BITCOIN Analysis for February 14, 2019

Bitcoin's corrective low volume price action is still being squeezed at the edge of $3,600 from where a strong break above is expected. The price has formed Bullish Pennant in the process which if broken above the resistance trend line will push the price higher towards $4,000 area in the coming days. In MACD there is not much to be observed with a low volume in the Histogram. The overall Cryptocurrency market saw strong bearish pressure as JP Morgan launched their own digital coin to help the bank settle payments between clients. The news affected the Bitcoin growth, whereas the bullish pressure are not seen yen on the back of a low trading volume on Bitcoin recently. As the price remains above or contained in $3,500-600 area, the impulsive bullish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 3,000, 3,500, 3,600

RESISTANCE: 3,750, 4,000, 4,250

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

February 14, 2019: The EUR/USD pair cannot hold within its daily movement channel.

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Since June 2018, the EUR/USD pair has been moving sideways with slight bearish tendency within the depicted bearish Channel (In RED).

On November 13, the EUR/USD pair demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the current bullish movement above the depicted short-term bullish channel (In BLUE) was initiated.

Bullish fixation above 1.1430 was needed to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1520. However, the market has been demonstrating obvious bearish rejection around 1.1430 few times so far.

The EUR/USD pair has lost its bullish momentum since January 31 when a bearish engulfing candlestick was demonstrated around 1.1514 where another descending high was established then.

On February 5, a bearish daily candlestick closure below 1.1420 terminated the recent bullish recovery scenario.

This allowed the current bearish movement to occur towards 1.1300-1.1270 where the lower limit of the depicted DAILY channel comes to meet the pair.

On the other hand, a bearish flag pattern may be confirmed if bearish persistence below 1.1250 is achieved on the daily-chart basis. Pattern target is projected towards 1.1000.

Trade Recommendations:

Intraday traders can look for a counter-trend BUY entry around the current price levels (1.1285) (lower limit of the depicted movement channel).

S/L to be located below 1.1240 while T/P level to be located around 1.1350 and 1.1420.

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Palladium leads in the precious metals market

Economists estimate that the value of palladium showed the longest growth in history and peaked. Meanwhile, experts are trying to understand the causes of this phenomenon.

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Analysts recorded an unprecedented rise in the price of precious metals over the past two years. This turned out to be useful for producers of palladium and delighted investors who have long positions in contracts for precious metals. At the beginning of 2017, the palladium spot price was about $700 per 1 ounce but in January 2019, the quotes reached an impressive $1,440 per 1 ounce, which means the price doubled. A slight correction followed later and now, for 1 ounce equates to $1380.

According to experts, one of the main reasons for the increase in the cost of precious metals is a reduction in production. Norilsk Nickel is considered to be the largest metal producer in the world. In the fourth quarter of 2018, the company reduced its production by 10% to 632 thousand ounces and for the whole year of 2018, the figure decreased by 2% to 2.729 million ounces. The head of sales at Norilsk Nickel, Marcus Moreira, said that the company would like to systematically develop palladium production rather than adapt to drastic price changes. He noted that the impressive price fluctuations cause serious concerns of the leadership.

In analyzing situations from the past that could lead to high demand for palladium, experts draw attention to dieselgate in which Volkswagen was involved in a scandal with harmful emissions that unfolded in 2015. It served as a driver for the growth in demand for precious metals, where 85% is provided by automotive engine manufacturers and currently, palladium is actively used in the production of catalysts for gasoline engines.

The situation with palladium is alarming for a number of experts. According to John Butler, an analyst at the Mitsubishi concern, "overheating" of the market for this precious metal is possible in the near future. He believes that the rise in the price of palladium will not last long. The expert notes that the investment demand in the over-the-counter market for the precious metal is very high, while the industrial demand for it is steadily declining. According to the Mitsubishi forecast, the average cost of palladium will remain at $ 1201 per 1 ounce in 2019.

Strategists of the London Association of Precious Metals Markets presented their forecast for the current year on palladium, which looks extremely negative. Analysts of large banks and brokerage companies expect a significant drop in precious metal prices. Many of them predicted a decrease in the cost of palladium in 2018 but their calculations were erroneous. Recall that at the end of last year, prices for precious metals continued to rise, which was the longest in history. Nonetheless, pessimism is characteristic of many market participants, who believe that palladium quotes will never return to the level of $1,440 for 1 ounce.

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GBP / USD plan for the American session on February 14. The pound remains under pressure even against the background of Brexit

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

Buyers did not cope with the task for the first half of the day and failed to maintain the support level of 1.2837, which I paid attention and now plays the role of resistance. Confidence in the strength of the British pound among speculative players will only be possible if the confidence in the strength of the British pound among speculative players is regained, which will lead to growth in the area of resistance 1.2885 and possibly to update of the maximum of 1.2944, where I recommend taking profits. In case of further GBP/USD decline, new long positions can be considered to rebound from a minimum of 1.2782 and 1.2723.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

As long as trade is conducted below the resistance of 1.2837 and pressure on the pound will continue. Good data on the American economy will lead to more powerful GBP/USD movement down to the lows of 1.2782 and 1.2723, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of an upward correction in the second half of the day, short positions can be considered for a rebound from the resistance level of 1.2885 or sell from a larger maximum in the area of 1.2944.

More in the video forecast for February 14

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted below the 30- and 50-day moving, which indicates the further formation of a bear market.

