Technical analysis of EUR/USD for June 01, 2018

EUR/USD is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. The pair posted a rebound from 1.1635 (around the low of May 31), which should limit the downside potential. Both rising 20-period and 50-period moving averages are playing support roles. The relative strength index has just landed on its neutrality area at 50% and is turning up. To conclude, as long as 1.1635 holds on the downside, look for a further rise with targets at 1.1700 and 1.1730 in extension.

Fundamental Overview: The euro trades down 0.1% against the dollar at 1.1690 in early trade today, but stays well above the low this week of 1.1509. Italy's populist parties reached a deal to form a government, easing fears of new elections, which has helped stabilize the euro. here is further political uncertainty in Spain too, with Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy looking likely to be removed. This "won't help the current mood, though it expects the euro to stay above Tuesday's low.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines show the support levels, while the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 1.1700, 1.1730, and 1.1770

Support levels: 1.1615, 1.1590, and 1.1550

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for June 01, 2018

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Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot point indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, stop loss at 1.3275, take profit at 1.3350.

Resistance levels: 1.3350, 1.3380, and 1.3410

Support levels: 1.3275, 1.3250, and 1.3205

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Review of GOLD for a week of June 1 on simplified wave analysis

Wave picture of the chart D1:

Quotations of gold since December 2016 keep a steady vector on the "north" of the chart. The current wave formed the final part (C) in a larger-scale wave model and is not yet completed.

The wave pattern of the graph H1:

The price has formed a bearish zigzag since April 11. In turn, it is part of a more massive bearish wave model. The upper boundary of the preliminary target zone is located at around 1250 dollars / ounce.

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The wave pattern of the M15 chart:

Since May 21, the ascending structure is developing. Completion of the entire recovery is most likely in the zone of design resistance.

Recommended trading strategy:

Gold sales can be used for trading on the small scale of the schedule. When trading on the N1 timeframe, higher traders must wait for the completion of the bearish correction and look for signals to buy.

Resistance zones:

- 1310.0 / 1320.0

Support zones:

- 1290.0 / 1280.0

Explanations to the figures:

A simplified wave analysis uses a simple waveform, in the form of a 3-part zigzag (ABC). The last incomplete wave for every timeframe is analyzed. Zones show the calculated areas with the greatest probability of a turn.

Arrows indicate the counting of wave according to the technique used by the author. The solid background shows the generated structure and the dotted exhibits the expected wave motion.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of the tool movements in time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need to confirm the signals used by your trading systems.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / JPY pair for the week of June 1 for simplified wave analysis

Wave picture of the chart D1:

The dominant direction of the price on the cross chart since June 2016 is set by an upward wave. The wave level of the entire motion approaches the W1 chart. The structure of the wave is not complete. Its last descending section took the place of correction.

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The wave pattern of the graph H1:

The last bearish wave counting from April 24 has reached the upper limit of the calculated completion zone, but no reversal signals on the chart have been observed so far.

The wave pattern of the M15 chart:

Towards the main direction of the price move from May 29 formed a bullish movement. The wave does not have a reversal potential and it will most likely take the place of an intermediate rollback.

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Recommended trading strategy:

Trading on the N1 chart and above after the completion of the entire bearish correction, you need to wait for the signals to buy. Preferring to trade on smaller time frame makes sense in the resistance zone to sell the pair.

Resistance zones:

- 129.00 / 129.50

Support zones:

- 125.00 / 124.50

Explanations to the figures:

A simplified wave analysis uses a simple waveform, in the form of a 3-part zigzag (ABC). The last incomplete wave for every time frame is analyzed. Zones show the calculated areas with the greatest probability of a turn.

Arrows indicate the counting of wave according to the technique used by the author. The solid background shows the generated structure and the dotted exhibits the expected wave motion.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of the tool movements in time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need to confirm the signals used by your trading systems.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis and trading recommendations for the EURUSD currency pair as of June 1, 2018

The correction stage, how long we waited for it and finally it arrived. The currency pair still managed to find a support in the area of 1.1500, where after a fleeting slowdown, buyers returned to the market. Now the quotation has already reached the periodic level of 1.1720, where at the same time there is an interlacing with the Fibo value. Has correction come to an end? I would not be so critical about this issue, we have previously seen a colossal downward movement and the "bears" still need a breather. What we have now is the compression between the values of 1.1650/1.1720, but this is a temporary factor, and we should carefully analyze the fixations beyond these boundaries.

But, as what was written earlier, "bears" still need a respite, so there is an inclination to break the upper boundary, with the prospect of a move to 1.1800/1.1900. Now they took on a position on the" fence", in anticipation of clear fixations.

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Daily review of EUR/USD as of June 1, 2018. Ichimoku Indicator

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EUR/USD

The pair is in the zone of attraction of important levels, as a result, the nature of the monthly May candle turned out to be rather ambiguous. In case of reliable fastening above the zone (1.1670-1.1708), conditions will appear for the formation of a clearing from the weekly cloud (Senkou Span A 1.1681), and also this arrangement will return to the monthly cloud (Senkou Span A 1.1670), as a result, the testing of its upper limit, with the aim of breakdown, will become relevant. Therefore, players on the decline to save their benefits and plans it is important to stay within the influence of 1,1670 – 1,1708, preserving the area as the center of gravity and not allowing it to turn into the support area.

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The early time intervals today are in solidarity with the importance of the moment. Fulfilled target for the breakout clouds N1, encountered the resistance of the clouds H4, the breakout of which will form a new bullish target, allowing the pair to proceed to the elimination of the dead cross of day. Support from the lower halves, capable of contributing to the breakdown of the resistance zone, can be noted at 1.1620.

Indicator parameters:

all time intervals 9 - 26 - 52

Color of indicator lines:

Tenkan (short-term trend) - red,

Kijun (medium-term trend) - green,

Fibo Kijun is a green dotted line,

Chinkou is gray,

clouds: Senkou Span B (SSB, long-term trend) - blue,

Senkou Span A (SSA) - pink.

Color of additional lines:

support and resistance MN - blue, W1 - green, D1 - red, H4 - pink, H1 - gray,

horizontal levels (not Ichimoku) - brown,

trend lines - purple.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for for June 1, 2018

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The price zone of 0.7320-0.7390 stood as a significant supply zone during recent bullish pullback. The bulls failed to execute a successful Bullish breakout above 0.7400 during the previous week's consolidations.

