Bitcoin analysis for May 01, 2019

BTC has traded upward as we expected. The price tested the level of $5.610. Anyway, there is a strong resistance near $5.610 and our advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Purple rectangle – Swing high (resistance)

Smaller yellow channel – short-term channel

BTC did stop going upward exactly at the resistance and the upper diagonal of the channel ($5.610), which is sign that buying looks risky at this stage. Support levels are seen at the price of $5.444 and $5.346. The larger yellow channel is still active and the trend is still bullish but with no serious demand involved, which may result further near-term weakness. Watch for selling opportunities with the first target at $5.444.

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EUR./USD analysis for May 01, 2019

EURUSD traded higher as we expected yesterday. The price tested the level of 1.1239. The bearish divergence on the oscillator is building but the price is still trading in the well-defined upward channel.

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Orange rectangle – 20EMA acting like support

Green lines – Upward channel

Purple rectangle – Strong resistance based on price action

EURUSD is trading near the lower upward diagonal and at the previous day high at 1.1223, which act like support. Technically, there is no serious signs of potential trend reverse and only potential downside limited correction is possible. The EUR is making higher highs and higher lows, which is clear sign of well-defined trend. Resistance levels are seen at the price of 1.1260 and 1.1280. Support levels are seen at the price of 1.1223 and 1.1195. Watch for buying opportunities and the break of the 1.1240 would confirm potential test of 1.1260-1.1280.

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Analysis of Gold for May 01, 2019

Gold did test again the key short-term support cluster at the price of $1.278. We expect further upward movement and potential test of upper references.

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Yellow rectangle – Short-term resistance, which became key support

Blue moving average – 20EMA acting like support

Green rectangle – Resistance based on price action

Green rectangle – Resistance 2 based on price action

Green rectangle – Resistance 3 based on price action

According to the H4 time-frame, we found the breakout of the supply trendline and the rejection of key support (yellow rectangle). Which is sign that buyers are still present. Our advice is to watch for buying opportunities. Upward references are set at the price of $1.294.30, $1.300.95 and $1.310.00. As long as the Gold is trading above the $1.265.00, the short term-trend remains bullish. Medium Keltner average (20EMA) is acting like support together with rising ADX reading, which adds more potential for upside.

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BITCOIN Analysis for May 1, 2019

Bitcoin has been extending a climb with proper sustainability along the way towards $5,500, though the price is making downward corrections along the way.

There are no weighty reasons for Bitcoin to disrupt the bullish bias. Thus, BTC is expected to develop a steady rally with a target towards $6,000. The price clearing above the $5,200-50 area indicates the upward pressure in the coming days, but certain volatility may strike the price momentum which would not only subdue the upcoming bullish gains but also clear up certain speculations on impulsive pressure in the market.

After the impulsive climb higher, the price is currently making a correctional decline for a few hours. Being above the dynamic levels which are holding as support, the price is currently expected to move higher after a correctional decline towards $5,400. The price is being supported by 20 EMA, Tenkan, and Kijun line. Besides, the Kumo Cloud also widened significantly indicating strong bullish pressure underway. Moreover, the Chikou Span above the price line also signals further upward momentum as the price is now consolidating.

According to the current price action formation, the bias is clearly bullish with a series of downward corrections along the way. Then, the price will be able to regain momentum to break above $5,500 and climb towards $6,000 in the future.

SUPPORT: 5,000, 5,200-50, 5,400

RESISTANCE: 5,500, 5,850, 6,000

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for May 01, 2019

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Overview:

The NZD/USD pair is showing signs of weakness following a breakout of the lowest level of 0.6648. On the H1 chart. the level of 0.6648 coincides with 23.6% of Fibonacci, which is expected to act as minor support today. Since the trend is below the 23.6% Fibonacci level, the market is still in a downtrend. But, major resistance is seen at the level of 0.6690. Furthermore, the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100). Thus, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below the above-mentioned support levels, for that the bearish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the downside. Therefore, strong resistance will be found at the level of 0.6690 providing a clear signal to buy with a target seen at 0.6575. If the trend breaks the minor resistance at 0.6575, the pair will move downwards continuing the bearish trend development to the level 0.6544.

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GOLD Analysis for May 1, 2019

Gold has been trading at the edge of the $1,280 support area for a few days in a row. The price is expected to climb higher as long as it remains above $1,265 with a daily close.

Ahead of the FOMC policy decision, the Federal Funds Rate report and NFP this week, GOLD is expected to regain momentum if the upcoming events inspire optimism to investors. As Fed's interest rates have a proportional relationship with the US dollar, they determine the opportunity cost of holding gold. Gold is generally used by investors as a safe-haven investment amid economic and political concerns. However, the precious metal has come under pressure lately as equity markets have hit record highs and most economic data have eased fears about a slowdown in the global economic growth. Gold is yet to overcome the bearish factors, and any rallies in the metal might be short-lived

The overall trend is bullish. Trading above the trend line support and support area of $1,265 indicates that the upward momentum is yet to be built again, though any contradictory situation can lead to strong bearish pressure.

A sustained move over $1,280 is expected to lead to further upward pressure, but a correctional decline and current impulsive bearish pressure indicate higher volatility and indecisive market sentiment. Though the market is still quite volatile, the dynamic level of 20 EMA holding the price as resistance is a big threat to the buyers. For a conservative and safe approach, it would be better to wait for a daily close above $1,290 to buy and expect the price to reach the $1,350 resistance area in the future.

On the other hand, a break below $1,265 will not only lead to impulsive bearish pressure but it can change the overall definite trend momentum as well which would impact price gains.

