GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 4, 2015

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Overview:

On April 9, the bearish trend was resumed towards the level of 1.4550 where a lower daily bottom, where the ongoing bullish swing was initiated, was reached.

A daily closure above 1.5060 exposed the next resistance levels at 1.5400 and 1.5450 where a temporary bearish pullback took place on April 29.

The next bullish swing extended up to the levels of 1.5750-1.5800, which offered traders few valid sell entries (depicted with red arrows). The final bearish target at 1.5450 was already reached.

Recently, strong bullish pressure was applied against the resistance levels around 1.5800 via the ongoing bullish swing.

That is why, the resistance level at 1.5800 was temporarily breached. Hence, GBP/USD bulls pursued towards 100% Fibonacci Expansion located around 1.5900 where the depicted successive lower highs were initiated.

Hence, the level of 1.5555 (prominent demand level/depicted uptrend line) got breached due to excessive bearish pressure. This enhanced the bearish side of the market towards 1.5360.

The level of 1.5555 (prominent demand level/depicted uptrend line) got breached earlier this month due to excessive bearish pressure. This enhanced the bearish side of the market towards 1.5360.

As suggested in our previous articles, a bullish pullback towards 1.5550-1.5600 was expected to take place shortly after.

Our suggested sell entry around 1.5600 got triggered. It is still trading around entry levels. Early exit should be considered if the current daily candlestick maintains its closure above 1.5600.

On the other hand, a better SELL entry with a lower risk/reward ratio will probably be offered around the price level of 1.5780 (the backside of the broken uptrend).

Bearish breakdown of the price level of 1.5550 gives another SELL signal with a higher risk/reward ratio.

Note that fixation below the price zone of 1.5550-1.5500 is mandatory to pursue towards lower bearish targets, initially at 1.5450.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for August 04, 2015

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USD/JPY is expected to move 123.80 with a bullish bias above. Currently, the US Dollar Index maintains its upward momentum trading at 97.582. It keeps on to depress commodities currencies. US crude oil prices dropped 4.1% closing at $45.17/bbl, while gold was down 0.9% and silver fell 1.9%. Meanwhile, the Australian central bank will announce its interest rate decision today. USD/JPY keeps on trading above the key support at 123.80 breaking above the 50-period intraday moving average. The intraday RSI has just landed on the neutral level of 50 and is turning up. The first upside target is set at 124.35 (around a high of July 31) and the second one at 124.60 (around the high of July 30). Only a break below 123.75 would turn the intraday outlookbearish and call for a decline toward 123.50 (around a low of July 31).

Technical comment:

The daily chart is still negative-biased as the MACD and stochastics are bearish, five-day moving average is below 15-day moving average and is declining.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price keeps above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 124.35 and the second target at 124.60. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 123.50. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 123.30. The pivot point is at 123.80.

Resistance levels: 124.35 124.60 124.85

Support levels: 123.50 123.30 122.85

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for August 04, 2015

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USD/CHF is expected to trade in a higher range. The pair extended its gains after confirming a bullish "V-bottom" reversal configuration. The intraday RSI is supported by a rising trendline, and the 20- and 50-period moving averages are turning up. Technical indicators favor further advance. As long as 0.9650 holds as the key support, look for an opportunity to bounce to 0.9740 and 0.97650.

Technical comment:

The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bearish, 5 and 15-day moving averages are falling but stochastics are turning bullish at oversold levels.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price keeps above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9740 and the second target at 0.9765. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.96. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.9570. The pivot point is at 0.9650.

Resistance levels: 0.9740 0.9765 0.98

Support levels: 0.96 0.9570 0.9545

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for August 04, 2015

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NZD/USD is expected to trade in a higher range. The pair failed to break above its intraday resistance at 0.6620, and reversed down on an intraday basis. The intraday RSI is below its neutrality level of 50 with a negative bias. Moreover, a bearish cross between the 20- and 50-period intraday MAs has been identified, which should confirm a negative view. As long as 0.6550 is not surpassed, look for further upside to 0.6620 and 0.6660 in extension.

Technical comment: The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is in bullish mode, but stochastics is neutral.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price keeps above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6620 and the second target at 0.6660. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.65. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.6455. The pivot point is at 0.6550.

