retail sales for October were also good at 1.5% m/m at the threshold 0.3%.

However, BoC also remains cautious in its attitude regarding the further development of the economic situation, as well as the risk assessment for prospects. In this context, the greatest threat concerns the ongoing US negations about the future of the NAFTA agreement. Last week there was information from representatives of the Canadian government, among which there is growing confidence that the US will break the deal during the sixth phase of talks at the end of January. The collapse of talks would mean serious perturbations for Canada's trade, which would hit the economy. Tough nut to crack for the Bank of Canada, so the press conference will be very interesting to watch, despite the priced in interest rate hike.

Let's now take a look at the USD/CAD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The price got back to the consolidation zone between the levels of 1.2397 - 1.2449 after a failed attempt to rally above the technical resistance at the level of 1.2598. Most of the BoC interest rate hike might be priced in already, so the relief rally toward the level of 1.2598 again should be expected now.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for January 17, 2018

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair continues to rise from the point of 0.7234 in the long term. It should be noted that the support is established at the level of 0.7234 which represents the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level in the H1 time frame. The price is likely to form a double bottom in the same time frame. Accordingly, the NZD/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 0.7234. So, buy above the level of 0.7234 with the first target at 0.7277 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 0.7310. Besides, it might be noted that the level of 0.7310 is a good place to take profit because it will form a new double top. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.7234, a further decline to 0.7173 can occur which would indicate a bearish market. On the whole, we are looking for a strong bullish market as long as the trend is still set above the spot of 0.7230.
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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for January 17, 2018

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair didn't make significant movement yesterday. There are no changes in my technical outlook. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 0.9553 or lower. Today, the USD/CHF pair continues to move downwards from the level of 0.9745.
  • Yesterday, the pair dropped from the level of 0.9745 (this level of 0.9745 coincides with the ratio of 38.2% Fibonacci retracment levels) to the bottom around 0.9602. Today, the trend had rebounded from the bottom of 0.9602 to climp toward the level of 0.9650.
  • Moreover, the first resistance level is seen at 0.9691 followed by 0.9745, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.9602. According to the previous events, the USD/CHF pair is still moving br, tetween the levels of 0.9691 and 0.9553; for that we expect a range of 138 pips (0.9691 - 0.9553). If the USD/CHF pair fails to break through the resistance level of 0.9691, the market will decline further to 0.9553. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a positive area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 0.9553 with a view to test the daily pivot point.
  • On the other hand, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 0.9745, then this scenario may become invalidated.
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Bitcoin analysis for 17/01/2018

Mark Cuban, a cryptocurrency billionaire, said his basketball team Dallas Mavericks will accept Bitcoin next season. In the comments on Twitter after publishing the composition his team, who in June last year called Bitcoin a bubble, he announced that fans of the team will be able to buy tickets using Bitcoin in the second half of 2018. This step is a milestone for both American basketball and the acceptance of cryptocurrencies in sport, and Cuban has been convinced by Bitcoin in the last six months. "This is interesting because there are many assets whose value is based only on supply and demand" - he said in the October interview. He also confirmed that he had invested his resources in Bitcoin: "Most shares have no intrinsic value because you do not have real ownership and voting rights. You simply have the option of buying and selling these shares. With Bitcoin, it's the same. Its value is based on supply demand. I bought some through ETN on the Swedish stock exchange".

Outside the United States, Denmark made an even more pronounced gesture last month, when the change of ownership of the main hockey club meant that it is now associated with cryptocurrencies. The three-year term of Bitcoin Suisse means that the home stadium of Rungsted Seier Capital will now be called Bitcoin Arena. In addition, the best player in the team will receive a salary in Bitcoins, which was officially announced by the club.

Let's now take a look at Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The price has broken below the important technical support at the level of #11,150 and now is heading towards the 100% Fibo Extension at the level of $8.602. This is the first projection level for wave c of wave 4, so the price should bounce from this level. Please notice, the corrective cycle might still evolve into more complex and time-consuming pattern.

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Trading plan for 17/01/2018

The foreign exchange market experiences a liquidity increase, from which the USD finally finishes as a winner. The EUR / USD tended to fluctuate, first breaking to 1.2325 to move back to 1.2220. USD / JPY for a while scored 110.18, but now it is already at 110.80. AUD ignores good economic data and remains relatively calm. The stock market in Asia in mixed moods. Gold is finally in a correction.

