BITCOIN Analysis for November 6, 2018

Bitcoin is still quite corrective and volatile, trading above $6,400 area with a daily close. The price is currently residing above the dynamic levels of 20 EMA, Tenkan and Kijun line. Besides, Chikou Span is currently held between the price lines. The current formation indicates further bullish pressure in the coming days. The price has formed Inverted Head and Shoulder along the way, being rejected off the 200 EMA which also indicates bullish momentum in the short term. As the price remains above $6,000 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue. The current formation may lead to certain impulsive bullish gains in the process.

SUPPORT: 6,000, 6,400

RESISTANCE: 6,500, 7,500

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Today's election in the USA is the main political event not only of the day, but also of the year. Typically, such elections

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Today's election in the USA is the main political event not only of the day, but also of the year. Typically, such elections do not exert strong pressure on the dollar or financial markets. The current situation is unique, so we should expect a violent reaction and surprises until the impeachment of the current president.

On the eve of the elections, the dollar yields to most of the key currencies, holding positions against the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. This indicates that market participants do not expect a stock market crash.

In general, the markets have already laid in the current quotes the victory of the Democrats in the elections to the House of Representatives. Any other result can lead to significant fluctuations.

Note that with the full leadership of the Democratic Party, the legislation of recent years in the field of economic incentives may be partially repealed and the question of impeachment of Donald Trump will be raised. In this situation, the next two years will be extremely restless. Experts predict a "political dead end and big fireworks".

If victory is in the hands of the Republicans, it will mean an expression of trust in Donald Trump and his policies, the world will have to accept protectionism. In addition, markets will see opportunities for further tax cuts. Stocks will go down, bond yields will start to increase, and the dollar will rise.

Three possible scenarios and currency movements

  • The Republican Party retains control of Congress. This is a bullish dollar scenario. The USD / JPY rate can reach 114, and EUR / USD can reach 1.1350.
  • The Democratic Party gets a majority in the House, the Republican holds the Senate. The dollar will accept such news without enthusiasm, but not much upset. It is expected that the pair USD / JPY will take the mark of 112.50, and EUR / USD will be in the range of 1.1450-1.1475.
  • The victory of the Democrats is absolute control over both chambers. This will please dollar "bears". The pair USD / JPY will take the mark of 112, and the pair EUR / USD will rise above 1.15.
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Another piece of negative news for the euro

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The purchasing managers' index in October fell to a two-year low, as growing tensions in trade relations and new tariffs, along with growing political uncertainty, had a negative effect on exports and business optimism.

At the same time, the European Central Bank was hoping for good news, as it plans to stop its asset purchase program with a budget of 2.6 trillion euros by the end of the year, disabling one of the main instruments to stimulate the eurozone economy. The index of purchasing managers from IHS Markit, which is the most accurate indicator of economic health in general, fell to 53.1 points in October from 54.1 points in September, which is the lowest figure since September 2016.

In general, the block economy grew by 0.2 percent in the third quarter and, according to analysts, in the current quarter the growth will reach 0.4 percent.

Among the negative factors for the euro, Brexit remains in the first place, the ongoing trade war between the United States and China, as well as the end of Angela Merkel's political career, all this has a negative effect on business sentiment.

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EUR / USD: Eurozone data indicates a likely slowdown in economic growth in the 4th quarter of this year.

Data released in the first half of the day in the euro area, put pressure on the European currency, which did not allow traders to resume an upward trend in risky assets. The data indicates a high probability that the eurozone economy will again begin to show a slowdown in the 4th quarter of this year after the rise observed in the 2nd and 3rd quarters.

According to the report of the Federal Statistics Agency, orders in the manufacturing sector of Germany grew slightly in September of this year compared with August. The increase was due to higher domestic demand. However, a sharp decline was observed from countries outside the monetary union.

Basic data

According to the data, orders in the manufacturing sector as a whole rose by 0.3% after rising 2.5% in August. Economists had expected orders in September to fall by 0.6% altogether. As I noted above, domestic orders in September rose by 2.8%, while demand from non-eurozone countries dropped by 3.7% at once. Compared to the same period of 2017, orders decreased by 2.2%.

The data on activity in the Eurozone services sector also failed to support the euro. A sharp decline in Germany and Italy led to a fall in the overall index in the eurozone.

According to the report, the PMI Purchasing Managers Index for Germany in October of this year showed a slowdown in growth and amounted to 54.7 points against 55.9 points in September. Economists had forecast that PMI for Germany's service sector would be at 53.6 points.

In Italy, the activity in the services sector also fell sharply. According to Markit, the PMI Purchasing Managers Index fell below 50 points, indicating a decline in activity. The report indicates that in October it was 49.2 points against 53.3 points in September.

The activity in the Eurozone services sector in October turned out to be slightly higher than expected, but there is little to be happy about. According to IHS Markit, the PMI Purchasing Managers Index for the Eurozone services sector in October 2018 was 53.7 points against 54.7 points in September of this year. Growth in business activity at such a slow pace could lead to a possible slowdown in economic growth in the 4th quarter.

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As for the technical picture of the EUR / USD currency pair, it remained almost unchanged. The breakthrough of the resistance level of 1.1420 will strengthen the presence of euro buyers, which will lead to the resumption of an uptrend with the updating of the resistance levels of 1.1450 and 1.1480. In the case of a decline below the support level of 1.1390, the pressure on the euro may increase significantly, which will lead to a larger downward trend with a return to the lows of last month in the area of 1.1300.

The Australian dollar ignored the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which kept interest rates unchanged at 1.5%, where it has been located for more than two years.

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The RBA said that low interest rates still support the economy, and maintaining rates at the same level will correspond to stable GDP growth rates. Also, the current level of interest rates will allow over time to reach the target level of inflation.

The RBA believes that the prospects for the labor market remain positive, and they expect unemployment to decline to about 4.75% in 2020.

Economists of the bank revised their forecasts for GDP growth in 2018–2019 upwards to 3.5%.

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Where will the dollar rate go in the near future?

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This week, there should be two events that can determine the further movement of the US currency. We are talking about the upcoming elections to the US Congress and the next meeting of the Federal Reserve, which will be held on Thursday.

