Global macro overview for 03/11/2017

The official changing of the guard will not occur until Chair Yellen's term expires on February 3, 2018. Market participants, expect Powell to continue along the scheduled path of balance sheet reductions as his term as Fed chair is likely to represent a continuation of Chair Yellen's monetary policies. Against the backdrop of cycle-low unemployment and modest economic growth, the new Fed chairman should be able to continue to gradually raise interest rates from historic lows.

In conclusion, Powell's nomination does not change the market participants outlook for monetary policy at this time. Given the strong economy and jobs market, inflation pressures gradually building and Fed officials broadening out the reasons behind hiking – such as financial conditions, asset valuations, and financial stability issues – the market participants are still sticking to the view of a December 2017 rate hike. This scenario is more than 90% priced in by financial markets. There are generally only two main risks that could change this view: potential for an economically damaging government shutdown and the absence of the agreement to raise the debt ceiling.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 timeframe ahead of the NFP Payrolls data release. The market is still trading in a narrow zone between the levels of 112.94 - 114.47. The trading conditions are overbought, but the momentum indicator is still above its fifty level. Better than expected data will likely make the USD/JPY surge to the new highs, but the rally might be short-lived as there is a bearish divergence between the price and momentum oscillator developing on a higher time frame.

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Global macro overview for 03/11/2017

The PMI index for the UK services sector was at 55.6 points, thus recording the strongest move for more than six months. Market participants were expecting further drops in the index, which was to be 53.3 points against 53.6 points previously. A significant factor in today's estimates is the increased business activity of entities based in the UK.

Yesterday, the Bank of England hiked the interest rate from 0.25% to 0.50%, as expected, with the vote count 7-2 (Sir David Ramsden and Sir Jon Cunliffe dissented) in line with expectations, but against the consensus view of a 6-3 vote count. Bank of England did not comment on current market pricing (two hikes over three years, this is also what the BoE's projections are based on), meaning the BoE keeps its flexibility. Moreover, the BoE said it will "monitor closely" the incoming data "including the impact of today's increase in Bank Rate". During the press conference, BoE Governor Mark Carney said the rate hike is just a "small adjustment" and that the BoE has "stretched the horizon of which CPI inflation should return to 2.0% target due to unusual circumstances" (possibly he meant Brexit). Still, Carney noted that inflation is expected to remain slightly above 2.0% even assuming the two hikes over three years currently priced in the market.

In conclusion, it was a "dovish hike" and overall a natural signal to the markets from BoE. The question remains, whether BoE will be ready to hike the rates again as it will stay on hold next year and not hike again before 2019, so this is more about taking back the emergency cut from August 2016 just after the Brexit vote.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. After the BoE interest rate decision, the market plummed towards the technical support at the level of 1.3067 and made a low at the level of 1.3040, just above the technical support at 1.3030. The price is still locked in a narrow horizontal zone and all of the attempts to break out of the zone were fake so far.

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Bitcoin analysis for November 03, 2017

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $7.470. A bill has been submitted to the Ukrainian parliament to amend the country's tax code to exempt cryptocurrency income and profits from taxation, including from buying, selling, transacting, and mining. Technical picture looks bearish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 1H time frame, I found double doji candles at the price of $7.403 (pivot resistance 1), which is a sign that buyers lost power and that Bitcoin may start downward corection. There is also a hidden bearish divergence on the RSI oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $6.979 (pivot level) and at the price of $6.618 (pivot support 1).

Support/Resistance

$7.470 – Intraday resistance (price action)

$6.979 – Pivot level

$6.618 – Pivot support 1

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USD/JPY analysis for November 03, 2017

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Recently, the USD/JPY has been trading sideways at the price of 114.10. According to the 15M time - frame, I found that price is trading above the pivot level 113.95), which is a sign that buyers are in control today. I also found intraday inverted head and shoulders formation, which is a sign that selling looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upwards targets are set at the price of 114.35 (pivot resistance 1), 114.60 (pivot resistance 2) and at the price of 115.00 (pivot resistance 3).

Resistance levels:

R1: 114.35

R2: 114.61

R3: 115.00

Support levels:

S1: 113.67

S2: 113.26

S3: 113.00

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Analysis of Gold for November 03, 2017

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Recently, the Gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1,274.00. According to the 15M time - frame, I found that price is trading below the pivot level ($1,277.55), which is a sign that sellers are in control today. I also found hidden bearish divergence on the MACD oscillator in the background, which is a sign that buying looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $1,267.25 (pivot support 1) and at the price of $1,261.00 (pivot support 3).

