What will Riyadh do for $ 80?

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According to official sources in OPEC, Saudi Arabia's new budget has been drawn up at the rate of $ 95 per barrel of oil. However, the Saudi authorities will be happy and $ 80 - $ 85, in this case, no longer have to use financial reserves.

To cover the estimated costs, the Saudis intend to cut crude oil exports by 800 thousand barrels per day from November levels. In December 2018, the kingdom sold about 7.3 million barrels per day outside its state, compared with 7.9 million recorded in November and 7.7 million in October.

The hardest hit exports to America. This plan goes beyond the commitments under the OPEC + agreements reached a month ago. Then the Saudis agreed to reduce production by 2.5% from October marks, starting in January, then the bar was raised to 3%. At the same time, the planned reduction in supply (an important component of the proposal affecting the global oil markets) as a whole will lead to a drop in the export figure by 7.8%.

Representatives of the cartel realistically assess the situation and recognize that new attempts to revive the black gold market are unlikely to bring the desired results in the short term. However, they allow the restoration of quotations to $ 80 in the second half of the year due to an increase in demand.

After the publication of The Wall Street Journal announced the plans of Saudi Arabia to expand the volume of export cuts, oil went up. By Tuesday, February Brent futures, trading at the end of December below $ 50 a barrel, nearly reached $ 59, adding about 8% in price. The WTI mark went up by 1.43% per day and by 11.6% compared to December 31, to $ 49.14 per barrel.

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Oil traders also hope for a positive outcome of trade negotiations between the US and China, which started on Monday. Completion of the "war of duties" will support the world economy and, as a result, the demand for raw materials.

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Oil accelerated appreciation amid a recovery in stock markets

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The cost of oil continues to rise amid a recovery in stock markets. Positive on the markets brought the beginning of trade negotiations between the United States and China in Beijing. Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang said that the Chinese authorities are hoping for mutual respect in resolving trade contradictions.

As a result, stock exchanges in Europe and the United States started to grow, and this provided support to oil quotes. According to the data of the auction, yesterday Brent price reached $ 58.80 per barrel, and today it slightly corrected to the area of $ 58.50 per barrel.

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Fundamental Analysis of GBP/USD for January 8, 2019

GBP/USD recently jumped impulsively higher above 1.2700-50 resistance area, engulfing the previous bearish pressure in the process. The BREXIT deal is still quite uncertain. USD is struggling for gains amid the recent economic reports. Thus, temporary weakness of USD enabled GBP to gain certain momentum.

Ahead of BREXIT, assets worth $1 trilling (800 billion pounds) are being shifted to the European Union before the deal is approved. According to UK Financial Services leader Omar Ali, as the Brexit deadline of 29th March 2019 is approaching and the deal is not settled yet, the more assets will be transferred and relocated. Moreover, after BREXIT UK financial firms will be affected due to hardship of business with the European Union. On the other hand, approval of PM Theresa May's deal is expected to trigger higher volatility in the market which might nudge GBP to lose grounds in the coming days. Today UK Halifax HPI report was published with a significant increase to 2.2% from the previous value of -1.2% which was expected to be at 0.5%. The positive economic result helped the currency to sustain momentum against USD ahead of high impact US events this week.

On the other hand, USD has been weighed down due to worse-than-expected employment reports published recently. Additionally, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI report showed a decrease to 57.6 from the previous figure of 60.7 which was expected to be at 59.6. The worse economic print put a lid on USD gains, helping GBP to sustain the bullish momentum in the pair. Ahead of FED Chairman Powell's speech and FOMC Meeting this week, the pair could trade with higher volatility this week.

Meanwhile, GBP has found support from solid fundamentals. It is expected to assert strength for a certain period against USD until any downbeat fundamental related to BREXIT affects the overall economic health of the UK. Though USD may regain momentum in the long run, upbeat economic data and optimistic economic expectations for the upcoming reports from the UK are going to inject some bullish pressure in the pair.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing above 1.2700-50 area with certain bullish pressure, while rejecting the bearish momentum consistently. The price has formed a V-shaped bullish pattern which is expected to push the price higher towards 1.2950-1.30 resistance area in the coming days. As the price remains above 1.2700 with a daily close, the pair is expected to retain the bullish pressure.

SUPPORT: 1.2700-50

RESISTANCE: 1.2850, 1.2950, 1.30

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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BITCOIN Analysis for January 8, 2019

Bitcoin has been correcting itself in a downward sloping Channel-based structure which made the price to retrace towards $4,000 area before pushing higher. The price recently bounced off the Kumo Cloud support while also being held by the dynamic levels like 20 EMA, Tenkan, and Kijun line as support. The Chikou span is currently breaking above the price line which also indicates further bullish pressure in the coming days. Bitcoin being above $4,000 area with a daily close is expected to lead the price higher towards $4,250, $4,500 and later towards $5,000 area respectively.

SUPPORT: 3,500, 3,600, 4,000

RESISTANCE: 4,250, 4,500, 5,000

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Financial companies withdrew more than $ 1 trillion from the UK

Experts of the British audit and consulting company Ernst & Young (EY) calculated that While waiting for the UK to leave the EU, financial companies withdrew about 800 billion pounds sterling worth more than $1 trillion from the country.

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The EY analysts investigated public statements of 222 of the largest participants in the UK financial market, tracking the dynamics since the completion of the Brexit referendum in June 2016.

The most optimistic estimate suggests that banks and other financial institutions transferred to the rest of the European Union economic operations, staff and assets of customers in the amount of 800 billion pounds sterling (over $1 trillion).

Experts noted that they only calculated public data, hence, the values obtained may be underestimated while the actual data may significantly exceed the calculations of analysts. However, many companies did not publish data on the value of assets.

In addition, EY analysts believe that in the current environment, financial companies need to prepare for the Brexit scenario without an agreement.

Earlier, representatives of the Bank of England declared that a British exit from the EU without an agreement on conditions of access to a single market would have more disastrous consequences than the 2008 financial crisis.

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/JPY for January 8, 2019

USD/JPY has been quite impulsive amid the bearish pressure recently which pushed the price towards 104.50 support area from where strong bullish pressure pushed the price above 108.50. After the recent rate hike in the US, employment reports were not quite as expected which enabled the US currency to lose ground against JPY.

