BITCOIN Analysis for August 29, 2018

Bitcoin has been quite impulsive with the recent bullish gains which has pushed the price higher above $7,000 area with a daily close which is expected to push further upward with target towards $8,000 in the coming days. The dynamic levels of 20 EMA, Tenkan and Kijun are going to have a Favorable Bullish Crossover which is indicating further bullish momentum in the process. Though the price can correct itself and show certain volatility as Kumo Cloud resistance is met but the overall pressure is impulsively bullish at the moment. As for the current scenario, the dynamic levels are expected to hold the price as support and price line cross over by the Chikou Span is expected to inject further bullish bias in the market which is expected to lead to further bullish momentum in the process with a target towards $8,000 and later towards $10,000 area in the future.

SUPPORT: 6000, 6500

RESISTANCE: 8000, 10000

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: IMPULSIVE and NON-VOLATILE

analytics5b868943b09e4.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD. August 28. Results of the day. The weakening of the US dollar has no effect on the pound sterling rate

4-hour timeframe

L9vIRIERC1QLgC2FS_851lV8Ge4TvyKjUOhx_cwo

The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 131p - 77p - 113p - 81p - 72p.

The average amplitude for the last 5 days: 95p (94p).

The second trading day of the week ends disappointment for the British currency again. No, the pound rate did not decline at the end of the day, although the day is not yet over. Another thing is important. That there is no strengthening of the pound sterling, while the US dollar is falling against many other currencies. This once again proves the weakness of the pound, the lack of people willing to invest in the British economy, and shows a huge number of problems in the UK, which traders can not ignore. Thus, the conclusion for the British currency is disappointing - as long as the British government does not solve its political crisis, issues with Brexit, and will not improve the macroeconomic indicators, the pound has only a small corrective growth. For traders this means that long positions will remain short-term and small lots. What is even more remarkable is that after reaching the local maximum area, sales of the pound began. Perhaps, traders are preparing for new long-term purchases of the US currency against the British pound. If so, then the outlook for the pound becomes even less rosy. But Donald Trump will find it difficult enough to depreciate the US currency against the British. However, the US leader will certainly come up with something.

Trading recommendations:

The GBP / USD currency pair on the US trading session began a correction, which the MACD indicator has not yet responded to. Nevertheless, the long lines remain risky enough. And if the price overcomes the critical line, then they will not become actual at all.

Short positions are recommended to be considered after consolidation of traders below the critical line. In this case, the chances of starting a new downward trend will increase, and shorts will become relevant with the targets of 1.2788 and 1.2738.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations to the illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen is a red line.

Kijun-sen is a blue line.

Senkou Span A is a light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - a light purple dotted line.

Chinkou Span is a green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Euro looks even stronger

Eurozone

Economic indicators show the recovery of business activity in the euro area after a half-year weakening. In July, bank lending in the euro area grew by 4.1%, the highest growth since May 2009, the growth of capital investments indicates that the business positively assesses the state of the economy.

The same conclusion was reached in the CESifo group. All three indicators assessing the business climate show a noticeable increase. Companies are satisfied with the current situation, expectations are more optimistic, business confidence is growing.

analytics5b8637d371d6c.png

The improvement in expectations is primarily due to the positive outcome of trade negotiations between the EU and the US in July, during which the parties agreed to refrain from unilateral steps on duties. At the same time, there are fears that the agreement will be short-lived, as the American side will link it with concessions in other areas, in particular, demanding to stop cooperation with Iran.

In addition, let's not forget that the trade war unleashed by the Trump administration is not at all spontaneous, but it is called upon to replace the falling budget revenues due to the start of the tax reform and to facilitate the repatriation of capital to the United States. In other words, the revision of trade relations is part of the strategy, and not an isolated step, and if so, then any agreements must lie within the framework of the strategy, otherwise they will not work.

In the eurozone itself, there is growing awareness that the current monetary policy should be revised. In this vein, the chief economist of the ECB, Peter Prat, spoke on Tuesday, noting the growth of a number of risks, in particular, the growth of the value of bonds and real estate prices.

On Thursday, European Commission will present its view on the dynamics of business activity in the euro area, positive forecasts, on Friday Eurostat will publish preliminary data on consumer inflation in August.

In general, the mood in the EURUSD pair remains bullish, the euro is trying to get out of the descending channel, during the day an attempt is likely to test resistance 1.1750 and gain a foothold higher.

United Kingdom

This week the pound is trading in the sideways range, as no important macroeconomic news is published, and Monday was a day off. The reaction to the reduction in tension, provoked by the Friday speech of the head of the Federal Reserve Powell, occurred on Tuesday, when the yields on government bonds went up sharply. For example, 10-year securities had a yield of 1.277% on Friday evening, and on Tuesday opening at 1.451%, yield growth was provoked by the sale of bonds, which indicates a change in investor sentiment.

In the foreground there are still political risks associated with Brexit. Investors assess the probability of a deal at the EU summit in October as low, but they expect that by December the decision will still be found. The British government is trying to make a good face in a bad game, Theresa May told reporters on Tuesday that the lack of agreement is better than a bad agreement.

Nevertheless, lack of clarity hinders investors in financing projects in the UK, which, in turn, reduces demand for the pound. Today, GBP / USD will once again spend the day in the side range, support 1.2827, resistance is the recent high of 1.2935.

Oil

Corrective decline in the dollar index contributed to higher prices for raw materials and, in particular, for oil. The likely slowdown in Fed growth rates in 2019 is seen by the markets as a positive factor for the growth of the global economy as a whole, and so growth in demand for oil and oil products is likely.

The growth of quotations also contributed to the reduction in oil reserves in the US last week, the reduction in the number of active drilling rigs, as well as increased pressure on Iran.

Brent has a potential for growth in the short term to $ 78 / bbl, which roughly corresponds to the upper boundary of the downward channel of recent months. At the same time, one must proceed from the fact that the current weakening of the dollar may turn out to be temporary, and the achievement of this resistance will provoke sales.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of EUR / USD Divergences on August 29. Is the Euro-currency growth complete?

4h

analytics5b863725dc20e.png

The EUR / USD pair on the 4-hour chart reversed in favor of the US currency and returned to the correction level of 76.4% - 1.1675 after the bearish divergence of the CCI indicator. Quit on August 29 from the Fibo level of 76.4% will allow traders to expect a turn in favor of the EU currency and resumption of growth towards the corrective level of 100.0% - 1.1791. The consolidation of the pair's rate below the Fibo level of 76.4% will increase the chances of the pair to further fall in the direction of the next correction level of 61.8% to 1.1605.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from July 9, 2018 and August 15, 2018.

