Global macro overview for 14/02/2018

At the end of 2017, American citizens' debts exceeded the historic amount from the third quarter of 2008 - the New York Federal Reserve informed. However, there is no concern about this state of affairs on the financial markets yet.The total debt of Americans due to mortgage loans, credit cards, student loans or debts for the purchase of a car is 13,150,000,000,000 Dollars. This astronomical amount of USD 13.15 trillion (USD 13.150 billion) was 473 billion USD higher than the previous record from the third quarter of 2008 (12.68 billion USD). However, while in 2009 the household debt in the US was 87% of the gross domestic product, currently the ratio is 67%. From the bottom of the second quarter of 2013, the debts of American households increased by 17.9%. Only in 2017, American debts have grown by 572 billion USD. At the same time, the US savings rate has fallen close to 2.0% - the lowest level in a decade. More than 75% of the debt balance were mortgage loans amounting to a total of 8.88 trillion dollars. That is 139 billion USD more than a quarter earlier. To this must be added 444 billion USD of the balance of loans taken out against property.

Although Americans' debts have hit the crisis record, their replayability is generally the same or even better than Lehman Brothers's bankruptcy. With the exception of increasingly troublesome student loans (where more than 10% of loans have a delay in repayment exceeding 90 days), the situation looks quite good. However, we should take into consideration the fact that interest rates in the United States are still very low and the unemployment rate has remained at its lowest level in 17 years. When the prosperity is over and the cost of credit increases, America will have another credit hangover.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has tested the technical support at the level of 89.64, dipped a little more, but now is bouncing back towards the level of 90.11. If the bulls will get strong enough to break out above the level of 90.50, the price might return to the main channel and try to test the next technical resistance at the level of 90.98.

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Global macro overview for 14/02/2018

The markets are awaiting the publication of January CPI inflation data from the US. At the top of the list of investors' worries is accelerating inflation, which will lead central banks to faster tighten monetary policy, thus cooling the recovery. At the beginning of February, the US labor market report (including higher wage growth) became a catalyst for stock market sales, which spilled the risk aversion into other asset classes. In this context, today's CPI data can act like pouring oil into the fire. For that to happen, the CPI must surprise positively, but expectations are already high (0.3% m / m) thanks to the increase in the price of piles at the beginning of the year. So the bar for a positive surprise is suspended high and the market does not really believe that it will be jumped over. This explains calmness on the stock market and pairs with commodity currencies, but it also means a return to USD sell-off - a fall in USD / JPY and an increase in EUR / USD in the last hours cannot be explained by global investors escaping to safe havens. However, at the end of the day it will be counted in which direction the stock market indexes went.

Today's US publication is important, but not necessarily a catalyst for volatility in the markets. Just as well over the next few days, we can still witness relative stability; attempts to find strength between bulls and bears by education of a stronger and more lasting tendency.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has moved above the technical resistance at the level of 1.2333 (now support) and made a local high at the level of 1.2393. which is a 61% Fibo retracement of the last leg down. The market conditions are now overbought, so the price might test the level of 1.2333 and 1.2314.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for February 14, 2018

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All our targets which we predicted in yesterday's analysis have been hit. The pair is rebounding from a low of 107.39 seen yesterday (February 13) but remains capped by the key resistance at 108.20. Though the relative strength index has climbed to the neutrality level at 50, showing a lack of downward momentum for the pair, intraday bearishness is still maintained by the descending 50-period moving average.

In case the current rebound loses steam failing to push the pair through the key resistance at 107.85, a return to 106.80 is expected.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a long position is recommended to be above 107.85 with a target of 108.20.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, stop loss at 107.85, take profit at 106.80.

