Indicator analysis: Daily review on GBP/USD on February 6, 2020

The pair moved down on Wednesday and re-tested the support line 1.2972, presented in a red bold line, however, the price was not able to break this line. Strong calendar news not expected today. From the support line 1.2981, presented in a red bold line, an upward movement is possible.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

From the support line 1.2981, presented in a red dashed line, it is possible to move up with the first target 1.3044, the pullback level of 38.2% presented in a red dashed line. If this level is reached, the target for the continuation of upward movement is 1.3076, the pullback level of 50.0% presented in a red dashed line.

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - neutral;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- Weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

Today, the price may start to move up.

An unlikely, but quite possible scenario is from the support line 1.2981, presented in a red bold line, work down with the target 1.2920, the pullback level of 38.2% presented in a yellow dashed line.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for February 6, 2020

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GBP/JPY remains firmly at short-term important resistance of 143.35 (the high was seen at 143.37). Why did the pair make a premature low in wave iv been seen at 140.80? We need more proof to conclude if this is the case and the proof of a break above 143.37. As long as this resistance is able to cap the upside, the outlook will remain bearish for a final push lower through support at 140.80 for a dip towards 139.24 and maybe even closer to 137.86 to complete wave iv.

If, however resistance at 143.37 gives away, then we must conclude that a premature bottom has been found for wave iv and wave v to above 147.95 is developing.

R3: 143.37

R2: 143.02

R1: 142.80

Pivot: 142.56

S1: 142.38

S2: 142.21

S3: 142.03

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 143.35 was hit for a minor profit of 60 pips. We will re-sell GBP at 142.80 with a stop+revers at 143.40.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 06/02/2020:

Technical Market Overview:

The EUR/USD pair has almost hit the key technical support located at the level of 1.0990 as the lows during the move down was made at the level of 1.0993. The bounce is shallow so far, so the downtrend continuation might resume any time soon. The weak and negative technical resistance together with weak stochastic oscillator support the near-term bearish outlook. The next target for bears is then seen at the level of 1.0940, but the key long term technical support is still located at the level of 1.0849.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1243

WR2 - 1.1163

WR1 - 1.1138

Weekly Pivot - 1.1062

WS1 - 1.1035

WS2 - 1.0960

WS3 - 1.0930

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is the same as it was for recent months: trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is terminated or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larger timeframes like weekly, which indicates a possible downtrend termination soon. The key short-term levels are technical support at the level of 1.0981 and the technical resistance at the level of 1.1267.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD is preparing for the breakdown; Senate acquitted Trump

Good afternoon, dear traders! I present to your attention an analysis of the EUR/USD pair.

So, according to our yesterday's recommendation to sell the pair - the instrument ended the day with a good decline, stopping at two levels which were important for the buyers. Let's look at them:

analytics5e3bb795f3e48.png

The first level is a two-week low (as well as the minimum of January) and is at a price of 1.099. The second one is more serious which is the low of November last year at a price of 1.098. At the same time, stop orders of buyers of large periods are beyond these levels. The triggering of their stops will lead to a collapse of the price in the zone of these levels, causing the so-called "slippage".

Yesterday, the US currency strengthened on all fronts and the SnP500 wide market index amid news that the Senate acquitted Trump in the impeachment case. Against this background, I recommend developing towards strengthening the American currency. For EUR/USD pair, this will be expressed in a depreciation of the currency pair and with a high probability, it will lead to a breakdown of the levels of 1.099 and 1.098. After breakdowns, I recommend closing short positions and taking profits.

Have a successful trading and control the risks!

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Indicator analysis: Daily review on EUR/USD on February 6, 2020

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

A downward movement is possible today with the target of 1.0967, the support line for the downward channel presented in a red bold line. Upon reaching this level, it is possible to work upward with the target of 1.0986, the retracement level of 14.6% presented in a blue dashed line.

analytics5e3bb1fb201e7.png

Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- Weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

A continuation of the downward movement is expected today with the target of 1.0967, the support line for the downward channel presented in a red bold line.

An unlikely but possible scenario is from the support line of the downward channel equivalent 1.0967, presented in a red bold line, the price will go down to the target level of 161.8% equivalent to 1.0928, presented in a red dashed line.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for February 6 - 2020

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The correction in wave iv hit 121.15. We are now looking for a break below minor support at 120.63 and more importantly, a break below support at 120.43. It will indicate that wave v is heading down to the ideal target-zone between 118.85 - 119.24.

If the pair fails to hold below short-term key-resistance at 121.26, it will decrease. Wave 2 has already tested 119.79 and wave 3 has started a rally above 122.88.

R3: 121.75

R2: 121.57

R1: 121.26

Pivot: 120.86

S1: 120.63

S2: 120.43

S3: 120.26

Trading recommendation:

We are short EUR from 120.40 with our stop placed at 121.26

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. February 6. Boris Johnson's hopes for free trade agreements are not destined to come true?

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -83.0280

The GBP/USD currency pair is trying to resume its downward movement on February 6 after a slight upward correction to the moving average line. Traders failed to gain a foothold above the moving average, but the pair is also supported from below by the important line of 1.2978, which has not allowed quotes below it 7 times already. Thus, formally, there is now a downward trend, but its development is in doubt due to the level of 1.2978. The pound/dollar pair failed to gain a foothold above the moving average, so the bulls remain in a weak position. Now the reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator to the top will officially confirm another unsuccessful attempt to break through the Murray level of "1/8" - 1.2970. In fact, the quotes are now between the level of 1.2978 and 1.3050 (the zone where the moving average line is currently located), that is, in a very narrow range. Accordingly, it will be better to buy the pair after overcoming the moving average and sell it after confidently overcoming the levels of 1.2978 and 1.2970.

