Daily analysis of USD/JPY for July 28, 2017

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Overview

The USD/JPY pair tested the first key resistance at 111.65 and bounced bearishly from there, as the EMA50 met the mentioned resistance to add more strength to it, which keeps the bearish trend scenario valid until now, and the price needs to break 110.98 level to confirm heading towards 110.15 as a next main target. Stochastic provides a negative overlapping signal that supports the expected decline, while the bearish bias will remain suggested unless breaching 111.65 followed by 112.32 levels and holding above them. The expected trading range for today is between 110.00 support and 111.65 resistance.

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for July 28, 2017

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Overview

The GBP/JPY pair repeated providing negative close below the main resistance level at 147.60 level, to confirm the domination of the bearish bias domination, by the above image, we notice stochastic attempt to form new bearish wave that opens the way towards gathering new negative momentum, which supports the attempt of renewing the negative attack, that targets 14.30 level as a first negative station, then wait until reaching the critical support at 141.40. Note that surpassing 144.60 level for today is important to confirm surpassing the sideways fluctuation, to open the way towards resuming the negative attack and achieving the suggested targets. The expected trading range for today is between 147.00 and 143.50.

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Daily analysis of Gold for July 28, 2017

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Overview

The Gold price is retesting the previously breached neckline of the inverted head and shoulders' pattern that appears on the above chart keeping its stability above it, to keep the positive effect of this pattern active, and the price gets positive support by the EMA50, while stochastic gets rid of its negative momentum gradually. Therefore, these factors encourage us to keep our bullish overview in the upcoming sessions, waiting to head towards 1295.37 that represents our next main target, noting that the continuation of the bullish trend depends on holding above 1254.56 and 1244.00 levels. The expected trading range for today is between 1250.00 support and 1280.00 resistance.

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Daily analysis of Silver for July 28, 2017

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Overview

Silver price fluctuates around the support base formed above 16.56 level after breaching it previously and keeps its stability above it until now, which keeps the bullish trend scenario valid until now, waiting to head towards 17.43 that represents the next main target. Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bullish trend for today unless breaking 16.56 level and holding below it, reminding you that breaking this level will push the price to test 15.49 areas again. The expected trading range for today is between 16.45 support and 16.80 resistance.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for July 28, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target is projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

The EUR/USD pair remains trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until a breakout in either direction is confirmed.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allows a quick bullish advance towards 1.1710, 1.1850 and 1.2000.

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend reversed when the Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, a temporary bullish breakout is being witnessed on the chart.

The nearest supply level to meet the pair is located around 1.1720 (August 2015 Highest level) where price action should be watched for a bearish pullback.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.1410-1.1515 stands as a prominent DEMAND zone to be watched if a bearish pullback occurs.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 28, 2017

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USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. The pair is trading below its declining 20-period and 50-period moving averages, which play resistance roles and maintain the upside bias. The relative strength index is mixed with a bearish bias. The upward potential is likely to be limited by the resistance at 111.40.

Therefore, as long as this key level is not surpassed, look for a further decline to 110.80 and even to 110.50 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a long position is recommended above 111.40 with a target at 111.70.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 111.40, Take Profit: 111.95

Resistance levels: 110.80, 110.0, and 109.45 Support Levels: 111.70, 111.95, 112.35

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for July 28, 2017

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Daily Outlook

The NZD/USD pair has been trending up within the depicted bullish channel since January 2016.

In November 2016, early signs of bullish weakness were expressed on the chart when the pair failed to record a new high above 0.7400.

A bearish breakout of the lower limit of the channel took place in December 2016.

In February 2017, the depicted short-term downtrend was initiated in the depicted supply zone (0.7310-0.7380).

However, a recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place in May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

The price zone of 0.7150-0.7230 (SUPPLY ZONE in confluence with 61.8% Fibonacci level) stood as a temporary resistance zone until a bullish breakout was expressed above 0.7230.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards the next supply zone around 0.7310-0.7380 which is temporarily breached to the upside.

Now the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 turns to be a newly-established demand-zone to be watched for possible bullish rejection and a possible BUY entry if any bearish pullback occurs.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for July 28, 2017

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Our targets which we predicted in Yesterday's analysis has been hit. The pair broke above its key resistance at 0.9595 (the high of July 26), which is coming to the key support now. Both rising 20-period and 50-period moving averages are maintaining upside bias.