Resistance levels: 0.6620 0.6660 0.6695

Support levels: 0.65 0.6455 0.64

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for August 04, 2015

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish bias. The pair stays above its key support at 193. Both descending 20-period and 50-period intraday MAs act as resistance levels. And the intraday RSI is below 50 lacking upward momentum. The first upside target is set at the horizontal resistance and overlap at 194.60 (around the high of July 30). A break above this level would open the way to further strengthening towards 95.20.

Technical comment: The daily chart is negative-biased as the MACD and stochastics are bearish, five-day moving average is falling below 15-day moving average.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price keeps above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 194.60 and the second target at 195.20. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 192.45. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 191.90. The pivot point is at 193.

Resistance levels: 194.60 195.20 196

Support levels: 192.45 191.90 191.35

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 4, 2015

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Overview:

When bulls pushed the price further above 79.6% Fibonacci level, the market looked quite overbought. That is why, the price failed to hold above 1.2650 - 1.2680 (previous highs) resulting in a formation of successive lower highs (within the depicted consolidation zone) enhancing the bearish side of the market.

Daily fixation below 1.2300 opened a way towards the levels of 1.2000 and 1.1940 (the depicted weekly uptrend).

Bullish support was found around these levels. Successive higher lows were established. Bullish pressure was applied against the resistance levels of 1.2450 and 1.2500 (previous tops).

On the other hand, the previous weekly candlestick came frank bullish. That is why, an extensive bullish movement is seen on the chart.

A bullish breakout above the price zone of 1.2770-1.2800 has been executed.

Earlier, signs of lack of bullish momentum were manifested on the chart. A bearish corrective movement was initiated towards the levels of 1.2900-1.2850.

However, a new bullish swing is taking place today, especially after Friday's bullish engulfing candlestick.

The long-term bullish projection target would be located at the level of 1.3270 if enough bullish support is maintained.

Trading recommendations:

Traders can wait for a bearish pullback towards the recent breakout zone (1.2800-1.2750) for a valid buy entry as the Breakout level constitutes the recent support.

Stop Loss should be located below the level of 1.2700.

T/P levels should be located at 1.2850 and 1.2900.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for August 4, 2015

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Two months ago, the market was pushed above the weekly key zone around 1.5550 in an attempt to reach the area around 1.5900, which provided evident supply for the GBP/USD pair.

As anticipated, a bearish pullback was executed towards the level of 1.5550. A bearish breakout below 1.5500 took place two weeks ago.

Last week, strong bearish pressure was applied to the level of 1.5550 again. It was breached temporarily until this week's bullish recovery emerged.

Contradictory signals are coming from consecutive weekly candlesticks. This indicates lack of bearish momentum below 1.5500.

The previous weekly candlestick closure above 1.5500 hindered the further bearish decline and enhanced the bullish side of the market pushing the price to at least 1.5770 (61.8% Fibonacci level).

On the other hand, the nearest demand level around 1.5200 will become exposed if GBP/USD bears manage to close below the level of 1.5500 (low probability).

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Previously, the price zone of 1.5800-1.5880 acted as significant supply. It offered a valid sell entry few weeks ago. All T/P levels were successfully reached.

On the other hand, the level of 1.5550, which corresponds to 50% Fibonacci level and a previous prominent top, was temporarily broken allowing further bearish decline towards 1.5350 where an ascending bottom was recently established.

Last week, strong bullish price actions were expressed. A bullish pullback towards 1.5600 took place. The level of 1.5550 was breached during last week's consolidations.

However, Thursday's candlestick came as a bearish engulfing one, which enhanced the bearish side of the market.

That is why, the level of 1.5550 constitutes a significant key level to be watched for a price action.

A quick bearish decline towards 1.5470 and 1.5370 should be expected only if the level of 1.5550 gets broken to the downside again.

On the other hand, the level of 1.5770 (61.8% Fibonacci level) is the next supply level to be watched if bullish fixation above the key level of 1.5550 persists on the daily chart.

If so, a counter-trend intraday sell entry can be offered at retesting of the level of 1.5770.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for August 4, 2015

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The market was pushed lower after breaking below major demand levels around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously hit back in July 2012 and June 2010.

