Analysis of Gold for September 22, 2017

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Recently, Gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1,295.00. According to the 30M time frame, I found rejection from intraday resistance at the price of $1,300.00, which is a sign that buying looks risky. Buyers lost momentum and my advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $1,288.45 and $1,280.75.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,301.60

R2: $1,303.45

R3: $1,304.50

Support levels:

S1: $1,298.65

S2: $1,297.40

S3: $1,295.65

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for September 22, 2017

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USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bearish outlook. The pair retreated from 112.75 and broke below its 20-period and 50-period moving averages. In addition, the 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period one. The relative strength index is showing downside momentum.

To conclude, as long as 112.35 is not surpassed, look for a further drop to 111.60. A break below this level would trigger a new decline to 111.20.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a long position is recommended above 112.35 with a target at 112.50.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 112.35, Take Profit: 111.60

Resistance levels: 113.30, 113.75 and 114.15 Support Levels: 111.60, 111.20, 110.80

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for September 22, 2017

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USD/CHF is expected to trade with a bearish outlook. The pair retreated from 0.9720 and broke below its 20-period and 50-period moving averages. In addition, the 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period one. The relative strength index is showing downside momentum.

The U.S. dollar got a boost from the Federal Reserve's agenda for another interest rate increase until the year end.

To conclude, as long as 0.9720 is not surpassed, look for a further drop to 0.9650. A break below this level would trigger a new decline to 0.9625.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot points indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 0.9720, Take Profit: 0.9650

Resistance levels: 0.9765, 0.9795, and 0.98830

Support levels: 0.9650, 0.9625, and 0.9775

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for September 22, 2017

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Our first target which we predicted in yesterday's analysis has been hit. The pair is still trading on upside and expected to post some further gains. From a chartist point of view, the pair has broken above a declining trend line. However, the 30-min RSI is posting a bearish divergence calling for caution.

As a consequence, above 151.25, a further advance can be expected towards 152.90 and even 153.40.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a short position is recommended below 151.25 with the target at 151.00.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 151.25, Take Profit: 152.90

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates long positions; and when it is below the pivot points, it indicates short positions. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 152.90, 153.40 and 154.00

Support levels: 151.00, 149.35, and 149.35

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GBP/USD analysis for September 22, 2017

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading sideways at the price of 1.3570. Anyway, according to the 30M time frame, I found a fake breakout yesterday's high at the price of 1.3586, which is a sign that buying looks risky. There is a downward breakout of the Asia session's trading range, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.3475 and 1.3455.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3585

R2: 1.3620

R3: 1.3645

Support levels:

S1: 1.3530

S2: 1.3500

S3: 1.3470

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for September 22, 2017

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We will retain our yesterday's technical levels. The pair is still under pressure and is trading below its declining 20-period and 50-period moving averages, which play resistance roles and maintain the downside bias. The relative strength index is bearish and calls for a further drop.

To conclude, as long as 0.7360 is not surpassed, a new test to 0.7275 and even to 0.7245 seems more likely to occur.

The black line is showing the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which indicates long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines is showing the support levels and the green line is indicating the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7390, 0.7410, and 0.7455

Support levels: 0.7275, 0.7245, and 0.7180

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Bitcoin analysis for September 22, 2017

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $3,850 driven on the news that Chinese bitcoin exchange executives must stay in China during the government's crackdown and "clean-up" of the nation's cryptocurrency industries. A rough translation from a story published by China's Bjnews states that "a number of informed sources say the executives of special currency trading platforms are not allowed to leave Beijing to cooperate with the investigation. The technical picture confirms downward presure.

According to the 1H time frame, I found a strong rejection from key resistnace cluster at the price of $4,000, which is a sign that buying looks risky. Another sign of weakness is a breakout of rising wedges in the background. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities. Downward targets are set at the price of $3,643 and $2,976.

Support/Resistance

$3,750 – Intraday resistance (price action)

$4,000 – Major cluster resistance (price action)

$3,463 – Pattern objective target

$2,976 – Second objective target (price action)

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for September 22, 2017

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Daily Outlook

In February 2017, the depicted short-term downtrend was initiated around the depicted supply zone (0.7310-0.7380).