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,282.25

R2: $1,288.61

R3: $1.293.05

Support levels:

S1: $1,271.48

S2: $1,267.25

S3: $1,261.00

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for November 03, 2017

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Overview:

  • The Swissy franc broke the resistance at the price of 0.9998 which acts as support now this week.The pair has already formed major support at 0.9942. The strong support is seen at the level of 0.9898. And the minor support is seen at 0.9998 now. On the H1 chart, the RSI and the moving average (100) are still pointing to the upside. Therefore, the market indicates a bullish opportunity at the level of 0.9942. Buy above the minor support of 0.9942 with targets at the levels of 1.0050 and 1.0100. Also, it should be noted that if the trend is buoyant, then the strength in this currency pair will be defined as follows: USD is in an uptrend and CHF is in a downtrend. On the other hand, if the pair closes below the minor support (0.9942), the price will fall into the bearish market in order to go further towards the strong support at 0.9898. Briefly, the minor support is seen at the level of 0.9942. It will be profitable to buy above the spot of 0.9940 with the targets of 0.9998, 1.0050 and 1.0100. On the other hand, the stop loss should be placed at the 0.9900 level on the H1 chart. We are still looking for a strong bullish market in coming two days.
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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for November 3, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allowed a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where recent evidence of bearish rejection was expressed (Note the previous Monthly candlestick of September).

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend was reversed when the Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, the evident bullish breakout was expressed towards the price level of 1.2100 where the depicted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was expressed.

If the recent bearish breakout persists below 1.1700 (Neckline of the reversal pattern), a quick bearish decline should be expected towards the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 (Initial targets for the depicted H&S pattern).

The bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern extends towards 1.1350 if enough bearish pressure is applied against the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).

Trade Recommendations

Price action should be watched around the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 for evident bullish recovery and a possible short-term BUY entry.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for November 03, 2017

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair is still moving around the spot of 0.6818 and 0.6968. The NZD/USD pair rebounded from the level of 0.6818 in the long term. It should be noted that the support is established at the level of 0.6818 which represents the daily support 1t on the H4 chart. The NZD/USD pair is showing signs of force following a breakout of the highest price of 0.6968. The price was in a bullish channel since this morning. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. The NZD/USD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 0.6818. As long as the trend is above the price of 0.6818, the market is still in an uptrend. In addition, the trend is still strong above the moving average (MA100). The NZD/USD pair didn't make any significant movements last two days. The market is indicating a bullish opportunity above the mentioned support levels. The bullish outlook remains valid as long as the 100 EMA heads for the upside. Therefore, strong support will be found around the spot of 0.6818 providing a clear signal to buy with a target seen at 0.6968. If the trend breaks the first resistance at 0.6968, the pair will move upwards continuing the bullish trend development to the level of 0.7207 in order to test the daily resistance 2. It should be noted that the major resistance is seen at 0.7207 today.However, it would also be wise to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set below the level of 0.6700.
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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for November 3, 2017

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Daily Outlook

A recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards next price zones around 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) and 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

Recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhanced the bearish side of the market. This brought the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) which failed to pause the ongoing bearish momentum.

An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart indicating a high probability of bearish reversal as long as bearish persistence below the neckline 0.7150 is maintained.

As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why the further bearish decline should be expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).

However, if the recent low (0.6817) remains defended by the bulls, a bullish pullback towards 0.7050 and a short-term BUY entry can be expected during this week's consolidations.

On the other hand, The next DEMAND level to meet the pair is located around 0.6710 that maybe visited if enough bearish pressure is applied below 0.6800.

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Bitcoin analysis for 03/11/2017

With the aggressive growth of Bitcoin above the $ 7,000 level, the total capitalization of the market for the first time in history was over $ 200 billion. It is impossible to hide that Bitcoin is largely responsible for it. The value of the BTC market is more than 60% of the value of the entire cryptocurrency market.

