March 8, 2019 : EUR/USD is demonstrating a continuation bearish flag pattern.

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On November 13, the EUR/USDpair demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the current bullish movement above the depicted short-term bullish channel (In BLUE) was initiated.

Bullish fixation above 1.1430 was needed to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1520. However, the market has been demonstrating obvious bearish rejection around 1.1430 few times so far.

The EUR/USD pair has lost its bullish momentum since January 31 when a bearish engulfing candlestick was demonstrated around 1.1514 where another descending high was established then.

This allowed the current bearish movement to occur towards 1.1300-1.1270 where the lower limit of the depicted DAILY channel came to meet the pair.

Last week, significant bullish recovery has emerged on Tuesday. However, By the end of last week's consolidations on Thursday, the pair has failed to fixate above 1.1400 with early signs of bearish rejection.

This allowed the current bearish movement to occur towards 1.1175. Moreover, a bearish flag pattern remains valid if the current bearish persistence below 1.1250 is maintained on daily basis. Pattern target is projected towards 1.1000.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

March 8, 2019 : GBP/USD is retracing towards its newly-established Demand-Zone.

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On December 12, the previously-dominating bearish momentum came to an end when the GBP/USD pair visited the price levels of 1.2500 where the backside of the broken daily uptrend was located.

Since then, the current bullish swing has been taking place until January 28 when the GBP/USD pair lost its bullish persistence above 1.3155.

Hence, the short-term scenario turned bearish towards 1.2920 then 1.2800 where the previous bearish pullback was terminated.

On February 15, significant bullish recovery was demonstrated around 1.2800-1.2820 resulting in the recent bullish swing. Quick bullish movement was demonstrated towards 1.3155, 1.3240 and 1.3300.

Early signs of bearish reversal/retracement were demonstrated around the price level of 1.3317. Bearish pullback was expected to extend down towards 1.3150 which failed to offer enough bullish support.

That's why, further bearish decline took place towards the price levels of 1.3050-1.3000 where the depicted demand-zone is currently located.

Bullish persistence above the newly-established depicted demand-level (1.3050-1.3020) is mandatory to prevent further bearish decline.

On the other hand, any bearish breakdown below 1.3020 invalidates the short-term bullish scenario allowing a quick bearish movement to occur towards 1.2950-1.2920 where the next prominent demand zone is located.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders can consider the current bearish pullback around 1.3050 as a valid BUY entry. S/L to be located below 1.3000. T/P levels to be located around 1.3140 and 1.3240 initially.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified Wave Analysis. Overview of GOLD for the week of March 8

Large TF:

Since August last year, the trend of gold has been rising. Analysis of the wave structure shows its incompleteness. In recent months, the course is adjusted.

Small TF:

The price decline of February 20 completes the year-long correctional model, which has the form of an expanding triangle. The price reached the upper limit of the strong reversal zone.

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Forecast and recommendations:

Despite the fact that there are no turn signals, the continuation of the current gold correction is not expected. Wave algorithm indicates a speedy recovery of the ascending course. Traders need to keep track of emerging reversal signals in order to search for entry into long positions.

Resistance zones:

- 1375.0 / 1380.0

- 1315.0 / 1320.0

Support areas:

- 1280.0 / 1275.0

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). On each of the considered scales of the graph, the last, incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The fate of Britain and the pound will be decided on Tuesday

Next week, the volatility of British pound will increase as traders expect an unpredictable Brexit vote. It is noted that on Tuesday, March 12, it will become a kind of "moment of truth" for the UK and the European Union. On this day, the whole world will know whether Britain will either accept the conditions of the European Union, which is almost unbelievable, or the EU will give way to the United Kingdom. Also, another possibility is to postpone the start date of Britain's exit from the union at a later time from March 29 of this year. Theoretically, one can even expect a second referendum on the issue of British exit from the EU. However, pound fluctuations are inevitable. The most likely scenario for movement of the GBP/USD pair will range at $1.30-$1.32.

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Recall that earlier this week, negotiations between officials of Great Britain and the European Union ended without an agreement. Theresa May sent the Attorney General and member of the ruling Conservative Party, Geoffrey Cox to Brussels to bring process the necessary changes to the Brexit deal to pass the agreement through the country's parliament.

London's desire to change the position of the backstop, which is a safety plan that guarantees a clear border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. Many British parliamentarians are unhappy with this part of the Brexit deal.

Cox expects that European officials will agree to an independent arbitration of the backstop controversial position so that it can be terminated without the approval of the European Court as Brussels is against such decision.

Meanwhile, May have several days at her disposal to return the revised agreement to parliament. Each side expects the other to make concessions.

At least for now, the risk of "hard" Brexit is lessened. If the Prime Minister's deal is rejected on Tuesday, the parliament is more likely to vote for an extended exit date, while pro-European lawmakers will try to force the government to soften or cancel the "divorce". In addition, reducing the threat of exit without a transaction reduces the need for concessions from the euro block.

According to a report of Bloomberg from cited sources, the EU is ready to seek compromises. The news brought into life the British currency, which briefly soared by 40 points.

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European officials are trying to break the deadlock negotiations and make the British a new proposal. According to sources, it implies more concessions from the bloc than promised by the European Commission Chairman Jean-Claude Juncker and EU President Donald Tusk in the January message.

However, the new initiative still does not fully meet the requirements of England, which cooled the ardor of pound fans. In general, the mood remains positive and prolongs hope and the EU is ready to wait for a response from Britain and reciprocal concessions.

In case of "hard" Brexit

Despite the optimism, the "hard" exit scenario is not excluded. This development contributes to the fall of the pound against the dollar in the $1.20 region as suggest by currency strategists who participated in the Reuters survey.

Nevertheless, the majority of respondents expressed confidence that the parties would be able to reach a compromise. Their average forecast for the GBP/USD pair at the end of March is $1.32.

Another survey by Reuters showed that the likelihood of a "hard" Brexit fell to 15%. However, in the opinion of one respondent, the pound may collapse to parity in the event of an exit without a deal.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified Wave Analysis. Overview of EUR / JPY for the week of March 8

Large TF:

From mid-2016, price fluctuations of the pair are determined by the rising wave algorithm. The upward movement of the cross, which started at the beginning of the current year, completed the correctional phase of the trend wave, starting the next stage.

