Technical analysis of AUD/USD for September 18, 2014

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Overview :



  • The AUD/USD pair had fallen from the level of 0.9111, and it was extended further to as low as 0.9015 this week. So, new resistances have placed at the levels of 0.9111 and 0.9015. Furthermore, the price had been below 38.2% of Fibonacci retracement levels in the daily chart. Additionally, it should be noted that the price had formed a strong resistance at the 0.9015 level. Moreover, this strong level has still been trapped between 38.2% of Fibonacci retracement levels and 23.6% in the daily chart. As it is known, history usually repeats itself at certain level. Consequently, it will be reasonable to use historic rates to determine future prices, hence it is probably that the market will show the bearish signs again in order to indicate a bearish opportunity at the level of 0.9015 with targets towards the strongest support around the 0.8933 level. Equally important, the market will form a range between two important levels 0.8990 and 0.8933, thus the range will be around 57 pips today.



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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for September 18, 2014

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Overview :



  • As expected, the USD/CAD pair rebounded at the level of 1.0886 and it showed signs of strength following the level of 1.0886. In H1 chart, the pair has already formed a strong support at the level of 1.0886 which coincides with the ratio of 23.6% Fibonacci retracement levels. Additionally, the resistance has broken and turned to support at the same key level (1.0886) and the price set above the support since 8th of September 2014. Equally important, look forward to that the USD/CAD pair will be trapped between 1.0926 and 1.1010. For that reason, the USD/CAD pair started showing the signs of bullish market, so the market indicates the bullish opportunity at the level of 1.0886 with the first target of 1.1000, and continues towards the level of 1.1040 again (1.1038 is representing the ratio of 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels). Otherwise, the stop loss should always be in account, hence it will wise to set your stop loss at the 1.0810 price. Also, it should be noted that the double bottom had already be placed at the point of 1.0820.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 18 - 2014

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Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 1.5949


R2: 1.5922


R1: 1.5896


Current spot: 1.5880


S1: 1.5865


S2: 1.5844


S3: 1.5818


Technical summary:


We are still looking for confirmation, that the underlying uptrend has been resumed for a rally towards 1.6203 and the way higher to 1.6450 as the next major upside targets. In the short term, we will ideally see support at 1.5818 to protect the downside for the break above 1.5949 confirming the resumption of the uptrend. However, a break below 1.5818 will call for a final decline in the correction from the 1.5949 high, to just below 1.5772 to end the correction.


Trading recommendation:


We are long in EUR from 1.5550 and will keep our stop at 1.5750. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy close to 1.5818 with the same stop at 1.5750.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 18 - 2014

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Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 140.37


R2: 140.20


140.05


Current spot: 140.00


S1: 139.84


S2: 139.73


S3: 139.61


Technical summary:


There was no time for a deeper red wave ii correction, than to 138.53 and the uptrend has resumed for a rally to important resistance at 143.79. It will be resistance at 143.79 which determines, whether a new long-term rally is developing or the correction from 145.69 will become more complex. We are trading this cross as if the correction from 145.69 is over and a new impulsive rally is developing. A clear break above 143.79 will call for a rally towards at least 167.09 and likely even higher to 186.63.


Trading recommendation:


We are long in EUR from 135.95 and will move stop higher to 138.50. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy near 139.61 with the same stop at 138.50.


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#USDX Technical analysis for September 18, 2014

The Dollar index gave a buy signal yesterday when it broke above the sideways triangle pattern we noted in our previous analysis. Our short-term target of 84.75 has been achieved and price got rejected at the resistance level.


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The Dollar index made a high near 84.85 and is pulling back now to back test the break out area. Support is found at 84.25-84.30 area. The ichimoku cloud is below price and provides important short-term support. The ichimoku cloud indicators continue to point higher. After the pullback, I expect the Dollar index to continue higher towards 85. Critical support at 83.85 should hold for the bullish scenario to come true.


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Red line = resistance


The Dollar index in the daily chart has broken the bullish flag upwards as expected towards our target. The daily chart remains fully bullish. Daily support is found at 84.30 and at 83.15. We remain bullish favoring a move towards 85 as long as price is above 83.85.


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Gold Technical analysis for September 18, 2014

Gold price has broken to new lows yesterday as support at $1,230 was broken. Gold price moved below $1,220 as the trend remains bearish as I have been pointing out in the previous analysis. The intermediate-term target is $1,200-$1,180. The longer-term target is $1,000.


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Red line = resistance


Blue line = support


Green line = channel


Gold price remains inside the green downward sloping channel. It has broken the short-term support at $1,230 and is making a lower low. The trend remains bearish. The ichimoku cloud indicators as yeterday remain bearish pointing lower towards $1,200.


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Red line = resistance


The short-term chart remains bearish. However, we could see a back test of the previous support at $1,230. If Gold price breaks above $1,225 it could push towards $1,230 for the back test of the broken support. The trend is however still bearish as long as price is below $1,243.