The U.S. dollar pared losses seen in Asian trading hours and strengthened further against other major currencies, lifted by upbeat U.S. economic data. The Commerce Department reported that durable goods orders grew 6.5% on month in June, the quickest pace in nearly three years and exceeding +3.8% expected. The ICE Dollar Index sank to a 13-month intraday low of 93.15 before closing at 93.86, up 0.2% on the day.

To conclude, as long as 0.9620 is not broken, a further rise to 0.9745 and even to 0.9800 seems more likely to occur.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point; the present price above pivot point indicates the bullish position and below pivot points indicates the short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 0.9620, Take Profit: 0.9745

Resistance levels: 0.9745, 0.9800, and 0.9835

Support levels: 0.9560, 0.9530, and 0.9475

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for July 28, 2017

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. The pair broke above its 20-period and 50-period moving averages and accelerated on the upside. The relative strength index is bullish above its neutrality level at 50 and lacks downward momentum. The rising 20-period moving average crossed above the 50-period one, which is positive and is playing a support role.

As long as 145.20 holds on the downside, look for a further upside towards 146.25 and even 146.60 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction as predicted, a short position is recommended below 145.20 with the target at 144.60.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 145.20, Take Profit: 146.25.

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above pivot point indicates the bullish position and when it is below pivot points, it indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 146.25, 146.60, and 147.45

Support levels: 144.60, 144.35, and 143.75.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 28, 2017

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NZD/USD is under pressure. Although the pair broke above the 20-period moving average, it is still trading below its declining 50-period moving averages, which plays a resistance role. The relative strength index is below its neutrality level at 50. Even though a continuation of the technical rebound cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Hence, below 0.7520, expect a new drop to 0.7410 and even to 0.7370 in extension.

Strategy: SELL Stop Loss: 0.7410 Take Profit: 0.7370

Chart Explanation:

The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which indicates the bullish position. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate the short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7560, 0.7590, and 0.7630

Support levels: 0.7410, 0.7370, and 0.7335

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EUR/CHF analysis for July 28, 2017

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Recently, the EUR/CHF has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.1379. According to the 15M time frame, I found broken intraday flat base, which is a sign that selling looks risky. The short-term trend is bullish and buyers are in control. Stochastic oscillator showing an oversold condition, which is a sign that buying looks good at this level. Watch for potential buying opportunities. The intraday target is set at the price of 1.1425.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1313

R2: 1.1360

R3: 1.1444

Support levels:

S1: 1.1180

S2: 1.1100

S3: 1.1050

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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GBP/USD analysis for July 28, 2017

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Recently, the GBP/USD has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.3051. According to the 30m time frame, I found a potential bearish flag in creation. There is also a hidden bearish divergence on the moving average oscilator. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.3053 and 1.3010.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3135

R2: 1.3200

R3: 1.3240

Support levels:

S1: 1.3030

S2: 1.2990

S3: 1.2920

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/CHF for July 28, 2017

USD/CHF has been quite impulsively bullish recently as the CHF had a series of bad economic reports in comparison to USD. After a long streak of bearish pressure in the pair currently, some bullish pressure is observed which is expected to be a good counter move to turn the pair around. Today CHF KOF Economic Barometer report was published with an increased figure at 106.8 from the previous figure of 105.8 which was expected to increase to 105.9. Despite the better than expected result in the economic report today CHF could have an impact over USD which signals severe weakness of CHF in the current scenario. On the USD side, today Advance GDP report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 2.5% from the previous value of 1.4%, Advance GDP Price Index is expected to decrease to 1.3% from the previous value of 1.9%, Employment Cost Index is expected to decrease to 0.6% from the previous value of 0.8% and Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment is expected to have a slight increase to 93.2 from the previous value of 93.1. Moreover, FOMC Member Kashkari is about to speak today about nation's key interest rates and future monetary policies which are expected to be hawkish in nature. To sum up, USD is currently quite stronger than CHF despite the unchanged interest rates discussed in FOMC meeting this week and mixed economic reports. As of the current scenario, USD is expected to be gain further over CHF in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price has been quite impulsively bullish after breaking above the 0.9950 after the false bearish break below the level. As the price has also broken above the dynamic level of 20 EMA the price is expected to be bullish with a target towards 0.9800 resistance level in the coming days.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for July 28, 2017

EUR/USD: This is a bull market – as shown by the Bullish Confirmation Pattern on it. The price is currently around the resistance line at 1.1700, which is almost being breached the upside. After that, the next target would be the resistance line at 1.1750.

