GBP/USD analysis for September 25, 2017

analytics59c90801b2100.png

Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading sideways at the price of 1.3505. According to the 15M time frame, I found lower lows and lower highs, which is a sign that sellers are in control. There is also an overbouth zone on RSI oscilator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of 1.3450.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3565

R2: 1.3600

R3: 1.3625

Support levels:

S1: 1.3510

S2: 1.3480

S3: 1.3450

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD analysis for September 25, 2017

analytics59c905e1a113a.png

Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.1862. According to the 30M time frame, I found a broken Asian ses. low and weak demand in the background, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found that price is trading in the downward channel, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. I placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential downward targets. I got Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of 1.1830 and Fibonacci expansion 161.8% at the price of 1.1760.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1935

R2: 1.1964

R3: 1.1965

Support levels:

S1: 1.1910

S2: 1.1888

S3: 1.1880

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for September 25, 2017

analytics59c902f7ef879.png

The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading sideways at the price of $3.775. The news about China is still a big threat for buyers.Chinese bitcoin exchange ViaBTC has announced it will cease trading at the end of September – the second exchange in as many days to do so.According to an announcement, following the recent statement from the People's Bank of China and other authorities on exchange regulation and ICO risks, ViaBTC has decided to shutter its China-facing website. The Techincal picture is still bearish and buyers are weak.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 1H time frame, I found strong resistance cluster at the price of $3.810. The strong support now became strong resistance, which is a sign that buying looks risky. There is also a broken rising wedge in the background, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. Downward targets are set at the price of $3.463 and $2.978.

Support/Resistance

$3.810 –Resistance cluster (price action)

$4.000 – Major cluster resistance (price action)

$3.651 – Intraday support (price action)

$3.463 – Pattern objective target

With InstaForex, you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for September 25, 2017

analytics59c8ed4e3f8ac.png

Daily Outlook

In February 2017, the depicted short-term downtrend was initiated around the depicted supply zone (0.7310-0.7380).

However, a recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

The price zone of 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) stood as a temporary resistance zone until a bullish breakout was expressed above 0.7230.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards the next supply zone around 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

Recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhances the bearish side of the market. This brings the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) where recent weak bullish recovery was manifested earlier in September.

An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern is being expressed on the depicted chart indicating high probability of bearish reversal.

The current price levels of 0.7320-0.7350 can be watched for a valid SELL entry if enough bearish rejection is expressed.

Breakdown of the neckline 0.7150 confirms the reversal pattern. Expected bearish targets are located around 0.7050, 0.6925 and eventually 0.6800.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for September 25, 2017

analytics59c8ecbb106e7.png

Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allows a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where price action should be watched for evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL Entry.

analytics59c8ecc3df3f0.png

Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend reversed when the Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout is being witnessed on the chart. The next Supply level to meet the pair is located around 1.2100 (Level of previous multiple bottoms) where bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry can be anticipated.

On the other hand, If bearish pullback persists below 1.1800 (the depicted uptrend line) and 1.1700, a quick bearish decline should be expected towards the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 where BUY entries can be offered.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Plan for EUR/USD and GBP/USD for September 25, 2017

analytics59c8e44d4b3d6.jpg

Technical outlook:

We are now entering into the last trading week for September 2017 and the trade setups are looking both promising and exciting for coming months. A short term chart has been presented with the most probable wave count in EUR/USD today. If you look at the counts here, an impulse wave (1) has been followed by a corrective wave (2) as labelled here. If this count proves to be true, prices should remain above 1.1860 levels and a quick wave (3) should be produced, followed by waves (4) and (5). This rally could take prices above 1.2100 levels easily and then reverse sharply lower towards the larger trend. Immediate support is seen at 1.1860 levels, while resistance is at 1.2090 levels respectively. On the flip side, a break below 1.1860 levels from here would prove extremely encouraging to bears.

Trading plan:

Aggressive traders should look to go long now, with stop below 1.1860, target at least 1.2100 levels.

Conservative traders please remain flat for now and look to go short above 1.2100 levels.