Small TF:

The bullish wave of January 3 develops as an impulse. Over the past week, the price of the pair has decreased, completing the hidden correction formed in February. The price has reached strong support, but the reversal signals on the chart have not yet been observed.

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Forecast and recommendations:

The potential reduction of the pair is close to exhaustion. This week, within the framework of settlement support, a reversal and the beginning of a price rise are expected. Traders are advised to track the buy signals of the instrument.

Resistance zones:

- 126.40 / 126.90

Support areas:

- 124.40 / 123.90

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). On each of the considered scales of the graph, the last, incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD. March 8. The trading system. "Regression Channels". The UK may remain in the EU

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - up.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -136.7444

The GBP / USD currency pair resumed the downward movement, failing to overcome the moving average line. Thus, this time, the movement of the pair was logical in terms of the fundamental component. As we have repeatedly noted, there is no compelling reason to strengthen the British currency. Nevertheless, a pound from time to time shows growth based on rumors and expectations. Then, when these rumors and expectations are not met, the pound decline is resumed. New posts on Brexit over the past day were not available to traders. Thus, the last important information remains the ultimatum of the EU to the UK, which is expressed in the fact that over the next 48 hours (less) London must provide a plan to overcome the current stalemate in the negotiations. Such an interpretation causes smiles among traders, since Brussels offers London 48 hours to find a solution that it could not find earlier in several months. Moreover, for some reason, it is London that should search, and not both sides. In general, we still believe that Brussels does not want to let Britain out of the alliance and, perhaps, still hopes that if it is not compliant in the negotiations, the "hard" Brexit option will scare the British parliament and Brexit will not happen at all. We would not exclude such an option, and moreover, it now looks the most likely.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.3062

S2 - 1.3000

S3 - 1.2939

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.3123

R2 - 1.3184

R3 - 1.3245

Trading recommendations:

The pair GBP / USD resumed its downward movement. Thus, short positions with targets at 1.3062 and 1.3000 are now relevant before the start of a new round of correction, which Heikin Ashi will signal with purple bars.

Buy orders are recommended to open in case the pair manages to gain a foothold above the moving average. In this case, the tendency for the instrument to change again is upward and the long positions with targets at 1.3245 and 1.3306 will become relevant.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. March 8. The trading system. "Regression Channels". The ECB meeting is over. All focus on NonFarm Payrolls

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The junior linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -181.2993

The EUR / USD currency pair resumed its downward movement on Friday, March 8, after the announcement of the ECB meeting and press conference. The main outcomes of the meetings were the reduction of inflation and GDP forecasts, the announcement of the launch of the LTRO program for long-term lending to banks, and the postponement of the completion of the period of low rates to at least the end of 2019. In general, the meeting of the regulator is absolutely disastrous for the euro currency, which only confirms the concerns of market participants about the recession in the eurozone. This is also evident from macroeconomic indicators, which are much more frustrating than encouraging. Meanwhile, the euro made its way through the important support area of 1.1250 - 1.1290, which is tested for strength at least five times. Now for the euro, the road is open down to price parity with the US dollar. On the last trading day of the week in the United States, the publishing of changes in average wages, unemployment and new jobs created outside the agricultural sector are scheduled. These reports can greatly affect the movement of the pair, the question is which of the currencies will they help? It will depend on which way real values differ from forecasts. If the reports are strong, then the US dollar can close the week with a huge advantage.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1169

S2 - 1.1108

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1230

R2 - 1.1292

R3 - 1.1353

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair has resumed its downward movement. Thus, before the beginning of the upward correction, which the Heikin Ashi indicator will signal, short positions with targets of 1.1169 and 1.1108 are relevant.

Buy positions can be viewed after the price is fixed above the moving average line. In this case, the tendency for the instrument to change to ascending again, and the first target for the long positions will be 1.1353.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of the divergence of EUR / USD for March 8. A very important euro breakthrough

4h

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The EUR / USD pair on the 4-hour chart resumed the process of falling yesterday and completed the close under the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1218 on the new Fibo level grid. Thus, on March 8, the process of falling quotations can be continued in the direction of the next Fibo level of 127.2% - 1.1120. There are no emerging divergences today. The rebound of the pair from the Fibo level of 127.2% will work in favor of the EU currency and some growth in the direction of the correctional level of 100.0%.

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from November 12, 2018, and January 10, 2019.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the pair completed a close below the Fibo level of 127.2% - 1.1285. As a result, the fall in quotations continues in the direction of the next correction level of 161.8% - 1.0941. Maturing divergences in the current chart are not observed in any indicator. Closing quotations above the Fibo level of 127.2% can be interpreted as a reversal in favor of the European currency and we can expect some growth in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1553.

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the EUR / USD pair can be made with the target of 1.1299 if the pair closes above the level of 1.1216, and the Stop Loss order with a correction level of 100.0%.

Sales of the EUR / USD pair can be carried out now with the target of 1.1120, and with a Stop Loss order above the level of 1.1216, since the pair completed closing below the Fibo level of 100.0%.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Plan on 08/03/2019

On March 7, the ECB struck at the euro: they sharply lowered its forecast for economic growth in the Eurozone from 1.7% to 1.1% in 2019. The ECB announced that it will launch a new program of liquidity injections into the Eurozone economy in September.

The euro fell sharply, breaking key levels down in the zone of 1.1215 - 1.1230.

On Friday, the markets are waiting for a report on employment in the United States, hence, a new round of falling euro is possible, as well as a strong rebound to the top.

We keep selling euro from 1.1315 and stop at breakeven.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Silver stocks may run out in 21 years, USGS says

According to the report of the US Geological Survey (USGS), which presents data on the production of silver in the world at the end of 2018, the global reserves of this precious metal may end in a few decades. The situation may change in the discovery of new large fields, experts say.

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In the USGS survey, it is noted that the world production of white metal increased by 0.7% to 27,000 tons last year. The largest producers of silver are from Mexico with 6,100 tons and Peru with 4,300 tons. The most significant growth in metal production in 2018 was observed in Russia and Argentina with over 7% increase. On the contrary, silver production in the USA for the first time in many years turned out to be below 1000 tons. The largest reserves of precious metals remained in Poland and Peru with 110,000 tons each country as emphasized by the USGS.