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USD/CHF: Perpetual weakness in CHF has helped the USD/CHF to generate a clean bullish signal (most CHF pairs have also skyrocketed while the CHF/JPY plummeted). The price has gained about 250 pips this week, and it is slightly above the support level at 0.9700. The market would continue going upwards as long as CHF shows weakness. This is a classical example of when both the USD/CHF and EUR/USD go into a positive correlation; I.e, they both go upwards. The USD/CHF normally go into opposite directions. But this time around, the case is being influenced by exponential weakness in CHF.

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GBP/USD: Just like the EUR/USD, with which the Cable normally gets positively correlated, the bullishness on the market has held out so far. The distribution territory at 1.3150 was tested before the bearish retracement that is being experienced. It is expected that price would go upwards again to test that distribution territory, and possibly breach it to the upside.

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USD/JPY: Bears have tried to maintain the bearishness on this pair for this week. The EMA 11 is below the EMA 56, and the RSI period 14 is below the level 50. The demand level at 111.00 has been tested repeatedly and it may be breached to the downside anytime soon. Then another demand level at 110.50 would be aimed.

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EUR/JPY: This currency trading instrument has gone neither upwards nor downwards this week, although the major bias is bullish. There is a demand zone at 129.00 and there is a supply zone at 130.50. The market would need to move above the supply zone or below the demand zone, in order to invalidate the current bullish bias or corroborate it.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/CAD for July 28, 2017

EUR/CAD is currently residing inside a corrective volatile structure on the way to retest the 1.4730 level as resistance. EUR has been quite stronger due to positive economic reports published recently. Today EUR French Consumer Spending was published with a less deficit at -0.8% from the previous value of -0.9% which did not meet the expected result at -0.3%, French Prelim CPI was published with increased figure at -0.3% from previous value of 0.0% which was expected to increase more to -0.4%, Spanish Flash CPI was published with an unchanged value at 1.5% and Spanish Flash GDP was published as expected at 0.9% which previously was at 0.8%. Alongside these economic events, German Prelim CPI is yet to be published today which is expected to be unchanged at 0.2% and Italian 10-y Bond Auction report is also going to be published which previously was at 2.16|1.3. On the other hand, CAD GDP report is going to be published today which is expected to be unchanged at 0.2%.

To sum up, EUR is currently showing some gains over CAD today due to mixed economic reports which are found mostly in favor of EUR. On the other hand, CAD GDP report is a quite high impact report to increase the volatility in the market. If CAD shows better GDP report today further gain on the CAD side is expected in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view after the break below 1.4730 support level recently the price is now on the way to retest the level as resistance before continuing its bearish trend with a target towards 1.4290 support level. As the price is currently being held by the dynamic level 20 EMA as well the bearish pressure can be still observed in the market. A daily close below 1.4730 will ensure the further bearish pressure in this pair for the future.

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Global macro overview for 28/07/2017

Global macro overview for 28/07/2017:

The US Durable Goods Orders data has beat the market participants expectations. The June data of US Durable Good Orders surged to 6.5% from -0.1% a month ago, beating the expectations of 3.5%. The sub index of Durable Goods Orders Excluding Transport noted a slight 0.2% gain for the month compared with expectations of a 0.4% gain. The Underlying Orders were revised to show a 0.6% gain for May to give a year-on-year increase of 4.9%. The biggest increase was noted in Capital Goods Orders that rose 19.0% on the month, primarily due to a surge in aircraft orders. Non-defence capital goods orders, excluding aircraft, which is a key underlying indicator of capital spending fell 0.1% on the month, although there was a revised 0.9% gain in May which gave a 2.8% annual increase.

