Technical analysis of NZD/USD for May 10, 2018

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NZD/USD is expected to trade with a bearish outlook. The pair posted a strong decline yesterday, and is now under pressure below its nearest resistance at 0.6975. A bearish cross has been identified between the 20-period and 50-period moving averages. Furthermore, the relative strength index is negative below its neutrality area at 50. To conclude, as long as 0.6975 is not surpassed, likely decline to 0.6910 and 0.6870 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines show the support levels, while the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7005, 0.7030, and 0.7075.Support levels: 0.6910, 0.6870, and 0.6835.

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for May 10, 2018

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GBP/JPY is under pressure. The pair confirmed a bearish reversal after the recent downside breakout of its 50-period moving average. The 20-period moving average is also turning down, and is about to cross below the 50-period one. In addition, the relative strength index remains weak below its neutrality area at 50, without showing any reversal signal. In which case, as long as the resistance at 148.55 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 147.00 remains high.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines show the support levels, while the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 149.25,149.65, and 150.00

Support levels: 147, 146.65, and 146

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The British pound collapsed because of a revised forecast for economic growth

The British pound collapsed today in the morning, after the Bank of England left the rate unchanged and lowered the forecast for economic growth. Despite all the statements that the economic downturn in the first quarter is not as serious as expected, it can be seen that investors are more likely to trust figures.

Comments of the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney supported the pound, not allowing him to break through the lows of the month, which would create a new downward wave.

As it became known today, the Bank of England left a key interest rate at 0.5%, saying that interest rate hikes will depend on the economic situation's compliance with the forecasts. The decision to keep the key rate at the level of 0.5% was taken with the ratio of votes 7 to 2.

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The Bank of England said that the prospects for the British economy remained almost unchanged, despite the unsuccessful 1st quarter of 2018, and the need to tighten monetary and credit policy remains. It is also forecasted that inflation will rise to the target level a little faster than anticipated in February this year.

According to the economists of the bank, the impact of the earlier weakening of the pound on inflation will disappear faster than expected.

The main pressure on the pound occurred when the regulator lowered the forecast for economic growth in 2018 to 1.4% from 1.8%.

During the speech of the Governor of the Bank of England, the pound received some support. Mark Carney said that the economy is stronger than the data for the first quarter suggest, and the overall economic climate, apparently, has not changed much.

In the first half of the day also published data on manufacturing in the UK, which in March this year declined. According to a report by the National Bureau of Statistics, manufacturing in the UK fell by 0.1% compared with February this year. The main reduction in production was noted in electrical equipment and pharmaceuticals.

As for the technical picture of the GBP / USD pair, much will depend on the support level of 1.3485. His breakthrough opens new lows in the 1.3430 area and 1.3370. The main goal of the sellers will be the area of 1.3300. If the buyers still manage to take the market into their own hands, then it is possible to speak about the upward correction only after returning and consolidating at the resistance level 1.3620, from which the demolition of a number of stop orders of sellers will return the pound to areas 1.3690 and 1.3760.

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Trading plan for the US session on May 10 EUR / USD

To open long positions for EUR / USD, you need:The buyers are gradually selected to the support level of 1.1882, which will allow to expect a larger upward correction to the area of 1.1927 and 1.1975, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of a decline in the euro in the afternoon, purchases can also be found after the support test at 1.1825 and on the rebound from 1.1792 and 1.1765.To open short positions for EUR / USD, you need:The formation of a false breakdown at the level of 1.1882 should lead to a second wave of sales of the European currency with a month low at 1.1825. If in the second half of the day there is a breach of resistance 1.1882, short positions can be returned to the rebound from the area of 1.1927 and 1.1975.

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Description of indicatorsMA (average sliding) 50 days - yellowMA (average sliding) 30 days - greenMACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMABollinger Bands 20

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Trading plan for the US session on May 10 GBP / USD

To open long positions for GBP / USD, you need:

The buyers have worked out the support level of 1.3485 after the decision of the Bank of England but for a larger upward trend, it is necessary to return to the level of 1.3552, from which we can expect to update the daily highs in the 1.3623 area and exit at 1.3689, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the event of a breakthrough of support at 1.3485, the pound purchases can only be returned after a test of the lows around 1.3429 and 1.3366.

To open short positions for GBP / USD, you need:

While the trade is below the resistance level of 1.3552, there is a possibility of further decline of the pound with a repeat support test of 1.3485, the breakthrough of which will lead to sales already in the region of new monthly lows in the 1.3429 and 1.3366 areas. In the case of a pound in the afternoon, sales can again be sought for a rebound from 1.3623 and 1.3689.

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Description of indicators

MA (average sliding) 50 days - yellow

MA (average sliding) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA

Bollinger Bands 20

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Technical analysis and trading recommendations for the USD / CAD currency pair as of May 10, 2018

The currency pair USD / CAD still failed to overcome the psychological level of 1.3000, getting close to it, the quote slowed down the movement and the result unfolded. Now, we can already see how the quote sank by more than 200 points, leaving behind the impulse candles. It is possible to assume that the "bearish" interest is preserved, and the current value of 1.2775 is just a periodic value for stopping, and in the case of fixation below 1.2750, we will open the way to the level of 1.2660.

Key Levels

Resistance 1,3000 *: 1,3120

Support 1,2800; 1.2660

* Psychological level

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Wave analysis of the USD / JPY currency pair for May 10, 2018

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Analysis of wave counting:

Having started the yesterday's trading with the upward movement, the currency pair USD / JPY was able to add about 80 percentage points in price and work out the mark of 109.80 at the end of the day. It can be assumed that the currency pair remained in the formative stage of the slightly more complicated form of the wave 2, 1, 5, C, C, (B). If this is so, then, while maintaining the potential for working out the target in the vicinity of 110.25 and further complicating the internal wave structure of the entire wave c, 4, C, C, (B), the currency pair may resume the decline quotations in the direction of the level of the 108th figure.

The objectives for the option with a downward wave:

108.10 - 38.2% of Fibonacci

106.77 - 23.6% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with an upward wave:

110.26 - 61.8% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The tool continues to complicate the downward trend section. The lowering of quotations may resume with the first targets near the marks of 108.10 and 106.77, which corresponds to 38.2% and 23.6% of Fibonacci, within the framework of wave 5, C, C, (B). Wave c, 4, can become even more complicated with targets located near the calculated mark of 110.26, which corresponds to 61.8% of Fibonacci. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the level of 110.26 may lead to the completion of an upward wave. The upward corridor still retains the prospect of higher quotes.

