Trading plan for April 23, 2020. EUR/USD. Markets came to life: Oil, US market. Weekly US unemployment report to be published.

WTI oil rebounded after a hike of $ -37:

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Brent quotes rose from $ 20 up to $ 22. Oil companies are dissatisfied, but $ 22 is still much better than $ -2, which was the case of Urals oil on April 20.

The US market met resistance on the way up - at the level of moving averages commonly used by large investors:

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The US economy is not expecting any positive macroeconomic reports.

Weekly report on US unemployment to come out at 13:30 London time - new 5 million unemployed and 17 million long-term unemployed is expected.

The US market is relying on a good downward movement.

Coronavirus update:

Europe is beginning to lift quarantine. Stores have opened in Berlin, so as in Italy and Spain. Other countries will open in early to mid-May. Borders, on the other hand, will remain closed.

Europe's coronavirus situation is stabilizing. Infection rate in Italy, Spain and France has dwindled. Daily deaths fell below 550.

Britain's situation, on the other hand, is worse - almost 800 deaths per day and is holding on.

The US coronavirus cases is huge - 849,000 (10 times more than China's and about the same as in all major Western Europe countries combined). Infection rate is 30,000 per day, which is less than 4%. Daily fatality is reduced from a maximum of 2,340.

Why is there such a disaster in the US? Because of delayed quarantine that was introduced when the number of cases was already 20 thousand.

EUR / USD:

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Sell euros from 1.0810, stop at 1.0855.

In case of a rebound, purchase euros from 1.0900.

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Trading idea for USD/JPY

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Good afternoon! A trading idea for USD / JPY:

Continuation of the plan recommended last April 20 .

The boundaries of the channel 108 and 106.9 remain. The USD / JPY pair has been trading in it for 5 days. Footsteps of players accumulated along the borders:

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Trigger a false breakout of 108 down to set shorts. Hold to the bottom of the 106.9 channel. Movement will be more than 1000p. Limit risks to a ratio of 1/3.

This trading idea is based on "Price Action" and "Stop Hunting" methods.

Good luck!

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How outcome of EU summit and PMI data can affect euro and pound?

Signals for the EUR/USD pair:

The euro can increase to the area of 1.0853 and 1.0895, if the price breaks through the level of 1.0819.

A breakthrough at 1.0805 is likely to lead to a sell-off of the euro at 1.0770 and 1.0718.

Signals for the GBP/USD pair:

It the price breaks through the level of 1.2350, the British pound is likely to grow to 1.2417 and 1.2476

A breakthrough at 1.2298 may lead to a sell-off of the pound at 1.2245 and 1.2173

Fundamental data:

A series of composite PMI reports from Germany, France, the eurozone, and the UK are set for release today. Apart from that, the US will publish its initial jobless claims and manufacturing PMI figures.

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EUR/USD. Main focus on the online meeting of EU leaders

The euro-dollar pair is trading at the bottom of the eighth figure, once again falling below the 1.0850 mark. This price barrier is not the first time that EUR/USD bears have broken over the past two weeks – but all attempts to go below fail. However, according to today's results, the pair will either settle in the area of the seventh figure, or return to the ninth. And it's not just the macroeconomic statistics that will be published today in Europe and the US – the market is primarily waiting for the results of the online summit of EU leaders. The debate is expected to be heated, and the results are unpredictable, despite the optimistic assessments of most experts.

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During the current week, the EUR/USD pair showed a sluggish bearish mood due to the general strengthening of the US currency. The dollar index is still staying above the 100-point value against the background of recent events in the oil market. But, first, oil quotes have slightly recovered (especially after Trump ordered the Navy commander to shoot at Iranian vessels if necessary), and secondly, the dollar itself is under pressure from an ambiguous fundamental background. Therefore, dollar bulls could not organize a rally – they showed themselves more clearly in pairs with commodity currencies, but in other pairs they only indicated their presence. For example, the dollar was able to strengthen by only 70-80 points against the euro.

Further downward dynamics depends on two factors: first, the overall level of anti-risk sentiment in the market, and second, the results of today's online summit of the EU countries.

