Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for January 6, 2015

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Previously, the GBP/USD pair found temporary DEMAND around 1.5550 where many lows were established within a congestion zone back in November 2014.


A bearish breakout was expressed after successive unsuccessful attempts back in 2014.


A bearish flag pattern is obvious on the daily chart, similar to what happened back in October. Bearish breakout of this continuation pattern enabled the bears to reach price level of 1.5550 directly.


Final bearish target would be located at the price level of 1.5140 where the lower limit of the movement channel is located.


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Consolidation movement ranging between the price levels of 1.5770 and 1.5550 represented the state of indecision on the market after such a long bearish rally that started off 1.7100 and 1.6500.


As anticipated, the bearish breakout below 1.5550 directly exposed lower targets. The bears have already reached price level of 1.5160 that hasn't been visited since August 2013.


Potential projection target for flag continuation pattern should be located around 1.5140 down to 1.5100 where the lower limit of the current movement channel is located.


Conservative traders should wait for a bullish pull-back towards the recent SUPPLY zone around 1.5480-1.5550 for a low-risk SELL entry. The stop loss should be located above 1.5560.


Note that the price level of 1.5480 corresponds to 50% Fibonacci level as well as multiple previous bottoms established back in December.


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#USDX technical analysis for January 6, 2015

The Dollar index is making a pullback after the gap up on Monday. Trend remains bullish and is very strong so traders should avoid betting against it. The weekly chart shows an important upward break out above the long-term resistance of the 38% retracement.


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Purple line = support


The Dollar index remains above the purple trend line which is important short-term support. The tenkan-sen indicator has been broken but this is a sign of weakness only for the short-term. This means that we could see a pull back lower towards the kijun-sen at 90.80 before resuming the up trend. Medium-term support is at the green area where the Ichimoku cloud is currently at.


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The weekly chart is very clear portraying the dollar strength. The 38% retracement has been broken upwards and unless this is a fake break out(we will know very soon), this upward move is expected to continue towards the 50% retracement. So there is still much more upside potential for the dDollar. It is just making a small pause.


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Technical analysis of gold for January 6, 2015

Gold price has broken above short-term resistance and can push even towards $1,220 but the wedge pattern we observe is tightening and if price breaks back below $1,200 we could see another test of the recent lows.


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Gold price is forming a bearish wedge. The short-term trend remains bullish as prices continue to make higher highs and higher lows, while we have broken short-term resistance at $1,200-$1,205. If price manages to hold above $1,200 (lower wedge trend line and Ichimoku cloud) we could see a run towards $1,220. If $1,200 is broken, we should expect a sharp move towards $1,190 at least.


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However, the bigger picture also has another potential scenario as the rise from recent lows at $1,130 is far from impulsive. The most probable scenario I see is the formation of another sideways large triangle. This is what I believe is the most probable path for gold price.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for January 6 - 2015

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Technical summary:


We saw the expected resistance at 1.5679 protect the upside for a decline to new lows. We will now be looking for a break below support at 1.5407 confirming continuation lower towards support at 1.5205, where wave iii will be 261.8% longer than wave i. In the short term only a break above minor resistance at 1.5532 would delay the expected decline towards 1.5205. To invalidate the bearish count, a break above 1.5679 is needed.


Trading recommendation:


We are short EUR from 1.5620 and will move our stop lower to 1.5545. If you are not short EUR yet, then sell it near 1.5532 with the same stop at 1.5545.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for January 6 - 2015

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Technical summary:


We have now seen the expected decline to the 142.44 target (the low has been 142.26). We could still see a move slightly lower to 142.06, but a bottom should be close by. In the short term a break above minor resistance at 142.97 will be the first indication of a possible bottom, while a break above resistance at 144.16 is needed to confirm the bottom for a rally towards at least 145.57 and above that level a return to the 149.78 high and above would be confirmed.