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Technical Analysis of USD/CHF for September 18, 2014

The pair successfully breached the 200WEma and is trading above that. On the upper side, it has resistance at 0.9456 above this, it can fly up to 0.9534. On the down side, it has support at 0.93. If a weekly close is above 0.94, we can expect a short-term rally. This is a danger zone trading at 200DEma. In the weekly chart, the pair was rejected multiple times to close above the level of 200WEma. We are further bullish only if the pair closes above 0.94 on a weekly basis. If not, we can expect some correction next week.


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Intraday traders can buy only above 0.9456. The prices are closed and the pair is trading above the key hourly moving averages. The pair has support at 0.9380 and 0.9350. Safe sell will be possible below 0.9350, buy only above 0.9435, safe buy above 0.9456


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Positional recommendation on USD/CAD for Septwmber 18, 2014

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The pair managed to close above 20Wsma on a closing basis, but has made a double top this week at the 1.11 levels. The pair recovered half of its losses. Currently, the pair is trading at the 1.1014 level. Today, the pair opened with a bullish note trading higher. The pair has made strong opening today, so it opened above the previous close. The pair breached a one-month trend line. A daily close above the upper end of the triangle provides 100-200 (1.1150-1.12) pips in the near term with strong resistance 1.11 levels.


Support 1.0970 1.0934 1.0927


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for September 18, 2014

When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as German PPI m/m, Current Account. The US will release the economic data too such as the CB Leading Index m/m, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.3021.

Strong Resistance:1.3014.

Original Resistance: 1.3001.

Inner Sell Area: 1.2988.

Target Inner Area: 1.2958.

Inner Buy Area: 1.2928.

Original Support: 1.2915.

Strong Support: 1.2902.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.2895.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for September 18, 2014

In Asia, Japan will release the All Industries Activity m/m, and the US will release some economic data such as CB Leading Index m/m. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low volatility during the day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 109.05.

Resistance. 2: 108.84.

Resistance. 1: 108.63.

Support. 1: 108.36.

Support. 2: 108.15.

Support. 3: 107.94 Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Intraday trading recommendations for GBP/USD for September 18, 2014

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Today traders focus on the Scottish referendum, effecting demand pressure on the Pound. GBP/USD has been facing strong resistance at the descending trend line. In the daily charts, the pair was rejected at 20Dsma during previous days and closed below 1.6280 representing undertone of bearishness. The cable has support at 1.6230, below this, 1.62, 1.6180 and 1.6160 levels. We can see another fall below 1.6160 for a downside target at 1.6052 and 1.60. A weekly close below 1.60 underpins the pair to fall another 200-300 pips in the ST. For the near term, a daily close above 1.6385 favors selling on an up move.


Resistance 1.6385 1.6440 1.6585


Support 1.62 1.6050 1.60


A weekly close below 1.60 ST - noise in the charts for 1.5850 and 1.57- Pending


A daily close above 1.64 - Some strength will regain for the near term.


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For an intraday session, the cable is trading above 12ema and 35DEMA levels. The pair has support at 1.6240 and resistance, at 1.6280. A breakout either side will give room for intraday trading. On the down side, if it hits 1.6240 it can fall to 1.62 and 1.6160 levels. On the upper side, above 1.6280 it can fly up to 1.6312, 1.6358 and 1.6380.


Sell below 1.6240


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Daily analysis of USDX for September 18, 2014

Daily chart: The USDX has made a successful breakout at the resistance level of 89.29, after it formed a higher high pattern. Now, it is very likely that the USDX will rise to the level of 85.18 in the medium term. However, the USDX could begin to perform corrective movements in this chart. The MACD indicator is in overbought zone.


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H4 chart: The USDX has consolidated its position above the level of 84.52 and now, the USDX is trying to climb up to the resistance level of 85.06. If the USDX manages to make a breakout at that level, it would be expected to rise to the level of 85.85, where a bullish trend line is located. The MACD indicator is in positive territory.


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H1 chart: The USDX has had a bullish momentum above the 200-day moving average, so now, the USDX is forming a higher high pattern above the support level of 84.60. If the USDX manages to make a breakout at the resistance level of 84.81, it is expected to that rise to the level of 85.05. The MACD indicator is entering overbought area.


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Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 84.81, take profit is at 85.05, and stop loss is at 84.60.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for September 18, 2014

Daily chart: The pair tried to make a breakout at the resistance level of 1.6326, but the GBP/USD encountered strong resistance at that level. Now, the GBP/USD is trying to perform a correcitve movement to the 200-day moving average on this chart. In addition, this pair has formed a fractal near the support level of 1.6146. The MACD indicator is in positive territory.


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H4 chart: The GBP/USD encountered strong resistance at the level of 1.6350 and now, this pair is trying to make a breakout at the support level of 1.6247. If the GBPUSD consolidates below that level, it would be expected to fall to the support level of 1.6051, which would be a bearish consolidation. The MACD indicator is in positive territory.