It should be noted that the so-called "midterm elections" usually do not have a significant impact on the markets, but this time, largely because of the contradictory policies of the White House, they have become an extremely important event.

According to recent polls, there is still a high probability that Democrats can take control of the House of Representatives, and Republicans can maintain a majority in the Senate. However, the parties are now almost nostrils in the nostril, so the balance of political forces in the US parliament may be unpredictable.

Experts predict that if Democrats gain the majority of seats in the House of Representatives, then EUR / USD may rise to the level of 1.15, and USD / JPY, on the contrary, may decline to the level of 112. If the Republicans manage to keep control over Congress, then USD / JPY may rise to 114, and EUR / USD to sink below 1.13.

At the same time, it is not likely that the elections will have a long-term impact on the dollar exchange rate, since investors will quickly turn their attention to the prospects for US monetary policy.

It is assumed that at the next meeting, the Fed will leave the interest rate unchanged and announce its further plans to tighten monetary policy. Thus, the impact of this event on the dollar will be temporary and limited.

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EUR / USD: Interim congressional elections will determine the direction of the US dollar

The US dollar strengthened its position against the euro and the British pound yesterday, but the uncertainty in the elections to the US Congress did not allow for the formation of a larger upward wave. Let me remind you that today, there will be midterm elections to the US Congress, which may in the short term affect the US dollar rate.

US congressional elections

If the Republican Party succeeds in retaining the majority in the House of Representatives, this will lead to the strengthening of the US dollar and its return to the region of last month's highs paired with the European currency.

If the situation changes and the majority in the House of Representatives is received by the Democratic Party, the dollar may decline substantially, although with the increase in interest rates in the United States, the decline will not be continuous. It should also be remembered that tomorrow, the meeting of the Federal Reserve System will begin, the results of which will be announced this Thursday. However, given the fact that at this meeting on monetary policy, no one plans to raise interest rates, its results are unlikely to significantly affect the US dollar.

Basic data

As for the data that came out yesterday in the afternoon, it should be noted that the indicator of activity in the US service sector rose in October. It happened due to the good growth of new orders. According to Markit, the final PMI Purchasing Managers Index for the US service sector rose to 54.8 points in October from 53.5 points in September. Let me remind you that the index values above 50 indicate an increase in activity.

The PMI Purchasing Managers Index for the non-manufacturing sector of the United States slowed down a bit, but turned out to be better than economists' forecasts.

According to the ISM Institute for Supply Management, the purchasing managers index for the non-production sector in October dropped to 60.3 points from 61.6 points in September, while economists had forecast that in October the index would be 59.5 points.

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An excellent indicator of growth in employment trends in October indicates a good state of the labor market. According to the Conference Board report, the employment trends index in October of this year rose to 110.72 points against the September value of 110.39 points.

US sanctions

Yesterday, the US administration imposed a series of sanctions against Iran. It was known about them for a long time, however, the sanctions began to operate from yesterday. As noted in the report, the ban concerns the import of oil from Iran, and also applies to more than 700 Iranian banks, companies, and individuals. As the Minister of Finance of the USA Mnuchin noted, the sanctions will be in effect until the Iranian authorities change their destabilizing policies.

As for the technical picture of the EUR / USD currency pair, it remained unchanged. Yesterday's attempts of both "drag and drop" to both buyers and sellers did not lead to success, and the market continued to be in the side channel. It is likely that market participants are waiting for the fundamental signals, which I mentioned above. The breakthrough of resistance 1.1420 will strengthen the presence of euro buyers, which will lead to the resumption of an uptrend with the updating of resistance levels of 1.1450 and 1.1480. In the case of a decline below the support level of 1.1390, the pressure on the euro may increase significantly, which will lead to a larger downward trend with a return to the lows of last month in the area of 1.1300.

The British pound fell yesterday after the data on the service sector, but buyers quickly returned to the market, while remaining optimistic about the conclusion of the Brexit transaction.

According to Markit, the PMI Purchasing Managers Index for the UK services sector in October this year dropped to 52.2 points from 53.9 points in September. The company is concerned about a moderate increase in business activity in October, as new orders rose at the slowest pace since July 2016, despite the fact of rising production costs.

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Trading Plan for 11/06/2018

Yesterday, there was enough reason to resume the strengthening of the dollar, because the data on business indices in the US was even better than the wildest assumptions. Thus, the business activity index in the service sector increased from 53.5 to 54.8, while the preliminary assessment showed an increase to 54.7. The composite index of business activity rose from 53.9 to 54.9, while, according to preliminary data, growth was expected to 54.8. In turn, the business activity index in the UK services sector fell from 53.9 to 52.2, once again demonstrating business concerns about the uncertainty caused by the confusion with Brexit. Investors simply do not understand what awaits them in the near future, after the UK withdraws from the European Union. While there is no clear understanding of how trade relations will be built between the United Kingdom and Europe, there can be no talk of any optimism on the part of investors.

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The growth of the dollar was hampered by preparations for today's elections in the United States, where Congress and almost a third of senators will be fully re-elected. Almost certainly, the Democrats will be able to take revenge for 2016, when the Republicans got the majority of the seats in Congress and in the Senate. And that's not counting the White House, where they also sent their delegate. Many fear that as soon as the Democrats get a majority in the legislature, they immediately begin to actively interfere with Donald Trump, for whom they have the most tender and touching feelings. So, there is a high probability of a certain paralysis of the American power system, which always leads to greater radicalization of US foreign policy.

So today, the factor of elections in the United States of America will have a major impact on the market. These exit-polls will determine the mood of market participants, and most likely, given the apparent uncertainty about how relations will be built between the various branches of government, it is worth waiting for a negative reaction. In addition to all this, the JOLTS data on open vacancies should show their reduction from 7,136 thousand to 7,100 thousand. The European data will not be able to affect investor sentiment, especially since the final data on business activity indices will simply confirm the preliminary estimate that showed them decline. Also, the growth rate of producer prices is likely to remain unchanged.

The euro / dollar currency pair returns to the level of 1.1440 after a rollback. It is likely to assume a temporary fluctuation within the level of 1.1440 (1.1430 / 1.1450) on the general information and news background.