Daily

analytics5b86372f7441c.png

On the 24-hour chart, the pair continues the growth process towards the correctional level of 76.4% - 1.1789. The breakdown of the pair from the correction level of 76.4% will allow us to count on a reversal in favor of the US dollar and a slight drop towards the Fibo level of 100.0% - 1.1553. Brewing divergences in this chart are not observed in any indicator. The closing of quotes above the correction level of 76.4% will work in favor of further growth of the pair in the direction of the next level Fibo 61.8% - 1.1938.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from November 7, 2017 and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations for traders:

Purchases of the EUR / USD pair will be possible with the target of 1,1791 with a stop loss order under the Fibo level of 76.4% if the pair retires from the correction level of 1.1675.

Sales of the EUR / USD pair will be possible with the target of 1,1605 if the pair completes the closing under the Fibo level of 76.4%, with a Stop Loss order above 1.1675.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Belief in the US economy at the maximum

Yesterday's data released in the second half of the day provided significant support to the US dollar, while the political situation in Italy begins to gradually alienate investors from risky assets.

According to the Conference Board report, consumer confidence in the US increased in August this year.

Thus, the consumer confidence index rose to 133.4 points from 127.9 points in July, while many economists expected the index to fall to a level of 126.5 points. The index of current conditions also increased, together with the index of expectations.

analytics5b86436a7a4b7.png

As noted in the Conference Board, a good labor market situation and strong economic growth have a positive impact on the assessment of households' trust.

Yesterday, a report was released from the US Department of Commerce, according to which in July 2018, the deficit of foreign trade in US goods rose to 72.2 billion dollars from 67.9 billion dollars in June. The data is preliminary, but despite this, it can be seen that the measures taken by the White House are not sufficient to reduce the trade deficit.

Export of goods for the reporting period fell to $ 140 billion compared to $ 142.5 billion in June, while imports rose to $ 212.2 billion from $ 210.4 billion in June.

Housing prices in the US have slowed slightly due to high mortgage rates and reduced availability of offers.

According to the report, the national housing price index in June rose by 6.2% compared to a year earlier, after rising by 6.4% in May. The index of housing prices for 10 megacities over the reporting period grew by 6%. Economists predicted that the previous price increase would continue.

A good report on the growth of production activity in the area of responsibility of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond helped strengthen the US dollar. According to the data, the production index in August this year rose to 24 points against 20 points in July. Economists predicted that the index in August will be 17 points.

Yesterday's statements, made by the US Treasury, did not impress investors.

Mnuchin noted that trade talks with Canada may end this week, and he expects to reach an agreement with Canada and is ready to move forward. The Minister was pleased with the progress that has now been made in the negotiations with China and the EU on trade issues.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The "Canadian" has prospects for growth

After it became known about the agreement on free trade (NAFTA) between the US and Mexico, which was the impetus for the growth of optimism in world markets, on Tuesday, or rather on the night from Tuesday to Wednesday, the press leaked news about the beginning of negotiations between the States and Canada.

The news is really positive, because if an agreement is reached between neighbors in the North American continent, then the US, through its president, can already concentrate fully on hacking the defense of China and Europe. If Europe is practically defeated and weakly floundering in the hands of the winner, trying to minimize losses and protect its financial market from American pressure, then China remains a tough nut to crack, which the States can break their teeth.

In our opinion, the likely positive outcome of the negotiations on free North American trade (NAFTA) will undoubtedly have a positive impact on the mood of investors, but will not be decisive, since this market is local and will not be able to compensate for the main contradictions between Washington and Beijing due to weak influence on the general situation in the world economy. We are confident that the US will "pin down" all its political as well as economic satellites. But it will be difficult for them to do this with the Chinese, who have their own view of both the political and the economic processes in the world.

Against the backdrop of these events, we believe that after the agreement between the US and Canada, the Canadian dollar will receive support, as this factor will be the third and significant in importance after the expectation of a rate hike by the Bank of Canada in September and rising crude oil prices. Therefore, we consider it possible to continue selling US dollar / Canadian dollar.

Assessing the nearest prospects of the currency market, we believe that the dollar will remain under pressure, but in general, it will continue to trade in the lateral range against the major currencies, moving from the lower borders to the upper ones and vice versa.

Forecast of the day:

The AUD / USD currency pair is trading below the 0.7330 level, remaining in the side range. A breakthrough at the 0.7310 marks could lead to a further drop to 0.7255.

The currency pair USD / CAD is trading above 1.2900. It has the prospect of continuing the decline amid the expected conclusion of an agreement between the United States and Canada on free North American trade (NAFTA). We consider it possible to sell the pair on growth from 1.2950 or on its decline to the level of 1.2900 with the target of 1.2800-15.

analytics5b86395ef1c09.png

analytics5b86396daba2d.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for the European session on August 29 EUR / USD

To open long positions for EUR / USD, you need:

Yesterday, the buyers failed to keep the resistance level of 1.1696, and today, all attention is again concentrated on this area. Only its repeated breakthrough could lead to an upward trend in the euro in the expectation of renewing the area of 1.1721, which will open new local highs of 1.1765 and 1.1792, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of a decline in EUR / USD in the morning, I recommend buying only a rebound from 1.1625 and support of 1.1584.

To open short positions for EUR / USD, you need:

Bears yesterday returned the pair to the level of 1.1696, and while the trade is below this range, the pressure on the euro will continue. The repeated test of support 1.1666 will lead to a new wave of sales of EUR / USD in the area of 1.1625 and 1.1584, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of growth above 1.1696 in the morning, sales can be seen on the rebound of 1.1721 or 1.1765.

analytics5b86381991886.png

Description of indicators

MA (average sliding) 50 days - yellow

MA (average sliding) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD pair for August 28. Results of the day. Ideal time for trading

4-hour timeframe

zM8A6kKwihi11hrXGQcNX6K6Px2KidbO4tjSPtfu

Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 121p - 70p - 70p - 105p - 99p.

The average amplitude for the last 5 days: 93n (91p).

The European currency continues to show purely technical growth. The most important thing is that the growth is almost recoilless, which is very easy to work out. There is still no reason to assume that the strengthening of the European currency is somehow connected with the EU itself. Most likely, traders continue to reduce short positions on the instrument, which leads to the growth of the euro. However, sooner or later this growth of the euro will be completed, after which the descending trend with high probability will resume. Only Donald Trump himself, who first bargained for himself the best trading conditions with Mexico and the European Union, can only hinder this, now he puts pressure on China, Canada, and Turkey, and in the future may affect other countries. In addition, and the US dollar in recent weeks is falling against the euro, which can not but rejoice the leader of America. To prevent the further strengthening of the dollar, Trump can already standard methods for him. Scandal, for example. Recently, the media has been discussing the topic of Trump's relations with Russia, which influenced the outcome of the presidential election. Thus, any new information on this matter can disbelieve traders in the advisability of new purchases of the American currency. Although in recent months, the dollar has not been bought only by the lazy, and the fundamental reasons were not always present. Thus, it is Donald Trump who continues to rule the ball in the foreign exchange market. And we advise market participants to continue with increased interest in any statements by the US president and his publications on social networks.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues to move up. Thus, for today and tomorrow morning, it is recommended to continue trading on the rise with the nearest target of 1,1797. The signal to the manual reduction of the long lines will be the turn of the MACD indicator downwards.