However, a recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

The price zone of 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) stood as a temporary resistance zone until a bullish breakout was expressed above 0.7230.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards the next supply zone around 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

Recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhances the bearish side of the market. This brings the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) where recent weak bullish recovery was manifested earlier in September.

An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern is being expressed on the depicted chart indicating high probability of bearish reversal.

The current price levels of 0.7320-0.7350 can be watched for a valid SELL entry if enough bearish rejection is expressed.

Breakdown of the neckline 0.7150 confirms the reversal pattern. Expected bearish targets are located around 0.7050, 0.6925 and eventually 0.6800.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for September 22, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allows a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where price action should be watched for evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL Entry.

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend reversed when the Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout is being witnessed on the chart. The next Supply level to meet the pair is located around 1.2100 (Level of previous multiple bottoms) where bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry can be anticipated.

On the other hand, if bearish pullback persists below 1.1800 (the depicted uptrend line) and 1.1700, a quick bearish decline should be expected towards the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 where BUY entries can be offered.

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BITCOIN Analysis of September 22, 2017

Bitcoin bearish pressure persist in the market with short-term corrective and volatility can observed as well. The ban on Initial Coin Offering from the Chinese Regulators and ban on Bitcoin exchanges lead to a certain belief in the market that speculators are currently quite confused with the future of this Cryptocurrency. Due to the recent events, a large number of traders and investors are not participating in the Bitcoin market which resulted in lower liquidity in the market leading to further correction and steadiness. Currently, the bearish sentiment is likely to continue in the Bitcoin market that is expected to lead to a further downmove towards $3,000.00 support level in the coming days. The price is currently residing at the Kumo Cloud support with a fresh bearish cross of Tenkan and Kijun Sen. This suggests more bearish price action for the coming days. If the price remains below the $4000.00 resistance level, the bearish pressure is expected to continue further.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/AUD for September 22, 2017

EUR/AUD has been quite corrective and volatile in nature recently. At present, the pair is showing some bearish pressure after being rejected off the 1.5100 resistance level. Today, the eurozone provided several upbeat economic reports. Nevertheless, AUD seems quite dominating currently. Today, French Flash Manufacturing PMI report was published with an increase to 56.0 from the previous figure of 55.8 which was expected to decrease to 55.6, French Flash Services PMI report showed an increase to 57.1 from the previous figure of 54.9 which was expected to decrease to 54.8, German Flash Manufacturing PMI report showed an increase to 60.6 from the previous figure of 59.3 which was expected to decrease to 59.0, German Flash Services PMI report showed an increase to 55.6 from the previous figure of 53.5 which was expected to have a slight increase to 53.8, EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI report showed an increase to 58.2 from the previous figure of 57.4 which was expected to decrease to 57.2, and EUR Flash Services PMI report also showed an increase to 55.6 which was expected to be unchanged at 54.7. On the other hand, Australia does not have any economic reports or event today but earlier all Australian reports were quite positive in nature which did contribute to today's gain. To sum up, despite a series of positive economic reports today EUR could not break above the resistance level of 1.51 which does signal that the market sentiment is changing towards AUD and will lead to further gains in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price has rejected off the resistance level of 1.5100 today amid bearish pressure. The pair is expected to continue a further bearish move towards 1.4800 and later towards 1.4500 support level in the coming days. If the price remains below the 1.5100 resistance level with a daily close, the bearish pressure is likely to continue further.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for September 22, 2017

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Overview:

  • The current price is seen at 0.9674 which represents a key level today. The USD/CHF pair will continue rising from the level of 0.9674 in the long term. It should be noted that the support is established at the level of 0.9674 which represents the daily pivot point on the H1 chart. The price is likely to form a double bottom in the same time frame. Accordingly, the USD/CHF pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 0.9743. So, buy above the level of 0.9743 with the first target at 0.9790 in order to test the daily resistance 2. Also, it should be noted that the level of 0.9790 is a good place to take profits. Moreover, the RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it remains strong above the moving average (100). This suggests that the pair will probably go up in coming hours. If the trend is able to break the level of 0.9790, then the market will call for a strong bullish market towards the objective of 0.9828 today. However, if a breakout happens at 0.9620, this scenario may be invalidated.
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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for September 22, 2017