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The currency pair pound / dollar demonstrates active upward interest, reaching a range level of 1.3000 / 1.3050, where an attempt is being made to fix above it. Probably assume fluctuations within the slide-positive level, where traders should keep track of price fixing 1.3000 / 1.3090 when placing orders.

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"Donkeys" vs. "Elephants": main scenarios of the US election results

The dynamics of trading on the foreign exchange market this week will be determined by China, Brexit, and congressional elections. And if the real prospects for a trade war and Brexit will be known only in a few weeks, then we will know the results of the American elections tomorrow. On the eve of the plebiscite, the dollar is noticeably nervous, since with a high degree of probability the "elephants" (the historical emblem of the Republicans) will lose control over the House of Representatives, retaining the majority only in the Senate.

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In general, this result was predictable long before the election. The composition of the lower house of Congress is re-elected every two years, that is, in the middle of the presidential term (hence the name "midterm elections"). As a rule, the ruling party fails in these elections, losing a majority in one of the chambers. Even the most popular American presidents could not project their success on the party they represented in order to "survive" the intermediate plebiscite. The rare exception in this regard is Bush Junior, but at that time, the Americans had just experienced September 11, which explains their political cohesion.

Given the odiousness of Donald Trump and the lack of absolute support even within the Republican Party, the result of the 2018 elections is not difficult to predict. By and large, the main intrigue now is how strong the Democrats will have over the Republicans in the House of Representatives and how the alignment of forces in the Senate will change.

The latest polls show that members of the Democratic Party in the House of Representatives guaranteed 202 seats for themselves, but only 195 for Republicans. In total, there are 435 seats in the lower chamber, so 38 more positions remain in the air (ratings of candidates in these constituencies are about are equal), but, in the opinion of the overwhelming number of experts, the Democrats will definitely take the majority here. In the Senate, there is a struggle for only 35 seats out of 100, since only part of the Senate mandates are rotated during the midterm elections. Here, the advantage will remain with the Republican Party, at least, many analysts are sure of this.

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In the context of the foreign exchange market, the main question is how the dollar will react to the results of today's elections. The most realistic scenario (Lower House for Democrats, Upper for Republicans) is unlikely to cause a flurry of volatility, although it will put downward pressure on the US currency. The Democratic-controlled House of Representatives will put Trump in a very awkward position, primarily regarding the implementation of a number of legislative initiatives. However, the Republican control over the Senate will allow the president to continue to pursue the personnel policy required by the White House. The Upper Chamber approves (or does not approve) candidates nominated by the head of state for key government positions.

Due to the fact that this, the most likely, option is now widely discussed (including among traders), it will not cause any panic in the markets. Moreover, according to some experts, the dollar may ignore this result. Another thing is if the election results are unexpected, in this case, dollar pairs will be influenced by strong volatility.

We are talking about two unlikely scenarios. If the Republicans maintain the status quo and vice versa, if the Democrats manage to take control of both houses of Congress. Despite the unlikelihood of such options, they cannot be excluded. In favor of losing the Republicans, the fact that the number of supporters of Donald Trump's policies last week fell by four percent, according to a weekly survey, says. In general, the head of state is supported by 40% of respondents, while 54% of respondents were dissatisfied with his policies. By and large, the mid-term congressional elections reflect the Americans' opinion on the actions of their president following the two years of his rule. Therefore, Trump's downgrade may also affect the overall Republican result.

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There is another opinion, already in favor of the Republican Party. According to experts, Donald Trump has a very large number of so-called "hidden supporters". In the public plane (including during polls) they do not talk about their true political views, but in the polling booth "silent fans" support Republicans, associating them with Trump's policies. It is worth recalling that in the last election, many polls gave the victory to Hillary Clinton, but as you know, Trump won them. According to a number of political scientists, a similar sociological discrepancy occurred precisely at the expense of "hidden supporters", which this time may present a surprise.

Thus, despite numerous sociological studies, the intrigue of the midterm elections remains. This means that it is not advisable to trade dollar pairs in the next day due to the unpredictability of the greenback reaction to their results.

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GBP / USD pair: plan for the US session on November 6. Bulls made a profit, but growth potential remains

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

The resistance of 1.3085 was attained, which I paid attention to in my morning forecast. buyers were quick to take profits and resulted in the depreciation of the pound in the area of morning support 1.3031. At the moment, the target of the bulls is the same resistance level of 1.3085. A breakdown of which will lead to the continuation of the upward trend in GBP/USD with access to the highs of 1.3135 and 1.3186, fixing profits are recommended, In the case of a decrease in the pound, it is best to consider new long positions after the update of the minimum near 1.2966, since the support level 1.3031 has already been worked out.

To open short positions on GBP / USD you need:

Sellers have worked well at the resistance of 1.3085. However, they failed to fix below support 1.3031. In the afternoon, the purpose of the bears will be a repeated test of the day's low around 1.3031 and the breakdown of which will lead to a larger sales wave of the GBP/USD pair with the exit to the weekly level of 1.2966, where taking profits are recommended. In the case of growth above 1.3085, it is possible to consider short positions in a pound for a rebound from the highs of 1.3135 and 1.3186.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is held above the 30- and 50-day average, which maintains the upward potential in the British pound.

Bollinger bands

A break of the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator near 1.3085 will be a signal to buy the pound, while a break of the lower border near 1.3031 will lead to a new wave of sales the GBP / USD pair.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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EUR / USD pair: plan for the US session on November 6. Only the election results wake up the market

To open long positions on EUR / USD you need:

Apparently, traders do not take the risk before the results of the midterm elections to the US Congress, which leaves the market balance of buyers and sellers. In the first half of the day, it was not possible to get above the level of 1.1417. Now, the main goal is the maximum around 1.1425. Only its breakdown with consolidation above will form a new upward trend in the EUR / USD pair, which will lead to an update of the maximum of 1.1473 and 1.1516, where taking profits are recommended. In the event of a euro decline in the second half of the day, it is best to consider long positions to rebound from a minimum of 1.1355, or after the formation of a false breakdown in the support area of 1.1389.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

The market is on the side of sellers, as they managed to form a false breakdown in the area of resistance at 1.1417, which I paid attention in my morning review. At the moment, the task of the bears is to break through the support of 1.1389, which will lead to a larger sale of EUR/USD pair to test the weekly minimum of 1.1355, where taking profits are recommended. However, the main target is the area of support at 1.1309, which is located near the low of last month. In the case of growth above 1.1425, you can count on sales only after updating the maximum of 1.1473.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted on the same level with the 30- and 50-day average, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

The volatility of the Bollinger Bands indicator is very low, which does not give signals to enter the market.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for USD / JPY for November 6, 2018

USD / JPY pair

The Japanese yen yesterday remained almost unchanged in price, having only fixed on the daily chart above the balance line. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator during this time has moved to the territory of the growing trend. On the four-hour chart, the situation continues to increase.