Ahead of FED Chairman Powell's speech on Thursday this week, FED's rate setting policy committee member Bostic recently commented on the monetary policy agenda for 2019. Citing Bostic, the rapid growth of US economy in 2018 encouraged the central bank to raise rates four times in a year which made certain businesses lose their confidence. If the FED continues to increase interest rate at the same pace as in 2018, it would leave a fallout on the domestic economy. Though Bostic admitted that the FED is going to lift interest rates at least once in 2019. It will have its great impact on the overall economic growth this year. Recently, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI report was published with a decrease to 57.6 from the previous figure of 60.7 which was expected to be at 59.6. The worse economic result did not quite affect the USD gains over JPY but put the market into certain indecision ahead of FOMC Meeting Minutes and FED Chairman Powell's speech this week.

On the other hand, JPY has been quite hurt by the economic reports this week which lead to certain gains on the USD side. Recently Japan's Monetary Base report was published with a decrease to 4.8% from the previous value of 6.1% which was expected to be at 5.8%. Today Japan's Consumer Confidence also decreased to 42.7 from the previous figure of 42.9 which was expected to be at 42.8. Ahead of a series of economic reports this week, including Average Cash Earnings and Current Account report which are expected to show higher readings, JPY may lose further grounds against USD.

Meanwhile, market sentiment on USD is being indecisive but optimistic. Despite some recent downbeat data from the US, USD is currently in a better shape than JPY. After the holidays JPY started the year with waning momentum and dovish reports which might lead to certain weakness for the currency against USD in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing above 108.50 with a daily close which is expected to reach 110.50 resistance area in the coming days from where if any bullish rejection is observed, the price is expected to push lower towards 104.50-105.00 support area in the future. The price is currently residing quite far from the dynamic level of 20 EMA which indicates a retracement before continuing with the bearish trend in the future. As the price remains below 110.50 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

SUPPORT: 104.50, 105.00, 108.50

RESISTANCE: 110.50, 114.50, 115.00

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Business sentiment in the eurozone declined sharply

The data of the European Commission showed that business sentiment in the eurozone deteriorated markedly, which was a new sign of the weakness of the bloc's economy. this was the end of the year in December when optimism fell every month.

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More gloomy expectations have partly reflected a decline in confidence in industrial production. For example, there has been a decline in industrial production for three months in a row in Germany, the largest economy in the eurozone. As a result, given the weak prospects for economic growth, business sentiment fell to 107.3 points in the last month of this year compared to 109.5 points in November, which was the lowest monthly indicator since January 2017. Economists had expected a less sharp drop, to 108.2 points. Moods in the industrial sector fell to 1.1 points in December from 3.4 in the previous month, while the forecast was 2.9 points.

Consumer sentiment also fell sharply to -6.2 points in December from -3.9 in November, but this did not prevent buyers from purchasing more goods since retail sales continued to grow in November. Consequently, retail trade confidence rose by 0.5 points in December, although it could not smooth out the general gloomy moods. In the service sector, the indicator fell to 1.4 points. The Business sentiment confirms the expectations of economists, who predicted a slowdown in the growth of the eurozone in the last quarter of the year after GDP growth fell to 0.2 percent in the third quarter from 0.4 percent in the period from April to June.

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What will help the euro break the mark of $ 1.15?

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By consolidating in a 200-point-wide channel for most of the past two months, the main currency pair is preparing to break the mark of 1.15. Traders were delighted with the sharp recovery of retail in Germany and the Euroblock, but the production sector is still not in the best condition. In November, orders for manufactured goods dropped immediately by 1%, while the forecast suggested a decline of only 0.1%.

It is worth paying attention to new unrest in France and Hungary, which cause not only political and social problems. Under the blow, the growth of the economy of France and the eurozone as a whole.

Today's reports on industrial production and trust in the eurozone can be harmful, but the main factor is risk appetite. If the stock market continues to recover, the EURUSD pair will most likely not pay attention to macrostatistics and may pass through the mark of 1.15.

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As for the pound, its weakness is a normal condition. The next two weeks will be crucial for the British economy and currency. On Thursday, parliamentarians begin debates on the draft Brexit deal from Prime Minister Theresa May, the vote will be held next week. If the parliament does not support T. May, the country faces a tough exit from the European Union on March 29. Such a scenario, according to the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney, will cause a 25% collapse in the pound. M. Carney is expected to share concerns about this in his speech on Wednesday. This week there will be several UK economic releases, but the Brexit theme will eclipse them.

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Meanwhile, the publication of The Telegraph, citing three different sources in the EU, reported that the British side is seeking to postpone the deadline for leaving the group from March 29 to a later date. Officially, this is not the question.

Market participants do not yet know how to react to the proposed Brexit delay. On the one hand, there will be a period of uncertainty. On the other hand, such steps will increase the chances that British politicians will begin to probe the ground for a second referendum, the possibility of which was rejected by T. May. If for the British Prime Minister the postponement of Brexit is negative, then on the whole this event seems to be the lesser of two evils.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for January 8, 2019

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Since mid-November, Successive Lower Highs were demonstrated around the price levels of 1.3060, 1.2920 and 1.2800 maintaining movement within the depicted H4 bearish channel

Shortly after, a quick bearish decline was demonstrated towards the price level of 1.2500 before bullish recovery could take place on December 12.

A bullish Head & Shoulders pattern was demonstrated on the H4 chart with neckline located around 1.2650-1.2680. Hence, a successful bullish breakout above the depicted bearish channel was demonstrated on December 24.

On December 31, early bullish breakout attempt above 1.2720 was demonstrated on the H4 chart. However, the market failed to maintain sufficient bullish momentum above 1.2800 (mid-range of the depicted consolidation range).

That's why, another bearish pullback was executed towards 1.2500 (backside of the broken channel) where significant bullish recovery was demonstrated during last Thursday's consolidations.

Today, another bullish breakout above 1.2720 is being attempted to resume the bullish scenario of the market towards 1.2800, 1.2880 and 1.3000. Otherwise, the pair remains trapped within the previous consolidation range (1.2500-1.2720).