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair faces resistance at 0.7350, while strong resistance is seen at 0.7400 (today). Support is found at 0.7297 and 0.7273 levels.
  • Today, the NZD/USD pair continues to move downwards from 0.7350 level. The pair could fall from 0.7350 level to the first support around 0.7297.
  • In consequence, if the NZD/USD pair will break support at 0.7297, this level will turn into resistance today. In the H1 time frame, the 0.7331 level is expected to act as minor resistance.
  • Hence, we expect the NZD/USD pair to continue moving in the bearish trend from 0.7297 level towards the target at 0.7297.
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  • In the long term, if the pair succeeds in passing through 0.7297 level , the market will indicate the bearish opportunity below 0.7297 level in order to reach the second target at 0.7273.
  • On the other hand, the 0.7273 mark remains a significant support zone. Thus, the trend will probably rebound again from 0.7273 level as long as this level is not breached. in overall, we still prefer the bullish scenario above the area of 0.7273.
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Global macro overview for 22/09/2017

Global macro overview for 22/09/2017:

A strong market reaction was triggered by the publication of the minutes of Swedish Riksbank's latest meeting minutes (6 September), which raised concerns about the growing risk of overheating of the Swedish economy. The policymakers have warmly adopted a clear improvement in inflationary trends disturbed by the impact of temporary factors. Cecilia Skingsley, Deputy Governor of the Riksbank, decided to hit the dovish tone. In her opinion, the sudden abandonment of quantitative loosening will lead to a wide spectrum of side effects, which will translate into a sharp deterioration of the economic outlook.

At the last meeting, the Executive Board of the Riksbank decided to hold the repo rate unchanged at –0.50%. The first rate increase is expected to occur in mid-2018, which is the same assessment as in the Monetary Policy Report in July. The purchases of government bonds will continue during the second half of 2017, as decided by the Executive Board in April.

Let's now take a look at the USD/SEK technical picture on the H1 time frame after the news was published. Over the course of the day, the Swedish Crown gained 0.5% to the Dollar, but the spike up was short-lived and currently, the market has retraced most of the yesterday's gains. The key level for bulls is the technical support at the level of 7.9335, the market conditions look oversold at the time frame, so a bounce might be expected towards the level of 7.9620. Nevertheless, the larger time frame trend remains bearish.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for September 22, 2017

EUR/USD: This market went upwards on Monday and Tuesday, to nosedive on Wednesday, and then went upwards on Thursday. These short-term swings still emphasis the recent neutrality on the market and it would be OK to wait until there will be a protractedly directional movement, which would most probably be in favor of bears.

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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF pair has been making some bullish attempts this year and there is a slight bullishness in the market. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56, and the Williams' % Range period 20 is not too far from the overbought region. While there may be temporary pauses along the way, the overall movement in the market is supposed to be bullish.

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GBP/USD: The Cable has consolidated so far this week, neither going above the distribution territory at 1.3650, nor going below the accumulation territory at 1.3450. Price needs to go above or below any of the aforementioned accumulation/distribution territories so that a directional movement can occur. The most likely direction is to the upside.

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USD/JPY: Just like EUR/JPY, USD/JPY is also bullish. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the chart and price could continue going upwards, reaching the supply levels at 112.50, 113.00 and 113.50 within the next few trading days. Recently, there has been a slight bearish correction, which might be a good opportunity to buy at a better price.