As for the first point, it is worth noting one interesting fact – the market is no longer responding to the daily increase in the number of Covid-19 cases, focusing only on the economic consequences of the global lockdown. For example, according to the latest data, 79,959 coronavirus infections were diagnosed in the world - this is 3,000 more cases than on April 21. Such dynamics were recorded after the head of the World Health Organization Tedros Aden Gebreyesus stated that a pandemic of the novel coronavirus is accelerating. But, as we can see, the protective assets of the currency market reacted poorly to this news, although a few weeks ago such news would have provoked strong volatility. While now traders are more interested in news about the development of a vaccine or drug against Covid-19. Scientists from around the world (in particular, the UK, China, Turkey, Australia and the United States) report some progress in this direction, and this fact to some extent reduces concerns about the further spread of the virus. Due to these circumstances, the protective assets of the currency market behave quite passively. The dollar included, around which there is no longer the past hype.

Therefore, the euro will be the main engine of the medium-term movement of the EUR/USD. The results of today's summit of EU leaders will either send the pair into a knockdown, or help return it to the area of the ninth figure.

Let me remind you that not so long ago, members of the Eurogroup agreed on a package of assistance for 540 billion euros. Today, European leaders will try to agree on a recovery plan worth 2.2 trillion euros for the eurozone economy. And it should be noted here that the agreement that was reached earlier does not mention the use of joint debt to finance recovery, that is, the notorious crown bonds.

Representatives of the southern countries of Europe, Italy, France and Spain, strongly insisted on the introduction of crown bonds. But representatives of northern Europe - Germany, the Netherlands, Finland, Estonia were categorically against this idea. As you can see, according to the results of this confrontation, the north prevailed over the south. This means that today EU leaders will have complex discussions on this issue.

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On the eve of the second round of negotiations, Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte made a rather harsh statement - according to him, the European integration project will be "threatened" if the EU countries do not agree on an economic response to the coronavirus pandemic. At the same time, he zealously defends the idea of introducing crown bonds - at the first online summit, he very emotionally discussed this with his colleagues, but he could not convince them. Given this disposition, it can be assumed that the next online summit will not be a simple formality: representatives of the south will probably raise the issue of crown bonds again, which they have been insisting for a long time. According to available information, even the term crown bonds was excluded from the documents in order to avoid unnecessary irritation.

In other words, the sharp differences between the EU's north and south can put serious pressure on the euro. If European leaders do not approve of the pandemic crisis and recovery roadmap today, then not only will the EUR/USD pair test the seventh figure, but it could also go down to the support level of 1.0730 (the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart). A correctional pullback to 1.0910 is possible if today's dialogue ends on a major note - the middle line of Bollinger Bands and the lines of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen (on D1) are connected in this price area.

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Trump ready to fight over oil

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WTI quotes plummeted in just a few days, which caused many to doubt whether the market will recover at all. According to IHS Markit, about 1.75 million barrels per day is at risk of closure, and new wells that were projected to be put into operation by the end of the year will be reduced by almost 90%.

The shale revolution, which Trump called "American energy domination" back last year, may very well come to an end.

Even at a price of $ 15 per barrel, companies are still on the verge of losing money. The cost is still very much higher than demand. "At this price, you will begin to close large volumes of production," said Raoul LeBlanc, analyst at IHS Markit-Houston.

To date, 51,000 workers have already been laid off, lowered salaries, or sent into retirement.

"The US oil market risks deterioration next month," said veteran analyst Paul Sankey. Manufacturers "have nowhere to go with inexorable production, which is reduced to zero for weeks and months."

With the current situation, Trump set to work:

1. The US barred Chevron from producing oil in Venezuela.

Chevron is no longer allowed to drill, sell, buy or transport crude oil and petroleum products in Venezuela until December 1, according to the Office of Foreign Assets Control. The solution also affects four US oil service providers: Halliburton, Schlumberger, Baker Hughes and Weatherford International.

"Chevron will continue to comply with applicable laws and regulations regarding the activities it is authorized to carry out in Venezuela," the company said. "We remain committed to the integrity of the assets of our joint venture, the safety and well-being of our employees and their families, and the social and humanitarian programs of the company in these difficult times."

Venezuela accounts for only about 1% of world Chevron oil production, but it remains strategically important because of the country's vast unused reserves. Chevron leaving would give way to market share and influence of Russian and Chinese companies.

2. Oil rebounds as Trump threatens Iran.

On Wednesday, Trump instructed the US Navy to fire at Iranian ships if harassed. Prices rose despite full warehouses and US stocks exceeding forecasts.

