Gold analysis for February 09, 2015

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Overview :


Since our last analysis gold has been trading downwards. The price has tested the level of 1,228.10 in a volume abvove the average. According to the H1 time frame, we can observe selling climax in the background and weak supply around the price of 1,228.00, which is a sign that selling gold at this stage looks risky. According to the daily time frame, we got supply in a volume above the average. Major resistance level is around the price of 1,307.00 (swing high like resistance) and intraday resistance is around the price of 1,252.00. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities on the lows (buy on the dips).


Daily Fibonacci pivot points :


Resistance levels :


R1: 1,238.92


R2: 1,239.98


R3: 1,241.70


Support levels :


S1: 1,235.48


S2: 1,234.42


S3: 1,232.70


Trading recommendations: Watch for potential buying opportunities after retracement (buy on the dips).


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EUR/NZD analysis for February 09, 2015

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Overview:


In our last analysis EUR/NZD was trading downwards. As we expected, the price has tested the level of 1.5213 in a volume below the average. Since our Fibnocci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1.5420 is broken, we may expext testing of the level of 1.5180. Be careful when selling EUR/NZD at this stage since we may expect reaction from buyers. Anyway, if the price breaks the level of 1.5180, we may see a possible testing of the level of 1.5060. According to the 4H time frame, we can observe lack of demand around the price of 1.5524, which is a sign that buying look risky.


Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.5480


R2: 1.5522


R3: 1.5590


Support levels:


S1: 1.5344


S2: 1.5302


S3: 1.5234


Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling at this stage and watch for potential buying opportunities after retracement (buy on the dips).




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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for February 09, 2015


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The GBP/CHF pair has finally hit its expected extension at the levels of 1.4100 and pushed even higher through 1.4184 before pulling back. It is recommended to fix full profits on long positions taken earlier. Also note that the pair has hit Fibonacci 0.618 resistance level at 1.4184 and high probability remains for a potential reversal from here. Immediate resistance is seen at the levels of 1.4180 (interim) followed by 1.4800 and higher while support is seen at 1.4000 followed by 1.4850, 1.3600 and lower, respectively. Bears are expected to remain in control from here on (untill the prices remain below 1.4200).


Trading recommendations:


Fix full profits on all long positions and remain flat for now.


Good luck!




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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for February 09, 2015


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The EUR/JPY pair broke above its trading range towards the levels of 135.00 before pulling back into the 134.00 handle again. It is recommended to remain long for now with risk at 132.50. Please also note that the pair has broken higher into the buy zone of immediate trend line resistance and probability for a push above 135.00 could see the levels of 137.60/138.00 soon. Immediate support is seen at 132.50/60 followed by 132.20 and lower while resistance is seen at 135.00 (interim) followed by 137.60/138.00 and higher, respectively. Bulls are expected to remain in control untill prices stay above 132.50 from here on.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long. Stop is at 132.50; target, at 138.00.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for Febuary 9, 2015

General overview for 09/02/2015 10:50 CET


The corrective cycle in the wave 4 looks more complex than a simple corrective cycle but the overall bias still remains bearish. To continue to the downside, the price must break out of the golden corrective trend channel and violate the level of 132.32 in impulsive way. Otherwise, the corrective cycle might still continue to extend higher towards the level of 137.64. However, this move is possible only if the intraday resistance at the level of 135.36 is broken.


Support/Resistance:


136.74 - Key Resistance


137.27 - WR2


136.15 - WR1


135.36 - Intraday Resistance


134.22 - Weekly Pivot


134.03 - Intrday Support


133.11 - WS1


132.32 - Key Level To The Downside


Trading recommendations:


Daytraders should consider opening sell orders from the current price levels with SL above the level of 135.36 and open TP level for now.


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for Febuary 9, 2015

General overview for 09/02/2015 10:20 CET


The corrective cycle in the wave X brown might continue here as the shape of this cycle starts to look like a triangle pattern. To complete this pattern, the market must make two more sub-waves and then the downside breakout is expected. On the other hand, the key level to the upside is the intraday resistance at the level of 1.2593 that has been tested twice already. Any breakout higher above this level might mean the corrective cycle will be more complex and time consuming.


