Trump is very serious. No concessions, either a deal or tariffs

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US President Donald Trump said that he was ready to continue raising tariffs on part of Chinese imports from the current 10% to 25%, and reiterated his threat to increase tariffs on all remaining imports from China.

Four days before meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Argentina, Trump said it's "unlikely" that he would fulfill China's request to postpone the increase. "The only possible deal will be that China should open itself up to competition from the United States," said Trump, adding, "this also applies to other countries."

In Beijing, Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang confirmed China's hopes that both sides would be able to achieve a "positive result" at the meeting of the two leaders, citing the "consensus" they reached on November 1 during a telephone conversation. Another Chinese official, on condition of anonymity, said that both leaders would strive to defend their interests, and the main problem was how to resolve disputed issues and end a trade war.

It is worth noting that Apple shares fell after Trump's speech. Earlier, Apple CEO Tim Cook personally discussed the issue of tariffs with Trump, telling the president that, although there are strong concerns about US-China trade, "tariffs are not the best way to solve them."

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Fed thinks about stopping rate hikes

The Fed is thinking about stopping the rate hike.

In the last speeches of the Fed, we have seen changes in tone. The Fed in 2019 will pay more attention to trends in economic data - such as inflation, unemployment, business activity, investment, and output.

Such statements tell us about what we already guessed - the Fed is close to its goal in raising rates. Despite a strong economy, the GDP growth is about 3.5% per annum, a very high level of employment while the unemployment is below 4%. At the same time, relatively moderate inflation, not higher than 3.5%, has caused a serious problem the US state with a big public debt worth 20 trillion dollars.

The cost of servicing government debt is a heavy burden for the US budget and every increase in the Fed rate increases these costs.

Thus, a pause in the Fed rate increase is quite possible and for the US budget, it is highly desirable.

Carefully look at the "minutes" of the Fed on Wednesday, 28th of November.

(Announcement of a stop in the Fed rate hikes is a growth signal for the euro).

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GBP / USD pair: plan for the American session on November 27. The pound continues to fall due to specifics by Brexit

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

Buyers gave up a large support level of 1.2788, which I paid attention to in my morning forecast, but I did not manage to break through below monthly minimums. While trading will be conducted above the support of 1.2727, we can expect a return and consolidation above resistance of 1.2786 which will trigger new purchases in GBP / USD with an exit to the maximum of 1.2856, where I recommend taking profits on long positions. In the event of a further decrease in the pound, you can count on purchases to rebound from new lows in the 1.2663 and 1.2625 areas.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

Repeated test of support 1.2727 will lead to the formation of a new wave of sales of the British pound with access to the minima in the area of 1.2663 and 1.2625, where I recommend to fix the profit. In the case of an upward correction in the second half of the day, short positions can return after the formation of a false breakdown in the area of large resistance 1.2786 or to a rebound from the upper limit of the channel 1.2856.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is below 30-day and 50-day moving averages, which indicates a further downward trend of the pound.

Bollinger bands

A repeated test of the lower limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.2727 will lead to a new wave of falling pounds.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Experts believe the palladium has risen sharply in price by new gold

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According to expert estimates, the value of palladium in the global market of precious metals reached a record high. Many analysts call this metal new gold.

According to the New York Stock Exchange, palladium quotes are currently up 9%. According to experts, this is the best indicator since the beginning of the year among the most demanded metals. Investors believe that the precious metals market is at the beginning of a serious rally.

According to the CPM Group, about 70% of palladium demand is in the automotive industry. This metal is required for catalytic converters. The widespread transition of the automotive industry from diesel to petrol power units provoked an explosive growth in demand in the global market, analysts say.

In China, the increase in demand for palladium is caused by the active struggle against environmental pollution. China has tightened standards to preserve purity, which is why automakers began to use catalytic converters in large quantities. According to Maxwell Gold, a leading analyst of the company, the palladium market has good long-term prospects. The expert considers the acute shortage of precious metals over the past eight years to be a kind of "fly in the ointment", but M. Gold is sure that this can be done.

Last Friday, an ounce of palladium was given $ 1,170. According to analysts of the company Citigroup, we should expect further growth in the value of the "new gold". It should be noted that three-quarters of the global stock of this metal are produced by the countries of South Africa and Russia. The volume of Russian palladium production in 2017 amounted to 81 tons.

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EUR / USD: from Brexit to G20

The dollar index was again in the region of 97 points, reflecting the demand for US currency throughout the market. Traders resumed risk aversion amid increased uncertainty, both about Brexit's prospects and about the prospects for US-China relations. And if London's "divorce proceedings" with Brussels took a pause until December 10 (the approximate date of the vote in the British parliament), then the fate of a trade war will be decided in the coming days. At the end of this week, namely on November 30 and December 1, the G-20 summit will take place in Argentina, which traditionally attracts the attention of traders.

This year, the stakes are especially high. The fact is that the long-awaited meeting of Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will take place on the G20 margins. This will be the first full-fledged one-on-one dialogue after the start of a large-scale trade war. The outcome of this meeting is difficult to overestimate. Based on the results of the negotiations, the United States and China will either take the path of normalizing relations or exacerbate the trade conflict. Moreover, as warned at the White House, the failure of negotiations is fraught with a "cold war". According to US Vice President Mike Pence, the US economy can withstand such an escalation in relations.

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On the other side of the scale is a broad bargain. As Trump said recently, China "really wants" to conclude a trade agreement, but the working groups are still negotiating, so it's too early to talk about any preliminary agreements. This week, the American president tightened his rhetoric, putting pressure on Beijing. In particular, he said that on January 1, he would increase duties from 10% to 25% on imports of a number of Chinese goods by another $ 257 billion. This will be the first (but not the only) step of Washington if the parties fail to agree in Buenos Aires.

It is worth noting that quite a little is known about the details of the negotiation process. According to Trump, the Americans insist that China open its country to competition from the States. Beijing, in turn, proposes to focus on another aspect, reducing primarily the imbalance in trade in goods. Let me remind you that the Chinese surplus in trade with the United States last year amounted to $ 420 billion. This year, this trend continues, despite the trade war. In this regard, the Chinese are proposing a sharp increase in imports of American products, in particular, raw materials.