Trump said this a week after Iran's fleet was seen dangerously close to US ships in the Persian Gulf.

"Oil is growing because of Trump's announcement that the US Navy must shoot down any Iranian gunboats that pose a threat," said OANDA analyst Edward Moya in an email to IBD. "Combined with wide increase in stock risk, energy traders use Trump's tweet as an excuse to temporarily abandon their bearish position."

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Chris Lafakis of Moody's Analytics, on the other hand, believes that the rise of oil quotes is caused by the market focusing on the declining storage availability, not the renewed tensions in the Middle East.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on April 23. Buyers have a chance to resume growth. Bears will strive to return the

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

Yesterday, the pair returned to 1.2350, which I mentioned in my afternoon forecast, causing the British pound to fall. This is clearly visible on the 5-minute chart. However, after the bears reached their target in the area of 1.2298, the pressure on the pound eased, which led to a slight upward correction at the beginning of Asian trading. At the moment, much will depend on how buyers behave in the resistance area of 1.2350, since a break and consolidation above this range will allow for a larger upward correction to the area of a high of 1.2417, and then for an update of resistance 1.2476, where I recommend taking profit. In case GBP/USD declines after the release of weak data on the state of the UK services sector, forming a false breakout in the support area of 1.2298 will be the first signal to open long positions. In the absence of activity at this level, it is best to postpone purchases until a low of 1.2245 has been put to a test, or open long positions immediately to rebound from a low of 1.2173.

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To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

Bears will seek to form a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.2350, which will be the first signal to open short positions. Weak PMI data, which could be even worse than economists' forecasts, will lead to a breakthrough and consolidation below support 1.2298. This will only raise the pressure on the pair, which will push the pound to the lows of 1.2245 and 1.2173, where I recommend taking profit. In the event of the GBP/USD growth scenario above the resistance of 1.2350 in the morning, it is best to go back to short positions immediately to rebound from a larger high of 1.2417, counting on a correction of 30-40 points within the day.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the preservation of the bearish market.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

In case the pair grows, the upper border of the indicator in the region of 1.2370 will act as resistance. A break of the lower border at 1.2298 will increase pressure on the pound.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/GBP for April 23 - 2020

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EUR/GBP broke above resistance at 0.8793 indicating that a low already is in place at 0.8675 and a new impulsive rally is in motion to above the former peak at 0.9499. Short-term we expect minor support near 0.8765 will be able to protect the downside for renewed upside pressure through resistance at 0.8867 that is the neck-line of a S/H/S bottom and a break above here will target at least 0.9067, but this rally could easily extend much higher.

Short-term look for a break above minor resistance at 0.8809 as indication that the upside pressure has resumed and the neck-line at 0.8867 will be tested shortly.

R3: 0.8914

R2: 0.8868

R1: 0.8811

Pivot: 0.8780

S1: 0.8765

S2: 0.8743

S3: 0.8713

Trading recommendation:

We bought EUR at 0.8765 and we have placed our stop at 0.8670

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for April 23 - 2020

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GBP/JPY is in a place where it could accelerate lower anytime now. We are looking for resistance in the 133.28 - 133.64 area and expects this area to cap the upside for a continuation lower towards the next minor downside target near 129.12 on the way to below 123.99. Ideally, we can see a decline close to 123.03. However, this scenario will occur only if the pair breaks below 123.99 to fulfill all requirements to the decline from 147.96.

Only an unexpected break above resistance at 134.95 will question our outlook for a continued decline and force a revision of our count.

R3: 134.95

R2: 134.12

R1: 133.64

Pivot: 133.28

S1: 132.52

S2: 131.90

S3: 131.34

Trading recommendation:

We sold GBP at 134.35 with our stop placed at 135.00

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NZD/USD IPDA 60 Day Range Price Movement For April 23, 2020

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The Kiwi is now trying to break the 0.5840-0.5830 level/ The pair is in the discount array area from the Interbank Price Delivery Algorithm (IPDA) 60 Day Ranges. If the NZD/USD pair can break out and close above the 0.6001 then the bullish bias is likely to contunie untill the end of the month.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/JPY IPDA 60-Day Range Price Movement For April 23, 2020