SUPPORT: $1,212, $1,265, $1,280

RESISTANCE: $1,290, $1,300, $1,350

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for May 01, 2019

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Overview: The USD/CAD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.3368. In April, the pair rose from the level of 1.3368 (the level of 1.3228 coincides with a ratio of 38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to a top around 1.3519. But it rebounded from the top pf 1.3519 to 1.3370. Today, the first support level is seen at 1.3370 followed by 1.3332, while daily resistance 1 is seen at 1.3426. According to the previous events, the USD/CAD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.3370 and 1.3426; for that we expect a range of 56 pips (1.3426 - 1.3370). On the one-hour chart, immediate resistance is seen at 1.3370. Currently, the price is moving in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. The price is still above the moving average (100), Therefore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level of 1.3370, we should see the pair climbing towards the daily resistance at the levels of 1.3466 and 1.3519. It would also be wise to consider where to place stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 1.3332. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified wave analysis and forecast of EUR/USD and GBP/USD for May 1

EUR/USD

Over the past six months, a complex upward corrective pattern has been developing on the European currency chart. The unfinished wave of short-term scale is bearish, starting from March 20. By the current day, it forms the final part (C), within which, in turn, an upward corrective pullback is completed. The price of the pair pushed the minimum level of elongation, coming close to the lower border of the strong resistance zone.

Forecast:

At the next sessions, the price rise, which has taken place in the last days, is expected to complete, with the overall flat nature of the fluctuations. A short-term puncture of the upper border of the reversal zone is not excluded. The change of course of the pair can last all day.

Recommendations:

Before the appearance of reversal signals, euro pair purchases make sense in the form of short-term transactions "scalping". For longer trading, it is recommended to refrain from trading until a clear signal appears that the euro will change.

Resistance zones:

- 1.1230 / 1.1260

Support zones:

- 1.1090 / 1.1060

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GBP/USD

On the British pound chart, a bearish wave is formed from mid-March, in which the first 2 parts (A + B) are fully completed. As part of the weaving finishing area, a counter-lift has developed since the end of last week. The level of minimum lengthening of the correction was broken yesterday, the price reached the lower boundary of the strong zone of potential reversal. Signals of an emergency change of course is not observed on the chart.

Forecast:

The reversal zone is strengthened by the resistance level of the highest TF, so the probability of completion of the entire rise in this zone is very high. In the upcoming sessions, the end of the upward section of the movement, the formation of a reversal and the beginning of the price move down are expected.

Recommendations:

Buying the pound today is hopeless. In the settlement zone, it is recommended to track reversal signals on your trading systems to find the entry point to short positions.

Resistance zones:

- 1.3050 / 1.3080

Support zones:

- 1.2950 / 1.2920

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Explanations for the figures: Waves in the simplified wave analysis consist of 3 parts (A – B – C). The last unfinished wave is analyzed. Zones show areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking according to the method used by the author, the solid background is the formed structure, the dotted ones are the expected movements.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time.

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EURUSD: Good data on the US economy limited the upward potential of the euro

Good data on the US economy limited the upside potential of the euro, which was observed after more than excellent reports in Germany and the eurozone.

According to S&P and Case-Shiller, house price growth in the US slowed down in February 2019.

The national housing price index in February rose by 4% compared with the same period last year, after rising 4.2% in January. Such news is favorable for consumers who buy housing for the first time. Lower prices and lower mortgage rates can stimulate sales in the primary housing market.

It is not surprising that the number of signed contracts for the sale of housing in March increased. According to the National Association of Realtors, the index of signed contracts for the sale of housing in March rose by 3.8% compared with the previous month, reaching 105.8 points. Economists had expected the March index to show an increase of 1.5%. Despite this, compared with March 2018, the index decreased by 1.2%, which is directly related to the growth in mortgage rates over the past year.

Meanwhile, the confidence of American consumers in April of this year has grown, which may also stimulate the economy in the future. According to the Conference Board, the consumer confidence index in April was 129.2 points against 124.2 points in March. Economists had expected the index to be 126 points in April.

Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell slightly in April. According to MNI Indicators, the index fell to 52.6 points from 58.7 points in March, but remained above the value of 50 points, indicating an increase in activity.

Today, the Federal Reserve is scheduled to publish a decision on interest rates in the United States, as well as a press conference. Many expect the committee to change its tone and signal a likely lowering of rates in the future, if necessary. This is precisely what President Donald Trump has long sought, who yesterday once again appealed to the Federal Reserve to lower the key interest rate by 1 percentage point and resume the crisis program to buy bonds. In his opinion, this will allow us to start once again stimulating the growth of the American economy.

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According to the forecasts of economists, the Fed will leave rates unchanged. Let me remind you that back in March of this year, the committee refused to raise interest rates this year and announced plans to stop the reduction of its asset portfolio of $ 3.9 trillion.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, further growth is limited by the resistance of 1.1235, the breakthrough of which can maintain an upward momentum, which will lead to the updating of large levels of 1.1280 and 1.1330. If the Fed continues to adhere to its interest rate plan, the demand for risky assets will be limited, which will help return the lost positions to the US dollar and will lead the trading instrument to the lows of 1.1170 and 1.1120.

Despite the weak report that the Canadian economy contracted slightly in February, not meeting the expectations of economists, the USDCAD pair also declined. The slowdown in economic growth is directly related to the downturn in the mining sector.

According to the data, gross domestic product in February decreased by 0.1% compared with the previous month and amounted to 1.946 trillion Canadian dollars. Economists had expected GDP to remain unchanged. Compared with the same period last year, Canadian GDP in February increased by 1.1%.