EUR/USD bears have already pushed the price slightly below the monthly demand level at 1.0550 (established on January 1997). Bullish recovery was expressed shortly after.

April's monthly candlestick came as a bullish engulfing one. However, the next monthly candlesticks (May, June, and July) reflect recent bearish rejection being expressed around 1.1450.

In the long term, a projection target is still located at 0.9450 if a bearish breakdown of the monthly demand level at 1.0550 occurs soon.

A bullish corrective movement towards 1.1500 will be possible only if May's monthly high of 1.1465 gets breached (a low probability).

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After such a long bearish rally, which had started around the levels of 1.1300, bullish rejection took place at 1.0570 (monthly demand level).

Multiple ascending bottoms were established around the levels of 1.0470, 1.0550, and 1.0850. These levels corresponded to the daily uptrend depicted on the chart.

Further bullish pressure was observed until bearish rejection was applied around 1.1400 (long-term double-top reversal pattern).

A daily closure below the level of 1.1150 brought EUR/USD to the mark of 1.1000 again.

A bearish daily closure below 1.0950 enabled a quick bearish decline towards 1.0850 and 1.0750.

Evident bullish recovery was expressed last week after hitting the level of 1.0800. Bulls have been trying to bring a bullish corrective movement towards 1.1000 and 1.1100.

Previously, the level of 1.1100 where the backside of the broken uptrend was located, had been visited few times including last Friday. However, significant bearish rejection was expressed both times.

As long as the market keeps trading below their recent supply levels around 1.1000, the depicted Double-Top pattern remains valid. Projection target extends down to 1.0600.

Trading recommendations:

Conservative traders could have waited for a bullish pullback towards the recently established supply zone of 1.1100-1.1150 for a valid sell entry. S/L should be lowered to 1.1170.

T/P levels should be located at 1.0990, 1.0850, and 1.0700.

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EUR/JPY technical analysis for August 04, 2015

During the period between July 20 and July 27, the EUR/JPY pair managed to nosedive and recover consistently, forming a bearish divergence while the rate was rising. On July 29, the pair broke below the downtrend trendline. After the breakout, it failed to test the 61.8 Fibonacci resistance level applied to a low hit on July 20 and a high reached on July 31. After that, the pair rushed up to form a double top.

Bearish divergence, trendline breakout, and the double top formation suggest that the trend down was established. At the same time, the pair is trading right at the upper trendline of the descending channel being about to test the 38.2% Fibonacci resistance level.

Consider selling EUR/JPY while it is trading between the current rate (136.11) and R1 (136.18) targeting 161.8% Fibonacci retracement applied to the last wave up before the trendline breakout (24.07 low and 27.07 high). A daily close above this level could be used as a signal to liquidate short positions.

Support: 135.47 and 134.55

Resistance: 136.18

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for August 4-7, 2015

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Review:

  • GBP/USD: The price of 1.5566 coincides with the ratio of 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels. The minor support has set at the level of 1.5566. Thus, we expect a short bullish market from the level of 1.5566 on the H1 chart. Therefore, the market is going to call for an uptrend from the level of 1.5666. Hence, buy above the level of 1.5566 in the short term with the first target of 1.5546, if the trend can break the minor resistance at the level of 1.5546, it might resume to 1.5712.

Observations:

  • We expect a range about 201 pips (1.5512 - 1.5713) in coming days.
  • The weekly support 1 will set at 1.5513.
  • The risk of 67 pips must make a profit of 201 pips.
  • The value of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels is 1.5613.
  • The weekly pivot point will be set at the price of 1.5601.
  • The level of 1.5620 will confirm the bullish market.
  • It should be noted that the weekly range was not very large for the last four weeks (around 199 pips only). According to our statistics, it was found out that the range was between 310 pips and 200 pips and the average range was around 252 pips.
  • Volatility was 310,23 as usually the market is highly volatile if the last day has a huge volatility.