Thus, the conceptual approach to solving the problem of the Chinese and Americans is significantly different. According to the American press, Washington makes Beijing a list of broader requirements, the scope of which goes beyond the boundaries of foreign trade. We are talking about violations of intellectual property rights of US companies, as well as the action of Chinese state programs for the development of innovative industries. In addition, the dynamics of the implementation of the national strategy Made in China 2025 frankly scares the Americans (not the first year), so it is important for Washington to restrain the Middle Kingdom in this context.

In other words, the financial world is again waiting for a key event. And although, as acknowledged by the parties, at the G20 summit, in any case, there will be no trade deal, Trump and Xi Jinping can agree on a basis for further negotiations. At the moment, contradictory information comes to the market. Representatives of the White House mainly take a skeptical stance, saying that a compromise has not yet been found. But Beijing reports some progress. As the spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs said today, the leaders of the two countries had agreed in advance by telephone to reach mutually beneficial agreements.

However, there is still no reliable information on this issue, so traders prefer to wait, gradually increasing their dollar positions. A pair of euro-dollar against the background of a controversial fundamental background remains within the flat, although the strengthening of the American currency leads the pair to the base of the 13th figure. By the end of the week, such uncertainty will continue, so the dollar will continue to be in demand, strengthening the position of bears EUR / USD.

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From a technical point of view, the basis of the 13th figure is not a level of support, so today this target will surely be passed. The nearest support level is 1.1245 (the bottom line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart). In general, the downward movement prevails over the pair, the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator has formed a bearish Parade of Lines signal, in which the price is under all its main lines and under the Kumo cloud. Secondly, the pair is between the middle and lower lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator, which also points to the southern trend.

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EUR / USD pair: plan for the US session on November 27. Bears are gradually crushing the euro down

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Although the buyers have missed the morning support level, there has not yet been a major drop in the euro. The main task for the second half of the day will be the return and consolidation above the resistance of 1.1340, which will lead to a larger upward trend with the update of the maximum near 1.1374, where I recommend to fix the profit. If the pressure on the euro continues, then it is best to consider new long positions after a false breakdown of the level of 1.1307 or a rebound from the new weekly minimum around 1.1273.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

As long as the trade is below 1.1340 resistance, pressure on the euro will continue and a decline once again to the morning support level of 1.1307 may lead to its breakdown with access to new lows in the area of 1.1273 and 1.1226, where I recommend to take profits. In case of growth on the resistance of 1.1340 in the second half of the day, I recommend returning to the short positions in EUR / USD to rebound from the maximum of 1.1374.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted below the 30- and 50-day moving averages, which indicates a further downward trend of the euro.

Bollinger bands

The morning support level around the lower limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator has worked for itself but its repeated test around 1.1307 may lead to a further sale of EUR/USD pair.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trump's performance pushes the dollar to two-week highs. Where to go?

The dollar received another boost. The reason for the growth was the statement of US President Donald Trump about the readiness to raise tariffs and further, the war is likely to continue, and hence the demand for the dollar will grow. Trump's performance also negatively affected the pound. Trump said an agreement allowing the UK to leave the EU could hamper trade ties between Washington and London.

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The threat of a worsening trade conflict between the two largest economies in the world will be the main source of risk next year amid expectations of a slowdown in the global economy. At the same time, the tariff war will continue to disperse the dollar, which is growing for the third session in a row. Investors choose the security of the most liquid currency in the world, fearing that the global economic recovery is losing momentum.

The important date is still November 30 with the upcoming meeting between Trump and C plays a key role. It is expected that at the G20 summit in Buenos Aires, Trump and Xi Jinping will discuss controversial trade issues and the results of this conversation will greatly affect trading-sensitive currencies. If the parties do not reach an agreement, it is likely that new tariffs will be introduced, which will increase the risks to trade.

Against this background, many may forget about tomorrow's speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and skip the publication of the minutes of the Fed meeting from November 7-8, which will be published on Thursday. This is not worth doing. The protocols will show how the Fed officials are convinced of the need to further increase the interest rate.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for November 27, 2018

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On September 21, the GBP/USD failed to demonstrate sufficient bullish momentum above 1.3296. Since then, the short-term outlook turned to become bearish under the depicted daily downtrend.

On H4 chart, the GBP/USD pair looked oversold around the price levels of 1.2700 where profitable BUY entries were suggested.

A quick bullish movement was demonstrated towards the price level of 1.3170-1.3200 where another descending high around the depicted downtrend was established.

This initiated the current bearish pullback towards the depicted consolidation-zone of (1.2750-1.2880) where the current sideway movement within the depicted H4 channel was initiated.

Recently, the GBP/USD pair failed to establish a successful bullish breakout above the price level of 1.2880 (the upper limit of the current consolidation range).

Moreover, a quick decline was demonstrated towards the price zone around 1.2750

The current scenario may pursue a bearish flag continuation pattern provided that bearish persistence below 1.2750 is maintained on a daily basis.

The projected target for the continuation pattern is initially located around 1.2600.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of GBP / USD for November 27. There is almost no chance for a pound to rise.

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Wave counting analysis:

During the November 26 trading session, the GBP / USD currency pair dropped just a few points. However, at the moment, the minimum of the estimated wave 2 has already been broken, so the probability that we will see a complication of the downward set of waves or the estimated wave b is almost 100%. News background still does not support pound sterling. The situation with Brexit is still not 100% resolved. Thus, we can see the transformation of the wave pattern into a complex descending structure, involving the construction of two more pulsed descending waves.