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The American stock market yesterday grew by 0.56% and the Japanese rose by 1.02% today. Optimism in the stock market before the elections to the American Congress is more stable, as the market itself seems to be less susceptible to the results of these elections than the currency market.

We are waiting for the yen at the border of the embedded line of the price channel at 114.88.

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Forecast of GBP / USD pair for November 6, 2018

GBP / USD pair

On Monday, the British pound rose by 31 points due to information about a possible change in the status of the Irish border in the Brexit talks. As reported, the negotiators reached agreement on all points of the transaction and the question of the border remained the only one. But if her status is somewhat changed, the UK is likely to receive additional preferences.

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Technically, all indicators except the balance line on a daily scale indicate the growth of the British pound as the price is below this line. This is a sign that the price for today and tomorrow will receive a slowdown and the balance will shift lower, after which a sharp rise in price is possible. The first goal of such growth is the resistance of the trend line of the price channel on the daily chart around 1.3178. Then the Fibonacci reaction level is 110.0% at the price of 1.3312. If markets fall under massive speculation on the basis of elections, the price may turn from the first or second intermediate goal and return to 1.2910 or further below to 1.2808.

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Control zones of GBP/USD pair 11/06/18

At the end of last week, the pair rose by almost 3%, indicating the strength of the upward mid-term movement. This movement must be defined as a medium-term trend and any reduction can be used to search for favorable prices to buy.

The movement of the beginning of this week confirms the strength of the upward momentum formed last week. The pair is already trading above the closing level of last week. Any downward movement will be corrective, which may allow getting favorable prices for the purchase. Today's support will be the a control zone at 1.2989-1.2983. If the pair continues to trade above this zone, purchases will be unprofitable. It is necessary to form a deeper corrective movement in order to be able to enter the trade.

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The growth target remains the a control zone at 1.3129-1.3116, formed from the previous weekly control zone. The most favorable prices for the purchase of an instrument are located within the a control zone at 1.2935-1.2922, testing of which will be decisive for the entire upward movement.

For the formation of an alternative downward model will require the absorption of yesterday's growth and closing of the American session below the opening of the week. This will allow considering a reduction to the a control zone of 1.2935-1.2922, where you can get the most favorable prices for the purchase. It is not worthwhile to consider a reversal movement against the current strong growth since the probability of its reversal is below 30%. This makes any attempts to sell the instrument at a distance unprofitable and dangerous for your deposit.

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The daytime CP is the daytime control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market that change several times a year.

The weekly CP is the weekly control zone. The zone formed by marks from important futures market which change several times a year.

The monthly CP is the monthly control zone. The zone is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for November 6, 2018

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Since September 13, the GBP/USD pair has been demonstrating a successful bullish breakout above the depicted daily downtrend line which came to meet the pair around 1.3025-1.3090.

On September 21, the GBP/USD pair failed to demonstrate sufficient bullish momentum above 1.3296. The short-term outlook turned to become bearish within the depicted H4 bearish channel to test the backside of the broken uptrend.

Bearish persistence below the price level of 1.2970 (50% Fibo level) enhanced further bearish decline towards 1.2790 then 1.2700 where the lower limit of the movement channel and 79.8% Fibonacci Level were located.

On H4 chart, the GBP/USD pair looked oversold around the price levels of 1.2700. BUY entries were suggested around the lower limit of the depicted H4 channel (1.2700).

As for the bullish DAILY breakout scenario to remain valid, quick bullish breakout above 1.3000 (50% Fibo level) was achieved by the end of last week's consolidations.

Bullish persistence above the price zone of 1.2970-1.3000 (50% Fibonacci zone) allows more bullish advancement towards (1.3130) and (1.3200).

On the other hand, bearish breakout below 1.2970 (50% Fibo level) enhances further bearish decline towards 1.2790 and 1.2660.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders can wait for bearish pullback towards 1.2970-1.3000 for a low-risk BUY entry.

T/P levels to be located around 1.3130 and 1.3200. S/L should be set as daily candlestick closure below 1.2970.

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GBP / USD. November 6th. The trading system. "Regression Channels". The pound continues to grow amid expectations of signing

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - up.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: 87.0873

The GBP / USD currency pair rolled back on Monday, November 5, resumed an upward movement, as evidenced by the purple bars of the Heikin Ashi indicator. Traders continue to buy a pound sterling on the next wave of rumors that London and Brussels are close to concluding a "deal". The more interesting the situation becomes, as we have repeatedly seen that the rumors about Brexit do not always correspond to the truth. One way or another, if the parties succeed in reaching a consensus on the issue of the Northern Ireland border, this will be a huge step towards signing a "deal". In this case, the reasons for buying a pound will be obvious. Otherwise, the British currency may come under new pressure from the market. In general, in recent years, a downtrend has formed on the pound, and it is possible that we will still see its new round. In general, for the British currency, X is approaching. Eternally, delaying the negotiations and postponing the final decision will not work. Theresa May's position, despite her assurances of progress, continues to fall. They are already talking about her resignation, and many people are dissatisfied with her plan for leaving the EU. Today, neither in the UK nor in the USA are there any planned macroeconomic publications, but the pound sterling can still continue its growth for the reasons described above.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.3000

S2 - 1.2939

S3 - 1.2878

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.3062

R2 - 1.3123

R3 - 1.3184

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD resumed the upward movement. Thus, it is now recommended to trade on the increase with the objectives of 1.3062 and 1.3123. A reversal of the Heikin Ashi indicator will indicate a downward correction round.