GBP/USD chart setups:

analytics59c8e6ef64781.jpg

Technical outlook:

The GBP/USD short-term wave count has been presented here, as we are approaching the last trading week for this month. A shorter-term wave count suggests there is still some upside left in GBP/USD before it looks to reverse lower again. The rally from 1.3440 through 1.3570 looks to be an impulse labelled as wave 1. The subsequent drop is in three waves labelled as wave 2. A bullish reversal here would confirm that the next probable move is on the north side towards 1.3650 levels at least. For this count to hold true, prices should remain above 1.3440 levels for now. Please note that this could be the last leg rally before GBP/USD reverses lower in a big way towards the larger down trend. The upside should be limited towards 1.3700/50 levels in this rally, with resistance in place at 1.3650/55 and support is seen through 1.3440 levels respectively.

Trading plan:

Aggressive traders could remain long for now with risk below 1.3440, target 1.3650 levels at least.

Conservative traders should remain flat for now and look to sell at higher levels.

Fundamental outlook:

Please watch out for ECB President Mr Draghi's speech at 09:00 AM EST today.

Good luck!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 25/09/2017

Global macro overview for 25/09/2017:

After receiving the biggest vote over the weekend, New Zealand's Prime Minister, Bill English is claiming the right to form the next government, but with the National Party's share of the vote only 46%, and only 58 seats in the 120 seat parliament, it looks as if he will need to form a coalition. The previous minority government worked with a supply agreement with the ACT (1 seat), but the arithmetic for this no longer works with the loss of one of the National Party's seats. So now, the most obvious choice for Bill English, would be a tie-up with the New Zealand First Party, which most known for its anti-immigration stance (they won 7.5% of the votes delivering 9 seats (down from 12)). Nevertheless, such a deal is by no means a certainty, and Jacinda Ardern, Labour's leader (Labour got 35.8% of the vote), is not giving up. A three-way coalition including the Greens cannot be ruled out. Labour's vote share delivered 45 seats, a rise of 13 seats taken broadly from all other parties, but in particular the Green Party, which lost 7 seats leaving it with 7 remaining.

In conclusion, political uncertainty is the only sure outcome over the coming weeks as coalition talks continue, which is likely to weigh on the NZD in the meantime as the markets do not like uncertain times.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/NZD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is moving inside of a parallel channel and the recent attempt to break out from it looks fake. The most importantly technical support is still the 38%Fibo at the level of 1.6130 as any violation of this level would immediately lead to the test of the level of 1.6000 and 50% Fibo at 1.5958.

analytics59c8df9869129.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 25/09/2017

Global macro overview for 25/09/2017:

Chancellor Merkel will remain in office for the fourth term, but support from other political factions will be needed. The main parties have historically achieved the worst results since the 1940s, with the Bundestag, with the third, the far right. In the lower chamber for the first time since the 1950s, there will be as many as six groups. After the first series of comments, expect the so-called: Jamaica-Coalition, that will include CDU / CSU, FDP and Green Party agreement. It is worth remembering that after the last coalition of the CDU / CSU the liberals threatened to disappear from the political scene of Germany, which should make the FDP not an easy coalition. Such a composition of the coalition and it's approximately 52% the number of votes reduces the chances for an ambitious reform agenda, especially as regards the functioning of the European Union (contradictory positions of the Greens and FDP).

In conclusion: political uncertainty is growing in Germany. In the nearest future, European policy will adversely affect the strength of the Euro and the valuation of European assets. The illusion created after the French presidential (and Dutch parliamentary) elections has ended, suggesting that the support for extremist groups and movements has begun to sharply decrease.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. After the clear rejection of 78%Fibo at the level of 134.31, the price has started to decrease towards the next important technical support at the level of 132.01. This view is being supported by overbought market conditions and downward pointing momentum indicator.

analytics59c8d98468281.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for September 25, 2017

EUR/USD has been quite volatile lately which recently showed bearish impulsiveness after the FOMC Statement and Federal Funds rate report was published. EUR/USD has struggled to break above the 1.2050 resistance level which leads to further bearish pressure which is expected to continue further in the coming days. As of the German Election yesterday Merkel has won a majority of the votes as expected yet the result to be published and the effect is expected to remain for weeks. Today German Ifo Business Climate report was published with a decrease to 115.2 from the previous figure of 115.9 which was expected to have a slight increase to 116.0. On the USD side, today FOMC Member Dudley and FOMC Member Evans are going to speak about the interest rate decision and upcoming monetary policies which are expected to have a moderate impact on the market today. To sum up, EUR has shown weakness already after the German Election this week which is expected to continue further whereas USD has been quite hawkish in nature recently and have high impact economic reports like Quarterly GDP to be published this week. Until EUR comes up with positive economic reports to shake out the USD gains, USD is expected to gain more in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently residing below 1.1900 resistance level after the pair started the week with a bearish GAP today. Though the GAP has been filled already and the price rejected the bull off the GAP area which is expected to lead the price further down towards 1.1710 support level in the coming days. As the price remains below 1.1900 with a daily close the bearish pressure is expected to continue further.