The data support the underlying Federal Reserve confidence in broader expansion in investments in the US. After the Wednesday FOMC statement, the market expectations regarding another rate hike in December 2017 has dipped below 40%, but currently, it jumped to 46%. Moreover, this might be the beginning of a more crucial change of mind among the market participants, despite the ongoing sell-off of US Dollar. Although the confirmation of the start of a reduction in the balance sheet total in September is a positive impulse for USD, fears of inflation will weigh on the expected path of rate hikes, thus exerting pressure on the yield curve and on the USD. The next data from the US job market in form of NFP Payroll are scheduled for release next Friday and if they beat the expectations, the odd of a more substantial US Dollar recovery will increase.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 timeframe. The market is trying to bounce from the severely oversold levels, but so far the important technical resistance at the level of 94.47 hasn't been violated yet. The momentum indicator stays below the fifty level as well, which indicates the market participants are still waiting for more data from the US economy.

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Global macro overview for 28/07/2017

Global macro overview for 28/07/2017:

The Japanese National CPI data were in line with expectations. The core inflation raised 0.4% as anticipated and the consumer price index (CPI) minus fresh food – a key proxy for core inflation – rose at an annualized 0.4% in June. The Tokyo CPI increased from 0.0% to 0.1% and Tokyo CPI excluding fresh food from 0.1% to 0.2%. With prices rising for the first time since 2015, it looks like the inflation has returned to the Japanese economy.

Earlier this month, the Bank of Japan has left the interest rate unchanged at the level of -0.1%. The interest rate has been kept unchanged since last September when officials shifted their focus from monetary stimulus to yield-curve targeting. In doing so, policymakers downgraded their inflation outlook for the sixth time, as the BOJ's optimistic 2% target remains elusive.The current situation indicates that the Bank of Japan has become rather lonely in its prolonged dovishness. The BoJ's inability to reduce its massive stimulus program or follow other major central banks in shifting to a tighter policy path can be mainly attributed to very soft inflation in Japan. This situation is not likely to end anytime soon, which underlines the growing policy divergence between the BoJ and most other major central banks.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 timeframe. After the failed rally attempt towards the level of 112.32, the market reversed and now is back around the 61%Fibo area at the level of 111.06. The momentum indicator stays below fifty level, so further down move is still anticipated.

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Technical analysis of USDX for July 28, 2017

The Dollar index remains inside the bearish channel and it shows signs of rejection at the upper channel boundary. A new low might be close by. The Dollar is way oversold with glaring bullish divergence signs. Dollar bears need to be very cautious.

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Blue lines - bearish channel

The Dollar index remains in a bearish trend. Price is trying to break above and out of the bearish channel. Resistance is at 94 and next at 94.30 by the cloud. As long as the price is below 94.90 trend is considered bearish.

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Green rectangle - long-term support

The weekly chart shows price just above the long-term support and the RSI (5) diverging. The trend remains bearish. The dollar is oversold in the short-term and a bounce is long overdue. Bears must be very cautious as a Dollar bounce could be very strong back towards 97.

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Burning forecast: US GDP at 13.30 London time

Burning forecast: US GDP at 13.30 BST

US GDP (change in %% APR). The forecast is + 2.6%. The previous value is + 1.4%.

The range of forecasts is +2.2 + 3.2%

GDP inflation (deflator). The forecast is + 1.2%. Prev + 1.9%.

Why is it important?

GDP is the main integral indicator of the state of the economy. GDP growth = economic growth. GDP decline = economic decline.

GDP takes into account everything in the economy: Production, demand, employment, etc.

What are we waiting for?

If the data comes out according to the forecast or stronger, the growth of the US market and the strengthening of the dollar. A complete reversal of the trend for the euro is possible and testing down the level of 1.1610 for EUR/USD.

Markets will look at the deflator. Falling prices hamper the Fed's rate hike and it's good for the market but a minus for the US dollar.

If the data comes out weak, the euro will go to 1.1785.

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Technical analysis of gold for July 28, 2017

The Gold price made a new higher high yesterday and remains in a bullish trend. The Gold price is breaking above the $1,250-60 resistance area and is heading towards the long-term resistance at $1,280-90.

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The Gold price is trading above both the tenkan- and kijun-sen. There are initial signs of a bearish divergence but the price continues to make higher highs and higher lows. Support is at $1,245. Resistance is at $1,275.

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Blue line - long-term support

Black line - long-term resistance

Long-term resistance trend line from the ATH is at $1,275-80. The Gold price has not managed to break it every time it tried since November 2015 when medium-term trend changed. A rejection at $1,275 will push the price back towards the weekly Kumo at $1,250-40. If a cloud is broken we should expect the Gold price to test the blue trend line. I remain long-term bullish.