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Wave analysis of the USD / CHF currency pair for May 10, 2018

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Analysis of wave counting:

In the second half of yesterday's trading, the currency pair USD / CHF resumed its upward movement and returned to the level of 1.0055 until the end of the day. Thus, we can assume that as a result of this price increase, the currency pair significantly complicated the internal wave structure of the wave 5, c, c, B, (2), A, (B). If this is the case, then before the transition to the stage of formation of the future wave C, (2), A, (B), the currency pair will fulfill the target in the area of 1.0065 or even test the level of 1.0100.

The objectives for the option with an upward wave:

1.0064 - 76.4% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with a downward wave:

0.9751 - 50.0% of Fibonacci

0.9625 - 38.2% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The currency pair continues to build an uptrend. Within the limits of the wave c, c, B, (2), A, (B), the quotes continue to rise with targets near the estimated level of 1.0064, which corresponds to 76.4% of Fibonacci. After the completion of the construction of this wave, a long decline is expected within the framework of wave C, (2), A, (B).

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Wave analysis of the GBP / USD currency pair for May 10, 2018

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Analysis of wave counting:

The low activity of yesterday's trading did not allow the GBP / USD currency pair to develop any significant upward movement and the price returned to the opening levels of the day before the close of the American session. At the same time, it can still be assumed that the currency pair continued to make attempts to transition to the formation stage of wave b, c, b, B, C, C, (A). At the same time, the currency pair retained the potential to resume the decline of quotations to the level of the 34th figure and further complicate the internal wave structure of the entire wave c, b, B, C, C, (A).

The objectives for building a downward wave:

1.3414 - 127.2% of Fibonacci

The objectives for building an upward wave:

1.3900 - 1.400

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The wave counting assumes the construction of a descending set of waves. The decline in quotes may continue in the wave a, c, b, B, C, C, (A) with targets near the estimated mark of 1.3414, which is equivalent to 127.2% of Fibonacci. Within the framework of the construction of wave b, c, b, B, C, C, (A), the quotations may start to depart from the reached lows with targets located about 39 and 40 figures. An unsuccessful attempt to break the 1.3414 mark may lead to the completion of the downward wave construction.

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Wave analysis of the EUR / USD currency pair for May 10, 2018

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Analysis of wave counting:

After the decline at the beginning of the European session to almost 1.1820, the price of the EUR / USD currency pair fell by more than 70 percentage points from the already reached minimum and completed trades near the opening levels of the day. At the same time, with such a slow decline, the currency pair continued the process of complicating the internal wave structure of the wave 5, c, c, B, (C). If this is the case, the breakdown of the level of the 18th figure will most likely lead to a price turn against the dollar, thereby indicating the beginning of the future wave d, B, (C), or even the resumption of the formation of the main upward trend.

The objectives for building a downward wave:

1.1807 - 685.4% of Fibonacci

The objectives for building an upward wave:

1.2100 - 1.2200

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The wave counting on the instrument involves the construction of a descending set of waves. Now, it is expected that the quotes will continue to decline within the limits of wave 5, c, c, B, (C) with targets near the calculated mark of 1.1807, which corresponds to 685.4% of Fibonacci. The downward corridor preserves the prospects of reducing the instrument, the breakthrough of its upper forming line will warn about the readiness of the instrument to build the upward wave.

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The daily review of the currency pair EUR / JPY for May 10, 2018. Ichimoku Indicator

EUR / JPY

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Senior timeframes

At the moment, we observe the development of an upward correction. For players on a downgrade, it is important that this rise has the result of a retest of the levels passed the day before. Among the most significant resistance in this case, it should be noted 130.34-50 (Senkou Span A days + Senkou Span A weeks) and 131.19 (week Tenkan + day Cross). Reliable consolidation above will change the existing balance of power in favor of bulls, having formed for the new prospects and landmarks.

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H4-H1

There is a zone of important resistance 130.34-50. The breakdown and consolidation above will largely form and strengthen the advantages of players to increase. Further, the plans of the bulls will include the fulfillment of the target at the breakdown of the H1 cloud and the ascent to the next important zone of resistance, formed by the combination of the cloud H4, the weekly Tenkan and the day cross (130.90 - 131.50). Support, the overcoming of which can affect the bullish plans, as well as return some important advantages to the side of the bears today are located in the area of 129.90-80. The fastening below can serve as the beginning of the formation of rebound from the encountered zone of resistance (130.34-50).

Indicator parameters:

All time intervals 9 - 26 - 52

The color of indicator lines:

Tenkan (short-term trend) - red,

Kijun (medium-term trend) - green,

Fibo Kijun is a green dotted line,

Chinkou is gray,

Clouds: Senkou Span B (SSB, long-term trend) - blue,

Senkou Span A (SSA) - pink.

The color of additional lines:

Support and resistance MN - blue, W1 - green, D1 - red, H4 - pink, H1 - gray,

Horizontal levels (not Ichimoku) - brown,

Trend lines - purple.

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The daily review of the currency pair GBP / JPY for May 10, 2018. Ichimoku Indicator

GBP / JPY

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Senior timeframes

The pair performed retest of the punched levels, having risen to the zone of influence of the day (148.93) and monthly (148.88) Tenkan. The players on a decline for the development and preservation of their plans need to organize the completion of the climb and form a retreat from the levels encountered. Opponents in the current situation, on the contrary, need to linger in the daytime cloud and transfer short-term trends to their side. As a result, they will open new prospects, and the role of the next upside target will again belong to the most significant level of this site 150.77 (daytime Senkou Span B + week-old Kijun).

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H4-H1

At the moment, the pair is making a second attempt to overcome the resistance encountered in the area of the union of the upper-tier levels (148.90) and the lower boundary of the H4 cloud (Senkou Span A 149). The advantages are now on the side of players to increase, but failure in the fight against resistance can quickly change the situation. The most important support zone today is located in the area of 148.60-40 (Tenkan N4 + the final borders of the cross H1 + cloud N1 + day Senkou Span A), the anchoring below will change the current balance of forces and will allow to consider the decline. The following support can be noted on 148.10 and 147.65.

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Trading plan for the European session on 10 May EUR / USD

To open long positions for EUR / USD, you need:

For today, the challenge for euro buyers is a breakthrough and consolidation above the resistance level of 1.1882, which will allow us to expect a larger upward correction to the area of 1.1927 and 1.1975, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of a decline in the euro in the morning, purchases can also be found after the support test at 1.1825 and on the rebound from 1.1792 and 1.1765.

To open short positions for EUR / USD, you need:

An unsuccessful consolidation and return to the level of 1.1882, as it was yesterday, will be a good signal for the opening of new short positions in the euro in terms of reducing and re-testing the support level of 1.1825. Only the breakdown of this level will lead to the sale of EUR / USD to the area of 1.1792 and 1.1765. If the euro rises above the level of 1.1882 in the first half of the day, sales may return to a rebound of 1.1927, or better after the renewal of resistance at 1.1975.

