EUR/NZD analysis for February 27, 2015

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Overview:


In our last analysis EUR/NZD was trading downwards. The price has tested the level of 1.4826 in an average volume. The resistance level at the price of 1.5200 was held successfully and it caused the price to start with downward movement. Our Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of 1.4865 is on the test so be careful when selling EUR/NZD. Anyway, the major long-term support is around the price of 1.4785. According to the H1 timeframe, we can observe weak supply around the price of 1.4828. My advice is to watch for potential bullish opportunities with better conditions. Any larger reaction from our support levels may confirm a further phase.


Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.5003


R2: 1.5056


R3: 1.5142


Support levels:


S1: 1.4831


S2: 1.4778


S3: 1.4692


Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling at this stage and watch for potential buying opportunities after retracement (buy on the dips).


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Gold : analysis for February 27, 2015

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Overview :


Since our last analysis, gold has been trading sideways around the price of $1,210.00. We can observe demand in a high volume on the market. According to a 30-minute time frame, we got a selling climax and an absorption volume in the background, which is a sign that selling gold at this stage looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. We have a resistance level around the price of 1,235.00 (Fibonacci retracement 38.2%). According to a daily time frame, we got demand in a volume above average.


Daily Fibonacci pivot points:


Resistance levels :


R1: 1,218.86


R2: 1,227.63


R3: 1,235.36


Support levels :


S1: 1,202.36


S2: 1,194.63


S3: 1,185.86


Trading recommendations: Watch for potential buying opportunities after a retracement (buy on the dips).




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EUR/AUD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for February 27, 2015

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By the end of 2014, the EUR/AUD pair declined rapidly off 1.5330 reaching down to 1.3970 where bullish recovery was manifested.


Recently the EUR/AUD pair has been trending upwards within the depicted bullish channel until the price level of 1.4800 was reached few weeks ago.


The price level of 1.4800 corresponds to the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the recent bearish swing. Around it a DOUBLE-TOP bearish reversal pattern was expressed.


Confirmation of the reversal pattern required DAILY fixation below the price level of 1.4500, which corresponds to the most recent bottom. This has already occurred on Wednesday.


If the current daily closure persists below 1.4500, initial projection target would be located around 1.4300 and then 1.4270 where the lower limit of the newly-established H4 channel is located.


Note the bullish spike of the yesterday's daily candlestick. It represents the failure of bulls to gather enough momentum to push above 1.4500 enhancing the bearish side of the market.


Trading recommendations:


DAILY closure below 1.4500 indicated a low-risk SELL entry. TP levels would be located around 1.4300 and 1.4270. SL should be set as daily closure again above 1.4500.


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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for February 27, 2015

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The market has been pushing lower aggressively after breaking below the major DEMAND LEVELS around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously established back in July 2012 and June 2010.


The EUR/USD pair has lost almost 800 pips since the beginning of 2015. Moreover, theoretical long-term bearish targets would be located near 0.9450, especially after the FULL bearish MONTHLY below 1.2000 (January's monthly candlestick).


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Bearish breakout below 1.2000 and 1.1900 (prominent psychological SUPPORT) allowed a quick bearish decline towards 1.1100 to take place few days later.


Conservative traders were suggested to wait for a bullish pullback looking for better prices to SELL the EUR/USD pair off (R1 at 1.1550 and R2 at 1.1700). However, the EUR/USD bulls did not show enough bullish momentum to reach these levels.


Instead, a bearish Flag pattern was established on the daily chart. DAILY fixation below the price level of 1.1260 (recent bottom) confirmed this bearish pattern.


Risky traders could benefit from DAILY breakdown of 1.1260 (recent DEMAND level). This probably indicates a quick bearish visit towards the WEEKLY low around 1.1110.


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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for February 27, 2015

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Bearish breakout below 1.5550 directly exposed lower targets. Bears have already pushed towards the price levels of 1.5050 and 1.4960, which have not been visited since July 2013.


Around the price levels of 1.5050 and 1.4960 the market has established another consolidation zone, which extended up to the price levels of 1.5280.