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Trading plan for 07/28/2017

Trading plan for July 28, 2017

Overall picture: The trend against the dollar stopped. Markets are defined by direction.

On Thursday, important events took place on the market. Unexpectedly, the report on orders for durable goods in the US came very strong, much better than forecasts. The growth of total orders is + 16% to the previous year, but this is due to Boeing aircraft. Also, without transport strong + 6.8% to the previous year.

Important: Today, the report on US GDP for the 2nd quarter at 13.30 London time will be released and the market will now wait for a strong report. This can break the trend against the dollar for the euro and the pound finally. (The yen did not participate, and the franc yesterday turned sharply in favor of the dollar).

In the US market, a weak report of Amazon came and the technology sector has sharply gone down, pulling indices.

However, by the time of closure, the entire decline was almost completely redeemed.

Look at the charts USD/JPY, EUR/CHF and USD/CHF.

It was here yesterday that the strongest movements were going on. (Laugh with me over those grieving teachers who teach that the euro and the franc only go together and the euro/franc is a purely range asset).

There are suspicions that the EUR/USD day's decline is caused not only by reaching the upper border of the channel and the need for correction but because there was a sharp turn in the franc in favor of the dollar.

Yesterday, it is quite obvious that the dollar and the euro were heavily bought for the francs.

So today, we are waiting for data on the United States at 13.30 London time.

For EUR/USD:

Down option: Sell at breakdown of 1.1610. Purchases: We hold positions from 1.1670 and stop at 1.1625.

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Trading plan for 28/07/2017

Trading plan for 28/07/2017:

On Friday 28th of July, the event calendar is busy with important economic releases. At the beginning of the London session, France will present the Preliminary GDP, Consumer Spending, and Consumer Price Index data. After that Spain will post its GDP and Consumer Price Index data as well. Switzerland will post the KOF Economic Barometer data and Germany will unveil the Preliminary CPI. However, the key event of the day is Gross Domestic Product data release from Canada and Preliminary GDP data from the US.

EUR/USD analysis for 28/07/2017:

There is plenty of data that might influence the rate of EUR/USD today. During the London session it will be the CPI and GDP data from France, Spain, and Germany and during the US session, it definitely will be the Preliminary GDP data from the US. The median forecast for the US GDP growth during the second quarter is 2.5% (the seasonally adjusted annualized rate). The growth in the first quarter was very weak at only 1.4%, but in recent years this is quite common and weakness during the first quarter is widely believed to be transitory. The average trend growth of the past couple of years has been just a little bit above 2%. So, to continue the increase in the second half of 2017 (and for the FED to continue hiking rates), the consumer fundamentals need to improve further. Business surveys (such as the ISM series) suggest a strong rebound while healthy retail sales, firm jobs growth and durable goods orders also support this view.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 timeframe. If the data beats the expectations, then there is a good chance for a further deterioration in price, possibly below the technical support at the level of 1.1654. Currently, the price is trading just below the important old technical resistance at the level of 1.1714, so any failure to break out higher would support the possible pullback towards the mentioned level. On the other hand, the up trend is still strong and in a case of a miss, the new highs are expected.

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Market Snapshot: Nasdaq to start a correction?

After disappointing results, the QQQ index (Nasdaq ETF) has filled the gap up and was going down until it bounced from the technical support at the level of 142.27. The interesting daily candle might suggest the index has started a corrective cycle that might accelerate if more of the US stocks will post more disappointing financial results. The next technical support is seen at the level of 135.78, but there is still unfilled gap above, between the levels of 139.12 - 139.88.

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Market Snapshot: USD/CHF test the trend line

The price of USD/CHF has tested the old trend line from below at the daily timeframe and the bull camp has managed to make a marginal new high at the level of 0.9720. This might be the beginning of more substantial rebound in this pair as the market conditions are severely oversold.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for July 28, 2017

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Wave summary:

We still don't have much to add here. We continue to look for evidence that the red wave ii/ has completed and the red wave iii/ higher to 1.6236 is ready to unfold. The first good indication that the red wave ii/ have completed and the red wave iii/ is developing will be a break above minor resistance at 1.5744 while a break above resistance at 1.5899 will confirm the red wave iii/ is unfolding.

