Fundamental Analysis of AUD/USD for September 19, 2017

AUD/USD has been making correctional moves recently with bullish gains. The pair is currently expected to see some bearish pressure in the coming days. AUD has been quite weak at the start of the week but today it gained ground against USD amid positive economic reports. Today, Australia's HPI report was published at 1.9%, down from the previous value of 2.2% which was expected to decrease to 1.2%. Though the report revealed a worse result, it came out better than expected, so the market sentiment quickly turned bullish and provided AUD with support. Additionally, RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes were also released today where the regulator was quite positive with the broad job market improvement and GDP growth by 3.0% that directly affected the USD growth today, leading to more corrective gains of AUD. On the other hand, today US Building Permits report is going to be published which is expected to show a slight decrease to 1.22M from the previous figure of 1.23M, Current Account is expected to show a less deficit to -115B from the previous figure of -117B, Housing Starts are expected to increase to 1.17M from the previous figure of 1.16M, and Import Prices are expected to increase to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.1%. To sum up, US data in the economic calendar today do not have better forecasts to look for but any better than expected actual result can help USD to gain momentum over AUD impulsive gain today and lead to further bearish pressure in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently residing in a corrective rising channel which was about to break yesterday but the price bounced off the support of the channel and pushed higher. As there are certain impactful news from the US on the way today, a daily close below the channel support will lead to bearish pressure in this pair with the target towards the support area of 0.7750-0.7830. As the price remains below the resistance level of 0.80, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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Fundamental Analysis of GBPUSD for September 19, 2017

GBP/USD has been impulsively bullish recently. The pair is expected to show some retracement towards the nearest support before climbing up higher. Recently Bank of England Governor Carney's speech was dovish in nature as he spoke about tightening for better control over the economy but did not provide any information about the timing of the nearest rate hike. The dovish speech shifted the market sentiment to bearish from bullish but it is expected to be a short-term bearish phase before the market bounces off to create new higher highs in the coming days. Today there are no first-tier economic events or reports from the UK that leads to a slow market movement and minimal bullish pressure in the market. On the other hand, today US Building Permits report is due later today which is expected to show a slight decrease to 1.22M from the previous figure of 1.23M, Current Account is expected to show a less deficit of -115B from the previous figure of -117B, Housing Starts are expected to increase to 1.17M from the previous figure of 1.16M, and Import Prices are expected to increase to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.1%. Though the forecasts on the USD side today is not quite satisfactory but better-than-expected data can lead to further gains of USD, taking the price lower towards the nearest support levels in the coming days. Ahead of the FOMC policy meeting this week, any positive economic report from the US will help the greenback to gain ground in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price has recently formed a bullish rejection candle with a strong bearish body which signals that the price is expected to move down in the coming days. As the dynamic level of 20 EMA is also quite far away from the current price, the price is likely to fall back down to the 1.3370 support level. If price somehow bypasses the nearest support of 1.3370 with a daily close, we will still be bullish, expecting the price to bounce off the trendline support or support area of 1.3050-1.3120.

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GBP/USD analysis for September 19, 2017

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 1.3468. Anyway, there is a support level at the price of 1.3465 and selling at this stage looks risky. There is also a bullish divergence on the moving average osiclator, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.3552 and 1.3610.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3526

R2: 1.3540

R3: 1.3554

Support levels:

S1: 1.3500

S2: 1.3485

S3: 1.3475

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USD/JPY analysis for September 19, 2017

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Recently, the USD/JPY pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 111.88. Anyway, according to the 30M time frame, I found a fake breakout of yesterday's high at the price of 111.66, which is a sign that buying looks risky. Price action confirmed a successful rejection from 111.66 and my advice is to watch for potential selling opportuntiies. The downward targets are set at the price of 111.02 and 110.85 (gap area).

Resistance levels:

R1: 111.60

R2: 111.70

R3: 111.85

Support levels:

S1: 111.40

S2: 111.30

S3: 111.20

Trading recommendations for today: consider potential selling opportunities.