analytics59c8d7e562761.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for 25/09/2017

According to James Altucher (an American hedge fund manager) newsletter report, Amazon will soon begin accepting Bitcoin payments, which will officially be announced on October 26 at their conference. Co-founder of the world's largest online store is known for sharing information that helps to leverage modern tools in a positive way. Bitcoin is now one of them. Amazon Web Services has partnered with Digital Currency Group in 2016, one of the largest Bitcoin companies, as well as other investment firms, financial institutions, and cryptocurrency experts. Amazon's goal is to mediate between DCG's portfolio and customers in a digital currency exchange. Altucher claims that the announcement of this news may cause Bitcoin's value to increase, contrary to what Dimon told JP Morgan recently. What contributed to the cryptanalysts' appeal was their ability to revolutionize everything in the financial sphere - from changing governments to unethical banking practices, because there is no centralized server.

Let's take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The price is still trading around the weekly pivot at the level of $3,738, still below the dashed black trend line. Nevertheless, the market is picking up from the oversold conditions and might trigger the up move anytime soon as the larger time frame trend remains bullish. The key area to the upside is still the zone between the levels of $4,000 - $4,1111.

analytics59c8cb7c678ee.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for 25/09/2017

Trading plan for 25/09/2017:

The Euro and the New Zealand Dollar are under pressure of weekend voting results, and the politics also has a negative impact on the Yen's strength. Chancellor Merkel will remain in office for the fourth term, but support from another political faction will be needed. NZD is losing almost one percent (NZD / USD is at 0.7275) after the ruling Conservative Party was unable to get the majority.

On Monday 25th of September, the event calendar is light in the important news release, but the market participants will keep an eye on Ifo Busines Climate data from Germany and speeches from FOMC Member William Dudley and Charles Evans. ECB President Mario Draghi will be speaking as well later during the day.

EUR/USD analysis for 25/09/2017:

The Ifo data were all worse than anticipated. Ifo Business Climate was released at the level of 115.2 points, while the market participants expected a number of 116.0 points after 115.7 points a month ago. The Ifo Current Assesment was released at the level of 123.6 points while the market participants expected 124,7 points, just as a month ago. The last Ifo indicator, Ifo Expectations was weaker as well as it was released at 107.4 points, while market participants expected 108.0, just as a month ago. Despite the fact, that this month's Ifo figures, which are based on ca. 7,000 monthly survey responses of firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesaling and retailing) are slightly worse than expected, the levels of sentiment in Germany are still elevated and still will support the Euro across the board. It will be interesting to see the change in sentiment after the parliamentary election, but this will be available next month.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The pair gaped down slightly but the gap was quickly filled and now the level of 1.1936 will act as an intraday resistance. The pair is trading inside of a horizontal range between the levels of 1.1821 - 1.2000 as the upward momentum is decreasing. The market participants must wait for the decisive breakout in either direction now, but the larger time frame outlook remains bullish.

analytics59c8c73eaaa09.jpg

Market Snapshot: Gold still inside of a channel

The price of Gold continues to trade inside of the golden channel after the attempt to break through the technical resistance at the level of $1,298 failed. The market conditions are still oversold, but the momentum is not pointing to the north, so the possibility of another leg down in this market is still high. The next technical support is seen at the level of $1,276.

analytics59c8c74d76e9f.jpg

Market Snapshot: Bounces from support

After a failed rally towards new high, the NZD/USD dropped to the level of 0.7247, where the technical support was. Currently, the market bounced from that support but is still locked in a trading range between the levels of 0.7343 - 0.7247. The most important resistance for bulls is the area between the levels of 0.7391 - 0.7435.