Bullish persistence above 1.2720 is mandatory for buyers. Any bearish decline below 1.2600 invalidates the bullish scenario suggesting further bearish decline towards 1.2440.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for January 8, 2019

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On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair is demonstrating a long-term Head and Shoulders reversal pattern where the right shoulder is currently in progress.

On the Daily chart, the pair has been moving sideways with slight bearish tendency. Narrow sideway consolidations have been maintained within the depicted daily movement channel since June 2018.

On November 13, the EUR/USD demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the lower limit of the channel as well as the depicted demand zone came to meet the pair.

Bullish fixation above 1.1420 was needed to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1520. However, the market has demonstrated significant bearish rejection around 1.1420 few times so far.

That's why, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped below the price level of 1.1420 waiting for bullish breakout since November 5.

Today, another attempt of a bullish breakout above 1.1420 is being executed. Bullish persistence above 1.1420 enables further bullish advancement towards 1.1520 (the upper limit of the daily channel) and 1.1600 (October's High) as initial targets.

On the other hand, any decline below the key-level of 1.1420 brings more sideway consolidations down to 1.1260 again.

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Oil starts for health

If the fourth quarter and the whole of 2018 were the worst for black gold from October-December 2014 and from 2015, respectively, then the beginning of the new year Brent and WTI started for health. Market faith in the favorable impact on the prices of the OPEC production cuts and optimism regarding the US-China trade negotiations have allowed oil to add more than 8% to its value since early January. On hand, the bulls have played and "pigeon" rhetoric of Jerome Powell, who focused on the flexibility of the Fed in terms of unhurried inflation. Investors do not expect to repeat the exploits of the dollar in 2019, which allows them to look at the prospects of black gold with moderate optimism.

The active sales of Brent and WTI at the end of 2018 coincided with the collapse of US and global stock indices, which were catalyzed by the December meeting of the FOMC. Contrary to forecasts of a slowdown in the US economy, the central bank did not intend to pause the process of normalizing monetary policy. He obviously made a mistake, and Jerome Powell had to fix it in January. The Fed chairman cited the example of 2016, when instead of the planned four acts of monetary restriction, only one occurred. The reason is the slowdown of the Chinese and world economies. Investors took the hint and began to buy stocks, which is usually perceived as improving the global risk appetite and supporting oil prices. As a result, hedge funds and other speculators were fools who, after three weeks of building up net-long positions, began to reduce them.

Dynamics of Brent and speculative positions on oilInv-jAQVgnAbkpebmjI8Pel5wO9mRlJDen0cjLQXThe bears on black gold were inspired by the estimate of the consulting company JBC Energy, which expects growth in US production above 12 million b / s in early January, and weak statistics on business activity in the manufacturing and non-production sectors of the United States, indicating a slowdown in the US economy. In this scenario, global demand will be under threat. At the same time, a number of banks and financial companies began to actively reduce oil forecasts: Goldman Sachs, from $ 70 to $ 62.5 per barrel in three months, S & P Global Ratings, from $ 65 to $ 55 per barrel for the North Sea variety by an average of 2019.

At the same time, the International Energy Agency, as before, predicts an increase in global demand by 1.4 million b / s, which is significantly higher than in those times when black gold was quoted at $ 100 per barrel and higher. The gradual recovery of US stock indexes, the weakness of the US dollar, the reduction in OPEC production and excessively low speculative oil positions increase the risk of a correction to the current downward trend in Brent and WTI. The main thing is that the negotiations between Beijing and Washington should be completed successfully, and the fears of investors over the gloomy prospects of the world economy should not be resuscitated.

Technically, after reaching an intermediate target of 78.6% for the Shark pattern, the probability of correction of the North Sea variety in the direction of 23.6%, 38.2% and 50% of the CD wave increased.

Brent, the daily chart

DvmHwS59G1Npoj3-3TB1GvnBD6zLNhYgawM2Q-qKThe material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Euro could not stand the weak data but the dollar rose steadily after the holidays

The euro will continue to fall, as the eurozone economy is showing more and more signs of a slowdown. Meanwhile, the dollar will go up despite the Fed's possible caution, which may well halt the rate increase cycle.

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The unexpected decline in industrial production in Germany had a negative impact on the single currency. The fall, although modest, highlighted concerns about the ECB's confidence in the need to curtail incentive programs. It is worth noting that the decline in German industrial production has been observed for the third month in a row. Local exporters suffer from weak global demand and trade disputes caused by the policies of US President Donald Trump.

Weak data may interfere with the ECB's plans to tighten monetary policy and pull the euro down, which has already dropped to $ 1.1285. In general, the currency has been trading in a narrow range from 1.12 to 1.15 dollars since mid-November.

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The weakness of the euro supported the dollar but growing expectations that the Fed will stop its rate hike cycle put pressure on the US currency, which will be a decisive factor in the short term. Recalling what Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said, the regulator will monitor indicators and downward risks that affect markets. The prospect of further rate hike is likely to keep the dollar under pressure.

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The positive outcome of negotiations between the US and China will improve investor sentiment

After the New Year holidays, the main driver, which is pushing the growth in demand for risky assets, is still investors' hope that the next negotiations between Washington and Beijing on trade will be positive.

Negotiations were announced before the new year and began on Monday, and are expected to end on Tuesday. With them, the markets have high hopes, believing that their success will reduce trade tensions between the two strongest economies in the world, the American and the Chinese.

The latest economic statistics published in the People's Republic of China clearly indicate an intensification of the process of slowing the growth of the local economy. And the last values of the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector even began to show a negative trend. This situation prompted many investors to believe that Beijing could "break down" and bow to America, since for the time being the trade war between countries has had a negative effect on the Chinese economy, and recent data from the United States, in particular, employment figures show that the states are still far from noticeably negative, despite the first signals that have appeared earlier about the beginning of its inhibition.

An additional positive that supports the demand for risky assets is not only the positive picture from the US labor market that we mentioned above, but also the growing expectations that the Fed can complete the interest rate increase cycle this year. In any case, a sharp increase in major stock indices in America is precisely what this indicates.