Two weeks ago, the ongoing bearish trend was terminated when bullish breakout above 1.5200 took place, as depicted on the chart. Since then, the GBP/USD pair has been trending upwards within the depicted bullish channel.


Estimated projection targets are located around 1.5600-1.5640 where the previous consolidation zone was located. However, earlier, around 1.5550 bears have applied significant bearish pressure resulting in the formation of a bearish engulfing daily candlestick without further retesting of 1.5600.


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By the end of the last week, the GBP/USD pair has consolidated above the price zone of 1.5360 (61.8% Fibonacci level), which failed to provide enough RESISTANCE over the last bullish swing.


For the current bullish breakout to persist, bulls should keep defending the price zone of 1.5300-1.5330 that is being approached today.


Estimated projection targets for the recent bullish breakout are roughly located around 1.5600-1.5640, which have not been tested yet.


On the other hand, the price action should be watched around the price zone of 1.5350-1.5300 to determine the next destination of the GBP/USD pair.


Bearish breakdown of 1.5300 should not be excluded, especially after the obvious bearish engulfing candlestick of yesterday.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for February 27, 2015

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Fundamental Outlook:
USD/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range. The US second estimate GDP for 4Q that is to be released on Friday at 13:30 GMT will be in the spotlight (forecast +2.0%). USD/JPY is underpinned by the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 95.28 versus 94.19 early Thursday), higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.038% versus 1.969% late Wednesday), thanks to 2.8% increase in US January durable goods orders (versus forecast +0.6%) and a rise in U.S. January core CPI by 0.2% on-month (versus forecast +0.1%) that raised odds that the Federal Reserve interest rates hike could come as early as June.


USD/JPY is also supported by demand from Japan's importers, the ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy and news that Japan's Federation of National Public Service Personnel Mutual Aid Associations would increase its exposure of domestic stocks to 25% from 8%. But the USD sentiment is dented by more-than-expected number of 313,000 U.S. jobless claims in week ended Feb. 21 (versus forecast 290,000). The USD/JPY gains are also tempered by the Japanese exports, selling of the yen crosses amid diminished investor risk appetite (VIX fear gauge rose 0.51% to 13.91, S&P 500 closed 0.15% lower at 2,110.74 overnight) on renewed sell-off in oil prices and by positions adjustment ahead of the weekend.


Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as stochastics is bearish, but the MACD is in bullish mode, five-day moving average is meandering sideways.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 119.65 and the second target at 119.95. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 118.50. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 118.25. The pivot point is at 119.


Resistance levels:

119.65

119.95

120.35

Support levels:

118.50

118.25

117.95


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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for NZD/USD for February 27, 2015

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Few months ago, the NZD/USD pair established a consolidation zone that extended between the price levels of 1.7620 and 1.7870.


On January 20, bears managed to execute a successful breakout below the major DEMAND level at 1.7620. Shortly after, the bears managed to reach a new low around 0.7200 where significant bullish recovery was executed.


Recently, the NZD/USD pair managed to break above 0.7430 (key level). This price level has been providing significant SUPPORT for the pair so far.


Hence, bullish pressure is expected to be applied over the nearest SUPPLY level to meet the NZD/USD pair around 0.7630.


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The H4 chart showed an inverted Head and Shoulders pattern that originated off the price level of 0.7200 (the most recent low).


Bullish fixation above the neck-line (the price level of 0.7450) confirmed the reversal pattern.


Estimated bullish projection target for the reversal pattern is located around the price level of 0.7676.


On the other hand, the price level of 0.7630 corresponds to the 61.8% Fibonacci Level as well as the lower limit of the broken consolidation zone depicted on the chart.


Hence, the price zone of 0.7630-0.7670 should be watched for the price action as low-risk SELL entries can be taken at retesting. Stop Loss should be placed above 0.7700.