On Wednesday 17th of January, the main event of the day is the Bank of Canada interest rate decision, but market participants should keep an eye on Consumer Price Index data from the Eurozone, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Rate data from the US.

EUR/USD analysis for 17/01/2018:

The US Congress is still working on extending funding for the government administration from January 19 to February 16, thereby trying to avoid the so-called government shutdown. The Republican bill includes concessions for Democrats to gain partial support. This is in line with market expectations.

The USD managed to cope with the sudden sale from the beginning of the Asian part of the session. Movements lack a direct causative factor, which may mean that the market was looking for the last spurt to break the market after Tuesday's consolidation. After a failed attempt, it switched to profit taking.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The local new high was made at the level of 1.2321 and now the price is in the corrective cycle. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 1.2193, so it should be tested again soon. The next technical support is seen at the level of 1.2155, but the key technical support is still at the level of 1.2090. The overbought market conditions support the idea of a corrective slide.

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Market Snapshot: AUD/USD hits 78% Fibo

The price of AUD/USD has retraced 78% of the previous swing down and made a new marginal high at the level of 0.7998. Due to the overbought market conditions and growing bearish divergence, the price should now pull-back from the highs to test the level of 0.7934 and possibly 0.7907. Please mind the channel lines.

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Market Snapshot: GOLD makes a local Double Top

The price of Gold has made a Double Top technical pattern around the level of $1,344 and might soon start to pull-back from the highs. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $1,331 and $1,322. Please notice the growing bearish divergence and overbought market conditions support the view.

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Trading plan 01/17/2018

Trading plan 01/17/2018

The general picture: The market is adjusted for correction.

By the morning of Wednesday, the market was in a corrective mood. In the US market, the mad euphoria of bulls has finally dried up and the main indices showed the first decline this year.

The Bitcoin has drifted down significantly in recent days.

The correction was also outlined in currencies.

Nevertheless, while the general trend against the dollar is not broken, very likely, we will see a new campaign against the dollar.

In the evening, at 19.00 London time, the Fed will publish a report on the economy "Beige Book". As always, 14 days before the decision on the rates.

GBPUSD

We are buying from a rollback from 1.3610.

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Burning forecast 01/17/2018

EURUSD: The correction started, but the trend is not canceled.In the morning on Wednesday, correction began after growth on the EURUSD exchange rate.The price has broken past the highs and pulled back, removing close stops.Thus, there is a correction - but the upward trend has not been canceled yet.In the evening at 6:00 PM there will be important data: Fed's report on the state of the economy, the"Beige Book".The increase is expected to continue after correction.Buy the euro with a rollback of 1.2180, stop at 1.2135, profit at 1.2280.

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Technical analysis of USDX for January 17, 2018

The Dollar index is showing reversal signs. Although it made a new low at 90.12 yesterday, it is now trying to break above yesterday highs. Short-term trend remains bearish and so far we consider this bounce as a corrective one and not a bigger reversal.

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Blue line - resistance

The Dollar index has short-term resistance at 91.30 and next at 91.70. Breaking above these levels will open the way for a test of 92.60 which is the most important short-term resistance. Only a break above the 92.60 could signal a bigger upward reversal. So far trend remains bearish.

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Blue line - long-term resistance

The weekly candle is forming a bullish reversal hammer. However, we have nearly 3 more trading days ahead of us so it is still early to call this a reversal sign. But bears need to be cautious. Weekly resistance is found at 92.60 as well. A weekly close above 92.60 would be a bullish sign. A break above the blue trend line will most probably confirm the reversal with 97 as first target.

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Technical analysis of gold for January 17, 2018

Gold price has pulled back from its recent highs at $1,344 as the bearish divergence signs suggested it would. It now remains to be seen how deep this pull back will be. Short-term trend remains bullish as long as price is above $1,309.

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Red lines - bearish divergence signs

Green line - support

Short-term support is found at $1,325 and next at $1,316-$1,309. Price has most probably completed the entire rise from $1,237. It is time for a correction. Important levels to watch out for apart from $1,309 are at $1,280 and $1,250.

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Magenta line - resistance

Blue line - support

On a weekly basis, we have come very close to the long-term resistance of $1,250. A rejection here will be a bearish sign. However only a weekly close below $1,290 could push price towards $1,250 where the Ichimoku cloud support is found or even towards the blue long-term trend line support at $1,210.