Orders for sale with the aim of 1.2878 will become relevant not earlier than the pair is fixed below the moving average line. Only in this case it will be possible to talk about a change in the direction of the trend to the downward.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. November 6th. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Volatility is reduced due to the lack of important news.

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 71.6576

The currency pair EUR / USD on Monday, November 5, tried to resume the downtrend, but the first attempt ended in failure. The pair returned to the area above the moving average line, but the Murray's level of "3/8" could not be overcome. Thus, now there is uncertainty about the instrument, as the pair is stuck between Murray levels of "2/8" and "3/8". Today in the eurozone, data on the indices of business activity in the areas of production and services Markit will be published. The strong values of these indexes can support the Eurocurrency and help overcome the Murray level of "3/8". Conversely, weak actual values will help the US currency. No important macroeconomic information is expected from the States today. Thus, pair volatility may remain relatively low. In addition to the lack of important macroeconomic statistics, traders are clearly waiting for new information on the topic of Brexit. There is a situation when it is simply impossible to ignore the negotiations between the EU and the UK. The talks themselves are dragged out and are accompanied by a whole mass of various disagreements between the parties, rallies in London, the outright displeasure of the Parliament and the British population with the position of Theresa May, as well as talks about the possible resignation of the prime minister. All these events affect not only the pound, but also the euro.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1353

S2 - 1,1292

S3 - 1.1230

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1,1414

R2 - 1.1475

R3 - 1.1536

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair EUR / USD is trying to resume movement up. We recommend waiting to overcome the level of 1.1414, then open new long positions with a target of 1.1475. There is a high probability of a new round of corrective movement.

Short positions are recommended to open with the target of 1.1353, if the pair consolidates below the MA. However, before the price fixes below the Murray's level of "2/8", it will be premature to talk about a trend change to a downward trend.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for November 6, 2018

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On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair is demonstrating a high-probability Head and Shoulders reversal pattern where the right shoulder is currently in progress.

On September 10, the price level of 1.1500 offered temporary bullish recovery. Quick bullish movement was demonstrated towards the upper limit of the price range (1.1750). However, the EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets.

On October 10, Recent bearish decline below 1.1520 found its way towards the price level of 1.1420 where temporary bullish pressure was pushing the EUR/USD pair above 1.1520 until bearish breakdown of 1.1520 occurred again on October 17.

Hence, a descending high was established around 1.1600 enhancing the bearish side of the market.

However, by the end of last week's consolidations, recent bullish recovery was demonstrated around 1.1307. Another bullish breakout above 1.1400 was temporarily demonstrated again.

Next bullish destination would be located around 1.1520 (upper limit of the depicted congestion zone) if bullish persistence is maintained above 1.1400-1.1420.

On the other hand, as for the bearish side of the market to regain dominance, the EUR/USD pair should continue trading below the price level of 1.1400.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for November 06, 2018

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Overview:

The EUR/USD is still trading around the pivot point of 1.1422. The EUR/USD pair continues to move downwards from the areas of 1.1475 and 1.1422.

Last week, the pair dropped from the level of 1.1475 to 1.1356. Today, resistance is seen at the levels of 1.1422 and 1.1475. So, we expect the price to set below the strong resistance at the levels of 1.1475 and 1.1422; because the price is in a bearish channel now.

Also, it should be noted that the price of 1.1457 coincides with a ratio of 38.2% Fibonacci on the H1 chart. Amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 1.1422 and 1.1300.

In overall, we still prefer the bearish scenario as long as the price is below the level of 1.1422.

Furthermore, if the EUR/USD pair is able to break out the bottom at 1.1356, the market will decline further to 1.1295.

However, if the price closes above the strong resistance of 1.1475, the best location for a stop loss order is seen above 1.1475.

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EM currencies will grow in the absence of surprises in the US elections

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The EM markets run along the precipice edge before the US midterm elections on Tuesday. The Democratic Party, according to polls, will gain control in the House of Representatives, while the Republican Party must retain a majority in the Senate. In such a scenario, risky currencies and currencies of developing countries can win, analysts of Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Nomura International Plc predict. Most of all, in their opinion, the Turkish lira and South African rand will rise in price.

London bank strategist David Honor takes a tactical "bullish" position in emerging markets before today's US elections and on the eve of the November 30 trade summit.

The risks are extremely high, experts warn. On Monday, the index of imputed volatility of developing countries' currencies from JPMorgan Chase & Co. reached its peak level in a month due to hedging from wider price fluctuations in the options market.

It is almost impossible to predict the outcome of elections, therefore market participants rely on polls. Substantial support from Republicans could turn Donald Trump, who takes an even tougher stance on trade and immigration. The dollar will win, and risky currencies will suffer.

Opinion experts Citigroup

"The potential risks after the midterm elections, including the recession in the United States and impeachment, are likely to lead to increased risk aversion, which, as a rule, leads to a decrease in EM assets," write economists.

With an increase in the likelihood of such factors as recession and political paralysis in Washington, the dollar will be under pressure and weaken against the other currencies of G3. A cheaper US currency with growing risk aversion may indicate that EM will decline against the euro or the Japanese yen. However, their fall is not expected to be as strong as a weakening dollar.

Nomura International Forecast

The basic forecast of experts speaks well for the Democratic Party, which will receive a majority in the House of Representatives. This will have a downward pressure on the dollar and contributes to lower rates on the EM. This alignment will provide the Turkish lira and the South African rand with a tailwind.

Another scenario involving the preservation of a majority in the House of Representatives for the Republicans will lead to an increase in the yield of US bonds. The pressure on the currencies of Latin America and EMEA will increase.

It is possible that the full victory will be won by the Democratic Party. This scenario is unlikely, but there is a place to be. The leadership of Democrats in the Senate and the House of Representatives could lead to a massive sale of US bonds and stocks. It is noted that the subsequent risk aversion will put pressure on Latin American currencies, and in EMEA, the lira and the rand will show rapid growth.

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The policy of Angela Merkel "and yours and ours" prevents the euro

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The euro is losing ground relative to five of the seven major currencies, which continues the October trend for the single European currency, but in November.