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The USD/JPY pair has got stuck in a trading range in the Premium Array area according to the Interbank Price Delivery Algorithm (IPDA) that is 60-Day Range. So, this pair is likely to test 108.37 before the price retreats to the Clean Low Liquidity Pool area at 106.93. As long as the price does bounce above 109.39, the pair is set to follow the bearish bias, going down to the Discount Array area.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for 23/04/2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD pair has been slowly moving higher since the lows at 1.2246 and might be developing a Falling Wedge pattern. This pattern can be terminated around the level of 1.2385, so it is worth to keep an eye on this level during the intraday traidng. The larger time frame trend remains up, but in the short-term the bears are in control of the market and the next target for them is located at the level of 1.2165. Please notice, that the level of 1.2165 had been providing support for some time now, so any violation of this level will lead to a deeper sell-off towards 1.2000.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2855

WR2 - 1.2741

WR1 - 1.2613

Weekly Pivot - 1.2507

WS1 - 1.2367

WS2 - 1.2267

WS3 - 1.2125

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. On the GBP/USD pair the main trend is down, but the reversal is possible when the coronavirus pandemic will be tamed. The key long-term technical support has been recently violated (1.1983) and the new one is seen at the level of 1.1404. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate (1.1404).

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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for 23/04/2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has made a marginal low at the level of 1.0804 before jumping back to the consolidation zone. Still no breakout occured despite the fact, that bulls tried to bounce towards the level of 1.0893, which is a short-term technical resistance for the price, but failed to extend the rally. This indcates a possible increase in the bearish activity soon, so it is worth to keep an eye on the local support at 1.0804. Any violation of this level will lead to the test of the key short-term support located at the level of 1.0778.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1134

WR2 - 1.1063

WR1 - 1.0956

Weekly Pivot - 1.0883

WS1 - 1.0784

WS2 - 1.0701

WS3 - 1.0600

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. ON the EUR/USD pair the main trend is down, but the reversal is possible when the coronavirus pandemic will be tamed. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336).

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 23/04/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

The blockchain banking solution, Dharma, has implemented a new feature called Social Payments that allows users to send US dollars to any Twitter handle. Today's Tweet explained that payments can be made regardless of geographical location or whether the recipient has a Dharma account.

Application users can make payments to Twitter handles directly from their wallet, as long as there are sufficient funds in their account. The next step is to resend the payment to the Twitter bot and tag the recipient for notification. Payment recipients must use the link sent by the bot to be able to set up a Dharma account and link it to their Twitter account in order to receive the money. However, as with all deposits on Dharma accounts, the balance will earn interest through Compound.

Dharma lists a number of potential applications that these opportunities offer, including the transfer of micropayments, cross-border charitable donations and the acceptance of business payments. It is not the first company to implement such a solution. In January, even Twitter itself was reportedly interested in integrating such a function, although a spokesperson at the time denied that it is currently under development.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair has tested the 50% of Fibonacci retracement located at the level of $168.25 and bounced significantly higher. So far the bulls has managed to push the price towards the level of $186, which is very close to the key short-term resistance level. The nearest techncial support (intraday) is seen at the level of $178.25. The market participants await for a decisive breakout in either direction so it is worth to keep and eye on the next develpomnent on the Ethereum market. The key short-term support is seen at the level of $164.45 and if violated, the price can drop to the level of $153.46.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $240.86

WR2 - $214.90

WR1 - $200.99

Weekly Pivot - $173.55

WS1 - $159.05

WS2 - $132.99

WS3 - $117.12

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. So far the global investors are not so keen to invest in cryptocurrency, because they are being perceived as risky assets. The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $214.67 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 23/04/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

US market analysts say Bitcoin will be the most attractive to US citizens who have not received $ 1,200 stimulus checks from the government.

When a lot of information confirmed the trend of investing stimulus checks in the purchase of Bitcoin, Gabor Gurbacs, director of digital assets at VanEck, said that those who were missed in receiving help from the government will continue to look for opportunities to invest in crypto. Instead of short-term investments, people will trust Bitcoin more for its value, stability in difficult times and independence.

His words appeared only a few days after the data suggested that US assistance money had already been directed to crypto investments. According to the Coinbase exchange, deposits at the full value of $ 1,200 increased fourfold.

Meanwhile, the United States is planning help worth over 69 million Bitcoins for small businesses. The new stimulus package assumes financing in the amount of USD 484 billion, which according to employers will take place in several phases and will last for many months. Others, however, are demanding regular assistance with regular disbursements of $ 2,000.