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for February 27, 2015

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Fundamental overview:
USD/CHF is expected to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting a six-week high of 0.9546 on Thursday. It is underpinned by the positive dollar sentiment, the negative Swiss interest rates and the threat of the Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention. But the USD/CHF gains are tempered by the positions adjustment ahead of the weekend.


Technical comment:
The daily chart is positive-biased as bullish outside-day-range pattern was completed on Thursday. The MACD and stochastics are bullish, although the latter is at overbought levels. Five- and 15-day moving averages are advancing.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9545 and the second target at 0.9580. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9405. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.9365. The pivot point is at 0.9445.


Resistance levels:

0.9545

0.9580

0.9605


Support levels:

0.9405

0.9365

0.9325


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for February 27, 2015

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Fundamental overview:
NZD/USD is expected to consolidate in a higher range after hitting a five-week high of 0.7613 on Thursday. It is undermined by the positive dollar sentiment and subdued investor risk appetite, soft commodity prices and 3.8% drop in New Zealand January building consents issued. But the NZD/USD losses are tempered by the kiwi demand on soft AUD/NZD cross and positions adjustment ahead of the weekend.


Technical comment:

The daily chart is mixed as the MACD bullish, five- and 15-day moving averages are advancing, but stochastics is turning bearish at overbought levels. Bearish shooting-star candlestick pattern was completed on Thursday.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.7615 and the second target at 0.7655. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7470. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.7430. The pivot point is at 0.7515.


Resistance levels:

0.7615

0.7655

0.7690



Support levels:


0.7470

0.7430

0.74


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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for Feburary 27, 2015

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Fundamental overview:
GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. It is undermined by the weak EUR/USD undertone, diminished investor risk appetite and Japan's exports. But the GBP/JPY losses are tempered by demand from the Japanese importers and positions adjustment ahead of the weekend.


Technical comment:
The daily chart is tilting negative as bearish outside-day-range pattern was completed on Thursday, stochastics is bearish, the positive MACD histogram bars are contracting and five-day moving average falling below 15-day moving average.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 183.35. A break of this target will move the pair further downward to 182.90. The pivot point stands at 184.50. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 185.05 and the second target at 185.70.


Resistance levels:

185.05

185.70

186.15


Support levels:

183.35

182.90

182.50


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for Febuary 27, 2015

General overview for 27/02/2015 10:16 CET


The alternate scenario suggesting an (a)(b)(c)(d)(e) blue triangle pattern might just have been completed and the yesterday's rally might be the first wave upward in shape of the leading diagonal. To confirm this kind of wave progression, the market cannot break below the level of 1.2885 (invalidation level) and it should bounce and reverse at the intraday support at the level of 1.2454. Any violation of this level would lead to the recent low test and possible invalidation of the bullish impulsive scenario.


Support/Resistance:


1.2349 - Technical Support


1.2454 - Intraday Support


1.2435 - WS1


1.2496 - Weekly Pivot


1.2531 - Intraday Resistance


Trading recommendations:


Yesterday's buy orders hit the TP level. Currently, the long side of the market should be considered with SL below the level of 1.2454 and TP at the level of 1.2531 with a possible upward extension.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for Febuary 27, 2015

General overview for 27/02/2015 10:00 CET


The Elliott wave sccenario was relabeled as the general projections of the wave development turned out to be slightly different than anticipated. Currently, the whole structure that had been developing inside the golden channel was labeled as a triple-three corrective cycle wave XX brown and one more sub-wave down is expected here before the market will bounce and reverse to the upside. The key level for this bullish scenario is the intraday resistance at the level of 134.43 and any breakout higher is bullish.


Support/Resistance:


137.25 - 137.64 - Projected Target Zone


136.90 - WR1


135.21 - Weekly Pivot


134.43 - Intraday Resistance|Key Level|


134.21 - WS1


134.00 - Intraday Resistance


133.54 - Intraday Support


132.56 - WS2


Trading recommendations:


Daytraders should consider opening sell orders only if the level of 133.54 is violated with SL above the level of 134.00 ant TP at the level of 132.56. Please, notice the wave XX is about to complete and a bounce/reversal is quite possible in this market.