This week, the euro will not have support in the form of strong data for Germany or the Eurozone, but there is hope for a potential growth catalyst. This is progress in the negotiations on the Italian budget (but more attention will still be paid to the US and Brexit midterm elections), which will help euro to reverse the trend and start to regain positions against major currencies.

In addition, indirectly weakened the position of the euro and ambiguous policy of German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who in October-November managed to agree on mutually exclusive issues with Russian President Vladimir Putin, head of the White House Donald Trump and Ukraine's leader Petro Poroshenko.

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Dollar on the threshold of midterm elections

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The dollar slowed down after three consecutive weeks of growth, because investors are fully focused on the special elections in the United States, which could lead to volatility in world markets.

Despite the sale of the dollar in the second half of last week, hedge funds have added their dollar reserves, making a bet on the highest levels since December 2016, as the latest macroeconomic indicators encourage bullish rates.

The market analysts warn that an unexpected result in the US midterm elections could provoke a massive cessation of long positions in dollars and undermine the dollar, which rose 7% from April lows against its competitors.

It is expected that the elections to the US Congress will help the Democratic Party, which has strong chances to gain control of the House of Representatives, and the Republicans, most likely, will retain an advantage in the Senate.

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The dollar will continue to grow, or why there is no reason to decline

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The dollar held in tight ranges compared to its main competitors on Tuesday, investors are in no hurry to act in anticipation of the election results, the first serious test of Trump's policy of tax breaks and trade protectionism.

It is expected that the election to the US Congress will help the Democratic Party gain control of the House of Representatives, and the Republicans are likely to retain the Senate. Dollar bulls will be happy to receive a Republican-controlled Congress, because it will support Trump's policies. So if Republicans gain control, the dollar will rise. On the other hand, if Congress is split, Democrats will get the House of Representatives, and Republican Senate, the prospect of a legislative stalemate will make Trump's policy, including tax cuts, difficult and will negatively influence the dollar's dynamics in the short term.

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While the US currency is holding very confidently, the dollar index versus the main currency basket at the level of 96.33 points, having reached a 16-month high of 97.20 points last week. Euro slightly, but fell to 1.1404 dollars. Against the yen, the dollar climbed 0.1 percent, to 113.27 yen, also close to a maximum in four weeks.

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Some analysts believe that the pound will rise to $ 1.35

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The pound is again in positive territory, even when the main economic indicators were weaker than expected, as the market preferred to focus on signs of progress in the Brexit negotiations.

The currency strengthened on Monday after the Sunday Times reported that British Prime Minister Theresa May had made concessions from Brussels, which would preserve all of Britain in a customs union with the EU. The pound rose even after the report showed that the service sector slowed in October. Sterling can break through $ 1.35 within two days if a "divorce" is agreed by the UK and the European Union.

According to a Bloomberg forecast, the British currency can recoup about half of its decline by more than 10 percent from Brexit's level if an agreement is reached on a "divorce". The position of traders on the pound was greatly reduced, as the missed deadlines for negotiations over the past months caused concern and increased risks.

Nevertheless, the achievement of any variant of the transaction is likely to be a problematic story. Over the next few weeks, sterling will continue to depend on news headlines, and recent fluctuations in exchange rate mean "instability, which is possible with constant political uncertainty."

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD for November 6. The upward wave 4 continues to complicate

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Wave counting analysis:

During the November 5 trading session, the GBP / USD currency pair gained about 20 basis points. Thus, the rising wave, which takes its beginning on October 30, continues its construction and takes on a long appearance. A further increase based on the news background and market expectations may lead to the need to clarify the current wave marking. The news background is still very important for the tool and, accordingly, can influence wave counting.

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.3124 - 76.4% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.2638 - 261.8% of Fibonacci (senior grid)

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD continues to build the expected wave 4. It is expected that this wave will end soon, therefore, new purchases of the pair are associated with an increased risk. However, until there is a basis for assuming the completion of this wave, the pair's purchases can be supported with the target of 1.3124. An unsuccessful attempt to break through this mark could lead to the completion of the upward wave.

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for November 6. The currency pair shows readiness for growth

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Wave counting analysis:

During the trading on Monday, the EUR / USD currency pair gained about 20 basis points. Thus, there are reasons to assume the completion of the construction of the proposed wave 2 as part of a new upward trend, which can assume a three-wave structure. Thus, the increase in quotations can continue with targets located near the Fibonacci level of 38.2%. There are no grounds for expecting a complication of the downward trend section, originating on September 24.

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.1302 - 0.0% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.1496 - 38.2% of Fibonacci

1.1557 - 50.0% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The currency pair allegedly completed the construction of the downward trend. Thus, now I recommend buying a pair with targets located near the estimated levels of 1.1496 and 1.1557, based on the construction of an upward set of waves. Estimated wave 2 in the composition of the first wave of the ascending section has completed its construction.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for November 06, 2018

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Overview:

The GBP/USD pair broke resistance, which turned into strong support at 1.2925. Right now, the pair is trading above this level. It is likely to trade in a higher range as long as it remains above the support (1.2925), which is expected to act as a major support today. Therefore, there is a possibility that the GBP/USD pair will move upwards and the structure does not look corrective. The trend is still below the 100 EMA for that the bullish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the upside. From this point of view, the first resistance level is seen at 1.3072 followed by 1.3176, while daily support 1 is seen at 1.3000 (50% Fibonacci retracement). According to the previous events, the GBP/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.3000 and 1.3176; so we expect a range of 176 pips. Consequently, buy above the level of 1.3000 with the first target at 1.3072 so as to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 1.3176. Besides, the level of 1.3176 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top. On the contrary, in case a reversal takes place and the GBP/USD pair breaks through the support level of 1.3000, a further decline to 1.2925 can occur, which would indicate a bearish market. Overall, we still prefer the bullish scenario, which suggests that the pair will stay below the zone of 1.2925 today.

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Bitcoin analysis for November 06, 2018

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Trading recommendations:

According to the H1 time frame, I found that the price broke the supply trendline in the background, which is a sign that buyers are in control. The recent high is also broken and this is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for buying opportunities. The take profit is level is set at the price of $6,436.