Resistance levels: 108.20, 108.5, and 108.85

Support levels: 10.30, 107.05, and 106.75.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for February 14, 2018

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair will continue to rise from the level of 0.9300. The support is found at the level of 0.9255, which represents the double bottom level on the H1 and H4 charts. The price is likely to form a double bottom. Today, the major support is seen at 0.9255, while immediate resistance is seen at 0.9399. Accordingly, the USD/CHF pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of a high at 0.9399. So, buy above the level of 0.9300 with the first target at 0.9399 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and move further to 0.9444. Also, the level of 0.9444 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in an uptrend; for that we expect the USD/CHF pair to climb from 0.9300 to 0.9444 today. At the same time, in case a reversal takes place and the USD/CHF pair breaks through the support level of 0.9300, a further decline to 0.9255 can occur, which would indicate a bearish market.
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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for February 14, 2018

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USD/CHF is expected to trade with a bearish outlook as far as 0.9355 is resistance. Despite the recent rebound, the pair is still trading below the declining 50-period moving average, which is playing a resistance role. Even though a continuation of the technical rebound cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Therefore, as long as 0.9355 is not surpassed, look for a new decline with targets at 0.9300 and 0.9275 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot point indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, stop loss at 0.9355, take profit at 0.9300.

Resistance levels: 0.9400, 0.9440, and 0.9480

Support levels: 0.9300, 0.9275, and 0.9240.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for February 14, 2018

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair is still trading upwards above the level of 0.7213 on the H4 chart. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.7359 followed by 0.7394, while the daily support 1 is seen at 0.7213 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement). According to the previous events, the NZD/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 0.7255 and 0.7359; so we expect a range of 104 pips. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the pivot point at 0.7298, it should see the pair climbing towards the first resistance (0.7359) to test it. Therefore, buy above the level of 0.7298 with the first target at 0.7359 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 0.7394. Also, it might be noted that the level of 0.7394 is a good place to take profit. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place, and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.7213, a further decline to 0.7157 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.
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Bitcoin analysis for February 14, 2018

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Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading sideways at the price of $8.765. The Thai central bank has prohibited financial institutions in the country from five key cryptocurrency activities, including banning customers from buying cryptocurrencies with credit cards. Technical picture on the Bitcoin looks neutral to bearrish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 30M time - frame, I found a breakout of the upward trendline in the background, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found double bearrish candles ("hanging man"), which is another sign that sellers are in control. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $8.444 and at the price of $8.423.

Support/Resistance

$8.879 – Intraday resistance

$8.434– Intraday support

$8.444 – Objective target 1

$8.423 – Objective target 2

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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USD/JPY analysis fo February 14, 2018

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Recently, the USD/JPY pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 106.85. According to the 30M time - frame, I found a successful breakout of support at the price of 107.40, which is a sign that sellers are in control. I also found an overbought condition on the stochastic oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 106.65 and at the price of 105.85.

Resistance levels:

R1: 108.60

R2: 109.37

R3: 109.95

Support levels:

S1: 107.22

S2: 106.62

S3: 105.85

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Analysis of Gold for February 14, 2018

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Recently, the Gold has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $1,336.97. Anyway, according to the 30M time - frame, I found that price has broke the upward trednline, which is sign that buying looks risky. I also found a successful rejection of pivot resistance 2 at the prrice of $1,336.80. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $1,327.30, $1,323.75 and at the price of $1,318.10.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,333.08

R2: $1.336.80

R3: $1,342.53

Support levels:

S1: $1,323.75

S2: $1,318.10

S3: $1,314.20

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for February 14, 2018

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Our first target which we predicted in previous analysis has been hit. The pair retreated and broke below the 20-period moving average after failing to penetrate above the key resistance at 149.85. The relative strength index is below its neutrality level at 50 and lacks upward momentum.

Hence, as long as 149.85 holds on the upside, look for a new drop with targets at 148.40 and 147.80 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a long position is recommended to be above 149.85 with the target at 150.80.

Strategy: SELL, Stop loss at 149.85, Take profit at 148.40

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates long positions; and when it is below the pivot point, it indicates short positions. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 150.80, 152.10, and 153.00

Support levels: 148.40, 147.80, and 147.00.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for February 14, 2018

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Our first upside target which we predicted in yesterday's analysis has been hit. NZD/USD is expected to trade with a bullish outlook above 0.7285. The pair is supported by an upward trend line since February 8, which confirmed a bullish outlook. The relative strength index is above its neutrality level at 50. A support base at 0.7265 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilization.

Hence, above 0.7285, look for a further advance with targets at 0.7350 and 0.7380 in extension.