At the beginning of 2017, the total value of the cryptocurrency market was only $ 18 billion. This represents more than eleven times the market value in just 10 months. This impressive growth is due to the ever-increasing popularity of Bitcoin and the slow but systematic adaptation of blockchain technology by large and well-known institutions and governments of various countries.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market extended the rally in the last wave (iii) and made a new all-time high at the level of $7,476. Nevertheless, the corrective cycle of the wave (iv) will come soon and the first target for the correction is the level of $7,000. The larger time frame trend is still up, but the market conditions are extremely overbought.

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Trading plan for 03/11/2017

Much data, but little reaction. EUR/USD is located around 1.1660. USD/JPY is around 114.00. On the shoulder is still a pound: GBP/USD only slightly bounced over 1.3050. The Australian dollar, which loses nearly 0.5 percent after the next apparently disappointing retail sale, is the most neglected currency.

On Friday 3rd of November, the main event of the day is Non-Farm Payrolls data release from the US with the rest of the US job market data. Moreover, Canada will release Unemployment Rate and Employment Changes as well.

EUR/USD analysis for 03/11/2017:

The Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings and Participation Rate are all scheduled for release at 12:30 pm GMT. Market participants expect a huge increase in Non-Farm Employment Change number, from -33k to 312k, but a steady unemployment rate at 4.2%. The earnings are expected to decrease from 0.5% to 0.2% on monthly basis and from 2.9% to 2.7% on a yearly basis. Hurricane disturbances have had a strong impact on the September labor market report and we will now see corrections of those readings. This means a sharp jump in employment, but also a slower rise in wages. The second thing is more important for the US Dollar, but only a big disappointment can hit the course. As the Fed's December rally seems unlikely, the market is more likely than the data to show progress in the fiscal policy. The strong jump in wages in September was justified by the increase in hours spent working on reconstruction work in regions affected by hurricanes Harvey and Irma. Now, when the ratio between regular pay and overtime is normalized, it will lower the rate of pay. For the Fed, direct inflation readings are more important, but weaker wages may weaken the market's estimate of the December rate hike. With a probability of 80% at 6 weeks before the decision, it is possible that after the worse data the market will lower the valuation. This would hit the US Dollar, but in a somewhat limited way, because, firstly, one report from the labor market is not enough to dissuade the Fed from a hike. Secondly, the market has recently underestimated macro data from the US, being more focused on the progress of the tax bill and the election of a new president of the Fed.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market tried to break through 38% Fibo retracements at the level of 1.1674, but failed and got back to the horizontal zone. Currently, the price trades at around the level of 1.1650 as the market awaits the NFP data.

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Market Snapshot: DAX at new all-time highs

The price of German DAX had made a new marginal high at the level of 13,503 points and still trades above the golden internal trend line support. Only an impulsive breakout below the technical support at the level of 13,336 would change the bias from bullish to bearish and this situation might occur soon as the market conditions are extremely overbought.

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Market Snapshot: USD/CAD falls out of the channel

The price of USD/CAD has fallen out of the golden channel and now trades close to the technical support at the level of 1.2777. The level of 1.2919 had been tested already, so any worse than expected Canadian job market data might push the prices below the technical support towards the next support level at 1.2662.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for November 3, 2017

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD is still consolidating in the context of a downtrend. When volatility returns to the market, it would most probably favor bears, for the price is expected to reach the support lines at 1.1600 and 1.1550, which would be tested between today or next week.

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USD/CHF: This currency trading instrument is moving sideways in the context of an uptrend. A rise in momentum is expected today or early next week, which would either take price above the resistance level at 1.0050 or take it below the support level at 0.9900. Price currently hovers around the psychological level at 1.0000.

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GBP/USD: The GBP/USD dropped more than 200 pips yesterday. Other GBP pairs dropped, while the EUR/GBP shot upwards. Generally, the drop, after the distribution territory at 1.3300 was tested, is about 250 pips. Price is now below the distribution territory at 1.3050, going towards the accumulation territory at 1.3000. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart, and a further drop is highly probable.

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USD/JPY: The USD/JPY has not done much this week, but the bias on the market is essentially bullish. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56, and the RSI period 14 is above the level 50. It is highly probable that when momentum returns to the market, it would be in favor of bulls. The next targets could be the supply levels at 114.50 and 115.00 would be tested very soon.