Support/Resistance

$6,390 – Intraday resistance

$6,343– Intraday support

$6,436 – Objective target

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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USD/JPY analysis for November 06, 2018

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Recently, the USD/JPY pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 113.44. Anyway, according to the H1 time – frame, I have found the fake breakout of the resistance at 113.37, which is a sign that buyers got trapped. I have also found broken upward trendline, which is a sign that sellers are in control. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of 112.60.This bearish idea will be invalid if the price breaks the level of 113.45.

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EUR/USD analysis for November 06, 2018

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.1425. According to the H1 time – frame, I have found a potential end of the downward correction (expanded flat) in the background, which is a sign that selling looks risky. Most recently, I found the breakout of the intraday bullish flat, which is a sign that buyers are in control. My advice is to watch for buying opportunities. The upward take profit levels are set at the price of 1.1450 and at the price of 1.1503.

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Fundamental Analysis of GBP/USD for November 6, 2018

GBP/USD has been quite impulsive with the bullish gains recently. The price is trading above 1.3050 with a daily close. Ahead of the high impact economic reports to be published this week, GBP is quite stronger compared to USD that might encourage further bullish momentum in the future.

GBP gained impulsive momentum over USD last week as the Bank of England left the official rate at 0.75%. On the other hand, some economic reports revealed lackluster results. Recently UK Services PMI report was published with a decrease to 52.2 from the previous figure of 53.9 which was expected to be at 53.4. Nevertheless, GBP managed to sustain the bullish momentum at the daily close which indicates weakness of USD. On Friday this week, GDP report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 0.1% from the previous value of 0.0%, Manufacturing Production is likely to ncrease to 0.1% from the previous value of -0.2%, Prelim GDP could have increased to 0.6% from the previous value of 0.4%, and Prelim Business Investment is also expected to increase to 0.0% from the previous value of -0.7%.

On the other hand, US Average Hourly Earnings report was published with a decrease to 0.2% as expected from the previous value of 0.3%, Non-Farm Employment Change increased to 250k from the previous figure of 118k which was expected to be at 194k, and Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 3.7% as expected. Additionally, this week ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI was published with a decrease to 60.3 from the previous figure of 61.6, better-than-eexpected decrease to 59.3. Today investors are braced for a turbulent day for USD amid the midterm congressional election. Voters will elect all 435 members to the US House of Representatives and 34 members to the Senate. Ahead of the policy update, which will be announced on Thursday which is expected to be unchanged at 2.25%, USD is expected to be quite vulnerable to any surprises along the way.

Meanwhile, GBP is quite optimistic with the upcoming high impact economic reports. USD has chances to gain momentum in case of positive developments. As USD is struggling against GBP currently, the pair is likely to trade with the bullish bias amid higher volatility.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing above 1.3050 area but with weaker-than-expected impulsive momentum to sustain the impulsive pressure further. Though the bias is bullish, certain bearish pressure leading to correction and retrace is expected in the coming days before the price starts to push higher with a target towards 1.3200 and later towards 1.3350 area. As the price remains above 1.2950 area, the pair is set to extend the bullish bias.

SUPPORT: 1.2850, 1.2950, 1.3050

RESISTANCE: 1.3200, 1.3350

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: IMPULSIVE but VOLATILE

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Elections in the USA - the main driver of the day

World markets are frozen in anticipation of the results of mid-term elections to the US Congress, as the results may significantly affect the prospects for the dollar. The most likely scenario is the loss of Republican control over the lower house and maintaining the minimum advantage in the Senate, only such a result will provide relative calm in the markets, both other options can lead to strong shocks.

If the Republicans succeed in retaining the majority in both chambers, it will mean the likelihood of another reform package, the return of Trump's harshness in trade negotiations and a generally stronger dollar. If the Democrats win back both chambers, then the dollar against the euro can rapidly fall below 1.13, and its prospects will be very weak. First of all, it is about the fate of the national debt ceiling, the agreement on which is valid until March 1, the victory of the Democrats with a high probability will lead to the infusion into the banking system from 200 to 350 billion dollars because of the reduction by the Treasury of its balance in the Fed.

Another important factor is that the growth of the labor market has ceased to support inflation expectations. Growth in average wages to a maximum rate over 10 years does not affect inflation, yields on 5-year bonds Tips after a short rebound in early October are falling again and almost reached annual lows, which indicates a high probability of seeing a slowdown in consumer inflation in the coming months.

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The dollar, in fact, has only one way to maintain an uptrend - Republican control over both chambers. Both other scenarios with varying degrees of intensity will contribute to its weakening.

Eurozone

The euro has no direction and continues to trade in a narrow range in anticipation of the results of elections in the United States.

Investor confidence indicator Sentix fell in November to 8.8p, which turned out to be a two-year minimum, the eurozone continues to be in uncertainty about the plans of the ECB. The bank cannot fully control the size of its balance, as previously issued loans under T-LTRO may be repaid by previously established schedules due to their refinancing by commercial banks, the ECB is not satisfied with out-of-balance reduction, and it is not by chance that rumors about a new T-LTRO round appear. The ECB may decide on measures to counter the balance reduction "not on schedule", since the strengthening of the euro amid slowing business activity may adversely affect the state of the eurozone economy.

Today, Markit will present PMI data in November, expectations are neutral.

EURUSD is limited to the trading range of 1.1350 ... 1.1450, exit in any direction is possible according to the results of elections in the United States, if the results are generally in line with forecasts, the euro will continue trading in the range.

Great Britain

Despite the fact that the pound is making vigorous growth attempts due to rumors of an early agreement on Brexit, the state of the British economy looks increasingly alarming. Business growth in the services sector slowed to 52.2p, which is the minimum since March, new jobs have been created at the lowest rates since July 2016, the level of positive sentiment in the year perspective is also the lowest in more than 26 months.

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And, nevertheless, the pound bulls look more than confident - the reason is that the third season of the Brexit series is approaching a happy end. Last week, the Times surprised markets with a statement that British banks could be allowed to stay in European markets after the "divorce", on Sunday there was evidence that May managed to agree on UK membership in the Customs Union that the deal is actually agreed and the matter is only in the formalities.

Markets expect the deal to be finalized by November 21, Brexit Minister Dominic Raab announced this date. If the rumors are confirmed, the pound will be able to sharply strengthen against the background of revising expectations for the Bank of England rate.