Assessing the likely cumulative effect of the reasons mentioned above, it can be said that in a situation of normalization of sentiment in world markets, the US dollar may be under local noticeable pressure, primarily in relation to commodity and commodity currencies. The positive outcome of the negotiations between Washington and Beijing will lead to a marked strengthening of the Australian and New Zealand dollars. The Canadian currency, like the Russian one, may continue to strengthen against the dollar in the wake of rising oil prices and the resumption of increased investor interest in emerging markets (EM). With regard to the likely dynamics of the euro and sterling, as well as the Japanese yen, the first two will depend on the situation associated with Brexit, until it becomes clear what it really threatens Britain and continental Europe, so we should expect further consolidation against the dollar.

The yen, we believe, will be influenced by the overall development of the situation. The decline in demand for risk in the markets will strengthen it. The reverse picture will put pressure on it.

Forecast of the day

The currency pair AUD / USD is trading above the level of 0.7100. Positive news from talks between the US and China may push the pair to a local increase to 0.7240. Negative news will lead to its decline to 0.7015 after falling below the level of 0.7100.

The currency pair NZD / USD is trading above the level of 0.6700. The development of events in the pair will be similar, as in AUD / USD. Positive news from the negotiations will push the pair to 0.6800, and negative to 0.6620.

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In 2019 there will be no new highs on the crypto market — experts

According to experts, the likelihood for any cryptocurrency will be able to reach maximum values is extremely low in the coming year. They believe that the explosive growth of the price at which Bitcoin approached $ 20,000 and Ethereum worth almost $1500 is in the past.

Currently, cryptocurrency number 1 is trading at around $3,800, and the cost of the second largest digital currency has dropped to $150. Experts believe that a large-scale price reversal in the near future should not be expected.

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Analysts also record a decline in investor interest in the majority of new virtual currencies. They are confident that against the background of a general fall in the crypto market. We should expect less ICO activity. Currently, the market is dominated by a cautious approach to investing, experts emphasized.

This year, market participants expect tightening control by the regulatory authorities. Earlier, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of the United States filed charges against a number of wrongful actions in connection with a violation of the Securities Act. At the same time, due to the lack of clarity of the wording of the SEC, it took about a year to decide on the procedure for dealing with violators. According to analysts, in 2019, new claims from the department against ICO and digital exchanges are not excluded. All this scares potential investors. At the same time, the preservation of the "bearish" trend in the market forces investors to invest in safer and time-tested assets, such as gold and the US dollar.

The US Securities and Exchange Commission disapproves of ETF funds. The SEC emphasizes that this financial instrument can only be launched if it is proven impossible to manipulate this class of assets. At the moment, almost all crypto projects are under development, which makes them less stable than the SEC would like. Another requirement of the department is transparency, which also complicates the work of the SEC. Recall that confidentiality is considered to be one of the important principles of a crypto-active asset, which conflicts with the regulatory requirements of the SEC regarding the disclosure of the identities of participants in transactions.

Despite the "bearish" nature of the digital asset market, fans and cryptocurrency owners do not intend to abandon this class of assets. Many development teams are still working on creating an infrastructure for virtual currencies. Technological constraints require new solutions from highly qualified specialists.

A lot of teams are also working on the Ethereum project. Their priority is the implementation of a six-stage plan, thanks to which the new network Ethereum 2.0, or Serenity, will be launched. The launch of this update is scheduled for the fourth quarter of 2019. It provides for a transition from the "Proof of Doing Work" (PoW) protocol to the "Proof of Share of Ownership" (PoS).

Experts believe that most of these updates will not have a particular impact on cryptocurrency until 2020, but hope for the best. Experts are confident that the market for digital currencies will update a maximum not earlier than in two to three years when mass introduction and widespread use of innovative technologies will occur. Another scenario is a significant inflow of capital into the cryptosphere, which can provoke a new wave of cryptocurrency fever.

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Experts: "Canadian" still show

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Bank of Montreal (BMO) experts believe that in the coming months, the Canadian national currency will strengthen against the US dollar, despite the weaker growth of the country's economy and the slowdown in the pace of GDP growth of its main trading partner.

"At the end of last year, the Bank of Canada was forced to take a more cautious position due to the deterioration of a number of economic indicators. The rapid fall in oil prices also played an important role in this," the experts said.

"Meanwhile, it is the prospects for the development of the situation in the black gold market that allow us to look to the future with optimism. We believe that sales have already gone too far, and we see the potential for a recovery in commodity prices. The growth of oil prices should support the economy of Canada. Against this background, the country's central bank may raise the interest rate twice this year, making the differential rates of the United States and Canada remain relatively stable," they added.

According to the BMO forecast, at the end of the first quarter, the USD / CAD pair will trade near the level of 1.32, and by the end of the year will reach the level of 1.28.

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Precious metals: quotes will grow this year

Last year, the demand for gold and silver dropped significantly, aided by factors such as the tightening of the Fed policy and the rapid growth of the American economy. As a result, precious metals showed a negative price trend for a long time. Silver showed itself much worse compared to the yellow metal, which was mainly caused by strong volatility.

The trend may change this year. As a matter of fact, an increase in short-term interest rates no longer leads to the formation of new lows in precious metals quotes. Perhaps the lion's share of the negative is in the prices.

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It is worth noting that silver is widely used for industrial purposes, along with jewelry production and investment. If we talk about gold, the main demand is investment. In silver, there is now a physical metal deficiency, which is covered by accumulated reserves, which tend to decrease. Speculative sales at $ 14-16 are met with resistance from real demand, as well as ETF-funds, which vigorously increases investments in physical metal. As for gold, it is about $ 1150-1200 per ounce.

If the yellow metal trend keeps growing, then silver is under pressure. In recent years, many of the world's central banks, primarily in the Russian Federation and China, are actively replenishing gold reserves in order to diversify their reserves and reduce dependence on the US dollar. Silver does not belong to monetary metals, and since the middle of last year, it has simultaneously dropped in price together with other industrial metals, in particular with copper. Non-ferrous metal prices collapsed after Washington launched a full-scale trade war.