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EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY pair is currently a bull market. This week, price has gone upwards by 180 pips, having gained 430 pips since September 11, 2017. Further bullish movement is anticipated as price targets the supply zones at 134.50, 135.00 and 135.50.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Sept 22, 2017

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Sept 22, 2017

Global macro overview for 22/09/2017

Global macro overview for 22/09/2017:

The USD was hit by the overnight turmoil that prompted investors to take profits off the table after the USD rally in the wake of the hawkish FOMC statements. Still, the fundamental background that is now being built around the US Dollar may be getting more attractive (hawkish Fed, macroeconomic data improvement, Trump administration pushing the tax reform), which could sustain the USD strength at the end of the year. Today in the calendar there is a few of the Fed members speeches: Williams (10:00 am GMT), George (01:30 pm GMT) and the Chaplain (05:30 am GMT). The latter seems to be the most important, as recently his comments pointed to a diminishing support for the December rally. After the Wednesday decision of the FOMC, and especially after the dotted graph, global investors can assume that Kaplan has maintained his voice for a hike, so his statement is less likely to be dovish again.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture on the H4 time frame. Contrary to popular skepticism, the Philly Fed index was released at 23.8 pts, beating the market with a relatively low median of 17.1 pts. The above result was not only made due to a significant boost to expectations, but also due to a higher cost sub-indexes and a solid inflow of new orders. Expectations of market participants clearly surprised weekly estimates from the US labor market, according to which the application for unemployment benefits submitted only 259k Americans. The relatively high median of forecasts (302k) condemned the implications of Hurricane Irma on the east coast of the United States. Nevertheless, even the good macro data did not help the USD as the index was clearly rejected after a false breakout above the golden trend line around the level of 92.67. The next technical support is seen at the level of 91.62.

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Bitcoin analysis for 22/09/2017

Bitcoin analysis for 22/09/2017:

Due to the fact that China has blocked cryptocurrency exchange in the country, other countries have begun to open more and more to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. A recent statement by Tan Sri Muhammad Ibrahim, Deputy Minister of Malaysian Bank Negara, at the Global Financial Institution Development Symposium, indicates that Malaysia may be open to Bitcoin. Tan Sri Muhammad Ibrahim made it very clear that Bank Negara was working on the cryptanalyst guidelines when he said: "We hope that before the end of the year there will be guidelines for cryptocurrency: in particular those relating to money laundering and terrorism. We want to ensure that there are clear guidelines for those who want to join the sector." Although the statement is unequivocal, it suggests that the government intends to legalize cryptocurrency exchange. Following the introduction of the guidelines, the state will allow its citizens to legally participate in the cryptocurrency market.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H1 time frame. The price deteriorated more from the technical resistance at the level of $4,111 and currently is trading just around the weekly pivot at the level of $3,661. To confirm the top for the wave B at the level of $4,111, the bears' mush push the price lower towards the level of $3,452 or below.

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Trading plan for 22/09/2017

Trading plan for 22/09/2017:

North Korea once again reminds itself of the dreaded hydrogen bomb test, which leads to a jump in risk aversion. The Yen and Frank are the strongest in the Asian trade, but Gold also jumped. USD/JPY has fallen to 111.64, but it is already pulling out at 112, suggesting that once again the market is trying to shake off the "Korean fear" quickly. EUR/USD is holding at 1.1960. AUD and NZD remain the weakest currencies.

On Friday 22nd of September, the event calendar is busy in important news releases. During the London session, a set of Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI's from the Eurozone will be released. During the US session, Canada will release a set of Consumer Price Index and Retail Sales data. The US will release the Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI's as well.

EUR/USD analysis for 22/09/2017:

The set of PMI's from the France, Germany and the rest of the Eurozone are scheduled for release early during the London session. The general sentiment is positive and the market participants expected mostly better numbers than a month ago. Nevertheless, the economic data releases might be quickly overshadowed by the concerns over the geopolitical issues. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, also known as the "Man of the Rocket on a Suicide Mission" (quoted by President Trump), wants to be faithful to his nickname and scare the test of another fusion bomb. Such information was provided by the Foreign Minister of Korea in response to Trump's legal acts aimed at companies working with the Kim regime. The markets have long heard nothing of Korea, so such reminder has frightened some, and the reactions were obvious - JPY, CHF and gold are gaining, South Korean won and yields of US bonds are losing. If the situation escalates, even the US Dollar might gain across the board.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The market bounced from the level just above the technical support and currently is heading back towards the round number of 1.2000. Current moves on this pair are typical for a sideways market which might be about to break out higher. A weekly close above the level of 1.2000 would indicate a bullish trend resumption.