Sell-positions with small lots can be considered if the MACD indicator turns down, and the price is fixed below the level of 1.1709. In this case, one can expect a correction with the goal of the critical Kijun-sen line.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations to the illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen is a red line.

Kijun-sen is a blue line.

Senkou Span A is a light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - a light purple dotted line.

Chikou Span is a green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for August 29, 2018

analytics5b8676ca4144e.png

Trading recommendations:

According to the H4 time - frame, I found that price broke the inverted head and shoulders pattern in the background, which is a sign that buyers are in control. Most recently I found the small sideways base and my advice is to watch a breakout of resistance to confirm further upward continuation. The projected target is set at the price of $7.444.00.

Support/Resistance

$7.088 – Intraday resistance

$6.953– Intraday support

$7.444 – Objective target

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

NZD/USD short-term technical levels and trading recommendations for August 29, 2018

analytics5b867314a5781.png

The NZD/USD pair has been trending-up for the past few days. This bullish movement has been demonstrated within the depicted bullish linear regression channels.

During today's consolidations, lack of enough bullish momentum was demonstrated on the chart. The NZD/USD pair demonstrated a false bearish breakout below the depicted movement channels. However, immediate bullish recovery was triggered around 0.6690.

The pair remains bullish within depicted channels. Expected bullish targets are projected towards 0.6720 (midline of the channels) and 0.6750 (upper limit of the channels). Signs of bearish rejection can be watched around these levels.

Overall, bullish weakness and bearish tendency remain dominant as long as the NZD/USD pair fails to achieve higher highs above 0.6720.

Hence, bearish positions are preferred in the current situation. Intraday Kky-resistance is located around 0.6750. Intraday key-support is located around 0.6990.

For conservative traders, a valid sell position can be indicated when a bearish breakout below 0.6690 is achieved. T/P level should be located around 0.6650.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of Gold for August 29, 2018

analytics5b8674d20486b.png

Recently, Gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $1,199.00. Anyway, according to the H1 time – frame, I found strong support at the price of $1,199.00. The support line is a lower diagonal of the upward channel, which suggests a good area for buying opportunities. The stochastic oscillator is in the oversold area and that is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of $1,213.50 and at the price of $1,219.10.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,209.90

R2: $1,219.20

R3: $1,224.58

Support levels:

S1: $1,195.29

S2: $1,189.90

S3: $1,180.65

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD analysis for August 29, 2018

analytics5b866fd43c7fb.png

Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.1664. Anyway, according to the M30 time – frame, I found strong intraday support at the price of 1.1660 (support 1 and yesterday's low), which is a sign that selling looks risky. I also found a hidden bullish divergence on the stochastic oscillator, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.1697 and at the price of 1.1730.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1730

R2: 1.1767

R3: 1.1800

Support levels:

S1: 1.1660

S2: 1.1622

S3: 1.1589

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD short-term technical levels and trading recommendations for for August 29, 2018

analytics5b866c9cca858.png

The EUR/USD pair has been trending-up for the past few days. This bullish movement has been demonstrated within the depicted bullish linear regression channels.

By the end of yesterday's consolidation, lack of enough bullish momentum was demonstrated on the chart. The EUR/USD pair failed to maintain enough bullish momentum to keep going within the depicted channels.

Instead, bearish breakout was executed during early hours of Today's consolidations. This turns the short-term outlook into bearish as long as the pair keeps trading below 1.1700.

Intraday bearish target would be located around 1.1600.

Conservative traders should wait for a deeper bullish pullback towards 1.1700 (backside of the broken channels) for a low-risk SELL entry. S/L would be placed above 1.1740. T/P levels should be placed around 1.1600.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 29, 2018

analytics5b866ade7cdf1.png

In April, bearish breakdown of 0.7220-0.7170 (lower limit of the consolidation range) allowed quick bearish decline towards 0.6700-0.6800 where narrow ranged consolidation range was established.

On July 7, evident bullish rejection pushed the NZD/USD pair above 0.6820 temporarily.

However, lack of bullish momentum made the bulls fail to maintain enough bullish momentum above 0.6700.

On August 9, bearish breakout below the depicted consolidation range (0.6700-0.6840) was executed. This allowed the recent bearish decline to occur towards 0.6600-0.6570.

The NZD/USD pair outlook turned to be bearish. Bearish targets are projected towards the price levels of 0.6520 and 0.6480.

Recently, early signs of bullish recovery were manifested around the recent low around 0.6550. This allowed the current bullish pullback to be demonstrated.

Conservative traders should wait for deeper bullish pullback towards 0.6750 for a low-risk SELL entry. S/L should be placed above 0.6850 while T/P levels should be located at 0.6620 and 0.6550.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for August 29, 2018

analytics5b86660ece933.png

In April 2018, the EUR/USD pair outlook turned to become bearish when the pair pursued trading below the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range (1.2200).

The price level of 1.1500 offered temporary bullish recovery towards 1.1830. The EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets. Instead, a descending high was established around 1.1800.

On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair tested the price zone of 1.1400-1.1300 where the depicted trend lines were located on the chart.

On August 10, temporary bearish closure below 1.1400 was achieved. This allowed further bearish decline towards 1.1300 where evident bullish recovery was demonstrated.

This week, the current bullish pullback is persisting above 1.1520, the bearish scenario would be hindered for the short-term. Further bullish advancement should be expected towards 1.1750.

Conservative traders should be watching the next price zone (1.1750-1.1850) for evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry. Initial bearish targets would be located at 1.1550 and 1.1420.

On the other hand, for the weekly Head & Shoulders reversal pattern to be confirmed, the EUR/USD pair needs obvious bearish persistence below 1.1400.