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EUR/JPY: A bullish signal has almost been generated on this cross, for the EMA 11 has crossed the EMA 56 to the upside. The RSI period 14 is above the level 50. Although the price is currently consolidating, it would soon move above the supply zone 133.50, thus creating a vivid Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for November 03, 2017

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USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. Despite the pair posting a pullback, it is still supported by a bullish trend line. A support base at 1.1635 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilization. The rising 50-period moving average is also playing a support role.

Hence, above 113.70, look for the continuation of rebound to 114.50 and even to 114.75 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a short position is recommended above113.55 with a target at 113.30.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 113.70, Take Profit: 114.50

Resistance levels: 114.30, 114.75 and 114.90 Support Levels: 113.50, 113.30, 113.00

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for November 03, 2017

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USD/CHF is expected to trade with a bearish outlook. Despite the pair posting a rebound from 0.9945 (the low of November 2), the upward potential is likely to be limited by the resistance at 1.0005. The declining 50-period moving average is playing a resistance role.

On the political ground, U.S. President Donald Trump officially nominated Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell to be central bank's chairman.

To sum up, as long as 1.0015 holds on the upside, look for a return with targets at 0.9945 and 0.9920 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot points indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 1.0015, Take Profit: 0.9945

Resistance levels: 1.0040, 1.0070, and 1.0100

Support levels: 0.9945, 0.9920, and 0.9900

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BITCOIN Analysis for November 3, 2017

Bitcoin has surged much higher above $7300 today without any retracement as we were expecting it to have. The bullish momentum is quite impulsive in nature which leads to a non-volatile trend without any deeper pullbacks along the way. As of the recent introduction of futures for Digital Currencies, the Bitcoin has found significant push which helped in the impulsive gain. Despite the Bearish Divergence in place, Bitcoin is still surging higher which does indicate that the impulsive bullish pressure is just making room for much deeper pullback and corrections in the coming days before it hits the next milestone at $8000 price level. As of the current situation, the price is still quite unbeatable with the bullish gains and it has moved far away from the dynamic level of 20 MA which is expected to result to certain pullback towards the levels before surging up much higher in the coming days.

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for November 3, 2017

The Dollar index marginally broke below the bullish short-term channel yesterday but sharply came back inside. The announcement of Non-Farm Payrolls today could give a boost for the Dollar for the final new high. Or is this what everyone expects and the market will not deliver?

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Blue lines - bullish channel

The Dollar index remains in a bullish trend. Price is breaking above both the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators prior to the announcement of the NFP later today. Technically as long as we are above yesterday lows we should be heading towards 95-95.50.

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The price on the weekly chart has nothing new to show us. We remain close to the 38% Fibonacci retracement and the weekly kijun-sen. The longer-term trend remains bearish. We could see one final spike higher towards 95.50 but I believe that over the coming weeks the downtrend will resume.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for November 3, 2017

The Gold price has entered the Ichimoku cloud but is unable to clearly break above $1,283. The price got rejected at the resistance of $1,283 and is still in danger of moving towards $1,250-45.

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Blue line - resistance (broken)

Red line - support

The Gold price has entered the Ichimoku cloud. The trend is neutral. Short-term resistance remains at $1,283-84. Support is at $1,267. Breaking support will push the price towards $1,260-55. Breaking resistance will push the price towards $1,300-$1,310.

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The Gold daily candle price is trading above the tenkan-sen (red line indicator). However, this is not enough for the bulls to be in control. The trend remains bearish on the daily chart. Resistance is at the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator) at $1,283. Next resistance is at the Kumo at $1,296. I remain longer-term bullish.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan 11/03/2017

Trading plan 11/03/2017

GBPUSD: Now the decline looks more likely.

On Thursday, the pound behaved in a self-contradictory way (just the way it likes): showing a sharp decline at the rate hike of the Bank of England. Analysts, of course, explained the fall of the pound by the unwillingness of the Bank of England to firmly promise new rate increases.

Nevertheless, the fact is clear: Pound sellers were much stronger than buyers on the important news. Now a fresh decline looks more likely.

On Friday, a report on employment in the US for October (at 11:30 AM London Time - It should also be noted that on Monday, November 6, the United States will switch to winter time, and the news on the US will again go out into the usual 12:30 and 6:00 PM London Time.

Thus, there is the probability of strong movement.

We are ready to sell for a breakthrough downward to 1.3025.

The alternative is to buy at the breakthrough of 1.3325 upward.