The overall impression among both Bitcoin users and consumers, however, suggests that $ 1,200 is insufficient compensation for job losses, income and other restrictions due to a coronavirus pandemic.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has tested and bounced from the main channel upper line and made a new local high at the level of $7,129. There is a Pin Bar candlestick pattern at the top of this move and now new swing high has been made, so the market can hover around this level for some time now. The momentum however is increasing and has reached the positive teritorry, so there is some strength in the last wave up. Please watch the level of nearest technical resistance located at $7,247 to invalidate the downward scenario.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $8,288

WR2 - $7,759

WR1 - $7,459

Weekly Pivot - $6,596

WS1 - $6,675

WS2 - $6,137

WS3 - $5,855

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. So far the global investors are not so keen to invest in Bitcoin and treat BTC as a digital gold. The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: plan for the European session on April 23. Pressure on the euro remains, but sellers are in no hurry to run to the

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

The euro's decline from yesterday afternoon after an unsuccessful attempt to reach the upper border of the side channel 1.0895 made it possible for us to test a large support level of 1.0814. However, as we can see on the chart, there still isn't anyone who would want to sell the euro in the region of the lower border of the side channel, and most likely the data on activity in the manufacturing and services sectors of the eurozone countries will determine the direction, as well as decisions taken at the EU summit which will be held today in the form of an online conference. The bulls need an operational return to resistance 1.0819 in the first half of the day, since consolidating above this level will allow us to expect a return to the middle of the side channel 1.0853, and then to update its upper border in the region of 1.0895, where I recommend taking profit. If the pressure on EUR/USD persists, then most likely the bulls will retreat to a large support level of 1.0770, and I advise you to open long positions immediately for a rebound only at a low of 1.0718.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Sellers took advantage of poor data on consumer confidence in the eurozone and pushed the euro to support 1.0814, which was their target for the middle of the week. At the moment, forming a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.0819, along with poor reports on the state of the manufacturing and service sectors in Germany, France and the eurozone, will be a signal to open short positions while expecting a bearish trend that can return the pair to a low of 1.0770 . Sellers will be aiming for a low of 1.0718 until the end of the week, where I recommend taking profits. In the EUR/USD growth scenario in the morning, it is best to look at short positions on the test of the middle of the side channel 1.0853, where the moving averages also goes. You can sell the pair immediately for a rebound from the upper border in the area of 1.0895.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the bearish nature of the market, while maintaining a chance for the euro to decline further.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

Growth may be limited by the upper level of the indicator at 1.0870. A break of the lower border of the indicator at 1.0780 will only raise the pressure on the euro.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on April 23, 2020

EUR/USD

Investors were fueled by information on Wednesday, regarding the partial opening of the US economy and the upcoming stimulus package from the government for another $500 billion. The dollar index strengthened by 0.10%. Data on the eurozone consumer confidence index, which showed a decline from -12 to -23 in April, contributed to the euro's loss of 35 points.

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The price is declining under the balance and MACD indicator lines on the daily scale chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator continued to fall in the downward trend zone. The previously defined goal of 1.0610 gradually increases the attraction to itself.

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The price reversed from the red balance line on the four-hour chart yesterday. The declining market mood is maintained. The price pierced the signal level 1.0812 with the lower shadows of the candles, which created a signal to open short positions. We are waiting for the euro at the designated target.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on April 23, 2020

GBP/USD

The pound sterling has been trading in a range bounded by a Fibonacci level of 161.8% at the bottom and a Fibonacci level of 138.2% at the top, where the MACD line is approaching on the daily chart.

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In the main scenario, we expect the price to go below the lower level of 1.2235 and the pound to move to the price of 1.1935 at the Fibonacci level of 200.0%. Then it is possible to continue the downward branch to the Fibonacci level of 223.6% at the price of 1.1750. In this scenario, the price could rise to 1.2422, where it will meet strong resistance from the matching Fibonacci and MACD lines.

The alternative scenario will take effect if the price is consolidated above 1.2422, then the growth can continue to 1.2725 – up to the Fibonacci level of 100.0%. But the growth could be less, up to any of the Fibonacci levels located in front of the price. This creates its own risk of uncertainty in growth.