Bollinger bands

In the case of pound growth, the movement will be limited to the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the area of 1.2885.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD plan for the US session on February 14. The GDP data preserves the faith of buyers in euros

To open long positions on EUR/USD pair, you need:

The GDP data from eurozone coincided with forecasts of economists, which allowed buyers to keep the European currency at the support level of 1.1251, where I recommended buying in my morning forecast. At the moment, the main task of the bulls will be a breakthrough and consolidation above the resistance of 1.1292, which will lead to a larger upward correction in the area of maximum 1.1329, where I recommend fixing profits. In the case of a downward movement, it is best to consider new purchases to rebound from the next weekly minimum of 1.1215.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

The bears showed themselves in the morning, forming a false breakdown in the area of resistance 1.1292, which I paid attention in my morning review. At the moment, sellers can again declare themselves at the test level of 1.1292, however, it is best to expect a rebound from the resistance of 1.1329 for more serious short positions in the euro. The main task of the bears is to return in the afternoon to the support of 1.1251, which will lead to a larger sale of the euro to the area of 1.1215 minimum, where I recommend taking profits. However, a more powerful downward movement will depend on important news on the American economy, which are expected today.

More in the video forecast for February 14

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30- and 50-medium moving, which indicates the possible formation of the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

The volatility of the Bollinger Bands indicator falls, which does not give signals to enter the market. However, a breakthrough of the upper border in the region of 1.1292 may lead to a larger growth of the European currency.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD: US Inflation and Political Crisis in Spain

Today's release of data on the growth of US inflation has once again demonstrated the current attitude of the market to the US dollar. Despite the fact that the published figures are extremely controversial, the majority of traders decided that "the glass is half full than the other way round", while increasing the demand for greenback. This suggests that even weak US macroeconomic reports are not able to reverse the southern trend of the EUR/USD pair. The attempt for corrective growth yesterday was not crowned with success, which confirms the attractiveness of short positions in the pair. Such a situation is due to several reasons.

The market focused on the strengths of today's release. Firstly, the core inflation without accounting for food and energy prices, has remained at 2.2% in annual terms compared to the negative forecasts of a decline to 2.1%. At this level, the base CPI released from November last year. On a monthly basis, the indicator also demonstrates stability since October 2018, which is at the level of 0.2% and today's release is no exception.

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The consumer price index, taking into account the prices of food and energy, showed mixed dynamics. In annual terms, it exceeded expectations and was at 1.6% with a forecast of 1.5%. In contrary to optimistic forecasts of growth to 0.1%, it remained at the monthly level of zero, where it is since the end of autumn of last year.

Thus, the published figures could be interpreted by the market in different ways, both in favor of the dollar and against it. As you can see, the market followed the first path. Following the general tendencies in February, the EUR/USD pair returned to the 12th figure and headed for the nearest support level of 1.1260, which is the bottom line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart.

At first glance, such a "favor" of the market to the dollar looks illogical, given the fact that the Fed has quite sharply softened its rhetoric at the end of last year. However, this fact remained in the shadow of more global processes. The latest data on China's GDP growth suggests that concerns of experts about the prospects for the world economy are fully justified. This is confirmed by the recently published forecasts of institutions including the IMF, the World Bank, the ECB, the European Commission and the relevant financial institutions of the EU countries.

Such pessimistic views suggest that EUR/USD traders should not expect a correlation of the monetary policy of the Fed and the ECB. Both regulators will not rush to increase the interest rate in the foreseeable future. At the beginning of the year, bulls of the pair maintained the hope of an increase in the ECB rate in the framework of 2018, however, recent events have reduced this probability to almost zero. Even Jens Weidmann, who for a long time maintained a "hawkish" position, actually acknowledged that the European regulator should be careful given the increased risks.

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The risks in the eurozone have really increased and not only economic ones. A new hotbed of political uncertainty broke out in Spain. The fact is that the Spanish parliament today rejected the draft budget of the country for this year, which was prepared by the Cabinet of Ministers. The consequences of this decision can be quite ambitious as the resignation of the government, followed by early parliamentary elections. Today, it became known that the Prime Minister of the country will hold a government meeting on Friday and the outcome of which can be a decisive factor in a political context.

The likelihood of new elections that may take place this spring (approximately in May) is very high, given the number of deputies (191) who voted against the proposed budget. Only 158 parliamentarians voted for the document. The budget failed due to the position of the two Catalan parties that previously supported Sanchez, but now, their views have radically diverged. Hence, the Catalans left the socialists without support while the party members of Sanchez do not have a majority in parliament. By the way, if the worst fears of experts are confirmed, it will be the third election in Spain over the past four years. Regular political battles against the background of recent events in Italy and vague prospects on Brexit will put additional pressure on the European currency.

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From a technical point of view, the trend is still downward. This is indicated by signals on all the "older" timeframes. On the daily, weekly and monthly charts, the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator shows a bearish signal of "Parade of lines" and the price itself is between the middle and lower lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator. The estimated "ceiling" of corrective growth is located in the area of 1.1390, which is the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud on the weekly chart. To break through this level of resistance will not be easy with the overall negative fundamental background for the euro. The support level is 1.1260, which is the bottom line of the Bollinger Bands indicator.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/CHF analysis for February 14, 2019

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USD/CAD has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $1.3272. Anyway, according to the H1 time – frame, I have found that price rejected from the important resistance level at 1.3265. I also found potential end of the upward correction and finished bearish flag pattern, which is a sign that buying USD/CAD at this stage looks risky. The key intraday support is set at 1.3230.

R1: 1.3290

R2: 1.3320

R3: 1.3370

Pivot: 1.3240

S1: 1.3213

S2: 1.3165

S3: 1.3135

Trading recommendation: We are bearish intraday from 1.3258 and protective stop at 1.3275. We are targeting levels at 1.3230 and 1.3200.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of Gold for February 14, 2019

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Gold finished bullish correction (regular flat) at $1.317.50 in the background and in our opinion, it should trade lower. We found hidden bearish divergence on the MACD oscillator, which is another sign of the weakness. The breakout of the key short-term support at $1.302.00 would confirm a downward movement. As long as Gold remains below the resistance at $1.318.00, the trend is bearish.

R1: $1.321.85

R2: $1.328.55

R3: $1.355.45

Pivot: $1.315.00

S1: $1.308.25

S2: $1.301.40

S3: $1.294.65

Trading recommendation: We are still bearish on Gold from $1.310.00 and we have placed our stop at $1.318.00.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Being at current levels, the euro is greatly undervalued. Growth is inevitable!