Now, looking at the positions of major players, we can talk about the great potential for further purchases of gold and silver. Recently, speculative sales have been holding back high demand from hedging participants who use low prices to make physical purchases, as real demand for precious metals began to increase.

Having passed the historical lows, the net long position began to grow the funds to close the shorts and increase purchases. This year, the Fed is expected to soften the policy due to concerns about the slow growth of the country's economy and sales in the stock market.

Since it is expected to reduce interest rates on medium and long-term US government bonds, the dollar will weaken against the basket of currencies and precious metals will go up. The target for gold in the new year is $ 1350-1400 per ounce and an ounce of silver will be valued at $17.5-18.

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Palladium is more precious than gold.

A separate topic deserves palladium, which continues to rally and remains in the spotlight. Thus, on January 4, for the first time in its entire history, it was valued above $1,300 per ounce, after it overtook gold in value a month ago.

The rise of palladium is due to fundamental factors such as the positive news about the US-PRC trade negotiations and comments by Jerome Powell.

In the next 12 months, the fundamental picture for palladium should remain positive. The growth rate of demand prevails over the supply.

Data from the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) showed that China accounts for 26% of the global demand for metals from the platinum group. Increased demand from consumers will continue to maintain a palladium deficit in the market.

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US and China: Progress in negotiations with China can support the US dollar. The growth potential of the euro is limited.

The US dollar continued to lose its position against the euro in the second half of the day on Monday, after data came out indicating activity in the US services sector in December of this year, which was growing at a much slower pace than expected. This indicates a worsening economic situation.

According to the Institute for Supply Management, the PMI Purchasing Managers Index for the non-manufacturing sector of the United States fell in December 2018 to 57.6 points versus 60.7 points in November, while economists had forecast a decrease in the index to 58.4 points. Let me remind you that the values of the index above 50 indicate an increase in activity.

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Fed Representatives

The statements that were made yesterday by representatives of the Federal Reserve have put only pressure on the US dollar, as once again confirmed concerns about the slower changes in US monetary policy this year.

Fed spokesman Bostic said that the US economy is in pretty good shape, and its growth prospects are positive. He also drew attention to the fact that if the suspension of the government continues, it could have a significant impact on the economy.

Let me remind you that for the third week in a row, part of the organizations of federal agencies in the United States is not working, while the White House is making more and more efforts to persuade public opinion in favor of building a wall on the border with Mexico, while Congress opposes additional financing for the construction of the wall that does not allow to accept the budget.

The representative of the Fed also noted that market volatility is a potential cause for concern, and therefore, it is likely that a slowdown in GDP growth in 2019. According to Bostic, the neutral level of interest rates is in the range of 2.5% -3.25%, however this year he expects only one increase in them.

Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester also spoke yesterday, who confirmed that the central bank would be more flexible in raising interest rates this year, since inflation remains at a fairly moderate level, and economic growth is slowing.

US and China Negotiations

Meanwhile, during today's Asian session, the US dollar regained some positions after the United States and China embarked on two-day talks to resolve the trade conflict between countries. If a representative of the two countries manages to agree on the details that will allow Beijing to fulfill its promises, the demand for the US dollar may return, as such news will stimulate the future growth rates of the US economy, as well as provide medium-term support for the dollar.

We are talking about promises with the Chinese side to resume China's purchase of American goods and services, as well as to facilitate access for American companies to Chinese markets.

As for the technical picture of the EUR / USD currency pair, a downward correction is gradually maturing, which will be restrained by large support levels around 1.1400 and 1.1350. It is best of all to consider short positions in risky assets after unsuccessful attempts to return to a trading instrument for resistance to 1.1470.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD. January 8. The trading system. "Regression Channels". In Britain, they are preparing for a "tough" Brexit.

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: 85.8275

The currency pair GBP / USD on Tuesday, January 8, maintains an upward mood. All losses of the pair dated January 2 have already been restored, so, as in the case of the euro currency, the question arises: which way to go further? On the one hand, there are no grounds for a new growth of the pound sterling, especially in the run-up to the Parliament's vote on Brexit, which will be held on January 15. On the other hand, there are no new reasons for the fall of the pound either, since again, nothing has been decided and understood by Brexit. Therefore, we believe that, at least until January 15, the pair will continue to trade between the levels of 1.2756 and 1.2512. Theresa May, meanwhile, led the Cabinet Committee on preparing the country for the "tough" version of Brexit. The work of this committee will be related to the preparation of the government to leave the EU without agreement, as well as contact with the authorities of the EU countries. From our point of view, this is a very remarkable event, as it seems that Theresa May has resigned herself to the fact that Parliament will not accept her Brexit bill. Against the background of this information, up to January 15, the pound sterling can just show a moderate decline, but everything will be decided on January 15, when it becomes unequivocally clear what awaits the UK in the coming years.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.2756

S2 - 1.2695

S3 - 1.2634

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.2817

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD continues to move up. Now, thus, relevant buy-positions with a view to 1.2817. The color of the Heikin Ashi indicator 1-2 bars in blue color will indicate a correction and will serve as a signal for manual closure of long positions.

It is recommended to open short positions only after traders have overcome moving averages. In this case, the trend in the instrument in the short term to change to a downward, and the targets will be the levels of 1.2634 and 1.2573.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Brexit: the new strategy of the British premiere

Tomorrow, the deputies of the House of Commons will resume the debate on the draft agreement on the withdrawal of Britain from the EU. Approximately, they will last until the beginning of the next week, whereas the voting itself should take place on January 15.

However, it is impossible to talk about this with certainty: Brexit is still in limbo. Meanwhile, Theresa May assured the public over the weekend that she would not postpone the voting date again but some experts doubt it. Indeed, since she postponed the December meeting, little has changed. Dozens of conservatives are still not ready to support the proposed deal.

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Apparently, the prime minister is betting on the parliamentary fear of the chaotic Brexit but this strategy can be not that good, given the number of conservatives who voted at the end of last year for a vote of no confidence in the current government. Let me remind you that May's opposition party wing of party members has risen to 117 deputies. This result completely leveled optimism about the final result of the vote. And this is understandable, the prime minister needs to consolidate not only the absolute number of conservatives but also attract 10 more members of parliament to his side in order to approve the Brexit deal.