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Description of indicators

MA (average sliding) 50 days - yellow

MA (average sliding) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for the European session on 10 May GBP / USD

To open long positions for GBP / USD, you need:

All the movement of the pound today will be tied to the decision of the Bank of England. As long as the trade is above the level of 1.3552, the demand for GBP / USD will continue, which will lead to the renewal of resistance 1.3623, and then to a larger correction to the area of 1.3689, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of a decline under the support of 1.3552, you can return to purchases only after the test of 1.3485.

To open short positions for GBP / USD, you need:

The return to the resistance level of 1.3552 in the first half of the day will be a signal for the opening of short positions in the pound in the expectation of a decrease and update of the low of the month in the 1.3485 area, with a breakout and exit to the support area of 1.3459 and 1.3429. In the case of pound growth in the morning, short positions can be searched after resistance test 1.3623, or on rebound from 1.3689.

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Description of indicators

MA (average sliding) 50 days - yellow

MA (average sliding) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for May 10, 2018

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading sideways at the price of $9.303 . Good news for American bitcoin companies, someone who wants much lighter Bitlicense regulations is in the running to be the next New York attorney general. And in China, a bitcoin mining hardware producer is planning a $1 billion IPO. Technical picture on Bitcoin looks bearish. Trading recommendations: According to the H1 time-frame, I found potential end of bullish correction (rising wedge) in the backgorund, which is a sign that buying looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities if you see a valid breakout of rising wedge. The downward target is set at the price of $8.950.

Support/Resistance

$9.352 – Intraday resistance $8.147– Intraday support $8.950 – Objective target 1

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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Global macro overview for 10/05/2018

On Wednesday, Wall Street was able to react calmly to the situation that arose after the US withdrew from the deal with Iran. Before the session, the price of oil rose by about three percent, which is much more than on Tuesday. This, however, could even help the indexes, because it raised stock prices in the energy sector. In addition, Europeans have argued that the deal with Iran is not dead and that they will abide by it. Donald Trump also claimed that if Iran wants to conclude a better agreement for the US, he is ready for discussion. It does not have to lead to a good solution, but it certainly helped to calm down the mood.

The US data form April inflation at producer prices (PPI) was published. It turned out that inflation rose by 2.6% y/y and 0.1% m/m which was worse than anticipated by the global investors(expected 2.9% y/y and 0.3% m/m). For some time, this data has already been closely watched, because eventually production prices may go to CPI, and this would increase the yield on US bonds. This, in turn, would further support the US Dollar across the board due to the Fed monetary policy anticipation (another hike this year).

Wall Street has behaved quite surprisingly. Over three percent increase in the price of oil helped in nearly two-and-a-half percent increase in the energy sector, which had the strongest impact on the broad market. However, the return of 10-year US bond yields to 3.0% could have worsened the market. Not only did he not worry, he even helped because he raised stock prices in the financial sector.

Let's now take a look at the SP500 technical picture at the H4 timeframe. The price attacked and broke the downward trend line, which began in late March this year - it ended the day with a one percent increase. Such a breakthrough of the trend line, being at the same time a break from the four-month triangle, is a buy signal, but the traders should be very cautious about this signal: at any time, bond yields or a trade war with China can harm the markets. Moreover, there is a longer-term trend line (golden in color on the chart) that still hasn't been tested. The next target fur bulls are seen at the level of 271.47 and the immediate support is seen at the level of 267.96.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review of GBP / USD pair on May 10, 2018

On Thursday, the following strong calendar news comes out:

- 8.30 London time. GBP, the volume of production in manufacturing (m / m) (mar), the expected value is -0.2% compared the previous value of -0.2%;

- 11.00 London time. GBP, the Bank of England's inflation report;

- 11.00 London time. GBP, the decision on the interest rate (May), the expected value is 0.50%, compared to the previous value of 0.50%;

- 12.30 London time. GBP, the decision on the interest rate (May), the expected value is 0.2% compared to the previous value of 0.2%.

Trend analysis (Figure 1).

On Wednesday, the price continued to move in the side channel. On Thursday, the market will move up in the side channel prior to the release of the report. But after the news at 11.00 London time, there is more likelihood of a decline. A complex analysis will more accurately determine where the price will go next.

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Fig. 2 (daily chart).

Complex analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - upwards;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- Weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

On Thursday, before the news, the market will move up in the side channel, while after the news at 11.00 London time, there is more probability of a decline towards the first target of 1.3485 on the lower fractal.

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GBP/USD analysis for May 10, 2018

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Recently, GBP/USD has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.3560. According to the H4 time - frame, I found a downward channel in the background, which is a sign that selling looks risky. I also found a hidden bullish divergence on the RSI oscillator, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.3670 and at the price of 1.3770.

Resistance levels: R1: 1.3603R2: 1.3660R3: 1.3710

Support levels: S1: 1.3495S2: 1.3443 S3: 1.3387

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review of EUR / USD pair for May 10, 2018

On Thursday, the following strong calendar news comes out:

- 12.30 London time. USD, the basic consumer price index (CPI) (m / m) (Apr), the expected value is 0.2% compared to the previous value of 0.2%.

Trend analysis (Figure 1).

On Wednesday, the price continued its downtrend, based on the weekly schedule. On Thursday, the downward movement may stop. A complex analysis will more accurately determine where the price will go next.

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Fig. 2 (daily chart).

Complex analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - upwards;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion.

On Thursday, the market will move upward in the rollback along the side of the channel towards the first target of 1.1930, with the retracement level of 14.6%.

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After a pause, the dollar's growth may resume

On Wednesday, the investors' attention was attracted to the threatening speech of Donald Trump against Iran. "Shaking" the air with the new threats of punishments, American president did not forget about melodrama, abundantly adding the promises of "serious consequences if the Iranian Republic does not stop working in the field of acquiring nuclear weapons" to his threats.

His comments did not have any negative impact on the US stock market, which does not seem to believe in the reality of Trump's determination. But, the prices for crude oil resumed positively dynamic, supported by the increased geopolitical risks of the emergence of a new hot spot in the Middle East.

The foreign exchange market continues to live its own life. A fairly overbought dollar was under slight pressure against the background of the publication of data on industrial inflation in the United States. The data turned out to be weaker than the forecasts, which, most likely, was the reason for the partial fixation of the previously received profit.

According to the published data, the producer price index (PPI) on an annual basis grew less than expected. The indicator grew by 2.6% while it grew by 3.0% in the previous period. with an expected increase of 0.2% compared to a 0.3% rise in March. The base value of the producer price index (PPI) fell year-on-year, adding 2.3%, while an increase of 2.4% was expected in line with the March growth of 2.7%.