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Euro shows the character and was able to recover after the strike, which sent to the level of a three-month minimum. The single European currency rises in price against the background of excellent data on the region's trade with China and hopes for progress in trade negotiations; these factors increased investors' appetite for risky assets. The Australian dollar - one of the main barometers of demand for risk - has risen in price by more than half a percent. Even the data showing that the German economy stalled in the fourth quarter of 2018 could not pull the euro to the bottom. It seems that the fall of the euro by almost 2 percent in the first six weeks of the year was already too exaggerated. The current levels already include a lot of bad news for the euro, and even with a margin. It was expected that the expiration of the option in the amount of 1.2 billion dollars at 1.13 dollars per euro will keep the euro spot market in a narrow range.

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The Australian dollar - a very accurate indicator of risk appetite - increased by 0.6 percent, to 0.7132 dollars, and showed the best three-day series of growth this year. Bloomberg reported that President Donald Trump is considering the possibility to postpone a further 60 days to the deadline for resolving trade disputes with China, citing sources familiar with this issue. On Wednesday, Trump said the talks "are going very well." If this happens, the euro will continue to recover.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for February 14, 2019

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Bitcoin has been trading sideways at the price of $3.619. Our yesterday's analysis didn't change. We found the failed test of the resistance at $3.760, which is a sign that buyers don't have power at this stage. We also found the broken intraday support trendline at $3.640, which is a sign that sellers are in control. If BTC breaks the support at $3.592, we may see a test of $3.542. Trading recommendation: We sold intraday BTC at $3.630 with protective stop at $3.760. Targeting the level of $3.543.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified wave analysis of GBP / JPY for February 14

Large-scale graphics:

Given the combination of several factors at once:

- the formation of the structure of the wave, with the correct proportions of all its parts;

- achieving strong support;

- the presence of a reversal model;

You can state the completion of the current entire last year of the downtrend.

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Medium scale graphics:

The rising wave from January 3 has a high wave level. Given the impulsive nature of the wave, in the coming months, the whole movement will move to a larger scale.

Small-scale graphics:

The bearish wave of January 25 in the wave of the watch TF corrects the previous trend segment. The preliminary goal of the reduction has been achieved, but the structure of the movement does not demonstrate completeness. The probability of wave elongation down, beyond the nearest support, is quite high.

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Forecast and recommendations:

Considering the upcoming change in the entire short-term trend of the instrument, it is recommended to track reversal signals at the ends of all downward movements to search for entry into long positions.

Resistance zones:

- 145.50 / 146.00

Support areas:

- 141.50 / 141.00

- 137.50 / 137.00

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). The analysis uses 3 consecutive scale graph. Each of them analyzes the last, incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified wave analysis of AUD / USD for February 14

Large-scale graphics:

Throughout last year, the vector of the price movement "Aussie" was directed to the "south" of the chart. The preliminary calculated goal of the movement is not achieved.

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Medium scale graphics:

The rising wave of January 3 has a reversal potential. In the structure of a larger trend, it will become a correction.

Small-scale graphics:

The downward stretch of January 31 corrects the price increase of the last month. The wave is nearing completion.

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Forecast and recommendations:

In the coming days, the price of the pair is expected to change course. The pace of recovery can accelerate significantly with a suitable news background. It is recommended to track the instrument purchase signals.

Resistance zones:

- 0.7340 / 0.7390

Support areas:

- 0.7070 / 0.7020

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). The analysis uses 3 consecutive scale graph. Each of them analyzes the last, incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR USD: There is a chance for the euro to resume growth, but with good data on the eurozone economy

The European currency lost all its positions and fell against the US dollar on the basis of trading on Wednesday, February 13. Buyers failed to keep the pair at highs after the release of more than a weak report on industrial production in the euro area, which has seriously decreased.

A good report on inflation in the United States was able to support the dollar in the afternoon, which only increased the pressure on the pair before the meeting of US and Chinese trade representatives.

During yesterday's speech, American President Donald Trump once again repeated his words that he did not want to suspend the work of the US government, but he had not yet decided whether to sign an agreement on financing border security. The problem is that the agreement does not have a clear understanding of whether funding will be allocated for the construction of a wall on the border with Mexico or not.

Yesterday, Harker, a representative of the Fed, also made a speech, saying that he expects one increase in interest rates in 2019 and another in 2020. Thus, it is clearly seen that the inclination of the Fed and its representatives to tighten monetary policy is decreasing more and more. Harker also said that it is necessary to continue to take a wait-and-see attitude, since the investment prospects are not as positive as last year, and the uncertainty has a negative impact on the economy.

The representative of the Fed said that he expects annual GDP growth rates slightly above 2% this year, followed by a slowdown to 2% in 2020.

The report on tax revenues to the federal budget in 2018 did not have a serious impact on the markets. Given that the report was published in the year of the amended tax law, which provides for benefits, the decline in budget revenues, along with strong economic growth and low unemployment, did not cause particular concerns among economists.

According to the US Treasury, federal budget revenues decreased by 0.4% to $ 3.33 trillion, while federal spending was at $ 4.2 trillion, up 4.4% from a year earlier. As a result, the US budget deficit amounted to $ 873 billion compared to $ 680.8 billion in the same period last year.