Based on data on annual silver mining in the world, experts from the US Geological Survey calculated that the existing reserves of precious metals about 560,000 tons would be enough for about 21 years. The forecast will remain in force that is if the extraction will be conducted in the current rhythm.

At the same time, USGS experts emphasize that the geological period of development depends on many factors. In addition to the technical equipment of mining companies precious metal, the cost is of paramount importance. If silver becomes more expensive, then the industry will receive new investments in geological exploration of new deposits. As a result, global reserves of white metal may increase, which will lead to an increase in the timing of silver production for a few more years.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for March 08, 2019

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Overview: The NZD/USD pair breached resistance which had turned into strong support at the level of 0.6705 this week. The level of 0.6705 coincides with a golden ratio, which is expected to act as major support today. The RSI is considered to be overbought, because it is above 70. The RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it is still strong above the moving average (100). Besides, note that the pivot point is seen at the point of 0.6882. This suggests that the pair will probably go up in the coming hours. Accordingly, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. In other words, buy orders are recommended to be placed above 0.6800 with the first target at the level of 0.6882. From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.6882 and further to the level of 0.6984. The level of 0.6984 will act as strong resistance. On the other hand, if there is a breakout at the support level of 0.6705, this scenario may become invalidated.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of AUD/USD for March 08, 2019

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Overview:

The AUD/USD pair is set above strong support at the level of 0.7046 which coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and 0.7168. This support has been rejected four times confirming the uptrend. Hence, the major support is seen at the level of 0.7046, because the trend is still showing strength above it. Accordingly, the pair is still in the uptrend in the area of 0.7046 and 0.7168. The AUD/USD pair is trading in the bullish trend from the last support line of 0.7112 towards the first resistance level of 0.7168 in order to test it. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in the bullish trending market. Now, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.7168 and further to the level of 0.7290. The level of 0.7389 will act as the major resistance and the double top is already set at the point of 0.7389. At the same time, if there is a breakout at the support levels of 0.7112 and 0.7046, this scenario may be invalidated. Overall, however, we still prefer the bullish scenario.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of the divergence of GBP / USD for March 8. The pound is experiencing difficulties with the continuation of the

4h

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The GBP / USD pair on a 4-hour chart is a reversal in favor of the American currency and consolidation below the correction level of 76.4% - 1.3094. Thus, the fall process can be continued on March 8 in the direction of the next Fibo level of 61.8% - 1.2969. There are no emerging divergences today. Closing the pair above the correction level of 76.4% will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the euro currency and some growth towards the Fibo level of 100.0% - 1.3300.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from September 20, 2018, and January 3, 2019.

1h

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On the hourly chart, the pair performed a fall to the correction level of 50.0% - 1.3062 and began the process of growth in the direction of the correctional level of 38.2% - 1.3130 on the new Fibo grid of levels. Fixing the course of the pair below the Fibo level of 50.0% will increase the chances of the pair to continue falling in the direction of the correction level of 61.8% - 1.2993. Hanging quotes from the Fibo level of 38.2% will similarly work in favor of the US dollar and the resumption of the pair's fall.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from February 14, 2019, and February 27, 2019.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the GBP / USD pair can be made with the target of 1.3130 and a Stop Loss order below the level of 50.0% if the pair bounces off the level of 1.3062 (hourly chart).

Sales of the GBP / USD pair can be made with the target of 1.2993 and a Stop Loss order above the 50.0% level if the pair closes below the 1.3062 level (hourly chart).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EURUSD: The ECB will not raise interest rates this year, but, on the contrary, will launch the TLTRO program

The euro fell significantly in tandem with the US dollar and lost a number of positions against other world currencies. Despite the fact that the growth rate of the eurozone economy accelerated at the end of 2018, the European Central Bank revised its attitude towards future monetary policy, which led to the weakening of the euro.

According to the EU Statistics Agency, the eurozone's GDP in the 4th quarter of 2018 grew by 0.9% on an annualized basis, after increasing by 0.6% in the 3rd quarter. The initial estimate was at 0.8%.

The report indicates that the main support to the economy was provided by export growth, increased government spending, and higher consumer spending. Compared with the 4th quarter of 2017, eurozone GDP grew by only 1.1%.

Let me remind you that quite recently, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development lowered its forecast for economic growth in the eurozone in 2019 to 1%, while initially it was expected to grow by 1.8%.

The key moment of yesterday was the decision of the European Central Bank to leave the refinancing rate unchanged, at the level of 0.0%.

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As expected, the central bank announced a new round of cheap long-term lending to European banks. The program is called TLTRO, and the first loans for banks will be available as early as September of this year. Their repayment period will be 2 years.

In its report, the ECB also lowered the forecast for the euro zone's GDP growth for the current year to 1.1%, whereas in December it was expected to grow by 1.7%. A review of monetary policy prospects is directly related to inflation forecasts. The ECB expects that the annual inflation rate in the current year will reach only 1.2% against an earlier forecast of 1.6%. Let me remind you that the target annual inflation rate is slightly less than 2%.

During his speech, ECB President Mario Draghi spoke in more detail about the changes that the regulator plans.

Draghi said that the deterioration in economic data indicates a further slowdown in economic growth in the eurozone in 2019, and a weakening economic impulse slows inflation to a target level. This suggests that the risks to economic growth in the eurozone are still biased to the downside.

The ECB still needs a significant degree of monetary stimulus, as recent data were very weak, reflecting low external demand and a number of other special factors.

Draghi also noted that the new TLTRO operations will help to ensure favorable conditions for bank lending, and the current TLTRO model fully reflects the changed economic conditions.

Well, the main thing that traders paid attention to and quickly began to get rid of the European currency was the statement that the planned timeline for raising rates in the advance indication was shifted from September of this year to December.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review for March 8, 2019 for the pair GBP / USD

On Friday, the price will move up before the news release. The first top target of 1.3135 is the rolling level of 23.6% (yellow dotted line).

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

On Friday, the price will move up before the news release. The first top target of 1.3135 is the rolling level of 23.6% (yellow dotted line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review for March 8, 2019 for the EUR / USD pair

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Friday, the price, before the news, may make the upper movement. The first upper target 1.1235 is a pullback level of 23.6% (blue dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Friday, the price, before the news, may make the upper movement. The first upper target 1.1235 is a pullback level of 23.6% (blue dashed line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of AUD/JPY for March 8, 2019

AUD lost significant momentum over JPY recently after downbeat economic reports from Australia along with the dovish RBA policy statement. The Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged. Thus, AUD is expected to struggle further against JPY.