Meanwhile, the entire currency community continues to discuss the UK's prospects for 2020. And more experts are beginning to point out that Boris Johnson's hopes for two free trade agreements are unlikely to come true. The first agreement – an agreement with the European Union – is already being questioned because of the position of the British Prime Minister himself, who, acting according to Trump's methods, wants to get an agreement that will be beneficial to Britain. European Union officials, Ursula von der Leyen and Michel Barnier have already warned London that, firstly, it took at least 7-8 years to reach a free trade agreement with Canada or Australia, and, secondly, London will not receive all the preferences of membership in the EU, being outside of it. Boris Johnson himself promises to "knock out" a good deal for the Kingdom. The most interesting thing is that such a mood of the Prime Minister scares only entrepreneurs and businesses in the UK itself, who have been living like a "powder keg" in the last three years. At the same time, Boris Johnson believes that it is the EU that wants to disrupt the signing of the agreement by changing the terms of the agreements reached on the "deal" in the autumn of 2019. But does Johnson have strong arguments in negotiations with Brussels? It should be understood that half of all goods produced in the UK are now exported to the EU. Moreover, the EU is a single market with 450 million consumers; the loss of one country will not be felt as strongly by Europe as the loss of UK access to the single market without duties and quotas. Moreover, the UK has not conducted any negotiations for more than 40 years. The negotiation team simply does not have the necessary experience. In general, now we can only say that Johnson's "hard" position towards the EU looks a little ridiculous and absurd. The world community does not understand why the British Prime Minister wants to get a favorable agreement for himself, without taking into account the position of Brussels?

But the most interesting thing is the negotiations on a free trade agreement with America. Donald Trump has repeatedly stated that he is ready to sign a "huge trade agreement" with "his friend" Johnson. However, as many experts note, the American President can promise and wish anything in words, but when it comes to official negotiations, his position can change dramatically. It is unlikely that the United States will conclude a deal that is not profitable for itself. Moreover, I wonder what position Johnson will take in negotiations with Trump? It is unlikely that he will behave like Trump in negotiations with Trump. Thus, according to most experts, Johnson will not get either one or a second deal during 2020. Most likely, the negotiations will be delayed for a longer period than 10-11 months. And the British economy will continue to shrink and slow down due to all the reasons that Brexit itself creates and the lack of trade agreements. Accordingly, the pound will continue to fall in the long term.

Thus, over the next months, we still expect to overcome the level of 1.2978 and resume the downward trend. There are almost no fundamental factors that could support the pound. The latest macroeconomic reports from the UK give hope for some recovery in the Foggy Albion economy, but even if this is the case, it is unlikely that the growth rate will be higher than in the States. This means that the balance of power between the US and British currencies will still remain on the side of the former.

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The average volatility of the pound/dollar pair has increased to 139 points over the past 5 days. According to the current level of volatility, the working channel on February 6 will be limited to the levels of 1.2858 and 1.3136. The continuation of the downward movement would be very logical, but, as we have already said, there is a very strong level of support from below. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator to the top will indicate a new round of corrective movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.3000

S2 - 1.2970

S3 - 1.2939

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.3031

R2 - 1.3062

R3 - 1.3092

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair started a new round of downward movement after rebounding from the moving average. Thus, traders are now recommended to sell the pound with the targets of 1.2939 and 1.2909 before the new reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator up. It is recommended to return to buying the British currency after the pair reverses above the moving average line with the first targets of 1.3092 and 1.3123.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustrations:

The highest linear regression channel is the blue unidirectional lines.

The lowest linear regression channel is the purple unidirectional lines.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

Possible price movements:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/JPY will test the nearest Daily Orderblock For today FEB 06, 2020

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The daily orderblock at 110.08 seems to be something like a magnet area for the USD/JPY pair. The pair may climb up as long it does not break out bellow the 4 hour chart breaker level at 109.32. The USD/JPY pair can test the weekly buy side liquidity at 110.30. The overall bias for USD/JPY is bullish.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD Projection HOD/LOD For FEB 06, 2020

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Today's high (HOD) and low (LOD) from the Central Bank Dealer Range (CBDR) usually form at STDV 2-STDV 4 in the normal condition market but sometimes can reach to the STDV 5-STDV 6. Here's for the today's level:

STDV 10 - 1.3180.

STDV 9 - 1.3162.

STDV 8 - 1.3144.

STDV 7 - 1.3126.

STDV 6 - 1.3108.

STDV 5 - 1.3090.

STDV 4 - 1.3072.

STDV 3 - 1.3054.

STDV 2 - 1.3036.

STDV 1 - 1.3018.

CBDR - 1.3000.

==================

CBDR - 1.2982.

STDV 1 - 1.2964.

STDV 2 - 1.2946.

STDV 3 - 1.2928.

STDV 4 - 1.2910.

STDV 5 - 1.2892.

STDV 6 - 1.2874.

STDV 7 - 1.2856.

STDV 8 - 1.2838.

STDV 9 - 1.2820.

STDV 10 - 1.2802.

Pay attention to the level between today and the previous range such as 1.2856, 1.2874, 1.3000, 1.3018, & 1.3162 as it can be a potential turning point.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. February 6. ECB President Christine Lagarde fears the spread of the

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -146.5096

The third trading day of the week for the EUR/USD pair ended with the resumption of the downward movement. The macroeconomic background of the environment contributed to this development since the data from the European Union was not impressive and the data from overseas was very strong. Thus, it is quite logical that the euro/dollar pair resumed its downward movement, although it may again roll back from the area of lows and start moving up again. The fact is that describing the "paradoxical situation", we regularly say that the bears are simply afraid to continue selling the euro currency at levels below the mark of $1.10. However, in addition to the simple fear of trading lower, regular rebounds from this area can also be associated with pending purchase orders placed in this area. Thus, on Thursday, February 6, we can already witness the growth of the euro currency, even if there are no fundamental and macroeconomic reasons for this. However, we still recommend that traders do not try to guess the pair's reversal upward, but wait for the Heiken Ashi indicator to reverse, which will indicate at least an upward correction against the current downward trend.

In yesterday's morning review, we said that Christine Lagarde's speech, scheduled for Wednesday, will most likely not bring any new information to traders. And so it happened. The speech of the ECB head was not related to the monetary policy of the European Union or structural changes in the Central Bank, but, as we assumed, with the "coronavirus". According to the head of the ECB, the spread of the "coronavirus" on the planet brings a new portion of uncertainty to the world economy. Christine Lagarde said: "The threat of a trade war between the United States and China appears to have diminished, but the coronavirus adds to the uncertainty." Thus, according to Lagarde, the situation with the epidemic in China partially negates the positive effects of the signing of a trade deal between Beijing and Washington. According to the latest information, the Chinese authorities have suspended the operation of many factories in China, a huge number of firms and companies around the world have limited business trips to China to a minimum. Part of the staff was transferred to remote work. China's oil consumption has already decreased by 20% since the virus outbreak, air travel has decreased, and China's stock exchanges are experiencing serious problems and collapsing day by day. In fact, this means a slowdown in the Chinese economy. Is it worth recalling that the Chinese economy is closely tied to the economies of almost all countries of the world and its slowdown will mean a slowdown in the global economy, which will mean a recession in each particular economy, in particular, the European one?