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Breaking forecast 11/03/2017

Breaking forecast 11/03/2017

Ready to earn on strong movement on the U.S. employment report

On Friday, the important news is the official US employment report for October (Nonfarm payrolls).

Analysts predict high figures of + 200, 000- +300. 000.

At the same time, several important news in favor of the US dollar, already released in recent days, did not lead to a strengthening of the dollar - on the contrary, the EURUSD rate keeps near the highs of the week.

It is still preferred to hold EURUSD buying from 1.1660 with a target of 1.1760.

However, in case of a sharp turn down sell from 1.1574 - also based on a strong move.

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for November 03, 2017

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GBP/JPY is under pressure. The pair is proceeding toward the nearest support at 149.90 while being capped by the descending 20-period moving average. Intraday bearishness is also maintained by the negatively-sloped 50-period moving average. The relative strength index is yet to recover the neutrality level of 50, showing a lack of upward momentum for the pair. A break below 148.20 would trigger a further decline toward 147.80.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a long position is recommended above 149.90 with the target at 150.65.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 149.90, Take Profit: 148.20

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates long positions; and when it is below the pivot points, it indicates short positions. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 150.65, 151.40 and 152.05

Support levels: 148.20, 147.80, and 147.00

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for November 03, 2017

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We will retain our yesterday's bullish outlook of NZD/USD pair. The pair is consolidating above the key support at 0.6900, which should maintain the buying interest. Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

To conclude, as long as 0.6900 is not broken, look for a further upside with targets at 0.6950 and 0.6970 in extension.

The black line is showing the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which indicates long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines are showing the support levels and the green line is indicating the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.6950, 0.6970, and 0.6995

Support levels: 0.6880, 0.6850, and 0.6725

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for November 3, 2017

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Wave summary:

EUR/NZD corrected higher to 1.6914, before losing steam and is again pushing lower and a break below support at 1.6790 will confirm a continuation lower to 1.6545 to complete wave ii and setting the stage for the next impulsive rally in wave iii towards 1.7778 and above.

Short-term only a break above minor resistance at 1.6871 will ease the downside pressure and call for a new minor pop closer to 1.6954 before lower again.

R3: 1.6954

R2: 1.6914

R1: 1. 6857

Pivot: 1.6790

S1: 1.6712

S2: 1.6660

S3: 1.6545

Trading recommendation:

We took half profit at 1.6910 for a small profit of 20 pips. We will take profit on the second half at 1.6910 too or take our stop + reverse to short EUR at 1.6790

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 3, 2017

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Wave summary:

No change in view here.

We continue to look for resistance near 133.32 to cap the upside for a break below support at 131.60 confirming that wave (D) completed the test of 134.49 and wave (E) lower to 123.43 now is developing.

Short-term a break below minor support at 132.59 will indicate that wave ii has completed and wave iii lower is developing for a decline to 131.60 and likely closer to 128.36.

R3: 134.49

R2: 133.98

R1: 133.33

Pivot: 132.59

S1: 131.86

S2: 131.42

S3: 131.09

Trading recommendation:

We will sell EUR at 133.20 or upon a break below support at 132.59 with stop placed at 134.55.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/CAD for November 3, 2017

EUR/CAD has been quite volatile after a false break off 1.5050-75 resistance area. EUR has been quite mixed with the economic reports recently which lead to all the correction in this pair with no definitive directional movement. Today is a very important day for CAD as several high impact economic reports are going to be published. Today CAD Employment Change report is going to be published which is expected to show an increase to 15.3k from the previous figure of 10.0k, Trade Balance report is expected to show less deficit at -3.0B from the previous figure of -3.4B and Unemployment Rate is expected to be unchanged at 6.2%. On the EUR side, today we do not have any economic event or report which could influence the movement of EUR against CAD today whereas any positive or negative outcome of CAD reports will provide the indication for the upcoming directional move in this pair. As of the current situation, CAD is expected to have an upper hand over EUR in the coming days which might lead to further bearish pressure in the pair.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price has recently shown some bullish rejection after the impulsive bearish pressure in this pair. The price is currently residing inside the range between 1.4680 to 1.5050-75 area. The price is expected to show some bearish pressure in the coming days with a target towards 1.4680 support area in the coming days. As the price remains below 1.5050-75 resistance area the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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Fundamental Analysis of NZDUSD for November 3, 2017