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#USDX technical analysis for February 27, 2015

The US Dollar index finally made a breakout yesterday. The US Dollar index has made an upward breakout which is a strong buy signal. I would expect a back test of the breakout today and then a resumption of the uptrend towards new highs. The longer-term target remains at 100.


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Red lines = triangle pattern


The US Dollar index, as shown on the 4 hour chart above, has broken the triangle pattern upwards. Today we could see a pullback towards 94.80 in order to backtest the breakout. The trend is now bullish in the short term and as long as the price remains above the Ichimoku cloud and above 94, the trend will remain bullish and I will be expecting to reach 96 at first.


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Black lines = triangle


The breakout is also visible on the daily chart and now the price has moved above the kijun-sen and the tenkan-sen lines. This is a bullish sign. The tenkan-sen remains above the kijun-sen supporting that the longer-term trend has never changed and remains fully bullish. My longer-term target is 100-101.


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Gold technical analysis for February 27, 2015

Gold price reached the resistance of $1,220, as expected, and got rejected. The trend remains bearish and the support level of $1,200 will be put to the test. If the price manages to hold above $1,200, we could see another new upward reversal that could bring the price above $1,235.


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Black line = resistance


Red line = support


Gold price reached the Ichimoku cloud resistance and the level of $1,220 that I mentioned was the target yesterday and got rejected as expected. The trend remains bearish. The price is falling back below the Ichimoku cloud and is now going to test the support at $1,200. Next support is at $1,190. A break of $1,200 will increase the chances of breaking below $1,190 and thus moving towards $1,160-$1,130.


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Red line = support


Gold price on the weekly chart remains bearish. The price bounced towards the kijun-sen at $1,220 but got rejected. It is important to see how this week closes. The price is below the Ichimoku cloud and below the kijun-sen (yellow line). The trend is bearish and I expect to see a move towards the red line support at $1,180. This is important support. If this support is held, we could see a strong bounce towards $1,250-60.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for February 27, 2015


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The EUR/JPY pair is trading at 133.60/70 levels for now, the lower boundary of its 200 pip trading range. Near-term upside potential remains till 137.50/138.00 levels from here. It is therefore recommended to remain long with risk below 132.50 levels. Bulls seem to be poised to rally and push the pair through 137.50 levels at least. Immediate support is seen at 133.50 (interim), followed by 132.50, 130.00 and lower while resistance is seen at 137.50/60 levels, 130.00, 142.30 and higher respectively. A meaningful correction could be expected once the pair reached 137.50/138.00 levels, which is the 0.382 fibonacci resistance of the drop from 149.50 to 130.50 levels respectively.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long, stop at 132.50, a target 137.50.


Good luck!




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Technical analysis of Silver for February 27, 2015


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Silver has rallied through the $16.90 levels as expected, before pulling back. The metal is facing a trend line resistance at $16.80/90 levels as seen here, and a push higher is required to instill further confidence in the bullish setup. It is still recommended to remain long with risk at $15.50 levels. Immediate support is seen at $16.00/10 levels, followed by $15.50 and lower while resistance is seen at $17.40/70 levels, followed by $18.40/50 and higher respectively. Bulls should be poised to remain in control till prices stay above $16.00 for now.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long, stop at $15.50, a target is open.


Good luck!




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Technical analysis of Gold for February 27, 2015


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Gold had raised through $1,220.00 levels as expected and discussed before pulling back again. The metal remained shy of taking out $1,225.00 resistance yesterday, but is still expected to do so today. A 4H snapshot depicted here clearly indicates that the metal has broken out of immediate trend line resistance and is now expected to rally past $1,246.00 levels in the sessions to come by. A break above the larger trend line resistance would confirm that a bottom is in place at $1,190.00 levels. It is recommended to remain long for now, risk remains at $1,170.00 levels. Immediate support is seen at $1,190.00 levels while resistance is seen at $1,225.00, followed by $1,235.00/40.00 and higher respectively.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long, stop at $1,170.00, a target is open.