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The main decline is due to low corporate tax and personal income tax rates. They were changed as part of the tax reform, which began in January 2018.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, euro buyers need the fastest possible return to the resistance level of 1.1290, only above which the demand for risky assets will increase, which will lead to an update of weekly highs around 1.1340. If the trade continues to be below the resistance of 1.1290, and the data for the euro area are worse than economists' forecasts, the EURUSD pair will continue to fall further, and the break of support 1.1250 will only increase pressure on it, with the main goal of updating the minimum of 1.1180.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD. February 14. The trading system. "Regression Channels". The European Commission assumes that Brexit will be rescheduled

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - up

The junior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -72.8037

The currency pair GBP / USD on Thursday, February 14, also resumed the downward movement, having previously worked out the moving average within the framework of the correction. A good report on inflation in the United States had a beneficial effect on the US dollar and paired with sterling. At the same time, only negative data from all calibers continue to come from the UK, ranging from information about the desire of a company to leave the UK or move its production capacity abroad, ending with new disappointing information about Brexit. A representative of the European Commission, Schinas, said yesterday that there is a possibility of postponing the UK's exit date from the EU. However, for this, London must submit a request, and EU leaders must unanimously approve it. However, so far no requests have been received from the EU. It seems that the option of postponing the date for Brexit is quite comfortable with the EU, which in this way can show harshness in negotiations regarding the conditions of a "divorce" at a long time and at the same time give food and time for reflection to British parliamentarians. From a technical point of view, the last bars are colored blue, so the downward movement is important.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.2817

S2 - 1.2756

S3 - 1.2695

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.2878

R2 - 1.2939

R3 - 1.3000

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD completed a correction near the MA. Thus, short positions with targets of 1.2817 and 1.2756 are again relevant. A signal to a new round of correction will be the turn of the Heikin Ashi indicator upward.

It is recommended to open longs no earlier than traders overcome moving with the first target of 1.3000. From a fundamental point of view, this option is now unlikely, since there is still no positive news from the UK.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CAD for February 14, 2019

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Overview: The USD/CAD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.3228. Today, the first support level is currently seen at 1.3228, the price is moving in a bullish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set above the strong support at the level of 1.3228, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This support has been rejected three times confirming the veracity of an uptrend. According to the previous events, we expect the USD/CAD pair to trade between 1.3228 and 1.3328. So, the support stands at 1.3228, while daily resistance is found at 1.3328. Therefore, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.3228. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the spot of 1.3228 with the first target at the level of 1.3328; and continue towards 1.3295. However, if the USD/CAD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.3328 today, the market will decline further to 1.3228 or 1.3200.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. February 14. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Hope for euro - on weak retail sales in the US

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - up.

The junior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -86.2407

After the publication of an absolutely disastrous indicator of industrial production in the eurozone and quite good for inflation in the United States, the Euro currency again rushed down. Yesterday's day for the EUR / USD pair ended with a strong fall and updating of the previous minimum. However, despite the fact that, from the technical side, the downward movement may well continue, we believe that before a confident breakthrough of the area of 1.1270–1.1290, the pair may at any time begin an upward movement to 1.1500. At the moment, the chances of overcoming this zone are 50/50. We believe that traders will make another attempt to start moving up and overcome the moving, if it ends unsuccessfully, the Euro currency may fall down. On Thursday, February 14, in the eurozone, the publication of the preliminary value of GDP for the fourth quarter is scheduled. Projections indicate a value of 1.2% y / y. In the States today, there will be reports on retail sales for December. If the nature of this news is the same as yesterday, then it will be difficult for the euro to avoid a negative fate. From a technical point of view, Heikin Ashi indicator may turn up in the near future, which will be a signal for a new round of upward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1230

S2 - 1.1169

S3 - 1.1108

Nearest resistance levels:

R1-1.1292

R2 - 1.1353

R3 - 1.1414

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair resumed its downward movement, but perhaps not for long. Heikin Ashi's color indicator 1-2 bars in purple color will serve as a new signal to reduce the short positions opened earlier with the target of 1.1230.

Buy positions are recommended to be considered not earlier if the bulls overcome the moving average line with the first target of 1.1414. Today's reports in the EU and the US can influence the technical picture of the tool.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations

The senior linear regression channel is blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for 02/14/2019

None of the predictions came true yesterday, as the actual data came out completely different from what was expected, and market participants had to revise their investment plans right on the knee. Thus, inflation in the UK decreased, not to 1.9%, but to 1.8%. In the previous month, it was 2.1%. Thus, it became clear to all that in the near future, the Bank of England would begin preparing the public to lower the refinancing rate, as Mark Carney had previously warned. After all, the condition for easing monetary policy is precisely the deterioration of the macroeconomic situation, and the slowdown in inflation only complemented the stronger decline in the economic growth of the United Kingdom. Then, data on industrial production in Europe came out, and for a second, they could even please investors, as the depth of the decline in the previous month was revised from -3.3% to -3.0%. So last month the picture was not as scary as expected. However, new data killed all hope, as the recession has intensified and now the European industry is showing a "growth" of -4.2%. Thus, the reality turned out to be even worse than expected, although they did not expect the best results. Inflation in the United States fell from 1.9% to 1.6%. They were waiting for it to drop to 1.5%. Given that inflation data is extremely important, they were prepared for it in advance, that is, investors long before the data were published, the dollar cost was impacted by a stronger slowdown in price growth. The actual data turned out to be better than predicted, which means there is a reason for optimism.

Today in Europe, there is only the second estimate of GDP growth for the fourth quarter of last year, which should confirm the slowdown in economic growth from 1.6% to 1.2%. Given that the slowdown in economic growth is already taken into account by the market after the first assessment, there will be no such effect. The American statistics, most likely, will again delay the long-awaited correction. On the one hand, the growth rate of producer prices should slow down from 2.5% to 2.1%, which indicates the potential for further reduction of inflation. However, yesterday's inflation data suggests that the slowdown in producer price growth will not be as strong as expected. But what is more important is the growth rate of retail sales, which can accelerate from 4.2% to 4.5%, and this will make everyone forget about the slowdown in inflation. Also, the total number of applications for benefits should be reduced by 5 thousand. Of course, the number of repeated applications may increase by 4 thousand, but the number of primary ones is likely to decrease by 9 thousand.

The Euro / Dollar currency pair has once again returned to the limits of the range level of 1.1270 / 1.1300, where it slowed down and formed a pullback. It is likely to assume that a temporary fluctuation within the limits of the level will remain in the form of a brief stagnation. In the case of price fixing lower than 1.1250, we can go further down to the mark of 1.1200.