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.2935 - 50.0% of Fibonacci

1.2991 - 38.2% of Fibonacci

1.3175 - 0.0% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.2695 - 100.0% of Fibonacci

1.2637 - 261.8% of Fibonacci (senior grid)

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The GBP / USD currency pair is likely to complicate the downward trend, which takes a very complex and unusual look. An attempt to build an uptrend trend within the framework of the supposed wave c at the moment seems to have failed. So now I recommend not to buy a pair. At the same time, sales look quite risky, since the positive news from Brexit may be the impetus for the pair to build a new upward wave.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of EUR / USD for November 27. A pair may significantly complicate the downward trend

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Wave counting analysis:

During the Monday trading, the EUR / USD pair lost only 10 basis points. Nevertheless, the expected wave 2 of the new upward trend section continues its construction. And the more complex it takes, the less chance there is that an uptrend of the trend will be built, and not downwardly complicated. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 38.2% of the Fibonacci level may throw the pair up, but without the corresponding news background, the euro will be difficult to continue building an upward set of waves.

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.1215 - 0.0% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.1500 - 100.0% of Fibonacci

1.1577 - 127.2% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The currency pair remains until the construction of an upward set of waves. Thus, now I recommend cautious purchases of a pair with targets located near the estimated marks of 1.1500 and 1.1577, which corresponds to 100.0% and 127.2% in Fibonacci. But a successful attempt to break through the mark of 1.1324 is likely to lead to a transition to a backup scenario of events, suggesting the complication of the entire downward trend segment, originating from September 24.

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GBP / USD: plan for the European session on November 27. The pound is waiting for news on Brexit from the Bank of England

To open long positions on GBP / USD, you need:

Yesterday, buyers failed to hold above a rather important resistance level of 1.2861, and the main task today for the first half of the day will be to maintain support at 1.2800. In the case of its breakdown, it is best to return to long positions in GBP / USD only after the update of this month's minimum around 1.2723. The formation of a false breakdown around 1.2800 will be a signal to buy the pound, and a breakthrough and consolidation above the resistance level of 1.2861 will lead to the upper boundary of the side channel of 1.2924, where I recommend fixing the profits.

To open short positions on GBP / USD, you need:

The bears need to break below 1.2800, and, most likely, they will be able to do it, since the above level has already been hit a lot of times. The breakdown of 1.2800 will lead to a larger sale of the pound with the release of at least a month in the area of 1.2723, where I recommend fixing the profit. In the case of GBP / USD growth in the first half of the day, short positions can be considered after the test of resistance 1.2861 or for a rebound from the maximum of 1.2924.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade is conducted below the 30- and 50-day moving averages, which indicates a likely continued decline in the pound.

Bollinger bands

A break of the lower border of the Bollinger Bands indicator near 1.2789 will lead to the fall of the British pound.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Plan for 11/27/2018

At first, yesterday, everything happened strictly according to the "Monday vs. Friday" scenario, and the dollar was confidently losing ground. Moreover, there were quite optimistic news from Italy, whose government allegedly agreed to amend the budget and reduce its deficit to the maximum set by the rules of the European Union. But in the afternoon, the picture changed dramatically, and the pound with the single European currency began to lose ground again. This time, Mario Draghi, who spoke at the European Parliament, was responsible for the celebration. In essence, the head of the European Central Bank reiterated the risks of a slowdown in economic growth, as well as an increase in risks associated with the protectionist policies of Donald Trump. Of course, he talked about this before, but lately more and more often. And the closer the date of the meeting of the Board of the European Central Bank, after which the program of quantitative easing should be curtailed, the more insistent Mario Draghi reminds everyone of the risks and problems. True, diligently bypassing the issue of government debt of the euro area countries. And it is obvious that many perceive this as an indication that the head of the ECB is tritely preparing the ground for the next extension of the quantitative easing program. And the question of Italy in the evening was quite a strange one since the meeting of the government was over, but no information about it was disclosed. There are only rumors and speculation that investors are fed three times a day.

Today, like yesterday, the macroeconomic calendar is almost empty. Yes, and with the speeches of various officials somewhat sadder. It is hoped that at least some details will be known regarding yesterday's meeting of the Italian government. Given that the Italians are clearly not going to pay a fine of one and a half billion euros for violating the rules of the European Union and some kind of compromise is needed, and also that the ECB is likely to prolong the program of quantitative easing, we should expect relatively positive news. But even without this, the dollar has few reasons for growth, as today's S & P / Case-Shiller data may show a slowdown in house price growth from 5.5% to 5.3%. Although the data are not so significant, they still do not add optimism.

The euro/dollar currency pair, after a rollback, once again restored the descending move, returning to the local imaginary 1.1325. Probably assume stagnation near this value, in the case of a breakthrough, we see a move to the main range level of 1.1300.

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The currency pair pound/dollar field of time bump and rollback restored the downward move, returning the quotation to the range level of 1.2770. Probably assume fluctuations in the range of 1.2750 / 1.2790, tracking the mood of the market.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for November 27, 2018

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On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair is demonstrating a high-probability Head and Shoulders reversal pattern where the right shoulder is currently in progress.

On the daily chart, the pair has been moving sideways with slight bearish tendency. Recent bearish movement is maintained within the depicted daily movement channel.

On November 13, the EUR/USD demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the lower limit of the channel as well as the depicted demand zone came to meet the pair.

A quick bullish advance was demonstrated towards 1.1420. To be noted that prominent supply zone as well as the previous wave high are located around 1.1420-1.1520.

Bullish fixation above 1.1420 was needed to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1520. However, the market demonstrated significant bearish rejection around the price level of 1.1420 (shooting-star weekly candlestick).