Good luck!




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Technical analysis and trading recommendations on GBP/USD for February 27, 2014

UK GDP in volume terms is expected to have increased by 0.5% between Q3 2014 and Q4 2014. GDP was estimated to have increased by 2.6% in 2014 compared with 2013. The UK economy grew 2.7% annually. Business investment slipped. The fall in oil prices affected the North Sea petroleum industry. These factors influenced the pound sterling. Stronger US data dented the Pound along with the Euro at yesterday's session. The pound lost 1% against the US dollar. Technically, the cable was rejected at 20Wsma and 100Dsma and closed at the lowest point of the day. In Wednesday's article, we recommended buying at 1.5490 with targets at 1.5535, 1.5550, and 1.5564. The cable touched the second target and fell sharply. The prices managed to hold a two-week support trend line on the h4 chart. Today, at the Asian session the pair opened on a bullish note. We can find strong support base between 1.5330 and 1.5300. We recommend fresh selling only below 1.5300. The intraday resistance is found between 1.5430 and 1.5480. The panic will be triggered below 1.5400 with downside targets at 1.5280 and 1.5200. Bulls can challenge again, in case the price closes above 1.5480. For risk lovers, we recommend buying with sl 1.5400 with targets at 1.5430, 1.5444, 1.5465, and 1.5475. From the current market price, the sl is 9 pips away. We can expect strong hourly momentum above 1.5430. Today, traders are awaiting US prelim GDP. We expect the US GDP to rise between 2.0% and 2.1% .


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Technical analysis and trading recommendations on EUR/USD for February 27, 2014

Strong US data dented the euro at yesterday's session. The euro lost 1.5% at yesterday's session and closed below 1.1200. The US durable goods orders rose in January for the first time in three months. According to the Commerce Department report, the durable goods orders rose to 2.8%. The euro remained under pressure at the early Asian session today. We recommended in Wednesday's article selling below 1.1330 with targets at 1.1330, 1.1290, and 1.1270. The panic will be triggered below 1.1260 with targets at 1.1220 and 1.1190. The pair made a low at 1.1184. At the early Asian session, the prices are consolidating in a very narrow range between 1.1205 and 1.1192. The broken support base turned to a resistance zone between 1.1260 and 1.1280. Ahead of US prelim GDP, the US dollar is trading lower against the GBP, EUR, and JPY. We expect the US GDP to rise between 2.0% and 2.1%. Today, the German parliament is expected to agree the Greek's bailout extension. Besides, German, Italian, and Spanish Prelim CPI data is due. Again, we recommend using every rise to sell with targets at 1.11, 1.0970, and 1.0930. The panic will be triggered below 1.1150. In case, a h4 candle closes below 1.1150, bears can challenge mentioned lower targets.


Selling below 1.1150.


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Technical analysis and trading recommendations on Gold for February 27, 2014

The metal gained momentum after the dovish testimony by Yellen. The metal hit one-week high at yesterday's intraday session. The metal managed well to hold $1,190.00 twice, but was rejected at $1,222.60, the parallel resistance. The metal fell below $1,200.00 thrice and managed to close above it. It's a good sign to recover. Yellen suggests the first rate hike may not happen before the second half of the year. The US durable goods orders rose in January for the first time in three months. According to the Commerce Department report, the durable goods orders rose to 2.8%. The greenback hits a 1-month high. In India, RBI lifted a ban on gold imports. Nominated banks get permission to import gold on a consignment basis. We expect the imports for February to increase by 40 odd tonnes. On a weekly closing basis, bulls must close above $1,217.00. The intraday support is found at $1,204.00. The weekly and daily resistance is set at $1,223.00. We recommend fresh selling below $1,203.00 with targets at $1,200.00, $1,195.00, and $1,190.00. A daily close below $1,185.00 leads to $1,170.00, $1,167.00, and $1,150.00. Ahead of US prelim GDP, the metal is trading marginally green. In case the US GDP print falls short of expectations, there is a chance of an upside price momentum towards $1,217.00 and $1,222.00. From this view, we recommend buying above $1,212.00 with targets at $1,215.00, $1,217.00, and $1,222.00.