But again, in our opinion, the published data is just a pretext for fixing profits, and nothing else. Previously, the market has always ignored data on production inflation, focusing on the figures for consumer inflation. Therefore, we believe that the decline in the dollar may be local and it is already on the new wave, perhaps positive figures will cause growth to continue. It was predicted that it would add 2.8% in April but only added 0.1% on a monthly basis.

Forecast of the day:

The GBP/USD pair is consolidating in the range of 1.3500 - 1.3600. It can resume the decline when it becomes clear that raising rates should not be expected in the near future. In this situation, the pair may fall to 1.3450.

The USD/CAD pair is falling on the wave of the U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear deal with Iran, which has worsened not only the geopolitical situation but will become the basis for sanctions on the country's oil exports to the world market. The growth of crude oil quotations supports the rate of the Canadian currency. A breakout at the level of 1.2815 could lead to a decline towards 1.2745.

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NZD / USD pair: Adrian Orr's debut was deplorable for New Zealander

Today, during the Asian session, the first meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand was held under the chairmanship of Adrian Orr. For several months he was the acting head of the regulators and before that he headed the Pension Fund of the country. Today he made his debut as a full-fledged chairman.

Many foreign exchange strategists eagerly awaited his speech at the end of the May meeting of the RBNZ. None of them doubted that the regulator would leave the parameters of monetary policy in its previous form, but some market participants had hope for some tightening of the rhetoric of the head of the Central Bank.

Let me remind you that the predecessor of Adrian Orr, Graham Wheeler, was extremely soft on the monetary policy, especially over the past three years. Since 2015, the RBNZ interest rate has been gradually declining, from 3.5% to the current 1.75%. Willer was a supporter of a weak "kiwi" and with enviable regularity, he exerted verbal pressure on the national currency. In addition, he loosened the terms of monetary policy, despite the risk of "overheating" the real estate market in the country. Persistently professing the dovish policy, he tried to influence the housing market with the help of other measures (in particular, regarding the determination of the loan amount to the value of the pledge).

In other words, after several years of extremely mild monetary policy, the New Zealand Central Bank has a chance to change course - at least in the distant future. Some experts did not rule out the possibility that the new head of the RBNZ would declare a way to normalize monetary and credit policy, despite the continuing risks.

However, today all the hopes of the New Zealand currency bulls have collapsed. Adrian Orr did not only preserved the "dovish" mood of his predecessor but even surpassed him in terms of voiced pessimism. Firstly, he said that he was extremely surprised and disappointed with the weak growth in the level of wages in the country. Secondly, he expressed dissatisfaction with the rate of inflationary growth and worried about the weak confidence of businessmen in the business environment. Among the main risk factors, he mentioned US bonds, the yield of which persists at multi-year highs of 10-year treasuries has once again broken the 3 percent barrier.

The head of the RBNZ and China were Disappointed in the context of a possible slowdown in the global economy. By the way, the data published on Chinese inflation really disappointed the market today. The indicator did not even reach a sufficiently weak forecast, reaching 1.8%. In annual terms, the indicator has been slowing down for the second month in a row, and this fact signals an "alarm bell" for the markets.

However, he head of the New Zealand Central Bank addressed China casually, focusing on attention to inflationary growth. Assessing the prospects for a monetary policy, he stressed that in this issue "the doors are up and down - everything depends on the further development of the situation."

In other words, Adrian Orr did not exclude the possibility of lowering the interest rate in response to a decline of the consumer price index. Inflation has been falling for several quarters in a row: the latest release came out at 1.1% amid the strengthening of the labor market. Therefore, if you project this trend with the words of the RBNZ head, the likelihood of mitigating monetary policy does not look so incredible. Although even at the beginning of this year, experts allowed only an alternative scenario, albeit with an open implementation date.

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In addition, Adrian Orr noted a downward trend in the real estate market. The decline in house prices in a certain sense "unties the hands" of the regulator's members regarding the easing of the terms of the credit policy. This is a very indirect factor, but in conjunction with the other theses of today's Orr speech, the overall picture looks quite negative for the national currency.

It should also be noted that in addition to the slowdown of inflation and sluggish GDP growth It may be disappointing and less significant, but it is still significant for New Zealand indicators. In particular, the price index for dairy products again found itself in the negative area. Since the end of February, the index was below zero, but it unexpectedly showed growth on April 17. he first auction in May was to confirm or refute this trend.

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Alas, the results of the Day auction in May were negative. The index again went into the negative area due to the reduction in the price of dried whole milk and milk fat. As known, the dairy sector is strategically important for the New Zealand economy, so the above trend exerts additional pressure on the NZD/USD pair.

Thus, the overall fundamental background for the New Zealand currency remains negative. The new head of the RBNZ Adrian Orr showed himself to be a supporter of a soft monetary policy, allowing the probability of a rate cut. The remaining fundamental factors also play against the New Zealander. This circumstance intensifies the pressure on NZD/USD pair against the background of the U.S. currency growth.

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From the technical point of view, the priority is for the southern movement of the pair. On all the "higher" timeframes, the Kinko Hyo indicator demonstrates a bearish signal "Line Parade", and the price is located between the middle and Bollinger Bands at the bottom lines of the indicator n the monthly chart, which coincides with the one and a half-year price minimum.

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Trading plan for GBP / USD pair as of 05/10/2018

It seems that we have to wait for correction for a long time. Although in the UK, the growth rate of industrial production is expected to accelerate from 2.2% to 3.1%, much more important results of the meeting of the Board of the Bank of England. Literally a couple of days ago, it was assumed that the regulator would raise the refinancing rate from 0.5% to 0.75%, but the mood changed radically. The latest statements by the representatives of the Bank of England unequivocally suggest that the refinancing rate will remain unchanged so that the pound will clearly have no reason to grow. Moreover, this will be regarded as a weakness, and if we consider the expectation for the U.S. inflation to accelerate from 2.4% to 2.5%, the probability of a further decrease in the pound is high.

The GBP/USD currency pair has moved closer to the range of 1.3440 / 1.3480, felt the support, forming the result of the 1.3480 -1 .3590 area. It is possible to assume further swaying in the given framework, where, the quotation will probably take place.

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Analysis of Silver for May 10, 2018

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Recently, Silver has been trading upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $16.59 and met my yesterday's target. According to the H4 time - frame, I found the breakout of a potential bullish flag, which is a sign that buyers are in control. I also found a potential end of bearish correction (ABC), which is a sign that Silver may trade higher. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of $16.79 and at the price of $17.10.

Resistance levels:

R1: $16.62

R2: $16.75

R3: $16.89

Support levels:

S1: 16.34

S2: 16.21

S3: 16.07

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for for May 10, 2018

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The price zone of 0.7320-0.7390 stood as a significant supply zone during recent bullish pullback. The bulls failed to execute a successful Bullish breakout above 0.7400 during the previous week's consolidations.