The NZD/USD pair had been trapped between the price levels of 0.7170 and 0.7350 until bearish breakdown of 0.7200 occurred.

Since April 13, significant bearish pressure has been applied. This probably turns the short-term outlook for the NZD/USD pair into bearish giving considerable significance to the multiple-top reversal pattern.

That's why, bearish breakdown of 0.7220-0.7170 (neckline zone) was needed to confirm the depicted reversal pattern. Bearish target levels around 0.7050 and 0.7000 have been achieved already.

The bearish scenario needs obvious bearish persistence below 0.7050 to maintain significant bearish momentum towards 0.6860 and 0.6820. That's why, the price level of 0.7050 is currently considered a key-level for the NZD/USD bears.

Any bullish breakout above the price level of 0.7050 hinders further bearish decline allowing bullish pullback to occur towards 0.7170-0.7220.

On the other hand, If bearish momentum persists, the price zone of 0.6820-0.6780 will be the next destination for the NZD/USD pair. It should be watched for bullish rejection and a possible valid BUY entry.

Any bullish pullback towards the price level of 0.7050 (Broken Demand-Level) should be watched for a valid SELL entry. S/L should be placed above 0.7100.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for June 1, 2018

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Daily Outlook

The short-term outlook turns to become bearish as long as the EUR/USD pair keeps trading below the broken uptrend as well as the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range remains broken.

Bearish persistence below the price level of 1.2200 allowed further bearish decline towards the price levels of 1.1990 and 1.1880.

The price zone (1.1850-1.1750) failed to offer sufficient bullish demand when a descending high was established around the price level of 1.1980.

The EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets. Instead, significant bearish pressure is being applied since then.

As bearish momentum dominates, bearish persistence below 1.1700-1.1750 (zone of previous daily lows) was maintained to enhance further bearish decline towards 1.1520 and probably 1.1420.

The price zone (1.1520-1.1415) is considered a prominent Demand zone to be watched for bullish price action and valid BUY entries. Early signs of bullish rejection have already been expressed around 1.1500 (within the depicted demand zone).

On the other hand, conservative traders should wait for bullish pullback towards the price zone (1.1850-1.1750) for valid SELL entries if the current bullish pullback persists.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily review of GBP/USD as of June 1, 2018. Ichimoku Indicator

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GBP/USD

The pair closed the month of May in the area of the zone of influence of fairly strong supports - 1.3200 -1.3144 (monthly Fibo Kijun + weekly Senkou Span A). Therefore, bears who have performed an effective decline in this area may take a break. Daytime Tenkan, which limits all the nascent corrections before it, is now a significant resistance. Fastening above the daily short-term trend (1.3347) will allow to consider the possibility of rebound from the lower boundary of the weekly cloud (1.3204) and will contribute to the development of an upward correction. The benchmarks in this case will be levels 1.3502 - 1.3640 - 1.3790.

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Indicator parameters:

all time intervals 9 - 26 - 52

Color of indicator lines:

Tenkan (short-term trend) - red,

Kijun (medium-term trend) - green,

Fibo Kijun is a green dotted line,

Chinkou is gray,

clouds: Senkou Span B (SSB, long-term trend) - blue,

Senkou Span A (SSA) - pink.

Color of additional lines:

support and resistance MN - blue, W1 - green, D1 - red, H4 - pink, H1 - gray,

horizontal levels (not Ichimoku) - brown,

trend lines - purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for June 01, 2018

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $7.583. he government of India has formally rejected Venezuela's state-backed cryptocurrency, the petro, despite an attempt to entice India with a 30% discount. Dependent on the Latin American country's oil, a steady, uninterrupted supply is key to growing one of the world's most populous nations. Venezuela is in the midst of dramatically bad economic fortune compounded by US sanctions, forcing its government to devise ever-more creative ways to stay afloat. The technical picture on Bitcoin looks bullish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the H1 time - frame, I found a broken downward channel in the background, which is a sign that buyers are in control. I also found a potential end of a intraday bearish corrective phase, which is anotehr sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of $7.771 and at the price of $8.103.

Support/Resistance

$7.583 – Intraday resistance

$7.380– Intraday support

$7.771 – Objective target 1

$8.103 – Objective target 2

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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EUR/USD analysis for June 01, 2018

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.1723. Anyway, according to the H1 time – frame, I found potential end of upward correction, which is a sign that buying at this stage looks risky. I also found a hidden bearish divergence on the MACD oscillator in creation, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential breakout of the upward trendline to confirm a further downward movement. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.1640 and at the price of 1.1600.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1701

R2: 1.1720

R3: 1.1738

Support levels:

S1: 1.1665

S2: 1.1645

S3: 1.1627

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

В условиях торговой войны инвесторы выбирают доллар

The US dollar is again beginning to increase its pressure on the currency markets. And there are a number of reasons for this.

The introduction of new trade duties on imports of steel and aluminum from Europe, Canada and Mexico by the United States today, as announced on Thursday, clearly shows that President Trump "does not joke" even with his allies. If there was a hope earlier that it will be possible to somehow agree or postpone it for a rather long period, this news shows that economic, not allied interests are now in the focus of attention of the current White House Administration.

On this wave, on Thursday, after attempting to grow at the opening of the trading session, the main US stock indexes were under pressure. Investors primarily sold shares of large manufacturing and multinational corporations, as the market showed fears that a trade war could damage the profits of companies. This also caused new fears that this could stimulate an increase in inflationary pressures and would have a deterrent effect on world economic growth. Moreover, if the talks between Washington and Beijing fail, that is, there will be no compromise, then this will be another major painful point in the world economy, which will lead to a full-scale trade war between the two most powerful economies of the world with all the negative consequences that follow.

In the wake of these events, the US dollar again began to receive support in the currency markets, fulfilling its function as a safe haven. It seems that investors believe that in the trade war, the US will suffer least of all and that the dollar will be more stable than, for example, the British currency or the euro, as well as a number of other major currencies. In this situation, it is believed that the regional currencies or EM currencies may be the most affected.