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Wave analysis of GBP/USD for May 1. The Fed can return the instrument to the downward channel

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Wave counting analysis:

On April 30, the GBP/USD pair gained about 100 base points and now there are doubts about the readiness of the pair to continue building the downward trend. Wave marking is not quite the standard form. The latest news regarding Brexit can be interpreted in different ways. They relate to the negotiations of Theresa May with the Labor Party on the agreement on Brexit. There are no unambiguously positive reports, but the market may see some positive moments in these negotiations. In theory, they increase the likelihood of accepting an agreement on the next ballot in parliament. Nevertheless, I still allow the resumption of the construction of the downward trend. An unsuccessful attempt to break the 76.4% Fibonacci mark or turn the MACD down will be signal that will make you think about the readiness of the instrument for a new decline.

Purchase goals:

1.3118 - 61.8% of Fibonacci

1.3168 - 50.0% of Fibonacci

Sales targets:

1.2954 - 100.0% of Fibonacci

1.2838 - 127.2% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The wave pattern still involves building a downward trend, especially after the break of the lower line of the triangle. Now I recommend waiting for the completion of the correction wave and selling the pair with targets located near the calculated levels of 1.2839 and 1.2693, which corresponds to 127.2% and 161.8% Fibonacci. The signals can be the readings of the MACD indicator or an unsuccessful attempt to break one of the Fibonacci levels, the nearest one is 76.4%.

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Wave analysis for EUR/USD on May 1. Eurozone GDP grew by 1.2% in the first quarter

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Wave counting analysis

On April 30, trading ended for the EUR/USD pair with an increase of 55 bp. Thus, the euro has been growing for the third day in a row, and the internal corrective wave 3 turns out to be very long. The MACD indicator shows growth and passed the zero mark. I am waiting for a signal from this indicator in the form of a reversal downward, which will lead to the conclusion about the completion of the construction of the upward wave. This moment may be the beginning of the resumption of the construction of wave 3. But at the time of the reversal, it is of great importance how high the euro will soar. While this signal is not available, I do not recommend selling a pair. The news background supported the euro yesterday. Today, it can create pressure on this currency, as news on business activity indices will come out, and the results of the Fed meeting will also be known.

Sales targets:

1.1097 - 161.8% of Fibonacci

1.1045 - 200.0% of Fibonacci

Purchase goals:

1.1324 - 0.0% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair continues to build a downward trend but a corrective wave is currently developing. The current wave counting assumes the resumption of the pair reduction with the closest targets at 1.1097 and 1.1045, which is equal to 161.8% and 200.0% Fibonacci. Upon completion of the rollback to the top, I recommend selling a pair with these goals. A signal to sell will make a turn down MACD.

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GBP/USD. 1st of May. The trading system "Regression Channels". Theresa May can lose the support of the Conservatives

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The upper linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

The lower linear regression channel: direction - down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: 169.3072

The pair GBP/USD continues its upward movement. But much more interesting events are now taking place in the UK. It is not a secret for anyone that Theresa May made a bid for negotiations with the Labor Party in order to use her to still accept her version of the Brexit agreement with the EU. However, these negotiations, even if they succeed, may have the opposite effect. The fact is that the Laborists support the idea of a Customs Union with the EU, while the conservatives reject it. Consequently, if May succeeds in reaching an agreement with the Labor Party, yielding precisely to the question of the Customs Union, the number of votes from the conservatives may sharply decrease. Considering far to the best moods within this party, Theresa May may not get the necessary result on the next ballot anyway. However, so far this is just unverified information. We continue to monitor developments. The British pound has grown seriously in recent days, but we can not say that due to good fundamental reasons. Most likely, there is another technical correction. For the GBP/USD pair, today will also be extremely important, as today traders will receive a lot of interesting information from the States.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.3031

S2 - 1.3000

S3 - 1.2970

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.3062

R2 - 1.3092

R3 - 1.3123

Trading recommendations:

The pair GBP/USD continues to move up. Thus, it is now recommended to consider long positions with targets at 1.3062 and 1.3092. Closer to the beginning of the publication of US reports and the results of the Fed meeting, increased caution is recommended.

Sell positions are recommended to be considered after the consolidation of the pair below the moving average with the first targets at 1.2939 and 1.2909. Given the degree of importance of fundamental data, the option of changing the trend today should not be excluded.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. 1st of May. The trading system

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The upper linear regression channel: direction - down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction - down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: 115.9561

On Wednesday, May 1, the currency pair EUR/USD fixed above the moving average line, thus, the trend in the instrument has changed to an upward one. However, today is an extremely important day due to a large number of important fundamental events. First, the United States will publish indices of business activity in the production of ISM and Markit in April. Secondly, there will be a report on the change in the number of people employed in the private sector. Third, the results of the Fed meeting will be announced late in the evening, and a press conference will be held. Absolutely all this data will be of great importance for the pair. Strong business indexes support the US dollar, as does the employment report. In the case of the Fed, there are few hopes for "hawkish" statements. And precisely the rhetoric of the Fed may not provide support for the US currency. Monetary policy is unlikely to tolerate any changes, the rates will remain the same. However, we believe that surprises are possible, so you need to be ready for the resumption of a downward trend. All the more so, despite the overcoming of the MA, the position of the euro still remains very weak. Thus, the current binding may be short. Therefore, all attention today on the designated reports.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1169

S2 - 1.1108

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1230

R2 - 1,1292

R3 - 1.1353

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD currency pair has started an upward movement but has not yet managed to overcome the Murray level of "0/8" - 1.1230. If the news from the States today does not disappoint, then the downward trend may resume.