analytics59c8c75677036.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for September 25, 2017

GBPUSDDaily.png

Overview:

  • Pivot: 1.3458.
  • The GBP/USD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.3458. Today, the first support level is currently seen at 1.3298, the price is moving in a bullish channel now.
  • Furthermore, the price has been set above the strong support at the level of 1.3298, which coincides with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
  • This support has been rejected three times confirming the veracity of an uptrend. According to the previous events, we expect the GBP/USD pair to trade between 1.3298 and 1.3655.
  • So, the support is seen at 1.3298, while daily resistance is found at 1.3655. Therefore, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.3298.
  • In other words, buy orders are recommended above the spot of 1.3298 with the first target at the level of 1.3655; and continue towards 1.3886 in coming days.
  • However, if the GBP/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.3655 today, the market will decline further to 1.3298.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for September 25, 2017

EURUSDH1.png

Overview:

  • Last week, the EUR/USD pair fell from the level of 1.1994 towards 1.1897. Right now, the price is set at 1.1924. The resistance is seen at the level of 1.1994 and 1.2037. Moreover, the price area of 1.1994/1.2037 remains a significant resistance zone. Therefore, there is a possibility that the EUR/USD pair will move downside and the structure of a fall does not look corrective. The trend is still below the 100 EMA for that the bearish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the downside. Thus, amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 1.1964 and 1.1897. If the EUR/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.1994, the market will decline further to 1.1897 as the first target. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a negative spot and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 1.1837 so as to test the double bottom. On the contrary, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 1.2037, then this scenario may become invalidated.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan: 25 - 29.09.2017

Trading plan: 25 - 29/09/2017

The general picture: The market is preparing for the movement.

Monday morning is influenced by the elections in Germany. Formally, Merkel won but in fact, significantly weakened the position of Merkel inside Germany.

The CDU party lost 8% compared to the previous elections and received 33%. The main thing is that the second party of the SPD party leaves the ruling coalition for opposition. Merkel will be forced to create a coalition with small parties, the Free Democrats and the Greens.

The EUR/USD rate fell at the opening with a gap of 45 points, then the gap was closed.

We see a clear range with the actual boundaries of 1.1860 and 1.2005.

We are ready to sell at breakthrough 1.1860 down and buy at the break of 1.2005 upward.

Stop-loss for 45 points, the minimum profit is 100 points.

analytics59c8b4ac1341b.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Sept 25, 2017

Forex analysis review
Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Sept 25, 2017

EURUSD will fall due to elections in Germany

EURUSD will fall due to elections in Germany.

Last minute burning forecast 25.09.2017

The main event on Monday morning: the results of the elections in Germany - the elections strongly weakened Merkel, this will put pressure on the euro.

Merkel's Party (CDU) won first place (33%), but this is the worst result in nearly 70 years of elections, a 9% loss compared to the previous elections. The second concern - AfD got the third place with 12% ("Alternative for Germany") - a radical right-wing semi-fascists, many call them heirs of the Hitler party of the NSDAP.

But the main concern for Merkel is the Socialists (SPD), the second strongest party (20% of the vote) - which pulled out of Merkel's coalition and then went into opposition.

Thus, the only option for Merkel is to form a majority in the parliament - and get the post of Chancellor - head of government - in order to create a coalition with two small parties - the Free Democrats and the Greens - 11% and 9% of the vote. This makes Merkel and her government quite vulnerable and objectively weak.

The weakening of Germany's domestic authorities is inevitably weakening the EU as a whole.

This weakens the EURUSD pair.

We sell the euro from 1.1940 - and are prepared to sell for a breakthrough down from 1.1860.

The level of a cancellation in selling: 1.2005 - with the breakthrough of 1.2005 and afterwards we buy.

analytics59c8aee73d4da.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for September 25, 2017

USDJPYM30.png

USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish bias above 111.95. The technical outlook of the pair is bullish as the prices are supported by a bullish trend line since September 22. The 20-period moving average is turning up and is about to cross above the 50-period one. The relative strength index is calling for a new upleg.