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Bitcoin analysis for September 19, 2017

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $4,115. Anyway, the news from China are not so good for Bitcoin. The Chinese authorities may be moving toward a broad clampdown on Bitcoin, including peer-to-peer (P2P) exchanges and over-the-counter (OTC) trading platforms. Using the Great Firewall to block IP addresses, access to foreign bitcoin exchanges could be blocked and the Bitcoin transaction network could be disrupted within the country. Bitcoin miners are also worried that their operations could be restricted.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 30M time frame, I found a fake breakout of yesterday's high at the price of $4,092, which is a sign that buying looks risky. There is an intraday bullish flag, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potetnial selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $3.841 and $3.641.

Support/Resistance

$4.092 – Intraday resistance (price action)

$3.841 – Intraday support (price action)

$3.641 – Support (price action)

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for September 19, 2017

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Daily Outlook

In February 2017, the depicted short-term downtrend was initiated around the depicted supply zone (0.7310-0.7380).

However, a recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

The price zone of 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) stood as a temporary resistance zone until a bullish breakout was expressed above 0.7230.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards the next supply zone around 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

Recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhances the bearish side of the market. This brings the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) where recent weak bullish recovery was manifested earlier in September.

An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern is being expressed on the depicted chart indicating high probability of bearish reversal.

The current price levels of 0.7320-0.7350 can be watched for a valid SELL entry if enough bearish rejection is expressed.

A breakdown of the neckline 0.7150 confirms the reversal pattern. Expected bearish targets are located around 0.7050, 0.6925 and eventually 0.6800.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for September 19, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allows a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where price action should be watched for evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL Entry.

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend reversed when the Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue a further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, an evident bullish breakout is being witnessed on the chart.

The next supply level to meet the pair is located around 1.2100 (Level of previous multiple bottoms) where bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry can be anticipated.

On the other hand, if bearish pullback persists below 1.1800 and 1.1700, the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 can be watched for a valid BUY entry.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for September 19, 2017

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair is moving in the bullish trend from the support levels of 0.7181 and 0.7231. The price is in a bullish channel.
  • This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that it is still in a bullish trending market. As the price is still above the moving average (100), immediate support is seen at 0.7231, which coincides with a golden ratio (23.6% of Fibonacci).
  • Hence, the first support is set at the level of 0.7231. So, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the area of 0.7181 - 0.7231.
  • In other words, buy orders are recommended above the prices of 0.7181 - 0.7231 with the first target at the level of 0.7293.
  • Furthermore, if the trend is able to breakout through the first resistance level of 0.7293. Moreover, the pair could climb towards the second resistance 0.7343).
  • However, it would also be wise to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 0.7131 (last bottom on the H4 chart).
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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for September 19, 2017

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair hadn't made any significant movements since lat week. The USD/CHF pair broke resistance which turned to strong support at the level of 0.9580 (major support). The level of 0.9580 coincides with a golden ratio (61.8% of Fibonacci), which is expected to act as major support today. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is considered overbought because it is above 30. The RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it is still strong above the moving average (100). This suggests the pair will probably go up in coming hours. Accordingly, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the spot of 0.9624 with the first target at the level of 0.9679. From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.9679 and further to the level of 0.9710. The level of 0.9710 will act as strong resistance and the double top is already set at the point of 0.9710. However, if a breakout takes place at the support level of 0.9580, then this scenario may become invalidated. Remember to place a stop loss; it should be set below the second support of 0.9549.
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Global macro overview for 19/09/2017

Global macro overview for 19/09/2017:

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney had his five minutes yesterday as he advised caution in assessing the risks of Brexit. In his speech at the 2017 IMF Michel Camdessus Central Banking Lecturer had reiterated after his colleagues that an interest rate hike might come in the "coming months", but it will be gradual and limited. He added that monetary policy may have to "move in order to stand still" due to the possibility that global equilibrium interest rates are rising. Later on, he expressed his concerns regarding the post-Brexit situation as he said that lower immigration due to Brexit could contribute "more materially" to inflation pressure in the short term, with only modest impact in the long term. In conclusion, the anticipated interest rate hike by the Bank of England might be triggered only because the other central banks are hiking as well, which means the BoE hike will be a one-off event as the possibility of a series of an interest rate hikes is very limited.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The pair is trading around the level of 1.3464 under overbought conditions and a visible bearish divergence has formed between the price and the momentum indicator. The most important level for bulls is the technical support at the level of 1.3270 as any breakout lower will be the first sign that bears are in control over this market again. The larger time-frame trend is still upward.

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Global macro overview for 19/09/2017

Global macro overview for 19/09/2017:

The Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes has been released overnight. The members of the monetary policy committee notified that labour market conditions in Australia had continued to improve, although spare capacity remains. Employment had risen further in July, the participation rate had edged higher and the unemployment rate had remained steady at 5.6%. Full-time employment had risen strongly over the preceding year and had outpaced the growth in part-time employment over that period. Regarding the monetary policy, the members noted that the data received over the prior month confirmed that global economic conditions had strengthened since 2016. Growth in wages and inflation had generally remained subdued and core inflation had eased a little. This was expected to remain the case for some time. Nevertheless, a gradual increase in growth in wages and inflation was expected as the spare capacity in the labour market was reduced and the economy continued to strengthen, supported by the low level of interest rates. The appreciation of the Australian dollar over recent months, driven in part by a broad depreciation of the US dollar, was weighing on domestic growth and contributing to subdued inflationary pressure. A further appreciation of the Australian dollar would be expected to result in a slower pick-up in growth and inflation.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The drop from the multi-month high at the level of 0.8125 was stopped at the level of 0.7940, almost hitting the 61%Fibo retracement and bouncing from the golden trend line. Currently, the price is trying to test the nearest technical resistance 0.8043, but in order to test the recent highs, the market would have to break out above the 0.8066 level first.

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USD/CHF bouncing perfectly, remain bullish for a further rise

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USD/CHF bouncing perfectly, remain bullish for a further rise

Bitcoin analysis for 19/09/2017

Bitcoin analysis for 19/09/2017:

More and more universities in Russia are introducing additional courses to existing curricula. Financial directions were enriched with classes on cryptocurrencies, Bitcoins and blockchain technology. This is the first time such items have appeared in college offers. This was due to the growing demand among financial students. According to Russia Today, many leading universities in Russian Federation for the first time this year will start offering special courses and courses in master's studies dedicated to cryptocurrencies and the blockchain technology. Courses are to be included in existing curricula in the academic year 2017/2018. The list of the universities is: National University in Moscow (MSU), High School of Economy (HSE), Economic University in Sankt Petersburg (SPBGEU), Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology (MIPT), and The National University of Science and Technology (MISIS).

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture on the H4 time frame. So far the bull camp has been too weak to violate the dashed trend line around the level of $4,000 and the price was rejected. It bounced from the nearest support at the level of $3,868, but the market conditions are still looking overbought. Nevertheless, the recent $1,000 rally from the lows is still impressive and might lead to the further appreciation of the Bitcoin.

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The market is waiting for movement on the Fed

In the previous days, we see strong movements from the pairs: pound-dollar, dollar-yen, and euro-yen. The EUR/USD pair appeared to remain inactive and continues to consolidate. There are some areas that are expected to be influenced by the move of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) decision tomorrow, September 20, at 21:00. Followed by the press conference of the Fed Chair Yellen at 21:30. In addition, Trump's speech at the United Nations regarding the reform program of UN is expected on Tuesday. Most likely, this will not affect the markets, however, strong statements from the United States against on North Korea are not excluded. In North Korea, there is a probability of a reaction, for instance, about the new missile to be launch towards Japan and/ or Guam. In the morning, the EURUSD pair is in the range of the limits 1.1910 - 1.2000. We already have an attempt to break through 1.2000 up.