It is also worth noting that the "ordinary" members of the Conservative Party, who do not occupy any positions, also do not support the Theresa May deal. At least, this is evident in the results of a sociological survey conducted last week. Thus, almost 60% of 1,215 respondents from Tory were against this agreement, according to the influential agency YouGov. Moreover, almost 80% of them called the risks in the chaotic Brexit "exaggerated or made-up". This is bad news for May supporters. For now, the Euro-skeptics from the Conservative Party must go against not only their political convictions but also the opinion of the majority of party members. Last year, representatives of the Labor Party categorically refused to "lend" to the cabinet of ministers.

In other words, the situation has stalled again. May continues to aggravate the situation, reinforcing the fears of tough Brexit, in particular, she created and headed the new government committee, which is responsible for preparing the Cabinet of Ministers for the country's withdrawal from the European Union if London and Brussels cannot finally agree on the terms of the agreement. According to the representative of the prime minister, the committee will develop a "complex of emergency measures" in the financial, trade, customs, immigration and other areas in the case of the chaotic Brexit.

The creation of this committee can be viewed as a political move on the eve of a key vote since previously, the same committee dealt with issues of exit from the EU (although it did not have so much authority). Therefore, traders actually ignored this fact and focused on possible scenarios for developments in the coming days.

One option is the Brexit to be postponed indefinitely is less likely. The European Court allowed this option at the end of 2018, explaining the provisions of the 50th article of the Lisbon Treaty. However, Theresa May and the British Brexit Minister Stephen Barkley categorically rejected this option. Actually, like the option of a repeated referendum. By the way, the likelihood of a new referendum was largely reduced after the Laborists did not support this idea to the surprise of many Britons. The Labor Party leader said he supports Brexit but on completely different terms. In other words, the option of re-plebiscite has sunk into oblivion.

There is another script. According to the British press, Theresa May's team is developing a plan according to which parliament will approve the deal but on condition that the European Union provides additional concessions. Thus, the "ball" will again be on the side of the EU and the fate of the "divorce process" will depend on Brussels.

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It is difficult to say now how realistic this plan is, given the fact that at the end of last year the European Union refused to sign any additional conditions regarding the validity period of the backstop. However, just today, Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar announced that Brussels is ready to provide "new written guarantees" regarding the Northern Ireland border. It is likely that this issue will be solved at the last moment, especially if the British force Europeans to make concessions. In my opinion, this is the most realistic scenario, given the dubious "viability" of the other scenarios. Obviously, the majority of politicians and deputies (British and European) least want to feel the consequences of the chaotic Brexit, hence, the likelihood of making a key decision at the last moment is quite high.

In the context of the foreign exchange market, the pound was again taken hostage by uncertainty. If the deputies on January 15 vote for the deal but with reservations, the British will still remain under pressure. This suggests that the impulse jumps in the price of GBP/USD must be treated with caution - the position of Brussels can neutralize the initial optimism. In general, trading pounds before a key vote is not the best trading idea, given the precariousness of political structures.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. January 8. The trading system. "Regression Channels". The level of 1.1475 prevents bulls to new heights

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: 75.6540

The EUR / USD currency pair has completed Murray's level of "8/8" - 1.1475 for the fourth time, again failed to consolidate above it and rebounded from it. Thus, it is now possible to reduce the pair to the moving average line. As we have said more than once, the growth of the euro currency now has a limited potential, since there are no weighty reasons for the increased demand for the euro currency. Moreover, the area of 1.1440 - 1.1475 now acts as a powerful resistance for the tool. There is also a wide side channel inside which the pair has been trading for several weeks. Based on all these considerations, it is logical to expect a decline in the pair to the area of Murray level of "3/8" - 1.1322. From a fundamental point of view, there is nothing special to note now. On the first trading day of the week, there were no important macroeconomic publications and reports. Today, January 8, the news calendar is also almost empty. On the subject of Brexit, there was no news, the suspension of government work in the States, from our point of view, is not something out of the ordinary, this happens in America, and Jerome Powell said that he was not going to resign, even if asked by the president of the United States. Thus, now a very interesting time comes for the pair, when the fall of January 2 is leveled, and the question arises: what is next?

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1444

S2 - 1.1414

S3 - 1.1383

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1475

R2 - 1,1505

R3 - 1.1536

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair has begun to adjust, as indicated by the Heikin Ashi blue bars. Thus, it is recommended to open new long positions with a view to 1.1475 after Heikin Ashi reversal upward when the price is above the moving average line.

Orders for sale can be viewed not earlier fixing the pair below the moving average line with targets at 1.1383 and 1.1353. Given the presence of a pair in the side channel, it is best not to open orders in large lots.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified wave analysis of USD / CHF for January 8

Large-scale graphics:

Since February last year, a rising wave has been formed on the franc major chart. The first 2 parts of the wave (A-B) are fully completed. Since September, the wave zigzag of the final part (C) develops.

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Medium scale graphics:

From November 13, the price of the pair moves down, forming a correctional part (B) in a larger wave. Quotes are approaching at the upper boundary of the preliminary target zone.

Small-scale graphics:

From December 28, an upward wave zigzag began to form on the chart, which over time could become a reversal pattern.

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Forecast and recommendations:

The upcoming weekly period may be the final for the current decline. Sales have little potential. When the price reaches the settlement support, you should pay attention to the reversal signals to search for entry into long trades.

Resistance zones:

- 0.9950 / 1.0000

Support areas:

- 0.9760 / 0.9710

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). For analysis, 3 consecutive graphs are used. Each of them analyzes the last, incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of the divergence of EUR / USD for January 8. Bearish divergence works in favor of the US dollar.