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Market Snapshot: Gold bounces from the channel support line

The price of Gold had bounced from the lower line of the channel support around the level of $1,287 and currently is testing the lower boundary of the old technical support zone. The market conditions remain oversold, so a bounce higher or a sideways move might be expected soon. The next technical resistance is seen at the level of $1,308.

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Market Snapshot: USD/CAD fails to break out above 50%Fibo

The price of USD/CAD has been capped around the level of 1.2361 and were unable to rally higher towards the 61%Fibo retracement at the level of 1.2432 so far. There is a clear bearish divergence between the price and the momentum oscillator, so now the immediate outlook is bearish. The next support is seen at the level of 1.2203.

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for September 22, 2017

The Dollar index despite making a new short-term high near 92.50, is pulling back as expected by our previous post towards the 92 cloud support. Is this a fake breakout like the last time or a back test that will provide a new bounce?

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Red line - resistance

The Dollar index has broken above the red trend line and is now back testing it. Price has also broken above the 4-hour Kumo (cloud) and is back testing it again. The last time price broke above the 4-hour Kumo we witnessed a false break out and a reversal. Will the bearish trend resume? There are high chances of this happening specially if price breaks below support at 91.60.

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On a daily basis, price remains in a bearish long-term channel. Price got rejected yesterday at the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator) and is now trading below the tenkan-sen also. This is a bearish sign. The entire upward correction could be over already. Key support is at 91.50. Break it and we go below 90.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for September 22, 2017

Gold price is showing reversal signs off the $1,290 area and the bottom of the bearish channel. As we were expecting Gold provided a new low below $1,300 and is now rising. Gold price could have already made an important low.

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Red lines - bearish channel

Blue line - expectation

Gold price is bouncing. Price however remains inside the bearish channel and below the kijun-sen and the Kumo (cloud). Resistance is at $1,303 and at $1,317. Breaking above $1,317 will increase dramatically the chances for a full scale reversal and a move towards $1,400.

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Magenta line - resistance

Blue line- long-term support

As we said a couple of months ago, Gold price would reach the resistance line at $1,350 and pull back for a correction before moving higher. This is exactly what is happening now and all we need to see now is a long tailed weekly candle. So this week's close could really signal something bullish for the next weeks. Gold is in a buying area as we mentioned in previous posts. We remain long-term bullish.

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/CHF for September 22, 2017

USD/CHF has been residing inside the corrective structural range of 0.9440-0.9750 area for a few months. After a long dominating bearish trend, the pair has been currently very much volatile, making correction, so there is no sign of a directional bias. After the FOMC hawkish statement and unchanged funds rate, the price has been quite bullish in nature but yesterday bullish rejection has told a different story. Recently, Switzerland's Trade Balance report was published with a worse figure at 2.17B decreasing from the previous figure of 3.49B which was expected to be at least 2.41B. Despite the worse-than-expected report, CHF has been extending gains in the market against USD which does signal that CHF is still holding the power to dominate USD in the market. On the USD side, since FOMC decision on the funds rate USD has found support with the other economic reports as well like Unemployment Claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Today, USD Flash Manufacturing PMI report is going to be published which is expected to show a slight increase to 52.9 from the previous figure of 52.8 and Flash Services PMI report is expected to decrease to 55.8 from the previous figure of 56.0. Though the economic reports from the US today is expected to have a minimal impact in the market against CHF, but better reports may hold CHF gains for a while. As for the current scenario, CHF is expected to have an upper hand over USD in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently residing below the resistance level of 0.9750 which is expected to show more bearish pressure in the coming days. Yesterday, a good amount bullish rejection was encountered in the market after the FOMC bullish statement, which pushed the pair towards the resistance to break above it. As the price remains below the 0.9750 resistance level, it is expected to reach towards the structural support of 0.9440 support level in the coming days. On the other hand, if the price breaks above the 0.9750 with a daily close, then we will consider buy positions with a target towards 1.00.