We buy from 1.2000 stop 1.1955, target 1.2100

Alternative: We sell at the breakdown to 1.1910 stop 1.1955.

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Trading plan for 19/09/2017

Trading plan for 19/09/2017:

The USD is slightly weaker today, but the fluctuations look like a noise in anticipation of tomorrow's FOMC decision. JPY crashes to the worst degree, followed by CAD, which dropped due to the Bank of Canada comments. The stock market is generally growing following Wall Street's new record. The Nikkei is up 2.0%.

On Tuesday 19th of September, the event calendar is light in important economic releases. Global investors will keep an eye on ZEW Economic Sentiment data from Germany, Manufacturing Sales data from Canada, and Building Permits data from the US.

EUR/USD analysis for 19/09/2017:

The ZEW Economic Sentiment and Current Situation data are scheduled for release at 09:00 am GMT and market participants expect an improvement in reading of both Economic Sentiment (32.4 points expected vs. 29.3 points prior) and Current Situation (86.3 points expected vs. 86.7 points prior). The Economic Sentiment in the Eurozone has been significantly improving since August 2016 with the highest reading in July 2017 at the level of 38.1. The other data from the Eurozone, and from Germany in particular, were improving as well (manufacturing PMIs, retail sales, customer confidence, Ifo), so there is no wonder why the sentiment was high and positive. Nevertheless, the highs in sentiment from January 2014 have never been met again (around 75 points ), so in the larger perspective, the current sentiment levels are still not that much impressive. If the data will beat the expectations today, the Euro might start to rally again across the board, fuelled additionally by the rumors related to the possible QE decrease in 2018.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The recent move up above the level of 1.2000 looks like a failure so far, but the good data might fuel the rally again. The next important resistance is seen at the level of 1.2092 and a breakout above will lead to the new local highs. On the other hand, the market is still being supported by the golden trend line and only a sustained breakout below the level of 1.1822 would change the immediate outlook to bearish.

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Market Snapshot: USD/JPY at 61%Fibo resistance

The price of USD/JPY has managed to retrace 61% of the previous swing down and is currently trading at the level of 111.75. Moreover, USD/JPY is breaking through the external projection of Fibonacci 127%. The closure of a 4-hour candle above this level will open the way to the next external Fibonacci projection, which is 161% at 112.75. The closest support is the Friday high at 111.30.

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Market Snapshot: EUR/GBP at trendline support

The price of EUR/GBP had bounced from the trendline support around the level of 0.8791 and currently is trying to test the technical support zone upper boundary at the level of 0.8851. The market conditions are starting to be oversold, but the momentum indicator is still pointing to the downside. Any daily candle close below the level of 0.8742 will indicate that the bears are in full control over this market.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for September 19, 2017

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Our first target which we predicted at 111.70 in yesterday's analysis has been hit. The pair is trading above its rising 50-period moving average, which plays a support role and maintains the upside bias. The relative strength index is mixed with a bullish bias. The downside potential should be limited by the key support at 110.60.

Hence, as long as this key level is not broken, look for a new upside to 112.10 and even to 112.40 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a short position is recommended below 110.60 with a target at 110.30.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 111.20, Take Profit: 112.10

Resistance levels: 112.10, 112.40, and 112.75 Support Levels: 110.95, 110.60, 110.20

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for September 19, 2017

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USD/CHF is expected to trade with a bullish bias above 0.9570. The pair posted a rebound and broke above its 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index is above its neutrality level at 50 and lacks downward momentum.

Federal-funds futures showed Monday that the odds of the central bank increasing interest rates again by December grew to 57% from 41% a week earlier, according to CME Group data. The U.S. dollar is gathering strength along with rallying Treasury yields.

To conclude, as long as 0.570 is not broken, look for a technical rebound with targets at 0.9640 and 0.9660 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot points indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 0.9570, Take Profit: 0.9640

Resistance levels: 0.9640, 0.9660, and 0.9680

Support levels: 0.9545, 0.9510, and 0.9470

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for September 19, 2017

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Our first upside target which we predicted in yesterday's analysis at 151.60 has been hit. The short-term trend remains up following the rebound from the key support level at 150.15 former key resistance. On an intraday basis, the pair is supported by its ascending 20-period and 50-period moving averages.