4h

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The EUR / USD currency pair reversed in favor of the US currency after the formation of a bearish divergence at the CCI indicator and a return to the correction level of 38.2% - 1.1446. The closing of quotes on January 8 under the Fibo level of 38.2% will work in favor of continuing the fall of the pair in the direction of the next correction level of 23.6% - 1.1358. The rebound of the pair from the Fibo level of 38.2% will make it possible to expect a turn in favor of the EU currency and the resumption of growth in the direction of the correction level of 50.0% - 1.1517.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from September 24, 2018, and November 12, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the currency pair continues to trade along the correction level of 127.2% - 1.1285, maintaining growth prospects in the direction of 100.0% - 1.1553. There are no ripening divergences on January 8th. Rebounding quotes from the Fibo level of 100.0% will make it possible to expect a reversal in favor of the US currency and a slight drop in the direction of the correction level of 127.2%. Fixing the pair above the Fibo level of 100.0% will increase the chances of further growth in the direction of the next correction level of 76.4% - 1.1789.

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

You can make purchases of the EUR / USD currency pair with a target of 1.1517 and a Stop Loss order under the Fibo level of 38.2% if the pair bounces off the level of 1.1446.

Sales of the EUR / USD currency pair can be made with the target of 1.1358 with a Stop Loss order above the Fibo level of 38.2% if the pair closes below the correction level of 1.1446.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for January 08, 2019

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Trading recommendations:

According to the 30M time - frame, I found that BTC broke the bullish flag patten in the background, which is a sign that buyers are in control. I have also found a strong impulsive move in the background, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of $4.050 and at the price of $4.186.

Support/Resistance

$4.050 – Intraday resistance

$3.930– Intraday support

$4.050 – Objective target 1

$4.186 – Objective target 2

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of GBP / USD Divergences for January 8th. The pound is preparing for a reversal after the euro.

4h

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The GBP / USD currency pair on the 4-hour chart continues the process of growth in the direction of the correctional level of 76.4% - 1.2812. A bearish divergence near the MACD indicator is brewing on January 8. Its education will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the American currency and a slight drop in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% - 1.2662. Rebounding quotes from the Fibo level of 76.4% will similarly work in favor of the beginning of the fall of the pair.

The Fibo grid was built on extremes from August 15, 2018, and September 20, 2018.

1h

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On the hourly chart, the quotes of the pair reversed in favor of the US dollar, after the formation of the bearish divergence at the MACD indicator, and began to fall in the direction of the correction level of 76.4% - 1.2725. The passage of the pair of the last divergence peak will work in favor of continuing growth in the direction of the correctional level of 100.0% - 1.2815. Fixing quotes above the Fibo level of 100.0% will increase the likelihood of further growth in the direction of the next correction level of 127.2% - 1.2916.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from December 31, 2018, and January 3, 2019.

Recommendations to traders:

New purchases of the GBP / USD currency pair can be made with a target of 1.2815 and a Stop Loss order below the level of 76.4% if the pair bounces off of the level of 1.2725 (hourly chart).

Sales of the GBP / USD currency pair can be carried out with the target of 1.2725 and a Stop Loss order above the level of 100.0% if the pair bounces off of the level of 1.2815 (hourly chart).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fractal analysis of major currency pairs on January 8

Dear colleagues.

For the currency pair Euro / Dollar, we follow the development of the upward cycle of January 2. For the currency pair Pound / Dollar, the continuation of the development of the ascending structure from January 2 and we expect 1.2813 after the breakdown. For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, after the abolition of the ascending structure, we follow the development of the downward cycle of January 2. For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, we expect a movement to the level of 108.95 and we follow the development of the structure on the scale of M30. For the Euro / Yen currency pair, the continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of 125.14. For the currency pair Pound / Yen, we also continue to follow the development of the upward structure from January 3 and the level of 139.50 is the key resistance.

Forecast for January 8:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:CRpVPX_y09JoCNleYUT-k80D2exUptTdE_psJJyQFor the Euro / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.1578, 1.1554, 1.1519, 1.1492, 1.1451, 1.1428 and 1.1401. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure from January 2. The short-term upward movement, possibly in the range of 1.1492 - 1.1519 and the breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the goal is 1.1554. We consider the level of 1.1578 to be a potential value for the top, after reaching which, we expect a consolidated movement, as well as a departure to a correction.

The short-term downward movement, possibly in the range of 1.1451 - 1.1428 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged movement. Here, the target is 1.1401 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the ascending structure of January 2.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1492 Take profit: 1.1515

Buy 1.1523 Take profit: 1.1554

Sell: 1.1451 Take profit: 1.1430

Sell: 1.1425 Take profit: 1.1404s20FFmB8KSicz16ZSMuXeeYuaPT8DXCNK7zgz3DLFor the Pound / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.2960, 1.2875, 1.2813, 1.2734, 1.2695 and 1.2645. Here, we are following the ascending structure of January 2. The continuation of the movement to the top, we expect after the breakdown of 1.2813. In this case, the target is 1.2875 and in the range of 1.2813 - 1.2875 is the consolidation of the price. The potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.2960, after reaching which, we expect a rollback to the bottom.

The short-term downward movement, possibly in the range of 1.2734 - 1.2695 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 1.2645 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the ascending structure of January 2.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2815 Take profit: 1.2870

Buy: 1.2877 Take profit: 1.2940

Sell: 1.2734 Take profit: 1.2698

Sell: 1.2690 Take profit: 1.2660YwvAbihSCSFIzJQ7rJZM_UmF-lRaaQ4owU6YJRAIFor the Dollar / Franc currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 0.9864, 0.9834, 0.9816, 0.9786, 0.9767, 0.9742 and 0.9725. Here, after the abolition of the ascending structure, we are following the development of the downward movement of January 2. The short-term downward movement, possibly in the range of 0.9786 - 0.9767 and the breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the goal is 0.9742. The potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.9725, after reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as rollback to the top.

The short-term uptrend, possibly in the range of 0.9816 - 0.9834 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 0.9864 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of January 2.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9816 Take profit: 0.9832

Buy: 0.9836 Take profit: 0.9860

Sell: 0.9784 Take profit: 0.9769

Sell: 0.9765 Take profit: 0.9746nzCxRDlhk6fZRUgE_1Mk83BteMbMdT65Yx9seTaaFor the Dollar / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are 110.12, 109.58, 109.21, 108.95, 108.63, 108.19, 107.93 and 107.52. Here, we are following the ascending structure of January 3 on the scale of M30. The continuation of the movement to the top, we expect after the breakdown of 108.63. In this case, the goal is 108.95 and the passage at the price of the range of 108.95 - 109.21 will allow us to expect a movement to the level of 109.58, near which we expect consolidation. The potential value for the top, we consider the level of 110.12, after reaching which, we expect a rollback to the bottom.

