Gold analysis for November 26, 2015

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Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading sideways around the level of $1,072.00. In the daily time frame, I found a supply bar and rejection from the SMA10. Our strong support around the levels of $1,075.00-$1,080.00 has become a strong resistance (changing polarity) now. In the M30 time frame, our diagonal trend line got broken today, so watch for intraday selling opportunities. I also spoted strong rejection from Fibonacci retracement 50% at the level of $1,074.00. Intraday support is found at $1,065.00. Next strong daily support is seen around the level of $1,046.00.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels

R1: 1,071.54

R2: 1,072.35

R3: 1,073.80

Support levels:

S1: 1,068.90

S2: 1,068.00

S3: 1,066.70

Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying gold since I saw a breakout of the diagonal trend line. Watch for potential selling opportunities.

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EUR/NZD analysis for November 26, 2015

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Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving downwards. As I had expected, the price tested the level of 1.6083. The short-term trend has changed from neutral to downward. The major 22-day trading range support at the level of 1.6150 was finally broken. In the H4 time frame, our strong support area between the price of 1.6150-1.6240 now became strong resistance. Watch for potential selling opportunities. The support level is at the price of 1.6085.

Fibonacci Pivot Points :

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6230

R2: 1.6265

R3: 1.6325

Support levels:

S1: 1.6110

S2: 1.6075

S3: 1.6015

Trading recommendations : Intraday selling opportunities are preferable. The first support level is at the price of 1.6085. According to the daily time frame, the profit level is at the price of 1.5720.

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Global macro overview for 26/11/2015

Global macro overview for 26/11/2015:

The Moody's Rating Agency supports its rating of Japan at the A1 level despite the heavy debt burden and weak growth. In the annual update for investors, the credit analysis of the Government of Japan was assessed as "High (+)"]; Institutional Strength ["Very High"]; Fiscal Strength ["High (-)"]; and Susceptibility to Event Risk ["Low (-)"]. This would mean Japan's outlook is currently rated as stable and it is supported by fundamental features that make an extraordinarily high level of government debt affordable.

The USD/JPY pair is trading in a narrow daily range between the technical support at the level of 122.24 and technical resistance at the level of 123.77.

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Global macro overview for 26/11/2015

Global macro overview for 26/11/2015:

The US released several fundamental data yesterday. Unemployment Claims decreased to 260k, well off the estimate of 273k. There was really good news on Core Durable Goods, which rebounded with a strong gain of 0.5%, matching the market expectations. UoM Consumer Sentiment improved to 91.3 points, but the markets were overly optimistic, as the expectations were at 93.2 points. This consumer confidence indicator comes on the heels of CB Consumer Confidence, which dropped to 90.4 points, nowhere close to the estimate of 99.3 points. These weak consumer confidence readings could raise concerns as soft consumer confidence numbers could turn to weaker consumer spending, which is a main driver of the economic growth in the USA.

The US Dollar Index is trading just below the important resistance at the level of 100.39, still well above 50,100 and 200 moving average. The support is seen at the level of 98.34.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for November 26, 2015

General overview for 26/11/2015 09:50 CET

The ending diagonal pattern probably needs only one sub-wave lower to complete. The target is still at the level of 129.50, but the bullish divergence between the price and momentum indicator supports the rebound scenario.

Support/Resistance:

129.48 - WS2

129.76 - Intraday Support

129.96 - WS1

130.47 - Intraday Resistance

130.78 - Intraday Resistance

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should wait for the TP at the level of 129.50 to be hit.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for November 26, 2015

General overview for 26/11/2015 09:30 CET

The golden trend line is still providing a dynamic resistance as the market is struggling to break above it. The key level of 1.3333 has not been broken yet as well, but there is still one more missing wave to the upside to complete the main count.