Selling below $1,203.00.


Buying above $1,212.00.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for February 27 - 2015

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Technical summary:


We are back at the low from mid-January. Looking at the monthly chart, we can see that strong support is found near 1.4700. We also have a big doji candle in January indicating a possible bottom being in place or at least nearby. However, to confirm a bottoming being in place, we need a five wave rally and even better a break above 1.5231. As long as minor resistance at 1.5026 protects the upside, the trend remains lower towards 1.4700.


Trading recommendation:


We are neutral, but will buy EUR at 1.4725 with a stop at 1.4675.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for February 27 - 2015

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Technical summary:


The break below the support-line from 130.14 has forced us to consider wave (iv) as shown. The latter part of this count is very messy and we are still cautious as this mess quickly could turn into something entirely different. To make this count valid, we should stay below resistance at 135.37 for a clear break below support at 133.51, which would call for wave (v) lower towards the ideal target at 125.98. Only a break above 135.37 will keep the correction from 130.14 alive and call for a rally to 137.65 to end wave (iv) and set the stage for wave (v) lower.


Trading recommendations:


We are short EUR from 133.90 and will lower our stop to 135.45. EUR should only be sold near 134.65 or upon a break below 133.51 with the same stop at 135.45.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for February 27, 2015

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When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as Italian Prelim CPI m/m, Spanish Flash CPI y/y, French Consumer Spending m/m, German Prelim CPI m/m, and German Import Prices m/m. Besides, the US will release a batch of economic data such as the Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, Pending Home Sales m/m, Chicago PMI, Prelim GDP Price Index q/q, and Prelim GDP q/q. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1264.

Strong Resistance:1.1258.

Original Resistance: 1.1247.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1236.

Target Inner Area: 1.1210.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1184.

Original Support: 1.1173.

Strong Support: 1.1162.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1156.





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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for February 27, 2015

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In Asia, Japan will release the Housing Starts y/y, Retail Sales y/y, Prelim Industrial Production m/m, Unemployment Rate, National Core CPI y/y, Tokyo Core CPI y/y, and Household Spending y/y. The US will release a batch of economic reports such as Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, Pending Home Sales m/m, Chicago PMI, Prelim GDP Price Index q/q, and Prelim GDP q/q. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during the day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 119.83.

Resistance. 2: 119.60.

Resistance. 1: 119.37.

Support. 1: 119.08.

Support. 2: 118.85.

Support. 3: 118.61.





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Daily analysis of major pairs for February 27, 2015

EUR/USD: Yesterday, the EUR/USD pair regained momentum as the price broke downwards through the resistance lines at 1.1300 and 1.1200, resulting in a strong Bearish Confirmation Pattern. While it is possible that the price could touch the support lines at 1.1150 and 1.1100, there is a scenario of a significant rally along the way.


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USD/CHF: In contrast to what the EUR/USD pair was doing, this pair moved downwards. (Although its movement was not as significant as the movement on the EUR/USD pair). The USD/CHF pair rose upwards from the support level at 0.9450, almost reaching the resistance level at 0.9550. While the resistance level may be breached to the upside, the possibility of a bearish correction cannot also be overlooked.


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GBP/USD: The Cable has been weak in the short-term, but the weakness was not significant enough to override existing bullish outlook. Only a movement below the accumulation territory at 1.5300 could render the bullish outlook invalid.


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USD/JPY: Owing to the perceived strength in the USD, this currency trading instrument made a weak effort to go upwards yesterday. Unless the price crosses the supply level at 120.00 to the upside, it would be assumed that this market is still consolidating. One would need to keep one’s fingers crossed.


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EUR/JPY: This cross plunged on Thursday because of the great weakness in the EUR. The price dropped by over 150 pips, testing the demand zone at 133.50. The EMA 11 is now below the EMA 56 and the RSI period 14 is below the level 50. This is currently a bear market.