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Fundamental Analysis of NZD/USD for September 21, 2017

NZD/USD has showed great amount of bullish rejection recently off the resistance level of 0.7370 with a daily close. After the hawkish FOMC Statement providing a hint about December rate hike, USD has spiked against NZD and this is expected to continue further in the coming days. Today, US Unemployment Claims report was better than expected decreasing to 259k from the previous figure of 282k which was expected to increase to 302k, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index report was published with an increase to 23.8 from the previous figure of 18.9 which was expected to decrease to 17.3, HPI report showed an increase to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.1% but it was worse than expected value of 0.4%, CB Leading Index report showed an increase to 0.4% which was expected to be unchanged at 0.3%, and Natural Gas Storage also showed an increase to 97B from the previous figure of 91B which was expected to be at 93B. On the other hand, New Zealand GDP report was published as expected at 0.8% increasing from the previous value of 0.6%, Visitor Arrival report showed less deficit at -0.3% from the previous value of -5.3%, and Credit Card Spending report showed a decrease to 6.4% from the previous value of 7.1%. To sum up, despite having positive economic reports NZD was unable to put pressure on USD throughout the day amid the FOMC policy decision. Besides, after the positive economic reports from the US the bearish pressure has become even stronger. As for the current scenario, further bearish pressure is expected to persist in this pair for the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price has shown a great amount bearish pressure today after the recent bullish rejection off the 0.7370. Currently, the price is expected to proceed lower towards 0.7200 support level and later towards 0.7050 support level. As the price remains below the resistance level of 0.7370, the bearish pressure is set to continue further.

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Bitcoin Analysis for September 21, 2017

Bitcoin has struggled for a long time at the edge of $4,000.00 with the view of breaking above to create higher highs and higher lows to facilitate the gains for the coming days but resulted to drastic fall below the bouncing off. The effect of Chinese Bitcoin exchange ban has not yet worn off and more countries are joining in to claim Bitcoin as unreliable and fraud. Due to bad reports around, the Bitcoin demand has been affected very strongly leading to profit taking by the investors in the market by selling the Cryptocurrency at a greater rate. As for the current situation, the price has bounced off the resistance level of $4,000.00 where the price has attacked for several times to break above. The price is currently impulsively bearish after the bounce and expected to proceed much down towards $3,000.00 support area in the coming days. As the price remains below $4,000.00 level with a daily close, the bearish pressure is expected to continue further in the coming days.

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Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/NZD for September 22, 2017

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Wave summary:

Red wave iv stopped cold at 1.6137 and turned strongly higher and a break above minor resistance at 1.6441 will confirm that red wave iv has completed and red wave v higher towards 1.6875 is developing.

A minor break above 1.6441 will likely be followed by a correction to 1.6245 before turning higher again for the expected rally to 1.6875.

R3: 1.6536

R2: 1.6488

R1: 1.6441

Pivot: 1.6400

S1: 1.6343

S2: 1.6245

S3: 1.6167

Trading recommendation:

We missed our buying opportunity at 1.6060. We will place a new EUR-buy order at 1.6265 with stop placed at 1.6150.

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Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/JPY for September 22, 2017

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Wave summary:

EUR/JPY is fighting to maintain the rally in wave D intact, but obviously it's becoming quite a struggle. However, as long as minor support at 133.24 is holding firm, the uptrend remains firmly in place for a possible push higher to 134.80 and 136.14 on the way towards the ideal wave D target at 137.36.

If however support at 133.24 is broken, that will weaken the uptrend and call for a decline to at least 132.00, before the possibility of a new rally higher.