Support/Resistance:

1.3278 - WS1

1.3323 - Weekly Pivot

1.3343 - Intraday Resistance

1.3403 - WR1

1.3433 - Technical Resistance

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should consider reopening buy orders from the level of 1.3345 with tight SL and TP at the level of 1.3380.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for November 26, 2015

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USD/CHF is expected to trade on the upside as bias remains bullish. The pair broke above its previous key resistance at 1.0170, which becomes a support now, and accelerated on the upside. The 50-period moving average is rising and suggests further upside potential. The relative strength index is above its neutrality area at 50 and lacks downward momentum. As long as 1.0170 holds on the downside, look for a further upside towards 1.0250 and 1.0280 in extension.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 1.0250 and the second target at 1.0280. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 1.0140 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 1.0120. The pivot point is at 1.0170.

Resistance levels: 1.0250 1.0280 1.0315

Support levels: 1.0140 1.0120 1.0090

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for November 26, 2015

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USD/JPY is expected to trede with bullish bias. Overnight, US stock indexes closed broadly flat with the trading volume getting lighter ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.2 points to 17,813, the S&P 500 slipped 0.2 point to 2,088, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 13.3 points (0.3%) at 5116. Nymex crude oil rose 0.4% to $43.04 a barrel, and gold declined 0.4% to $1,071 an ounce. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell to 2.232% from 2.243% in the previous session.

The US dollar was boosted by a series of economic data which upheld expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in December. For example, new durable goods orders increased 3.0% in October (vs +1.7% expected; -0.8% in September), and initial jobless claims declined to 260,000 for the week ended November 21 from 272,000 a week before. The Wall Street Journal Dollar Index edged up 0.1% to 90.43. EUR/USD made a fresh 7-month low of 1.0565 before rebounding, and USD/CHF surged to as high as 1.0260. The pair has broken above a declining trend line and remains on the upside. It is currently trading around the 20-period intraday moving average (30-minute chart), which has crossed above the 50-period one. Meanwhile, the relative strength index is standing above the neutrality level at 50. As long as 122.40 holds as the key support, the pair could rise towards the first upside target at 122.80 (around yesterday's high) and the second one at 123.05.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 122.80 and the second target at 123.05. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 122.20 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 122.00. The pivot point is at 122.40.

Resistance levels: 122.80 123.05 123.50

Support levels: 122.20 122 121.80

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USDX technical analysis for November 26, 2015

The Dollar index is making higher highs and higher lows but the stochastic oscillator is not making higher highs. This is a sign of the bullish momentum weakening. This is a warning sign for bulls. Bulls need to be very cautious and raise their stops.

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Blue lines - bullish channel

Red lines - bearish divergence signs

The Dollar index is still trading above the Ichimoku cloud and inside the bullish channel. Support is at 99.35-99.25. Stochastic oscillator on the 4-hour chart is giving bearish divergence signals. Resistance is at 100.25.

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The Daily chart of the Dollar index remains bullish but we should expect a pullback soon as this upward move from 93.80 has extended too much and the daily stochastic has been overbought for too long. Support is at 99-98,75 on a daily basis and a target for the pullback is the 97.50 price level. The long-term trend remains bullish as price is above the Ichimoku cloud.

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for November 26, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/CHF pair is seen to be trading around 1.5460/70 level for now and facing minor resistance here. It is quite possible that the pair may retrace lower from current levels before resuming a rally. It is hence recommended to take profits on the long positions from yesterday and remain flat. Immediate support is seen through 1.5300 levels, followed by 1.5200 and lower while resistance is seen at 1.5570 and higher respectively. A drop below 1.5300 levels would confirm that the pair is due for a deeper correction lower. The hourly charts are showing tat the pair is due for a correction at least.

Trading recommendations:

Take profits on long positions. Remain flat.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for November 26, 2015

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NZD/USD is expected to continue the upside movement. The rising 20- and 50-period moving averages are providing support to the pair. The relative strength index stands firmly above its neutrality level at 50 and lacks downward momentum. A support base has formed around 0.6535, which should limit the downside potential. As long as 0.6535 is support, look for a further upside toward 0.6615 and 0.6640 in extension.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6615 and the second target at 0.6640. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6490 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.6460. The pivot point is at 0.6535.