The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines show the support levels, while the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7325, 0.7355, and 0.7385.

Support levels: 0.7225, 0.7200, and 0.7175.

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Bitcoin analysis for 14/02/2018

South Korea is currently considering a licensing system for cryptocurrency exchanges, which looks like a large turnover of shares after previous information, to prove the ban on stock exchanges. According to the local press agency Business Korea, legislators from the dedicated Working Group on Cryptocurrency, they are exploring the possibility of following New York and Japan in checking stock market operators before allowing them to enter the market. The New York program is several years old and faces many problems, including arrears and exorbitant costs, while the move in Japan in 2017 met with high demand and recognition. "We are positive about the adoption of the stock exchange approval system as additional regulations on cryptocurrencies. South Korea experienced several months of shocks after the mixed messages provided by Seoul regarding the legality of cryptocurrencies and their trade."- says a public official appointed to this case.

The perspective changed quickly after the comments of the Minister of Justice, Park Sung-ki, triggered a public reaction and a petition to release both him and Finance Minister Kim Dong-Yeon for market manipulation. Sung-ki Park suggested a general ban on stock exchanges, a process that was later abandoned.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. After hovering around the weekly pivot for the last couple of days, the market is getting ready to test the nearest technical resistance at the level of $9,146. In a case of a breakout higher, the next targets are seen at the levels of $9,515, $9,837 and $10,998. On the other hand, the support is seen at the level of $7,847 and $7,531.

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Trading plan for 14/02/2018

The Wednesday's session in the forex market in Asia was a bit like the yesterday's trading in Europe, that is, it left the US Dollar under the pressure of sales. USD/JPY had a temporary spike down under 107, and NZD found power in the inflation expectations. The stock market moves in different directions. Crude oil is based on the negative indications of the API report.

On Wednesday, 14 February, the event calendar is quite busy in important data releases. The market participants should keep an eye on German Final Consumer Price Index and Preliminary GDP data, Eurozone Industrial Production and GDP data, and during the US session, on Consumer Price Index and Retail Sales data from the US.

The USD/JPY analysis for 14/02/2018:

The preliminary reading of Japan's GDP for the fourth quarter fell below forecasts at 0.1% vs expected 0.2%. The annualized increase amounted to 0.5% versus forecasts of 1.0%. However, the data did not change much in the JPY outlook, which was the largest beneficiary of the weakening USD.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. USD/JPY recorded a daily low at 106.80 before it recovered to 107.2, so the important daily time frame technical support was broken. Currently, the price is trying to bounce towards the level of 107.53, but it does not look like the bulls are strong enough to break out above this level. Both RSI and Stochastic are at oversold levels.

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Market Snapshot: SPY is consolidating the recent gains after a bounce

The price of SPY (SP500 ETF) has been consolidating in the zone of 263.27 - 266.90 after a recent bounce from the level of 252.92. This zone is just above the 61% Fibo at the level of 265.30, so it might take a while to the market to decide which way it wants to follow after the recent sell-off. The next important technical resistance is seen at the level of 272.10.

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Market Snapshot: DAX is still under the resistance

The price of German DAX index is trading below the technical resistance zone of 12,318 - 12,386 in the oversold market conditions. Only a sustained breakout above this area would indicate the next important resistance at the level of 12,503. Otherwise, the price might test the strength of the local support at the level of 11,996 soon.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for February 14, 2018

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Daily Outlook

In July 2017, an atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart which indicated upcoming bearish reversal.

As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why, further bearish decline was expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).

Evident signs of bullish recovery was expressed around the depicted low (0.6780). An inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed around these price levels.

The price zone of 0.7140-0.7250 (prominent Supply-Zone) failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, a bullish breakout above 0.7250 was expressed on January 11.

That's why, the current bullish movement extended towards the price levels of 0.7320 and 0.7390.

A quick bullish movement was expected towards the depicted supply zone (0.7320-0.7390) where evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry were expected.

On February 2, a bearish engulfing daily candlestick was expressed. This enhances the bearish scenario initially towards the price levels of 0.7230 - 0.7165 where recent bullish recovery was expressed.