The EUR/USD pair remains under bearish pressure below 1.1420. A quick decline should be expected towards 1.1270 and probably 1.1150 if sufficient bearish pressure is demonstrated.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD. November 27th. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Pound sterling cannot oppose the US dollar

4-hour timeframe

Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -23.9584

The currency pair GBP / USD on Tuesday, November 27, also resumed its downtrend, as traders did not find any reason to buy the British pound. It seems that there are times for the pound when market participants are ready to react with purchases only when they receive official and positive information from the UK. Thus, the information that EU leaders approved a document defining future relations between Britain and the EU after Brexit did not have any impact. Because now everything will depend on the British Parliament, which may well block the entire Brexit. The leader of the Labor Party, Jeremy Corbyn, has already indicated a desire to unite with other opponents of Brexit in order to block the bill of Theresa May. Thus, Mrs. May can negotiate arbitrarily with EU leaders, but if the British Parliament does not support its initiatives, then there will be no point in all this. That is why, in general, the pound sterling continues to decline with purely technical corrections. On the second trading day of the week, neither in the States nor in the UK are any important fundamental reports scheduled. The technical picture is clearly on the side of the American currency, so it is more preferable to continue to reduce the pair.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.2756

S2 - 1.2695

S3 - 1.2634

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.2817

R2 - 1.2878

R3 - 1.2939

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD continues to move down. Therefore, it is now recommended to continue trading for a fall with targets of 1.2756 and 1.2695. The Heikin Ashi indicator will show the beginning of a new upward correction by turning to the top.

Long positions are currently not relevant, since all indicators signal a downward movement, and the pound has not had fundamental support for a long time. Fixing the pair above the MA allows considering the buy positions with the target of 1.2878 in small lots.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. November 27th. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Euro currency still does not find grounds for growth

4-hour timeframe

analytics5bfcee60bf2aa.png

Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -87.8267

The currency pair EUR / USD on Tuesday, November 27, corrected to the moving average line once again and resumed the downward movement. In general, on the first trading day of the week, a multidirectional movement was observed. There are several important points to note that are very remarkable for the current state of affairs. First, the Italian government, after threats from the European Union, to apply penalties due to the non-fulfillment of agreements on the allowable budget deficit decided to revise the budget for 2019. Italy wants to reduce the deficit to 2%, which is still much higher than the EU's required 0.8%. Thus, on the one hand, the country makes a compromise, on the other, this may not be enough. However, the euro against the background of this news almost did not grow. Secondly, the approval of all EU leaders of a document on Brexit also remained practically without attention from market participants. These two points indicate that traders are not ready to buy Euro currency without good and real fundamental reasons, they are not ready to buy rumors and hints in a new portion. Thus, despite occasional corrections on the pair, the downtrend is preserved and visible to the naked eye. To refract, it will require either serious fundamental reasons or the banal satiation of the market with US currency. Yet forever the US dollar cannot go up.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1292

S2 - 1.1230

S3 - 1.1169

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1353

R2 - 1.1414

R3 - 1.1475

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair has resumed its downward movement. Thus, short positions with the target of 1.1292 are relevant now. Turning the Heikin Ashi indicator up will serve as a signal for manual reduction of sell orders.

Long positions with a target of 1.1414 will become relevant not earlier than the next pair of moving averages. However, even in this case, you should not immediately count on the formation of an uptrend, as the foundation is clearly not on the side of the European currency.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR: Rumors about a change in the budget of Italy did not help the euro much. Trump returned to the issue of trade relations

The euphoria about the rumors that the government of Italy is discussing the option of reducing the target budget quickly disappeared and the euro ended yesterday at the European session, resulted in profit taking and then a new downward wave in risky assets.

American President Donald Trump also added problems, who in an interview stated that he intends to increase duties on Chinese goods worth more than $ 200 billion to 25%. Trump also noted that he would no longer listen to Beijing's request to refrain from such an increase.

Such statements a few days before the meeting with the Chinese leader forced many investors to reconsider their hopes related to the possibility of concluding a trade agreement, or with the suspension of this agreement for a "pause", as was the case with the European Union.

Trump said that if he does not agree with China, he will add another $ 267 billion in fees, which means that goods for that amount will be subject to duties of 10% or 25%.

As I noted above, the euro rose slightly yesterday on reports that the Italian government is discussing the possibility of reducing the target budget deficit for 2019 from 2.4% to 2% -2.1% of GDP. However, these messages only reduced the growth of the yield of Italian government bonds but did not lead to significant changes in the Forex market.

A number of experts note that even if Italy comes to its senses and changes the budget deficit for 2019, this will not regain lost confidence of investors and European partners, which will negatively affect the further development of the economy and trade relations.

Yesterday's sentiment data in German companies had a negative impact on the market. As indicated in the report of the Institute Ifo, the business climate index dropped to 102.0 points in November from 102.9 points in October, while economists had expected the index to be 102.3 points in November.

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The speech of the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi was ignored by the market. On the one hand, this is good, but on the other hand, a number of questions concerning measures in the event of a more serious slowdown in economic growth in the eurozone, remained unanswered. Draghi once again signaled that the Central Bank will begin to curtail in December the asset purchase program, amounting to 2.6 trillion euros. He also noted that his concerns about the recent slowdown in the eurozone economy have declined. In his opinion, the slowdown in economic growth is temporary.

The ECB Governor expects the incoming data to confirm the mid-term forecasts of economists made on inflation, which will confirm the correctness of the decision to complete the purchase of assets in December 2018.

In the afternoon, US data contributed to the strengthening of the US dollar.

According to the report, the Chicago national activity index in October 2018 increased compared with the previous month due to an improvement in the employment situation. Thus, the national activity index in October was 0.24 points versus 0.14 points in September.

But the total business activity in the area of responsibility of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in November was below forecasts.

According to the data, the Fed-Dallas business activity index in November 2018 was 17.6 points while economists had expected the index to be 25 points in November.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, it is likely that the breakdown of support for 1.1325 will lead to the resumption of the downward trend with the renewal of the 1.1290 and 1.1260 minimums. However, the larger target for bears is the lows of 1.1220 and 1.1180.

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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs for November 27

Dear colleagues.

For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, we expect a further downward movement after the breakdown of 1.1315. For the Pound / Dollar currency pair, we should continue moving upwards after the breakdown of 1.2886 and the level of 1.2792 is the key support. For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, the price is in a correction from the downward pattern on November 13, and we have not yet observed pronounced initial conditions for the top. For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, we expect a movement to the level of 113.82 and the level of 113.19 is the key support. For the currency pair Euro / Yen, the price issued a small potential for the top of November 23. For the Pound / Yen currency pair, we are following the formation of the local potential for the upward movement of November 20 and the development of which is expected after the breakdown of 145.86.