Sell orders advised to open no earlier than the consolidation of the pair below the moving with the targets at 1.1169 and 1.1108. Again, this option is very likely, given the importance of today's macroeconomic events.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel is the violet lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of GBP/JPY for May 1, 2019

GBP/JPY has been trapped in a trading range of 144.00 to 147.00. Nevertherless, the pair managed to gain bullish momentum off the support area indicating further upward pressure in the process.

GBP is expected to be indecisive as the Brexit deal has bot been reached yet. At the same time, Prime Minister Theresa May is making efforts to reach an agreement with the Labor Party. The current market structure of GBP/JPY is showing bearish pressure but the actual scenario depends on the outcome of the Brexit negotiations. The slow-burn Brexit impact on the British economy is the biggest barrier to economic growth for the rest of 2019. The delay in resolving the UK's status in the EU is the main reason why the Bank of England refrains from raising interest rates.

The BOE downgraded growth forecasts for the UK to 1.3% for 2019 and 1.5% for 2020. The GDP growth is expected to be 0.2% in the 1st Quarter of 2019 while the inflation rate is likely to be steady below the 2% target. Average Hourly Index was unchanged at 3.5% along with the unemployment rate at 3.9%. The Consumer Price Index turned out to be weaker than expected at 1.9%. The Producer Price Index dropped to -0.2% from previous data of 1.0%. The only surprising data was the retail sales which surged to 1.1% from the previous value of 0.6%.

The Bank of England is due to announce the policy decision tomorrow. The official interest rate is widely expected to be left unchanged at 0.75%. The monetary policy statement along with the speech of Governor Carney will be a significant market mover for the UK but the main focus for the investors will be the decision on Brexit.

On the JPY side, this week was quite silent for Japan's financial markets as they are closed for the most part of the week on public holidays. AT the latest policy meeting, the Bank of Japan maintained the key policy rate at a record low. BOJ Governor Kuroda made optimistic remarks on the domestic economy. Thus, JPY is expected to regain momentum after certain corrections along the way. The BOJ decided to examine the uncertainties about the economic activity along with the effect of the scheduled consumption tax hike. Besides, Japan's central bank plans to continue the QQE on an extreme level. The extreme monetary easing might make the JPY weaker against all other major currencies.

The US-Japan trade talks are going to shape the upcoming economic development on both sides. Japan's economy has already suffered from the trade war and a slowdown in the global economy. Japan's monetary authorities are going to raise its sales tax hike to 10 percent in October from the current 8 percent after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has twice postponed it. The last sales tax was lifted from 5 percent in 2014 that dealt a blow to private consumption, which accounts for about 60 percent of Japan's GDP.

Tomorrow Japan's Flash Manufacturing PMI report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 49.5.

To sum it up, JPY is winning favor with investors. However, it failed to dominate GBP along the way that indicates strength of GBP. This week, the pair is going to trade with higher volatility. The policy meeting of the Bank of England will clear up market sentiment on GBP in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently heading towards 146.50-147.00 resistance area after a strong bounce off the 144.00 support area recently. MACD is showing a bullish crossover in progress while also forming a Bullish Divergence. This confirms further upward pressure in the coming days. As the price remains above 144.00 area with a daily close, the pair is going to trade under bullish pressure in the coming days.

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Bitcoin. Bitcoin exchange rate is gaining strength

Apparently, the Bitcoin exchange rate is gaining strength again after a small consolidation, which was observed at the beginning of this week. The cryptocurrency is close to a large annual maximum in the region of 5660, which will generate a new impulse wave of growth.

Signal to buy Bitcoin (BTC):

To resume the upward trend, the main goal of buyers is to break the maximum of 5660, where the market can continue its rapid growth in the area of 5880 and 6025 levels, where I recommend fixing the profit. In the scenario of another unsuccessful growth attempt, you can look at the long positions on the support test 5500 and on the rebound from the area of 5360.

Signal to sell Bitcoin (BTC):

Another unsuccessful consolidation above the resistance of 5660 can again push potential buyers of Bitcoins, which will be a sell signal with the main purpose of returning to the support area of 5500 and 5360, where I recommend fixing the profits. In a scenario of breakthrough 6605, you can count on sale after you have upgraded your highs at 5880 and 6025.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on May 1. The demand for the pound may remain, but a small correction to the bulls

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

After yesterday's strong growth of the pound, it is best to return to long positions today after the formation of a false breakdown in the support area of 1.3018, but larger players can go only after a deeper downward correction to the area of 1.2983, where you can immediately buy a rebound. The main task will be a breakthrough and consolidation above the resistance of 1.305 but in the first half of the day, there may be a divergence on the MACD indicator, which will limit the upward potential. The goal is a maximum of 1.3093, where I recommend fixing the profit.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

The bears will expect unsuccessful consolidation in the first half of the day above the resistance of 1.3057 with confirmation of divergence on the MACD indicator, which will be the first signal to open short positions in order to return to the support area of 1.3018, the breakdown of which will lead to a larger downward correction to the minimum of 1.2983, where I recommend fixing the profits. When the GBP/USD growth scenario is above the resistance of 1.3057, it is best to consider short positions for a rebound from the maximum of 1.3093.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the bullish nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

In the case of a decrease in the pound, support may be provided by the lower limit of the indicator in the area of 1.3018, the impulse of which will increase the pressure on the pair.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on May 1. Divergence on the MACD may limit the growth of the Euro in the first half