Resistance levels: 0.6615 0.6640 0.6675

Support levels: 0.6490 0.6460 0.6430

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Gold technical analysis for November 26, 2015

Gold price is very weak as bulls are unable to break above short-term resistance. Prices are testing the recent lows and a break below $1,060 could push price to $1,045-50 to complete the downward move. This will be avoided only if bulls manage to push price above $1,090 soon.

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Black line - resistance

Green line - support

Gold price is trading below the 4-hour Ichimoku cloud resistance but also above the support at $1,064-66. However, the price pattern increases the chances of a downward breakdown taking into consideration the 3rd rejection at the cloud resistance we saw yesterday. Only a break above $1,083 will change the short-term trend to bullish.

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Yellow line - long-term resistance

Red lines - bullish wedge

We should not forget the bigger picture in Gold. Whether the low is in or even if we see a new low towards $1,045, the downside is very limited and a bounce is justified and we should expect one very soon. I expect at least a bounce towards $1,120-30 as the stochastic is oversold and we should not forget how prices reacted every time the stochastic reached these levels.

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for November 26, 2015

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range as a bias remains bullish. The pair is posting a rebound after testing the key support at 184.90 overnight. It is currently trading around both the 20- and 50-period moving averages. And the relative strength index is staying above the neutrality level at 50. The intraday outlook continues to be bullish with the first upside target being set at 186 and the second one at 186.55.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 186 and the second target at 186.55. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 184.30 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 183.85. The pivot point is at 184.90.

Resistance levels: 186 186.55 187

Support levels: 184.30 183.85 183

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for November 26, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY pair is seen to be trading around 130.20 levels after printing fresh lows at 129.80 levels earlier. Bullish divergences are seen on the 4H chart view (not shown here), indicating that a potential reversal could be just around the corner. It is hence recommended to initiate at least 50% long positions now with risk at 129.60 levels. Immediate support is seen at 129.80 levels (interim), followed by 127.00, 126.00 and lower while resistance is seen through 131.00 levels, followed by 132.00 and higher respectively. A break below 129.80 levels would delay the counter trend rally that is due since a while now.

Trading recommendations:

Initiate 50% long, stop at 129.60, a target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Silver for November 26, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver is trading around $14.20 levels at the moment, after bouncing off the resistance turned support trend line at $14.05 levels, as depicted on the 4H chart view here. Please note that the metal could push through $14.55 and subsequently through $14.95 levels, if bulls are able to sustain $14.04 lows and subsequently $13.90 levels. It is still recommended to remain flat in the metal and wait for a break of at least $14.55 levels. Immediate interim support is seen at $14.04 levels, followed by $13.93 and lower, while resistance is seen at $14.55 levels, followed by $14.0 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now. Look for a break above $14.55 levels.

Good luck!

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for November 26 - 2015

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Wave summary:

Eventually it seems as the last part of the expected decline closer to 1.5898 is now unfolding. We have seen a new low of the decline from 1.9114 and once this decline bottoms out a major rally is expected.

In the short term, we expect minor resistance at 1.6261 and more importantly resistance at 1.6377 as a break above the later indicates that the corrective decline from 1.9114 is over.

Trading recommendation:

We are look to buy EUR at 1.5925 or upon a break above 1.6377 (one order done cancels the other).

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Technical analysis of Gold for November 26, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold is seen to be trading around $1,072.00/73.00 levels for now, oscillating in a perfect harmony within the cone consolidation as depicted on the hourly chart view here. Giving due respect to the bounce it has taken from the support line passing around $1,069.00/70.00 levels, it is recommended to exit short positions taken yesterday and turn bullish with risk around $1,063.00 levels. Immediate support is seen at $1,068.00 levels, followed by $1.067.00, $1,063.50 and lower while resistance is seen through $1,080.00 levels, followed by $1,090.00 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Take profits on short positions taken yesterday from $1,080.00. Go long now, stop at $1,062.50, a target is open.

Good luck!