Support/Resistance:


1.2797 - Swing High


1.2732 - WR1


1.2593 - Intraday Resistance|Key Level|


1.2543 - Weekly Pivot


1.2350 - Intraday Support|Key Level|


1.2314 - WS1


1.2122 - WS2


Trading recommendations:


Daytraders should consider opening sell orders from the current price levels with SL above the level of 1.2593 and open TP level for now.


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#USDX technical analysis for February 9, 2015

The Dollar index made an impressive upward reversal on Friday; and now it is back testing this breakout. The price has broken the short-term resistance area and has given a buy signal that could target 100 over the coming weeks as long as we hold above the last weeks lows.


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Green line = resistance


The Dollar index, as shown on the 4-hour chart, has given a buy signal on Friday by breaking above the Ichimoku cloud and above the green trend line resistance. The downward move from 95.50 is overlapping and thus corrective. The reversal that stopped the sequence of lower lows and lower highs implies that trend is changing to neutral and if we see higher highs and higher lows we will confirm bullish trend change.


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The weekly chart remains fully bullish as the price continues to trade above the important support by the tenkan-sen (purple line) at 91.55 and the long-tailed weekly candle suggest increased buying interest. I expect the Dollar index to continue higher towards 100 over the coming weeks. Important support is the last weeks lows. Breaking below will increase selling pressures towards 91.50.




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Gold technical analysis for February 9, 2015

Gold price made a break down on Friday by breaking below important short-term support and pushed below $1,230. Today we observe a bounce around the $1,240 area, but there is a bearish flag pattern being formed. Gold price could still fall lower towards $1,220 where the 61.8% retracement is found.


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Green lines = bearish flag pattern


Gold price is forming a bearish flag in the short term. Confirmation of this pattern will come with a break below $1,233 and with $1,200 as a possible target. Breaking above $1,245-46 will cancel this bearish formation but not the overall bearish picture.


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Gold price has broken through the 38% retracement last week and the bearish reversal is pushing prices lower towards the 61.8% retracement. Important daily support below $1,220 is the level of $1,190 where the Ichimoku cloud is found. Trend is bearish for short term as long as the price is below $1,265-70.


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Technical analysis of Silver for February 09, 2015.


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Silver has finally dropped to $16.50/60 levels on Friday, and is seen bouncing off higher now. Please note that the metal remains supported by the rising trend line for now around $16.75/80 levels. Furthermore, the fibonacci 0.618 support is also passing through the same region, as depicted here. A bullish bounce here, would be extremely encouraging to initiate fresh long positions. It is therefore recommended to remain long from earlier positions and also look to initiate further positions now. Immediate support is seen at $16.50/60 levels (interim), followed by $16.20, $15.50 while resistance is seen at $17.50/60, followed by $18.40 and higher respectively.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long and also add further long positions here, stop at $16.00, the target is $18.90 and $21.00.


Good luck!




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Technical analysis of Gold for February 09, 2015


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Gold had broken below $1,250.00 levels on Friday taking immediate stops out at $1,245.00. As seen here, the metal remains very well supported around the $1,220.00/30.00 levels. Also note that the metal is stalling at past resistance turned support region and a fibonacci confluence as depicted here. It is recommended to still initiate long positions here, with risk below $1,200.00 mark. Looking into the larger picture, Gold should be heading towards $1,400.00/10.00 levels in the coming sessions, provided prices remain above $1,170.00 levels. Immediate support is seen at $1,220.00 levels while resistance is seen at $1,307.00 (interim).


Trading recommendations:


Initiate long positions now ($1,238.00/39.00), stop at $1,190.00, the target is $1,400.00.


Good luck!