The NZD/USD pair had been trapped between the price levels of 0.7170 and 0.7350 until bearish breakdown of 0.7200 occurred Yesterday.

Since April 13, significant bearish pressure has been applied. This probably turns the short-term outlook for the NZD/USD pair into bearish giving considerable significance to the multiple-top reversal pattern.

That's why, bearish breakdown of 0.7220-0.7170 (neckline zone) was needed to confirm the depicted reversal pattern. Bearish target levels around 0.7050 and 0.7000 have been achieved already.

The bearish scenario needs obvious bearish persistence below 0.7050 to maintain significant bearish momentum towards 0.6860 and 0.6820. That's why, the price level of 0.7050 is currently considered a key-level for the NZD/USD bears.

Any bullish breakout above the price level of 0.7050 hinders further bearish decline allowing bullish pullback to occur towards 0.7170-0.7220.

On the other hand, conservative traders can wait for a bullish pullback towards the price zone of 0.7220-0.7170 (neckline zone) (significant supply zone) for a valid SELL entry. S/L should be placed above 0.7260.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for May 10, 2018

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Daily Outlook

The EUR/USD pair had been trapped between the price levels of 1.2200 and 1.2500 until bearish breakout occured recently.

Significant signs of bearish reversal were manifested around the price levels of 1.2400.This was manifested in the bearish engulfing daily candlestick of April 20.

The short-term outlook turns to become bearish as long as the EUR/USD pair keeps trading below the broken uptrend as well as the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range remains broken.

Bearish persistence below the price level of 1.2200 allowed further bearish decline towards the price levels of 1.1990 and 1.1880.

The current price zone (1.1850-1.1750) should be watched for a possible bullish rejection and a short-term bullish pullback.

Conservative traders should wait for a bullish pullback towards 1.2190-1.2200 for a valid low-risk SELL entry.

However, If bearish momentum dominates, bearish persistence below 1.1700-1.1750 (zone of previous daily lows) will be needed to enhance further bearish decline towards 1.1400 (the previously mentioned monthly key-level).

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Euro buyers have a chance

Weak data on producer prices in the US and the performance of representatives of the Fed did not put much pressure on the US dollar, which will continue its steady growth against risky assets.

According to the report, the producer price index in the US for the month of April this year grew by only 0.1% after rising by 0.3% in March. Economists expected inflation to grow by 0.2%.

Compared to the same period in 2017, producer prices rose only 2.6%, also showing a slowdown. Economists had expected growth of 2.8%.

The speech of the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Raphael Bostic, was rather optimistic.

Bostic said that a gradual increase in rates would lead to an increase in inflation above the target level and the economy is close or has already reached full employment.

He also noted that the Fed will continue to closely monitor the signs of rising price pressure, as inflation is close to achieving the target level.

According to the representative of the Fed, the main risk for the US economy is associated with uncertain prospects for trade.

The buyers of the euro managed to hold within the minimum of the month in yesterday's session, which indicates an upcoming upward correction. However, for this it is necessary to break above the resistance level of 1.1890, where the areas of 1.1930 and 1.1970 open.

The New Zealand dollar collapsed against the US dollar after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left the official interest rate unchanged at 1.75%, saying that monetary policy will remain stimulating for a long time.

According to the RBNZ, the growth of the world economy will support the demand for New Zealand exports, and government and consumer spending will support GDP growth. Economists predict annual inflation of 2% in the fourth quarter of 2020, while the current level was previously expected in the third quarter. The official interest rate is also expected at 2% in the first quarter of 2020.

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Data on the Chinese economy have passed without a trace for commodity currencies. According to the report, China's consumer price index rose by 1.8% in April compared to the same period last year. It is important to note that in March, the growth was 2.1%.

As noted in the report, the main pressure on the index was created by falling prices for pork. Compared with April 2017, it decreased by 16.1%. Prices for non-food products rose by 2.1%. Economists predicted that in April, consumer prices will rise by 1.9%.

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Whatever the euro does, the total will be one

EUR / USD

On Wednesday, neither bulls nor bears showed themselves on the market. There were no strong reasons for the movement, and political developments in Iran, NAFTA, and re-elections in Italy still require further details and any development. The industrial production volume in France for April showed a decline of 0.4% against the forecast of + 0.4%. Italy's retail sales in March decreased by 0.2% against the expected growth of 0.1%. The US data also came in slightly weaker than expected. Producer Price Index (PPI) for April added 0.1% against expectations of 0.2%, while the base PPI coincided with the forecast level of 0.2%. The final evaluation for wholesale inventories in commercial warehouses for March were revised downward from 0.5% to 0.3%, with an expectation of an increase to 0.6%. Nevertheless, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta counted the data as part of 4% GDP growth for the second quarter. The US stock index Dow Jones added 0.75%, as US oil companies are clearly pleased with the growth of oil (Exxon Mobil 2.36%, Chevron 1.70%). Even in OPEC, they started talking about losing the point to maintain the current production quotas. The growth of oil brought pressure to the dollar, but, on the other hand, this pressure negates the growth of US government bond yields. Yesterday, the yield of 10-year securities increased from 2.976% to 2.995% (in the moment reached 3.014%).

Today is holiday in Germany, France, and Switzerland. The main event of the day will be the decision of the Bank of England on monetary policy. Investors do not expect a change in the rate, but if the balance of votes shifts towards and increase by 3-6 against 2-7 for instance, as it shown at the last meeting, then the correction for the pound may take place along with the euro's growth.

On the United States, there are important indicators on inflation. The base CPI for April is expected to grow by 0.2%, which on an annualized basis can show an increase from 2.1% to 2.2% YoY. The total CPI is expected to grow by 0.3%, which on an annualized basis could increase from 2.4% to 2.5% YoY. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits is projected at 219 thousand against 211 thousand last week. At 7:00 PM London time, the budget report for April will be published, with a forecast at $ 201.2 billion compared to -208.7 billion in March. Although in April, the traditional surplus linked with the payment of taxes to the budget will shown an expected figure to be in the record of US history. The last record was in April last year at 182 billion dollars (on that day the euro fell by only 10 points).

Thus, the behavior of the euro is not defined in the current situation even after a nearly monthly decline (since April 17), by which only 3 days were correctional. Regardless of whether the correction happens or not, we are expecting the euro in the range of 1.1710 / 20.

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* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

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Excessive conservatism of the Bank of England

GBP / USD

Yesterday, the British pound had significantly fell by 2 points. On the other hand, there was a certain confusion about the dollar in line with the announcement of a mass political events, such as the US withdrawal from the deal on Iran's nuclear program, the preparation of the meeting of Donald Trump with Kim Jong-un in Singapore, the final straight line under the new NAFTA agreement, and disputes about the date of re-elections in Italy. With these events, the dollar index increased by 0.03%, while investors were just waiting for the meeting of the Bank of England today.