At the same time, economic experts warn that the "coronavirus" outbreak could potentially be more dangerous than the crisis of 2008-2009. According to economists, the decline in mortgage lending was predicted, and no one could warn about the unexpected onset of a new virus pandemic in advance. Therefore, the authorities of China and other countries were not ready for such a test. "In contrast to the financial crisis, governments responsible for health and the economy may be limited in their means and capabilities to eliminate or compensate for losses from the pandemic," analysts said. Recall that according to various data, the official number of infected is now several tens of thousands, but representatives of the medical sector believe that the real numbers may be much higher.

No important macroeconomic publications are scheduled for Thursday, February 6, either in the European Union or in the United States. Just one more speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde, the essence of which may again be the increased risks to the world economy due to the new virus. If Christine Lagarde does not touch the subject of ECB monetary policy again, it will be very difficult to expect a reaction from traders. Since the macroeconomic background will be zero tomorrow, the euro may start to adjust after today's fall.

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The average volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair has increased again and is now 51 points per day. Thus, on Thursday, we expect movement between the borders of the volatility range of 1.0946-1.1048. Most likely, a correction will begin, which can be determined by the reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator to the top.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.0986

S2 - 1.0956

S3 - 1.0925

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1017

R2 - 1.1047

R3 - 1.1078

Trading recommendations:

The euro/dollar pair continues to move down. Thus, sales of the euro currency with the targets of 1.0956 and 1.0946 remain relevant now, until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns up. It is recommended to return to buying the EUR/USD pair not before the price is fixed back above the moving average line, which will change the current trend to an upward one, with the first targets of 1.1078 and 1.1108.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustrations:

The highest linear regression channel is the blue unidirectional lines.

The highest linear regression channel is the blue unidirectional lines.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

Possible price movements:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: plan for the European session on February 6. The pound continues to experience panic attacks from sellers. The breakthrough

To open long positions on GBPUSD, you need:

The British pound did not long enjoy a good report on the services sector, and after several unsuccessful attempts to break above the resistance of 1.3064, it returned to a powerful phase of decline. However, it is worth noting that it has not yet been possible to reach the minimum on February 4, which keeps the chance of continuing the upward correction due to the update of the last day's maximum. The first task of buyers will be to form a false breakdown in the support area of 1.2979 today, and a rebound from the lower border of the wide ascending channel (on the green chart), which will allow them to count on a return and update the resistance of 1.3025, just below which the moving averages also pass. If buyers miss 1.2979, then you can open long positions in GBP/USD only for a rebound from the minimum of 1.2939, and then, counting on a small correction of 15-20 points. More powerful support levels are seen in the areas of 1.2896 and 1.2845.

To open short positions on GBPUSD, you need:

Sellers only have to re-establish themselves below the support of 1.2979, as well as break below the lower border of the ascending channel, which will completely return the market to their control. In this case, the first goal will be a minimum of 1.2939, the breakdown of which will collapse the pound even lower, to the support area of 1.2896 and 1.2845, where I recommend fixing the profits. Given that no good fundamental statistics are expected for the UK today, the market is likely to remain on the side of the bears. In the scenario of an upward correction in the first half of the day, short positions can be viewed from the resistance of 1.3025, but you can sell immediately for a rebound from the maximum of 1.3064.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted below the 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates another predominance of the pound sellers in the market.

Bollinger Bands

If the pair declines, the lower border of the indicator around 1.2950 will provide support. Short positions can be viewed as a rebound from the resistance of 1.3050.

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Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - Moving Average Convergence / Divergence) Fast EMA Period 12. Slow EMA Period 26. SMA Period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on February 6. Euro buyers have one chance to use the level of 1.0993 for their own

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

Good data on the US non-manufacturing sector and the number of employees from ADP maintained demand for the US dollar in the afternoon on Wednesday. This has caused even more problems for buyers since there is no special activity in the support area of 1.0993, which may lead to a further fall in EUR/USD. However, the last hope of the bulls remains the lower border of the Bollinger indicator in the area of 1.0984, as well as the divergence on the MACD indicator, which may form after the update of yesterday's minimum. All this should lead to a false breakdown of the support of 1.0993, which will be a signal to open long positions in the euro to return to the resistance of 1.1022. An equally important task for the bulls will be to break through and consolidate above this range, which will open a direct road to the area of the maximum of 1.1046, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the scenario of a support breakout of 1.0993, it is best to catch euro purchases only after updating the lows of 1.0964 and 1.0943.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:

Bears continue to play out their scenario and have already tested a fairly powerful level of 1.0993, a break and consolidation below which will quickly push the euro down to the lows of 1.0964 and 1.0943, where I recommend fixing the profits. Today's speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and the European Commission report may put additional pressure on the pair. In the scenario of an upward correction of EUR/USD in the first half of the day, you can expect to sell after the resistance update of 1.1022, provided that a false breakdown is formed there, or open short positions immediately for a rebound from the more powerful area of 1.1046.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted below the 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the predominance of sellers in the market.

Bollinger Bands

Support will be provided by the lower border of the indicator in the area of 1.1084, while growth will be limited to the upper level of the indicator in the area of 1.1022.

analytics5e3b9c73433a1.png

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - Moving Average Convergence / Divergence) Fast EMA Period 12. Slow EMA Period 26. SMA Period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on February 6, 2020

EUR/USD

Yesterday's US data on business activity in the non-manufacturing sector for January showed consistently high readings: the service PMI from Markit in the final assessment was raised to 53.4 from 53.2, and the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI was 55.5 against 55.0 in December. This is a good sign of the stability of the American economy during the development of the coronavirus. The economic indicators of the Asia-Pacific countries are deteriorating, and the dollar is already becoming unshakeable. It is important to note that the strengthening of the dollar began on February 3, the day of the start of the presidential election campaign in the United States. We don't think it's a coincidence. During his time in office, Trump has repeatedly changed his position on the strength of the national currency, but the facts show one thing – the dollar has steadily strengthened over the past two years. We believe that now Donald Trump will be more specific.

analytics5e3b7fc3a3e79.png

The euro has completed its immediate task - it is fixed under the embedded line of the price channel on the daily chart. Now the pair's immediate target is 1.0925 – the lows of September 12 and 3, 2019. The second target is the minimum of October 1 at 1.0880.