NZD/USD has recently bounced off the support area of 0.6850 after strong bearish trend in place. NZD has been quite weak in comparison to USD whereas this week positive economic reports helped NZD to gain over USD. Recently NZD Employment Change report was published with the increased value of 2.2% from the previous value of -0.1% which was expected to be at 0.8%, Unemployment Rate was decreased better than expected at 4.6% from the previous value of 4.8% which was expected to be at 4.7% and Labor Cost Index report was published with an increase as expected at 0.7% which previously was at 0.4%. On the other hand, today is going to be a very volatile day for USD as several high impact economic reports are going to be published today on USD. Today, USD Average Hourly Earnings report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.5%, Non-Farm Employment Change is expected to be positive at 312k from the previous negative value of -33k and Unemployment Rate is expected to be unchanged at 4.2%. Along with these reports, USD Trade Balance report is going to be published which is expected to show greater deficit at -43.3B from the previous figure of -42.4B, Final Services PMI report is expected to have slight decrease to 55.7 from the previous figure of 55.9, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is expected to decrease to 58.5 from the previous figure of 59.8, Factory Orders is expected to rise to 1.3% from the previous value of 1.2% and FOMC member Kashkari is going to speak about the nation's key interest rate decision and future monetary policies which are expected to be neutral in nature. To sum up, today is going to be a very volatile day for the pair whereas we might see certain spikes on each side before showing any impulsive directional move. As of the current situation, if USD reports today could not produce positive results then NZD is expected to gain further over USD in the coming days or else the bearish trend is expected to continue.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently residing above the support area of 0.6850 which is expected to progress higher towards 0.7050 resistance area in the coming days. Along the way, the price might consolidate along the dynamic level of 20 EMA and if the dynamic level holds the price with a daily close below it then we will be looking forward to selling with a target towards 0.6650 support area. Currently, the trend is short-term bullish as the price residing above 0.6850 support area.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Nov 03, 2017

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as Spanish Unemployment Change. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Factory Orders m/m, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Final Services PMI, Trade Balance, Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Employment Change, and Average Hourly Earnings m/m, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a medium to high volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1716.

Strong Resistance:1.1709.

Original Resistance: 1.1698.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1687.

Target Inner Area: 1.1659.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1631.

Original Support: 1.1620.

Strong Support: 1.1609.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1602.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Nov 03, 2017

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In Asia, Japan today will not release any Economic Data, but the US will release some Economic Data, such as Factory Orders m/m, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Final Services PMI, Trade Balance, Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Employment Change, and Average Hourly Earnings m/m. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with medium to high volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 114.51.

Resistance. 2: 114.29.

Resistance. 1: 114.06.

Support. 1: 113.79.

Support. 2: 113.57.

Support. 3: 113.34.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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EUR/USD forming a really nice reversal, remain bearish

The price has started to form a really nice reversal pattern as we first suspected. We remain bearish below major resistance at 1.1666 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance, breakout area, bearish divergence) for a further push back down to 1.1573 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (21,3,1) is dropping nicely with good downside potential. Bearish divergence vs price signals that a reversal is impending.

Sell below 1.1666. Stop loss is at 1.1738. Take profit is at 1.1573.

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EUR/JPY profit target reached perfectly, prepare to sell

The price has shot up and reached our profit target perfectly as expected. We prepare to sell below major resistance at 133.12 (Multiple Fibonacci extensions, horizontal pullback resistance) for a push down to at least 132.28 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support).

Stochastic (89,3,1) is seeing major resistance below 99% where we expect a strong reaction from.

Sell below 133.12. Stop loss is at 133.51. Take profit is at 132.28.

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BITCOIN Analysis for November 2, 2017

Bitcoin has surged higher today with a break above the $7000 price level quite impulsively but currently, it is showing some rejection off the level. The price has been quite volatile after breaking above the $7000 price area today as it seemed like the market was not ready to push over $7000 and sustain the gain yet. As of recent approval of future trading of Digital currencies, the Bitcoin price has surged up and it is currently expected that the price will soon hit the $8000 price level very soon. The price has been quite non-volatile and bullish without any deeper pullbacks along the way which lead to the creation of bearish divergence off the $7000 price level. Currently, the volume being traded for Bitcoin has reduced as per MACD histogram levels which are expected to indicate upcoming bearish pressure towards the supports at $6000, $5500 and $5000 area. As the price remains above $5000 price level the bullish bias is expected to continue further. In this case, the deeper the pullback will happen the better impulsive bullish move can be expected from Bitcoin in the future.