On the other hand, the Australian economy has been facing headwinds. Dismal economic performance has been proved by downbeat data. The Australian Housing market took a downturn which was unlikely to fall after 27 years of recession-free expansion. According to RBA Governor Lowe, the labor market has become the most important factor for RBA's monetary policy assessment. Further tightening of the labor market will contribute to gradual improvement in the wages and income.

Recently Australian Retail Sales report was published with an uptick to 0.1% from the previous negative value of -0.4% but analysts had expected a bigger increase to 0.3%. Besides, Trade Balance showed an increase to 4.55B from the previous figure of 3.77B which was expected to decrease to 2.85B.

On the JPY side, today Average Cash Earning report was published with a decrease to 1.2% as expected from the previous value of 1.5%, Household Spending increased to 2.0% from the previous value of 0.1% which was expected to decrease to -0.5%, Bank lending decreased to 2.3% which was expected to be unchanged at 2.4%, and Current Account increased to 1.83T from the previous figure of 1.63T which was expected to decrease to 1.39T. Moreover, Final GDP also showed an increase to 0.5% from the previous value of 0.3% which was expected to be at 0.4%.

To sum up, JPY has been propped up by economic reports which helped JPY to sustain gains over weaker AUD. Australia released high impact economic reports this month, so not much of an impulsive counter-move is expected to regain momentum over JPY in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently trading below 78.50. The price is heading towards 77.50 and later towards 75.00 support area in the coming days. Though the price is still inside a corrective volatile range, being below the dynamic level under strong bearish pressure indicates further downward momentum. As the price remains below 80.00 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: plan for the European session on March 8. The pound continues to follow a trend

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

The breakthrough of the next lower limit of the short-term side channel retained the downward trend in the British pound. Currently, buyers have the task of returning and consolidating above the resistance of 1.3117, which will lead to a larger upward correction to the area of resistance at 1.3179, where the upper limit of the downward channel passes. In case the GBP/USD further declines, long positions can be considered on a false breakdown around 1.3049 or buy the pound to rebound from a new low of 1.2973.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

While trade will be conducted below the resistance of 1.3117, where the moving averages will pass, the pressure on the pound will continue. The formation of a false breakout in that area in the first half of the day will be a direct signal to sell the GBP/USD based on a test of a low of 1.3049 and an update of support at 1.2973, where I recommend taking profits. In case of growth above 1.3117, you can sell immediately to rebound from a high of 1.3179.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted below the 30-day and 50-day moving, which maintains the downward trend in the pound.

Bollinger bands

In case the pound decreases, support will be provided by the lower limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.3049. The upward correction will be limited to the upper limit around 1.3135, from where you can see selling of the pound.

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Indicator description

  • Moving Average (average sliding) 50 days - yellow
  • Moving Average (average sliding) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Wave analysis of GBP / USD for March 8. The pound is still declining and is waiting for March 12th.

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Wave counting analysis:

On March 7, the GBP / USD pair dropped by 90 bp, thus, there are all the necessary grounds for concluding on the continuation of building a new downtrend trend, or rather its first wave. The news background for the pair remains negative, as there are no positive reports on Brexit issues in the media. The EU and the UK continue to negotiate or continue to create the appearance of negotiations, since the public does not know anything about the new terms of the agreement. March 12 is approaching, and it is when voting on Brexit options will begin in Parliament. These days will be for the pound sterling, the next period X, after which the fateful decisions can be made.

Shopping goals:

1.3348 - 0.0% Fibonacci

Sales targets:

1.001 - 38.2% Fibonacci

1.2891 - 50.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The wave pattern still expects the construction of a downward set of waves. Therefore, sales are now expedient with targets at 1.00100 and 1.2891, which equates to 38.2% and 50.0% Fibonacci and a protective order above 1.3340. I recommended larger sales when receiving negative news from the UK about Brexit.

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ECB returns panic to markets

Before the publication of the employment report, contradictory data are received that increases the uncertainty in the markets and can lead to a sharp increase in volatility throughout the day.

The Fed's quarterly report showed that the threat of a slowdown in wage growth is still low. In 2018, the labor productivity in 4 square meters increased by 1.9%, which is slightly lower than the result of 3 quarters but above the forecast of 1.6%. The cost of labor increased by 2.0%, which reflects employer spending and its growth also indicates an uptrend in wages.

At the same time, the volume of assets of households and non-profit organizations decreased by 3.73 trillion. This has been the maximum decrease in the entire history of observations, even in 4 square meters. Back in 2008, losses amounted to 3.62 trillion. dollars with the fall of the stock market as the main reason. In December 2018, it showed the worst dynamics in history at this time interval.

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Challenger reported in a monthly report that employers cut 76,935 jobs in February, which is the maximum reduction in 3.5 years and 45% higher than the amount of January layoffs and 117% a year earlier. It is noted that the reduction in jobs tends to increase from the second half of 2018, along with the unconvincing ADP report. Meanwhile, the chances of seeing decent numbers on nonpharma are declining today.

If the market considers the February report to be weak, there may be a delayed reaction effect on a sharp deterioration in the trade balance and an increase in the budget deficit, which will increase the fears of a recession and the demand for defensive assets. Increased volatility is almost inevitable.

EUR / USD pair

Following the meeting on Thursday, the ECB changed the rhetoric, and not only lowered economic forecasts, as the players expected but also announced the launch of a new round of TLTRO bank lending, which was unexpected for the markets. It was assumed that the ECB would only mark such a possibility and the launch of the program itself will be postponed to a later date.

The decision is more than serious and directly indicates the growing threat of a slowdown in the eurozone and in the world as a whole. Back in December, the ECB predicted an increase of 1.7% in 2019 and this forecast was reduced to 1.1% on Thursday. On the press conference, Mario Draghi talked about the significant slowdown in economic growth. He stressed that the reason for the negative changes in the continuing uncertainty, which is associated with geopolitical factors, obviously, this refers to Brexit, as well as, the threat of protectionism wars with the Trump administration and emerging market vulnerabilities.

Also, the ECB lowered its forecast for inflation. If in December inflation was expected at the level of 1.6% per year, they only assumed 1.2% and 1.4% by 2020.