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On the four-hour chart, the price is fixed under the indicator lines, and the Marlin oscillator is in the negative trend zone. The decline continues.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on February 6, 2020

GBP/USD

As seen on the daily chart, the pound turned down yesterday from the resistance of the balance line, which is interpreted as the price development in the last three days in a downward trend. The price once again tried the strength of the support at the Fibonacci level of 161.8% (1.2968). Also, today in the Asian session, the price makes a repeated attack on it. Success in this opens the way to the second target for the Fibonacci level of 138.2% at the price of 1.2820.

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On the four-hour chart, the price has reversed exactly from the MACD line. This is a sign of a high probability of overcoming such important support as the Fibonacci level of 161.8%. Marlin also made a precise reversal from the border with growth territory. We are waiting for the price to be fixed at 1.2968 and the further decline of the British pound.

analytics5e3b7f2633054.png

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Forecast for AUD / USD on February 6, 2020

AUD / USD

Over the past two days, from the moment the RBA announced its vision in the Australian economy, the Australian dollar has grown a little more than 60 points. In general, the release of the RBA was moderately pessimistic, only the forecast for GDP assumed growth of 2.75% this year contrary to the current rate of 1.9%, which helped keep the Australian dollar. However, this unsteady optimism was overshadowed this morning, as Australia's trade balance for December fell from 5.52 billion dollars (and revised down from 5.80 billion) to 5.22 billion. Retail sales in the same period fell by -0.5% contrary to the expected -0.2%.

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On the daily chart, the price is developing between Fibonacci levels of 161.8-138.2%. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator slows growth.

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On the four-hour chart, the trading range by Fibonacci levels is more pronounced. The price remains above the indicator lines, but the Marlin oscillator shows a clear intention to go into the zone of negative values. Fixing the price below the MACD line 0.6730 (respectively, and under the Fibonacci level of 161.8% per day), opens the target at the point of intersection of the price channel line with the Fibonacci level of 223.6%, at the level of 0.6624.

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Fractal analysis for major currency pairs on February 6

Forecast for February 6:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1037, 1.1018, 1.1006, 1.0988, 1.0972, 1.0950 and 1.0938. Here, we are following the development of the descending structure of January 31. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.0988 - 1.0972. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a pronounced movement, Here, the target is 1.0950. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.0938. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range 1.1006 - 1.1018. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.1037. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the descending structure of January 31

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1006 Take profit: 1.1018

Buy: 1.1020 Take profit: 1.1035

Sell: 1.0988 Take profit: 1.0974

Sell: 1.0970 Take profit: 1.0950

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3086, 1.3042, 1.3013, 1.2958, 1.2932, 1.2889 and 1.2834. Here, the price has canceled the development of the upward trend and at the moment we are following the development of the downward structure of January 31. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.2958 - 1.2932. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a movement to the level of 1.2889. Price consolidation is near this value. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.2834. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 1.3013 - 1.3042. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3086. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the descending structure of January 31

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3013 Take profit: 1.3040

Buy: 1.3043 Take profit: 1.3084

Sell: 1.2958 Take profit: 1.2933

Sell: 1.2931 Take profit: 1.2890

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9826, 0.9810, 0.9781, 0.9760, 0.9744, 0.9719, 0.9701 and 0.9674. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of January 31. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the price passes the noise range 0.9744 - 0.9760. In this case, the target is 0.9781. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 0.9781 will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 0.9810. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.9826. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 0.9719 - 0.9701. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.9674. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of January 31

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9760 Take profit: 0.9780

Buy : 0.9782 Take profit: 0.9810

Sell: 0.9719 Take profit: 0.9703

Sell: 0.9699 Take profit: 0.9676

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 110.80, 110.47, 109.99, 109.62, 109.41 and 109.07. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of January 31. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 110.00. In this case, the target is 110.47. Price consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level 110.80. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 109.62 - 109.41. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 109.07. This level is a key support for the top.

Main trend: upward structure of January 31

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 110.00 Take profit: 110.45

Buy : 110.49 Take profit: 110.80

Sell: 109.60 Take profit: 109.42

Sell: 109.38 Take profit: 109.10

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3389, 1.3337, 1.3312, 1.3271, 1.3240 and 1.3195. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of January 22. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.3312 - 1.3337. Hence, there is a high probability of a turn to the bottom. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.3389. We expect movement to this level after the breakdown of the level of 1.3337.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 1.3271 - 1.3240. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3195. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the local ascending structure of January 22

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3313 Take profit: 1.3335

Buy : 1.3337 Take profit: 1.3387

Sell: 1.3370 Take profit: 1.3242

Sell: 1.3238 Take profit: 1.3195

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6872, 0.6846, 0.6810, 0.6781, 0.6734, 0.6713 and 0.6677. Here, we are following the formation of the ascending structure of February 4. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.6781. In this case, the target is 0.6810. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 0.6810 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 0.6846. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.6872. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 0.6734 - 0.6713. The breakdown of the latter value will have the downward structure formation. Here, the potential target is 0.6677.