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

The divergence that was formed on the MACD indicator may limit the further growth of the euro today in the first half of the day. Given the fact that Europe is celebrating Labor Day today, volatility will be low. It is best to consider long positions after a downward correction to the support area of 1.1200 or a rebound from a larger area of 1.1178. The entire focus will shift on the second half of the day when the Federal Reserve will issue an accompanying statement on interest rates. The main task of the bulls remains to update the highs in the area of 1.1260 and 1.1282, where I recommend fixing the profits.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:

An unsuccessful attempt to consolidate at the level of 1.1235 when forming a divergence on the MACD indicator will be the first signal to open short positions in the euro in order to reduce and consolidate under the middle of the channel 1.1206, the breakdown of which will push EUR/USD to the support area of 1.178, and then to a minimum of 1.1150, where I recommend fixing the profits. With the growth of the euro above the resistance of 1.1235 in the first half of the day, it is best to open short positions on the rebound from the maximum of 1.1260.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates that the upward correction is maintained.

Bollinger Bands

The upper limit of the indicator around 1.1230 will limit the upward potential of the euro. In case of a decrease, the lower limit of the indicator in the area of 1.1206 may provide temporary support, the breakthrough of which will lead to a larger sale.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Analysis of EUR/USD divergences for May 1st. The bearish divergence could send the euro down again.

4h

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As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair continues the process of growth in the direction of the retracement level of 76.4% (1.1241). On May 1, a bearish divergence is brewing at the MACD indicator. The last peak of quotations is below the previous and similar peak indicator is higher. The formation of a bearish divergence will allow traders to rely on a reversal of the pair in favor of the US dollar and a slight drop in the direction of the retracement level of 100.0% (1.1177). The release quotes from the level of 76.4% will similarly work in favor of the beginning of fall.

The Fibo grid is built according to the extremes of March 7, 2019, and March 20, 2019.

Daily

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As seen on the 24-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the European currency and began the process of returning to the retracement level of 127.2% (1.1285). The rebound of quotations from the Fibo level of 127.2% will allow expecting a reversal in favor of the American currency and a resumption of decline in the direction of the retracement level of 161.8% (1.0941). Closing the pair above the Fibo level of 127.2% will increase the likelihood of further growth in the direction of the next retracement level of 100.0% (1.1553).

The Fibo grid is built according to the extremes of November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Forecast for EUR/USD and trading recommendations:

Buy deals on EUR/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.1281 if the pair closes above the level of 76.4%. The stop loss order should be placed below the level of 1.1241.

Sell deals on EUR/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.1177 if the pair rebounds from the retracement level of 76.4%. The stop loss order should be placed above the level of 1.1241, especially in conjunction with the bearish divergence.

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Analysis of GBP/USD divergences for May 1st. The pound surprised by the growth.

4h

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As seen on the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair continues the growth process and closed above the Fibo level of 61.8% (1.2969). As a result, on May 1, the growth of quotations continued in the direction of the retracement level of 76.4% (1.3094). The rebound of the pair from the Fibo level of 76.4% will make it possible to expect a reversal in favor of the American dollar and a slight fall towards the retracement level of 61.8%. Fixing the pair above the Fibo level of 76.4% will work in favor of continuing growth in the direction of the next retracement level of 100.0% (1.3296).

The Fibo grid is built according to the extremes of September 20, 2018, and January 3, 2019.

1h

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As seen on the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair closed above the retracement level of 50.0% (1.3031). Thus, the growth process can be continued today in the direction of the next Fibo level of 61.8% (1.3069). There are no emerging divergences on the current chart, although both indicators began to fall, despite the growth of the pair. The closing of quotations under the retracement level of 50.0% can be identified as a reversal in favor of the US currency and the beginning of a fall in the direction of the Fibo level of 38.2% (1.2992).

The Fibo grid is built according to the extremes of April 3, 2019, and April 25, 2019.

Forecast for GBP/USD and trading recommendations:

Buy deals on GBP/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.3069 and a stop loss order under the retracement level of 50.0% as the pair completed closing above 1.3031 (hourly chart).

Sell deals on GBP/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.2992 and a stop loss order above the level of 50.0% if the pair closes below the level of 1.3031 (hourly chart).

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Technical analysis of Ethereum for 01.05.2019:

Crypto Industry News:

Citizens of South Korea buy cryptocurrencies in the largest amounts ever recorded and spend more money fiat to do so, according to the local newspaper.

Referring to the results of a non-profit survey carried out in December 2018 by the Korean Foundation for the Protection of Financial Investors, Arirang revealed that 7.4% of the 2,500 adults surveyed claimed to have purchased cryptocurrencies.

This number increased by 1% compared to the previous year, despite the fact that the industry was struggling with local obstacles in the form of changing regulations and burglaries on the stock exchanges. Not only the number of buyers has changed: many of those who currently have crypto, many bought more than before.

Compared to 2017, the average investment per capita has increased by 64% to over $ 6,000. According to the survey, the most often buyers of cryptographers were older investors - 50-year-olds, and then 30-40-year-olds. The rise of Bitcoin prices to $ 5,300 at the beginning of April caused a re-emergence of the upward trend characteristic of the South Korean market.

Technical Market Overview:

The ETH/USD pair has hit the 61% Fibonacci retracement and broke through it after a short consolidation. The up move has hit the technical resistance at the level of 171.01 with a local top made at the level of 172.00. Since then the market has been consolidating and a local pull-back was made to the level of 167.89, but no new low has been made yet. The key technical support for bulls is seen at the level of 165.46, just below the 61% Fibonacci retracement. Any violation of this level would mean the three waves up move has been made.