We suggest long positions above 150.15 with targets at 152.70 and 153.40 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a short position is recommended below 150.15 with the target at 149.35.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 150.15, Take Profit: 152.70

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates long positions; and when it is below the pivot points, it indicates short positions. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 152.70, 153.40, and 154.00

Support levels: 149.35, 148.35, and 147.50

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for September 19, 2017

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NZD/USD is expected to trade with a bullish outlook above the key support level of 0.7245. From a technical point of view, the relative strength index is bullish and is calling for further upside. In addition, the 20-period moving average on a 30-minute chart crossed above the 50-period moving average triggering a bullish signal.

As a consequence, long positions above 0.7245 with targets at 0.7310 and 0.7345 in extension can be considered.

The black line is showing the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which indicates long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines is showing the support levels and the green line is indicating the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7310, 0.7345, and 0.7380

Support levels: 0.7210, 0.7180, and 0.7150

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for September 19, 2017

The Dollar index has bounced from early September and the 91 level towards 92.50 where it got rejected at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the latest decline. Short-term trend is neutral. Price is mainly moving sideways, but daily and weekly trends remain clearly bearish.

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Black line - resistance trend line

The Dollar index is trading inside the 4-hour Kumo (cloud). This implies that trend is neutral. Resistance is between 92.10 and 92.25, by the upper cloud boundary and the trend line. Support is at 91.70-91.75 by the lower Kumo boundary.

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Black lines - megaphone pattern

The oscillators on the weekly chart are oversold and turning upwards. Price has barely managed to bounce however 1.5 point and still remains below the weekly tenkan-sen (red line indicator). Weekly resistance is at 92.60 and next at 96.10. The lower megaphone pattern line is at 90.20 this is where I expect price to eventually go.

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for September 19, 2017

Gold price made new lows very close to our pullback target of $1,300. Short-term trend is bearish. Longer-term trend and my view remain bullish. This is considered a buying opportunity for Gold.

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Black lines - bearish channel

Gold price is trading below the 4-hour Kumo inside the black bearish channel. Price is making lower lows and lower highs on the 4-hour chart. There are signs from the oscillators that we are in oversold territory. Short-term resistance levels for Gold are at $1,319.50, $1,324, $1,329, and $1,334. Support is at $1,300 and $1,290.

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On a daily basis, Gold price is correcting the entire upward move from $1,205. The 38% Fibonacci retracement support is at $1,299. Daily trend remains bullish as price is above the Kumo (cloud). Daily resistance is found at $1,330. A daily close above it will increase the chances of a move towards new highs. I remain longer-term bullish Gold.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/NZD for September 19, 2017

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Wave summary:

We missed our buying opportunity at 1.6250 by only 18 pips. A break above minor resistance at 1.6523 is still needed to confirm that red wave iv has completed, but it is likely to be a question of time before this break is seen and confirms continuation higher towards 1.6763 and possibly even higher to 1.7107.

R3: 1.6633

R2: 1.6570

R1: 1.6523

Pivot: 1.6500

S1: 1.6437

S2: 1.6394

S3: 1.6350

Trading recommendation:

We are looking for a buying opportunity at 1.6355 or upon a break above 1.6523. Stop loss will be placed at 1.6255.

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Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/JPY for September 19, 2017

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Wave summary:

EUR/JPY continues to work its way higher to the 134.80 target. In the short term, minor support at 132.61 should be able to protect the downside for the expected rally to 134.80, from where a correction should be expected before the final rally towards 137.36 to complete wave D.