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for January 17, 2018

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Our first target which we predicted in the previous analysis has been hit. The pair is bouncing off its rising trend line support and has also broken above its key horizontal level at 152.00. The upside potential has been opened now toward 1.3920. In addition, a bullish cross has been identified between the 20-period and 50-period moving averages.

In which case, as long as 152.00 isn't broken, likely advance to 153.20 and 154.00 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a short position is recommended below 152.00 with the target at 151.55

Strategy: BUY, stop loss at 152.00, take profit at 153.20

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates long positions; and when it is below the pivot point, it indicates short positions. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 153.20, 154.00, and 154.50.

Support levels: 151.55, 151.00, and 150.45

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for January 17, 2018

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NZD/USD is under pressure and expected to continue its downside movement. The pair remains capped by its falling 50-period moving average and is likely to test its next support at 0.7250. The nearest resistance at 0.7290 maintains the strong selling pressure on the prices. Last but not least, the relative strength index is mixed to bearish below its neutrality area at 50.

To sum up, as long as 0.7290 is resistance, look for a new pullback to 0.7220 and 0.7190 in extension.

The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines are showing the support levels, while the green line is indicating the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7315, 0.7335, and 0.7375.

Support levels: 0.7220, 0.7190, and 0.7150.

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Bitcoin bouncing off major support, remain bullish for an intermediate correction

Reason for the trading strategy (fundamentally):

Price has dropped strongly amid concerns in Asia as investors still keep an eye out on the crackdown in Korea. Most recently a senior official at the People's Bank of China is reportedly calling for a wider ban on services related to cryptocurrency trading in the country. The goal is to end all cryptocurrency trading-related activities and services. This has rattled the market strongly leading to its sell-off.

Reason for the trading strategy (technically):

Price has dropped strongly since yesterday and we're seeing that price has bounced off major support at 10332 (ABC Fibonacci extension, long-term 50% Fibonacci retracement) and we expect an intermediate corrective bounce from here. Our first target would be 12808 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance, breakout level) before 14497 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major support above 12% where we expect a corresponding bounce from.

Buy above 10332. Stop loss at 7902. Take profit at 12808 and 14497.

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AUD/JPY dropped perfectly, remain bearish for a further drop

The price has dropped perfectly from our selling area yesterday before bouncing above our ascending support line. This ascending support line would need to be broken to trigger a strong bearish move down. We still remain bearish looking to sell below major resistance at 88.43 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement, Elliott wave corrective structure) for a drop towards 87.24 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support).

RSI (34) sees major descending resistance line acting as resistance to push the price down from here.

Sell below 88.43. Stop loss at 88.70. Take profit at 87.24.

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Trading Plan for EUR/USD and US Dollar Index for January 17, 2018

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Technical outlook:

A 4H chart view has been presented here which highlights the last wave (5) which could be unfolding as 5 waves at this point. As labeled here, it is quite possible that 3 waves might have completed with EURUSD spiking to new highs at 1.2323 levels and that wave 4 might be looking lower now. This could bring back prices back to 1.1900/50 handle before rallying into the last wave 5. On the flip side, a drop below 1.1900 levels and subsequently the line of support, would indicate that a major top has been formed and EURUSD is now headed lower. In either case, a bearish bias is favored for now. Please allow 1.2200 levels to break again, before attempting short positions again. Bearish divergences are strongly witnessed on the RSI and MACD oscillators.

Trading plan:

Look to sell again now (aggressive) or on a break below 1.2200 levels, stop above 1.2323, the target is open.

US Dollar Index chart setups:

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Technical outlook:

The US Dollar Index 4H chart view has been presented here to highlight its last wave (5) unfolding. lower. It is quite evident that at least wave 3 has been terminated now with another intraday low being printed at 90.21 levels. The most likely direction should be a push higher towards 92.70 levels, which could be a potential wave 4 termination point. On the flip side, a push higher towards 94.25 and above levels would indicate that a major bottom is in place in the US Dollar Index at 90.21 levels and that a meaningful corrective rally should be in place now. Bullish divergences are strongly witnessed on RSI and MACD oscillators now and hence a turn is almost inevitable. It remains to be seen when would bulls take control back and break the first resistance at 90.80 levels.