The main trend is the formation of the ascending structure of February 4

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6781 Take profit: 0.6810

Buy: 0.6812 Take profit: 0.6846

Sell : 0.6734 Take profit : 0.6715

Sell: 0.6710 Take profit: 0.6677

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 122.22, 121.89, 121.41, 121.07, 120.60, 120.37, 120.05 and 119.75. Here, we are following the formation of the ascending structure of January 30. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 121.07. In this case, the goal is 121.41. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 121.45 will lead to a pronounced upward movement. Here, the goal is 121.89. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 122.22. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 120.60 - 120.37. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 120.05. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure of January 30

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 121.08 Take profit: 121.40

Buy: 121.43 Take profit: 121.87

Sell: 120.60 Take profit: 120.39

Sell: 120.35 Take profit: 120.05

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 145.43, 144.73, 144.23, 143.50, 143.26, 142.30, 141.87, 141.38 and 140.90. Here, the price registered the expressed initial conditions for the top of February 4. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the price passes the noise range of 143.26 - 143.50. In this case, the goal is 144.23. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 144.23 - 144.73. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 145.43, upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 142.30 - 141.87. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 141.38. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the initial conditions for the top of February 4

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 143.50 Take profit: 144.20

Buy: 144.25 Take profit: 144.70

Sell: 142.30 Take profit: 141.90

Sell: 141.85 Take profit: 141.40

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD and EUR/USD: UK's economy is rising again. Meanwhile, the weak GDP of the Eurozone at the beginning of this year

The euro returned to the lows of 1.1020. In fact, this area is where the pair was aiming at earlier this week. Meanwhile, the report showing a slight rise in the composite PMI indicates that the Eurozone economy will increase by only 0.2% in the 1st quarter of 2020, as compared to the 4th quarter of last year. At the same time, while the manufacturing sector showed the first signs of recovery, there was no encouraging growth in the index of the services sector for January.

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The index of France declined, while the index of Italy and Germany showed a slight increase. According to Markit data, the purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the Italian services sector rose to 51.4 points in January this year, as compared to 51.1 points in December. Economists had predicted that the index would be at 50.1 points.

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A similar index for the French services sector fell to 51.0 points in January, against 52.4 points in December. It was forecasted to be at 51.7 points.

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Meanwhile, geopolitical shocks continue to have a negative impact on the German economy. This was evidenced by the data on the manufacturing index. However, although Germany is particularly sensitive to geopolitical shocks in terms of industrial production, the stock market and services are the least affected. Today's report from Markit showed that the purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the German services sector rose to 54.2 points in January this year, while in December, it was at 52.9 points. This fully coincided with the forecasts of economists.

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In the Eurozone, the purchasing managers' index (PMI) for services fell to 52.5 points in January, compared to 52.8 points in December. It had a forecast of a decline to 52.2 points. As for the composite index, which takes into account both the manufacturing sector and services, it recovered to 51.3 points in January, compared to its 50.9 points in December and the forecast of 50.9 points.

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In the morning, a more serious pressure on the euro was provided by a report on a sharp decline on retail sales in the Euro area. This reflects the consumers' caution at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, which negatively affects the pace of economic growth in the Eurozone. According to the data, retail sales in December 2019 decreased immediately by 1.6% compared to November, where the figure was revised to 0.8%. Meanwhile, economists had forecasted a fall in sales of only 0.7%. However, compared to the same period in 2018, sales increased by 1.3%.

As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, buyers of risky assets encounter more problems, as trading has moved to the support of 1.1020. If the bulls do not show themselves from this level in the near future, then the trading instrument will most likely push even lower to the area of the lows of 1.0990. However, an interesting scenario is for the buyers to return risky assets to the resistance of 1.1050, which will lead to an upward correction from the area of yesterday's high at 1.1065 to the level of 1.1095.

GBP/USD

The British pound managed to strengthen its position and return to the resistance area of 1.3065. This good growth of the pound was promoted by a report from IHS Markit, which showed that the final composite index, which takes into account the manufacturing sector and the service sector, rose to the level of 53.3 points in January against 52.4 points in December last year. The index level above 50 indicates an increase in activity compared to the previous month.

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As for the services sector, which accounts for more than 70% of UK GDP, the January purchasing managers' index (PMI) was revised to 53.9 points, from a preliminary value of 52.9. Economists had expected this indicator to remain unchanged.

This data once again confirms the small progress in the growth of the UK economy after the general election at the end of last year. The reduction of uncertainty is clearly for the benefit of consumers, which stimulates the increase of spending, and leads to the increase of companies' investments.

As for the technical picture of the GBP/USD pair, the entire emphasis is placed on the level of 1.3065, where the market balance is gradually returning, and volatility is returning to normal. A break in this range will open a direct path to the highs of 1.3105 and 1.3165. However, when counting on a new wave of growth, we need to remember the support in the area of 1.3020, where a breakthrough of which can quickly cancel out all the plans of the bulls, pushing GBP/USD to the lows of 1.2980 and 1.2940.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. February 5. Results of the day. Is Brexit good for the UK or the beginning of an end?

4 hour timeframe

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Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 118p - 132p - 126p - 217p - 106p.

Average volatility over the past 5 days: 124p (high).

The pound will continue to trade very actively every day, if the European currency maintains a volatility close to the "low" value. Today is no exception. In addition, as in the case of the European currency, the downward movement resumed for the pound / dollar pair. But if in the case of the euro, the movement was likely to continue, then in the case of the pound, the pair first corrected, then resumed moving down, and now, it can begin a new round of upward correction. In case that the whole "minimum area" regularly plays a trick on the euro / dollar currency pair, then the bears do not want to continue selling around which. Meanwhile, in the case of the pound, it continues to keep down the level of 1.2978, from which the quotes rebounded seven times in the last four weeks. Thus, the resumption of the decline of the British pound is delayed.

In the UK, macroeconomic data today were indeed optimistic and simply strong unlike the European Union. The index of business activity in the service sector increased from 52.9 to 53.9, that is, added a whole point, which provoked the purchase of the pound this morning. However, after lunch, all the same macroeconomic statistics from across the world, which we already spoke about in the EUR / USD review, allowed the bears to return to the game and the pair began to decline again. And then on its way arose the level of 1.2978, which could not be overcome once again, led to a rebound. It turns out that the movement of the British pound today was influenced by both fundamental and technical factors. All of them led to versatile movements throughout the day.

What can be said as a result? The British pound is also prone to decline against the US dollar, as well as the euro. In the UK, things are even worse than in the European Union, and the potential economic slowdown can be much stronger than in the EU. Although, if Donald Trump still introduces duties on the products of the automotive sector of the European Union, then the European economy will not be too greeted. However, one way or another, it is the British and European economies that strive to decline into the bottom. Due to technical support lines, both European currencies still manage to stay above, but there is a strong impression that both currencies will collapse sooner or later.