Investors do not expect changes in the rate, but they will be delighted even by the shift of votes upwards even in one voice - 3-6 against 2-7 earlier. If this does not happen, the British pound can safely continue the decline, as industrial production in the current releases does not bode optimism. Industrial Production in March could show an increase of 0.1% after the same weak growth (0.1%) in February. Production in the manufacturing industry is expected at -0.2%, and production in the construction sector is projected to fall by 2.1% after -1.6% a month earlier. The UK commodity trade balance for March is projected to deteriorate from -10.2 billion pounds to -11.2 billion pounds.

The main event is the expected fall of the pound to 1.3435. In case of the expected surprise from the Bank of England, then growth toward 1.3710 is possible.

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* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The Australian dollar in traditional outsiders

AUD / USD

Yesterday, the Australian dollar failed to stand out from the general range of major currencies and closed the day by 7 points. In adjacent markets (with the exception of oil), the situation was also flat, as the oil added 3.2%, iron ore -0.5%, copper and gas remained virtually unchanged, wheat fell 0.6%, and meat traded mixed.

After the meeting of the National Library of New Zealand this morning, the New Zealand dollar loses about 70 points in line with the statement of the Central Bank to keep the current policy (current rate 1.75%) "long enough". Also in China, INC in April fell from 2.1% YoY to 1.8% YoY.

There is nothing new on the commodity markets, except from oil growth and the prospects for a corrective growth of the US dollar seems short-term, as the Australian currency may react weakly to it. We are looking forward to a decline in the AUD / USD currency pair in the range of 0.7375 / 85.

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* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of EUR/JPY for May 10, 2018

EUR/JPY

The bullish effort that is already in place has continued – in the context of a downtrend. This still pales into insignificance when compared to the overall bearish bias, and it should ultimately give good short-selling opportunities. There is a huge Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and the price is expected to continue going southwards.

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The EMA 11 is below the EMA 56, and the RSI period 14 is below the level of 50 (not yet above it). The market is below the supply zone of 130.50, and moving towards anther supply zone at 131.00. The targeted demand zone would be breached to the downside today or tomorrow. The bears are still under control.

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Daily analysis of USD/JPY for May 10, 2018

USD/JPY

A rise in the bullish momentum was witnessed. This has given credence to the recent bullishness in the market, which gives credence to the recent bullish bias on the market. The supply level at 110.00 has already been tested and it would be breached to the upside, as another supply level at 110.50 is targeted.

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Some fundamental figures are expected today and they will have impact on the market. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56, and the RSI period 14 is above the level 50. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of USD/CHF for May 10, 2018

USD/CHF

The situation in the market remains unchanged. The USD/CHF pair has been consolidating between the support level at 1.0000 (a great psychological level) and the resistance level at 1.0050. The consolidation has been going on for a few days, but there would soon be a breakout in the market, which would most probably favor bulls. The outlook on the market continues to be bright.

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The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56, and the Williams' % Range period 20 is in the overbought region. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, which makes short trades illogical at the moment.

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Global macro overview for 10/05/2018

The decision of the Bank of England will be published on Thursday, May 10 at 01:00 pm GMT. Market participants expect the interest rate to stay at 0.50%. Together with the decision, the Inflation Report will be published with economic forecasts.

In the data from the last meeting, the biggest blow was a terrible GDP growth reading after the first quarter, which showed a minimal increase of 0.1% (the slowest since the fourth quarter of 2012). Difficult weather conditions in this period are indicated as the main culprit, although there are also no votes, can everything really be dumped for a prolonged winter? On the other hand, the labor market remains strong, wages accelerate and outpace inflation, and the unemployment rate has already fallen below the NAIRU equilibrium level. And if it was not for fear of Brexit, BoE would have started aggressively tightening politics for a long time.

Hence, although in the description of the data already published, the BoE message should contain a dovish language with regard to growth and inflation, it is doubtful that the bank would opt for a clear revision of the outlook under the influence of one weaker series. A potential hawkish risk is to downplay readings from the first quarter as charged with one-off events. A new projection assuming a rebound in the second quarter will be an additional argument that the bank will look for an opportunity to raise earlier. The distribution of votes in the vote to keep the interest rate to stay at 7-2 with Saunders and McCafferty opposed, but the risk lies in the third vote for the increase from Vlieghe. In his last comment, Vlieghe pointed to the strength of the labor market and the need to remove the monetary stimulus earlier. The change in the distribution of votes to 6-3 confirms that the bank does not pay much attention to weaker data and remains at the "three hikes in three years" rate set in February.

Expectations for a rate hike have moved away in time and the market is discounting the full hike only in November 2018. It is difficult to imagine that at the conference President Carney would even further weaken these expectations and, in the worst case scenario, he would repeat that the hike this year is "probable". Given the impetus that the market abandoned long positions in the pound in the second half of April, now the bar for hawkish surprises should be suspended quite low and it will be easier to start a fresh start in rebuilding GBP.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame before the BoE interest rate decision is made. Two possible scenarios are available here and both of them depends on the nature of the BoE statement. In a case of a dovish statement from BoE, the market should remain in a horizontal consolidation zone between the levels of 1.3486 - 1.3608. On the other hand, any hawkish statements or comments from BoE will likely result in a breakout above the technical resistance at the level of 1.3608 and an impulsive and sudden move upward towards the levels of 1.3708 and even 1.3889.

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Will the Bank of England be shaken?

Eurozone

The euro continues to decline both under the influence of internal causes, such as slowing economic activity and weak inflation, and under the influence of external factors, namely the rate of strengthening of the US dollar, which is a direct consequence of a number of foreign policy steps taken by Trump.

Germany does not yet show signs of overcoming some slowdown in the economy. The volume of production orders in March fell by 0.9% while year on year growth slowed from 3.5% to 3.1%. The growth of industrial production slightly exceeded forecasts. Exports and imports for the month of March, in contrast, were worse than forecasts.

It is a day off today in Germany, so the market is more subtle than usual and can react to the outcome of the meeting of the Bank of England.

On Friday, Mario Draghi will perform. The preliminary plan of his speech is not connected with monetary policy. However, some comments may be sound. At the moment, most macroeconomic indicators for the euro area look rather weak and some slowdown is a reality. This gives the ECB the right to somewhat soften the rhetoric but the plan to reduce the asset repurchase program continues and will be curtailed in any case.

At this time, there is no reason to expect a reversal of the euro. Only verbal intervention by Draghi is possible. For example, he can announce the temporary nature of low inflation and for a number of objective criteria, the euro will continue to fall. A decrease to 1.1550 is the most likely development of events in the short term.