In any case, strong data on consumer inflation in the euro area was published on Thursday, in which the indicator jumped 1.9% year-on-year from 1.3%, did not provide long-term support for the euro, which remains under the negative influence of political events in Italy and Spain.

Today, the focus of the market will be data on employment in the US. If the figures are not worse than expected, the dollar can get local support.

Forecast of the day:

The EURUSD remains in the short-term downtrend. If employment data in the United States proves to be strong, we can expect the pair to turn down towards 1.1515.

The GBPUSD is trading below the 1.3300 level. The pair may continue to decline against the backdrop of positive news for the dollar from the US unemployment and fall again to 1.3200.

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Daily analysis of USD/CHF for June 1, 2018

USD/CHF

This market has been going downwards gradually, forming a clear bearish bias. The week has generally been bearish and price is approaching the support level at 0.9850 gradually and it would soon breach it to the downside. After which price would target another support level at 0.9800.

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A continuation of the bearish movement is expected today or early next week. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and the bias is bearish. The Williams' % Range period 20 is almost into the oversold region.

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Daily analysis of USD/JPY for June 1, 2018

USD/JPY

In the context of a short-term downtrend, price is rallying, performing what can be called a bullish correction. A movement above the supply level at 110.00 would render the short-term downtrend invalid, while a movement below the demand level at 108.50 would strengthen it. However, a strong bearish pressure would be needed for the demand level at 108.50 to be broken to the downside, as the demand level has been tested several times without price staying below it.

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Daily analysis of EUR/JPY for June 1, 2018

EUR/JPY

Since the demand zone at 125.00 was reached, this cross has been engaged in a relentless effort to rally. The relentless bullish effort has become a threat to the recent bearishness in the market, and once price goes above the supply level at 129.50, the bias would turn completely bullish.

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A downwards movement from here would also result in a confirmation of the recent bearish outlook on the market. The EMA 11 is still below the EMA 56, but the RSI period 14 is above the level 50. Should the current bullish correction continue, it would eventually lead to a new bullish bias being formed in the market.

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USD/JPY analysis for June 01, 2018

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Recently, the USD/JPY pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 109.24. According to the H1 time – frame, I found a broken supply trendline and potentially a broken bullish flag in the background, which is a sign that buyers are in control. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward target is set at the price of 109.90.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1730

R2: 1.1770

R3: 1.1812

Support levels:

S1: 1.1650

S2: 1.1605

S3: 1.1565

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/CHF for June 1, 2018

USD/CHF has been quite impressive inside the the bearish bias recently after being rejected off the 1.0035 area with a daily close. Ahead of the upcoming high impact US economic reports to be published today, the market is currently quite indecisive and volatile at the edge of 0.9850 area.

Today, US Average Hourly Earnings report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.1%, Non-Farm Employment Change report is expected to increase to 189k from the previous figure of 164k and Unemployment Rate is expected to be unchanged at 3.9%. Though are a lot of speculations whether US economic reports wil be strong. If true, it may lead to further momentum in USD.

On the other hand, today Switzerland Manufacturing PMI report was published with a slight decrease to 62.4 from the previous figure of 63.6 which is expected to make certain weakness effect on the CHF gains against USD in the coming days.

As for the current scenario, high impact economic reports from the US today is expected to encourage USD gains further in the coming days. Though CHF has been gaining quite well against USD recently, upcoming positive economic reports may lead to continuation of the bullish trend in the pair in the future.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing at the edge of 0.9850 support area from where certain bullish pressure is expected in this pair. Ahead of the upcoming high impact USD economic reports today, the market is expected to be volatile but as the price remains above 0.9850 with a daily close, certain bullish pressure is expected in this pair. On the other hand, a break below 0.9850 with a daily close, will lead to further bearish pressure in the pair with target towards 0.97.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review of GBP / USD pair for June 1, 2018

On Friday there are the following strong calendar news:

- 8.30 London time. GBP, PMI (May). The expected value is 53.5 compared to the previous value of 53.9;

- 12.30 London time. USD, change in the number of employed in the non-agricultural sector (May). The expected value is 189K compared to the previous value of 168K;

- 12.30 London time. USD, the unemployment rate (May). The expected value is 3.9% compared to the previous value of 3.9%;

- 14.00 London time. USD, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (PMI) from ISM (May). The expected value is 58.2 compared to the previous value of 57.3.

Trend analysis (Figure 1).

On Thursday, the price continued to move up but it is already in the side channel in anticipation of strong Friday news. On Friday, the price will most likely continue its lateral movement. A complex analysis will more accurately determine where the price will go next.

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Indicator analysis on the daily schedule (Figure 2).

The system of ADX indicators (Figure 1).

On the last run, the fast line (indicator 5 - white) and the slow line (indicator period 8 - blue) moved up. In this case, the trend should be determined by indicators of the oscillator type.

Complex analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - upwards;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- Weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

On Friday, the GBP / USD pair will move upward with the first goal at 1.3374 (yellow dotted line) with a recession level of 14.6%.

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Trading plan 06/01/2018

Trading plan 06/01/2018

New duties from Trump - the center of attention.

On Thursday, the G-7 summit began - at the level of the Ministry of Finance and the heads of the Central Bank. The summit's agenda was actually thwarted by Trump's unexpected decision to still impose duties on steel and aluminum for the closest US allies - the EU and Canada (and Mexico).

Earlier, everyone expected that Trump would give allies benefits. As a result, all the participants in the Group of Seven made strong criticism of the US position. Negotiations will be held on Friday and Saturday. Next week there will be a summit of the seven heads of government - with the participation of Trump - there the question will be finally settled.

Against the background of Trump - the crisis in Italy has receded into the background - but this topic can return to the markets.

In addition, today at 12:30 PM London time - the report on employment in the US for May. However, the effect will be lowered against the background of duties from Trump.

GBPUSD: Buy from 1.3350.

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Wave analysis of GBP/USD for June 1. Pound sterling is still very weak

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Analysis of wave counting:

At the trades on May 31, the GBP/USD currency pair lost about 60 points from the maximum of the day, questioning the construction of the future wave 2, in a of the downward trend section. The pair fails to form a significant upward trend section that could be identified as wave 2, or at least as the first low order waves in the future 2. Based on this, the pair at any time can resume the construction of wave 1 in a, which will take an even more complex and extended view.