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 26 - 2015

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Wave summary:

The break below important support at 130.12 is very frustrating and has forced us back to the drawing broad. We still think that the decline from 140.73 is quite messy, but our new preferred count shows that a possible new zig-zag combination is unfolding. We are currently in wave (iii) of wave A which is expected to reach 123.57 before a larger correction in wave B is seen.

In the short term, we will ideally see minor resistance at 132.50 protect the upside for the next part of the decline towards 125.34. It will take a break above resistance at 133.22 to question this count.

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 130.10 was hit for a very small loss. We are looking to sell EUR near 132.50 with stop placed at 133.30.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for November 26, 2015

EUR/USD: Based on the price action in the market, it is not currently rational to seek long trades here, though the market looks oversold. The support line at 1.0550 is the next target for bears, should the price moves further southwards. Because of a bank holiday in the US, there would not be any significant movement today.

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USD/CHF: After testing the resistance level at 1.0200, this pair has succeeded in staying above it. The bullish bias is intact and it would hold out as long as the price is above the support level at 1.0150. Only a very strong selling pressure is needed to take the price below that support level, something that currently does not exist in the market.

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GBP/USD: This week, the GBP/USD has gone down 120 pips so far, almost testing the accumulation territory at 1.5050. Since the selling pressure in the market still exists, there is a possibility that the accumulation territory would be breached to the downside, irrespective of the shallow upwards bounce in the market.

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USD/JPY: The USD/JPY pair has formed a kind of a "sell" signal," There is a now a Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the chart as the price moves below the EMA 56 and the RSI period 14 moves below the level 50. The demand level at 122.00 could be tested easily.

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EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY pair briefly went below the demand zone at 130.00 before going above it again. The price is now below the supply zone at 130.50, while the overall bias remains bearish. In case the bearish journey continues, the demand zone at 130.00 could be tested again. It could even be breached to the downside.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for November 26, 2015

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When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as GfK German Consumer Climate, Private Loans y/y, and M3 Money Supply y/y. However, the US will not release any economic data, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.0677.

Strong Resistance:1.0670.

Original Resistance: 1.0660.

Inner Sell Area: 1.0650.

Target Inner Area: 1.0625.

Inner Buy Area: 1.0599.

Original Support: 1.0589.

Strong Support: 1.0579.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.0572.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for November 26, 2015

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Today, Japan and the US will not release any economic data. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 123.27.

Resistance. 2: 123.03.

Resistance. 1: 122.79.

Support. 1: 122.49.

Support. 2: 122.25.

Support. 3: 122.01.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for November 26, 2015

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair has shown signs of following the break of the highest level of 1.0207 and has opened above the daily pivot point today. Therefore, it will be a good sign to buy above the level of 1.0207 with the first target at 1.0244 and resume to 1.0260 with a view to test the double top. However, in case a reversal takes place and the USD/CHF pair breaks through the support level of 1.0190, the market is likely to decline to 0.9434 in order to indicate a correction movement at this level. Meanwhile, the daily chart represents a strong support at 1.0154, moreover the channel emerging of the RSI is still positive on most of time frames, so the RSI calls for a new uptrend at this level. In addition, if the price keeps set above the level of 1.0200; then it would be more a confirmation of an uptrend in a long-term period.

Forecast:

  • The trend is still calling for a strong bullish market from the spot of 1.0200 and 1.0165. Hence, buy above this area (1.0200 and 1.0165) with the targets of 1.0244 and 1.0260 in coming hours.
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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for November 26, 2015

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Overview:

  • The GBP/USD pair probably will move between the levels of 1.5053 and 1.5194, because the trend has rebounded from the spot of 1.5053/1.5060 yesterday and closed at the price of 1.5115 (it does mean that the range was more than 62 pips). Hence, the pair will probably go upward because the bullish trend is still strong from the area of 1.5053 and 1.5100. The resistance is set at the level of 1.5225 which coincides with the ratio of 61.8% of Fibonacci retracement levels on H1 chart. Consequently, the market will indicate a bullish opportunity above 1.5100 again, because the level of 1.5100 is going to act as a minor support today. Accordingly, it will be a good idea to buy above this level today with the first target at 1.5161 in order to test the daily pivot point and continues further up to the levels of 1.5194 and 1.5225. Moreover, if the trend succeeds to close below 1.5100 on the H4 chart, then the market will be developing in a downtrend below the daily support level towards the level of 1.5053 and 1.5012. However, the stop loss should be placed below 1.5005.
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Daily analysis of USDX for November 26, 2015