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It is clear that such a weak inflation forecast does not give any reason to wait for the growth of the interest rate in 2019 and its increase in 2020 is still questionable.

The next TLTRO round will begin in September of this year, with which its completion is scheduled for March 2021. The need for incentives is explained by the growing needs of banks in funding due to the threat of non-compliance with the ECB requirements.

The ECB decision caused significant changes in the markets. The stock markets of the eurozone countries went into the red zone and there was a sharp increase in demand for protective tools, in particular, for bonds. The yield on 10-year German T-bills fell to 0.062%, which is a strong bearish factor for the euro.

The chances of EUR/USD growth in the near future are close to zero. Consolidation at current levels can occur only in the event of the appearance of negative news for the dollar, capable of leveling the results of the ECB meeting. After yesterday's large-scale fall, EURUSD may return to the former support level of 1.1214, where short-term consolidation is possible, but then the fall should resume with the medium-term goal of the psychological mark at 1.10.

GBP / USD pair

The likelihood that the UK's withdrawal from the EU will not take place on the scheduled date of March 29. The decision will be to move at a later date, which is growing.

The pound is under pressure. Its technical growth is possible to 1.3140, however, the dominant direction is still south. An update of yesterday's low of 1.3067 is expected and an attempt to move to the support of 1.3015/20 is expected.

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EUR/USD: the euro received a ticket downwards

The results of the March meeting of the European Central Bank were fatal for the single currency: first, the regulator finally abandoned its intentions to increase the rate this year, and secondly, launched a new round of targeted long-term loans for banks, reaffirming the ECB's commitment to soft monetary policy. The rhetoric of Mario Draghi also wore a rather "dovish" character, complementing the general fundamental picture. The result of the March meeting exceeded the expectations of most experts, and this fact sent the euro into a knockout: against the dollar, the single currency broke through the support level of 1.1260 and headed towards the 11th figure, settling in a new-old price niche.

On the one hand, the issue of launching a new round of targeted long-term loans has long been in the air. Members of the regulator discussed this topic in December (to no avail), but in January bypassed this issue, thus providing indirect support to the European currency. But last month, some representatives of the ECB (in particular, Peter Pratt and Benoit Coeure) hinted that in March, the regulator will report a new round of TLTRO, despite the fact that the previous program ends in the middle of next year. As noted by members of the central bank, the banking sector will experience a need for liquidity in the current year, and long-term funding needs to be resumed in the near future.

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And yet, despite such transparent hints from ECB members, the market doubted that the regulator would be so decisive about this issue. According to the general expectation of traders, at the March meeting, the central bank was supposed to discuss this scenario and prepare the ground for its implementation. Instead, the regulator announced TLTRO-3, which will be launched in September.

Also, the European Central Bank has put an end to the reasoning about a possible rate hike in the current year. According to the updated text of the accompanying statement, key interest rates will remain at current levels at least until the end of 2019 - "and in any case, as long as it is necessary to ensure further steady inflation approach to a level slightly lower, but close to two percent" . At the end of previous meetings, the phrase sounded different: the central bank planned to keep rates at the same levels "at least until the end of the summer of 2019".

This suggests that the regulator does not expect an inflationary breakthrough in the coming months: let me remind you that core inflation in the eurozone, contrary to growth forecasts of 1.1%, had again dropped to one percent. Therefore, now it is absolutely impractical to make any forecasts as to whether the ECB will raise the rate in the first half of next year or not: if the core inflation index continues to slump in the area of one percent, the regulator will continue to postpone the approximate date of this decision.

Here it is worth noting that at the March meeting, the ECB had once again reduced its forecasts for GDP growth and inflation – the second time in the last three months. Thus, according to the regulator, the eurozone economy will grow by only 1.1% this year, while the previous forecast assumed growth to 1.7%. As Draghi mentioned, there are several factors contributing to the slowdown of the EU economy, but the main ones are China and Italy. Long-term forecasts show a smooth recovery of Eurozone GDP – in 2020 to 1.6% (previous forecast – 1.7%), and in 2021 - to 1.5% (unchanged). As for inflation, the regulator has also significantly reduced its expectations: this year it is projected to grow to 1.2% (against the early forecast of 1.6%), and next year – to 1.5% (against 1.7%).

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Thus, the European Central Bank identified new landmarks and new horizons, completely redrawing the fundamental picture of the EUR/USD pair. In the long run, such a decision will certainly benefit the European economy - at least due to the euro's devaluation. But short-term forecasts do not leave hopes for the pair's bulls: in the near future, buyers will fight for the 12th figure, while the previous heights will remain inaccessible for now.

From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD price is under pressure due to trend indicators, and on all the "lower" time frames. On H4, D1, W1 and MN, the pair is on the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator, which also indicates the priority of a downward movement. The closest, strongest support level is located at around 1,1005 - at this price point, the bottom line of the Bollinger Bands coincides with the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud on the monthly chart. Strong arguments are necessary in order for bears of the pair to go below the 10th figure- not only at the expense of a weak euro, but also at the expense of a strong dollar. In this context, Friday's Nonfarm data can play a significant role.

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for March 8. European Central Bank disappointed the market.

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Wave counting analysis:

On Thursday, March 7, trading ended for EUR / USD with a decline of 115 bp. Such was the market reaction to the "pigeon" rhetoric of Mario Draghi and the company. The results of the ECB meeting were disappointing. Forecasts for GDP and inflation have been lowered. The launch of the LTRO program, which means new lending to commercial banks, has been announced. Moreover, eurocurrency options simply did not exist and wave counting is now convincing. All 5 waves of the downward trend section are built, and an unsuccessful attempt to break through the level of 127.2%, suggests at least a reversal, as a maximum of the end of the trend segment, which has become a triangle.

Sales targets:

1.1184 - 127.2% Fibonacci

1.1119 - 161.8% Fibonacci

Shopping goals:

1.1419 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair remains within the limits of the expected wave 5. But there is also an option in which the construction of this wave is completed. Thus, I recommend waiting for the breakout level of 127.2% for Fibonacci and only after that, sell the pair with targets located near the estimated mark of 1.1119, which corresponds to 161.8% for Fibonacci.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/AUD for March 8, 2019

AUD has been weighed down in light of disappointing economic reports. AUD managed to gain certain momentum over EUR recently which indicates severe EUR weakness.