The weekly tchnical analysis of GBP/USD pair:

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for August 4-7, 2015

The weekly technical analysis of EUR/USD pair:

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Overview:

  • The price of the EUR/USD pair is still trading between the levels of 1.0892 and 1.1038 (golden ratio). The levels of 1.1001 and 1.0875 are representing the weekly pivot point and support 1, respectively. But, it will be very profitable to sell below the level of 1.1038 which represents the minor resistance on the H1 chart with the first target at 1.0892 in order to test the double bottom. Then, the trend will be able to continue toward the levels of 1.0875 (the weekly support 1 is set at the price of 1.0875). Besides, the monthly doubel bottom coincides with the price of 1.0860. Nevertheless, the stop loss should be set at 1.1060 (above the resistance).
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Gold : analysis for August 04 , 2015

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Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $1,094.71. According to the daily time frame, we can observe weak supply and small real body. We can observe a volume spike (buying climax) followed by supply (sign of weakness) in the background. Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the level of $1,094.00 is on the test. According to the 30M time frame, we can observe the buying climax (potential hidden selling).

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels

R1: 1,095.00

R2: 1,099.00

R3: 1,104.00

Support levels:

S1: 1,085.50

S2: 1,082.30

S3: 1,078.00

Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying gold at this stage since we have a fake buying climax in the background.

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EUR/NZD analysis for August 04, 2015

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Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving sideways around the price of 1.6620. In the daily time frame, we can observe a weak demand bar in a volume below the average (sign of the weakness). The price rejected from our major resistance level (1.6805). According to the M15 timeframe, we can observe few buying climax actions (potential sellers.) The short-term trend has changed from bullish to neutral. Be careful when buying EUR/NZD at this stage and watch for potential selling opportunities. Our upward trendline got broken in the background which is another sign of weakness.

Fibonacci Pivot Points :

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6695

R2: 1.6720

R3: 1.6755

Support levels:

S1: 1.6610

S2: 1.6595

S3: 1.6655

Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying EUR/NZD and watch for potential selling opportunities. Strong resistance is around the level of 1.6805.

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Global macro overview for 04/08/2015

Global marco overview for 04/08/2015:

The Rereve Bank of Australia has decided overnight to leave the main interest rate unchanged at the level of 2%. The market was not surprised as the forecast of 2% was exactly in line with the data release. The more interesting clues for a further RBA monetary policy comes from the central bank Governor Glenn Stevens' statement issued with the report. In this statement he wrote that the exchange rate is adjusting to the significant declines in key commodity prices indicating that the current exchange is not too high at all and it might decrease even further.

After the RBA decision, the AUD/USD pair has jumped 1% and is currently trading at the level of 0.7371, which is a previous resistance level. Any breakout higher with a daily candle close above the resistance level might suggest a possible golden trendline test from the downside. Amid the upcoming correction, the mid-term and long-term bias is bearish.

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Global macro overview for 04/08/2015

Global marco overview for 04/08/2015:

The poor Chinese PMI data from Monday (47.8 vs. 48.3, 48.2 prior) was the main cause of the continuing crude oil sell-off. The difficult situation of the Chinese manufacturing and the government inability to overcome the recent stock market crash have created an uncertainty wave in the country. The commodity-related currencies are slipping as well, along with the commodities like copper (six-year low), crude oil (Brent oil is $4 above 2015 lows), silver, and gold.

From the technical point of view, the crude oil has taken out some important technical supports and the downside momentum remains in its favor. The next very important support is at the level of 41.98, the resistance is at the level of 46.67.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for August 4, 2015

General overview for 04/08/2015 08:40 CET

The market behave as anticipated going to test the intraday support at the level of 135.53. Currently, the level of 135.90 is being tested from the downside and the black-dashed channel trendline is the most important dynamic resistance today. The downward wave progression does not looks completed and the projected target is still at the wave Y brown at the level of 135.15.

Support/Resistance:

136.91 - WR1

136.24 - Weekly Pivot

135.90 - Intraday Resistance

135.53 - Intraday Support (strong)

135.15 - WS1

134.42 - WS2

Trading recommendations:

Yesterdays, sell orders hit the TP level and it looks like the market might give traders one more opportunity to open the same sell orders again: sell entry is seen at the level of 135.90 with SL just above the level and TP at the level of 135.51.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for August 4, 2015

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD pair moved slightly lower yesterday, generating a bearish signal in the market. There is a possibility that the support line at 1.0900 would be tested today or tomorrow (it might even be breached to the downside). The price action shows that the pair still has much room to go south.