GBPUSD with a high probability will continue to grow on Tuesday, the nearest targets are 1.3115 and 1.3210, but if the deal is announced officially, then a gap to 1.35 and higher is possible.

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Today, the market is focused on the voting in the US Congress

After D. Trump was encouraged by the markets last week with a statement that he had a new trade proposal for China, the fall in global stock markets stopped, and the US dollar passed some of the previously won positions on the foreign exchange market.

After a wave of euphoria, investors are currently trying to understand for themselves what the president's words are. If it's another trick in his not too subtle economic and political struggle with competitors both inside and outside the country, or is he really following his old tradition after heavy pressure on the opponent begins to hand back, while hoping to get exactly what I wanted initially.

Assessing the existence of such sentiments, we believe that activity in the foreign exchange market, and in general in world markets, is likely to be before November 30, when the G20 Summit will take place. The situation may change radically, and high volatility may return to the markets again.

We have in mind today's vote in the US Congress. If the Republicans win, then Trump will have strong support in his internal and external affairs, but if the victory comes from the Democrats, this will most likely lead to strong movements in the US financial market, which can also contribute to a strong increase in volatility and a resumption falling local stock market, which at the same time may lead to an increase in demand for the dollar as an asset safe haven.

We have no doubt that this event can overshadow all the news that will be released today, since the degree of tension that has developed between the personality of the 45th President of the United States and his, first of all, ideological opponents, can plunge local political life chaos with all the negative consequences. Based on this scenario, we believe that it is necessary to exercise caution in making decisions.

From the economic statistics data released today, the values of the business activity index in the services sector of Germany and the eurozone, as well as the figures for production inflation in the euro area will attract attention.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR / GBP currency pair is trading above the level of 0.8725, generally remaining in the "outset". It can turn up and rush to 0.8780 in the wake of positive data on industrial inflation in the eurozone, if it holds above 0.8725.

The EUR / JPY currency pair is trading below the level of 129.30. The pair also has the potential for local growth in the wake of positive data on inflation from the eurozone. The intersection of the price level of 129.30 may lead the pair to rise to 130.15.

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Analysis of the divergence of EUR / USD for November 6. Eurocurrency chances for growth are small

4h

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The EUR / USD currency pair made a return to the correctional level of 76.4% - 1.1422. The release of quotes from this Fibo level will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the American currency and a resumption of decline in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1303. There is no maturing divergence in any indicator. Fixing the pair above the Fibo level of 76.4% will increase the chances for further growth in the direction of the next correctional level of 61.8% - 1.1497.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from August 15, 2018, and September 24, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the pair made a U-turn in favor of the euro currency around the correctional level of 127.2% - 1.1285 and started the growth process in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1553. The ripening divergences on the current schedule on November 6 are not observed. Fixing the pair below the Fibo level of 127.2% will work in favor of the American currency and resuming the fall in the direction of the correctional level of 161.8% - 1.0941.

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

New purchases of the EUR / USD currency pair can be made with the target of 1.1497 and a Stop Loss order below the Fibo level of 76.4% if the pair closes above the correction level of 1.1422.

Sales of the EUR / USD currency pair will be possible with the goal of 1.1303 with a Stop Loss order above the Fibo level of 76.4% if the pair bounces the correction level of 1.1422.

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Analysis of GBP / USD Divergences for November 6. The pound continues to regain losses

4h

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On the 4-hour chart, the GBP / USD currency pair resumed the growth process to a correction level of 61.8% - 1.3066. The end of the pair on November 6 from the Fibo level of 61.8% will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US dollar and a slight drop in the direction of the correction level of 50.0% - 1.2995. There are no emerging divergences today. Fixing the pair above the Fibo level 61.8% will increase the likelihood of continued growth in the direction of the next correctional level of 76.4% - 1.3157.

The Fib net is built on extremes from September 20, 2018, and October 30, 2018.

1h

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On the hourly chart, the pair rebounded from the correctional level of 50.0% - 1.2978 and resumed growth, entrenched above the Fibo level of 61.8% - 1.3044. Thus, the growth process can be continued in the direction of the next correction level of 76.4% - 1.3125. There are no ripening divergences now. Fixing quotations under the Fibo level of 61.8% can be interpreted as a reversal in favor of the US currency and to expect a slight decline in the direction of the correctional level of 50.0%.

The Fibo grid was built on extremums from October 12, 2018, and October 30, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the GBP / USD currency pair can be carried out now with the target of 1.3125 and a Stop Loss order under the correction level of 61.8%, since the pair completed closing above the level of 1.3044 (hourly chart).

Selling of the GBP / USD currency pair will be possible with a target of 1.2978 and a Stop Loss order above the 61.8% level if the pair closes below the correction level 1.3044 (hourly chart).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for 06/11/2018

Changes in the currency market are small with a slight advantage of risky currencies over USD and JPY. EUR / USD is a little over 1.14, and GBP / USD managed to get over 1.3050. USD / JPY set 4-week high at 113.42.

Moods in the Asian stock market are mixed, as China's slumps obscure gains in other regions, benefiting from a positive shutdown on Wall Street on Monday. Chinese Shanghai Composite loses 0.3%, but the Japanese Nikkei225 grows by 1.1%.

Crude oil WTI extinguished Monday's increases and WTI returned under 63 USD / b. Bret is 0.5 percent lower. at 72.8 USD / b.

On Tuesday, the 6th of November, the event calendar is light in important data releases, but the global investors should keep an eye on the bunch of PMI Services and PMI Composite data releases from across the EU. During the night, New Zealand will post Unemployment Rate and Employment Change data, together with Participation Rate and Price Wages.

Nat Gas analysis for 06/11/2018:

The commodity that attracts the most attention of investors at the beginning of the week is natural gas. The quotes due to the lowest inventories of raw material and forecasts assuming the extreme wave of cold in the United States have gone up by more than 6 percent. The rate violated the $ 3.50 barrier at night and stays close to the ceiling.

Let's now take a look at the Natural Gas technical picture at the H4 time frame. The next target for bulls is the swing high from 29/01/2018 at the level of $3.659. If the price will hit this level, the Nat Gas will be the most expensive since January this year. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $3.364. Positive and strong momentum supports the bullish outlook.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com