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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for February 9 - 2015

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Technical summary:


The break below 1.5343 calls for an extension of wave (iv) lower towards 1.5244 before the correction is over. Wave (iii) higher towards 1.6918 can be expected. Short minor resistance at 1.5415 ideally will protect the upside for a break below 1.5309 confirming the test of the 61.8% corrective target at 1.5244. Only a direct break above resistance at 1.5490 will indicate that wave (iv) already is over and wave (iii) higher is developing.


Trading recommendation:


We will buy EUR at 1.5255 with a stop at 1.5155 or upon a break above resistance at 1.5390.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for February 9 - 2015

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Technical summary:


The big question is, whether wave (iv) ended at 135.36 or a more complex correction is unfolding? As long as the high at 135.36 protects the upside, we will give bears the benefit of the doubt and look for a break below support at 134.00 and more importantly a break below support at 132.52 confirming the impulsive decline towards 125.98 to end wave C of the expanded flat correction. That said, the risk of course is a break above 135.36, that will call for a more complex correction in wave (iv) towards 137.64 before wave (iv) finally is over and wave (v) lower will be seen.


Trading recommendation:


We will sell EUR upon a break below 134.00, with stop placed at 135.40.


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Technical analysis and trading recommendations on Gold for February 09, 2015

The stronger US data pushed the yellow to a 2-week low. As per the BLS, total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 257,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was little changed to 5.7%. The improving growth prospects have lifted the US economy expectations. The Fed can raise the interest-rates from the zero levels. In the previous week, we recommended selling below $1,266.00, finally below $1,249.50 with the targets at $1,239.00 and $1,220.00. At Friday's session, the metal took support from 50Dsma and managed to closed above it. Today, the metal opened on a bullish note which is the open low strategy. We recommend fresh buying above $1,240.00 with the targets at $1,246.00 and $1,250.00. The metal favours selling on a rise, until the prices close below $1,266.00. We recommend fresh selling below $1,228.00 with the targets at $1,225.00, $1,220.00, and $1,217.00 or 100Dsma. When a daily close is below $1,217.00, bears can challenge $1,207.00, $1,204.00, and 1199.00. The weekly key support level exists at $1,216.00.


Resistance: $1,239.00, $1,246.00, $1,250.00.


Support: $1,228.00, $1,216.50, $1,199.00.


Selling below: $1,228.00, panic will be below $1,216.00.


Buying above $1,240.00, strong momentum will be above $1,265.00.


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Forecast and trading recommendations on GBP/USD for February 09, 2015

The stronger US dollar once again pushed the cable 100 pips backward in the previous day. This week, the UK's major economic data is due on Thursday. The inflation data and BOE Governor's speech will be released. On the same day, the US economic data core retail sales, retail sales, and unemployment claims are due. From the lows, the pair managed to gain 400 pips. In the previous week, the cable gained 150 pips on a weekly closing basis. The weekly resistance exists at 1.5375 levels or 50Dsma. In case, if the pair closes above 50sma, the short-term trend turns to positive. Then, bulls can challenge 1.5480, 1.5585, 20Wsma, and 1.5620. On the daily chart, the prices gave an upside breakout, considering the descending trend line and prices close above 20Dsma. The UK PMI data made the Pound bullish. During the previous week, we recommended buying above 1.5225 with the targets at 1.5265, 1.5320, and 1.5400. The cable made a high at 1.5352.


The cable has support at 1.5180 and 1.5140. Until the prices close above 1.5139 on a daily closing basis, the trading pattern is framed between 1.5380 and 1.5139. In case if the pair closes below 1.5139, bears can challenge 1.4990. The intraday support levels exists at 1.5160. On the h1 chart, the prices are closed and trading below the hourly moving averages. Bulls can regain strength above 1.5300. We recommend fresh selling below 1.5160 with the targets at 1.5140, 1.5125, and 1.5100. The panic will be triggered below 1.5100. On the monthly chart, the previous supports exist between 1.4830 and 1.4800.


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Selling below 1.5160.


Buying above 1.5260.