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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF pair moved slightly upwards yesterday, leading to a continuation of a bullish signal. The resistance level at 0.9700 was tested last week without the price being able to breach it to the upside. The price is now very close to that resistance level, and with persistent buying pressure, may go above it. A failure to do that may signal the end of a bullish bias, because the price must go further upwards for the bullish bias to make sense.

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GBP/USD: Volatility is currently high on the market, without bulls or bears gaining the upper hand. The price will either break above the distribution territory at 1.5650 or break below the accumulation territory at 1.5550. A breakout to the downside is the most likely.

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USD/JPY: The USD/JPY pair moved sideways so far between the supply level of 124.50 and demand level of 123.00. This shows that the market is currently consolidating, and therefore, there would be a breakout to the upside or to the downside soon. In order to put an end to the current consolidation, there must be a breakout above the supply level at 124.50 or a breakout below the demand level at 123.00.

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EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY pair is still characterized by high volatility, swinging higher and lower in the context of an uptrend (things are now becoming a little choppy). The supply zones at 137.50 and 138.00 could be tested this week, though there are also demand zones around 135.50 and 135.00. A movement below the demand zone could result in a bearish bias.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for August 4, 2015

General overview for 04/08/2015 08:40 CET

The upward wave progression did not hit the projected target level yet, but the move is still possible. The intraday support at the level of 1.3110 is the key level to the upside, because any breakout lower would expose the weekly pivot at the level of 1.3031 to test.

Support/Resistance:

1.3205 - WR1

1.3176 - Intraday Resistance

1.3114 - Intraday Support

1.3011 - Weekly Pivot

Trading recommendations:

Swingtraders should consider closing all mid-term and long-term buy orders as the upward cycle might be topping soon. Please wait for another buy opportunity to come when the downward corrective cycle is completed.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 4, 2015

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Technical summary:

We continue to look for upside acceleration towards 1.7277 as the next upside target. In the short term, we need a break above minor resistance at 1.6740 and of cause more importantly a break above resistance at 1.6826 confirming a rally higher to 1.6995 on the way towards 1.7277.

Short-term support is found at 1.6616 and at 1.6555 again.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.6603 with stop placed at 1.6370. If you are not long EUR yet, buy on a break above 1.6826.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for August 04, 2015

Lower oil prices push CAD to much more lower levels heading towards 1.3176.

IMPACT ON USD:

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in July for the 31st consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 74th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives.

Ahead of tomorrow's key events (the US ADP non-farm employment change, trade balance, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, and Canada's trade balance) the pair is trading at higher levels with highly overbought indicators. Before further move up, we expect the price to correct a bit.

Technical view: The pair reached a high of 1.3176. At today's Asian session, the pair was unable to breach the previous day's double top. In case of a daily close above 1.3180, bulls will move towards 1.3260 and 1.3320 again . Monthly resistance is seen at 1.3180 and 1.3380. In all time frame intervals, oscillators look overbought.

Intraday buying is available above 1.3180 with targets at 1.3200, 1.3230, and 1.3260.

Sell below 1.3090. Overbought indicators favor selling at higher levels of 1.3260-1.3300.

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USDX technical analysis for August 4, 2015

The US dollar index is showing some signs of weakness as it has approached short-term resistance levels. The USDX is inside a big triangle pattern and as long as we see no breakout above the 98 level, bulls should be very cautious.

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Green lines - triangle pattern

The US dollar index is being rejected at the upper resistance trendline of the triangle. The price is above the Ichimoku cloud. Support is at 97 and if it is broken, we could see a push towards 96.50, which is the most important short-term support. Resistance is found at 97.70-97.75 and in case of its break, we could see a push higher towards 98-98.20.