Hence, as long as 111.95 is not broken, look for a further upside to 112.60 and even to 113.00 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a short position is recommended below 111.95 with a target at 111.60.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 111.95, Take Profit: 112.60

Resistance levels: 112.60, 113.00 and 113.45 Support Levels: 111.60, 111.20, 110.80

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for September 25, 2017

USDCHFM30.png

USD/CHF is expected to trade with a bearish outlook. The pair is supported by a rising trend line since September 22, which confirms a bullish view. The golden cross between the 20-period and 50-period moving averages has been identified, indicating a positive signal. The relative strength index is calling for a new upleg.

Therefore, as long as 0.9675 holds on the downside, look for a further rise with targets at 0.9745 and 0.9765 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot points indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 0.9675, Take Profit: 0.9745

Resistance levels: 0.9745, 0.9765, and 0.9795

Support levels: 0.9650, 0.9625, and 0.9775

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for September 25, 2017

GBPJPYM30.png

From the technical point of view on GBP/JPY, the 30 minutes relative strength index is around its neutrality area and crossed above its signal line. The pair has been drawing to a support area at 151.50.

As a consequence, as long as 151.50 holds as support, a rebound towards 152.90 and at 153.40 is expected.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a short position is recommended below 151.50 with the target at 151.15.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 151.50, Take Profit: 152.90

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates long positions; and when it is below the pivot points, it indicates short positions. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 152.90, 153.40 and 154.00

Support levels: 151.15, 150.60, and 150.00

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for September 25, 2017

The Dollar index made a bullish reversal on Friday and held above cloud and trend line support. This price action justifies continuation of the upward bounce as long as price is above 91.80.

analytics59c8aa59de404.png

Blue line - resistance trend line (broken)

The Dollar index broke above the trend line and the 4-hour Kumo (cloud). It pulled back to back test the breakout area and is now bouncing higher. Bulls need to see a higher high above 92.70 to be more confident of the bullish short-term trend. Support is at 92-91.70 area.

analytics59c8aaae224a6.png

Red lines - bearish channel

The Dollar index remains inside the daily bearish channel and below the daily Kumo (cloud). Price is now trading above the kijun-sen. A daily close above it will open the way for a move higher towards 93-94.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for September 25, 2017

Gold price remains inside the bearish channel still. Price is trading above recent lows. There are increased chances of a new lower low towards $1,285-80 but I believe the downside is very limited, while the upside potential is very big.

analytics59c8a7dc9c1d5.jpg

Red lines - bearish channel

Blue lines - bullish divergence signs

Gold price is below the tenkan- and kijun-sen in the 4-hour chart and inside the bearish channel. Support is at $1,290 and next one at $1,280. Resistance is at $1,300 and next one at $1,316. I believe that Gold price could make another stop run to shake out weak bulls and then reverse.

analytics59c8a8cc30c45.jpg

Magenta line - resistance

Blue line - long-term support trend line

Gold price is pulling back from the resistance trend line. This pullback is considered one great buying opportunity. I believe that Gold will bottom around $1,290-$1,280 and then reverse to start the next big upward move towards $1,400. I remain longer-term bullish about Gold.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for September 25, 2017

NZDUSDM30.png

Our first downward target which we predicted in our previous analysis has been hit. NZD/USD is expected to trade with a bearish outlook. The pair retreated from 0.7340 (the high of September 22) and broke below the lower boundary of Bollinger Bands, which signaled the continuation of bearish trend. The 20-period moving average is turning down. The relative strength index shows downward momentum.

To conclude, below 0.7315, look for a further decline with targets at 0.7245 and 0.7220 in extension.

The black line is showing the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which indicates long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines is showing the support levels and the green line is indicating the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7340, 0.7360, and 0.7410

Support levels: 0.7245, 0.7220, and 0.7180

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 25, 2017

analytics59c893536a4ac.png

Wave summary:

We did not see the expected minor break above 1.6441 but saw a direct corrective decline to just below our expected corrective target at 1.6245 (the corrective low was seen at 1.6232). From here a new rally has been seen. This rally has already moved above the resistance at 1.6429 and should continue towards 1.6690 and 1.6875 as the next upside targets.

Longer term, we continue to look for much higher levels.

R3: 1.6569

R2: 1.6532

R3: 1.6488

Pivot: 1.6400

S1: 1.6385

S2: 1.6312

S3: 1.6232

Trading recommendation:

We bought EUR at 1.6265. We will lift our stop to 1.6225. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy a break above 1.6451 and use the same stop at 1.62255.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 25, 2017

analytics59c8919828c21.png

Wave summary:

As long as support at 133.24 is able to protect the downside, we will keep our focus towards the upside for a continuation higher towards 134.80 and 136.14 on the way towards the ideal wave D target at 137.36.