The short-term downward movement, possibly in the range of 108.19 - 107.93 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 107.52 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the rising structure of January 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 108.65 Take profit: 108.95

Buy: 109.21 Take profit: 109.58

Sell: 108.19 Take profit: 107.95

Sell: 107.90 Take profit: 107.54jZxdNfMae5vCh4fgmzGKBNKBLb3h4JHWzd_5rjMOFor the Canadian dollar / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3395, 1.3353, 1.3320, 1.3271, 1.3201, 1.3150 and 1.3065. Here, we continue to monitor the downward structure of December 31. The continuation of the movement to the bottom, we expect after the breakdown of 1.3270. In this case, the goal is 1.3201 and in the range of 1.3201 - 1.3150 is the short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.3065, after reaching which, we expect a rollback to the correction.

The short-term upward movement, possibly in the range of 1.3320 - 1.3353 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a deep correction. Here, the target is 1.3395 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of December 31.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3320 Take profit: 1.3350

Buy: 1.3355 Take profit: 1.3395

Sell: 1.3270 Take profit: 1.3205

Sell: 1.3200 Take profit: 1.3153

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For the Australian dollar / dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 0.7207, 0.7157, 0.7131, 0.7084, 0.7059 and 0.7019. Here, we are following the ascending structure of January 3. The short-term upward movement, we expect in the range of 0.7131 - 0.7157 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a movement to the potential target. Here, the target is 0.7207, from this level, we expect a rollback to the bottom.

The short-term downward movement, perhaps in the range of 0.7084 - 0.7059 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.7019 and this level is the key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the ascending structure of January 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7131 Take profit: 0.7155

Buy: 0.7160 Take profit: 0.7205

Sell: 0.7082 Take profit: 0.7060

Sell: 0.7055 Take profit: 0.7024

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For the Euro / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 127.22, 126.70, 125.79, 125.15, 124.22, 123.74 and 123.05. Here, we are following the ascending structure of January 3. The continuation of the movement to the top, we expect after the breakdown of 125.15. In this case, the goal is 125.79 and near this level is the price consolidation. The breakdown of 125.80 must be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the goal is 126.70. The potential value for the top, we consider the level of 127.22, after reaching which, we expect a consolidated movement, as well as a rollback to the bottom.

The short-term downward movement, possibly in the range of 124.22 - 123.74 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 123.05 and this level is the key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the ascending structure of January 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 125.15 Take profit: 125.76

Buy: 125.82 Take profit: 126.70

Sell: 124.20 Take profit: 123.78

Sell: 123.70 Take profit: 123.10

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For the Pound / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 141.90, 140.50, 139.49, 137.49, 136.81 and 135.70. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of January 3. The continuation of the movement to the top, we expect after the breakdown of 139.50. In this case, the first goal is 140.50 and near this level is the consolidation. The potential value for the top, we consider the level of 141.90, after reaching which, we expect a rollback to the bottom.

The short-term downward movement, possibly in the range of 137.49 - 136.81 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 135.70 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the ascending structure of January 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 139.55 Take profit: 140.50

Buy: 140.55 Take profit: 141.60

Sell: 137.45 Take profit: 136.85

Sell: 136.75 Take profit: 136.00

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD analysis for January 08, 2019

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading sideways at the price of 1.2750. According to the M15 time – frame, I have found that GBP/USD is in a compression mode, which is a sign that there is a potential change from bullish to bearish. I have also found a hidden bearish divergence on the the MACD oscillator and a breakout of the upward trendline, which is another sign of weakness. Watch for selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.2714 and at the price of 1.2618.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of Gold for January 08, 2019

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Recently, Gold has been trading downwards as I expected. The price tested the level of $1,281.00. According to the H1 time – frame, I have found that price breached the rising wedge pattern and upward channel in the background, which is a sign that sellers are in control. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $1,276.45 and at the price of $1,264.38.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for January 08, 2019

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Overview:

Pivot: 0.6882.

The NZD/USD pair breached resistance which had turned into strong support at the level of 0.6705 this week. The level of 0.6705 coincides with a golden ratio (61.8% of Fibonacci), which is expected to act as major support today. The RSI is considered to be overbought, because it is above 70. The RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it is still strong above the moving average (100). Besides, note that the pivot point is seen at the point of 0.6882. This suggests that the pair will probably go up in the coming hours. Accordingly, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. In other words, buy orders are recommended to be placed above 0.6800 with the first target at the level of 0.6882. From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.6882 and further to the level of 0.6984. The level of 0.6984 will act as strong resistance. On the other hand, if there is a breakout at the support level of 0.6705, this scenario may become invalidated.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for January 08, 2019

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Overview:

The GBP/USD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.2728. Yesterday, the pair rose from the level of 1.2728 to a top around 1.2780. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.2814 followed by 1.2888, while daily support 1 is seen at 1.2728. According to the previous events, the GBP/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.2728 and 1.2888; so we expect a range of 160 pips.

Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level at 1.2814, we should see the pair climbing towards the double top (1.2888) to test it.

Therefore, buy above the level of 1.2728 with the first target at 1.2814 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 1.2888. Also, it might be noted that the level of 1.2888 is a good place to take profit because it will form a major resistance today. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the GBP/USD pair breaks through the support level of 1.2728, a further decline to 1.2670 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.

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Forecast for GBP / USD pair on January 8, 2019

GBP / USD pair

Yesterday, the British Prime Minister Theresa May announced the exact date of parliamentary voting on an agreement with the EU on January 15. Market participants probably decided that they still had a week left and raised the pound by 60 points after the general weakening of the dollar. The price has moved above the balance line on a daily scale. Now, there is an intention to work out the MACD line around 1.2847. It makes no sense to overcome this level for no apparent reason, as growth towards the next resistance - an embedded line in the price channel at 1.3046 - is hardly possible in a week.

Thus, we are still waiting for the last price spurt to 1.2847, after which it is possible to decline to 1.2690 with an attempt to overcome the support.

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