On H1 chart, USDX tried to consolidate again above the 100.00 price zone, but the Index is trying to correct the current rally towards the 200 SMA around the support level of 99.25. If USDX does a rebound above it, then we could see another rally above the 100.24 level in the short term. That moving average is slightly bullish, but MACD indicator is on the negative territory.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 99.80 / 100.24

H1 chart's support levels: 99.25 / 98.82

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 99.80, take profit is at 100.24, and stop loss is at 99.37.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for November 26, 2015

GBP/USD is making some higher recover moves towards the resistance level of 1.5142, where a strong pullback could happen, as the Cable is still forming a lower low pattern on H1 chart. 200 SMA is turning into the neutral territory. However, if the pair does a breakout below 1.5062, then we can see more weakness for the short term. MACD indicator is on the positive territory.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5142 / 1.5176

H1 chart's support levels: 1.5100 / 1.5062

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.5100, take profit is at 1.5062, and stop loss is at 1.5137.

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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for November 25, 2015

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Overview:

Strong bullish pressure was applied at the resistance level of 1.5800 via the previous bullish swing.

Hence, the resistance level of 1.5800 was temporarily breached. Bulls moved towards 1.5900 where the depicted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was confirmed.

Later, the support level of 1.5555 got breached due to the excessive bearish pressure, which originated at 1.5800.

The GBP/USD pair moved towards the support zone of 1.5170-1.5150 where a valid intraday buy entry was offered especially after the evident bullish rejection, which took place on October 6.

Note that bearish persistence below the level of 1.5200 was needed for a further bearish decline towards the level of 1.4950 (prominent weekly support). Instead, a bullish breakout above 1.5200 has been expressed on the previous Tuesday.

Bullish fixation above the price zone of 1.5200-1.5250 allowed a bullish movement towards 1.5330 where the upper limit of the depicted channel applied significant bearish pressure over the GBP/USD pair.

This week, bearish persistence below 1.5030 (important key-level) allows a quick bearish decline towards 1.4950 (previous weekly bottom).

On the other hand, a stronger support level is located at 1.4850 (the lower limit of the depicted movement channel).

This is where a low-risk buy entry can be offered to conservative traders.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for November 25, 2015

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Overview:

A bullish breakout above the zone of 1.2770-1.2800 was observed on July 15 (highlighted in blue).

The long-term bullish target was projected towards the level of 1.3270 (100% Fibonacci Expansion). However, bulls moved further above the Fibonacci level, which was previously breached to the upside on September 23 and recently on November 12.

Significant bearish rejection has been observed around 1.3450 (141.4% Fibonacci Expansion).

Later on October 1, bearish closure below 1.3270 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%) was expressed. This exposes the next support levels around 1.2910 and 1.2750 where long-term buy entries were suggested.

A bearish breakout below the support level of 1.3075 was mandatory to allow the further bearish decline towards 1.2930. However, an evident bullish rejection was expressed around this level.

Another bullish visit to the level of 1.3270 (FE 100%) was initiated on November 4. A bullish breakout above 1.3300 was performed again on November 13 .

Daily persistence above 1.3300 exposed the next resistance level at 1.3450 (Fibonacci Expansion 141.0%) where a valid sell entry could be offered.

On the other hand, bearish breakdown below 1.3300 (FE 100%) enhances the bearish side of the market once again.

Trading recommendations:

Conservative traders should wait for an obvious bearish closure below 1.3250 (FE 100%) to sell the USD/CAD pair.

S/L should be placed above 1.3370.

Initial T/P levels should be placed at 1.3150 and 1.3080.

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