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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for February 27, 2015

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Overview :



  • The GBP/USD pair broke the supports of 1.5511 and 1.5478. Besides, the supports turned back to resistance on February 27, 2015. Therefore, the pair has already formed a strong support at the level of 1.5475 on H1 chart. In addition, after breaking 78.6%, the trend started signing for the bearish market at this level. It should be also noted that the price has been set below 78.6% of Fibonacci retracement levels, and the price couldn't close above the resistance this morning. The downward trend is still strong. Consequently, the pair is likely to go down because the downward trend is still strong from the levels of 1.5511 and 1.5478. Equally important, the RSI is still positive at the same time frame of H1, so it calls for a new downtrend today from the above-mentioned prices. According to the previous developments, the pair is still going to move between 1.5470 and 1.5339. Thus, it is a good sign to sell below 0.5480 with a first target of 1.5420, and continue towards 1.5380 and 1.5340 (1.5339: 38.2% of Fibonacci retracement levels). At the same time, the stop loss should be placed above the last top at the price of 1.5530, because in any case the stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts.


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for February 27, 2015

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Overview :



  • The market of the USD/CAD pair is continuing to show signs of strength following the break level of 1.2402. Besides, resistance of the USD/CAD pair broke and turned to support a month ago (26th of January 2015). It should be noted that the pair has already formed strong support at the level of 1.2402. Hence, the market indicates a bullish opportunity at the level of 1.2400/1.2390 with a first target at 1.2533 and continues towards 1.2594 which represents strong resistance on February 27, 2015. However, according to previous events, the price has still traded between 1.2402 and 1.2594. Thereupon, if the trend can break this level and close below the price of 1.2390, then we expect the market to gain a convincing downside momentum and the structure of the fall does not look corrective. For that reason, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity at the spot of 1.2594. As the price is below 1.2594, look for further downside with a target of 1.2420.


Intraday technical levels :


Date : 27/02/2015


Pair : USD/CAD



  • R3: 1.2627

  • R2: 1.2571

  • R1: 1.2536

  • PP: 1.2480

  • S1: 1.2424

  • S2: 1.2389

  • S3: 1.2333


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for February 26, 2015

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Fundamental Outlook:

USD/JPY is expected to range-trade. It is undermined by the soft dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 94.19 versus 94.47 early Wednesday) as Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen reiterated a cautious stance on interest rates on the second day of her semiannual testimony to lawmakers. USD/JPY is also weighed by the Japanese exports. But the USD/JPY downside is limited by demand from Japan's importers, the ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy, yen-funded carry trades amid diminished investor risk aversion after releses on HSBC China February flash manufacturing PMI of 50.1 (versus forecast 49.5) and 0.2% on-month drop in U.S. January new home sales to 481,000 (versus forecast 1.7% drop to 473,000).


Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as stochastics is turning bearish, but five-day moving average is meandering sideways.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 119.35 and the second target at 119.75. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 118.50. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 118.25. The pivot point is at 118.80.


Resistance levels:

119.35

119.75

120

Support levels:

118.50

118.25

117.95


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for February 26, 2015

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Fundamental overview:
USD/CHF is expected to trade with risks skewed lower. It is undermined by the soft dollar sentiment. But the USD/CHF losses are tempered by the franc sales on buoyant AUD/CHF, NZD/CHF, CAD/CHF crosses, the negative Swiss interest rates and the threat of the Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention.


Technical comment:
The daily chart is still positive-biased as the MACD and stochastics are bullish, although the latter is at overbought levels, five- and 15-day moving averages are advancing.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9580 and the second target at 0.958605. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9405. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.9365. The pivot point is at 0.9445.