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The currency pair Pound / Dollar again rolled back to the local imaginary February 12 (1.2830), where it felt a foothold. Probably suggest a temporary fluctuation in the range of 1.2830 / 1.2880, expressed in stagnation.

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GBP / USD: plan for the European session on February 14. The pound remains under pressure on weak inflation data and uncertainties

To open long positions on GBP / USD, you need:

Buyers yesterday managed to keep the pound in the support area of 1.2837, which holds hope for a larger upward correction. To do this, today in the first half of the day, a breakthrough and consolidation above the resistance of 1.2885 is required, which will strengthen the demand for GBP / USD and lead to an update of the maximum of the week around 1.2944, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the event of a breakout and decline below 1.2837, it is best to look at long positions at a rebound of a minimum of 1.2782 and 1.2728.

To open short positions on GBP / USD, you need:

Forming a false breakdown in the resistance area of 1.2885 will be the first signal to open short positions in the pound in order to repeat the test and breakdown of the week minimum of 1.2837, below which the bears will return to the market, which will lead to an update of the area of 1.2782 and 1.2728, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of good news from Theresa May and Brexit, the demand for a pound may return. In this scenario, you can sell on a rebound from a maximum of 1.2944.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30-day and 50-day moving, which indicates the lateral nature of the market with a slight advantage of sellers.

Bollinger bands

In the case of an upward correction, the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.2921 will limit the upward potential. It is best to return to long positions after the test of the lower limit in the area of 1.2815.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Analysis of the divergence of EUR / USD for February 14. Bullish divergence tries to help the Eurocurrency

4h

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The currency pair EUR / USD on the 4-hour chart performed the second fall to the level of 1.1269, but the resulting bullish divergence at the MACD indicator allowed the reversal in favor of the European currency and to start the growth process in the direction of the correctional level of 23.6% - 1.1358. Passing the pair on February 14, the bullish divergence low will work in favor of the US currency and resuming the fall in the direction of the correction level of 0.0% - 1.1219.

The Fibo grid was built on extremums from September 24, 2018, and November 12, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the correction level of 127.2% - 1.1285 and immediately returned to it. Thus, we are waiting for either a new rebound from this Fibo level or closing under it. In the first case, a new turn is possible in favor of the euro currency and some growth in the direction of the Fibo level of 100.0% - 1.1553. In the second, the continuation of the fall in the direction of the correctional level of 161.8% - 1.0941. There are no maturing divergences in both plots.

The Fib grid is built on extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the EUR / USD pair can be carried out now with the goal of 1.1358, as the pair completed the closing above the level of 1.1269 (with the formation of bullish divergence), and the Stop Loss order below this level.

Sales of the EUR / USD pair can be carried out with a target of 1.1219, if the pair closes under a bullish divergence low, and a Stop Loss order above the level of 1.1269.

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Analysis of the divergence of GBP / USD for February 14. Full readiness for the new fall of the pound

4h

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The GBP / USD pair on the 4-hour chart almost reached the correction level of 61.8% - 1.2969, but reversed in favor of the American currency and closed below the Fibo level of 50.0% - 1.2869. Thus, on February 14, the fall in quotations can be continued in the direction of the correction level of 38.2% - 1.2765. There is no indicator of the emerging divergences today. Fixing the pair above the Fibo level of 50.0% will work in favor of the EU currency and the start of a new growth in the direction of the correction level of 61.8%.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from September 20, 2018, and January 3, 2019.

1h

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On the hourly chart, the pair similarly performed a reversal in favor of the US dollar and closing below the correction level of 61.8% - 1.2878. As a result, quotes in the direction of the Fibo level of 76.4% - 1.2799 are expected to fall on this chart. Fixing the pair above the correction level of 61.8% will work in favor of the pound sterling and some growth in the direction of the Fibo level of 50.0% - 1.2943. Rebounding from the correction level of 61.8% will increase the chances for a further fall.

The Fibo grid was built on extremes from January 15, 2019, and January 25, 2019.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the GBP / USD pair can be made with a target of 1.2943 and a Stop Loss order below the level of 61.8% if the pair closes above 1.2878 (hourly chart).

Sales of the GBP / USD pair can be carried out with the target of 1.2799 and a Stop Loss order above the level of 61.8% if the pair bounces off of the level of 1.2878 (hourly chart).

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for February 14, 2019

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Overview:

The GBP/USD pair continues to move downwards from the areas of 1.3210 and 1.2913 in the long term. Last week, the pair dropped from the level of 1.3210 to 1.2913 which coincides with a ratio of 61.8% Fibonacci on the H4 chart. Today, resistance is seen at the levels of 1.3130 and 1.3210. So, we expect the price to set below the strong resistance at the levels of 1.3130 and 1.3210; because the price is in a bearish channel now. Amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 1.3010 and 1.2734. Overall, we still prefer a bearish scenario as long as the price is below the level of 1.3010. Furthermore, if the GBP/USD pair is able to break out the bottom at 1.2913, the market will decline further to 1.2734 (daily support 1). Hence, the price will fall into a bearish trend in order to go further towards the strong support at 1.2734 to test it again. The level of 1.2704 will form a double bottom. On the other hand, if the price closes above the strong resistance of 1.3210, the best location for a stop loss order is seen above 1.3250.

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US Shutdown will not postpone Brexit

The Democrats won, therefore, President Trump conceded to Congress. He will sign a compromise budget and there will be no shutdown after February 15.

Brexit: Today, a new vote in the British Parliament agreement with the EU but there is not much hope for the approval of the agreement. The next vote is already announced to be on February 27. Britain will most likely ask the EU to delay the withdrawal from the EU and will receive a delay.

This is generally positive.

Negative: The latest industry data from the EU and Germany is very weak. In Europe, there was clearly a sharp slowdown.

In euro, there will be an out of range movement but the direction is not yet determined.

When the price goes down, we sell from 1.1245.