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The trend continues to decline on the four-hour chart despite the growing Marlin indicator, since it has not formed reversal patterns and, in this case, is simply moving behind the price.

We are waiting for the price to overcome the Fibonacci level of 161.8% at the price of 1.2235, after which it is possible to open sales with the target of 1.1935.

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CADJPY holding below long term descending trendline and about to break short term trendline support!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 75.887

Reason for Entry: 50% Fibonacci retracement, ascending trendline support

Take Profit : 75.407

Reason for Take Profit: Graphical swing low

Stop Loss: 76.123

Reason for Stop loss: Graphical swing high, descending trendline resistance

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Forecast for AUD/USD on April 23, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar did not consolidate below the MACD indicator line on the daily chart on Wednesday, which delayed the start of the medium-term decline by another 1-2 days. The aussie grew by 42 points. Currently, the price lies on the MACD line, accumulating forces to break through, but growth is possible during this time of consolidation, even to the price channel line in the region of 0.6525, since the price is still above both indicator lines and the Marlin oscillator, albeit falling, remains in the growth zone. Formally, the trend is rising.

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When the price overcomes the signal level of 0.6255, this will be a reliable condition for the medium-term decline while aiming for 0.5798 and below. The setup is falling on the H4 chart - the price is below the adaptive balance line (red). The Marlin oscillator could reverse from the boundary of the growth territory. A convergence on Marlin that is not that strong can be worked out.

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It is advised to skip the possible price increase, since the reversal can occur from any nearest resistance (0.6380, 0.6446), open sales when the price goes below the signal level of 0.6255.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/CAD testing upside confirmation, potential bounce!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.4165

Reason for Entry: Horizontal swing high, 38.2% fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 1.4292

Reason for Take Profit: 100% Fibonacci extension , 50% fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 1.3996

Reason for Stop loss: 61.8% fibonacci retracement

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for USD/JPY on April 23, 2020

USD/JPY

The yen's situation has not changed. The price continues to stay under the balance indicator line on the downward price channel line on the four-hour chart. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is preserved within the boundaries of its own wedge. But the general situation also kept declining, which does not change our forecast in which the price will fall in the medium-term in order to support the price channel in the area of 102.40.

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The first target of 106.85 is the closest embedded price channel line. The price leaving the MACD line of 108.35 will reverse the upward trend with the prospect of growth to 111.70.

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The price has clearly formed the trading range of 107.30-108.10 on the four-hour chart. The price is above the indicator lines, the Marlin oscillator is also in the growth zone. The signal line of the oscillator is in its own consolidation, in a horizontal trend, the exit of the line from it (as expected - down) will signal that a downward movement will begin to develop. At this moment, the price might be below the lower border of the trading range of 107.30-108.10, then you should wait for the price to go below the MACD line on H4 and overcome the first target of 106.85. On this, the last condition for a move up to 102.40 will be fulfilled.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. April 23. Donald Trump can cancel the trade deal with China if Beijing violates the terms of

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - downward.

CCI: -82.4678

On April 23, the British pound as a whole continues to adjust against the downward trend that was formed a few days earlier. Although the last bars of the Heiken Ashi indicator is colored blue, we believe that the correction may continue to the moving average line. In general, we can not but note the too sharp decline in the pound the day before yesterday, which even looked like the beginning of a new wave of panic in the currency market. However, yesterday's trading showed that a new panic is still far away, but the US currency can start to rise in price quite freely. Against the background of the same sincere faith of most investors and traders in the dollar. Although we have already said several times that now the British currency is almost waiting for a fall, at least to the level of 1.1900. Both options, with the "correction against a correction" and with the formation of a new downward trend, suggest a decrease in the pair's quotes. And the fundamental background, which could have stopped the fall in normal, calm times and triggered a new upward movement, is not able to do this now. Both fundamental and macroeconomic backgrounds continue to be ignored by traders. This week we have already witnessed this when all reports from the UK were ignored.

On Thursday, April 23, data on business activity for April will be received from the UK. As in the rest of the European Union, business activity in services and manufacturing may significantly decrease compared to March - to 29 and 42 points, respectively. Other more or less important data from Albion is not expected. And these reports are also unlikely to cause any reaction from market participants.