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Daily analysis of major pairs for February 9, 2015

EUR/USD: The effort of bulls in this market has invariably been rendered useless by bears. The resistance line at 1.1500 was challenged but it was not overcome. Bears are currently trying to push the price southward; which may enable the price to reach the support line at 1.1300 - an important level in its own right. Only a break above the resistance line at 1.1500 could render the bearish outlook invalid.


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USD/CHF: The EUR/USD pair is weak. Therefore, it is expected that the USD/CHF would be strong. The outlook for the latter is bullish and the outlook for the former is bearish. As said in earlier forecasts, this market would continue its slow and gradual upward movement this week, though occasional, but short-term bearish corrections are not ruled out.


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GBP/USD: The bias on the Cable has become bullish in the near term. The market moved upwards by 350 pips last week, from the accumulation territory at 1.5000, which has become a formidable barrier to the bears’ machinations. The distribution territory at 1.5350 was tested last week and it could be tested again.


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USD/JPY: This popular market trended upwards significantly on Friday. Prior to this day, the market was consolidating between the demand level at 117.00 and the supply level at 119.00. A break above the supply level at 119.00 shows a new lease of the bullish bias.


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EUR/JPY: On Friday, February 6, 2015, this currency trading instrument closed at 134.81, on a bullish note. The outlook for most JPY pairs is bullish, and this instrument could be going upwards this week. A close above the supply zone at 136.00 would result in an unambiguous Bullish Confirmation Pattern.


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Forecast and trading recommendations on EUR/USD for February 09, 2015

The Greek actions weighing the Euro heavily. The pair erased most of its gains in the previous week. A lot of pressure is coming from Greece to make a deal with its international creditors. The Euro outlook is still determined by Greece. The Greek Prime Minister in his Sunday speech laid out plans of an international bailout. Greek banks were pushed to ELA facility. In case if Greece exits from the eurozone, the currency will dismantle, leading to the collapse. On the other hand, we can observe divergent policies between the FED and ECB. These factors can prove the fundamental weakness in the Euro.


Technically, the pair was rejected at 2Dsma for 4-days. At the early Asian session, the pair held the previous week's low and was trading at 1.1315 levels. On the hourly chart, the prices are trading and closed below the moving averages. The prices are making lower lows and lower highs on the h4 chart. The weekly resistance exists between 1.1450 and 1.1546. Until the pair closes above 20Dsma, in every rise bears try to drag the pair to make new lows. Until the pair closes above it, the weekly trading pattern is framed between 1.1098 and 1.1560. As of now, the monthly resistance exists at 1.2000 or 50Dsma and support exists at 1.0762. The short-term trend will chance only if the price closes above it. The pair has intraday minor support at 1.1290 and 1.1260. We recommend risky selling below 1.1290 and safe selling below 1.1260 with the targets at 1.1225 and 1.1190. Until the pair trades and close below 1.1420, use every rise to sell. Here is the recommendation for this week. In case if the pair breaks and closes below 1.1098, bears can challenge another 300 odd pips on the down side.


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Resistance: 1.1325; 1.1390; and 1.1420.


Support: 1.1290; 1.1220; and 1.1098.




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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for February 09, 2015

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When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as German Trade Balance. The US will release the economic data too such as the Labor Market Conditions Index m/m and Sentix Investor Confidence. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.


TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1370.

Strong Resistance:1.1363.

Original Resistance: 1.1352.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1341.

Target Inner Area: 1.1314.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1287.

Original Support: 1.1276.

Strong Support: 1.1265.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1258.





Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for February 09, 2015

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In Asia, Japan will release the Economy Watchers Sentiment, Consumer Confidence, Bank Lending y/y, and Current Account. The US will also release some economic data such as Labor Market Conditions Index m/m and Sentix Investor Confidence. So, there is a big probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during the day.


TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 119.41.

Resistance. 2: 119.19.

Resistance. 1: 118.95.

Support. 1: 118.66.

Support. 2: 118.42.

Support. 3: 118.19.