From 137.36 or upon a direct break below support at 133.24 a zig-zag decline in wave E will be expected to complete the huge triangle consolidation, that has been developing since July 2008.

R3: 136.14

R2: 134.80

R1: 134.41

Pivot: 134.00

S1: 133.24

S2: 132.94

S3: 132.61

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 131.76 with stop placed at 133.15. We will take half profit at 134.80.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Sept 25, 2017

EURUSD.jpg

When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as German Ifo Business Climate. But today, the US will not release any Economic Data, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1984.

Strong Resistance:1.1977.

Original Resistance: 1.1965.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1953.

Target Inner Area: 1.1925.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1897.

Original Support: 1.1885.

Strong Support: 1.1873.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1866.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Sept 25, 2017

USDJPY.jpg

In Asia, Japan will release the Flash Manufacturing PMI data, but the US today will not release any Economic Data. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 112.97.

Resistance. 2: 112.75.

Resistance. 1: 112.53.

Support. 1: 112.25.

Support. 2: 112.03

Support. 3: 111.81.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD/JPY remain bullish for a further push up

We look to continue to buy above major support at 88.92 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) for a further push up to 89.79 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance).

Stochastic (34,3,1) is bouncing up nicely from our 5% support and still has some upside potential to go which coincides with the wise we expect at the price.

Buy above 88.92. Stop loss is at 88.40. Take profit is at 89.79.

analytics59c8643296b0f.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/JPY bouncing nicely off support, remain bullish

The price has dropped to our buying area and has started to bounce off as expected. We remain bullish looking to buy on dips above 111.71 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support) for a further push up to at least 113.41 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance).

RSI (34) sees support above 50% where we expect further bullish momentum from.

Buy above 111.71. Stop loss is at 110.97. Take profit is at 113.41.

analytics59c863fb83936.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD/USD profit target reached perfectly, prepare to sell

The price has bounced up perfectly from our buying area and reached our profit target perfectly. We prepare to sell on major resistance at 0.7991 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) for a push down back to 0.7916 support (Fibonacci extension, Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major resistance below 94% where we expect a further drop from.

Sell below 0.7991. Stop loss is at 0.8037. Take profit is at 0.7916.

analytics59c863ab7a315.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/JPY dropping nicely, remain bearish

The price continues to test our major resistance at 134.15 (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance) and we expect to see a drop form this level to at least 132.01 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support). Do take note of the bullish ascending channel we're seeing as we might see the price bounces off this level and only a break of the channel would see a stronger drop towards our profit target.

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major resistance at 96% and we expect a drop from this level. It also displays good downside potential for our drop.

Sell below 134.15. Stop loss is at 134.92. Take profit is at 132.01.

analytics59c863756c9dd.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/CHF bouncing up nicely remain bullish

The price continues to inch down towards our buying area. We remain bullish looking to buy on dips above 0.9679 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support) for a further push up to 0.9757 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance).

RSI (34) has made a bullish exit of our triangle formation and sees an ascending support line holding it up really well.

Buy above 0.9679. Stop loss is at 0.9629. Take profit is at 0.9757.

analytics59c86342a058e.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

NZD/USD starting to face resistance, prepare to sell

The price has bounced up perfectly from our buying area last week. Now we're seeing the price testing a strong resistance at 0.7343 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap resistance) and we expect to see a strong reaction from here to push the price down to at least 0.7279 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support, Fibonacci retracement) once again.

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major resistance at 95% and we expect to see a strong reaction off this level too.

Sell below 0.7343. Stop loss is at 0.7390. Take profit is at 0.7279.

analytics59c8630b23f94.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of major pairs for September 25, 2017

EUR/USD: This pair went upwards on September 18 and 19, went downwards on September 20, but it made some bullish attempt again on September 21 and 22. Since there has been no clear victory between bull and bear, the neutrality in the market remains. This week, the price would either go above the resistance line at 1.2050 (staying above it); or price would go below the support line at 1.1850 staying below it. That is what would create a directional bias.