Meanwhile, experts continue to discuss the prospects for Britain after 2020, when, most likely, the "transition period" will end. Great Britain will leave the EU completely and will trade with Europeans either according to WTO rules or under a trade agreement if it is reached during 2020. All experts were divided into two groups. The first one believes that the "era of opportunity" is opening up for Great Britain, while the second believes that the country will now become a "secondary player on the world stage." The first group notes that the growth rate of the Kingdom's economy has slowed down since joining the EU than it had been for decades and even the creation of a single European market in the 80s did not lead to accelerated economic growth. In fact, opponents of the European Union believe that the Alliance "slowed down" Britain, and now, the Kingdom will be able to be free. London remains one of the largest financial centers in the world, as well as a leader in the field of artificial intelligence. It is also noted that unemployment in the country remains at a 45-year low - only 3.8%. Naturally, the trade aspect is also noted. The fact is that London will now independently decide with whom to trade, in what volumes and set prices individually should favorably affect prices themselves, production volumes and an increase in the quality of goods. However, supporters of the opposite opinion are much more. Firstly, it is noted that companies whose activities are related to free movement within the European Union, as well as duty-free trade in goods will suffer after Brexit. And there are a lot of such companies over the past 47. Secondly, the UK economy has already lost 130 billion pounds, another 70 be will be lost during 2020, and no one knows what will happen next. Thirdly, the Bank of England lowered its forecasts for GDP growth for the coming years, that is, in fact, expects a further slowdown in the economy. Fourthly, the UK is leaving companies, manufacturing, banks, which are very dependent on the European Union.

At the moment, the British pound may go into correction again. We recommend waiting for the confidence to overcome the level of 1.2978, which will allow us to expect the resumption of the formation of a downtrend. Otherwise, the pound / dollar may be in a sideways movement. As for an upward trend, there are frankly not enough fundamental reasons and grounds now.

Trading recommendations:

GBP / USD is trying to continue a new downward trend. Thus, sales of the British pound are currently relevant with the target of the support level of 1.2894; however, we recommend waiting for the level of 1.2978 to be overcome, since the price has already rebounded from it 7 times. Moreover, the pair's purchases can be considered again if the price returns to the area above the Kijun-sen line with targets at 1.3152 and 1.3283. Thus, extra caution is recommended when opening any positions.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicators window.

Support / Resistance Classic Levels:

Red and gray dashed lines with price symbols.

Pivot Level:

Yellow solid line.

Volatility Support / Resistance Levels:

Gray dotted lines without price designations.

Possible price movements:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. February 5. Results of the day. US macroeconomic statistics announced the verdict on euro currency

4 hour timeframe

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Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 36p - 32p - 79p - 58p - 31p.

Average volatility over the past 5 days: 48p (average).

Over the past months, we have repeatedly compared the economies of the United States and the European Union and have repeatedly concluded that it is on the basis of this factor that the downward trend for the EUR / USD pair remains. Today has confirmed once again that the euro has no special prospects and they are unlikely to appear in the near future. The third trading day of the week and February began with a calm downward movement. The pair euro-dollar crossed the critical line Kijun-sen, which has already called into question the resumption of the upward movement. Well, at the European trading session, it became clear that the downward trend would resume. Moreover, it is impossible to say with confidence that the trend has resumed and now we are going to move down for at least several days, since the same "paradoxical situation" comes into play, which we have already described many times. The thing is, that the pair, firstly, moved up to local lows near the level of 1.0992, and secondly, to two-year lows, to which there are about 100 points. It was in this area that the upward reversal took place repeatedly, even if the necessary macroeconomic statistics were available for further downward movement. Moreover, bears simply left these levels, and the next rollback occurs. It is difficult to say whether this will happen this time, but we warn traders that a pair reversal is very likely in the area of 1.0992 - 1.0879.

What happened today is that instead of the highly anticipated upward movement, traders began to get rid of the euro currency again, but actually it is not surprising. Just another package of nondescript macroeconomic statistics from the eurozone and another package strong - from across the world. Over the past few weeks, we have questioned the current "good" state of the US economy, as Jerome Powell said. However, recent evidence suggests the Fed chairman is truly right.

It all started with the publication of business activity in the EU countries. The most important indicators showed a minimal increase. So, in Germany, business activity in the services sector did not change compared to December and amounted to 54.2, while the indicator increased by 0.3, up to 52.5 in the European Union. However, we said this morning that indicators of business activity in the service sector are not so important for traders. The service industry does not cause such concerns as the manufacturing sector, it did not experience a particularly strong slowdown or decline. Thus, we can say that everything is stable in this area, and changes in indicators by 0.2-0.3 are not something special. But the next macroeconomic report showed that retail sales in the European Union in December declined by 1.6% in monthly terms (forecast -0.9%), and in annual terms, the growth rate slowed down to 1.3% (forecast + 2.4% y / y). It is completely disappointing, in other words, to characterize these statistics does not work. And although this report is not one of the most important and significant, the deviation from the forecast value was quite large, which provoked new sales of the European currency.

In addition, certain expectations of buyers of the euro were associated with US statistics. Information on similar business activity in the service sector, as well as data on changes in the number of new employees in the US private sector, was due to arrive from overseas today. And the very first report from overseas buried all the hopes of traders to strengthen the euro. The ADP report showed an increase of 291,000 new employees with a forecast value of +156,000 and the previous +202,000. A little later, it turned out that the business activity indexes in the Markit and ISM services sector also turned out to be better than experts expected, making 53.4 - the first and 55 5 - second. The growth of both indices was also not large, but just compare: the index for the EU services sector grew from 52.2 to 52.5, while the similar index in the USA grew from 55.0 to 55.5. That's the whole difference between the economies of the United States and the European Union. If both economies are slowing down, then the European is elementarily "behind" the American. If both economies are accelerating, then the US is making it at a faster pace. Moreover, the Fed has 7 or 8 more options to stimulate the economy in the event of new shocks by simply lowering the key rate. In the European Union, rates are already negative. The Fed formally conducts a quantitative easing program, but plans to curtail it in April and calls it "short-term measures to maintain liquidity in the financial sector." In turn, the ECB is conducting an official securities buyback program and is not going to complete it in the near future.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair resumed the downward movement. Thus, it is now recommended to sell the euro with targets at levels 1.0995 and 1.0956, until the MACD indicator reverses or another sign of the start of correction. It will be possible to consider the purchase of the euro / dollar pair with the goals of 1.1090 and 1.1128, if traders manage to return quotes of the pair above the Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B. lines.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicators window.