Weekly Pivots:

WR3 - 204.74

WR2 - 190.50

WR1 - 176.25

Weekly Pivot: 160.51

WS1 - 146.54

WS2 - 132.16

WS3 - 116.96

Trading recommendations:

The previous sell setup has been invalidated as the price has broken through the 61% Fibonacci retracement and did not look back since then yet. Anyway, there is no good setup to trade this pair right now, so all traders should stay aside and wait for better trading conditions.

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Technical analysis of Bitcoin for 01.05.2019:

Crypto Industry News:

According to a published statement, the Australian Tax Office (ATO) will try to contact salespeople dealing with cryptocurrencies in tax matters in a new data collection system.

ATO, which cooperates with the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC) and the Australian Center for Transaction Reports and Analysis (AUSTRAC), claims that it will request information on operations from local cryptocurrency exchanges. This data will then be used to contact traders who will receive a minimum of 28 days to explain their operations.

This movement underlines the ongoing struggle of Australian authorities seeking to keep the domestic cryptocurrency industry under control.

Over the years, controversial tax policies have taken various forms, while ASIC suggested that in September 2018, it would again increase stock exchange controls. However, according to Day, recent efforts support entrepreneurs and aim to help them navigate their tax obligations.

Technical Market Overview:

The BTC/USD pair is about to test the recent high at the level of $5,666 as the up move in wave (b) extends beyond the level of 61% Fibonacci retracement. The move up was made in three waves only, so it is still being counted as a corrective, just as in the Elliott Wave scenario. The key technical support is now located at the level of $5,528 - $5,500. So far there are no signs of any local trend reversal yet.

Weekly Pivots:

WR3 - $6,630

WR2 - $5,993

WR1 - $5,751

Weekly Pivot: $5,379

WS1 - $5,117

WS2 - $4,744

WS3 - $4,481

Trading recommendations:

The level of the recent high at $5,666 is a good level to enter a short term sell position with a target at the level of $5,348 or even below ( it all depends on the form of the corrective cycle in wave (c)). The longer-term outlook is still bullish, but currently, the market entered a corrective cycle.

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Trading plan for EUR/USD for May 01, 2019

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Technical outlook:

The EURUSD pair has managed to push through fibonacci 50% retracement/resistance of the recent drop between 1.1324 and 1.1111 levels respectively as presented on the chart here. Also note that the 61.8% extension of recent counter trend rally has also been hit. The likelihood remains for a bearish reversal from current levels or from 1.1240 levels which is fibonacci 0.618 resistance of the former drop. We shall continue to maintain our bearish bias for now, and until prices remain below 1.1324 levels going forward. Immediate support remains at 1.1111 levels while resistance is intact at 1.1324 levels respectively. We believe that in the next 1-2 days, the direction and trend for May 2019 could be decided with more bias towards lower levels. Please also note that the next resistance in line is the 1.1250 zone and if bulls manage to push higher, it might be a threat to 1.1324 levels ahead. At least for now, it could be considered to be a safe trading strategy to remain short and look to further sell higher.

Trading plan:

Short from 1.1175 and 1.1190 levels, stop at 1.1324 and target 1.1020.

Good luck!

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for May 1, 2019

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GBP/JPY is pushing nicely higher and should be testing resistance near 146.00 soon. A clear break above here, will confirm that the corrective decline in wave 2 is complete and call for a strong impulsive rally in wave 3 through resistance at 148.50 for a continuation higher to 151.50.

That said, we have an alternative possibility. Under this alternative count, resistance near 146.00 will cap the upside and turn prices lower again. This time support at 143.75 will be broken for a C-wave decline to 141.05 to complete wave 2. We have no reason to lift the alternative count to our preferred count at this point in time, but just alert you to the risk.

R3: 146.65

R2: 145.95

R1: 145.57

Pivot: 145.12

S1: 144.84

S2: 144.39

S3: 144.02

Trading recommendation:

We are long GBP from 144.00 and we will keep our stop at break-even for now.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for May 1, 2019

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Ideally we will see a final dip into the target zone between 123.85 - 124.05 to complete the corrective decline in wave ii and set the stage for a new impulsive rally through resistance at 126.85 for a rally higher to 129.35.

That said, a break above minor resistance at 125.17 will indicate that the corrective decline in wave ii already has completed and wave iii is taking over for a new impulsive rally

R3: 126.10

R2: 125.85

R1: 125.18

Pivot: 125.00

S1: 124.80

S2: 124.50

S3: 124.09

Trading recommendation:

We will buy EUR at 124.05 or upon a break above 125.20

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 30.01.2019:

Technical Market Overview:

The GBP/USD pair has broken above the orange trendline and went north to break through the 61% Fibonacci retracement at the level of 1.3029. The local high was made at the level of 1.3047 and so far there are no signs of any trend reversal. Nevertheless, the market conditions are now overbought so the price might go lower to test the support at the levels of 1.3017, 1.3000 and 1.2962.

Weekly Pivots:

WR3 - 1.3137

WR2 - 1.3074

WR1 - 1.2986

Weekly Pivot: 1.2980

WS1 - 1.2827

WS2 - 1.2766

WS3 - 1.2683

Trading recommendations:

All of the key technical resistance zones have been broken as the price made its move towards the 61% retracement. Nevertheless, this move up should be considered as a corrective pull-back in a downtrend, so the price is now at a good level to open the sell position in anticipation of the downtrend to resume.

analytics5cc93eba07610.jpg

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 01.05.2019

Technical Market Overview:

The EUR/USD pair has been trading inside of the narrow zone located between the levels of 1.1210 - 1.1226, just where the 50% Fibonacci retracement is located. The bulls do not look like they have enough momentum to support further move upward as the RSI indicator is in othe overbought zone and is pointing down. The market conditions are overbought as well, so the corrective bounce might have been completed and the market can reverse any time now.