Forecast for November 27:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1430, 1.1403, 1.1372, 1.1352, 1.1315, 1.1289, 1.1271 and 1.1244. Here, we continue to follow the downward structure of November 20. The downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.1315. In this case, the goal is 1.1289 and in the range of 1.1289 - 1.1271 is the price consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.1244, from which we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.1352 - 1.1372 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.1403 and this level is the key support for the downward structure. Its breakdown will have to form the initial conditions for the upward cycle. Here, the potential target is 1.1430.

The main trend is the downward cycle of November 20.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1374 Take profit: 1.1401

Buy 1.1405 Take profit: 1.1430

Sell: 1.1312 Take profit: 1.1290

Sell: 1.1270 Take profit: 1.1245

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For the Pound / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2989, 1.2936, 1.2886, 1.2827, 1.2792, 1.2792, 1.2729, 1.2691 and 1.2603. Here, the price forms a local structure for the top of November 21. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.2886. In this case, the target is 1.2936. The potential value for the uptrend, for now, is considered the level of 1.2989, before which we expect pronounced initial conditions.

The range of 1.2827 - 1.2792 is the key support for the top. Its price passage will have to develop a downward trend. Here, the first goal is 1.2729 and in the range of 1.2729 - 1.2691 is the price consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.2603.

The main trend is the local rising structure of November 21.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2888 Take profit: 1.2934

Buy: 1.2937 Take profit: 1.2986

Sell: 1.2825 Take profit: 1.2793

Sell: 1.2790 Take profit: 1.2730

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For the Dollar / Franc currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0013, 0.9985, 0.9959, 0.9943, 0.9923, 0.9909 and 0.9885. Here, the price is in the correction of the downward structure of November 13. The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.9923 - 0.9909 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a movement to the potential target of 0.9885, upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the top.

The level of 0.9985 is the key support for the downward structure. Its breakdown will lead to a short-term uptrend. Here, the goal is 1.0013, up to this level, we expect registration of the expressed initial conditions for the upward cycle.

The main trend is the downward cycle of November 13, the stage of prolonged correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9985 Take profit: 1.0010

Buy: Take profit:

Sell: 0.9923 Take profit: 0.9910

Sell: 0.9907 Take profit: 0.9887

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For the Dollar / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 114.34, 114.02, 113.82, 113.42, 113.19, 112.90 and 112.50. Here, we continue to monitor the formation of potential for the top of November 20. The short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 113.82 - 114.02 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to the movement to the potential level of 114.34, from which we expect a downward rollback.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 113.42 - 113.19 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 112.90 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend: the rising structure of November 20.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 113.82 Take profit: 114.00

Buy: 114.05 Take profit: 114.30

Sell: 113.40 Take profit: 113.20

Sell: 113.18 Take profit: 112.92

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For the Canadian dollar / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3389, 1.3361, 1.3317, 1.3268, 1.3243, 1.3181, 1.3142 and 1.3116. Here, the price is in deep correction from the local ascending structure on November 16 and has issued a pronounced potential for the downward movement of November 20. The development of the downward structure is expected after the breakdown of 1.3181. Here, the first target is 1.3142. For now, the potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.3116, after reaching which we expect consolidation.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.3243 - 1.3268 and the breakdown of the latter value will have to develop an upward trend. In this case, the first target is 1.3317 and this level is the key resistance for the subsequent development of the ascending structure on the H1 scale.

The main trend is the local cycle of November 16, the formation of the potential for the downward movement of November 20.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3243 Take profit: 1.3265

Buy: 1.3272 Take profit: 1.3312

Sell: 1.3180 Take profit: 1.3145

Sell: 1.3138 Take profit: 1.3118

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For the Australian dollar / dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.7287, 0.7254, 0.7194, 0.7169, 0.7148 and 0.7095. Here, we are following the formation of the potential for the downward cycle of November 16. At the moment, the price is close to the key support of 0.7287. A downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 0.7194. In this case, the target is 0.7169 and in the range of 0.7169 - 0.7148 is the price consolidation. The breakdown of the level of 0.7148 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the potential target is 0.7095, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The breakdown of the level of 0.7290 will lead to the formation of an ascending structure. In this case, the first potential target is 0.7337.

The main trend is the formation of the downward potential of November 16.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7295 Take profit: 0.7330

Buy: 0.7256 Take profit: 0.7285

Sell: 0.7192 Take profit: 0.7170

Sell: 0.7144 Take profit: 0.7100

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For the Euro / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 129.63, 129.17, 129.00, 128.45, 128.14 and 127.76. Here, we are following the formation of the potential for the top of November 23. The movement upwards is expected after the price passes the range of 129.00 - 129.17. In this case, the first potential target is 129.63.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 128.45 - 128.14 and the breakdown of the latter value will have to form the downward structure from November 23. Here, the goal is 127.76.

The main trend is the formation of potential for the top of November 23.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 129.20 Take profit: 129.60

Buy: Take profit:

Sell: 128.45 Take profit: 128.18

Sell: 128.10 Take profit: 127.85

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For the Pound / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 147.81, 147.32, 146.59, 146.32, 145.86, 144.91, 144.43 and 143.99. Here, we are following the formation of the local ascending structure from November 20. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 145.86. In this case, the target is 146.32 and consolidation is near this level. Passing the price of the range of 146.32 - 146.59 will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the goal is 147.32. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 147.81, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 144.91 - 144.43 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to the cancellation of the ascending structure of November 20. In this case, the first potential target is 143.99.

The main trend is the formation of potential for the top of November 20.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 145.88 Take profit: 146.30

Buy: 146.65 Take profit: 147.30

Sell: 144.90 Take profit: 144.55

Sell: 144.40 Take profit: 144.00

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of the divergence of EUR / USD on November 27th. Stop near 1.13 and further down?