When the price goes up, we buy from 1.1345.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/AUD for February 14, 2019

Recently, the eurozone presented a series of reports which prove an economic slowdown. Such data is certainly bearish for EUR. Meanwhile AUD is taking advantage of EUR weakness. AUD found support from the latest economic upbeat reports.

Recently ECB President Mario Draghi stated that the European regulator would welcome a common budget for all 19 countries in the Eurozone if it can ensure macroeconomic stabilization functions. According to Draghi, a common budget would increase economic resilience of the individual participating members that will relax a conflict of interests inside the euro area, thus providing price stability. Today German Prelim GDP report was published with an increase to 0.0% from the previous value of -0.2%, failing to meet the expectation of a gain to 0.1% and German WPI also failed to meet the expectation of an increase to 0.3% from the previous value of -1.2% which came in at -0.7%. Ahead of Flash GDP and Flash Employment Change reports to be published today which are both expected to be unchanged at 0.2%, EUR is set to extend its weakness.

On the other hand, China is Australia's largest trading partner with over 30% of the Australian exports going to China. Trade tensions have fueled an economic slowdown in Australia. Besides, China's GDP eased to 6.5% in Q4 2018 which is the weakest quarterly GDP growth in the latest 10 years. AUD is sensitive to any downbeat data from China. Nevertheless, AUD perked up amid robust China's exports and better-than-expected trade balance surplus. Moreover, MI Inflation Expectation also increased to 3.7% from the previous value of 3.5%. Recently Westpac Consumer Sentiment showed significant growth to 4.3% from the previous value of -4.7%. Tomorrow RBA Governor Kent is going to speak about the key interest rate decisions. He is expected to confirm the same rhetoric on monetary policy. Low interest rates are still needed for the domestic economy in the context of global trade tensions.

Meanwhile, AUD is expected gain further momentum against EUR. EUR is doomed to lose more ground versus AUD.

Now let us look at the technical view. The pair is currently trading below 1.5900 area with a daily close which is still pushing lower quite impulsively. After certain correction and volatility at the edge of 1.60, the bearish pressure will resume pushing the price lower towards 1.5500 and later towards 1.5350 support area in the coming days.

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EUR / USD plan for the European session on February 14. Bears returned to the market due to weak data from the eurozone

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Despite the fact that the bears completely regained the market yesterday, the chance for an upward correction of the euro remains. To achieve this, it is necessary to return and consolidate above the resistance of 1.1292 in the first half of the day, which will lead to a larger increase in the area of maximum 1.1329, where I recommend taking profits. In the event of a further decline in the euro with a trend and the release of weak GDP data from Germany and the eurozone, whose publication is scheduled for today, it is best to open long positions to rebound from a new minimum of 1.1223 or from larger support at 1.1180.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Bears can return to the market after the formation of a false breakdown in the area of resistance at 1.1292 and the main task for the first half of the day will be a breakthrough of support at 1.1251. Lower than this level, a large sale will lead to testing of 1.1223 and 1.1180 minimum, where I recommend to fix profits. However, the bearish trend will also be tied today to data on Germany and Eurozone GDP, which is expected to be released in the first half of the day. In the case of good reports and EUR/USD growth above the resistance of 1.1292, I recommend returning to short positions for a rebound from the resistance of 1.1329.

Found in the video review.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in close proximity to about 30-day and 50-day moving averages, which indicates the formation of the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

In the case of an upward correction, the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the area of 1.1314 will limit the upward potential. It is best to return to long positions after testing of the lower limit in the area of 1.1245.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs for February 14

Dear colleagues.

For the currency pair Euro / Dollar, the price forms a local potential for the continuation of the downward trend of February 13 and we expect the development of this structure after the breakdown of 1.1242. For the currency pair Pound / Dollar, we should continue the downward movement after the breakdown of 1.2828. For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, we expect the upward movement to continue after the price passes the range of 1.0086 - 1.0096. For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, we expect to continue moving up after the breakdown of 111.08 and the level of 110.66 is the key support. For the currency pair Euro / Yen, the upward structure of February 8 is expected to develop after the breakdown of 125.35 and the level of 124.79 is the key support. For the currency pair Pound / Yen, the situation is in equilibrium.

Forecast for February 14:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the currency pair Euro / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.1342, 1.1318, 1.1297, 1.1281, 1.1242, 1.1213 and 1.1178. The price forms a local structure to continue moving down from February 13. A downward movement is expected after breakdown 1.1242. In this case, the target is 1.1224 and the passage at the cost of the range of 1.1224 - 1.1213 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. The potential target is 1.1178.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 1.1281 - 1.1297 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. The target is 1.1318 and this level is the key support for the downward structure. Its breakdown will have to form an upward structure. In this case, the target is 1.1342.

The main trend is the formation of a local structure for the bottom of February 13.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1281 Take profit: 1.1295

Buy 1.1298 Take profit: 1.1317

Sell: 1.1242 Take profit: 1.1224

Sell: 1.1213 Take profit: 1.1178

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For the currency pair Pound / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.2991, 1.2929, 1.2885, 1.2828, 1.2789, 1.2722 and 1.2666. We continue to monitor the downward trend of January 28. The short-term downward movement is expected in the area of 1.2828 - 1.2789 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to the movement to the target of 1.2722, near this level is the price consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.2666, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The corrective movement is possible in the range of 1.2885 - 1.2929 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. The target is 1.2991.

The main trend is the downward cycle of January 28, the local structure of February 7.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2885 Take profit: 1.2927

Buy: 1.2932 Take profit: 1.2990

Sell: 1.2826 Take profit: 1.2792

Sell: 1.2787 Take profit: 1.2724

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For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.0147, 1.0134, 1.0111, 1.0096, 1.0086, 1.0055, 1.0042 and 1.0025. The continuation of the development of the ascending structure from February 11 is expected after the price passes the range of 1.0086 - 1.0096. In this case, the target is 1.0111, and consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of 1.0111 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. The goal is 1.0134. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.0147, upon reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term downward movement is expected in the area of 1.0055 - 1.0042 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. The target is 1.0025 and this level is the key support.