EUR is facing an economic slowdown ahead of BREXIT. Besides, the ECB is currently looking forward to getting over this issue as soon as possible. The ECB is currently thinking of a rate hike by 2020 after the crisis it is facing now. The regulator offers banks a new round of cheap loans to revive the eurozone's economy. EUR is keeping the main refinancing rate unchanged as expected at 0.00%. This averted the market sentiment away from EUR, curbing recent gains. Additionally, the European Union wants to avoid a trade war with the United States as it can hurt the economy more.

Today Germany's Factory Orders report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 0.5% from the previous value of -1.6%, French Industrial Production is expected to decrease to 0.1% from the previous value of 0.8%, French Trade Balance is expected to decrease to -4.9B from the previous figure of -4.7B, and Italian Industrial Production is expected to increase to 0.2% from the previous negative value of -0.8%.

On the other hand, the Australian economy has been facing headwinds. Dismal economic performance has been proved by downbeat data. The Australian Housing market took a downturn which was unlikely to fall after 27 years of recession-free expansion. According to RBA Governor Lowe, the labor market has become the most important factor for RBA's monetary policy assessment. Further tightening of the labor market will contribute to gradual improvement in the wages and income. Recently Australian Retail Sales report was published with a certain increase to 0.1% from the previous negative value of -0.4% but failed to meet the forecast for an increase to 0.3%. However, Trade Balance showed an increase to 4.55B from the previous figure of 3.77B which was expected to decrease to 2.85B.

Meanwhile, both the eurozone and Australia have been facing a slowdown which have been proved by mixed economic reports. Notably, Australia is in a better shape with the Trade Balance. This managed to attract market sentiment in favor of AUD. EUR is still struggling to maintain momentum. The ECB is trying to revive the economy. AUD gained certain momentum. So, AUD is expected to set the tone in the pair.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently trading below 1.60 price area with a strong bearish impulsive daily close which is also being held as support by the dynamic levels like 20 EMA, Tenkan and Kijun line. As the price breaks below the dynamic level with an intraday close or below 1.5950 area, further bearish momentum is expected with a target towards 1.5850, 1.5500 and later towards 1.5300.

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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on March 8. The ECB will not increase rates this year

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

The ECB's revision regarding the timing of raising interest rates pulled down the euro. Now buyers are required to confirm divergence in the support area of 1.1170, and otherwise, it is best to rely on long positions from the lows of 1.1149 and 1.1122. The main task of the bulls will be to return and consolidate above the resistance of 1.1218, which will be extremely difficult to do. In this scenario, we can expect an upward correction in the area of resistance 1.1259 and 1.1286, where I recommend taking profits.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

It is best to open short positions after updating the resistance of 1.1218 or to rebound from a larger level 1.1259. The main task of the bears will be a breakthrough and consolidation in the first half of the day below the level of 1.1186, which will lead to a new wave of selling the euro in the area of a low of 1.1149 and 1.1122, where I recommend taking profits. The release of a report on the unemployment rate in the United States can confuse "all the cards," since the data is expected to turn out worse than the January ones, so I don't recommend that you rush to sell for a breakdown of support 1.1186.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted below the 30-day and 50-day moving average, which indicates the bearish nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

In case the EUR/USD further declines, support will be provided by the lower limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the region of 1.1149. The upward trend will be limited to the middle of the channel in the region of 1.1218, otherwise, it can be immediately sold to rebound from the upper boundary of the indicator in the area of 1.1286.

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Indicator description

  • Moving Average (average sliding) 50 days - yellow
  • Moving Average (average sliding) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD for March 8, 2019

In yesterday's review, we suggested the following investment idea - the recipients of TLTRO loans, which are credit institutions, can play an old game in new conditions. The European Central Bank has almost directly declared that it itself is not at all up to the game - the economy is falling and it must be saved. The fact that the new TLTRO period was announced (since September), a promise was made not to increase the rate guaranteed in the current year, with economic forecasts revised lower, it can speak not so much about the alleged demand for liquidity, but rather about problems in the banking sector. This situation is very beneficial to the US, what they do more closely after the conclusion of a trade agreement with China. Europe remains alone in the trade war with the United States, now it is clearly losing and losing in this war. This reveals a long-term prospect of the dollar's strengthening.

The ECB's economic forecast for the current year has been lowered from 1.7% to 1.1%, the inflation forecast has been lowered from 1.6% to 1.2%. The eurozone, after an incredible policy of mitigation, approaches the state from which it began - to the economic indicators of the end of 2013, including the trade balance. If the global economic crisis does happen in the foreseeable future, then Europe will be completely unprepared for it, without a safety cushion, not to mention the problems of the South.

In the evening, published data on employment in the United States. The forecast for newly created places in the non-agricultural sector is 181 thousand, the unemployment rate is projected to decrease from 4.0% to 3.9%. Taking into account the proximity of the price to the strong support of the price channel line, from which significant reversals took place since December of the last year (this struggle is clearly visible on the daily chart), we, counting on the price going under this line in the coming days, are waiting for the current situation to consolidate into the range of 1.1160-1.1215 - even in good employment data there is always a reason for discontent.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on March 8, 2019

On Thursday, the British pound lost 87 points, following the euro's decline after the ECB's pessimistic meeting. The decline was stopped by the daily timeframe balance line, but the price still overcame the signal level 1.3108. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator on the daily has moved to the zone of decline, now we can wait for the price in the region of the coincidence of the MACD line and the price channel line at 1.2930.

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On a smaller scale, H4, price convergence with the Marlin oscillator is being formed, which can be realized in a correction from the pound's fall from February 28, visually from the balance line to the daily.

We do not expect a high correction, since the signal level of 1.3108 can assume the role of a split, that is, the level at which the price will be wound in a consolidation process.

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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs for March 8

Dear colleagues.

For the currency pair Euro / Dollar, the subsequent targets for the downward movement were considered from the larger structure of the initial conditions on February 28 (see the image). For the currency pair Pound / Dollar, we expect the continuation of the movement to the bottom after the breakdown of 1.3068 and the level of 1.3136 is the key support. For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, the potential for the rising structure of February 28 is at the level of 1.0180. For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, the price entered a steady state and the continuation of the upward movement is possible after a breakdown of 111.87. For the currency pair Euro / Yen, the subsequent development of the downward cycle of March 1 and we expect after the breakdown of 124.70. For the currency pair Pound / Yen, we expect a pronounced movement to the bottom after the breakdown of 145.55.