Trading recommendation:


We took profit on our short EUR position from 145.90 at 142.55. We will buy EUR at 142.10 or upon a break above 142.97. The stop will be placed at 141.50.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for January 06, 2015

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Fundamental overview:
USD/JPY is expected to trade in lower range. It is undermined by the flows to haven JPY and unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 11.97% to 19.92, S&P 500 closed 1.83% lower at 2,020.58 overnight) as concerns mount over a possible Greek exit from the eurozone, while a renewed slide in oil prices to fresh five-and-a-half year lows and news that German inflation had fallen to a five-year low in December raised an uncertain global growth outlook. USD/JPY is also weighed by the lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.035% versus 2.123% late Friday) and Japan exporter sales. But USD/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japan importers, Bank of Japan's large-scale monetary easing policy and bullish USD sentiment (ICE spot dollar index hit nine-year high 91.775 Monday, last at 91.39) amid expectations that the U.S. economy will pull ahead of the rest of the world this year and that the Federal Reserve would start raising interest rates in coming months ahead of other major central banks and jump in U.S. ISM-NY business index to 70.8 in December from 62.4 in November.


Technical comment:
Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish, stochastics is turning bearish at overbought levels, but five-day moving average is meandering sideways above rising 15-day moving average.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 120.30 and the second target at 120.75. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 118.80. A break of this target would push the pair further downward and one may expect the second target at 118.30. The pivot point is at 119.90.


Resistance levels:

120.30

120.75

121



Support levels:

118.80

118.30

118


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for January 06, 2015

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Fundamental overview:

NZD/USD is expected to consolidate after hitting a near-one-month low of 0.7616 on Monday. It is undermined by the positive USD sentiment, weak commodity prices; kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD cross and kiwi sales on soft NZD/JPY cross amid increased investor risk aversion. But NZD/USD downside is limited by the NZD/USD interest differential and kiwi demand on soft EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD crosses.


Technical comment:
The daily chart is negative-biased as MACD and slow stochastic indicators are bearish, five-day moving average is falling below 15-day moving average.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.7765 and the second target at 0.78. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short posisitions are recommended with the first target at 0.7615. A break of this target would push the pair further downward and one may expect the second target at 0.7575. The pivot point is at 0.7650.


Resistance levels:

0.7765

0.78

0.7845



Support levels:


0.7615

0.7575

0.7535


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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for January 06, 2015

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Fundamental overview:
GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate with bearish bias. GBP/JPY is undermined by the weak GBP sentiment drop in CIPS/ Markit U.K. construction PMI to 57.6 in December from 59.4 in November, sterling sales on soft GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and GBP/CAD crosses, and Japan exports. But GBP/JPY losses are tempered by demand from Japan importers.


Technical comment:
Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD and slow stochastic indicators bearish, although the latter is at oversold levels, five and 15-day moving averages are declining.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 181.35. A break of this target will move the pair further downward to 180.30. The pivot point stands at 183.65. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 185 and the second target at 185.70.


Resistance levels:

185

185.70

186.50


Support levels:

181.35

180.30

179.75


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for January 06, 2015

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Fundamental overview:
USD/CHF is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias after hitting four-year high 1.0108 Monday. USD/CHF is underpinned by bullish USD sentiment (ICE spot dollar index hit nine-year high 91.775 Monday, last at 91.39) amid expectations that the U.S. economy will pull ahead of the rest of the world this year and that the Federal Reserve would start raising interest rates in coming months ahead of other major central banks as well as a jump in U.S. ISM-NY business index to 70.8 in December from 62.4 in November, weaker--than-expected Switzerland December PMI of 54.0 (versus forecast 54.3), franc sales on soft CHF/JPY cross and on buoyant AUD/CHF, NZD/CHF and CAD/CHF crosses, and ultra-loose Swiss National Bank's monetary policy.


Technical comment:
Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at overbought levels, five and 15-day moving averages are advancing.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 1.0140 and the second target at 1.0180. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9980. A break of this target would push the pair further downward, and one may expect the second target at 0.9930. The pivot point is at 1.0030.


Resistance levels:

1.0140

1.0180

1.0210


Support levels:

0.9980

0.9930

0.99


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Daily analysis of USDX for January 06, 2015

The USDX continues to reach new high levels in the H4 chart, because this instrument is about to consolidate above bullish trendline at the level of 91.50. On the upside, it is very likely that the USDX will rise to the resistance level of 93.00 in the medium term, although the USDX could begin to form a bullish pattern.


H4chart's resistance levels: 91.70 / 92.50


H4chart's support levels: 90.16 / 89.55


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In the H1 chart, during yesterday's session, the USDX found strong bearish pressure at the level of 91.66, so this instrument moved into a range. However, remember that if the USDX makes a breakout at the support level of 91.24, it's expected to fall to the level of 90.74, where this instrument would fill one bullish gap.