On the other hand, information that is very interesting continues to come from the United States every day. Not even from the United States, but from the White House. At the last press conference, Donald Trump openly stated that he can "terminate the deal" with China if it does not comply with the terms of the agreement, which was signed in January this year. Washington allows an option in which China can refer to a clause in the agreement that involves new trade consultations between the countries in the event of a "natural disaster or unforeseen circumstances." Also, the US President during the press conference did not forget to mention that China has been robbing America for years and expressed outrage at the fact that previous presidents looked "through their fingers" at what is happening. After Trump said that under his rule, the trade deficit with China began to decline. "No one has ever been tougher with China than I have," the US leader said.

However, this is not the only reason for the heating up of relations between the United States and China in recent times. The main one is, of course, the epidemic of "Chinese infection" all over the world. European countries also believe that the actions of WHO and China need to be checked, as there are suspicions of deliberate concealment of information by Beijing, thanks to which it would be possible to avoid the spread of infection around the world. It is difficult for us to say how the EU and the US will be able to conduct an investigation on the territory of China, however, if China's guilt is proven, then its relations may deteriorate not only with the US. The American President continues to insist that "if it was a mistake" and the virus got out of control in a Chinese laboratory by accident, "then fine." But if China deliberately hid the necessary information or deliberately released a virus, then Beijing must answer for it. The main questions now are: did China hide the number of cases on its territory? Why, if the epidemic began to unfold in China in November, did WHO only make an official statement in mid-December, and in the future did not attach the necessary significance to it? According to the charter of the same WHO, each member of the organization must immediately transmit statistical information in the field of health. All events that may pose an international threat must be reported by each country within 24 hours. Late provision of information or inaccurate data (not to mention deliberately false information) is considered an illegal action and in this case, WHO member countries can claim compensation. Thus, it is possible that the whole case will end up in the UN Court.

Well, the prospects for the British pound now depend not on oil, not on China, and not on the scale of the COVID-2019 pandemic. We believe that technical factors still rule the market. More precisely, the reasons for major market players may have their own, this is not a macroeconomic statistics, but we can not predict the actions of major players, of course, we can not. But we can track the trend and trade "according to the trend", not against it. With the help of technical indicators. Thus, in the current conditions, we recommend waiting for signals about the end of the current round of correction and resuming trading on the downside. The senior linear regression channel supports a possible continuation of the downward movement.

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The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair has stopped decreasing and is currently 126 points. In the last 20 trading days, the pair almost every day passes from 100 to 200 points. Therefore, we can say that volatility is now stable. On Thursday, April 23, we expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2205 and 1.2457. A downward turn of the Heiken Ashi indicator will indicate the end of the upward correction within the downward trend.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.2268

S2 - 1.2207

S3 - 1.2146

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.2329

R2 - 1.2390

R3 - 1.2451

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair started to adjust on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, it is recommended that traders now consider selling the pound with the goals of 1.2268 and 1.2207, after the reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator down (a third blue bar is needed). It is recommended to consider purchases of the British currency not before fixing traders above the moving average with the first goal of the Murray level of "4/8"-1.2451.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. April 23. The EU may not agree on the sources of the 2 trillion euros needed for the economy

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - downward.

CCI: -164.7434

During the third trading day of the week, the euro/dollar currency pair again fell to the lower border of the side channel, limited by the levels of 1.0817 and 1.0900. Thus, the pair shows a persistent desire to overcome this level of support and continue the downward movement, possibly within the framework of a new downward trend. We believe that it is too early to start selling the euro currency until the level of 1.0817 is successfully overcome. And even if the quotes are fixed at 1.0817, the rather sluggish movement may continue. In the current situation, it is even difficult to say whether the sluggish movement of the euro currency in recent days is good or bad? On the one hand, it is bad, because it complicates the trading process. On the other hand, it is good, because there are no signs of a new wave of panic in the pair yet. But there is something to panic about. First, it is the oil market, which is now being talked about no less than in its time about bitcoin. Second, the "coronavirus", which, despite all the reports of slowing down the spread, continues to infect more and more people in all countries of the world. The first factor reflects what is happening in the economy of any country in the world. The lack of functioning of this very economy. If the demand for oil falls by almost 30 million barrels a day, it is obvious that the business and economic activity of any country in the world is now much lower than in quiet times. The second factor also shows that things are pretty bad in the world right now. The total number of infected people is already 2.6 million, and we repeat, this is just official data from the American Johns Hopkins Institute. They only take into account officially confirmed cases of "coronavirus". Thus, if a person did not pass the test or, for example, does not feel unwell (in this case, he may be a carrier of the COVID-2019 virus), then he is not counted in these statistics. Therefore, according to unofficial opinions of representatives of the medical field and experts, the total number of infected people on the planet may already be 10 million. Thus, we do not see any reason for joy yet.