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Fundamental Analysis of AUD/JPY for November 2, 2017

AUD/JPY is currently quite bullish in nature which leads to more impulsive behavior after breaking above 87.50 resistance area with a daily close. The recent positive economic reports of AUD has provided the currency to sufficient boost to push higher which is expected to continue further in the coming days. Today AUD Trade Balance was published with an increase to 1.75B from the previous figure of 0.87B which was expected to be at 1.42B and Building Approvals report also showed an increase to 1.5% from the previous value of 0.1% which was expected to be negative at -0.9%. Moreover, tomorrow AUD Retail Sales report is going to be published which is expected to show positive value of 0.4% increase from the previous negative value of -0.6%. On the other hand, JPY was quite mixed with the economic reports today which lead to further weakness of the currency in the pair against AUD. Today JPY Monetary Base report was published with a decreased value of 14.5% from the previous value of 15.6% which was expected to have a slight increase to 15.7% and Consumer Confidence report was published with an increase to 44.5 from the previous figure of 43.9 which was expected to decrease to 43.6. As of the current scenario, AUD has been the dominating currency in the pair with the support of the positive economic reports and with a high impact economic report to be published with a positive forecast is an additional benefit for the upcoming gains against JPY. To sum up, AUD is expected to have an upper hand over JPY in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently residing above the resistance area of 87.50 with a daily close which was retested today as support before the price surged higher impulsively. Currently, the price is expected to proceed higher towards 89.40 resistance area in the coming days. As the price remains above 87.50 with the daily close the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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The Fed's statement on November 01, 2017. FRS Comment on the Base Interest Rate Decision

The Fed's statement on November 01, 2017. FRS comment on the base interest rate decision

Maintaining the base interest rate in the target range of 1.00% -1.25%, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve commented on its decision and the current situation in the country.

The Fed noted a significant increase in the economic activity, despite the hurricanes that caused destructions, the situation in the labor market continued to improve due to consistent reduction in unemployment, even in the face of declining employment in September brought by the subsequent storms.

The Fed stated that during the period between the commission meetings, family expenses showed moderate expansion, and the investment growth by business structures has increased significantly in the recent quarters.

The Fed continues to assess long-term inflation expectations as stable. At the same time, the total inflation and basic inflation is calculated on a 12-month basis, which does not include energy and food prices, decreased this year and remained below 2%. The rise in gasoline prices, after the impact of hurricanes. But the basic inflation remained at the same level. Compensatory has the same impact on inflation from the markets and continues to be implemented in a small extent.

In compliance with its authority, the Fed seeks to promote maximum employment and price stability. The damage and restoration of works by hurricanes will affect economic activity, employment and inflation in the near future, but previous experiences shows that the impact of economic growth in the medium term. Therefore, the Fed still expects that the gradual regulation of the monetary policy will expand economic activity at a moderate pace and further strengthen the labor market. Annual inflation is expected to remain slightly below 2% in the near future, but should stabilize near the Fed's target level of 2% in the medium term. Short-term risks for the economic outlook look fairly balanced, but the Fed will continue to closely monitor inflation.

Considering the previously achieved and expected parameters of the labor market and inflation, the Federal Reserve decided to keep the range of federal funds target rate at 1.00% -1.25%. The basic principles of monetary policy will remain flexible enough, providing support for improvement of labor market conditions and a steady return of inflation level towards 2%.

In determining the timing and scope of future regulation for the range of federal funds target, the Fed will be guided by both achieved and expected progress in moving towards long-term goals of maximum employment and inflation at 2%. This approach will be based on a wide range of information, including parameters of labor market conditions, indicators of inflationary pressures and inflation expectations, financial and international events. The Fed will closely monitor the actual and expected inflation processes in relation to its symmetric target inflation rate. The Fed expects that economic conditions will develop a way for ensuring a smooth increase in the interest rate for federal funds and it will probably remain for some time below the levels that are expected to prevail over the long term. However, the actual interest rate trajectory for federal funds will depend on economic trends in accordance with the incoming data.

The program for normalizing the balance of the Fed, which started in October 2017, continues to be implemented.