Weekly Pivots:

WR3 - 1.1369

WR2 - 1.1315

WR1 - 1.1220

Weekly Pivot: 1.1165

WS1 - 1.1067

WS2 - 1.1006

WS3 - 1.0913

Trading recommendations:

The level of 1.1226 is 50% Fibonacci retracement, so it is a good level to open the sell orders. If, however, the level is violated, then the price might test the level of 61% located at 1.1242. Anyway, this is a good zone to open a sell position in anticipation of the downtrend to resume shortly.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on May 1, 2019

EUR/USD

On Tuesday, European economic indicators surprised and came out better than expected; the GDP of the euro area for the 1st quarter showed an increase of 0.4% against the expected 0.3%, the unemployment rate in March fell from 7.8% to 7.7% while the indicator was unchanged. The best part of the GDP structure is the growth of the Italian index by 0.2% against the expectation of -0.1% and the revision of GDP for the previous period from -0.2% to -0.1%. Italy is "saved" from recession. We believe that the data may be overstated, perhaps there will still be a downward revision, but now the political situation prevents the publication of reliable information.

Today, the FOMC Fed decides on monetary policy, advocates the head of the Central Bank Jerome Powell. The main topic of the speech is expected to be the independence of the regulator from the external pressure of the presidential administration. Of course, in allegorical language, for example, in the absence of reasons for the rate cut in the current year. Even if the Fed is not against lowering the rate in order to reduce the cost of servicing the public debt, it can be said later. The game on both sides is quite within the bounds of decency.

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Yesterday, the euro growth was stopped on the MACD line and the daily scale balance line. The line of the Marlin oscillator has reached the border with the territory of growth and can turn down from it. We are waiting for the return of the euro to 1.1155 and a further decline to 1.1075.

The continuation of growth is possible. The price needs to gain a foothold above yesterday's high, then aggressive players can take an increase to the resistance of the embedded price channel line in the area of 1.1287.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on May 1, 2019

GBP/USD

Yesterday, the British pound tried to use the temporary weakness of the dollar as much as possible – the pound rose by 100 points, the price on the daily scale at the peak of the day slightly fell short of the resistance of the Fibonacci level of 38.2% and the MACD line, which can happen today with the expected turn down. But this main scenario has a weak point, namely the exit of the Marlin line on the daily chart to the growth zone. This is a sign of a possible longer correction, for example, to the level of Fibonacci 50.0% at the price of 1.3125. In the perspective of several days, we are waiting for a decrease in the pound in the range of 1.2772-1.2814.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on May 1, 2019

USD/JPY

Yesterday, the market was highly active – trading volumes were above average, the dollar succumbed to weakening, and the yen itself experienced even greater difficulties. Nevertheless, the support of the indicator line of the daily chart balance was strong enough to keep the currency pair from further falling. On the four-hour chart, technical convergence was formed, the price reversal followed by a touch of the MACD line on H4, coinciding with the maximum on March 15 and April 29, is very possible (111.91). If successful, the price goes above this level and we expect the price to continue to rise to the upper limit of the price channel 112.60.

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Short-term technical analysis of EURUSD for April 30, 2019

EURUSD has reached our first short-term target at 1.12 and is trading above it but below short-term trend line resistance. Medium-term trend remains bearish as long as price is below 1.13-1.1350.

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Red line - support

Blue line - short-term resistance trend line

Black line - major resistance trend line

EURUSD has bounced as expected towards 1.12. Price has reached the 50% Fibonacci retracement and just below the blue short-term trend line resistance. A rejection at current levels will open the way for a move back to 1.11. RSI has not reached overbought levels yet and this implies that we may see this short-term bounce continue higher. Breaking above 1.1250 will open the way for a move towards 1.13-1.1330 where we find major trend resistance.

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Short-term technical analysis of Gold for April 30, 2019

Gold price has held short-term support at $1,280 where we find the lower channel boundary. Bulls need to break above $1,289 in order to push higher towards the major resistance of $1,300.

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Red line - major resistance trend line

Blue lines - short-term bullish channel

Red rectangle - short-term resistance area

Gold price has short-term resistance area at $1,289. Breaking above this level will open the way for a move towards the red trend line major resistance. This will be a short-term bullish signal. However medium-term trend remains bearish as long as we trade below $1,300 and any bounce is considered as selling opportunity. Support is at $1,280 and bulls do not want to see that level broken. A break below this support will open the way for a move towards $1,250-60 or lower.

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Fundamental Analysis of GBPUSD for April 30, 2019

The GBP/USD pair moved upwards after the recent decline which pushed the daily close below the 1.3000-50 area. This week's FOMC and NFP reports are expected to provide support to the US dollar. Therefore, the British pound is likely to give in to its American rival.

The 6-month delay of Brexit gives Britain's central bankers space to take a broader view of the economy. However, they are not likely to raise interest rates in the coming months due to ongoing uncertainty around the UK's exit from the European Union. An average forecast is for a rate to rise in the first quarter of the next year when Governor Mark Carney will hand power over to a successor. Some analysts do not expect rates to be raised at all this or next year, financial market pricing said.