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Red line - resistance trendline

Green line - support trendline

The weekly chart is showing the upward bounce from 96 has stopped at the red trendline resistance. More buyers are needed to break this resistance. There is still more sellers than buyers, and it has stopped the upward move. The battle between bulls and bears is strong in this area and that is why we are making a sideways move and no clear trending move. I believe the best strategy is to be neutral and wait. Patience is a virtue.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 4, 2015

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Technical summary:

EUR/JPY is testing support at 135.49 again. This support should be held for a new rally above minor resistance at 136.45, which will call for a new test of 137.35 and even 137.80. Only above the later, it will open up the upside for a continuation towards 141.06 and 144.03. There is still an opportunity of a break below 135.49 that would add downside pressure for a test of support at 134.28 and more importantly at 133.27. Below there, it will call for 130.00.

Trading recommendation:

We are still long EUR from 134.07 and stop placed at 135.40. If you are not long EUR yet, then only buy upon a break above 137.80.

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Gold technical analysis for August 4, 2015

The gold price is trading in a sideways pattern. The short-term trend is neutral as the gold price has formed a sideways triangle pattern confirming the recent consolidation and trading range it is in. Breaking above $1,105 can give a push towards $1,115-$1,130; and a break below $1,077 will bring in more sellers towards $1,050-40.

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Blue line - bearish trendline resistance

Green lines - triangle pattern

The gold price is below the Ichimoku cloud and below the blue trendline resistance. The gold price is inside a trading range that has created a triangle pattern. A breakout of this pattern will push the price towards $1,120 or $1,050-40.

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Blue line - long-term trendline support (broken)

The weekly chart remains bearish, The chances for a push higher towards $1,130 or higher have decreased as the gold price is making a sideways correction and not an upward bounce. Longer-term targets remain towards $1,040 or even $980.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for August 04, 2015

The UK's manufacturing PMI data was unable to support the pound, erased Friday's gains. The triple top is formed between 1.5675 and 1.5700.

IMPACT ON GBP:

The UK manufacturing sector remain relatively subdued in the third quarter. Although the headline seasonally adjusted Markit/CIPS Purchasing Manager's Index edged higher to 51.9 in July from a 26-month low of 51.4 in June, it remained below the average for the current sequence of growth that began in April 2013 (54.3).

IMPACT ON USD:

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in July for the 31st consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 74th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives.

Technical overview:

Outlook: Earlier the cable made a strong ceiling at 1.5700. The cable broke the 3-month ascending trendline, but it is still trading below that. In the four-hour chart, the cable fell below the bearish h&s pattern.

Bullish developments: The cable has been reaching higher lows in the weekly chart; support is found at 1.5450. The weekly trading pattern is framed between 1.5450 and 1.5700. After 5 weeks, the cable has finally closed above 50Wsma. In case of a daily close above 1.5700, bulls will head towards 1.5780 in a day or two.

Moving averages: The 20& 50Dsma is found at 1.5550, 100Dema is found at 1.5470, 200Dsma is found at 1.5400, 20Wsma is seen at 1.5380, and 100Dsma is found at 1.5320.

Intraday: Intraday resistance is seen at 1.5600, 1.5620, and 1.5650. Support is found at 1.5580, 1.5560, and 1.5550.

Selling is available below 1.5550 with an initial target at 1.5530 and 1.5490 and 1.5470 later. Selling is expected to accelerate only below 1.5530 and trend will change below 1.5440.

Whenever the cable touches the zones of 1.5675 and 1.5700, it will hit a lower low. This time, we can expect 1.5450 or 1.5410. A daily close above 1.5700 will enable bulls to aim for 1.5780 in a day or two.

GBPUSDH4.png

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for August 04, 2015

Friday's spikes towards 1.1114 ended below 20Dsma at yesterday's session as well the pair rejected at 20Dsma. The pair closed below 20Wsma found at 1.1050.

EURO:

Growth in the Spanish manufacturing sector continued easing in July. The Markit Spain Manufacturing PMI new order growth slowed down to its 17-month low. The seasonally adjusted PMI posted 53.6 in July down from 54.5 in June to signal the slowest improvement in operating conditions since last October.

IMF official: the IMF and Greece has not reached an agreement on a new debt plan yet. Greece and Europe are ready to make the relevant decisions. The IMF officials can only support a comprehensive rescue package for Greece. The IMF Board of Directors authorized to discuss arrangements for a new Greek aid plan next Wednesday.

IMPACT ON USD:

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in July for the 31st consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 74th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives.