R3: 1.5899

R2: 1.5828

R1: 1.5744

Pivot: 1.5650

S1: 1.5567

S2: 1.5492

S3: 1.5419

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.5510 with stop placed at 1.5410. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy upon a break above 1.5744 and use the same stop at 1.5410.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 28, 2017

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Wave summary:

We continue to look for the final rally towards the ideal target at 133.34. A break above the resistance at 130.77 will confirm that the final leg higher is developing. Once the 133.34 target has been tested, we should start looking for a reversal lower.

That said, a break below minor support at 128.90 will be a warning that the top might be in place already for more downside pressure.

R3: 130.77

R2: 130.59

R1: 130.04

Pivot: 129.85

S1: 129.53

S2: 129.22

S3: 128.90

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 129.75 with stop placed at 129.15. Take profit will be placed at 133.20.

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Fundamental analysis of AUD/JPY for July 28, 2017

AUD/JPY has been very bullish after the break above the resistance level of 87.50. After some downbeat economic reports and the RBA statement, AUD is currently getting weaker against JPY. Today Australia's PPI report was published with an unchanged value at 0.5% which was expected to increase to 0.6% which did not quite help the currency to gain some momentum against JPY. On the other hand, Japan posted the Household Spending report with a positive figure at 2.3% from the previous negative figure at -0.1% which was expected to be at 0.6%. Besides, the National Core CPI was unchanged at 0.4% as expected while the Tokyo Core CPI showed some growth to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.0%. The index was expected to be at 0.1%. Furthermore, the Unemployment Rate decreased to 2.8% from previous value of 3.1% which was expected to be at 3.0%. The Retail Sales report was published with an unchanged value of 2.1% which was expected to rise to 2.3%. Along with all these economic reports, the BOJ Summary of Opinions event was held where the outcome was quite hawkish for JPY which is expected to help JPY to gain some momentum in the coming days. To sum up, as of the recent economic reports, AUD is currently expected to show some more weakness in the coming days before bouncing off again with an impulsive bullish momentum against JPY.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently expected to show some bearish movement towards 87.50 support level before bouncing off again with a bullish move towards 90.50 resistance level. The price is currently residing in a corrective structure and it is quite volatile as well which signals some retracement before launching upward again. As the price remains above 87.50 with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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The dollar turned on the mind

The single European currency has had a commotion after investors had to reconsider the outcome of the FOMC meeting in July and hastily started to form long positions. Indeed, there is nothing special from the commentaries of the Fed. The inflation rate was maintained below the target of 2%, same goes for the accomplishment in the medium term and maintained the moderate optimism of the U.S. economy. By the time of the announcement of the results of the Open Market Committee, the tension was so high that the slightest changes could have a big impact to the EUR / USD pair to move aside. Now it is time to be skeptical.

What was the reason for the USD index to collapse at the fastest pace since 2008 and reach the level of the 200-week moving average? The FOMC statement practically did not change, moreover, it contained "hawkish" notes: the Central Bank said it was ready to begin normalizing the 4.5 trillion balance soon enough. Most likely, the announcement of the anti-QE process will follow in September. Henceforth, reinvestment will slowly cease and a large player will leave the debt market that could put the yields to go north along with the U.S. dollar.

Dynamics of the dollar index

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Source: Bloomberg.

Generally, a clear breakout in the 200-week average is believed to be a signal of a change in trend. This has not happened yet, although the dollar is at bay. Could it move out of that position? It is possible, that is if the plans of the Federal Reserve are gradually implemented. To begin with, it is necessary that GDP in the second quarter show an increase of 2.5% q / q or higher, which will convince investors of the validity of Janet Yellen's statements about the temporary nature of economic slowdown and inflation.

In the meantime, we should closely monitor the ability of the bulls to EUR / USD to gain a foothold above the historical highest level of 1.1714.

In the next few days, it is expected for the US GDP data to be released as well as the eurozone for the second quarter. The news of a political nature from the States is also anticipated. If the scandal around Trump settles, and the Senate accepts amendments to the health care laws, the investors' interest in the dollar will return.

Technically, if the bulls of the EUR / USD pair failed to keep the quotes above the resistance at 1.1723 (38.2% of the last long-term downward wave) indicates their weakness.