Bearish fixation below 0.7160 is needed to allow a further decline towards 0.7090.

On the other hand, the price zone (0.7320-0.7390) remains a significant supply zone to be watched for possible bearish rejection and another SELL entry. Stop Loss should be placed above 0.7400.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for February 14, 2018

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450 and recently above 1.2075.

Another bullish breakout above 1.2250 was expressed on the chart. This hinders the bearish momentum allowing bullish advancement to occur towards 1.2750.

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Daily Outlook

In September, a bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern was projected towards 1.1350. However, the market failed to apply significant bearish pressure against the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).

Instead, in November, evident bullish recovery was manifested around the price zone of 1.1520-1.1415.

This hindered further bearish decline which allowed the current bullish momentum to occur towards the price level of 1.2100 which failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum as well.

Daily persistence above 1.2470-1.2500 is needed to confirm a recent bullish flag continuation pattern with projected targets towards 1.2750.

However, a recent bearish pullback was being expressed below the price level of 1.2350. This may extend towards 1.2070 if a bearish breakdown of the level of 1.2200 is achieved on a daily basis.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of USDX for February 14, 2018

The Dollar index briefly fell below the important 89.60 support but is now trading right above that level. The pull back towards the Ichimoku cloud came as we expected and today's inflation announcement for the US economy will be the main catalyst for what the Dollar will do next.

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Red line - resistance trend line

The Dollar index is challenging the support by the 4hour Kumo (cloud). Support is here at 89.60-89.50. A bounce from this area of support would be a bullish sign. Resistance is at 90.50. If support fails to hold, we could see a push towards low 88's even today.

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On a daily basis the Dollar index is challenging the tenkan-sen support. A daily close below 89.60 would be a bearish sign after the rejection at the kijun-sen. Bulls need to break above yesterday's high at least in order to reclaim control of the trend.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of gold for February 14, 2018

Gold price is making higher highs and higher lows. The rice is challenging short-term cloud resistance at $1,334 as we expected. Today's inflation data announcement will play a decisive role on what Gold will do next. Break out and/or get rejected?

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Black line - resistance trend line

Gold price has broken above the black trend line and is challenging the 4 hour Kumo (clodu) resistance. A 4 hour close above the cloud would be a bullish sign. Support is at $1,328, the next and the most important one is at $1,321. As long as Gold price is above that level, bulls are in control.

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On a daily basis, Gold price has closed above the tenkan-sen and is challenging the kijun-sen at $1,334. A rejection here will push the price towards the cloud support at $1,300-$1,290. A daily close above the kijun-sen will be a bullish sign and will give us a target of $1,380.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for February 13, 2018

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Overview

The GBP/JPY pair was affected by the strength of the moving average 55 around 151.00 level that forced the price to form a clear negative crawl by consolidating around 150.00 level. This confirms the domination of the correctional bearish bias to keep our expectations to target 38.2% Fibonacci correction level at 148.50. We should note that further negative pressure might force the price to resume the negative actions by sinking below 148.25 level. So the pair is expected to move towards 146.60 level and face the extension of the historical support line that is displayed on the chart. The expected trading range for today is between 151.00 and 148.25

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Daily analysis of Gold for February 13, 2018

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Overview

Gold price is carrying on a rally to reach the thresholds if the first target approaches 1,335.40. This keeps the bullish scenario active in the short term. Let me point out that surpassing this level will extend the gains to reach 1,365.97. Besides, holding above 1,316.48 is an important condition for extending the rally. If a rally is interrupted, it will push the price to visit 1,301.20 levels before any new attempt to rise. The expected trading range for today is between 1,316.00 support and 1,340.00 resistance.

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Daily analysis of Silver for February 13, 2018

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Overview

Silver price begins to test the key resistance 16.56. As we mentioned in our recent reports, breaching this level is required to confirm extending the bullish wave towards 17.43. Please note that stochastic is generating a positive signal now to provide momentum that we are waiting for. So, the price has gained fresh impetus to breach the mentioned level. Therefore, we keep our bullish overview for the upcoming sessions on condition that the price is holding above 16.10. The expected trading range for today is between 16.40 support and 16.80 resistance.

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