Support / Resistance Classic Levels:

Red and gray dashed lines with price symbols.

Pivot Level:

Yellow solid line.

Volatility Support / Resistance Levels:

Gray dotted lines without price designations.

Possible price movements:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis and forecast for NZD/USD on February 5, 2020

Greetings, dear traders!

New Zealand released important data on the labor market today. The change in the number of employees for the fourth quarter was left at 0%, although the forecast assumed an increase in employment by 0.3%. On the other hand, the unemployment rate declined quite unexpectedly to 4% against expectations of 4.2%.

As you can see, the data on the labor market were mixed. More New Zealand statistics will not be published this week, and all the attention of investors will be focused on labor statistics from the United States, the publication of which is scheduled for this Friday at 13:30 (Universal time).

I believe that this statistics, which is most important for markets, will determine the results for the main (and not only) currency pairs, including NZD/USD.

In the meantime, let's take a look at the technical picture of this instrument and try to determine the future prospects of the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar. However, I'll immediately note that the Friday data on the US labor market can significantly change the technical picture for this and other currency pairs. Much will depend on the specific numbers and the reaction of market participants to them.

Weekly

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Last week, the "kiwi" finished against the US dollar with an impressive decline and as a result of which, 50 a simple moving average and the Kijun line of the Ichimoku indicator were broken. So, what's next?

At the beginning of this week, the decline continued, but the pair found strong support at a significant technical level of 0.6450 and is trying to recover from previous losses. At this time, the quote is trying to return above the Kijun line, but so far it has been very difficult. It turns out hard, since Kijun has a fairly strong resistance to the price. Let's see how it will go further, since there is still enough time and important events until the end of the current five-day period. Once again, I will express my personal opinion that everything will be decided on Friday after 13:30 (Universal time), when the market gets acquainted with labor statistics from the USA for January.

Now, let's move to the prospects of the "New Zealand" currency. Judging by the weekly schedule, a breakdown of the support level of 0.6450, in my opinion, will inevitably send the pair to another serious and important level of 0.6400, where the further direction of the NZD/USD rate will be decided.

The kiwi bulls have a much more difficult task. In order to take control of the pair, they need to break through the current resistance in the form of Kijun, which is still not possible. If the Kijun passes, the next resistance looms on the horizon, which will be represented by 50 MA, at 0.6554. But this is not all that players need to do to increase the exchange rate in order to get the market for NZD / USD to their hands.

The maximum values of the last week are above 50 MA, at 0.6596. However, the Tenkan line can be placed in this, which is located at 0.6602 and is ready to provide maximum resistance to a possible price increase. Why? Because Tenkan is actually located at a strong technical level of 0.6600, which had a significant impact on the dynamics of the NZD/USD exchange rate more than once or twice.

Based on the analysis of the weekly chart of the pair, the downward option seems to be the most realistic. However, we should not forget about Friday non-farms, which can bring significant changes to the markets.

Daily

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On the daily chart, it can be seen that on one hand, the pair found strong support at 0.6450 and is trying to start recovery from this level, and on the other, strong resistance in the form of psychological and technical level 0.6500 and the lower border of the Ichimoku indicator cloud do not allow quotes to go up.

I believe that a breakdown of the support at the level of 0.6450 or a breakdown of the resistance at the level of 0.6500 will indicate the further direction of the instrument. Of course, at this stage, we can only guess what we will not do with it.

H4

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On this chart, the pair is trading in a descending channel and, accordingly, a trend. Let me explain briefly. Finding a moving average of 50 MA(0.6509), 89 MA(0.6537) and 200 EMA at 0.6560 below the resistance line may well provide strong resistance and, along with the support line of the descending channel, make profitable sales.

At the moment, sales from the price zone 0.6509-0.6560 are the best trading idea in my opinion.

Unfortunately, there are no signals to open long positions in the current situation.

Good luck on your profit!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Prospects for Bitcoin: $15,000 in 2020?

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The cryptocurrency sphere is fertile ground for the most incredible forecasts. Note that some of them, despite being too unrealistic, sometimes come true. For this, it is necessary to carefully monitor the state of the market, fixing anything, even insignificant at first glance, such as trends.

According to experts, one of the conflicting forecasts regarding cryptocurrency number 1 is the statement by Jehan Chu, co-founder of the investment blockchain company Kenetic Capital. According to the crypto enthusiast, this year the market has created all the conditions for a breakthrough movement of the military-technical cooperation to an ultra-high mark of $ 15,000.

Jehan Chu noted three reasons for the potential growth of bitcoin: the upcoming halving of the first cryptocurrency, panic sentiment due to the Chinese coronavirus epidemic and instability in the global economy. In this situation, Bitcoin will become an island of hope for investors along with such protective assets as gold and the Japanese currency, the head of Kenetic Capital is sure.

In addition, Jehan Chu's point of view is shared by other market participants. Many of them believe that the price of PTS will be hindered by the Fibonacci correction level, located at around $ 9075. If subsidence of the leading digital asset does not occur, then it will grow first to $ 9,450, and then to $ 9,600, experts are sure.

At the moment, the price of the leading virtual means of payment has reached a three-month high against the backdrop of increased demand for safe haven assets associated with the spread of the Chinese coronavirus. The pandemic threat contributed to the collapse of global stock markets and commodity prices. According to analysts, fixing a military-technical cooperation above the level of $ 9600 will open the way to the psychologically important level of $ 10,000. Today, on February 5, bitcoin just reached the $ 9,450 mark, which was warned by experts.

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It can be recalled that cryptocurrency No.1 showed the best results over the past seven years in January of this year. According to the results of the first month of 2020, the value of the coin soared by almost 31%, which is the highest level since January 2013. According to analysts, the rapid growth of bitcoin is due to a sharp destabilization of the situation in Asia, in particular in China, where the coronavirus dominates.