R3: 134.80

R2: 134.25

R1: 133.85

Pivot: 133.50

S1: 133.12

S2: 132.94

S3: 132.61

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 131.76 we will move our stop higher to 132.55. We will take half profit at 134.50.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Sept 19, 2017

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as ZEW Economic Sentiment, German ZEW Economic Sentiment, and Current Account Balance. The US will also release a series of economic reports such as Import Prices m/m, Housing Starts, Current Account, and Building Permits. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.2017.

Strong Resistance:1.2010.

Original Resistance: 1.1998.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1986.

Target Inner Area: 1.1958.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1930.

Original Support: 1.1918.

Strong Support: 1.1906.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1899.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Sept 19, 2017

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In Asia, today Japan will not release any economic data. However, the US will release some economic reports such as Import Prices m/m, Housing Starts, Current Account, and Building Permits. So there is a probability the USD/JPYpair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance 3: 112.03.

Resistance 2: 111.81.

Resistance 1: 111.59.

Support 1: 111.32.

Support 2: 111.10.

Support 3: 110.88.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for September 19, 2017

EUR/USD: There is short-term neutrality on EUR/USD - although the long-term bias on the market is bullish. The short-term neutrality on the market would end as price goes upwards by about 150 pips or goes downwards by about 150 pips from here.

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USD/CHF: This pair is still consolidating. For a directional movement to start, price would either need to go below the supply line at 0.9500 (staying below it); or price would go above the resistance level at 0.9700, causing a bullish signal to be generated. A movement below the support level at 0.9500 would strengthen the overall bearish outlook.

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GBP/USD: The GBP/USD pair traded lower on September 18 in the context of an uptrend. There is Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, which means a continuous bullish journey. That means the current (shallow) bearish correction is a good opportunity to buy long at better prices, anticipating further bullish movement.

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USD/JPY: The USD/JPY pair went further upwards on Monday, now around the price level at 111.50. The supply levels at 112.00 and 112.50 could be targeted soon. However, it is expected that price would come down before the end of the week, owing to a bearish outlook on JPY pairs for this week.

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EUR/JPY: This currency trading instrument went upwards by another 80 pips on Monday, and it is now testing the supply zone at 133.50. Since the beginning of last week, price has gained about 360 pips and it could gain more pips. On the other hand, a meaningful reversal is expected before the end of this week.

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EUR/JPY testing major resistance, start to sell

Price continues to test major resistance at 133.19 (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance) and we expect a strong reaction from this level to push price down to at least 131.73 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support) once again.

Stochastic (34,3,1) is seeing strong resistance at 96% and we expect a strong reaction from this level to correspondingly push price down.

Sell below 133.19. Stop loss at 133.87. Take profit at 131.73.

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AUD/JPY dropping perfectly as expected, prepare to sell further upon the break of major support

Price has dropped absolutely perfectly from our selling area as expected. We tighten our stop loss to protect our profits. Now we look to sell further when price breaks 88.68 support (Fibonacci retracement, double top confirmation) and we will ride the drop all the way down to 87.91 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).

RSI (34) sees an ascending support line hold it up. Only a break of this ascending support would confirm the drop we're expecting on AUD/JPY.

Sell below 88.68. Stop loss at 89.40. Take profit at 87.91.

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AUD/USD approaching major support, prepare to buy

Price is now approaching major support at 0.7928 (Fibonacci extension, Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support) and we expect a strong bounce above this level to push price up to at least 0.8049 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major support above 4.6% and we expect a strong bounce from this level too.

Buy above 0.7928. Stop loss at 0.7866. Take profit at 0.8049.

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EUR/USD dropped perfectly as expected, remain bearish

Price is dropping perfectly from our selling area. We remain bearish looking to sell below major resistance at 1.1994 (Fibonacci extension, Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) and we expect a further drop from this level to push price down to at least 1.1838 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support, Fibonacci retracement).

Stochastic (55,3,1) is seeing major resistance below 95% where stochastic has good downside potential from.

Sell below 1.1994. Stop loss at 1.2035. Take profit at 1.1838.