Trading plan:

Please remain long with a stop at 90.00 or go long on a break above 90.80 levels.

Fundamental outlook:

Watch out for Bank of Canada rate decision at 1000 AM EST.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Jan 17, 2018

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released such as German 30-y Bond Auction, Final Core CPI y/y, and Final CPI y/y. The US will release the Economic Data too, such as TIC Long-Term Purchases, Beige Book, NAHB Housing Market Index, Industrial Production m/m, and Capacity Utilization Rate, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a ... volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.2388.

Strong Resistance:1.2372.

Original Resistance: 1.2345.

Inner Sell Area: 1.2318.

Target Inner Area: 1.2254.

Inner Buy Area: 1.2190.

Original Support: 1.2163.

Strong Support: 1.2136.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.2120.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Jan 17, 2018

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In Asia, Japan will release the Core Machinery Orders m/m data, and the US will release some Economic Data such as TIC Long-Term Purchases, Beige Book, NAHB Housing Market Index, Industrial Production m/m, and Capacity Utilization Rate. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 110.97.

Resistance. 2: 110.76.

Resistance. 1: 110.54.

Support. 1: 110.27.

Support. 2: 110.06.

Support. 3: 109.84.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of major pairs for January 17, 2018

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD has gone upwards by over 350 pips since last week. It has gone upwards by over 100 pips this week, resulting in a huge Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart. Further bullish movement is anticipated, for the price would reach the resistance lines at 1.2350, 1.2400 and 1.2450.

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USD/CHF: This currency trading instrument has gone down seriously, going further southwards as the EUR/USD goes further upwards. Since last week, this instrument has dropped 180 pips, and it is now below the resistance level at 0.9600, going towards the support level at 0.9550 (the next target).

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GBP/USD: The Cable has gone upwards by over 300 pips since last week. It has gone upwards by over 90 pips this week, resulting in a huge Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart. Further bullish movement is anticipated, for the price would reach the distribution territories at 1.3850, 1.3900 and 1.3950.

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USD/JPY: Since January 8, this pair has come down by nearly 300 pips. This has helped form a bearish bias on the market. The EMA 11 is below the EMA 56, and the RSI period 14 is below the level 50. Further downwards movement is anticipated as price goes further downwards by another 100 pips (minimum).

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EUR/JPY: The bullish signal on this cross is still valid – although the market is quite choppy. By all indication, the price should continue going upwards, reaching the supply zones at 136.00, 136.50 and 137.00. These are the targets for this week, and bearish attacks are not supposed to take price below the demand zones at 134.00 and 133.50.

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BITCOIN Analysis for January 16, 2018

Bitcoin has been quite under pressure recently having an indecisive South Korean situation which has confused the market sentiment. Bitcoin has recently breached below $13,000 price area which was an important event level and as the price residing below the level, more correction and volatility is expected in this market. Currently, there are certain situations of Crypto Exchange shut down which may lead to further down move in the future for the Bitcoin. As of the current scenario, the price is residing below $12,000 price area and expected to reach $11,000 in the coming days from where the bullish intervention is expected. As a Bullish Divergence is also emerging in the meantime, a bounce off 61.8 Fibonacci Expansion level has higher probability with the target towards $17,000 in the future. As the price remains above $11,000 the bullish pressure is expected to continue in Bitcoin.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for January 16, 2018

EUR/JPY has been quite bearish as expected after the bullish breakout above the important event level of 134.40. Today EUR struggled to match the economic reports of JPY which lead to further weakness leading to impulsive bearish momentum in the process. Today JPY Tertiary Industry Activity report showed an increase to 1.1% from the previous value of 0.2% which was expected to be at 0.4% and PPI report showed a decrease to 3.1% from the previous value of 3.6% which was expected to be at 3.3%. Despite the opposite results of the economic reports, the Tertiary Industry Activity report had been the most impactful economic reports this week which had a brilliant effect on the gains of JPY against EUR today. On the EUR side, today German Final CPI report was published unchanged as expected at 0.6%, German WPI report was published negative at -0.3% decreasing from the previous value of 0.5% which was expected to be at 0.3%. Moreover, Federal Government Budget also showed a greater deficit of -87.4B from the previous figure of -77.1B which helped JPY to gain further momentum in the process. As of the current scenario, JPY is expected to gain further momentum in the coming days before EUR takes on the long-term bullish pressure with the higher target area.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently showing some impulsive bearish pressure with some bullish rejection today. The price is expected to retest 134.40 support level in the coming days before showing any bullish pressure with the target towards 140.00 resistance area. As the price remains above 134.40 the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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Daily analysis of USDX for January 16, 2018