Forecast for March 8:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the currency pair Euro / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.1270, 1.1227, 1.1203, 1.1159, 1.1136 and 1.1088. We continue to monitor the downward structure of February 28. We expect the short-term downward movement in the area of 1.1159 - 1.1136. The breakdown of the last value will allow to expect a movement towards a potential target of 1.1088, upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 1.1203 - 1.1227 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. The goal is 1.1270 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of February 28.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1203 Take profit: 1.1225

Buy 1.1227 Take profit: 1.1262

Sell: 1.1159 Take profit: 1.1137

Sell: 1.1134 Take profit: 1.1090

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For the currency pair Pound / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3202, 1.3136, 1.3103, 1.3068, 1.3029, 1.2967 and 1.2935. We continue to monitor the downward structure of February 27. We expect the short-term downward movement in the range of 1.3068 - 1.3029 and the breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. The goal is 1.1267. We consider the level of 1.2935 as the potential value for the bottom, after reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as rollback to the top.

We expect the short-term upward movement in the area of 1.3103 - 1.3136 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. The goal is 1.3202 and this level is the key support for the downward structure of February 27.

The main trend is the downward structure of February 27.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3103 Take profit: 1.3134

Buy: 1.3138 Take profit: 1.3200

Sell: 1.3066 Take profit: 1.3034

Sell: 1.3026 Take profit: 1.2970

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For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.0180, 1.0141, 1.0124, 1.0101, 1.0084, 1.0058 and 1.0027. We continue to monitor the ascending cycle of February 28. We expect the short-term upward movement in the area of 1.0124 - 1.0141. The breakdown of the last value will allow to expect a movement towards a potential target of 1.0180, upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the bottom.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 1.0101 - 1.0084 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. The goal is 1.0058 and this level is the key support for the upward structure. Its price will have potential for the downward cycle. In this case, the goal is 1.0027.

The main trend is the upward cycle of February 28.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.0124 Take profit: 1.0140

Buy: 1.0145 Take profit: 1.0180

Sell: 1.0101 Take profit: 1.0085

Sell: 1.0082 Take profit: 1.0060

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For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, the key levels on the scale of H1 are 112.81, 112.56, 112.44, 112.23, 112.07, 111.87, 111.53 and 111.33. The price has entered an equilibrium state. The continuation of the upward movement is possible after the breakdown of 111.87. In this case, the goal is 112.07. We expect the short-term upward movement in the range of 112.07 - 112.23 and the breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. The goal is 112.44 and in the area of 112.44 - 112.56 is the consolidation of the price. We consider the level of 112.81 as a potential value for the top, after reaching which, we expect to go into a correction.

We expect a short-term downward movement in the range of 111.53 - 111.33, as well as consolidation. The breakdown of the level of 111.33 will allow us to count on the formation of pronounced initial conditions for the downward cycle.

The main trend is the equilibrium situation.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 111.88 Take profit: 112.05

Buy: 112.07 Take profit: 112.21

Sell: 111.50 Take profit: 111.36

Sell: Take profit:

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For the currency pair Canadian Dollar / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3595, 1.3555, 1.3485, 1.3458, 1.3414, 1.3386 and 1.3347. We continue to monitor the ascending structure of March 1. We expect the continuation of the movement to the top after the price passes the range of 1.3458 - 1.3485. In this case, the target is 1.3555. We consider the level of 1.3595 as a potential value for the top, after reaching which, we expect to go into a correction.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 1.3414 - 1.3386 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. The target is 1.3347.

The main trend is the ascending cycle of March 1.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3485 Take profit: 1.3555

Buy: 1.3557 Take profit: 1.3595

Sell: 1.3414 Take profit: 1.3386

Sell: 1.3384 Take profit: 1.3347

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For the currency pair Australian Dollar / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 0.7088, 0.7072, 0.7051, 0.7026, 0.7010, 0.6978 and 0.6951. We continue to follow the development of the downward cycle of February 27. We expect the short-term downward movement in the area of 0.7026 - 0.7010. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the movement to the level of 0.6978, near which, we expect consolidation. We consider the level of 0.6951 as a potential value for the downward structure, upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the top.

We expect the short-term downward movement after the breakdown of 0.7051. The goal is 0.7072 and the range of 0.7072 - 0.7088. We expect the initial conditions for the ascending cycle.

The main trend is the downward cycle of February 27.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7051 Take profit: 0.7070

Buy: 0.7072 Take profit: 0.7084

Sell: 0.7010 Take profit: 0.7980

Sell: 0.6976 Take profit: 0.6953

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For the currency pair Euro / Yen, the key levels on the H1 scale are 126.03, 125.63, 125.35, 125.11, 124.70, 124.44, 124.25 and 123.87. We are following the downward structure of March 1. We expect the continuation of the movement to the bottom after the breakdown of the level of 124.70. In this case, the target is 124.44 and in the area of 124.44 - 124.25 is the consolidation of the price. We consider the level of 123.87 as a potential value for the bottom, after reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 125.11 - 125.35 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. The goal is 125.63 and this level is the key support for the downward structure from March 1. Its breakdown will have to form the initial conditions for the ascending cycle. In this case, target is 126.03.

The main trend is the downward structure of March 1.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 125.11 Take profit: 125.35

Buy: 125.37 Take profit: 125.60

Sell: 124.70 Take profit: 124.45

Sell: 124.25 Take profit: 123.90

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For the currency pair Pound / Yen, the key levels on the H1 scale are 147.22, 146.70, 146.31, 145.57, 144.71 and 144.00. We are following the development of the downward cycle of March 1. We expect the continuation of the movement to the bottom after the breakdown of 145.57. In this case, the goal is 144.71, and consolidation is near this level. We consider the level of 144.00 as a potential value for the bottom, after reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 146.31 - 146.70 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. The target is 147.22 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of March 1.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 146.31 Take profit: 146.70

Buy: 146.74 Take profit: 147.20

Sell: 145.55 Take profit: 144.8

Sell: 144.65 Take profit: 144.00

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Forecast for AUD/USD on March 8, 2019

The Australian dollar did not respond much to the European currencies' decline from the previous day, falling by only 15 points. Perhaps, the situation is in the formed extended double convergence with the Marlin oscillator, observed on the four-hour chart. Thus, the market has left itself a technical opportunity to correct upwards after working on the price channel line at a price of 0.6980, to which the price can reach following the release of American labor data. The forecast is optimistic: the newly created places in the non-agricultural sector are expected to be 181 thousand, the unemployment rate may drop from 4.0% to 3.9%. The correction may be to the lower boundary of consolidation on March 4-6, which is marked on the four-hour chart. Convergence thus becomes triple.