Resistance levels:

0.9580

0.9605

0.9625


Support levels:

0.9405

0.9365

0.9325


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for February 26, 2015

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Fundamental overview:
NZD/USD is expected to trade in a higher range. It is supported by the soft dollar sentiment, stronger-than-expected HSBC China February flash manufacturing PMI, kiwi demand on buoyant NZD/JPY cross amid waning investor risk aversion and the New Zealand trade deficit of NZ$1.41 billion for the year ended Jan. 31 (versus forecast NZ$1.64 billion) and kiwi demand on retreating AUD/NZD cross and NZD-USD interest differential.


Technical comment:

The daily is chart positive-biased as the MACD is bullish, stochastics is reverting to bullish mode at overbought levels, five- and 15-day moving averages are advancing.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.7615 and the second target at 0.7655. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7495. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.7470. The pivot point is at 0.7530.


Resistance levels:

0.7615

0.7655

0.7690



Support levels:


0.7495

0.7470

0.7435


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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for Feburary 26, 2015

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Fundamental overview:
GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range. It is supported by the diminished investor risk aversion and demand from the Japanese importers. But the GBP/JPY gains are tempered by Japan's exports.


Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bullish, but stochastics is in bearish mode, inside-day-range pattern was completed on Wednesday.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 185.05 and the second target at 185.70. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 182.90. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 182.50. The pivot point is at 183.50.


Resistance levels:

185.05

185.70

186.15


Support levels:

182.90

182.50

182


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EUR/NZD analysis for February 26, 2015

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Overview:


In our last analysis EUR/NZD was trading downwards. The price has tested the level of 1.4923. The resistance level at the price of 1.5200 was held successfully and it caused price to start with downward movement. Our Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1.5050 is broken, so we may expect a lower price. I have placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential support levels and have got Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of 1.4865. Anyway, the mid-term selling EUR/NZD at this stage looks risky since we have the major long-term support around the price of 1.4785. My advice is to watch for potential bullish opportunities with better conditions. Any larger reaction from our support levels may confirm further phase.


Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.5132


R2: 1.5169


R3: 1.5229


Support levels:


S1: 1.5013


S2: 1.4976


S3: 1.4917


Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling at this stage and watch for potential buying opportunities after retracement (buy on the dips).




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Gold analysis for February 26, 2015

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Overview :


Since our last analysis gold has been trading upwards. As we expected, the price has tested the level of 1,219.18 in a volume above the average. We can observe successful rejection from our Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1,200.00 and it caused price to start with upward movement. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities.We have resistance level around the price of 1,235.00 (Fibonacci retracement 38.2%). According to the 4H time frame, we can observe demand in a volume above the average and successful rejection form intraday Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1,203.00.


Daily Fibonacci pivot points:


Resistance levels :


R1: 1,208.83


R2: 1,211.43


R3: 1,215.63


Support levels :


S1: 1,200.73


S2: 1,197.33


S3: 1,193.63


Trading recommendations: Watch for potential buying opportunities after retracement (buy on the dips).


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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for February 26, 2015

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Overview:


The daily closure below the recent bottoms located around 1.5540-1.5560 rendered the previous consolidation range as a bearish flag pattern with the projection target at 1.5300.


The market has already pushed further below reaching down to 1.5030-1.4980 where the lower limit of the channel provided support for the pair few weeks ago.


The H4 chart showed a transition phase into a sideways movement that has been maintained within the depicted price range.


On February 5, initial bullish breakout above 1.5220 took place. Shortly after, a new DAILY support was established around 1.5170-1.5200 (an ascending bottom, a sign of ongoing bullish momentum).


Since then, the GBP/USD pair has been trending upwards within the depicted H4 channel. Persistence of the pair above the recent DAILY support (the price zone of 1.5170-1.5200) applied extensive bullish pressure over the price level of 1.5360 (61.8% Fibonacci level on the H4 chart) which did not provide enough RESISTANCE.


The long-term projection target for the recent bullish breakout above 1.5220 is located around 1.5500-1.5550 where the previous DAILY bottoms are located (DAILY RESISTANCE).


Trading recommendations:


A valid SELL entry can be taken at retesting of the price level of 1.5550. SL should be located above 1.5600. TP levels to be placed at 1.5480, 1.5360 and finally at 1.5280.


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