R3: 136.14

R2: 134.80

R1: 134.39

Pivot: 134.00

S1: 133.24

S2: 132.00

S3: 130.55

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 131.76. We will lift our stop to 133.15. We will take half profit at 134.80.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Sept 22, 2017

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When the European market opens, the economic calendar is packed with economic reports such as Belgian NBB Business Climate, Flash Services PMI, Flash Manufacturing PMI, German Flash Services PMI, German Flash Manufacturing PMI, French Flash Services PMI, and French Flash Manufacturing PMI. The US will present some statistics too such as Flash Services PMI and Flash Manufacturing PMI. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with average volatility during this trading say.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.2002.

Strong Resistance:1.1995.

Original Resistance: 1.1983.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1971.

Target Inner Area: 1.1943.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1915.

Original Support: 1.1903.

Strong Support: 1.1891.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1884.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Sept 22, 2017

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In Asia, Japan today will not release any economic data. However, the US is due to present some statistics such as Flash Services PMI and Flash Manufacturing PMI. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 112.69.

Resistance. 2: 112.47.

Resistance. 1: 112.25.

Support. 1: 111.97.

Support. 2: 111.75.

Support. 3: 111.53.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD/JPY holding well above our ascending support, remain bullish

Price is seeing strong support above 88.92 (Fibonacci retracement, ascending support) and we expect to see price continue on its bullish trend by making a push up to 89.79 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance).

Stochastic (34,3,1) is seeing strong support above 5% and we expect a bounce above this level.

Buy above 88.92. Stop loss at 88.50. Take profit at 89.79.

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USD/JPY look to buy on dips for a further push up

Price has continued to rise strongly and we look to buy on dips above 111.71 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support) for a further push up to at least 113.41 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance).

RSI (34) sees support above 50% where we expect further bullish momentum from.

Buy above 111.71. Stop loss at 110.97. Take profit at 113.41.

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AUD/USD testing major support, prepare to buy for a corrective bounce

Price has dropped strongly and is now testing major support at 0.7916 (Fibonacci extension, Fibonacci retracement). We expect to see a corrective bounce from this level to push price up to at least 0.7986 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance). Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major support above 4.7% where we expect a bounce from too.

Buy above 0.7913. Stop loss at 0.7869. Take profit at 0.7986.

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EUR/USD bounced up perfectly to our profit target, prepare to sell on major resistance

Price has bounced up strongly as expected. We now prepare to sell below major resistance at 1.1966 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance, Fibonacci extension) for a push down to at least 1.1869 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (34,3,1) is seeing major resistance below 92% and we expect a drop from this level.

Sell below 1.1966. Stop loss at 1.2001. Take profit at 1.1869.

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USD/CHF approaching our major support, prepare to buy

Price continues to inch down towards our buying area. We remain bullish looking to buy on dips above 0.9679 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support) for a further push up to 0.9757 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance).

RSI (34) has made a bullish exit of our triangle formation and remains in a bullish configuration.

Buy above 0.9679. Stop loss at 0.9629. Take profit at 0.9757.

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NZD/USD right on our buying area, remain bullish for a bounce

Price has dropped as expected to our buying area. We look to buy above strong support at 0.7303 (Fibonacci retracement, swing low support, bullish price action) and we expect a bounce above this level to push price up to at least 0.7409 resistance (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance).

Stochastic (21,5,3) is seeing strong support above 3.9% where we expect a bounce from.

Buy above 0.7303. Stop loss at 0.7243. Take profit at 0.7409.

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Daily analysis of USDX for September 22, 2017

USDX received a boost from the Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged and by the hawkish tone of its statement. The 200 SMA on H1 chart remains as the dynamic support across the board and one could expect further gains to take place towards the resistance level of 93.09. To the downside, the nearest support is still located at the 91.67 level.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 93.09 / 94.04

H1 chart's support levels: 91.67 / 90.30

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 91.67, take profit is at 90.30 and stop loss is at 93.04.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for September 22, 2017

GBP/USD has been trading sideways despite Fed's policy decision to keep its stance unchange. The pair is approaching the 200 SMA on H1 chart, where it could gather momentum in order to ride the bullish sequence towards the resistance level of 1.3755. Bollinger bands are tight, calling for a decisive move in the short term.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3592 / 1.3755

H1 chart's support levels: 1.3309 / 1.3209

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.3592, take profit is at 1.3755 and stop loss is at 1.3430.