Targets for buying:

1.3528 - 127.2% of the Fibonacci of the highest order

1.3555 - 200.0% by Fibonacci

Targets for selling:

1.3045 - 200.0% on the Fibonacci of the highest order

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The next attempt to complete the construction of wave 1, in a, still does not look convincing at all. No sooner had the pair moved away from the reached lows, a decline in quotes threatens to resume. Leaving the trading instrument at least from May 29 will allow the return to selling with targets near the estimated mark of 1.3045, which corresponds to 200.0% of Fibonacci. It is recommended to consider buying a pair after building the convincing first two waves in the future 2.

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Review of AUD / USD pair for a week of June 1 on simplified wave analysis

The wave pattern of the D1 graph:

Since September last year, the price movement of the major corresponds to the downward wave algorithm. In a larger formation, it takes the place of correction, forming a standard plane. The wave is not complete.

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The wave pattern of the H1 graph:

In the descending wave of the H2 / H4 scale, the last section is close to the level of the hourly TF. The bullish wave of May 9 takes the place of correction. The upward potential is limited by the zone of resistance.

The wave pattern of the M15 chart:

This scale can be attributed to the last section from May 30 in a larger upward wave. At the time of analysis, the price is adjusted forming the middle part of the movement (B).

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Recommended trading strategy:

Proponents of intraday trading can make short-term purchases. Trading larger areas of the schedule, it makes sense to wait for the completion of the upcoming rollback for the sale of the pair.

Resistance zones:

- 0.7650 / 0.7700

Support zones:

- 0.7320 / 0.7270

Explanations to the figures:

A simplified wave analysis uses a simple waveform, in the form of a 3-part zigzag (ABC). The last incomplete wave for every time frame is analyzed. Zones show the calculated areas with the greatest probability of a turn.

Arrows indicate the counting of wave according to the technique used by the author. The solid background shows the generated structure and the dotted exhibits the expected wave motion.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of the tool movements in time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need to confirm the signals used by your trading systems. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of EUR/USD for June 1. The euro is in the lead, the dollar is in the shadow

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Analysis of wave counting:

Trades in the EUR/USD pair on Thursday ended in growth by 40 points. Thus, the trading instrument continues to build the anticipated first wave of the new upward trend part of the future wave 3. If this assumption is true, then in the next week the quotations increase with the first goal, located near the 18th figure, will continue. At the same time, the currency pair has no visible obstacles to an even more complicated wave 5, in c, in 2. However, this development of events will be possible only below the minimum of May 29.

Targets for selling:

1.1542 - 261.8% by Fibonacci

1.1438 - 323.6% by Fibonacci

Targets for buying:

1.1835 - 200.0% of the Fibonacci of the highest order

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD currency pair supposedly completed the construction of wave 5, in with. So, now it is recommended that you continue to build small buying in terms of building a wave 1, at 1, at 3, with targets located near the estimated mark of 1,1835, which corresponds to 200.0% of Fibonacci. It is recommended to increase buying after the end of the wave 2, in 1, in the future 3. It is not recommended going back to sales before the break of the minimum from May 29, which will lead to an even more complicated wave 5, in c.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review of EUR / USD pair for June 1, 2018

On Friday, the following strong calendar news comes out:

- 7.55 London time. EUR, PMI in Germany (May). The expected value is 56.8 compared to the previous value of 56.8;

- 12.30 London time. USD, change in the number of employed in the non-agricultural sector (May). The expected value is 189K compared to the previous value of 168K;

- 12.30 London time. USD, the unemployment rate (May). The expected value is compared to the previous value of 3.9%;

- 14.00 London time. USD, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (PMI) from ISM (May) compared to 58.2 compared to the previous value of 57.3.

Trend analysis (Figure 1).

On Thursday, the price continued to move up, which is expected after reaching the pullback level of 14.6% 1.664 (blue dotted line). On Friday, the movement will be lateral until the strong news comes out at 12.30 London time. A complex analysis will more accurately determine where the price will go next.

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Indicator analysis on the daily schedule (Figure 2).

The system of indicators ADX (Figure 1).

On the last run, the fast line (indicator 5 - white) and the slow line (indicator period 8 - blue) moved down. In this case, the trend should be determined by indicators of the oscillator type.

Complex analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - upwards;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion.

On Friday, the market will move up towards the first target of 1.1757 with a recoil rate of 23.6% (blue dotted line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Burning forecast: 06/01/2018

Burning forecast: 06/01/2018

Trump again caused a stir in the markets.

U.S. President Donald Trump made a big and unpleasant surprise to his allies. The US president, contrary to expectations, imposed duties on steel (25%) and aluminum (10%) for the EU and Canada (and for Mexico). This caused a sharp negative reaction from the most important US trade partners, naturally. Pledges were made to introduce reciprocal duties on goods from the United States.

Today, a report on employment in the US at 12:30 PM London time will be released - this may increase volatility.

The focus remains on the issues of duties and trade relations between the US and the EU (and Canada).

Buy the euro from 1.1725, stop at 1.1680, profit 1.1900.

Alternative: Sell from 1.1508, stop at 1.1553, stop 1.1360.

analytics5b10f544514a4.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 01/06/2018

HICP inflation in Eurozone accelerated from 1.2% to 1.9% on a yearly basis, strongly defeating the market consensus of 1.6%. What's more, core inflation jumped from 0.7 to 1.1% y/y. Such a scenario hung in the air after yesterday's data from Germany and earlier readings, among others from France, where the annual growth rate of prices is the highest since 2012. In the result, the euro has been gaining again since yesterday, however, mainly due to the calm of sentiment on the Italian Treasury bonds market.