The current fundamentals of monetary policy were adopted unanimously by 9 members of the Federal Open Market Committee of the US Federal Reserve.

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

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The pound climbed too high

The Fed, as expected, kept the benchmark interest rate target between 1.00% -1.25% at its meeting that was concluded yesterday, and no significant changes were made to the text of the accompanying statement. The Fed noted that the fall in employment in September is a consequence of the hurricanes, and therefore will not affect economic data.

The dollar did not react to the results of the meeting, as it is preparing for two more important events that will take place on Thursday. As expected, President Trump will announce his choice for the chief of the Fed, and depending on who takes the position, centrist Powell or more hawkish candidate Taylor, the market would provide a distinct reaction in the form of the strengthening the dollar. Also set for Thursday, Republicans will present in the Congress, a detailed plan for the tax reform, this event is capable of causing positive growth and will contribute to the growth of the dollar.

Eurozone

Macroeconomic indicators for the euro area this week are quite contradictory. According to the European Commission, the business climate is improving, which follows from the results of studies published in October for October, and also supported the release of Eurostat preliminary data on eurozone GDP for the 3rd quarter, which were better than forecasts.

At the same time, inflation unexpectedly slowed down more than forecasted - the base index for the euro area fell to 1.1% from 1.3% in September, which raises the pressure on the euro.

Given the strong positive expectations for the dollar, the possible corrective growth of the euro is limited to a level of 1.1750, any attempts at strengthening will be used for selling, the chances of updating the October low at 1.1575 are quite high.

United Kingdom

The Bank of England at Thursday's meeting will likely hike the interest rate by a quarter point, responding to a reduction in the unemployment rate and growing inflation.

At the same time, opinions on whether the Bank of England is prepared to begin the cycle of raising, or limited to a single intervention, are divided, and it is from this assessment that the fate of the pound following the meeting will highly depend on. The majority of the market expects voting to end with a score of 7/2 that is in favor of the increase, and the central bank will be extremely cautious in its assessments, without providing any hints as to when the second hike will take place.

According to the consensus opinion of the market, the UK economy is not prepared for a new cycle. Wage growth significantly lags behind the growth rates of inflation, and therefore, there is no confidence in sustainable consumer demand. Furthermore, inflation, in fact, is largely due to the consequences of Brexit (a drop in the purchasing power of the pound and the related rise in the price of imports) compared with internal causes. Published on Tuesday, the consumer confidence index of Gfk Group clearly indicates that consumer confidence in the last 5 months is at a consistently low level and there is no reason to expect changes in the short term.

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Also on Thursday, the release of updated macroeconomic forecasts and the press conference of Mark Carney is expected. The logic of the situational assessment suggests that the inflation forecast may be raised in the short term in order to justify the rate hike, but it will remain unchanged for a long time, which will eventually provoke a sell-off of the pound.

The most likely scenario, therefore, is that the market will use the rate hike to lock in profits, after which the pound will surrender its winning positions, and the initiative will go back to the dollar, the potential growth is limited by a resistance of 1.3440/50.

Oil

The report of the Ministry of Energy of the United States was slightly worse than the report published by the API from the day prior, and thus led to profit taking. At the same time, there are still very few reasons for a reversal and a significant decline in prices. OPEC continues to maintain a consistently low production level, not allowing the market to feel saturated, the prospects for an extension of the OPEC + agreement still appears high, the aggregate demand from Asian countries continues to grow.

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Daily analysis of USDX for November 02, 2017

The index is around the 200 SMA on the H1 chart and looks forward to test the resistance zone of 95.14. However, we're expecting corrective moves to take place at this stage and once it breaks below the moving average, USDX is poised to test the support area of 93.97. The MACD indicator remains in the neutral territory calling for sideways.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 95.14 / 95.85

H1 chart's support levels: 94.60 / 93.97

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 95.14, take profit is at 95.85 and stop loss is at 94.47.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for November 03, 2017

The pair was under strong selling pressure during Thursday's session after the BoE's interest rate decision. Technically, GBP/USD is trading below the 200 SMA and it's on the way to test the support level of 1.3037 because the lows from October 27th gave up to the bears' force. To the upside, a break above 1.3161 should expose the 1.3309 level.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3309 / 1.3437

H1 chart's support levels: 1.3161 / 1.3037

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.3161, take profit is at 1.3037 and stop loss is at 1.3282.

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