EUR / USD, daily chart

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 25, 2017

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released, such as Belgian NBB Business Climate, German Ifo Business Climate, and German Import Prices m/m. The US will release its Richmond Manufacturing Index, CB Consumer Confidence, S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y, and HPI m/m. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

Today's technical levels :

Breakout buy level: 1.1694.

Strong resistance:1.1687.

Original resistance: 1.1676.

Inner sell area: 1.1665.

Target inner area: 1.1637.

Inner buy area: 1.1609.

Original support: 1.1598.

Strong support: 1.1587.

Breakout sell level: 1.1580.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 28, 2017

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as Italian 10-y Bond Auction, Spanish Flash GDP q/q, Spanish Flash CPI y/y, French Prelim CPI m/m, French Consumer Spending m/m, German Prelim CPI m/m, and French Flash GDP q/q. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, Employment Cost Index q/q, Advance GDP Price Index q/q, and Advance GDP q/q, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1745.

Strong Resistance:1.1738.

Original Resistance: 1.1727.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1716.

Target Inner Area: 1.1688.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1660.

Original Support: 1.1649.

Strong Support: 1.1638.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1631.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 28, 2017

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In Asia, Japan will release the Retail Sales y/y, BOJ Summary of Opinions, Unemployment Rate, Tokyo Core CPI y/y, National Core CPI y/y, and Household Spending y/y data, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, Employment Cost Index q/q, Advance GDP Price Index q/q, and Advance GDP q/q. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 111.61.

Resistance. 2: 111.39.

Resistance. 1: 111.17.

Support. 1: 110.91.

Support. 2: 110.69.

Support. 3: 110.47.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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EUR/USD dropping perfectly towards profit target, remain bearish for a further drop

Price dropped perfectly from our selling area yesterday. We remain bearish looking to sell below 1.1715 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) for a further push down to at least 1.1617 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support). It is important to take note of the ascending support line that is serving as intermediate support to price.

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing a good downside potential for price to make a further drop.

Sell below 1.1715. Stop loss at 1.1750. Take profit at 1.1617.

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AUD/USD right on major support, prepare to buy for a bounce

Price is now testing a major support at 0.7969 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) and we expect to see a bounce above this level for a rise at least to 0.8066 resistance (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance).

RSI (34) is seeing a pullback support to our descending resistance-turned-support line and we expect it to make a bounce off from here similarly to the bounce we are expecting on price.

Buy above 0.7969. Stop loss at 0.7911. Take profit at 0.8066.

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NZD/USD: prepare to buy on major support

Price is approaching major support at 0.7461 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support, Fibonacci extension) and we expect to see a nice bounce above this level for price to reach at least 0.7549 resistance (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance).

Stochastic (21,5,3) is seeing major support above 5.6% from where we expect a bounce.

Buy above 0.7461. Stop loss at 0.7401. Take profit at 0.7549.

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EUR/JPY profit target reached perfectly, prepare to buy for a bounce

Price has dropped from our selling area perfectly and reached our profit target. We prepare to buy above the major support at 129.54 (Fibonacci retracement horizontal overlap support, Fibonacci extension) for a rise to at least 130.50 resistance (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance).

Stochastic (21,5,3) is seeing strong support above 7.5% from where we expect a bounce that corresponds to the bounce we're expecting on price.

Buy above 129.54. Stop loss at 129.20. Take profit at 130.50.

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AUD/JPY remains bearish for a further drop

Price has broken a really nice ascending support-turned-resistance line triggering a bearish move. We prepare to sell below 88.83 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) for a push down to at least 87.65 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major resistance below 95% and we also see a bearish exit signalling that a change in momentum has occurred.

Correlation analysis: we are seeing JPY strength with AUD/JPY and USD/JPY to drop.

Sell below 88.83. Stop loss at 89.35. Take profit at 87.65.

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USD/JPY dropping nicely from resistance, remains bearish

We remain bearish and continue to sell below 111.56 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance) for a push down to at least 110.29 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal pullback support, Elliott wave theory).

Stochastic (21,5,3) is reacting nicely off our intermediate resistance at 68% from where we expect a further drop.

Correlation analysis: we are seeing JPY strength with AUDJPY and USDJPY to drop.

Sell below 111.56. Stop loss at 112.27. Take profit at 110.29.