4h

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The EUR / USD currency pair, after rebounding from the correction level of 76.4% - 1.1423, continues the process of falling in the direction of the corrective level of 100.0% - 1.1303. The end of the pair on November 27 from the Fibo level of 100.0% will allow traders to count on a turn in favor of the European currency and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 76.4%. There are no emerging divergences today. Fixing quotes under the Fibo level of 100.0% will increase the chances of the pair to continue falling towards the next correction level of 127.2% - 1.1162.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from August 15, 2018, and September 24, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the EUR / USD pair continues to fall in the direction of the correction level of 127.2% - 1.1285, after the formation of a new bearish divergence in the CCI indicator. Rebounding the pair from the Fibo level of 127.2% will make it possible to expect a turn in favor of the EU currency and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1553. Fixing the rate below the Fibo level of 127.2% will work in favor of a further fall in the direction of the correctional level of 161.8% - 1.0941.

The Fib net is built on extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

You can make purchases of the EUR / USD currency pair with a target of 1.1423 and a Stop Loss order under the Fibo level of 100.0% if the pair bounces off the level of 1.1303.

New sales of the EUR / USD pair will be possible with the goal of 1.1162 with a Stop Loss order above the Fibo level of 100.0%, if the pair closes below the level of 1.1303.

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Euro and pound under pressure

On Monday, markets traded mainly in the green zone, considering again the positive results of the EU summit and the Brexit compromise. On Tuesday, positive will also prevail but it is unlikely to be protracted. Escape from risk is gradually becoming the dominant idea in the markets since the threat of a slowdown in the global economy, including the threat of recession in the United States, has fundamental grounds.

There is a direct link between the size of the monetary base and the dollar index where more money, the weaker the dollar. At the end of 2016, the reduction in the monetary base which was largely technical in nature led to a sharp strengthening of the dollar and slight panic on the stock exchanges but then the money supply decreased and the dollar weakened against the euro to 1.25.

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Now, the situation is completely different. The Fed reduces the balance which means that the monetary base will automatically decline and in turn will lead to strong demand for the dollar. The EUR/USD pair should objectively go down and it would be logical if it were not for two circumstances.

Firstly, inflation is going down, which indicates a drop in consumer demand. This factor manifests itself much stronger than expected, which is impossible to ignore. The Fed simply dissolve arguments for further rate increases. Secondly, Trump's tax reform did not produce the expected effect. There was no repatriation of capital either, while foreign investors are leaving the government bond market and the stock market. The trade balance is still terrible and the budget deficit is growing faster than planned. Moreover, the US economy just can not stand a strong dollar having all the chances to slide into recession in a year.

The way out would be the further development of reforms and the creation of extremely favorable conditions for investors, which would contribute to the revival in the real sector. However, after the elections to the Congress, the Republicans lost control of one of the chambers and now, the chances of developing reforms are vanishingly small.

Thus, the Fed faces a dilemma that is unclear how to solve. Most likely, the December meeting will have to admit that the pause in the rate hike cycle may come earlier than planned. These factors are already being recognized by the market and the dollar is likely to be preparing for a bearish reversal.

Eurozone

The business climate in Germany is deteriorating according to the results of research in November, which is fully consistent with similar studies by Markit and the European Commission. All subindexes have declined with a slowdown in production, the services sector, trade, a strong minus in the construction sector.

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The euro looks weak in the short term because the growth in demand for defensive assets is objectively in favor of the dollar but the euro looks weak in the long term. The ECB is trying with all to smooth out the negative effect of the completion of the asset repurchase program but rather awkwardly. Yesterday's speeches by four members of the ECB led by Draghi went like a blueprint and all four refused to discuss economic growth forecasts in their speeches.

On Friday, the preliminary data on inflation in the Eurozone for November will be published. There are no other important releases during the week and markets will be focused on the expectations of the G20 summit. The EUR/USD pair is under pressure and the descending channel is steady. Meanwhile, the bears will strive to test the recent minimum of 1.1214 and the chances of breaking this support are high.

Great Britain

News from the UK is currently turning into pure arithmetic. The only strong driver that can influence the pound is to count the supporters and opponents of the signed agreement in parliament. Ninety-five conservative deputies said they would vote against the deal, and May's position was deteriorating. The public debates will start on December 4 while voting will take place on December 11, respectively. Any statements from parliamentarians will move the pound in one direction or another.

Technically, the pound is still in the side channel and support levels are 1.2693 and 1.2660 but the bears are activated and the test of supports is almost a foregone conclusion. If they do not stand, the price will continue to move down, but the marked fall will only be possible if it is clear that the agreement on Brexit in parliament will be blocked.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for November 27, 2018

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Overview:

Pivot: 1.2890.

The GBP/USD pair fell from the level of 1.2890 towards 1.2780. Now, the price is set at 1.2850. On the H1 chart, the resistance is seen at the levels of 1.2890 and 1.3001. Volatility is very high for that the GBP/USD pair is still expected to be moving between 1.2829 and 1.2725 in coming hours. In the short term, we expect the GBP/USD pair to continue to trade in a bullish trend from the new support level of 1.2725 to form a bullish channel. Also, it should be noted that major resistance is seen at 1.2829, while immediate resistance is found at 1.2829. According to the previous events, the pair is likely to move from 1.2725 towards 1.2829 and 1.2890 as targets. In the H4 time frame: However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 1.2890, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the level of 1.2890. So, the market will decline further to 1.2725 in order to return to the daily support. Moreover, a breakout of that target will move the pair further downwards to 1.2639.

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Bitcoin analysis for November 27, 2018

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Trading recommendations:

According to the H1 time - frame, I found that price is trading inside of the downward channel, which is a sign that sellers are in control. I also found a broken intraday support trendline, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $3.454 and at the price of $3.253.

Support/Resistance

$3.820 – Intraday resistance

$3.454– Intraday support

$3.454 – Objective target 1

$3.253 – Objective target 2

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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GBP/USD analysis for November 27, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.2754. According to the H1 time – frame, I have found the breakout of the bearish flag and a potential end of the upward correction, which is a sign that sellers are in control. The short – term trend is bearish. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.2696 and at the price of 1.2660.