The main trend is the local rising structure of February 11.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.0096 Take profit: 1.0110

Buy: 1.0112 Take profit: 1.0132

Sell: 1.0055 Take profit: 1.0044

Sell: 1.0040 Take profit: 1.0025

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For the Dollar / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are 111.74, 111.32, 111.08, 110.66, 110.42, 110.25 and 109.97. We continue to monitor the ascending structure of January 31. The short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 111.08 - 111.32 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a movement to the potential target of 111.74, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

Exit to correction is expected after the breakdown of 110.66. The target is 110.42 and the range of 110.42 - 110.25 is the key support for the top. Its price passage will have to form a downward structure. In this case, the potential target is 109.97.

The main trend is the rising structure of January 31.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 111.10 Take profit: 111.30

Buy: 111.34 Take profit: 111.70

Sell: 110.65 Take profit: 110.44

Sell: 110.25 Take profit: 110.00

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For the currency pair Canadian dollar / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3348, 1.3327, 1.3293, 1.3272, 1.3206, 1.3169, 1.3147, 1.3114 and 1.3068. We expect the development of the downward cycle from February 8, for which a breakdown of the level of 1.3205 is necessary. In this case, the goal is 1.3169 and in the area of 1.3169 - 1.3147 is the price consolidation. The breakdown of the level of 1.3114 will lead to the movement to the level of 1.3114, from this level, there is a high probability of a turn into a correction. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.3068, upon reaching which we expect a rollback.

The short-term upward movement is expected in the area of 1.3272 - 1.3293 and the breakdown of the latter value will have to form a local ascending structure. The target is 1.3327 and the range of 1.3327 - 1.3348.

The main trend is the upward structure of January 31, the formation of the structure for the downward cycle of February 8.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3272 Take profit: 1.3292

Buy: 1.3295 Take profit: 1.3327

Sell: 1.3206 Take profit: 1.3170

Sell: 1.3146 Take profit: 1.3114

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For the currency pair Australian dollar / dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 0.7168, 0.7132, 0.7113, 0.7049, 0.7025, 0.6995 and 0.6977. The price forms the expressed initial conditions for the top of February 11 in a correction from the downward structure. The short-term downward movement is expected in the area of 0.7049 - 0.7025 and the breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. The target is 0.6995 and the potential value for the bottom is 0.6977, upon reaching which we expect a consolidated movement in the area of 0.6977 - 0.6995, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 0.7113 - 0.7132 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a deep correction. The target is 0.7168 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of January 31, the formation of potential for the top of February 11.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7113 Take profit: 0.7130

Buy: 0.7134 Take profit: 0.7166

Sell: 0.7047 Take profit: 0.7027

Sell: 0.7025 Take profit: 0.6995

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For the currency pair Euro / Yen, the key levels on the H1 scale are 126.36, 126.08, 125.66, 125.35, 124.99, 124.79 and 124.46. We are following the formation of the ascending structure of February 8. An upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 125.35. In this case, the goal is 125.66 and consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 125.68 must be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. The target is 126.08. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 126.36, after reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 124.99 - 124.79 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. The goal is 124.46 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the formation of the ascending structure of February 8.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 125.35 Take profit: 125.65

Buy: 125.70 Take profit: 126.05

Sell: 124.97 Take profit: 124.80

Sell: 124.75 Take profit: 124.50

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For the currency pair Pound / Yen, the key levels on the H1 scale are 143.35, 142.86, 142.53, 141.84, 141.18, 140.38 and 139.80. The situation entered into an equilibrium state. We expect short-term downward movement in the range of 141.84 - 141.18 and the breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. The target is 140.38. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 139.80, after reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

The consolidated movement is possible in the area of 142.53 - 142.86 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a deep correction. The target is 143.35 and this level is the key support for the bottom.

The main trend is the equilibrium state.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 142.53 Take profit: 142.84

Buy: 142.88 Take profit: 143.35

Sell: 141.80 Take profit: 141.20

Sell: 141.15 Take profit: 140.45

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Forecast for EUR / USD pair on February 14, 2019

EUR / USD pair

On Wednesday, the euro did not reach any significant technical levels and collapsed by 64 points, slightly covering at least February 12 and began to grow again since the opening of the Asian session. This growth is not yet significant but technically, the double convergence with the Marlin oscillator has already been formed on the four-hour chart. The oscillator itself is already moving to the growth zone. These factors retain the likelihood of another price increase in the range of 1.1350/82, which is determined by Fibonacci levels of 38.2% and 50.0% at H4. The probability that the price will exit above the trend line of the daily scale price channel at 1.1360 has been reduced than yesterday, which we wrote about. Both the Indicator lines of balance and MACD of the daily timeframe are already striving for this point at 1.1360 and approached 1.1350 of the MACD line on the four-hour timeframe. Overcoming the price of today's low at 1.1249 will allow the price to drop to 1.1215, which was the November minimum.

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Forecast for GBP / USD pair on February 14, 2019

GBP / USD pair

As expected, the British pound begins a stage of heightened volatility recently. the GBP / USD quotation reached the consolidation range on February 6-8 but could not linger enough for investors to reposition their deals yesterday. However, trading volumes were the largest in the last 7 days, which indicates a simple triggering of protective orders. On the daily chart, the price is currently below the MACD line but we can only talk about price fixation after closing of today's session. There is a risk of re-testing yesterday's high of 1.2958 as the price is held by the balance line on the daily timeframe for the whole previous two days when the pound tried to overcome the MACD line. Also, weak double convergence is formed on the four-hour chart.

Hence, overall, we are waiting for a retest of yesterday's high, which was approached by the MACD line at 1.2958 on the four-hour chart. Fixing of the price below 1.2832 will automatically correspond to the fixation under the daily balance line. A further decrease in the pound is likely to support the nested line of the price channel around 1.2612. To fix the signal, it is worth waiting for the price to leave below the level of 1.2814, which was the maximum of December 31 marked with a tick on the daily chart.