Less than two weeks before the planned decision on the future of the bond buying-in program (QE), the European Central Bank (ECB) faces a real challenge. On the one hand, the political crisis in Italy has raised the yields on bonds of weaker countries and calls into question the integrity of the region, which would indicate the need to maintain - at least in the short term - market support with ultra-smooth monetary policy (QE in Q4). On the other hand, inflation in the largest Eurozone economy has risen to the highest level in 6 years. According to preliminary estimates, the CPI in May amounted to 2.2%. The last result was recorded last in February and earlier in July 2013, but in both cases, it was the peak of dynamics for the next few quarters. Currently, it is unlikely that the price growth will stop at this level, taking into account the behavior of oil prices in recent months and their strong impact on the prices of consumer goods and services in general, especially in the situation when further, long-term records of low unemployment are achieved on the labor market (5.2% in May - the lowest since unification). The discrepancy within the common currency area makes monetary policy difficult, so Mario Draghi and the company will again have to face the task of proper calibration of its parameters and tools. The currently most likely scenario is still dovish, so the QE will be extended for at least another three months. However, it is not certain whether this will calm the situation in the markets and the euro-related pairs.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/JPY technical picture at the daily time frame. The fall from the swing top at the level of 137.40 has almost hit the 50% Fibo and stopped at the level of 124.57. Since then the market is trying to bounce higher and possibly test the technical resistance at the level of 129.11. Moreover, it looks like the market is currently moving inside of the parallel channel, so any breakout in either direction will be an additional important clue. The short-term bounce in EUR/JPY is being supported by the oversold market conditions, so the bias remains bullish.

analytics5b10f7c10718d.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Traders are waiting for data on Non-Farm Employment

Good data on the US economy that was released on Thursday afternoon, supported the US dollar.

According to a report by the US Department of Labor, the number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits last week fell significantly.

Thus, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits for the week from 20 to 26 of May fell by 13,000 and amounted to 221,000. Economists had expected the number of applications to be at 225,000. Data for the previous week were not revised and remained unchanged at 234,000.

A number of representatives of the Federal Reserve have repeatedly noted that the US labor market is in order and unemployment has reached its historical minimums, which will allow the regulator to continue to grow without problems in the future. Such data also make it possible to expect an increase in interest rates, which is still hampered only because of the conditions of weak inflation.

It is important to note that there will be a very important report on unemployment in the US today, which should remain at 3.9%, as well as data on the change in the number of employed in the non-agricultural sector, which is expected to grow by 189,000 in May this year.

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The growth of the US dollar also reacted to the report, which indicated that Americans continued to increase their spending in April this year, which is directly related to their incomes, as well as confidence in the economy.

According to the US Department of Commerce, personal expenses in April rose by 0.6% compared to the previous month and personal income before taxes showed a monthly increase of 0.3%. Economists predicted an increase in expenses by 0.4%, and revenues by 0.3% compared to the previous month.

The speech of the representative of the Federal Reserve System, Lael Brainard, did not have a significant impact on the markets. According to Brainard, a gradual increase in rates is appropriate in light of the favorable labor market situation, rising inflation, and fiscal stimulus. Also gradual rate increases will help support the labor market and inflation.

The representative of the Federal Reserve expressed concern about the political crisis in Italy, as well as in trade relations that carry certain risks. In this regard, Lael Brainard believes that the course of monetary policy in developed countries is likely to be different.

In general, there is nothing new that the representatives of the Federal Reserve said, only repeated the previous statements of her colleagues.

As for the current technical picture of the EURUSD pair, only a confident break above the resistance level of 1.1720 will form a new wave of growth, which will lead to a new weekly high in the areas of 1.1780 and 1.1830. If the trade again moves to the area of support at 1.1650, then the pressure on risky assets will increase substantially, which will scare off a number of buyers and lead to a decrease in the areas of 1.1590 and 1.1540.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of USDX for June 1, 2018

The Dollar index is in a bullish trend. Price pulled back from the weekly resistance at 95 and has tested successfully the 4 hour Ichimoku cloud support. As long as price is above this 4 hour support we could see a new higher high. A break below the cloud support will confirm that the top is in.

analytics5b10f19db2650.png

Blue line - trend line support

The Dollar index has broken below the trend line support but holds above the 4 hour Kumo. We could see a bounce to back test the broken trend line and then a rejection today after the NFP announcement. Support is critical at yesterday's lows around 93.75. Any close today below 93.80 will be very bearish for next week. On the other hand a weekly close above 94.35 will be bullish. I remain bearish the Dollar.

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Fractal analysis for major currency pairs as of June 1

Dear colleagues.

For the EUR / USD pair, the development of the upward structure is expected after the breakdown of 1.1695. For the GBP / USD pair, the continuation of the movement towards the bottom is expected after the breakdown of 1.3195. For the USD / CHF pair, we expanded the potential for the downward structure from May 29 to the level of 0.9754. For the USD / JPY pair, the price is in correction from the downward structure on May 21. For the EUR / JPY pair, the development of the upward structure of May 29 is expected after the breakdown of 128.16. For the GBP / JPY pair, the level of 146.27 is the key support for the downward cycle. The development of the main trend is expected after the breakdown of 142.73.

Forecast for June 1:

Analytical review of currency pairs in the scale of H1:

analytics5b10bbfeaecfb.png

For the EUR / USD pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 1.1824, 1.1774, 1.1743, 1.1693, 1.1622, 1.1593, 1.1562, 1.1515, 1.1453 and 1.1397. Here, we follow the upward structure of May 30. The continuation of the development of the upward trend is expected after the breakdown of 1.1693. In this case, the target is 1.1743. In the area of 1.1743 - 1.1774 is the consolidation of the price. For the potential value for the top, consider the level of 1.1824. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 1.1622-1.1593. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.1562. This level is the key support for the upward structure from May 30. Its breakdown will lead to the development of the a downward structure. In this case, the first goal is 1.1515.

The main trend is the formation of the potential for the top of May 30.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1695 Take profit: 1.1742

Buy 1.1775 Take profit: 1.1822

Sell: 1.1622 Take profit: 1.1593

Sell: 1.1560 Take profit: 1.1515

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For the GBP / USD pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are 1.3415, 1.3388, 1.3346, 1.3306, 1.3229, 1.3195 and 1.3123. Here, we continue to follow the downward structure from May 14. The continuation of the movement towards the bottom is expected after passing the price of the noise range at 1.3229 - 1.3195. In this case, the target is 1.3123. Upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 1.3306 - 1.3346. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3388. The level of 1.3415 is the potential for the top. Before reaching this level, we expect the initial conditions for the upward cycle to be formalized.