1.png

USD/CHF: This market is bullish in the short-term. The price consolidated in the first few days of last week, and then rose upwards. The price should go further north this week, a clean Bullish Confirmation Pattern would be generated in the market. However, a bearish movement from this point would lead to some neutrality.

2.png

GBP/USD: The GBP/USD consolidated throughout last week – albeit in the context of an uptrend. There would be a breakout to the upside this week, which would most probably be in favor of bulls, for the outlook on GBP pairs is bullish for this week. The distribution territories at 1.3550, 1.3600 and 1.3650 would be tested before the end of the month.

3.png

USD/JPY: This currency trading instrument went upwards last week and consolidated on Friday. The bias on the market is bullish and further bullish movement is anticipated this week as price goes towards the supply levels at 112.50, 113.00 and 113.50. The outlook on JPY pairs is bullish for the week.

4.png

EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY went upwards last week, before being corrected on Friday. The correction could unfold further, but it may not be significant enough to threaten the extant bullish outlook on the market, which means the bearish correction would end up giving opportunities to buy long at better prices.

5.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of USDX for September 25, 2017

The index hovers around the 200 SMA and remains to wait for a fresh catalyst that defines the path for the short-term. The support zone of 91.67 has been tested several times and it seems a decisive move could take place around it. However, bulls have been trying to push USDX above the 200 SMA at H1 chart and if it succeeds, we can expect further gains towards 93.09.

1506285449_USDXH1.png

H1 chart's resistance levels: 93.09 / 94.04

H1 chart's support levels: 91.67 / 90.30

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 91.67, take profit is at 90.30 and stop loss is at 93.04.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of GBP/USD for September 25, 2017

The pair still remains within a narrow range established below the resistance level of 1.3592 across the board and looks to test the 200 SMA at H1 chart. Fractals have been formed during retracement and if GBP/USD manages to rebound above the 200 SMA, we can expect further gains to reach the next key target around 1.3755. MACD indicator is still in the negative territory, favoring to more declines.

1506285410_GBPUSDH1.png

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3592 / 1.3755

H1 chart's support levels: 1.3309 / 1.3209

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.3592, take profit is at 1.3755 and stop loss is at 1.3430.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Great Britain in the battle for investment

Eurozone

On Monday, a group of IFO indicators will be published. Taking into account the fact that the ZEW showed steady growth earlier, it can be expected that the IFO indices will eventually show growth for the month of August.

On Thursday, Gfk's Consumer Confidence Index for the month of October and a group of indicators gauging the state of the euro-zone economy from the European Commission will be released. Forecasts for them are also optimistic. The main event of the week is the publication of inflation data on Friday. Experts expect a slight increase in overall inflation but the base will be slowing down. The main reason for this is the growth of the euro in recent months.

analytics59c60f955ea80.png

On Sunday, federal elections will be held in Germany. The growth of political risks will contribute to the weakening of the euro with the probability of correction to 1.16 being high.

United Kingdom

The key event of the past week is the program speech of Prime Minister Theresa May which was entirely devoted to the relationship between Great Britain and the European Union. May detailed her position on the transition period, her financial obligations, and the rights of EU citizens. However, she avoided any specifics about the trade. On one hand, May criticized the agreements between the EU. On the other, she spoke about agreements with Norway and Canada, stating that the existing nature of the relationship would allow the parties to conclude something completely new.

Obviously, the issue of trade at the moment is the key driver, since it directly affects financial stability and will be the basis of investment activity. It is important to recall that the decision about Brexit was taken in the UK at the highest level, at a time when Europe was subjected to a massive and some directed influx of migrants. The UK intended to regulate relations with the EU in its favor, limiting the influx of migrants to its territory, but opening the door to capital. This could begin the exodus from the problem areas, while retaining all trade preferences. The EU, of course, quickly understood this plan and linked all the controversial issues into a single package, which is the main reason for the complete lack of progress in the negotiations.