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USD/CHF bouncing perfectly, remain bullish for a further rise

Price has bounced off perfectly from our buying area as expected. We remain bullish looking to buy above major support at 0.9578 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support, Fibonacci extension) for a bounce up to at least 0.9675 resistance (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance).

Stochastic (55,3,1) is seeing strong support above 3% where we expect a further rise from.

Buy above 0.9578. Stop loss at 0.9525. Take profit at 0.9675.

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NZD/USD testing major support, prepare for a bounce

Price is now testing major support at 0.7258 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support, Fibonacci extension) and we expect to see a strong bounce above this level to push price up to 0.7311 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major support above 13% where we expect a bounce from that corresponds to the one we're expecting on NZD/USD.

Buy above 0.7258. Stop loss at 0.7237. Take profit at 0.7311.

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Daily analysis of USDX for September 19, 2017

The index still holds the support zone of 91.57 and bulls are trying to gain momentum in order to take the greenback to test the resistance level of 93.09. However, it remains below the 200 SMA on H1 chart and that's why the weakness in the USDX remains as a strong bias in the short term. To the downside, a support can be seen around 90.30.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 93.09 / 94.04

H1 chart's support levels: 91.67 / 90.30

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 91.67, take profit is at 90.30 and stop loss is at 93.04.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for September 19, 2017

The pair has started to correct its cycle from the rebound in the 200 SMA on H1 chart. The resistance zone of 1.3592 is still providing a solid barrier for buyers and one could expect a retracement towards the psychological level of 1.3400. The overall view remains bullish. If that resistance gives up, further gains could be posted around 1.3755.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3592 / 1.3755

H1 chart's support levels: 1.3309 / 1.3209

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.3592, take profit is at 1.3755 and stop loss is at 1.3430.

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Bitcoin Analysis for September 18, 2017

After the impulsive crash of Bitcoin recently, the cryptocurrency is coming back to its original form of climbing up higher to create new higher highs. Though the initial coin offering cancellation news was a big shock for the Bitcoin, currently authorities are trying to fix things up by creating a control over the Bitcoin and overall cryptocurrency market. Basically, the Asian countries like China and India are quite negative about accepting the Bitcoin as a form of exchange whereas recently the Central Bank of India has issued warning regarding the Bitcoin. As Bitcoin is being criticized by the world's biggest banks and financial institutions, the growth is expected to be slower in comparison to August bullish impulsive move but the steady gain is very much expected in the process.

Recently the price has bounced off the Kumo Cloud and currently residing at the edge of breaking above the $4,000 resistance level. If the price breaks above the $4,000 resistance level with a daily close, then the price is expected to progress towards $4,386.80 resistance level in the coming days and later towards $4,500.00. The bearish pressure can be still felt in the market but as the price remains above the support area of $2,617.60-2,867.30 and strong Kumo Cloud, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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Pound defeated a strong opponent

The British pound was marked by the best weekly dynamics against the basket of major world currencies over the past nine years, strengthening against the US dollar by 3% after the Bank of England signaled it was ready to tighten monetary policy. It is interesting to note that the US dollar did not look like a whipping boy either. The reduction of geopolitical risks around North Korea and the growth of the probability of the Fed's monetary restriction against the acceleration of inflation to 1.9% allowed the "dollar" to finish the five-day session in positive territory against the majority of competitors from the G10. The bigger the gains of sterling!

It's one thing when the market pushes the date of the rate hike and then brings it closer, as in the case of the Fed. It is quite another when the chances of tightening monetary policy grow dramatically, as in the case of the Bank of England. Guided by the need to implement its own inflation projections, the regulator made it clear that it was going to raise the repo rate in the near future. And if someone did not believe him, then the speech of Gertjan Vlieghe forced them to do it.

The most serious "dove" of the Committee on Monetary Policy said that the increase in wages, the growth of the world economy, and the household expenditures make it possible to expect the first increase in rates in the next few months. The derivatives market believes that this will happen in November.

The probability of raising the repo rate

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Source: Bloomberg.