The main trend is the downward cycle from May 14.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3306 Take profit: 1.3344

Buy: 1.3348 Take profit: 1.3388

Sell: 1.3227 Take profit: 1.3196

Sell: 1.3193 Take profit: 1.3125

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For the USD / CHF pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 0.9954, 0.9927, 0.9897, 0.9876, 0.9842, 0.9826, 0.9784 and 0.9754. Here, the subsequent development of the downward structure from May 29 is expected after passing the price of the noise range of 0.9842 - 0.9826. In this case, the target is 0.9784. For the potential value for the bottom, consider the level of 0.9754. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward trend is possible in the area of 0.9876 - 0.9897. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.9927. This level is the key support for the downward structure. Its breakdown will allow us to count on the movement towards the level of 0.9954.

The main trend is a local downward structure from May 29.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9876 Take profit: 0.9895

Buy: 0.9898 Take profit: 0.9925

Sell: 0.9826 Take profit: 0.9786

Sell: 0.9782 Take profit: 0.9755

analytics5b10bc2628136.png

For the USD / JPY pair, the key levels on a scale are: 109.98, 109.60, 109.15, 108.84, 108.14, 107.64, 106.99 and 106.58. Here, we follow the downward structure of May 21. The continuation of the movement towards the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 108.14. In this case, the target is 107.64. Near this level is the consolidation of the price. The breakdown of 107.62 must be accompanied by a pronounced movement towards the level of 106.99. For the potential value for the bottom, consider the level of 106.58. Upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 108.84 - 109.15. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 109.60. The level of 109.98 is a potential value for the top. Before reaching this level, we expect the initial conditions for the upward cycle to be formalized.

The main trend is the downward structure of May 21.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 108.84 Take profit: 109.12

Buy: 109.17 Take profit: 109.60

Sell: 108.12 Take profit: 107.66

Sell: 107.62 Take profit: 107.00

analytics5b10bc3236e41.png

For the CAD / USD pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3204, 1.3159, 1.3093, 1.3012, 1.2960, 1.2922, 1.2825, 1.2758, 1.2674 and 1.2621. Here, we follow the upward structure of May 22. At the moment, the price is in deep correction from this structure and forms the potential for the bottom of May 29. Consolidated movement is expected in the area of 1.2922 - 1.2960. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a movement towards the level of 1.3012. This level is the key resistance for the subsequent development of the upward trend.

The development of a downward trend from May 29 is expected after the breakdown of 1.2825. Here, the first target is 1.2758. Near this level is the consolidation of the price. The breakdown of 1.2755 should be accompanied by a pronounced movement towards the potential value of - 1.2674.

The main trend is the rising trend from May 22, a deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2960 Take profit: 1.3012

Buy: 1.3014 Take profit: 1.3090

Sell: 1.2825 Take profit: 1.2760

Sell: 1.2755 Take profit: 1.2680

analytics5b10bc3fab990.png

For the AUD / USD pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 0.7661, 0.7632, 0.7612, 0.7583, 0.7543, 0.7525, 0.7505 and 0.7474. Here,the price forms the potential for the upward movement of May 30. The continuation of the movement towards the top is expected after the breakdown of 0.7583. In this case, the target is 0.7612. In the area of 0.7612 - 0.7632 is the consolidation of the price. For the potential value for the top, consider the level of 0.7661. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 0.7543 - 0.7525. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.7505. This level is the key support for the upward structure. Its breakdown will lead to a downward movement. In this case, the target is 0.7474.

The main trend is the formation of the potential for the top of May 30.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7583 Take profit: 0.7612

Buy: 0.7632 Take profit: 0.7660

Sell: 0.7541 Take profit: 0.7526

Sell: 0.7505 Take profit: 0.7478

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For the EUR / JPY pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 131.40, 129.85, 129.22, 128.16, 127.52, 126.22, 125.53, 124.59 and 123.17. Here, we follow the downward structure from May 22. At the moment, the price is in correction and forms a small potential for the top. The continuation of the movement towards the top is expected after passing the price of the noise range of 127.52 - 128.16. In this case, the target is 129.22. In the area of 129.22 - 129.85 is the consolidation of the price. For the potential value for the top, consider the level of 131.40. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 126.22 - 125.53, hence the probability of a turn to the top is high. The breakdown of the level of 125.50 will lead to the development of a downward structure. Here, the first target is 124.59. For the potential value for the bottom, consider the level of 123.17.

The main trend is the downward structure from May 22, the correction stage.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 128.16 Take profit: 129.20

Buy: 129.85 Take profit: 131.40

Sell: 126.20 Take profit: 125.55

Sell: 125.50 Take profit: 124.60

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For the GBP / JPY pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 147.10, 146.27, 145.04, 144.29, 142.73, 141.63, 140.17 and 139.29. Here, we follow the downward structure of May 18. The continuation of the movement towards the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 142.73. In this case, the target is 141.63. Near this level is the consolidation of the price. The break of level 141.60 should be accompanied by a pronounced movement towards the level of 140.17, the potential value for the bottom, consider the level of 139.29. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 144.29 - 145.04. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 146.27. The range of 146.27 - 147.10 is the key support for the downward structure, before it we expect the initial conditions for the upward cycle to be formalized.

The main trend is the downward structure of May 18.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 144.30 Take profit: 145.02

Buy: 145.08 Take profit: 146.25

Sell: 142.70 Take profit: 141.65

Sell: 141.60 Take profit: 140.20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fractal analysis for GOLD on June 1

Forecast for June 1:

Analytical review on the scale of H1:

analytics5b10bc98cadab.png

For Gold, the key key levels on the H1 scale are: 1316.66, 1311.26, 1308.97, 1305.28, 1302.58, 1295.70 and 1288.63. Here, the price is in deep correction from the upward structure of May 21. The continuation of the movement towards the top is expected after the breakdown of 1302.60. In this case, the target is 1305.00. In the area of 1302.58 - 1305.00 is the consolidation of the price. The breakdown of the level of 1305.60 should be accompanied by a pronounced movement towards the level of 1308.97. In the area of 1308.97 - 1311.26 is the consolidation of the price. For the potential value for the top, consider the level of 1316.66. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

The level of 1295.70 is the key support for the top. Its breakdown will lead to the development of the a downward trend. Here, the target is 1288.63. Up to this level, we expect the formation of pronounced initial conditions for the downward cycle.