United Kingdom

Until recently, the markets were confident that the Bank of England at the meeting in May will raise the rate by a quarter of a point, responding to high inflation and labor market improvements. However, the latest macroeconomic data show that the UK economy is far from all so bright. The GDP growth rate in the first quarter was only 0.1%, PMI is steadily declining, and many indices point not to the economic growth, but to its slowdown.

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Of course, not everything is bad. Unemployment has decreased from 4.4% to 4.2% since the last meeting and wage growth rates again look quite confident, but still, these are not enough to confidently predict a rate hike.

Most experts point out that they are waiting not for the cancellation of BoE plans, but only for their transfer to August, when the third extended meeting this year will take place.

The pound today may be in a state of increased volatility. If the rate is not raised, then most likely, there will be a limited reduction of the pound to 1.3490, followed by a lateral withdrawal. If the Bank of England still surprises the markets and the rate increases, then the reaction will be super-volatile and unpredictable, as the markets simultaneously will evaluate new forecasts for inflation and GDP, which, most likely, will not be too optimistic.

Oil

The decision of Donald Trump to exit the nuclear deal with Iran led to a sharp rise in oil prices. The cost of the July contract for Brent came close to $78 per barrel, and this is obviously not the limit.

The reason is simple: Iran produces almost 4 million barrels per day, being the third largest OPEC member by production, and it is logical that the next steps of the US administration will be aimed at creating obstacles to the sale of Iranian oil in the market by putting pressure on buyers. This threat forced France and Germany to distance themselves from the US and maintain their participation in the deal, but could they resist the pressure? In this, there are serious doubts.

The development of the situation may provoke OPEC + to soften the terms of the agreement somewhat. If such chances are significant, we will learn about them long before the OPEC + meeting in June. Meanwhile, quotes continue to grow, and is expected to reach $80 per barrel in in the short term.

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Geopolitics for a strong dollar

The geopolitical factors are again in the foreground: America's withdrawal from the "nuclear deal" with Iran under pretexts was expected with certain fears but the markets met this news with surprising calm. Stock markets in the US and Europe are trading in the green zone, the growth of yields on government bonds resumed, and only oil rushed up, as markets can't ignore the threat of war in the Persian Gulf.

The report on US consumer inflation for the month of April will be published today. Forecasts are contradictory. The slowdown in the growth rate of the average wage creates a threat to consumer demand. GDP growth in the 1st quarter slowed to 2.3%, and in the first place, the slowdown was due to a drop in consumer spending. Published on Wednesday, data on production prices turned out to be worse than forecast. The growth in April was 2.6% against 3.0% in March while the mortgage lending index again decreased.

It would seem that the trend is negative, and it should have affected inflation expectations. However, the most accurate indicator, the yield of 5-year inflation-protected bonds Tips, has reached 2.1% as of May 8, and this is the best result for more than 5 years.analytics5af3e6fdb28b2.png

Thus, the report on inflation, according to the market, will show the growth of consumer prices, which means that the chances of a more aggressive rate increase this year will grow. This is one of the most important bullish factors for the dollar.

In the current year, the Fed intends to reduce its investments in government bonds by $ 228 billion, while the sale of government securities and by foreign investors is continuing. The increase in yields, in turn, will provoke an increase in the government's interest payments. This is a serious threat in the conditions of a rapidly growing deficit of the federal budget. It is necessary to return to the market buyers' treasuries, and this is exactly what Trump is doing, masking his actions with tariff wars and other. At first glance, these are inadequate steps.

Next week, a new stage of negotiations with China will begin. Vice Premier Liu He will leave for the United States. On one hand, this is a positive news, because as long as negotiations continue, there is a chance for an end result that suits both sides. However, there are also negative factors. The entire package of demands from the US is so severe that China is unlikely to agree to satisfy it in full.

In particular, the US requires China to abandon the "Strategy 2025", which is focused on the growth of technology and the transition to an innovative economy. Such a demand is unacceptable for China but the US is acting harshly, already significantly restricting China's investment in the US, and moreover, the action plan is fully developed and implemented.

The procedure for trade restrictions for the first $50 billion in full swing. On May 11, public comments will be made before the hearings. Public hearings in the Congress will be held on May 15, 22, and probably more in late May and in early June. Mnuchin intends to announce new investment restrictions for China on 100 billion dollars. What is China doing in this situation?

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Reducing the trade balance deficit to $200 billion is also completely unrealistic, even though China is ready to partially meet the requirements. And if so, then the escalation is inevitable. Apparently, this is Trump's strategy: to put forward unrealizable and stringent requirements, the refusal of which is then changed to the promise of buying treasuries. China is not given the opportunity to invest in the most interesting investment projects in the US, and are forced to buy low-yielding securities.

The way out of the nuclear deal with Iran is exactly the same tool aimed, first of all, at Europe. It will give Trump the opportunity to exert pressure on the companies of Germany, France, and China working with Iran, using the same arguments: the abolition of sanctions in exchange for financing the American economy.

The dollar, in current conditions, can't become cheaper, since the whole strategy is aimed at increasing demand for the American currency. How will such a strategy be successful will be shown in the near future.

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Technical analysis on USDX for May 10, 2018

The Dollar index is showing reversal signs. After the bearish divergence warnings by the RSI, the price broke out and below the bullish channel. Two attempts to break above the important 93 level resistance have so far failed. The price pops up above resistance, but sellers push it back below it.

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Blue lines - bullish channel

Downward sloping blue line - bearish divergence

The Dollar index has most probably made a short-term top at least. Support is at 92.90. A four close below it will open the way for a push lower towards cloud support at 92.35. Important support area is found at 92.35-91.80. A break below this zone will open the way for a bigger correction lower. So far, the trend remains bullish, but a pullback is imminent.

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Technical analysis and trading recommendations for the USD / CAD currency pair as of May 8, 2018

The USD/CAD currency pair still managed to overcome the two-week outset, issuing the result of the pulse candles. giving out the result of the impulse candles. In the previous review, we have already analyzed a looped course on the Canadian, where it was recommended to track price fixation outside the boundaries of 1.2800 / 1.2920. Today, the moment has come when the quotation managed to overcome the upper limit, where we quickly come close to the psychological level of 1.3000 while maintaining the "bullish" interest in the market.

Whether the upside potential will remain, this level will tell us the level of 1.3000, where in the case of fixation above, it will open the way to 1.3123. Otherwise, we'll see a rollback from 1.3000 to 1.2920.