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GBP / USD. February 13. Results of the day. Theresa May continues to make time, Ford leaves the UK

4-hour timeframe

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The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 54p - 143p - 54p - 98p - 77p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 85p (95p).

The British pound sterling on Wednesday, February 13, corrected to the moving average line but failed to overcome it, which once again indicates the "strength" of the pound and the lack of demand for it. Today in the UK, the consumer price index was published. In monthly terms, in January, it decreased by 0.8%, and in annual terms, it was 1.8%, which is lower than the forecast values. The retail price index was also worse than market expectations. Thus, traders got a new reason to start selling pound sterling again. Nevertheless, we expect the resumption of the downward movement, as there were no fundamental reasons for strengthening the British currency, and the technical picture is also completely on the side of the US currency. As for Brexit, the American concern Ford, which has two factories in the UK, has already notified Theresa May that it is looking for an alternative place for production facilities abroad due to the sheer uncertainty about Brexit. Theresa May herself, according to the general opinion, pulls time. She manages to pull away, the more chances that the voting will be held as close as possible to the date of the country's exit from the EU and politicians will have to choose between the "hard" version of Brexit and Brexit according to the May plan. If the EU refuses to enter into new negotiations, what other option could there be? In general, nothing positive for the British pound in the UK is happening now. As we said earlier, the pound is required now on any decision on Brexit, just not maintaining uncertainty.

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD continues to be adjusted. Thus, it is recommended to open new sell orders if the MACD indicator is turned down with the support level of 1.2828.

Long positions in small lots will become relevant after traders overcome the critical line. In this case, the first target will be the level of 1.2987, but there are still no fundamental reasons for moving up.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chinkou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

Redline and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold is negotiating

Gold continues to consolidate in the $1300-1320 range per ounce against the backdrop of uncertainty about the outcome of the US-China trade negotiations. The US stocks with applause greeted Donald Trump's statement about a possible shift of the date in tariff increase from 10% to 25% for $200 billion of the Middle Kingdom's imports from March 1 to a later period. Meanwhile, the yield of treasury bonds remained almost unchanged. Working in the debt market, investors are well aware that the game with the terms does not remove the uncertainty, but only prolongs its life. While the issue has not yet been resolved, it's too early to rejoice, which means that the demand for safe-haven assets will be high.

The precious metal reacts sensitively to the real yield of US bonds, as well as, the dynamics of the US dollar and the change in the global risk appetite. In this regard, the increase in the share of investors polled by Bank of America Merrill Lynch, who assume that the S&P 500 has reached its ceiling, creates a solid foundation for the upward trend in XAU/USD from 11% in September to 34% in February. Given the potential slowdown in US consumer prices to 1.5% in January, the real rates of the US debt market will remain under pressure, which gives a helping hand to the bulls on gold. If it isn't for the strong position of the US dollar, the rally probably would have continued.

In the physical asset market after an impressive 70 tons of ETF reserves growth in January, the figure dropped by 20 tons in February. China buys precious metals for the second time in a row to replenish reserves. In December, it was about 10 tons and in January, it is estimated at 11.8 tons. The Middle Kingdom has the sixth largest figure in the world, while the share of gold in the gold and foreign exchange reserves has a modest value of 2.4%. In comparison, Germany in the United States is around 70%. Amid a slowdown in the local economy and uncertainty about the outcome of trade negotiations with Washington, Beijing has significant potential to increase the share of gold in reserves. At the same time, Goldman Sachs predicts that central banks will buy as much gold (650 tons) in 2019 as much as in 2018 due to increased geopolitical uncertainty and reduced pressure on the currencies of developing countries.

Dynamics of Chinese gold reserves

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Thus, the offensive outburst of the bulls on XAU/USD was held back by a strong dollar. But after the "dovish" rhetoric of Jerome Powell in January, many banks and investment companies painted a "bearish" picture for him. In fact, there are always two currencies in any pair, thus its quotes depend not only on the Fed but also on competing central banks. The latter took the fashion to either maintain the previous parameters of monetary policy or hint at its easing. As a result, the "American" looks like the cleanest shirt among the dirty laundry, which does not allow gold to spread its wings.

In the technical aspect, the strategies of forming long positions at the end of the supports for $1,310 and $ 1,300 per ounce are still working but to continue the rally, the bulls on the precious metal must take the resistance by storm at $1,322.

Gold daily chart

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of EUR / USD for February 14. The euro is ready for a raise, will the news prevent it?

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Wave counting analysis:

On Wednesday, February 13, trading ended for EUR / USD by 65 bpts. Thus, wave 3, which can still be transformed into a wave from the three wave sections of the trend in its internal wave structure looks complete. However, it is confused only by its size relative to the first wave of this area. It is this factor that suggests that wave 3 is still a wave from a trend already completed or nearing completion. If this is true, then instead of a single upward wave, we are now waiting for the construction of a new ascending set of waves. This option is opposed to the news background, which, to put it mildly, is not in favor of the euro.

Sales targets:

1.1228 - 127.0% Fibonacci

1.1215 - 0.0% Fibonacci

Shopping goals:

1.1444 - 38.2% Fibonacci

1.1514 - 50.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair supposedly completed the construction of the downward wave 3. Thus, now I recommend waiting for confirmations to the beginning of the upward wave construction with targets located near the estimated 1.1444 mark, which corresponds to 38.2% Fibonacci, and after receiving them to buy the instrument.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review for February 14, 2019 for the pair EUR / USD

The market decided once again to test the level of 1.1258 - the support line (blue bold line), but it never reached it. On Thursday, strong calendar news is expected at 16.30 Moscow time.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Thursday, the price will continue to move down. The first lower target 1.1258 is the support line (blue bold line), then the top is possible.

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Thursday, the price will continue to move down. The first lower target of 1.1258 is the support line (blue bold line), then the top is possible with the first upper target of 1.1313 - the recoil level is 23.6% (yellow dotted line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com