Trade Recommendations:

The price zone of 1.1750-1.1850 should be watched for a valid SELL entry. S/L should be located above 1.1880. T/P levels to be located at 1.1550 and 1.1420.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for August 29, 2018

analytics5b865a3e9d8ca.png

Overview:

The GBP/USD pair rose from the level of 1.2854 towards 1.2936 last week. Now, the current price is set at 1.2845. On the H1 chart, the resistance is seen at the levels of 1.2936 and 1.2973. Besides, the weekly support 1 is seen at the level of 1.2817. Today, the GBP/USD pair is continuing to move in a bullish trend from the new support level of 1.2854, to form a bullish channel. Amid the previous events, we expect the pair to move between 1.2854 and 1.2973. Therefore, buy above the level of 1.2854 with the first target at 1.2936 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 1.2973 (double top). However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 1.2973, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the level of 1.2973. The market will decline further to 1.2854 in order to return to the weekly pivot point. Additionally, a breakout of that target will push the pair further downwards to 1.2735. Besides, it should be noted that the weekly pivot is seen at the level of 1.2854. Moreover, the market is still in an uptrend. We still prefer the bullish scenario.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of AUD/USD for August 29, 2018

analytics5b8657eb0e83d.pngThe AUD/USD pair continued to move upwards from the level of 0.7263. Since yesterday, the pair has risen from the level of 0.7263 (the level of 0.7263 coincides with the ratio of 23.6% Fibonacci Expansion). In consequence, the AUD/USD pair broke resistance at 0.7263, which turned into strong support at the level of 0.7329. In the H1 time frame, the level of 0.7263 is expected to act as major support today. Currently, the price is moving in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish market. The price is still above the moving average (100) and (50). From this point, we expect the AUD/USD pair to continue moving in the bullish trend from the support level of 0.7263 towards the target level of 0.7299. If the pair succeeds in passing through the level of 0.7299, the market will indicate the bullish opportunity above the level of 0.7299 so as to reach the second target at 0.7359 (pivot point). On the other hand, if the AUD/USD pair is able to break out the level of 0.7234, the market will decline further to 0.7204.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD as of August 29, 2018

EUR / USD

On Tuesday, US macroeconomic indicators came out generally positive, but the momentum of the market and speculative optimism allowed the euro as close as possible to the lower limit of the range 1.1750-1.1822. The consumer confidence index from the Conference Board for August increased from 127.9 (revised to increase from 127.4) to 133.4. Wholesale stocks for July increased by 0.7% against expectations of 0.1%. Business activity in Richmond this month rose from 20 to 24 against expectations of a decline to 18. The US trade balance for July came in worse than expected at -72.2 billion dollars against -68.6 billion. Also, the house price index reduced the rate from 6.5% YoY to 6.3% YoY. Stock indices showed weak growth.

analytics5b862527e72af.png

On the daily chart, the price was fixed above the indicator line of the balance sheet, formally the euro could rise higher enough, but it causes concern for the formation of such condition immediately before a strong technical range. In case of a rapid growth, we would have no doubt that the range of 1.1750-1.1822 can be overcome, but the market uncertainty allowed the Marlin oscillator signal line on the four-hour chart to go under the supporting trend line, this is the first signal that Marlin can go into a negative zone, indicating the depletion of the market.

analytics5b86253c1eb34.png

The signal level at 1.1623 determines the further decline in the price, from which it unfolded thrice since the end of July. At the same time, the balance line can be overcome both on the 4-hour chart and on the daily timeframe, and the daily support of the balance line is already at the 1.1655 level. But while waiting for this to happen, we anticipates for one more attempt of the euro to attack the technical range above it.Today, the main event will be the publication of the revised US GDP for the second quarter, with a forecast of 4.0% against 4.1% in the first assessment. The figure is considered strong even if it is lower than the initial estimate. And, it is possible that today's release may be even better than the forecast, since Atlanta's FRB declared an estimate of 4.6% for the third quarter. In this case, the development of a negative scenario for the euro can be realized completely, the goal is to support the trend line at 1.1532 in the future for several days. Tomorrow, the data on personal expenses of consumers for July is expected, with a forecast of -0.4%.

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/AUD Reversed Off Resistance, Prepare For Further Drop

EUR/AUD reversed off its resistance at 1.5954(61.8% Fibonacci extension, 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance) where it is expected to drop further to its support at 1.5734 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).

Stochastic (89, 5, 3) reversed off its resistance at 97% where a corresponding drop is expected.

EUR/AUD reversed off its resistance where we expect to see a further drop.

Sell below 1.5954. Stop loss at 1.6066. Take profit at 1.5734.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD Reversed Off Resistance, Prepare For Further Drop

EUR/USD reversed off its resistance at 1.1748 (38.2% & 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance) where it is expected to drop further to its support at 1.1593 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (55, 5, 3) reversed off its resistance at 96% where a corresponding drop is expected.

EUR/USD reversed off its resistance where we expect to see a further drop.

Sell below 1.1748. Stop loss at 1.1836. Take profit at 1.1593.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for August 29, 2018

EUR/USD has reached the 1.1730 previous resistance area and pulled back as expected. Although trend remains bullish as the price remains inside a bullish channel, we warned yesterday that the RSI was giving bearish divergence signs and that a pullback should be expected.

analytics5b86447a62474.png

Green lines - bullish channel

Blue line - bearish divergence

EUR/USD has short-term support at 1.1650 at the lower channel boundary. If this level is broken, we should expect the prices to continue lower towards 1.1570 where we find the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the entire rise from 1.13. If this level is broken too, we should then expect EUR/USD to fall as far as the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement which is the next important support. Another break above 1.1730 will be a very bullish sign specially if accompanied by a new RSI high in the 4 hour chart. This will increase dramatically the chances that low at 1.13 is a major low. If however, the price makes new high with bearish RSI divergence, bulls should be very cautious as the market will be preparing for a deeper pullback.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of Gold for August 29, 2018

Gold price is pulling back towards $1,200 for a back test of the break out. Price has also broken above the long-term wedge pattern and has started making higher highs and higher lows in short time frames. This could be the start of a bigger bounce towards $1,220-$1,250 as long as we hold above $1,180.

analytics5b8642d820bd5.png

Black lines - wedge pattern (broken)

Green lines - bullish short-term channel

Gold price is rising inside a short-term bullish channel. Short-term support is first at $1,200 and next at $1,190. We could see $1,190 as a back test of the broken wedge pattern, however this is not necessary. Resistance is at $1,205 and next at $1,214 yesterday's highs. A break above this level will open the way for a move towards $1,220-30 at least. I'm bullish as long as we trade above $1,180.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 29/08/2018

The price of WTI crude oil increased by almost $6 recently, but after the weekend, despite significant events like NAFA agreement news, the price still oscillates around Monday's open level.

The latest report on oil production among OPEC countries is very interesting to read. It turns out that the cartel is systematically approaching the intended goal, implementing in July 109% of the plan to reduce production. In June, it was 120%, while it was a result caused by the severe crisis in Venezuela and the stoppage of production in Libya. The fact is, however, that the countries participating in the agreement significantly increased their production.