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Trading plan for EURUSD and GBPUSD for July 28, 2017

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Technical outlook:

A bigger picture has been presented here after all the uncertain moves and the extended corrective rally in EUR/USD since last 7 months. We like the idea of riding the trend and hence it took time to produce the opportunity here. The EUR/USD is looking to complete or have already completed its corrective rally as Wave C (labelled above) or Wave 3 move within the 5 waves rally that began from January 03, 2017. The minimum implication is a dip towards Wave 4, which should terminate around 1.1200 region or a bearish trend reversal, which would take prices lower towards parity. In either case that should unfold, a bearish move is on cards from here on. A break below the immediate support at 1.1610 levels should confirm the same and we should see acceleration from there on.

Trading plan:

Please remain short from here, stop at 1.0790/95, target 1.1200/50. Time horizon is at least for next few weeks.

GBP/USD chart setups:

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Technical outlook:

The GB/PUSD bigger picture also reveals that the pair has come out nicely since September 2016 through the present day to complete a corrective structure A-B-C, that included a triangle in between and might be producing an ending diagonal now. A break below 1.2930 levels from here would confirm that the diagonal structure has worked out well. Looking at the daily chart pattern, the pair seems to have formed a top at 1.3150/55 levels yesterday and should be ready to resume lower. The wave structure also reveals that wave (4) at a larger degree might have formed and prices should drop towards wave (5) which is expected to terminate below 1.2000. As an alternate though, the pair may choose to test its diagonal resistance line at 1.3170 levels before reversing again. Overall, please look lower from here.

Trading plan:

Please remain short from here, stop at 1.3250, target below 1.2000 several weeks from here.

Fundamental outlook:

Please watch out for EUR German Consumer Price Index, USD GDP Annualized between 08:00 am to 08:30 am EST today.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for July 28, 2017

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair broke resistance which turned to a strong support at the level of 0.9579 yesterday. The level of 0.9579 coincides with 38.2% of Fibonacci, which is expected to act as a major support today. Since the trend is above the 38.2% Fibonacci level, the market is still in an uptrend. From this point, the USD/CHF pair is continuing in a bullish trend from the new support of 0.9575. Currently, the price is in a bullish channel. According to the previous events, we expect the USD/CHF pair to move between 0.9579 and 0.9728. In the H4 chart, resistance is seen at the levels of 0.9666 and 0.9728. Also, it should be noticed that the level of 0.9666 represents the daily pivot point. Therefore, a strong support will be formed at the level of 0.9575 providing a clear signal to buy with the targets seen at 0.9666. If the trend breaks the support at 0.9666 (the first resistance), the pair will move upwards continuing the development of the bullish trend to the level 0.9728 in order to test the daily resistance 2. However, the stop loss is to be placed below the level of 0.952.
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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 28, 2017

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 0.7490. Yesterday, the pair rose from the level of 0.7490 to a top around 0.7510. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.7557 followed by 0.7600, while the daily support 1 is seen at 0.7444 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement). According to the previous events, the NZD/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 0.7490 and 0.7600; so we expect a range of 110 pips. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out the first resistance level at 0.7557, we could see the pair climbing towards the double top (0.7600) to test it. Therefore, buy above the level of 0.7490 with the first target at 0.7557 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 0.7600. Also, it should be noted that the level of 0.7600 is a good place to take profit because it will form a new double top. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.7444, a further decline to 0.7375 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.
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Daily analysis of USDX for July 28, 2017

The index recovered from the losses following the Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged at its July's meeting. The resistance zone of 94.09 is still capping further gains in USDX and if the index manages to break above that level, it can rally to 94.85 in a first degree. The MACD indicator is still in the positive territory, but is entering the overbought territory.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 94.09 / 94.88

H1 chart's support levels: 93.71 / 93.29

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick. The support level is at 93.71, take profit is at 93.29 and stop loss is at 94.12.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for July 28, 2017

The pair suffered some losses during Thursday's session post-Fed and it seems that the 200 SMA in the H1 chart could act as a dynamic support. The overall bullish bias remains intact as long as the GBP/USD pair holds Wednesday's lows. However, if the support level of 1.3034 gives up, then we might expect a decline towards 1.2968.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3106 / 1.3148

H1 chart's support levels: 1.3034 / 1.2968

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick. The resistance level is at 1.3106, take profit is at 1.3148 and stop loss is at 1.3062.

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