Some experts do not share the optimism of the head of Kenetic Capital, who expects the MTC to repeat records at the end of 2017. At the same time, Asian investors are more active than European ones investing in digital assets, but they cannot radically affect the situation. Due to this, analysts call for caution about the prospects of the cryptocurrency market, especially at those moments when the crypto community predicts another historical rally. It is possible that it will take place, but it can break off at any time, since the unpredictability of digital assets exceeds all financial instruments, experts warn.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: pound will face a bumpy road if trade tensions between Britain and the EU increase

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The British currency lost more than 1% against the US dollar on Monday and continued to decline on Tuesday amid growing pessimistic sentiment regarding upcoming trade negotiations between the United Kingdom and the European Union.

The GBP / USD pair lowered to 0.4% from 1.2942, reaching its lowest level since December 25.

"The market is frightened by the continuous distance between London and Brussels and is concerned that the same small compromise is possible in such a short period of time," strategists told Rabobank.

"Achieving a trade agreement between the parties seems rather ambitious and could entail risks for the UK economy (its assets, as well as the pound sterling) during the year," RBC Capital Markets analysts said.

Today, the GBP/USD pair was able to recover from six-week lows and rise above the level of 1.3050.

The pound was supported by the positive UK PMI business activity report for January. Last month, the indicator rose to 53.9 points compared to 52.9 points recorded in December.

Recent US Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show that bullish speculative pound rates were moderate for a week (until January 28), but remained generally unchanged.

The sale of the British currency that took place this week implies that these positions are closing and that the pound may continue to decline.

"We expect the British currency to continue to decline (to $ 1.2820), as macroeconomic expectations could worsen if trading uncertainty increases and the elimination of speculative long positions continues," said Jeremy Stretch of the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, adding that there are those who can buy GBP / USD in the fall.

"Market participants have already begun to express concern about the risks associated with Britain leaving the EU without a deal," said Lee Hardman of MUFG Bank.

Apparently, the big risk premium for Brexit is back to the value of the pound.

"In the coming weeks or months, GBP / USD will drop to 1.28 or lower, because good news for the British currency may not appear immediately, but only over a longer period," says Keith Jax, Societe Generale specialist.

"The pound will face a bumpy road if trade tensions between Foggy Albion and the EU increase. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson made it clear that he would rather avoid a trade deal than bring the country in line with EU rules. As long as the negotiations remain tense and there are no signs of a compromise between the two sides, we recommend selling GBP / USD on rises above 1.32" UniCredit experts said.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trump still wants to weaken the dollar, but he does not think to slow down his run

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It's amazing how fast the scenery is changing in the financial market. At the beginning of the year, investors were encouraged by the conclusion of an interim trade agreement between Washington and Beijing. Against this background, the MSCI index of world stocks increased by 3% by the end of the first week of January. On the other hand, the inversion of the yield curve of the Treasuries was safely forgotten. Nobody remembered the threat of a recession in the United States, and everyone praised the American Central Bank for its preventive cycle of monetary expansion. The outbreak of the coronavirus in China literally turned everything upside down.

Thus, some experts argue that the new epidemic is not as dangerous as the previous ones, but globalization and an increase in China's share of world GDP since SARS 2003 (from 4% to 17%) are fueling panic in the markets.

Bloomberg analysts predict that economic growth in China will slow down from 5.9% to 4.5% in 2020. Meanwhile, specialists at Barclays, Oxford Economics and UBS do expect to see it below 4%.

Due to another inversion of the yield curve, the derivatives market began to lay in the quotes the 50% probability of two acts of monetary expansion by the Fed in 2020. However, the increased demand for defensive assets and positive statistical data in the USA support the dollar.

The currency market has changed, but will the coronavirus epidemic push the idea of long-term longs of EUR/USD? This idea is based on expectations of an acceleration of the eurozone economy due to the ceasefire in the trade war between the United States and China, as well as a slowdown in US GDP due to problems associated with the Boeing airline. Judging by the latest survey of Reuters experts who predict a 4% increase in the euro against the US dollar by the end of 2020, no, but if we take into account the decrease in the main currency pair to the base of the 10th figure, then yes.

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It is noteworthy that the coronavirus prevented Donald Trump from unleashing a trade war with the European Union. It seems that the head of the White House understands that his activity on this issue could lead to a fall in the American stock market, which will not be the best news in the run-up to the presidential election. At the same time, he does not abandon attempts to weaken the dollar, including through the introduction of a mechanism for complaints by companies from the United States about the competitive devaluation of currencies. Moreover, Washington received the right to impose duties even on those states that are not included in the black list of currency manipulators. As recent history shows, the introduction of trade tariffs leads to the strengthening of the dollar, and not vice versa.

The rapid rise of EUR / USD at the end of January returned the hope of the "bulls", however, the inability of the pair to break above the level of 1.1100 was a sign of weakness of buyers. The latter can only rely on disappointing statistics on the US labor market in January, which will allow quotes to return above 1.1050.

Meanwhile, one of the best performers of Tuesday among the G10 currencies was the Australian dollar. The desire of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to just observe allowed the pair AUD/USD to demonstrate the strongest daily growth since early December.

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Following the January meeting, the regulator, citing the need to assess the consequences of a weakening monetary policy in 2019, decided to keep the interest rate at the same level - 0.75%. The Central Bank mentioned possible risks for the national economy in the form of coronavirus and forest fires, but left forecasts for economic growth in Australia for 2020 and 2021 almost unchanged (at 2.75% and 3%, respectively). This allowed the bulls to go on a counterattack on AUD / USD.

Given the improvement in recent macro statistics coming from the country, it is possible that the RBA may refrain from changing its monetary policy in the coming months. This is a positive factor for the Australian dollar, which has significantly fallen in price over the past two years.

At the same time, the Aussie bears believe that the central bank is too optimistic. According to them, the influence of China on the economy of the Green Continent has increased significantly since the SARS epidemic of 2003. If then China accounted for 7% of Australian exports, but now it is 33%. Therefore, given the potential slowdown of China's GDP in the first quarter to 4.9%, Australia doesn't shine anything good, and the Aussies will most likely remain under pressure with a tendency to further weaken.

In the event of further decline in the pair AUD / USD and the breakdown of support of 0.6680 (low of 2019), the targets will be the levels of 0.6600 and 0.6500.

On the other hand, it makes sense to form long-term "longs" at AUD / USD at a breakthrough of resistance at 0.6775-0.6795 if we proceed from the fact that the peak of the coronavirus epidemic will be passed in the second half of February.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com