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Technical analysis for EUR/USD for March 8, 2019

EUR/USD has broken support and reached our 1.12 target as expected. In our previous posts we noted that we remain bearish as the most probable scenario would be the move towards 1.12 once 1.13 failed to hold.

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Red line - resistance

Green line - support

EUR/USD has broken through 1.1280 support yesterday and has reached our short-term target at the green trend line support at 1.12. We could see some profit taking from bears today and a bounce towards 1.1230-1.1250 could be seen. Trend remains bearish and EUR/USD is vulnerable to a move towards 1.11. In shorter time frames, the RSI is oversold but has not shown any divergence sign. The medium-term bearish trend remains valid as long as we trade below the red trend line resistance.

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Technical analysis for Gold for March 8, 2019

Gold price made a slight new lower low yesterday and bounced $10. Gold price as said in previous posts is about to end the bearish move from $1,346 and make a bounce as a back test towards $1,300.

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Red lines - bullish divergence

Gold price showed some bullish divergence signs yesterday as the RSI was not making new lows when price was. Gold price is expected to move at least towards $1,300 for a corrective bounce relative to the decline that started at $1,333. Gold is showing short-term reversal signs to the upside targeting $1,300-$1,305 area. Support is at $1,280 and as long as we hold this level we expect a strong bounce towards $1,300. Breaking below support would open the way for a move towards $1,270-60. Resistance is also found at $1,313 and next at $1,330-33.

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Ethereum Elliott Wave analysis for 08/03/2019

Technical market overview:

Not much changed at the ETH/USD market as the pair has been trading inside of the consolidation zone located between the levels of 135.00 - 140.00 and it does not look like the bulls are strong enough to move any higher than this. Moreover, from the Elliott Wave Principle point of view, the market can still develop another leg down as there is a scenario in which there is unfinished wave C of the wave X to the downside. In that case, the overall pattern for wave C would be a massive Ending Diagonal pattern with a low below the level of 122.22. Another bearish clue is the lack of any movement above the red technical resistance zone. Patience is required, as often during the correction on the market.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 152.52

WR2 - 146.84

WR1 - 137.53

Weekly Pivot - 130.71

WS1 - 121.63

WS2 - 115.38

WS3 - 106.41

Trading Recommendations:

All sell orders from the last week should be still kept open with a target set at the level of 116.15. The protective stop loss orders should be moved to the level of 136.63. Any violation of this level will invalidate the downward cycle scenario.

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Bitcoin Elliott Wave analysis for 08/03/2019

Technical market overview:

The BTC/USD pair has been trading quietly inside of the horizontal consolidation between the levels of $3,812 - $3,894 for some time, but now is breaking out of this area towards the 50% Fibonacci retracement at the level of $3,986. If the level of 50% Fibo is violated, then the next one at 61% is seen at the level of $4,047. All of the moves up are in line with the bullish Elliott wave scenario, in which the market should be developing wave 3 of the lesser degree to the upside.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $4,187

WR2 - $4.058

WR1 - $3,959

Weekly Pivot - $3,833

WS1 - $3,732

WS2 - $3,608

WS3 - $3,503

Trading Recommendations:

The overall trend remains bearish and there is a possible wave C waiting to unfold to the downside, so only the sell orders should be placed in this market. The next good level to open the sell order is $3,986 with a target at the level of $3,784. Any violation of the level of $4,047 will invalidate this trading setup.

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EUR/USD technical analysis for 08/03/2019

Technical market overview:

The EUR/USD pair has broken through all of the technical support at the levels of 1.1275, 1.1258, 1.1248, 1.1234, and 1.1214 (all of them will now be considered as technical resistances) and made a new low at the level of 1.1176. The main formation driving the move down was Three Soldiers. Currently, the market conditions are oversold and despite the negative and very weak momentum, there might be some pullback towards the level of 1.1214 and 1.1234.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1499

WR2 - 1.1457

WR1 - 1.1406

Weekly Pivot - 1.1363

WS1 - 1.1314

WS2 - 1.1271

WS3 - 1.1224

Trading Recommendations:

All targets for sell orders have been hit, so no sell orders should be left open for now. The next good level to open the sell orders is seen at 1.1234, which will act as a technical resistance for the price. Please keep your protective stop-loss orders tight.

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GBP/USD technical analysis for 08/03/2019

Technical market overview:

After the bounce from the technical support at the level of 1.3100, the GBP/USD pair rallied up towards the trend line (marked in orange) and slightly broke it establishing the local high at the level of 1.3184. Nevertheless, the price quickly reversed due to the Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern and went down towards the level of 1.3100 and broke through it. The new local low after the false breakout was made at the level of 1.3066 and the next low is seen at the level of 1.3012.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3631

WR2 - 1.3485

WR1 - 1.3333

Weekly Pivot - 1.3193

WS1 - 1.3047

WS2 - 1.2894

WS3 - 1.2742

Trading Recommendations:

All the sell orders opened during the pullback should be still in play with the target at the level of 1.3012. Please use a tight protective stop-loss and trial the order if needed as well.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for March 8, 2019

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The failure to break back above minor resistance at 147.77 was disappointing for our bullish outlook. This does not mean, that our bullish view has been invalidated, but a less bullish alternate count, seems to be in the works.

Under this count, GBP/JPY will need to stay above support at 144.84 for a break above minor resistance at 146.18 to confirm the next impulsive rally higher to 148.57 and above.

A failure to stay above 144.84 will shift our count to a bearish outlook and call for more downside pressure towards 144.18 and maybe even closer to 141.41 - not our preferred outlook.

R3: 146.32

R2: 146.18

R1: 145.85

Pivot: 145.36

S1: 144.84

S2: 144.40

S3: 144.18

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 146 was hit for a 285 pips profit. We will re-buy GBP upon a break above 145.85 and place our stop at 144.75.

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