Technical view:

In the four-hour chart, the pair has been trading in an ascending bearish channel, rejected at the upper end of the trendline willing to go further down. In case of a daily close above 1.1130, fresh longs will be added to the system.

Until the pair trades below 1.1000, intraday trade favors selling on a rise. The supply zone remains at higher levels between 1.1085 and 1.1100 50Dsma. Until the price closes below 1.1100, sell on a rise. We had already recommended the same strategy and Friday's session proved that the strategy remains valid in the near term. Monthly support is found at 1.0730.

Intraday resistance is seen at 1.0970, 1.1000, and 1.1030. Support is found at 1.0920, 1.0890, and 1.0850. In case the pair lost 1.0850 selling will accelerate.

Intraday selling is available below 1.0930 with targets at 1.0900, 1.0870, and 1.0850. Risky buying is available above 1.1000 with targets at 1.1030, 1.1050, and 1.1080.

EURUSDH1.png

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Technical analysis of Gold for August 04, 2015

The brand new month and week had started with buying, but the day ended with losses. At yesterday's session, the metal re-tested the level of 1085.00 once again. It managed to close above 1085.00 for the second consecutive week.

A trading pattern has been framed in a tight range of 35$ between 1077.00-1112.00 on an intraday basis and 1085.00-1105.00 on a closing basis.

Barclays and Blackrock expect the interest rate hike in September, but Goldman Sachs and BNP Paribas expect it to be postponed until December. Finally, the rate hike is imminent. We guess the rate hike event is likely to influence gold prices.

Technical view:

The yellow metal was trading at $1,085.40 during today's Asian session, compared to Monday's closing price of 1086.40. In the weekly chart, the metal managed to hold the channel support trendline at $1,085.00 on a closing basis. The metal has been reaching lower highs and lower lows breaking below the large bearish head & shoulder pattern.

The weekly support is found at $1,085.00, $1,077.00, and $1,073.00. A weekly close below $1,085.00 opens gates to $1,068.00 initially. It is likely to extend towards $1,045.00 and $1,005.00 later. In the monthly chart, strong support zone is seen between $1,045.00 and $1,032.00. The metal fell below the 14-year ascending trendline in the monthly chart. It managed to close above $1,085.00 on a daily closing basis for eleven consecutive days.

A daily close below $1,085.00 opens gates to $1,077.00 initially and $1,065.00 and $1,055.00 later.

Intraday: Intraday support is found at $1,082.00, $1080.00, and $1,077.00. Resistance is seen at $1,087.00, $1,090.00, and $1,093.00.

The metal has been reaching lower lows in the four-hour chart. The metal made a triple top at $1,105.00.

At yesterday's session, we opened a selling trade below $1,089.00 with an initial target at $1,085.00. The metal hit a low at 1085.00. We guess the metal is likely to hold the support between 1082.00 and 1080.00 today bouncing towards $1,090.00 or $1,092.00 Panic will be triggered below $1,077.00. The metal is unlikely to fall below $1,077.00. Use a rise to sell favoring the trend.

Buying is available above $1,093.00 with targets at $1,095.00 and $1,097.00. Strong buying momentum will take place above $1,098.00 towards $1,100.00, $1,103.00, and $1,105.00. Real strength is expected only above $1,105.00 towards $1,110.00 and even $1,112.00.