On Monday, the fourth round of negotiations will begin. In addition, the conference of trade unions of Great Britain will begin on Sunday. Politics goes into the expectations of the pound to the fore, which is especially noticeable against the backdrop of a calm week in terms of macroeconomic publications. The two most important releases, Gfk's consumer confidence index and Lloyds Business Barometer, will be released on Thursday and Friday. Both have negative dynamics and indicate that growth in the UK will be weak in the near future.

analytics59c60faa9bcb8.png

The tightening of the Bank of England's positions and a number of previously published macroeconomic data contributed to a sharp increase in the pound. This week, bulls can try to achieve success. First of all, for the concerns crosses of EUR/GBP, you can expect a decrease to 0.8690 and further, as well as crosses against the franc and the yen. At the same time, the GBP/USD rate will be more oriented towards news from the US, in the expectation of a return to the growth of the dollar. In this case, the trade will be lower than the maximum formed on September 20.

Oil

A number of positive factors contribute to the growth of speculative demand. Brent was fixed above $ 56/bbl and does not intend to stop. By the end of March, Nigeria, which was previously exempt from restrictions, may join the OPEC + countries. The observance of all agreements by the parties to the agreement indicates that the OPEC + countries have understood all the benefits from managing the production volume to controlling the price rate. Therefore, the prospects for the agreement are quite positive.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

US Dollar: attempts to turn direction are more insistent

The dollar showed mixed dynamics during trading on Friday and did not have a definite direction. After the FOMC raised its market expectations for a December rate hike up to 70% by its rather aggressive statement on Wednesday, investors on Friday weighed in the speeches of three Committee members who disclosed details of their outlook for the situation.

The head of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, John Williams, said that he does not expect serious shocks in the markets because of the beginning of the policy of normalizing the balance sheet. The Fed has already announced its intentions for quite some time, the markets have taken into account the plan, and now it only needs to carefully monitor the development of the situation. On the topic of rates, Williams expressed complete agreement with the forecast of the Fed, saying that he sees a long-term goal of the interest rate at 2.5% for two years and suggests that the rate will be raised again this year and three times in the next.

A little later, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas, Esther George, almost verbatim repeated the main arguments of Williams, adding that postponing the tightening of the policy could create risks in the long term, and called for dismissal of the low inflation rates, as "wages grow faster than prices." Meanwhile, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Robert Kaplan added that aside from strengthening the "cyclical inflationary pressures," it is necessary to take into account the structural changes in the economy associated with the transition to a new technological level that offsets inflationary pressures.

Thus, the leadership of the Fed demonstrates a united stance, and there is no internal discussion that could call into question the implementation of the plan. Also, there is no concern that there will be four vacancies in the Fed soon. Vice-Chairman Stanley Fischer will resign in October, and Janet Yellen's term will expire in February. Obviously, the markets are not afraid of interference in the policy of the Fed, particularly by Donald Trump, who during the pre-election race, subjected the Fed's policy to rather serious criticism.

Meanwhile, the preliminary reading of PMI Markit in the services sector was just below expectations and came in at 55.1p in August, against 56.0p a month earlier. The moderated expansion continues in the manufacturing sector, the index increased from 52.8p to 53.0p, but in the indicators of orders there is a clear stagnation - there is no growth export sales, new orders have minimal growth rates for the year, as well as output.

analytics59c60e9ace39c.png

Markit analysts attribute some slowdown to the impact of the hurricane, which led to a temporary disruption in production and a rise in raw material prices due to supply issues, and believe that a temporary slowdown should not be given much bearing. GDP growth rates in Q3 are also unlikely to be high. In any case, the GDPNow model from the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank forecasts a 2.2% growth, which looks clearly unconvincing, especially after the Fed raised its GDP forecast for the current year.

This week, special attention will be directed to the publication of the PCE deflator for August and data on personal incomes and expenditures on Friday. The report can have a significant impact on the expectations of the dollar, as it will allow the assessment of the level of inflation. Also, in the current situation, a positive dynamics is necessary for personal incomes,as its absence will cast doubt on the position of the Fed, which expects inflationary pressures to be strengthened by outpacing growth in wages.

On Wednesday, a report on orders for durable goods in August will be released. Despite the fact that consumer confidence has been declining in recent months, it remains at confidently high levels, and the trend towards the growth of large purchases by consumers can indicate changes in consumer sentiment.

The dollar completes the months-long period of weakening. The market will not ignore the Fed's position and will wait for support from macroeconomic indicators, as well as news about tax and medical reform. These developments have highest chances to show growth in the dollar against the yen, the franc and the euro.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com