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EUR/USD analysis for November 27, 2018

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 1.1304. According to the H1 time – frame, I have found a broken bearish flag in the background, which is a sign of weakness. Most recently, I found the breakout of the short – term head and shoulders (bearish pattern), which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities and go with the direction of the short – term trend. The downward target is set at the price of 1.1215.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for November 27, 2018

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Overview:

The NZD/USD pair will continue rising from the area of 0.6791 - 0.6744 today. So, the support is found at the level of 0.6791, which represents the 50% Fibonacci retracement level in the H1 time frame. Since the trend is above the 50% Fibonacci level, the market is still in an uptrend. Therefore, the NZD/USD pair is continuing with a bullish trend from the new support of 0.6791. The current price is set at the level of 0.6791 that acts as a daily pivot point seen at 0.6791 also. Equally important, the price is in a bullish channel. According to the previous events, we expect the NZD/USD pair to move between 0.6791 and 0.6840. Therefore, strong support will be formed at the level of 0.6791 providing a clear signal to buy with the targets seen at 0.6840. If the trend breaks the support at 0.6730 (first resistance), the pair will move upwards continuing the development of the bullish trend to the level 0.6881 in order to test the double top. In the same time frame, support is seen at the levels of 0.6791 and 0.6744. The stop loss should always be taken into account for that it will be reasonable to set your stop loss at the level of 0.6744.

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EUR / USD: plan for the European session on November 27. The euro is declining due to the escalation of China's conflict

Yesterday's speech by the ECB President Mario Draghi did not help the euro buyers, but regular statements from the US President to China led to a decline in the pair. At the moment, it is best to count on long positions after the formation of a false breakdown in the support area of 1.1328 or on a rebound from the new minimum of 1.1328. The main task of buyers EUR / USD will be the return and consolidation above 1.1374 resistance, which will lead to the formation of an uptrend in the area of 1.1417, where I recommend to take profits.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

The breakthrough of the support level of 1.1328 will be a signal to open short positions in euro in order to update the lows of 1.1296 and 1.1262, where I recommend taking profits. A break of 1.1328 will also lead to the continuation of the formation of a downtrend in EUR / USD. If the pair grows in the first half of the day, sales can be considered to rebound from a major resistance of 1.1374. The complication of US trade relations with China may push the euro down even more.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted below the 30- and 50-day moving averages, which indicates the continuation of the formation of a downtrend.

Bollinger bands

If the pair declines in the first half of the day, the lower limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.1315 may provide support. The resistance will be the upper limit in the area of 1.1358, from which you can see the euro for sale.

More details about the forecast can be found in the video review.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Weak statistics from the US supports the dollar

On Monday, optimism reigned in the markets. This was supported by rising expectations that the Fed would pause raising interests by next year. Furthermore, investors are hoping that Washington and Beijing will be having an agreement on customs duties which might be discussed at the G20 summit.

Shares of retailers, which rose in the wake of sales last week, was supported by stock markets. However, the main beneficiaries were securities of companies in the financial sector, which grew quite well on a wave of increased hopes in which the Fed could pause at an unhurried rate of interest rates. On the other hand, the local growth in demand for risky assets can be explained by the trivial closure of short positions. There are warming expectations that the USA and China will be able to agree on customs duties at the G20 summit.

The US dollar on Monday rose against major currencies, with the exception of the New Zealand, supported by the demand for dollar assets.The single European currency also came under pressure against the background of the ECB President's comment, M. Draghi, who, despite the statement that the regulator would stop the quantitative easing program by the end of the year, was traditionally careful, making it clear that further actions by the bank would depend from the situation in the economy. These words, as well as problems with the adoption of the budget of Italy, put pressure on the euro.

The British pound has been stabilized in Brexit. It seems that the situation remains extremely uncertain , which does not allow investors to be active, since the result can both play in favor of sterling and, on the contrary, have a negative impact on it. While the markets are hoping that a decision will be made. In this case, certainty can support the local exchange rate of the British currency.

Today, consumer confidence index data from the Conference Board will be published. A decline is expected to 135.9 points against 137.9 points. If the decline is more noticeable, this may cause a new wave of "optimism" in the US stock market and strengthen investors in the thought that the Fed will necessarily pause in raising interest rates next year. On this wave, the dollar may again get support due to the growing demand for dollar assets.

Forecast of the day:

The USDJPY pair is trading above the 113.30 mark, continuing to remain in the local side, but at the same time in a short-term uptrend. It can be assumed that there will not be any specific dynamics before the G20 summit results. From a technical point of view, the pair continues to balance. If the price holds above the level of 113.40, it may rise to 114.00, but a decline below this mark will lead to its fall to 113.00.

The pair USDCAD is trading below 1.3260. It is also influenced by the USDJPY pair. In addition, it should be borne in mind that if oil prices resume falling, it will push the pair up and after breaking through 1.3260 it may rise to 1.3300. The continuation of a local increase in oil prices will put pressure on the pair, and it may fall to 1.3200-10.

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Simplified wave analysis USD / CHF for the week of November 27

Wave pattern graphics H4:

The last wave area of the daily scale from February forms an upward wave zigzag. Wave H4 took the place of correction in it (B).

Wave pattern graphics H1:

The wave is rising, starting from September 21. It completes the larger wave model. In the last 2 months, a correction of the wrong type is formed within the framework of the structure.

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Wave pattern graphics M15:

The descending section of November 13 completes the correctional wave of the older TF (M30). The structure lacks the final part (C).

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Recommended trading strategy:

Conditions for shopping have not yet been created. It is necessary to wait for the completion of the current decline. In the framework of the intersessional trade, short-term sales are possible.

Resistance zones:

- 1.0000 / 1.0050

Support areas:

- 0.9870 / 0.9820

Explanations to the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A - B - C). For the analysis, 3 main TFs are used. Incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal.