The main trend is the upward cycle from May 21, the stage of deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1302.70 Take profit: 1305.00

Buy 1305.60 Take profit: 1308.50

Sell: 1295.50 Take profit: 1290.00

Sell: Take profit:

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis on Gold for June 1, 2018

Gold price remains near key resistance of $1,305. Every time Gold tried to break above the resistance it got rejected. Will the NFP announcement today provide the necessary boost for a break above resistance and finally a move towards $1,320-30? I believe so.

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Blue horizontal line -short-term resistance

Yellow line - medium-term resistance

Purple line - short-term support

Green lines - targets

Red extensions -targets

Gold price is still trying to break above the medium-term trend line resistance. A triple top at $1,305 has been formed. There will not be a fourth time. Either Gold breaks it next and move towards our targets of $1,320-30 or it makes new lows. Support is at $1,290-95. Bulls do not want a weekly and daily close below this level. Bulls want a break out today.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 01/06/2018

US Minister of Trade Wilbur Ross declared on Thursday that his country imposes a 25% steel and 10% duty customs duties on aluminum for the European Union, Canada and Mexico. Tariffs will apply from midnight on Friday time in the US. President Donald Trump originally announced the introduction of retaliatory duties on steel and aluminum in March this year. The American leader then motivated the introduction of tariffs "on grounds of national security." Revenge duties were to enter into force on May 1, however, Trump agreed to delay their introduction for a month against the European Union, Mexico and Canada. Delay in the introduction of customs was to allow US partners from the EU to negotiate a trade agreement aimed at opening up markets for American export products. Representatives of Trump's administration even let them know that they were ready to make concessions in trade negotiations if the Germans decided not to build the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. Retaliatory duties against the most important trading partners of the United States were one of Trump's election promises, aimed at winning the electorate in the "rust belt", where competition from cheaper steel and aluminum from abroad resulted in the collapse of industrial production and high unemployment.

In the case of Canada and Mexico, the President delayed the introduction of retaliatory duties by one month due to ongoing renegotiations of the historic NAFTA agreement on free trade between the United States, Mexico and Canada. Penal tariffs - 25% for steel and steel products, and 10% for aluminum and aluminum products - are already covered by these products exported to the United States, including from Russia, China and Japan. Since the announcement in March by President Trump of his decision to introduce retaliation duties, Argentina, Brazil and Australia reached an agreement to avoid additional duties on their steel and aluminum products in exports to the US, agreeing to the quota system of these products.

Let's now take a look at the SP500 technical picture at the H4 time frame. The long-awaited decision on the entry into force on Friday of steel and aluminum tariffs from the European Union, Canada and Mexico caused another decline in the value of shares on the New York Stock Exchange. The SP500 lost over 100 points during the last few hours of the session on Thursday. Currently, the market is still trading above the intraday technical support at the level of 269.90, but in a case of another sell-off, the next target is seen at the level of 267.96. The key zone to the upside is still seen between the levels of 273.42 - 274.15.

analytics5b10f04566deb.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for the European session on June 1 for the EUR/USD

To open long positions on EURUSD it is required:

Consider buying euros after a breakout and consolidation on the resistance 1.1709, which opens the possibility of further upward correction in the area 1.1775 and 1.1828, where it is recommend fixing profits. Forming a false breakout at 1.1658 will also be an additional signal to buy. Otherwise, you can open long positions on a rebound from 1.1597.

To open short positions on EURUSD it is required:

Unsuccessful consolidation above 1.1709 with a return to this level will be the first signal for the opening of short positions in the euro with the main target of returning to support level 1.1658, where the pressure on the pair will increase even more, which will lead to a large area of 1.1597, where it is recommended fixing profits. In the case of growth above 1.1709 in the morning, selling can be searched from levels 1.1775 and 1.1828.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for 01/06/2018

The Central Bank of Russia has published a report stating that cryptographic assets do not threaten global financial stability, because the global volume of cryptographic transactions is very low.

The research paper states that instead of the term "cryptocurrency", the Financial Stability Board proposes to use the term "crypto assets", which can be considered as financial assets based on the use of cryptography and the technology of a scattered register.

According to the report, crypto assets do not pose a threat to global financial stability, because currently, the number of transactions involving cryptographic assets is very low compared to the size of the global financial system.

The document states that asset cryptography may pose a threat to financial stability in the event of further market growth, a large-scale involvement of retail and institutional investors, banks and other market participants. According to the central bank's report, high price volatility of cryptographic assets prevents them from becoming a reliable standard for values as a means of exchange and storage of value.

In addition, the document presents a number of risks associated with investing in cryptographic assets, including the lack of protection of investors' rights, the risk of preventing money laundering and terrorist financing, the lack of market liquidity, operational risk and the use of leverage.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is hovering around the weekly pivot at the level of $7,582 which is very close to the golden trend line dynamic resistance. In a case of a breakout higher the next target is seen at the level of $7,890. In a case of a failure, the immediate support is seen at the level of $7,435 and then $7,247. The outlook remains bullish due to the completed corrective cycle of the wave 2/B. A breakout through the trend line will be the first confirmation the bottom is in place.

analytics5b10ed704c511.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for the European session on June 1 for the GBP/USD

To open long positions on GBP/USD it is required:

Counting on buying the pound is best when forming a false breakout at 1.3244, or on a rebound from the lows of the month in the area of 1.3202. The main goal of the buyers will be a return and consolidation above the middle of the channel 1.3291, which opens a direct road to the weekly highs in the area of 1.3343 and 1.3379, where it is recommended to record profits.

To open short positions on GBP/USD it is required:

In the morning, sellers will try not to allow the return to resistance level 1.3291, and the formation of a false breakout on it will be an additional signal to sell, counting on the break and consolidation below 1.3244, which opens the way to weekly lows in the 1.3202 area, where it is recommended recording profits. In the case of growth above 1.3291, one can sell the pound on a rebound from 1.3343.

analytics5b10cf4664a19.png

Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for 01/06/2018

On Friday 1st of June, the main event of the day is the US job market report in a form of the NFP-Payrolls, Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings. Nevertheless, in the meantime, there are other important data scheduled for release, like PMI Manufacturing data from across the Eurozone and the UK, Australian Commodity Prices data and Italian Gross Domestic Product data.