Meanwhile, the EU will hold a video summit today, the theme of which will be "assistance to the EU economy in the face of a pandemic". We have already written about 540 billion dollars that will be used to support small and medium-sized businesses (so that they do not lay off their employees), so-called "targeted compensation". Part of this money will also be sent to small and medium-sized businesses in the form of soft loans (about 200 billion euros). Another 240 billion will be used to support the countries most affected by the epidemic to avoid their default.

However, this money will not be enough. The head of the European Council, Charles Michel, said on Tuesday that 540 billion euros will not be enough to restart the economy after its almost 2-month downtime. On the morning of the same day, European Commissioner for Internal Market Affairs Thierry Breton said that the program to restore the economy after the pandemic may require an additional 1.6 trillion euros. This amount is proposed to be collected by raising borrowed funds. However, it is not yet clear whether the idea of so-called "coronabonds", i.e. pan-European bonds, whose guarantors will be each EU country, will be implemented. We have already said that Germany, Austria, the Netherlands, and Finland are against this idea. These countries do not like the concept of going into debt for the sake of Italy, Spain, and others who have been most affected by the crisis.

According to other information, the EU summit will consider proposals to assist with 2 trillion euros over the next 7 years. The so-called "plan for the long-term recovery of the EU economy". It is expected that the EU summit will fail, the parties will not come to a common denominator on the source of borrowed funds. As we can see, the alliance has problems in assisting its economy, since it requires the approval of the plan by 27 EU members at once, and in contrast to the same America, which very easily accepts any program to stimulate the economy. From our point of view, if the European Union does not come to a common opinion today, this may create pressure on the European currency.

In addition to the fundamental background on April 23, the pair will be pursued by the macroeconomic one. To date, quite a large number of different statistics are planned. The day will start with the publication of business activity in the alliance countries. Unfortunately, nothing optimistic can be said about these reports. Preliminary values for April are likely to show another collapse in business activity indices. This applies to all countries and all areas of the economy. The most important indices for Germany and the European Union can be: 39 - the German manufacturing sector, 28.5 - the German services sector, 39.2 - the EU manufacturing sector, 23.8 - the EU services sector. In principle, nothing new can be said for these indicators. Market participants are unlikely to pay attention to this data. And after lunch, a report will be published in the United States that has been roiling markets in recent weeks. This is a report on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States. According to experts' forecasts, the actual value for the previous week will be equal to 4.2 million new applications. And the total number of unemployed in the United States will grow to 26 million (this is only in the last 5 weeks). A little later, the business activity indices in the services and manufacturing sectors will also be published by Markit, which is also forecast to decline.

Unfortunately, all this interesting package of macroeconomic statistics is likely to be ignored by traders again. At least, you need to be prepared for this option. The first place will again be given to "technology", which should be very closely monitored since it is the technical factors that now work best in the market. "Technique" also suggests that the downward movement will continue after a few days of downtime. Above the moving average line, the pair failed to gain a foothold, so it continues to slide down. Both linear regression channels also continue to expand downward. We can only hope that the downward movement will not collapse, as at the beginning of the crisis.

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The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of April 23 is 74 points. So far, this indicator does not give cause for concern. 74 points is not even "strong" volatility. Today, we expect the pair's quotes to move between the levels of 1.0747 and 1.0895. If the level of 1.0817 is broken, it will show a strong desire of the bears to continue moving south. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator upward, on the contrary, may indicate a new round of upward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.0742

S2 - 1.0620

S3 - 1.0498

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.0864

R2 - 1.0986

R3 - 1.1108

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair is trying to continue the downward trend. Thus, traders are advised to wait for the exit from the side channel, that is, fixing below the level of 1.0817, and again trade down with the goals of 1.0747 and 1.0742. It is recommended to consider buying the euro/dollar pair not before fixing the price above the moving average line with the goal of the Murray level of "2/8"-1.0986.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com