Key Levels

Resistance: 1,3000 *; 1,3120

Support: 1.2910; 1,2800; 1.2660

* Psychological level

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Indicator analysis. Daily review of GBP / USD pair for May 9, 2018

On Wednesday, the following strong calendar news comes out:

- 12.30 London time, USD, producer price index (PPI) (m / m) (Apr), the expected value is 0.2% compared to the previous value of 0.3%;

- 14.30 London time, USD, stocks of crude oil, the expected value is -1.167M compared to the previous value of 6.218M.

Trend analysis (Figure 1).

On Tuesday, the price moved in the side channel. On Wednesday, there is a high probability for the market to continue its downtrend. A complex analysis will more accurately determine where the price will go next.

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Fig. 2 (daily chart).

Complex analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - down;

- candle analysis - neutral;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- Weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

On Wednesday, the GBP / USD pair will move down towards the first target of 1.3462 with 38.2% retracement level.

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Fractal analysis for major currency pairs as of May 10

Dear colleagues.

For the EUR / USD pair, we expect a movement towards correction after the breakdown of 1.1902. For the GBP / USD pair, we expect a correction to take place after the breakdown at 1.3614. For the of USD / CHF, the continuation of the to downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 0.9976. For the USD / JPY pair, the price forms the potential for the upward movement of May 4. For the EUR / JPY pair, the price is in correction and forms the potential for the top of May 8. For the GBP / JPY pair, the price forms the potential for the top of May 8.

Forecast for May 10:

Analytical review of currency pairs in the scale of H1:

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For the of EUR / USD pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 1.2013, 1.1987, 1.1936, 1.1902 and 1.1844. Here, we follow the downward structure of April 17. At the moment, the price is near the limit values and we expect a correction. Short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 1.1902 - 1.1936. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.1987. The range of 1.1987 - 1.2013 is noise. Before reaching this level, we expect the initial conditions for the upward cycle.

The main trend is the downward cycle from April 17. We expect a correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1902 Take profit: 1.1934

Buy 1.1938 Take profit: 1.1985

Sell: Take profit:

Sell: Take profit:

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For the GBP / USD pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are 1.3847, 1.3752, 1.3684, 1.3614, 1.3614 and 1.3482. Here, we expect the movement towards correction. The upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.3614. In this case, the target is 1.3684. Short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 1.3684 - 1.3752. The breakdown of the last value will lead to movement. Here, the target is 1.3847. Up to this level, the design of potential initial conditions for the top is possible.

For the downward movement, we have not yet determines the subsequent goals.

The main trend is a downward structure from April 17. We expect a correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3616 Take profit: 1.3682

Buy: 1.3684 Take profit: 1.3750

Sell: Take profit:

Sell: Take profit:

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For the USD / CHF pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 1.0025, 0.9976, 0.9939, 0.9910, 0.9874 and 0.9854. Here, we follow the upward structure of April 10. Currently, we expect a correction. The potential value for the top is the level of 1.0025. The movement towards this level is expected after the breakdown of 0.9976.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 0.9939 - 0.9910. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.9874. The range of 0.9874 - 0.9854 is noise.

The main trend is the upward structure from April 10. We expect a correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9978 Take profit: 1.0025

Buy: Take profit:

Sell: 0.9939 Take profit: 0.9912

Sell: 0.9908 Take profit: 0.9876

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For the USD / JPY pair, the key levels on a scale are: 110.82, 110.66, 110.20, 109.96, 109.56, 109.35, 108.99 and 108.70. Here, we follow the formation of the upward structure of May 4. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 109.96. In this case, the target is 110.20. Near this level is the consolidation of the price. The breakdown at 110.20 should be accompanied by a pronounced movement towards the level of 110.66. The potential value for the top is the level of 110.82. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback downwards.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 109.56 - 109.35. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 108.99. This level is the key support for the top of May 4.

The main trend is the formation of the upward structure of May 4.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 109.96 Take profit: 110.20

Buy: 110.24 Take profit: 110.64

Sell: 109.55 Take profit: 109.37

Sell: 109.30 Take profit: 109.05

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For the CAD / USD pair, the key H1 scale levels are: 1.2925, 1.2886, 1.2863, 1.2815, 1.2787, 1.2763 and 1.2701. Here, we follow the formation of a downward structure from May 8. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.2815. In this case, the target is 1.2787. In the area of 1.2787 - 1.2763 is the consolidation of the price. The potential value for the bottom is the level of 1.2701. The movement towards this level is expected after the breakdown of 1.2760.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 1.2863 - 1.2886. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.2925. This level is the key support for the downward structure from May 8.

The main trend is the formation of a downward structure from May 8.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2863 Take profit: 1.2884

Buy: 1.2888 Take profit: 1.2925

Sell: 1.2815 Take profit: 1.2790

Sell: 1.2760 Take profit: 1.2705

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For the AUD / USD pair, the key H1 scale levels are: 0.7514, 0.7483, 0.7463, 0.7424, 0.7402, 0.7334 and 0.7302. Here, we follow the local downward structure of May 4. Short-term downward movement is expected in the area of 0.7424 - 0.7402. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 0.7334. The potential value for the bottom is the level of 0.7302. Upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 0.7463 - 0.7483. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.7514. This level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is a local structure for the bottom of May 4.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7463 Take profit: 0.7480

Buy: 0.7485 Take profit: 0.7512

Sell: 0.7422 Take profit: 0.7405

Sell: 0.7400 Take profit: 0.7340

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For the of EUR / JPY pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 131.64, 131.16, 130.62, 130.32, 129.70, 129.37, 128.91 and 128.62. Here, we follow the downward structure from April 24. At the moment, the price is in correction and forms the potential for the top of May 8. Short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 129.70 - 129.37. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced movement towards the level of 128.91. In the area of 128.91 - 128.62 is the consolidation of the price and from here we expect a rollback into correction.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 130.32 - 130.62. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 131.16. This level is the key support for the downward structure. Its breakdown will lead to the formation of an upward structure. Here, the potential target is 131.64.

The main trend is the downward structure from April 24, the correction stage.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 130.32 Take profit: 130.60

Buy: 130.66 Take profit: 131.16

Sell: 129.70 Take profit: 129.40

Sell: 129.33 Take profit: 128.95

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For the GBP / JPY pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 149.81, 149.18, 148.67, 147.63, 146.88, 147.75 and 145.12. Here, we follow the local downward structure of April 26. At the moment, the price is in correction and forms the potential for the upward movement of May 8. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 147.63. In this case, the target is 146.88. Near this level is the consolidation of the price. The breakdown of 146.85 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 145.75. The potential value for the bottom is the level 145.12. From this level, we expect a rollback towards correction.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 148.67 - 149.18. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 149.81.

The main trend is a local downward structure from April 26, the correction stage.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 148.67 Take profit: 149.15

Buy: 149.22 Take profit: 149.75

Sell: 147.60 Take profit: 146.95

Sell: 146.85 Take profit: 145.90

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