On Monday, a coalition led by Saudi Arabia carried out strong bombing raids on Huti rebel positions in the northern part of Yemen. The attack was in a way a response to the intensified attacks supported by Iran Huti. Markets did not really care about this event, but it has its justification. The area of Bab el-Mandab has been mentioned in various financial media many times: Saudi Arabia at the end of July decided to suspend transports on this route for a few days, precisely because of the Huti attack on two oil tankers. Regardless if it was only a form of pressure on the Western countries to refrain from cooperation with Iran or actual fears of losing the oil transports.

Let's now take a look at the Crude Oil technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has made a lower low at the level of 69.32, but the price is still trading above the trend line support and as long as it stays above, the short-term outlook remains bullish. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 68.13 and then at 67.59. Please notice the overbought market conditions and practically neutral momentum at the time of writing the article.

analytics5b863c7c9f555.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for 29/08/2018

Optimism associated with the more conciliatory attitude of the United States in negotiations with trade partners temporarily diminishes as a driving force of market change. At night, trade was very dreamy today, but the dollar's minimal appreciation is a noticeable trend. WTI crude oil after inventory data according to API is close to the minima this week, but also less than USD 1 from local maxima around 69.20.

EUR / USD falls below 1.17 and GBP / USD moves back towards 1.2850. USD / JPY defended 111.00 and it is about 20 pips higher. The weakest is AUD as it is losing to USD 0.4%.

In the US session, the SP500 and Nasdaq Composite broke new bull market records, but the scale of increases was symbolic. The futures contract for SP500 is at 2900 points. In Asian markets, the calm day of Shanghai Composite falls 0.25%, a similar scale, but the rise, notes Hang Seng and Nikkei 225.

An interesting session is being prepared for Wednesday, the 29th of August. By noon market participants will get data on consumption in Germany (GfK Consumer Climate) and the state of the economy in France (GDP and Consumer Spending). Later it will be even more interesting - the US will publish information on GDP growth, the real estate market and oil inventories. Closer to reaching agreement on the issue of NAFTA, Canada is ready to defend the pact. The finale of the Brexit negotiations is also slowly being clarified.

GBP/USD analysis for 29/08/2018:

The issue of Great Britain's negotiations on the exit from the European Union is very unclear. The recent article in one of the popular financial media reached "people familiar with the subject", and it was written, that there is no chance of reaching an agreement in October. The new deadline is now set to mid-November.

The EU meeting will start on October 18 and it was this date that was previously considered as final in the negotiations. Nevertheless, prolonged conversations are an indicator of the problem in reaching an agreement. Over time, the risk of an unfavorable result will be higher for the United Kingdom, as the country will leave the EU on March 29 next year.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has tried to rally higher, but the bulls were too weak the break through the level of 1.2935 and now the price is testing the blue trend line support at the level of 1.2854. Any breakout lower will be considered bearish and the next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.2828 and 1.2798. Please notice the momentum indicator is pointing to the downside as the market is moving off the overbought zone.

analytics5b863700ce7fa.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for 29/08/2018

The Russian air carrier S7 Airlines has partnered with Gazprom Neft, the state's oil giant, to use smart contracts based on Blockchain technology for refueling aircraft. S7, which has developed several cases of Blockchain technology in the past two years, will now use this technology to increase the efficiency of payments and fuel deliveries, as well as refuel at airports. The partnership includes a dedicated subsidiary of Gazprom Neft dealing in the refueling of aviation fuel, Gazpromneft-Aero: "The use of Blockchain technology for settlements between aviation companies and fuel operators gives a new impulse to the development of the entire aviation industry "- commented the general director of Gazpromneft-Aero, Vladimir Egorov.

According to stakeholders, this move means the first application of Blockchain technology of this kind on the Russian market. Intelligent contracts will replace the current, more complex process involving prepayments, bank guarantees and related risks, explains Gazprom, which in turn will translate into shortening processing time and reducing labor costs: "After the completion of refueling, a reconciliation process takes place and settlement takes place. [...] Technology means that transparency in mutual settlements is improving, which means that we can abandon a number of manual operations and speed up processes "- S7 general director Pavel Voronin added.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has broken above the level of $7,000 and made a new local high at the level of $7,088. The price is still moving inside of the channel and the next target is seen at the level of $7,176. The nearest support is located at the level of $6,871 and $6,782. No divergence between the price and momentum has been seen yet.

analytics5b862fe9263a8.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of AUD/USD for August 29, 2018

AUD/USD has been quite volatile and indecisive recently at the edge of the 0.7310 area from where currently it is expected to push lower in the coming days. Despite AUD having better economic reports recently, it failed to maintain the momentum against USD which is expected to lead to further downward movement in the process.

So far, this week, AUD has been quite silent having no economic reports to impact the upcoming momentum in the pair, but tomorrow, AUD Private Capital Expenditure report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 0.6% from the previous value of 0.4% and Building Approvals is expected to decrease to -2.2% from the previous value of 6.4%.

On the USD side, today, USD Prelim GDP report is going to be published which is expected to have a slight decrease to 4.0% from the previous value of 4.1% and Pending Home Sales report is also expected to decrease to 0.3% from the previous value of 0.9%.

As of the current scenario, AUD has been forecasted to have mixed results while USD is expected to be quite dovish. Though USD is currently dominating the pair, certain volatility is expected until AUD reports are published tomorrow. If AUD performs poorly with the economic reports, USD is expected to extend its gains further despite the dovish economic reports.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently quite impulsive with the bearish pressure which is currently trying to break below the 0.7310 area with a daily close. Though the volatility and corrective phase are still active and a daily close below 0.7310 is expected to inject further impulsive momentum with target towards the 0.7200 and 0.7050 area in the coming days. As the price remains below 0.75 with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 0.7310, 0.7200, 0.7050

RESISTANCE: 0.7450, 0.7500

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

analytics5b8636c5079eb.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of USD/CAD for August 29, 2018

USD/CAD has been quite impulsive with the bearish gains recently which has lead the price to reside below the 1.2950 area with a daily close. Despite the mixed economic reports on both USD and CAD published recently, CAD has gained momentum as of better results in comparison.

While US is currently quite busy dealing with Mexico trade policies other than NAFTA, it has been performing quite poorly with the recently published economic reports which resulted to certain weakness on the USD side against CAD. Recently, Bank of Canada Governor Poloz has spoken about the deployment of digital technologies helping the economy to grow and having an optimistic view for the further development of the Canadian economy in the process. The positive outlook did help the CAD buyers to regain momentum and push the price against USD more precisely.