The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of GBP / USD Divergences for November 27th. Pound for the second time stopped at about 1.28.

4h

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The GBP / USD pair on the 4-hour chart completed an unsuccessful attempt to close under the correction level of 76.4% - 1.2812 rollback and return to this level. Moreover, if a new attempt to close under this level also fails, the pair will make a new turn in favor of the British currency, then the traders will be able to expect some growth in the direction of the correctional level 61.8% - 1.2904. On the other hand, fixing quotations under the Fibo level of 76.4% will work in favor of continuing to fall in the direction of the next level of correction 100.0% - 1.2662.

The Fibo grid was built according to extremums from August 15, 2018 and September 20, 2018.

1h

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On the hourly chart, the pair returned to the correctional level of 76.4% - 1.2809. Rebounding the course of the pair from this level will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the pound sterling and some growth in the direction of the Fibo level 61.8% - 1.2878. Furthermore, overlapping divergences on November 27th are not observed in any indicator. Fixing the pair under the correction level of 76.4% will make it possible to expect a further fall in the direction of the next Fib level 100.0% - 1.2696.

The Fib net is built on extremes from October 30, 2018 and November 7, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

New purchases of the GBP / USD pair can be made with a target of 1.2878 and a Stop Loss order under the correction level of 76.4% if the pair bounces off the 1.2809 level (hourly chart).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD Forecast for November 27, 2018

GBP / USD

Investors were once again worried about Brexit tensions in the English parliament. Yesterday, more than 90 deputies from the Conservative Party did speak out against the "May agreement". Theresa May said that she is currently working in this direction. And even so, she is going to hold talks with Labor leader Jeremy Corbin.

Despite the fact that this morning, the price is at the same level as it was last Monday morning. As reflected on the Krusenstern line for the second time, the price increased during the day. This phenomenon made the situation to become a little more bearish, which increased resistance. The market development outlook remains the same - with a break from the nearest trend line of the price channel on the daily chart (1.2775). Meanwhile, the pound will continue to decline to the next line by 1.2558. Based on our expectations: Even if the parliament accepts the "May agreement", the price will still be going to have time to reach 250 points.

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BITCOIN Analysis for November 27, 2018

Bitcoin has been quite volatile and corrective recently, drifting lower towards $3,500-50 support area. The price is being held by the dynamic level of Tenkan line as resistance where the Kumo Cloud has been quite impressive keeping the price lower in the process. The price is currently sinking lower amid impulsive pressure which is expected to lead the price towards $3,550 area in the coming days from where certain pullbacks are expected before the price pushes much lower in the future. As the price remains below $5,000 with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

SUPPORT: 3,000, 3,500-50

RESISTANCE: 4,000, 4,500, 5,000

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for November 27, 2018

EUR/JPY remains inside a trading range between 127.50 to 129.50. The pair is trading in the indecisive manner, being volatile for a few days in a row. Both currencies in the pair are struggling to gain momentum due to downbeat fundamentals, published recently that confuses the market sentiment.

The biggest challenge in front of EUR recently is taly's 2019 budget deficit which, if not settled in the coming days, may lead to severe weakness of the eurozone's economy. Though recently ECB President Draghi spoke about a slowdown in the eurozone's economy which is quite normal from his viewpoint. He expects slower but consistent inflation acceleration, leading to a better economy structure in the future. Tomorrow M3 Money Supply report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 3.5%, Private Loans to increase to 3.2% from the previous value of 3.1%, and German GfK Consumer Climate is expected to have a slight decrease to 10.5 from the previous figure of 10.6. Moreover, the eurozone is also worried about Brexit which is assumed to deal a blow to the European economy if UK Prime Minister Theresa May's proposals are accepted.

On the JPY side, BOJ has been quite cautious about the recent Monetary Policy due to recent troubles in the financial sector. Bank of Japan's Governor Kuroda expressed confidence about the balance sheet shrinkage without disruption of the markets. He also hinted the prospects of abandoning the ultra-loose monetary policy. Though BOJ is currently undergoing certain challenges, the regulator is optimistic about stable growth in the future. Today Japan's SPPI report was published with an increase to 1.3% from the previous value of 1.1% which was expected to be at 1.2% and BOJ Core CPI also increased to 0.6% which was expected to be unchanged at 0.5%. Moreover, in the coming days Japan's Retail Sales report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 2.7% from the previous value of 2.2%.

Meanwhile, JPY is quite solid ahead of upcoming economic reports and development plans from BOJ despite some headwinds. Though EUR has been quite positive with the recent gains, sustainability is not quite assured as JPY performed quite well on the back of the economic reports published today. This is keeping buyers under pressure. To sum up, further indecisive momentum is expected in the pair until the eurozone or Japan comes up with better reports to enable the market to express particular sentiment.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has been quite impulsive with bullish gains yesterday after impulsive bearish pressure earlier while currently the price is being held by the dynamic level of 20 EMA as resistance inside the corrective range of 127.50-129.50 area. In the meantime, a breakout above 129.50 or below 127.50 with a daily close is required to clear up future price actions. Nevertheless, the price is expected to move lower as it remains below 129.50 area with a daily close with a target towards 126.50 support area.

SUPPORT: 126.50, 127.50

RESISTANCE: 129.50, 130.00

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review for November 26, 2018 for the pair GBP / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Tuesday, the price will move down, with the first target 1.2760 - the support line (red bold line). Breaking through is also unlikely. Mostly, from this level there will be a rollback up.

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - neutral;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis is neutral;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

There is a downward move with the price , with the first target 1.2760 - the support line (red bold line). More so, breaking through is unlikely. And from this level, there will be a rollback up.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for USD / JPY on November 27, 2018

USD / JPY

The Japanese yen met our expectations, and the price began to implement the main scenario. On Monday, the yen entrenched above the Krusenstern trend line on the four-hour chart. As it was fixed above, the path to the linear trend line of the price channel with the target of 115.10 is now open. On a daily scale, the price went above the balance line and Krusenstern. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator moved to the growth zone (above the zero line).

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com