GOLDH1.png

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Technical analysis of Silver for August 04, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver is trading at a low of $14.48 at the moment, testing the recent bottom formed around $14.40/50 before perfoming reversal. Please note that this rally could be just treated as a counter trend rally that could possibly fade away around $15.30, which is a fibonacci resistance as shown here. It is therefore recommended to remain bullish now with risk at $14.25. Immediate support is seen at $14.40/50 followed by $14.00, $13.00, and lower while resistance is seen at $15.30 followed by $15.90/$16.00 and higher.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long for now, stop is at $14.25, a target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Gold for August 04, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold is testing recent lows around the levels of $1,080.00 again before rallying towards the levels of $1,130.00/32.00. Please note that this could be a corrective relief rally for the yellow metal. It is likely to face resistance around $1,130.00/32.00 (trendline and fibonacci). It is hence recommended to remain long with risk at the levels of $1,070.00. Immediate support is seen at the levels of $1,075.00 followed by $1,052.00, $1,030.00, and lower, while resistance is seen at $1,105.00 (interim) followed by $1,130.00/32.00 (fibonacci), $1,175.00, and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long for now, stop is at $1,070.00, a target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for August 04, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY pair is seen to be in a broad consolidation (cone type) range at the moment as depicted here. Furthermore, the pair has tested support at 135.00 and bounced off last week, indicating a push towards at least 137.00. Bulls are expected to remain in control until prices stay above 135.00. It is hence recommended to remain long with risk at 134.00 at the moment. Immediate support is seen at 134.00, followed by 133.00 and lower, while resistance is seen at the levels of 138.00/139.00 followed by 140.00, 141.00, and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long for now, stop is at 134.00, a target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for August 04, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/CHF pair for an opportunity to test interim resistance at the levels of 1.5140/50 again before reversing lower. Please note that the pair had produced an engulfing bearish candlestick around 1.5140 earlier, indicating a potential reversal/correction lower. The 3rd wave of correction could be extending towards 1.4750. It is recommended to remain short now with risk at 1.5230/40. Immediate interim support is seen at the level of 1.4950 followed by 1.4750 and lower, while resistance is seen at 1.5180/1.5200 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short for now, stop is at 1.5230, a target is 1.4750.

Good luck!

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Daily analysis of USDX for August 04, 2015

On the daily chart, the USDX is still moving inside a bullish bias which is still alive, as the Index continues to trade above the support level of 96.57. That's why a breakout above 97.57 shouldn't be discarded yet, but eventually, the USDX could perform a pullback towards the support zone around 96.57. The MACD indicator is entering in the neutral territory.

USDXDaily.png

The Index is still bullish, after a false consolidation which took place below the 200 SMA on the H1 chart. The USDX is looking to break the resistance level of 97.65, sellers are very strong. The 200 SMA is slightly bullish, but the MACD indicator could enter in the negative territory.

USDXH1.png

Daily chart's resistance levels: 97.57 / 98.29

Daily chart's support levels: 96.57 / 95.63

H1 chart's resistance levels: 97.65 / 98.09

H1 chart's support levels: 97.12 / 96.73

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the US Dollar Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 97.12, take profit is at 96.73, and stop loss is at 97.50.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for August 04, 2015

There is still a battle between bulls and bears inside the range of 1.5640 - 1.5543 on the daily chart. That is why we still expect strong reaction when a breakout happens around the resistance level of 1.5640. That would open the next higher target until the level of 1.5777. The MACD indicator is still at neutral territory.

GBPUSDDaily.png

GBP/USD still moving to the dynamic support at 200 SMA where it should make a rebound in order to ride the current bullish bias and reach new highs. Still we are expecting a breakout over the resistance level of 1.5633. If that happens, then the pair will reach the 1.5664 zone. This would be invalidated by a breakout of a low hit back on July 31.

GBPUSDH1.png

Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5640 / 1.5777

Daily chart's support levels: 1.5543 / 1.5450

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5633 / 1.5664

H1 chart's support levels: 1.5587 / 1.5562

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.5633, take profit is at 1.5664, and stop loss is at 1.5602.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for August 04, 2015

!_EURUSD.jpg

When the European market opens, some data on the PPI m/m and Spanish Unemployment Change is due.The US will release data on the Loan Officer Survey, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, and Factory Orders m/m. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1004.

Strong Resistance:1.0998.

Original Resistance: 1.0987.

Inner Sell Area: 1.0976.

Target Inner Area: 1.0951.

Inner Buy Area: 1.0926.

Original Support: 1.0915.

Strong Support: 1.0904.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.0898.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for August 04, 2015

!_USDJPY.jpg

In Asia, Japan will release the 10-y Bond Auction, Average Cash Earnings y/y, and Monetary Base y/y. The US will release some economic data such on the Loan Officer Survey, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, and Factory Orders m/m. So, there is a strong probability that USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during the day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 124.64.

Resistance. 2: 124.39.

Resistance. 1: 124.15.

Support. 1: 123.86.

Support. 2: 123.61.

Support. 3: 123.37.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com