Ahead of CAD GDP report to be published tomorrow which is expected to decrease to 0.1% from the previous value of 0.5%, today CAD Current Account report is going to be published which is expected to increase to -15.3B from the previous figure of -19.5B.

On the other hand, today USD Prelim GDP report is going to be published which is expected to have a slight decrease to 4.0% from the previous value of 4.1% and Pending Home Sales report is also expected to decrease to 0.3% from the previous value of 0.9%.

As of the current scenario, both currencies of the pair are expecting dovish outcome of the upcoming economic reports which is expected to inject certain volatility in the market. Though the final decision of definite pressure can be only made after the upcoming economic reports are published where certain spikes may be observed in the process. Though there are certain chances of strong counter of USD but having CAD performing well till now which might also impact the upcoming reports, CAD is expected to lead the price again in the long-term against USD.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing below the 1.2950 area which was broken out with a daily close. The breakout was not quite as impulsive as expected to lead to further bearish momentum in the process for which certain bullish retracement is expected towards the 1.2950-1.3050 area before the price starts to push the price lower again in the coming days. As the price remains below 1.3050 with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue with target towards the 1.2750 area.

SUPPORT: 1.2750

RESISTANCE: 1.2950, 1.3050

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: IMPULSIVE

analytics5b86315a3fae1.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 29, 2018

analytics5b860f07b9a0c.png

EUR/NZD has retested important short-term resistance at 1.7484. The first test seems to have been rejected, which may lead to a corrective decline towards 1.7371 and maybe even closer to 1.7339 before a new test of this resistance should be expected again.

A break above short-term important resistance at 1.7484 will finally open up the upside for a rally towards 1.7821 and beyond.

R3: 1.7668

R2: 1.7578

R1: 1.7484

Pivot: 1.7435

S1: 1.7398

S2: 1.7371

S3: 1.7339

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.7330 with our stop placed at break-even.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, Aug 29, 2018

analytics5b861874a462c.jpg

When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released such as French Prelim GDP q/q, French Consumer Spending m/m, and German GfK Consumer Climate. The US will release the Economic Data too such as Crude Oil Inventories, Pending Home Sales m/m, Prelim GDP Price Index q/q, and Prelim GDP q/q, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1749. Strong Resistance:1.1742. Original Resistance: 1.1731. Inner Sell Area: 1.1720. Target Inner Area: 1.1692. Inner Buy Area: 1.1664. Original Support: 1.1653. Strong Support: 1.1642. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1635.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a highlevel of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors.The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefullyconsider your investment objectives, level of experience, and riskappetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of someor all of your initial investment and therefore you should not investmoney that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all therisks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice froman independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Intraday level for USD/JPY, Aug 29, 2018

analytics5b86180e67aad.jpg

In Asia, Japan will release the Consumer Confidence and the US will release some Economic Data such as Crude Oil Inventories, Pending Home Sales m/m, Prelim GDP Price Index q/q, and Prelim GDP q/q. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Resistance. 3: 111.77. Resistance. 2: 111.55. Resistance. 1: 111.33. Support. 1: 111.07. Support. 2: 110.85. Support. 3: 110.64.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a highlevel of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors.The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefullyconsider your investment objectives, level of experience, and riskappetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of someor all of your initial investment and therefore you should not investmoney that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all therisks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice froman independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 29, 2018

analytics5b860d54b37d5.png

The peak at 130.28 could be enough to fulfill the 130.38 target and set the stage for a corrective decline towards at least 128.78 and more likely closer to support in the 126.99 - 127.64 zone.

In the short-term, a break below minor support at 129.68 will indicate that wave i/ has peaked and a corrective decline in wave ii/ is developing. That said, we also need to accept the possibility for one last spike closer to the ideal 130.38 target as long as support at 129.68 holds firm.

R3: 131.15

R2: 130.70

R1: 130.38

Pivot: 129.68

S1: 129.21

S2: 128.78

S3: 128.42

Trading recommendation:

We will sell EUR at 130.25 or upon a break below 129.68

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for the US session of GBP / USD on August 28

To open long positions for GBP / USD pair, you need:

While the trade is above 1.2891, the demand for the pound will continue. The first target will be the resistance level of 1.2931 and the main task will be to update the maximum in the area of 1.2996, where fixing profits are recommended. In case of a pound drop in the afternoon, you can buy immediately at a rebound from 1.2838.

To open short positions for GBP / USD pair, you need:

The formation of a false breakout at 1.2931 will be a signal to sell the pound in order to return to the support level of 1.2891, which will lead to a larger decline with a minimum test of 1.2838 where fixing profits are recommended. If the pound is higher than 1.2931, you can sell for a rebound of 1.2996.

analytics5b85384ca2375.png

Description of indicators

  • MA (average sliding) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (average sliding) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. August 28. Trading system "Regression channels". Will Theresa May manage to tighten negotiations on Brexit?

4-hour timeframe

analytics5b84f1452d26d.png

Technical data:

Higher channel of linear regression: direction - down.

The lower channel of linear regression: direction - down.

Moving average (20; flattened) - sideways.

CCI: -18.5388

On August 27, the GBP/USD currency pair failed to overcome the moving average line. However, the traders could not resume the short-term ascending trend either. Price departed from the moving, but not far. Thus, bears can make a new attempt at any time to overcome the moving middle line. From the fundamental point of view, there is nothing to be noted for now. The only more or less significant event was the speech of French President Emmanuel Macron, who expressed the hope that an agreement between the EU and Great Britain will be signed before the end of the year. Also, Macron noted that the UK's exit from the EU is its decision, which should be respected. However, the Brexit procedure should in no case harm the European Union. As you can see, nothing super important was sounded, as the emphasis was once again laid on the fact that all negotiations on Brexit should be completed before the end of the year. Previously, it was reported that the British Prime Minister Theresa May could deliberately delay the negotiations in the hope of supporting Donald Trump, who had previously suggested that Britain to sue the EU. However, it seems that the European Union does not intend to make any concessions in the negotiations and wishes to complete them by the end of the year.

Nearest support levels:

S1 = 1.2817

S2 - 1.2695

S3 - 1.2573

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 = 1.2939

R2 = 1.3062

R3 = 1.3184

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD remains above the moving average line. However, the last closed bar is painted in blue, so a correction may now begin which is not recommended to execute. If the next bar turns purple, you can open new lines with the target of 1.2939.

Selling orders will become relevant with the target of 1.2695 if traders manage to overcome the moving and Murray level "1/8". In this case, the downtrend may resume and the initiative for the instrument will pass into the hands of the bears.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper channel of linear regression is the blue lines of unidirectional motion.