When an ardent opponent of monetary restriction speaks the language of the "hawk", it becomes the best driver for currency growth. The pound proved it, having strengthened during the day by 1.5% against the US dollar.

The minutes of the last meeting of the Bank of England and Gertjan Vlieghe proved that the "doves" remained in the minority. Meanwhile, the pound's sensitivity to upcoming releases of macroeconomic statistics should increase. It seems that the BoE is now less worried than before about the problem of reducing real wages. However, if retail sales show a decline in purchasing power, then the problem will remind it of itself. The release of the indicator is scheduled for September 20.

For the US dollar, the key event of the week will be the FOMC meeting. The open market committee can lower inflation forecasts and change the expected trajectory of the federal funds rate, which will affect the long-term outlook for the USD index. The Fed continues to be concerned about the dynamics of personal consumer spending, and the acceleration of the August CPI may eventually turn out to be the usual market noise. It is hardly to be expected that the signal from Janet Yellen and her colleagues about the act of monetary restriction in December will be the reason for buying the "dollar". The futures market thus pawns 59% of the probability that this will happen.

Technically, the bulls managed to achieve a target of 161.8% in the AB = CD pattern very quickly, after which the correction risks increased in the direction of 1.34-1.345. To continue the northern trend to 1.377 (targeting 200% on AB = CD), customers need to update the September maximum.

GBP / USD, daily chart

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/JPY for September 18, 2017

USD/JPY has been impulsively bullish recently after breaking above the resistance of 108.50. The price has been very impulsive and non-volatile with the bullish move, which has engulfed weeks of bearish price action providing a clue of further bullish pressure in the market. Today is a bank holiday in Japan (Respect for the Aged day), which added to the weakness of JPY against USD. This week, Japan's Trade Balance report is to be published; it is expected to show an increase to 0.41T from the previous figure of 0.34T. On the other hand, today the US published its NAHB Housing Market Index report that showed a decrease to 64 from 67 (no changes expected). Still, despite a worse report, USD was quite unbeatable and sustained the dominanted JPY, which signals that the USD is on the way to make a good climb soon. This week is going to be very volatile for USD-based pairs as FOMC Statement and Federal Funds rate report are going to be published, though no remarkable change is expected in the reports, but there is always a possibility of having great volatility with spikes in the market. This weekly close will help to determine the upcoming move in this pair for the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has recently broken above the resistance area of 110.20-60, which has turned into the support area for the upcoming moves on the upside. Currently, the price is expected to show good bullish momentum towards 112.30 and later towards 114.40. However, ahead of the upcoming high-impact economic events, it is expected that the price may retrace to the support area to retest and then bounce back bullishly towards the resistance levels. As the price remains above the support area of 110.20-60 the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for September 18, 2017

EUR/USD has been quite volatile and corrective recently but still been able to hold on the gains and long-term non-volatile bullish trend. There has been no directional bias on the pair right now but the bulls are having an advantage today due to positive eurozone's economic reports. Today, Italian Trade Balance report was published with an increase to 6.56B from the previous figure of 4.50B which was expected to decrease to 3.89B, Final CPI was published unchanged as expected at 1.5%, Final Core CPI was also published unchanged as expected at 1.2%, and German Buba Monthly report was also hawkish in nature showing positive changes in the coming days. On the other hand, today US NAHB Housing Market Index report was published with a worse figure at 64 which was expected to be unchanged at 67. To sum up, in light of upbeat reports from the eurozone EUR sustained the gains which signals that a further bullish price action is on the way. As for the USD, a substantial number of high impact reports are going to be published this week including the FOMC Statement which is expected to create a good amount of volatility in the market this week. The weekly close of this week will surely provide a directional bias of the upcoming long-term view of the pair where EUR is expected to have an upper hand over USD.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently residing above the support level of 1.1900 and the dynamic level of 20 EMA as well. The non-volatile bullish trend is still very intact as the dynamic level and the nearest support level has not been violated by now. As long as the price remains above the 1.1900 with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue further with a target towards 1.2070-1.2140 resistance area.

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