Unlike the European Central Bank, the Bank of England is dealing with inflation that is likely to rise above target soon. Also, in contrast to the US Federal Reserve, it has only raised its rates twice in the current economic cycle, in August 2018. Moreover, Retailers are weighed down by Britain's uncertainty, while households pulled back from the big purchases and the Gfk Consumer Sentiment report showed a negative result. Tomorrow 's UK Manufacturing PMI report is anticipated to reflect a decrease to 53.2 from the previous figure of 55.1, and the Net Lending to Individuals is expected to decrease to 4.5B from the previous figure of 4.6B.

Additionally, on Thursday, the Bank of England Inflation report, Monetary Policy Summary, and Official Bank Rate of UK are going to be published. The central bank's rate is forecast to remain at 0.75%.

On the other hand, the strong US GDP excelled the estimates and provided support for USD. The annual pace of the GDP growth turned out to be 3.2 percent in the first three months of the year, comparable to last year's pace. The 3 percent growth achieved in 2018 surprised many at the central bank, and, in their March statement, officials said they thought the economy had slowed in the first weeks of the year.

On Friday, the Nonfarm Payrolls report for April tops the list of this week's data releases. Economists expect to see a gain of 181,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 3.8%. The US economy added 196,000 jobs in March, rebounding after a gain of just 33,000 jobs in the previous month. Moreover, by evaluating the recent data, today's consumer confidence is expected to be boosted to 126.2 from the previous figure of 124.1. This will be underlined by another decent rise in payrolls and a renewed uptick in wage growth after the last month's surprising dip. Additionally, Pending Home Sales are expected to increase to 1.1% from the previous value of -1.0%, while Chicago PMI is forecast to grow to 59.1 from the previous figure of 58.7.

On Wednesday, the FOMC Meeting and the Federal Funds Rate report are going to be published. The rate is to remain unchanged at 2.50%. Additionally, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference following the meeting, investors await his insights on the policy outlook.

As of the current scenario, the US dollar is quite firm amid the upcoming economic reports, even though the expectations are not that great. As the UK struggles with issues like BREXIT and mixed economic results, the pound is likely to be sluggish against the greenback in the coming days.

Now, let us look at the technical view. The price managed to move higher towards the 1.30 area after a Bullish Divergence lead the price to the edge of the dynamic level of 20 EMA. As for the current trend, the price is expected to drop towards the 1.2700-1.2800 support area as it remains below the 1.3050-1.3100 area with a daily close.

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Analysis of Bitcoin for April 30, 2019

Bitcoin has been quite impulsive recently after consolidation at the edge of $5,200-50 area. The price is currently heading towards $5,500 in an impulsive manner and expected to break above it as the upward trend persists.

The price, being held by the trend line support at the edge of $5,200-50 area, managed to push the price higher. With the current market momentum, the price is expected to rebounce towards the dynamic level of 20 EMA where the trend line support lies as well.

According to the On-balance volume indicator, the increase in volume indicates the strength of bulls. At the same time, formation of the resistance in the indicator level is a sign of a possible decrease in volume which would result in a pullback along the way before the bullish pressure continues. As the price remains above $5,000 area with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue with the target towards $6,000 area.

The price area of $6,000 is the key resistance level. A break above it can push the price to new highs with the target towards $10,000 area in the coming days.

SUPPORT: 5000, 5250

RESISTANCE: 5500, 5850, 6000

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for April 30, 2019

EUR gained ground against JPY recently which is viewed as a pullback towards the resistance area of 125.00-50. EUR has been weighed down by with the economic slowdown in the eurozone which is proved by mixed economic reports. So, EUR's rally is likely to be short-lived.

EUR is trading firmly lower amid the economic slowdown and worse economic data published recently. EUR is going to extend weakness if upcoming ECB events and economic reports do not meet expectations. This week the economic calendar does not contain macroeconomic events to support EURO gains over USD. The European Union won backing from the bloc's top court on Tuesday for its system to protect foreign companies that is essential for future trade agreements, but critics say unfairly favors multinationals.

Recently the eurozone provided a raft of upbeat economic data which helped EUR to rally for a while. However, it is unpredictable how long EUR could sustain a rally. Today the eurozone's M3 Money Supply report was published with an increase to 4.5% from the previous value of 4.3% which was expected to decrease to 4.2% and Private Loans contracted to 3.2% which was expected to be unchanged at 3.3%. Today the eurozone's Prelim GDP report was published with an increase to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.2% which was expected to be at 0.3% and Unemployment Rate dipped to 7.7% which was expected to be unchanged at 7.8%.

On the JPY side, this week Japan's markets are closed for public holidays. So, the economic calendar lacks reports from Japan. Following the policy meeting of the Bank of Japan, Governor Kuroda made optimistic comments in the domestic economy. JPY is expected to regain momentum after certain corrections along the way. BOJ decided to examine the uncertainties about the economic activity along with the effect of the scheduled consumption tax hike and planned to continue the QQE on a large scale. The extreme QQE might make the JPY weaker against all other major currencies.

The bank projected a strong labor market with consumer price index at below 2% target. The industrial production showed a weaker than expected reading which dropped from 1.4% to 0.7%. Retail sales increased at 1.0% while Core Consumer improved at 0.8%. Trade Balance came in at -0.18T when the forecast was -0.30T. Tomorrow, Japan's Flash Manufacturing PMI report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 49.5.

To sum up, JPY is still the stronger currency in the pair whereas EUR is struggling with the mixed economic data. EUR is expected to extend weakness in the coming days. As the Japanese economy thrives further and the BOJ remains optimistic, it provides JPY with solid support.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently being held by the resistance area of 125.00-50 from where as per preceding strong bearish trend, the price is expected to push lower towards 123.50 to 124.00 support area in the coming days. As the price remains below 125.50 area with a daily close, the pair is going to trade under the bearish bias.

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