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FOMC meeting: Markets received exactly what they expected

The dollar rose slightly on Wednesday after the announcement of the results of the two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which generally met the expectations of the market.

FOMC announced its intention to launch a program to normalize the balance sheet in October. It is expected that the monthly volume of cuts will be $ 10 billion.

The Fed's updated forecasts on rates and the economy also generally met expectations. The forecast for GDP for 2017 increased from 2.2% to 2.4%, and the forecast for the unemployment rate for 2018/19 was also improved, but the forecast for core inflation for the next two years was worsened.

Most of all the market was interested in the forecast on rates. The Fed confirmed its intention to raise the rate again this year and three times in 2018, which led to an increase in market expectations of up to 72% (according to the CME futures market data).

At the press conference, Janet Yellen did not directly answer the question of why the Fed does not react to the slowing of inflation by mitigating the policy. Yellen answered only that she was "inspired" by improvements in the labor market. The answer of the head of the FRS should be understood in such a way that the regulator continues to believe in the "Philips curve" and assumes that the factor of full employment will ensure inflation growth.

Eurozone

The economic sentiment indicator in Germany ZEW increased in September to 17.0p. against 10.0p a month earlier, but remains below the long-term average of 23.8p. In the release notes that the German economy is experiencing strong growth, markedly increased bank lending and investment activities of both the government and private firms.

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The euro, which in recent years has been actively used as a funding currency, remains under pressure amid growing interest in risk. The probability of correction by EUR/USD to 1.16 is preserved against the background of a high probability of dollar growth in the short term.

United Kingdom

Retail sales unexpectedly rose in August, well above forecasts, the fastest pace in the last 4 months. The growth was 1.0% vs. 0.6% a month earlier, a year-on-year growth of 2.4% vs. 1.4%, in both cases the market expected a slowdown, not growth.

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Strong growth in retail sales increases the likelihood of the Bank of England tightening its program. At the same time, the market reacted quite moderately to surprisingly high rates, the pound did not leave the hour channel and quickly returned to the average daily levels.

Negotiations on Brexit remain a strong risk factor. More and more politicians are inclined to the fact that the negotiations will fail, and the EU and Britain will be forced in their trade relations to switch from the free trade regime to WTO rules, which will cause the British economy more damage than currently estimated by the market. British banks may lose the right to conduct business in the EU without creating subsidiaries, which will inevitably worsen the state of the financial system, and the reduction in exports due to rising tariff rates will jeopardize the labor market and the real incomes of citizens.

The pound showed impressive dynamics in the last month, however, for the continuation of the growth of the grounds, so far. The pound may update its maximum and reach 1.3850 / 3950, but only if there are real grounds for expecting a positive in Brexit negotiations. More likely scenario is the corrective reduction in the support zone of 1.3100 / 3250.

Oil and the ruble

The OPEC Technical Committee on Monitoring said on Wednesday that the OPEC + agreement was fulfilled in August by 116%, which is much higher than 94% a month earlier, and by the end of the first half of the year, compliance with the agreement was 98%, which can be regarded as a clear success. On September 22, the committee will hold a special meeting in preparation for the ministerial meeting in November, where it is expected that a decision on the extension of the agreement after March 2018 will be taken.

The decision of the FOMC to raise the forecast for GDP for 2017 also had an impact on the growth of quotations, as it indicates the probability of outstripping demand for oil and oil products.

Brent for the first time since April has risen above $ 56 per barrel, positive sentiments continue to dominate.

The decline in the ruble is corrective after a steady growth in August-September. The strengthening of the ruble is currently hindered by the growth of the dollar after the meeting of the FOMC, but in the long term the ruble feels quite confident, and one can expect that the factor of growing oil and the approaching tax period will prevail in investor sentiment. For the short term one can expect the end of the weakening period and the decrease of USD/RUB to 57.50.

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