Lower channel linear - purple lines of unidirectional movement.

CCI - the blue line in the regression window of the indicator.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - the blue line on the price chart.

Murray Levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that color bars in blue or purple.

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Confidence in the short-term growth of the euro is gradually declining

The euro continues to rise against the U.S. dollar, which was formed in the middle of this month. It looks like investors are planning to end the month on a positive note, getting close to the large monthly resistance levels.

Data on lending in the eurozone and confidence in France supported the euro in the first half of the day, but a number of international economic agencies predict a slowdown in the euro in the short term.

For many technical indicators, risky assets are in the overbought zone, and a good downward correction has not been observed for a long time. Also, the EUR/USD pair got close to fairly large levels of resistance, from which a strong bearish trend was formed in the middle of summer of this year. This is another signal to the fact that there is no need to hurry with the purchase from the current levels.

As I noted above, bank lending in the euro area continued to grow in July this year.

According to the report of the European Central Bank, lending to non-financial companies increased by 4.1% compared to the same period last year. Good indicators were also noted in household lending, which in July 2018 increased by 3.0%, as in the previous month.

As for the M3 money supply indicator, it turned out to be slightly worse than forecasts. According to the data, the annual growth of M3 monetary aggregate slowed to 4.0% from 4.5% in June. Economists had expected the indicator to grow by 4.3 percent.

Good data on consumer morale in France maintained confidence in further economic growth. According to the report of the statistics agency, the consumer confidence index in France in August this year remained at 97 points against 97 in July. Economists had also forecast the index to be 97 points.

An important report on consumer confidence in the US will be published on Tuesday in the afternoon, which can significantly affect the US dollar. It is expected that the indicator of consumer confidence in the US will decrease to 126.6 points in August against 127.4 points in July this year.

analytics5b853e1fccf7a.png

As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, the prospects for the movement of the euro remained unchanged. The failure of breaking the resistance of 1.1700 for today could lead to the decline of the European currency against the background of profit taking and return to the area of the lows of 1.1625 and 1.1590.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: the task of the bulls to gain a foothold above 1.1750

The American currency, as if fulfilling the wishes of Donald Trump, is cheaper throughout the market. The dollar index fell to four-week lows, and the overall fundamental picture continues to change before our eyes.The last steps of the President of the United States has reduced the intensity of stress in the world, although it is still far from full discharge. And yet Trump is gradually showing contractual capacity, demonstrating the talent of a big entrepreneur rather than a politician. Before concluding a deal, he exhausts the opponent for a long time, constantly raising stakes, using available leverage – and only then invites them to the negotiating table. We can not say that this tactic is a losing one: in the last few months, the US president was able to negotiate with the European Union and Mexico, concluding in the first case, a preliminary deal, and in the second – a full-fledged one. And here it is worth recalling that these agreements were preceded by months of negotiations, and with the European Union, the US almost started a large-scale trade war.

During the period of global tension, the dollar felt quite confident, having significantly strengthened against a basket of major currencies. Traders saw the U.S. currency as a "safe haven", thereby provoking the rally of the greenback. Now the situation is changing, and on almost all fronts.

First of all we are talking about trade relations between the U.S., Mexico and Canada. The protracted negotiations, which dragged on for more than a year, can be completed this week – if Washington manages to convince Canadians to join the renewed deal. US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin admitted the possibility that a trilateral agreement will be concluded before the end of this week. For the sake of the negotiation process, the Canadian foreign minister even canceled her official visits to France and Ukraine.

For the markets in this case, the precedent itself is important: after all, until recently Trump was ready to break the deal, withdraw from NAFTA and impose new duties on tariffs of automotive products from Canada. Now there is a real chance to restore stable trade relations. This situation is considered by many experts as the first serious step towards a global "thaw", referring to a possible trade truce between the United States and China. Moreover, the parties are trying to find common ground, although, to no avail.

And yet even the US-China conflict is not hopeless: according to some experts, now there is a "big diplomatic game", the bulk of which is conducted in a non-public sphere. Thus, the first round of negotiations ended with nothing – on the one hand, the negotiators did not declare any agreements, but, on the other hand, the opponents did not "slam the door", but tactfully and peacefully commented on the results of the meeting and promised to continue the dialogue. Trump, in turn, said that the Chinese "want to talk", however, in his opinion, now they have "absolutely nothing to talk about."

analytics5b8570d878fc2.jpg

However, according to some analysts, the situation is actually quite the opposite – it is the Chinese who do not force events with a truce with an eye to the upcoming Congressional elections (November 6). Supporters of this version believe that Beijing will weigh all the "pros and cons" based on the results of the American plebiscite: if the Republican party loses control over the Congress (now they have a majority in both houses), the behavior of the US President may change. It is worth noting that in November, Americans will re-elect all congressmen and a third of senators, so the political configuration in the country can change significantly. Given this fact, we should not expect any sensational deals between the US and China until the end of autumn: now the parties are conducting reconnaissance negotiations, preparing the ground for a possible agreement.

In my opinion, the market is well aware that there will be no quick resolution of the US-China conflict. But the very fact that the parties are willing to negotiate and seek a compromise increases the demand for risky assets. The dollar in this case was the loser, especially after the critical comments of Trump to the Fed against the background of cautious rhetoric of the head of US central bank Jerome Powell.

The European currency, in turn, continues to show character. The Turkish crisis, which "choked" the growth of the euro, went into the background: the fall of the Lira slowed after Qatar sent 15 billion dollars of direct investment to the Turkish economy. In addition, today it was reported that Germany is also ready to provide financial assistance to Ankara so that the Turkish crisis does not destabilize the situation in the EU. Such a news flow supports the euro, especially against the backdrop of rising inflation in the eurozone and falling unemployment.

analytics5b8570c5a471f.jpg

Thus, the current fundamental picture allows the euro/dollar pair to test a fairly strong resistance level in the near future -1.1750. At this price point, the upper limit of the Kumo cloud on the daily chart coincides with the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator. In addition, this mark corresponds to the average line of Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart. If the price is fixed above this target, the bulls of the pair will be opened the way to the level of 1.1890 (Kijun-sen line on W1). However, this requires a powerful news driver that will allow the pair to overcome the barrier impetuously and gain a foothold in a new price niche.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The US and Mexico reached a trade agreement and are waiting for Canada

After a more detailed study of the Fed Chairman's speech last Friday, investors concluded that the committee will not rush to the next interest rate hikes in the US and it's time to return to risky assets that are of more interest now than the conservative dollar. This state of affairs is reflected in the yesterday's growth of the European currency and the British pound.

Good data on the mood in business circles in Germany also supported the euro.