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H1 chart: The GBPUSD has encountered resistance at the level of 1.6338, where this pair has formed a fractal. Now, the GBP/USD is trying to form a lower low pattern below the moving average of 200. If the GBP/USD manages to make a breakout at the support level of 1.6252, it's expected to fall to the level of 1.6216. The MACD indicator remains in negative territory.


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Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.6252, take profit is at 1.6216, and stop loss is at 1.6289.


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Technical analysis of Gold for September 18, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Gold printed yet another low at $1,215.00 levels yesterday before pulling back towards $1,220.00 levels at close. Currently trading around $1,223.00 levels, the metal remains vulnerable to bears but surely the bottom is near. The metal could either bounce off current levels or after a final push below $1,185.00 levels, where a long term support trend line seems to be passing through (not seen here). It is recommended to await for further signal confirmation before entering long positions here. Aggressive traders could start building up small quantity long positions at current levels, leaving room till $1,180.00 levels on the lower side. Support is at $1,180.00/82.00 while resistance is seen at $1,240.00/42.00 immediately.


Trading recommendations:


Remain flat for now. Looking to go long.


Good luck!


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Intraday trading recommendations for Gold for September 18, 2014

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The metal drifted to $1,217 in Asia's session. On the down side, it has support at $1,215 and $1,210. Below $1,210, another steep fall will trigger towards $1,200 and $1,185 levels. The hourly and daily momentum oscillators are indicating an extreme oversold position. We expect some pullback will be on the screen for an hourly and intraday basis. The metal has strong resistance at $1,242 and $1,259.50 levels. For the NT, until the metal closes below $1,259.50, sell on an up move. The bulls will regain the strength only above $1,260 on a closing basis.


Support $1,215 $1,185 $1,150


Resistance $1,242 $1,260 $1,285


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For an intraday session, the metal is trading at $1,217. The prices are trading below the 12EMA and 35DEMA. The metal is facing strong resistance between $1,225-$1,227 (35DEMA), above these, $1,236 will act as a strong hurdle during an intraday session. Until the h4 candle closes above $1,236, sell on an up move.


Fresh selling is only below $1,215, buy above $1,227 for targets at $1,233, $1,236 and $1,240.


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for Sep 17, 2014

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Fundamental Overview:


USD/CHF is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias before FOMC decision. It is weighed by the broadly softer USD undertone; franc demand on buoyant CHF/JPY cross and on soft EUR/CHF cross. But USD/CHF losses tempered by dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy.It is dented by broadly weaker USD undertone (ICE spot dollar index last 84.09 versus 84.25 early Tuesday and jitters about the Scottish independence vote on Thursday. Markets await 1800 GMT Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and participants are watching out for subtle adjustments in the way the Fed describes its outlook on policy that could signal earlier hikes to the Fed's key policy rate than the widely-expected mid-2015.


Technical Comments:
The daily chart is mixed as MACD is bullish, but stochastics is bearish at the overbought zone.


Trading recommendations:


The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9375 and the second target at 0.94. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9310. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.9290. The pivot point is at 0.9325.


Resistance levels:

0.9375

0.94

0.9430



Support levels:


0.9310

0.9290

0.9250


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for Sep 17, 2014

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Fundamental Overview:


NZD/USD is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias before FOMC decision. Market participants are watching out for subtle adjustments in the way the Fed describes its outlook on policy that could signal earlier hikes to the Fed's key policy rate than the widely-expected mid-2015. It is supported by the broadly softer USD undertone, the positive investor risk sentiment and Fonterra's GDT Price Index unchanged at latest Global DairyTrade auction held overnight. But the NZD sentiment are dented by the wider-than-expected New Zealand 2Q current account deficit of NZD1.1 billion (versus forecast NZD0.95 billion).


Technical Comment:
The daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish, 5 and 15-day moving averages are falling, but stochastics is turned bullish at the oversold zone, bullish parabolic stop-and-reverse signal hit on Tuesday.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8230 and the second target at 0.8265. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.8120. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.8075. The pivot point is at 0.8140.


Resistance levels:

0.8230

0.8265

0.8305


Support levels:

0.8120

0.8175

0.8135


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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for Sep 17, 2014

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Fundamental Overview:


GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias before FOMC decision. It is supported by the positive investor risk sentiment and demand from Japanese importers. But GBP/JPY gains are tempered by Japanese export sales But GBP sentiment is also dented by the lower-than-expected U.K. August CPI of +1.5% on-year (versus forecast +1.6%). GBP/USD gains are also tempered by the uncertainty over the Scottish independence referendum on Thursday.


Technical Comment:
The daily chart is mixed as MACD is bullish, five-day moving average is above 15-day MA and is advancing, but stochastics is turned bearish at the overbought zone; inside-day-range pattern was completed on Tuesday.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 175.90 and the second target at 176.40. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 173.75. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 172.95. The pivot point is at 174.45.


Resistance levels:

175.90

176.40

176.95

Support levels:

173.75

172.95

172.60


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