H1 chart's resistance levels: 91.66 / 92.08


H1 chart's support levels: 91.24 / 90.74


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Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 91.66, take profit is at 92.08, and stop loss is at 91.23.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for January 06, 2015

In the H4 chart, GBP/USD continues to weaken and lose positions below the resistance level of 1.5341. So far, this pair has been trying to find support on the bearish trend line near the 1.5200 level. If GBP/USD makes a breakout in that area, the next target would be the support level of 1.5148.


H4chart's resistance levels: 1.5341 / 1.5485


H4chart's support levels: 1.5148 / 1.5017


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GBP/USD continues to move in a negative tone, at least in the short term. So far, the pair had already done a rebound at the level of 1.5200 and now GBP/USD is forming a bearish pattern again. In the downside, the support level of 1.5198 remains the next objective, if the pair achieves consolidation below the level of 1.5249. The MACD indicator remains in positive territory.


H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5295 / 1.5333


H1 chart's support levels: 1.5249 / 1.5198


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Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.5249, take profit is at 1.5198, and stop loss is at 1.5302.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for January 06, 2015

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When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as Final Services PMI, Italian Services PMI, and Spanish Services PMI. The US will release its Factory Orders m/m, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, and Final Services PMI. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move low to medium volatility today during this day.


Today's technical levels:


Breakout BUY Level: 1.2000.


Strong Resistance:1.1993.


Original Resistance: 1.1981.


Inner Sell Area: 1.1969.


Target Inner Area: 1.1941.


Inner Buy Area: 1.1913.


Original Support: 1.1901.


Strong Support: 1.1889.


Breakout SELL Level: 1.1882.


Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for January 06, 2015

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In Asia, Japan will release its 10-y Bond Auction and Monetary Base y/y data, while the US will unveil its economic reports such as Factory Orders m/m, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, and Final Services PMI. So there is a big probability USD/JPY will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with low to medium volatility during the US session.


Today's technical levels:


Resistance. 3: 119.95.


Resistance. 2: 119.72.


Resistance. 1: 119.49.


Support. 1: 119.20.


Support. 2: 118.97.


Support. 3: 118.73.


Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for January 5, 2015

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Overview:


The GBP/USD pair has been moving downward respecting the depicted bearish channel since mid-September when the ongoing channel was initiated.


Recently, the market failed to express bullish breakout above the price level of 1.5760 (upper limit of the daily bearish channel).


Instead, extensive bearish breakout was applied against the price levels of 1.5540-1.5560 (this breakdown was successfully executed on December 23).


DAILY fixation below the recent bottoms established around 1.5540-1.5560 rendered the previous consolidation range as a bearish flag pattern with potential projected target at 1.5300 that was reached earlier today.


The key level for today's movement is 1.5265. Persistent fixation below it signals more bearish dominance towards the lower limit of the movement channel around 1.5130.


On the other hand, four-hour fixation above price level of 1.5265 pauses the current bearish decline exposing price level of 1.5370 then 1.5410 for retesting.


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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for January 5, 2015

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Previously, DAILY closure below 1.2360 (the lower limit of the congestion zone) directly exposed price levels around 1.2250.


The EUR/USD pair continued to move lower after breaking below major DEMAND LEVEL at 1.2250 exposing price levels of 1.2120 and 1.2000 .


Fundamentally, the euro sentiment remained negative upon the prospect of more actions from the ECB in the coming weeks regarding QE.


Note that the market is currently pushing further below price level of 1.2000 (prominent psychological SUPPORT, also corresponding to the lower limit of the movement channel).


Price action should be watched carefully at the market closure for further decisions.


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As anticipated previously, an obvious 4H break below 1.2150 exposed the full-range breakout projection target around 1.2000.


Following such a strong bearish swing, the market should be looking for a considerable DEMAND level to pause around.


The lower limit of the current movement channel has been breached after the bearish GAP that occurred at the market opening this Monday.


Further price action should be considered as the current price levels haven't been visited since May 2010.


Trade recommendations :


Risky traders should now be looking for LONG positions around these historical low prices after such quick bearish decline off 1.2550.


However, conservative traders should be looking for SHORT positions. Low-risk SELL entries can be taken around price level 1.2250 where a recent SUPPLY zone is located.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com