The index is recovering from the recent declines held since January 10th session. The recovery could go towards the 200 SMA around the resistance level of 91.75. That area could act as a dynamic resistance for USDX and the bears could gain momentum for another leg lower towards the support level of 89.36. MACD indicator remains in favor of the bulls.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 91.75 / 92.57

H1 chart's support levels: 90.59 / 89.36

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 90.59, take profit is at 89.36 and stop loss is at 91.81.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for January 17, 2018

GBP/USD remains to consolidate the price action below the 1.3800 mark and it seems we could expect a pullback in order to test the 200 SMA at the H1 chart. Around that area, a rebound is likely to happen in order to resume the bullish bias towards the 1.3846 level. However, to the downside, if the pair does a breakout of the moving average, then the next target would be the 1.3526 level.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3846 / 1.3979

H1 chart's support levels: 1.3612 / 1.3526

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.3846589, take profit is at 1.3979 and stop loss is at 1.3714.

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Brent fell under the fire of OPEC

It happened! What seemed like an impossible dream six months ago, managed to come true. "Bulls" in the North Sea grade tested a psychologically significant level of $70 per barrel, although they could not gain a foothold above it on the first attempt. Will they reach it the near future? On one hand, looking at such a serious upward trend, there will be few people who will think of actively selling oil, and corrections are quickly redeemed. On the other hand, black gold has "bear" drivers, which it still ignores. What should be done for the time being?

The prolongation of the OPEC agreement, strong global demand, geopolitical risks and bad weather in the US and China allowed Brent and WTI to add more than 50% to their value since June last year. The weakness of the US dollar also played into the hands of the bulls. It feels strained because of its inability to win back seemingly strong positive news in the form of tax reform, the potential acceleration of GDP and inflation, as well as in the form of aggressive monetary restriction of the Federal Reserve. Traded in dollar terms, commodities tend to increase during periods of weakness of the greenback. As a result of the influence of many "bullish" oil drivers, a stable upward trend was established, and speculative net longs reached record levels for Brent (574152 contracts) and maximum levels from 2006 for WTI (437,770 contracts).

Dynamics of speculative positions for Brent and WTI

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Source: Bloomberg.

It is logical that as the prices increase for hedge funds and other players, the desire to lock in profits increases, especially since Goldman Sachs warns about the risks of the OPEC rhetoric restraining the "bulls", and the number of drilling rigs from Baker Hughes after a lengthy marking time shifted with it, increasing at once by 10. In my opinion, the cartel's reluctance to impede the growth of the world economy and the increase in the activity of American producers can be key factors in the potential retracement of Brent and WTI.

The cartel and other parties participating in production cut-off agreement have already begun using verbal interventions. In particular, Iran said that OPEC will arrange $60 per barrel in the North Sea grade, and Russia noted that oil is growing due to bad weather (temporary factor) and maintained its forecast of an average price of $50-60 per barrel for 2018. At the same time the forecast of the Ministry of Energy Information about the growth of black gold in the United States to 10 million b/d d this year and up to 11 million b/d next year, has not been canceled. Judging by the dynamics of drilling rigs, American producers were banally waiting for further price increases in order to insure the risks of their potential reduction through futures contracts. This will allow them to actively increase production without worrying about the worsening of the black gold market.

Technically, as long as quotes of the North Sea grade are above $66.95 per barrel, the mood remains "bullish". The breakthrough support will strengthen the risks of pullback in the direction of $65 and $62.1.

Brent, daily chart

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Daily analysis of silver for January 16, 2018

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Overview

Silver price settles near the key resistance at 17.43, and we are still waiting to breach this level to confirm extending the bullish wave towards our next target at 18.30, reinforced by the positive signal that appears on stochastic. In general, we suggest continuation of the bullish trend domination in the upcoming period unless breaking 16.55 level and holding below it. The expected trading range for today is between 17.20 support and 17.50 resistance.

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