According to the report of the Ifo Institute, the German business sentiment index in August 2018 increased immediately to 103.8 points from 101.7 points in July. Economists predicted the growth of the indicator only to 101.9 points. As noted in Ifo, Germany's economy continues to maintain strong growth, and easing tensions between the US and Europe has led to improved business sentiment.

analytics5b84ffc1408a7.png

Data on the national activity index in the US exerted even more pressure on the US dollar.

According to the report of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, the index of national activity in July 2018 decreased and amounted to 0.13 points against 0.48 points in June. The fall in the index was directly related to the decline in production. The moving average of the national index for three months in July fell to 0.05 points against 0.20 points in June.

Last night, there were news that the US and Mexico had reached a bilateral agreement on NAFTA. According to the White House, a new agreement between the United States and Mexico will come into force within 90 days.

It will be important to know whether Canada will want to join this trade agreement.

As US President Donald Trump noted, the talks with Canada will soon resume, and in case of Canada's refusal to join the trade agreement between the United States and Mexico, a separate agreement is possible.

Immediately after Trump, the chairman of the Economic Advisers Committee of the White House, Kudlow, said that the United States could impose duties on cars from Canada unless a trade agreement was reached, and the Canadian authorities should cooperate on a trade agreement.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, technical correction in the pair has been brewing for a long time, as indicated by a number of indicators forming a fairly large divergence. Failure to break through resistance 1.1700 could lead to a fall in the European currency against the backdrop of profit taking and a return to the 1.1625 and 1.1590 lows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trump won an important victory in the trade wars over Mexico

Trump won an important victory in the trade wars over Mexico.

On Monday, world media reported: the United States and Mexico reached an agreement to amend the North American Trade Agreement (NAFTA) - in favor of the United States. Thus, Trump won an important victory in trade wars. Now Canada has a very difficult position: either Canada will go to an agreement with the US, making concessions, or Canada will risk getting a significant deterioration in access to the huge US market.

For Trump, victory over Mexico is a major win in the domestic political game. Everyone knows that Trump is hanging a sword of Damocles about the possible links between his campaign headquarters (Manafort) and Russia - with the possible involvement of Trump in the kidnapping of information from the servers of the Democratic Party - and this is a real possibility of impeachment. The investigation has made a number of successes recently, and the possibility of introducing the issue of impeachment to Congress does not have a zero chance.

For the future of Trump, it is critically important that Republicans win the midterm elections to Congress in November this year - and in case of a win there is a real chance for Trump's second term.

In the US economy in recent months, everything is fine - growth results of the second quarter of added 4.1%, unemployment is below 4%, in some industries (mining, construction) have a real boom. Experts believe that Trump's tax cuts played a role here. Stock market: the S & P500 index overcame the highs of the year and reached new historical levels.

With this situation in the US economy, Trump has a good chance of winning his party in November. And for a second term, we have a new economic crisis in the United States and the global economic crisis that could well begin before the presidential elections in 2020 can prevent it.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / GBP pair overview on simplified wave analysis for the week of August 28

The wave pattern of the H4 graph:

The dominant trend of cross-border prices, since April 17, is directed upward towards the global trend.

The wave pattern of the H1 graph:

Since June 15, the ascending section formed the final part of the wave zigzag in a higher timeframe. The price has reached the boundaries of the potential reversal zone.

analytics5b84fc2c18a78.jpg

The wave pattern of the M15 chart:

Since August 9, the bearish wave is developing. Its shape took the wrong form, with an elongation in the direction of the current trend. In the coming days, the pair's exchange rate is expected to change.

analytics5b84fc380522e.jpg

Recommended trading strategy:

Conditions for long-term investments in the instrument are not yet established. At the smallest TFs, it is possible to play a lowering rate, but the degree of risk is high.

analytics5b84fc44a2b14.jpg

Resistance zones:

- 0.9050 / 0.9100

Support zones:

- 0.8960 / 0.8910

Explanations to the figures:

A simplified wave analysis uses a simple waveform, in the form of a 3-part zigzag (ABC). The last incomplete wave for every timeframe is analyzed. Zones show the calculated areas with the greatest probability of a turn.

Arrows indicate the counting of the wave. The solid background shows the generated structure and the dotted.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of the tool movements in time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need to confirm the signals used by your trading systems.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 28/08/2018

Yields of the Italian 10-year Treasury bonds have now reached today's August highs at 3.207% and the Milan Stock Exchange is losing 0.8%, leaving behind slightly higher DAX or CAC40. The gloomy climate over Italian assets is justified by information from the government. Deputy Prime Minister Luigi Di Maio in a recent interview for Il Fatto Quotidiano said that the country could exceed the threshold of the budget deficit of 3.0% GDP in 2019 if planned investments and reforms aimed at strengthening the recovery will require it.

This is a clear violation of EU rules that speak about compliance with the 3.0% threshold for the deficit and 60% for public debt. The ruling coalition is to present a plan for the next year's budget at a parliamentary meeting on 27 September. A higher deficit will force the EU to issue a warning, and in the worst case scenario, it may impose financial penalties on Italy.

Italy also remains in dispute with the EU regarding immigrants. Di Maio repeated her comments that Italy is against the approval of the seven-year EU financing plan, with which Brussels wants to make it before the elections to the European Parliament. A condition for Italy is changing in the immigration situation, as Rome demands that other member states share the burden related to refugees landing on the Italian coast. If nothing changes, Italy will veto the talks on the budget.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is trading just below the technical resistance at the level of 1.1747, but the bulls will need more momentum to break through this level. Nevertheless, the nearest support is seen at the level of 1.1663 and 1.1652. Please notice the growing bearish divergence between the price and the momentum oscillator.

analytics5b856ed4edfe0.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 28/08/2018

The NAFTA trade agreement between the US and Mexico gives rise to mixed feelings for CAD, but USD / CAD is still lower. Mexico wants to join Canada and continue NAFTA, but President Trump is sniffling, so the market is waiting for discounting this news. Despite this, the weakness of USD helped in the violation of the upward trend line pulled from February and the average 100-session. Fundamentally, the president of BoC Poloz during a speech in Jackson Hole over the weekend did not give grounds to bet interest rate hike in September and October remains a more realistic date. It looks like even an impressive GDP reading on Thursday could change the market expectations, but it may be enough to pull the USD / CAD lower.

Let's now take a look at the USD/CAD technical picture at the H4 time frame. From a technical point of view, the road is open to 1.28, where the bottom band of the short-term channel and the end of May lows meet. From the side of potential impulses, the tripartite trade agreement would remove the uncertainty factor and strengthen CAD. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 1.28 and the nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3000.

analytics5b856e7c83c9c.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com