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Daily analysis of USDX for February 09, 2015

The USDX recovered above the support level of 94.18 and still remains alive on the higher high pattern's formation. The resistance level of 95.45 continues to be the nearest target on the upside road. Also, the USDX could make a breakout on that area in order to rise until the next resistance level of 96.78, as we can see it on the daily chart.


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The intraday outlook for this instrument is very bullish, as the USDX did a strong rebound close to the level of 93.35, which was below the 200 SMA. Now, the USDX could start to form a higher high pattern below the resistance level of 94.87. If the USDX makes a breakout at that level, bulls could still hold the upper hand to the resistance level of 95.16.


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Daily chart's resistance levels: 95.45 / 96.78


Dailychart's support levels: 94.18 / 93.02


H1 chart's resistance levels: 94.87 / 95.16


H1 chart's support levels: 94.38 / 93.94




Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 94.87, take profit is at 95.16, and stop loss is at 94.58.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for February 09, 2015

The GBP/USD pair continues to strengthen the bullish bias above the support level of 1.5247, because the pair has a very clear target at the area of 1.5491. In the first hours of Monday's session, the GBP/USD pair is expected to move in favor of the bullish trend, but with the formation of a higher high pattern. The MACD indicator on the daily chart is still on the positive territory.


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On the H1 chart, the GBP/USD pair found resistance next to the 1.5350 level. On that area, the pair did a pullback towards the support level of 1.5210, where the GBP/USD pair performed a little rebound that could be a bearish pattern in the short term. Anyway, the pair could resume the bullish bias in the coming area, because the 200 SMA could serve as dynamic support.


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Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5491 / 1.5637


Dailychart's support levels: 1.5247 / 1.5025


H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5249 / 1.5302


H1 chart's support levels: 1.5210 / 1.5166




Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place long (buy) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.5249, take profit is at 1.5302, and stop loss is at 1.5196.


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Weekly technical levels for EUR/USD for February 9-13, 2015

The weekly technical levels for EUR/USD pair:



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Overview



  • In all probability, the price of EUR/USD pair is going to move between the levels of 1.1380 and 1.1225. As a result, the range of the EUR/USD pair will be around 155 pips. The resistance has set at the level of 1.1378 this week because it is representing the weekly pivot point. Equally important, support has set at 1.1226 being the weekly support level. So, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below 1.1380, because the level of 1.1380 was forming a support last week and turned to strong resistance today. Therefore, it will be a good sign to sell below the price of 1.1380 with the first target of 1.1292 in order to test the bottom on H1 chart. Furthermore, if the trend manages to close below the 1.1292 level, then the market will be developing in a downtrend below the double bottom towards the level of 1.1226 on February 9, 2015.


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Weekly technical levels for GBP/USD for February 9-13, 2015

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Trading recommendations :



  • The GBP/USD pair on February 9, 2015. The resistance is going to set at the level of 1.5402, but a double top is placed at the point of 1.5351. Consequently, the descending movement will probably be lower than the 1.5351/1.5402 level with the targets at 1.5195 in order to try breaking the weekly pivot point. The pair will continue movement towards the levels of 1.5130 - 1.5070. On the contrary, the support has already set at 1.7070. Furthermore, it should be noted that it will rather profitable to buy above this level to retest this level in the long period. Therefore, buy deals are recommended above the 1.5070 level with targets at 1.5277 and 1.5351 to reach the double top.


The weekly technical levels for GBP/USD pair
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Pivot point formula:



  • Pivot point = (high (previous) + low (previous) + close (previous)) / 3


General idea about the pivot point.



  • Resistance 3 and support 3 are considered to be clear indicators of the maximum range of extreme volatility, though it is possible to pass them through.

  • Pivot lines work well in the sideways markets, as the prices are most likely to be located between the resistance 1 and support 1 lines.

  • Within a strong trend, the price is expected to be lower than the pivot point line and continue moving.

  • If the breaking news released may affect the market, the price is likely to go straight through resistance 1 or support 1 and even reach resistance 2 and resistance 3 or support 2 and support 3.

  • If the trend breaks resistance or support through, it is likely to result in a significant price movement, it is also referred to as breakout.



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