EUR/USD analysis for 01/06/2018:

The global investors expect the Non-Farm Payrolls (monthly change in employment excluding the farming sector) to increase from 164k last month the 189k for this month, the Unemployment Rate ( the percentage of individuals in the labor force who are without a job but actively seeking one) to remain at 3.9% and the Average Hourly Earnings ( average change in level of pay) to increase from 0.1% last month to 0.3% this month. The ISM Manufacturing index is expected to increase from 572 to 58.3 points in this month as well.

Except of the headline number, the next most important data will come from the Average Hourly Earnings index - an indicator of how the average level of pay is changing. The Average Hourly Earnings figure provides insight into future spending and inflation. A High Average Hourly Earnings bodes well for future consumption, as workers have more disposable income. High figures may indicate inflationary pressures due to employee's additional potential to spend. The figure is either measured in hourly or weekly averages or as a percent change from the previous month.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame before the NFP-Payrolls data are released. The market has broken through the navy trend line resistance but remains locked in a tight consolidation zone between the levels of 1.1644 - 1.1726. The market conditions are still neutral as the traders await the NFP-Payrolls figures. In a case of a better than expected data, the price might test the technical resistance at the level of 1.1726 and in a case of a breakout higher, the next target is seen at the level of 1.1756. Otherwise, the price will likely test the technical support at the level of 1.1644 and if the price will fall back down below the navy trend line, then the downtrend will likely continue lower towards the level of 1.1509.

analytics5b10ea1f73b46.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Euro under crossfire

EUR / USD

The main event yesterday was the announcement of the White House about the final decision to impose "militant" duties on steel (25%) and aluminum (10%) against the EU, Mexico and Canada. For the EU, this is the volume of goods at 6.4 billion euros. The effect of these duties comes from today. All countries announced an early response.

Italy had developed its own issue. In the search for a compromise, Paolo Savone was offered the position of minister for relations with the EU, but a supporter of the single currency, Giovanni Tria, was appointed as minister of finance.

Macroeconomic indicators of the euro area and the US came out good. The base consumer price index in the euro area for May showed growth to 1.1% YoY against the forecast of 1.0% YoY, the total CPI rose to 1.9% YoY against expectations of 1.6% YoY and the April indicator in 1.2% YoY. The unemployment rate remained at 8.5% against expectations of a decline to 8.4%.

In the United States, personal income of consumers in April increased by an expected of 0.3%, while personal expenses increased by 0.6% versus waiting for 0.4%. The business activity index in the manufacturing sector of the Chicago region for May increased from 57.6 to 62.7, with the forecast was 58.2. This is a significant indicator that tax reforms have a positive effect in the industrial Chicago district. The weekly report on the number of applications for unemployment benefits showed a decrease in applications to 221 thousand from 234 thousand before, with the forecast of 228 thousand. The decline showed incomplete sales in the secondary real estate market in April, indicating the fall at -1.3% against expectations of 0.4 % growth.

Today, an important data on US employment was released and the euro came up in a neutral position at the opening level of the week. During this time, the preconditions for a strong labor data were created. The forecast for Non-Farm Employment Change for May is 189 thousand against 164 thousand in April. The unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 3.9%. The average hourly wage is expected to increase by 0.2% after many are not satisfied with 0.1% in April. On the same day, the business activity index in the US manufacturing sector for May (ISM Manufacturing PMI) will be released, with the forecast of 58.3 versus 57.3 in April. But, yesterday's growth of the Chicago index gives preconditions for the indicator to exit above the forecast. Construction costs in the United States for April are expected to increase by 0.8%.

So, the good economic data were under pressure due to initiation of US trade war. We are waiting for the euro to decline to 1.1510 and 1.1450.

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* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for the US session on May 31 EUR / USD

To open long positions for EUR / USD, you need:

Euro purchases in the current situation are best seen after the formation of a false breakout at 1.1653 or open long positions immediately at a rebound of 1.1597. The main goal will be a repeated test of the resistance level of 1.1721 and its breakthrough, which opens a direct road to the area of 1.1775, where I recommend today to fix the profit.

To open short positions for EUR / USD, you need:

The breakthrough and consolidation below the support level of 1.1653 will be a good signal for euro sales in return for the area of 1.1597. If the euro rises in the second half of the day, another unsuccessful attempt to gain a foothold above the level of 1.1721 will also lead to a downward correction. In another version, sales can be made immediately on a rebound from 1.1775.

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Description of indicators

MA (average sliding) 50 days - yellow

MA (average sliding) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for the US session on May 31 GBP / USD

To open long positions for GBP / USD, you need:

You can buy the pound only if you break and consolidate above the level of 1.3343, which will form a new upward wave with the resistance level of 1.3379, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of a pound drop in the afternoon, purchases will be relevant for a false breakout in the support area of 1.3295 or a rebound from 1.3247.

To open short positions for GBP / USD, you need:

The sellers managed to return to the morning resistance level of 1.3340, and now their main goal is to update the support level of 1.3295. A recurring return to this level could lead to a new wave of GBP / USD falling already with reaching the lows around 1.3247, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of growth above the level of 1.3343, you can sell the pound for a rebound from 1.3379.

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Description of indicators

MA (average sliding) 50 days - yellow

MA (average sliding) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis and trading recommendations for the NZD / USD currency pair as of May 31, 2018

The currency pair NZD / USD, after a small stagnation, still managed to go into the correction stage. Earlier, it was already discussed that the pair had slipped well since the beginning of April, but at the same level of 0.6850, the support point was found, allowing the bulls to return to the market. Now, we are already above the psychological level of 0.7000, keeping the "bullish" interest. Probably assume further movement towards 0.7070, where, perhaps, bears return for a while, forming a small pullback in the market.

Key Levels

Resistance zones: 0.7000: 0.7180; 0.7250 * 0.7340 *

Support zones: 0.6820; 0.6700 *; 0.6580.

* Periodic level

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Attention: Forecasts are not a direct guide to action!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com